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These NFL power couples dominate the field, entertainment world
Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift could be wed as soon as this week. Here are other partnerships between NFL and celebrity stars.
How 'Bad Santa' brought naughty Billy Bob Thornton onto 'Landman'
If you've ever thought that you'd seen Billy Bob Thornton's Tommy Norris before, you're jolly right. The "Landman" central character is the spiritual cousin to Thornton's infamous role as Willie
‘Paris & Pups’ Producer HappyNest Entertainment Expands Slate With New R.L. Stine Series, ‘Louie and Bear’ Adaptation and Space Camp Franchise (EXCLUSIVE)
HappyNest Entertainment, the producer behind Paris Hilton’s “Paris & Pups” YouTube show, is in early development on several new projects, including a series with “Goosebumps” author R.L. Stine, an ada...
Oklahoma Health Care Authority board approves balanced budget despite funding gaps
Budget cuts and modifications are leaving the state Medicaid agency with "razor-thin margins" as it enters the 2027 fiscal year.
SCOTUS protects girls in sports, upholds biological reality
A trans athlete keeps winning girls' state titles in California. The Supreme Court just made sure 27 other states don't have to allow it.
Supreme Court scraps check on money in politics at request of Vance, GOP
The GOP asked the Supreme Court to scrap a Watergate-era rule preventing donors from bypassing limits on what they can give federal candidates.
Oregon Health Authority agrees to $630,000 settlement with ousted equity director
The sum includes more than $400,000 in back pay that the director would have received if she had remained at the agency until this year.
Wisconsin Badgers to add Culver's logo to uniforms for football, 2 other sports
The Culver's logo will be on Wisconsin's football, men's basketball and men's hockey jerseys as part of an expanded sponsorship deal.
Louisville woman sentenced to federal prison after pool business fraud
Tracy Davenport was sentenced to federal prison after facing charges in connection with defrauding customers from her pool installation business.
Landlord-tenant spat at center of Highland Park's retail losses
Uncharacteristic store closures in popular Highland Park linked to landlord-tenant dispute that's headed to court.
Google's chatty Keep Live and Gmail Live interfaces make first appearance
Google's 'Live' conversational AI is now showing up in Keep and Gmail, letting you chat with your notes and emails directly.
Wauwatosa business calls for lawmakers to save hemp
In November, most hemp in Wisconsin will be illegal. Wisconsin's estimated $700 million-dollar industry will shut down.
Predicting winners for NFL's remaining QB competitions: Who wins starting gigs?
Five NFL teams are set to enter training camp with quarterback competitions lingering. Who will emerge as QB1 in each battle?
Expelled from Neptune HS, Harvard-trained doctor now NYC health chief
Dr. Alister Martin faced unusual obstacles on his path to becoming New York City health commissioner, getting expelled from Neptune High School.
Vote for the Freep Buffalo Wild Wings Boys Prep Athlete of the Season
Five players who were high vote getters from the 2025-26 MHSAA season are finalists for the Freep Buffalo Wild Wings Boys Prep Athlete of the Season.
Is this Central Jersey shopping center proving malls are not dead?
Blue Star Shopping Center in Watchung sees a 40% increase in annual visitors as new restaurants, entertainment venues and retailers join the lineup.
LincolnFest was staged for the first time 45 years ago. A look back in photos
Featuring national music acts, unique contests and copious amounts of beer, LincolnFest packed a punch during its run from 1981 to 1993.
Google Play Store is getting faster everywhere, from your Android phone to your car's dashboard
Google Play Store is becoming faster across phones, tablets, TV, Wear OS, and Android Auto, and receiving a bunch of new Store features.
Samsung hints the Galaxy Ring 2 could do something no Galaxy wearable has done before
A senior Samsung executive has revealed that the next-generation Galaxy Ring will bring a promising compatibility upgrade.
Newsom signs bill to give judges more power to deny mental health diversion
California Gov. Gavin Newsom has signed a bill to overhaul the state's mental health diversion program. Assembly Bill 46, authored by Stephanie Nguyen, D-Elk Grove, addresses concerns about public safety and accountability.
Apple's biggest leak in years shows the iPhone 18 Pro surviving a drop test
A massive iPhone 18 Pro leak includes photos and videos of Apple's upcoming flagship undergoing internal durability testing.
John Roberts fought for decades to get rid of the 1935 precedent that had limited a president’s firing authority
For more than 40 years, since his service as a young Reagan administration lawyer, Chief Justice John Roberts has pressed for an exceptionally powerful US president, one who could fire the heads of independent agencies at any time.
Fish oil supplements no match for Alzheimer's risk, new study finds
A new study from the Keck School of Medicine at USC found a revelation regarding fish oil supplements. Here's the researchers' findings.
From mail voting to firings, SCOTUS verdict on Trump agenda is mixed
The Supreme Court dealt the Trump agenda major blows on economic regulation and mail-in voting, but also expanded Trump's power over federal agencies.
How Mississippi reacted to the Supreme Court mail-in ballot ruling
In a rare move out of lockstep with President Trump, the U.S. Supreme Court backed Mississippi's law counting mail-in ballots after Election Day.
NM U.S. Rep. Vasquez, a Democrat, urges state Health Care Authority to bring down SNAP error rate
U.S. Rep. Vasquez (D-N.M.) sent a letter Friday chiding NM leaders for errors administering the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.
Conservatives revolt after Trump-appointed Barrett joins liberals in ‘shockingly wrong’ mail ballot ruling
Amy Coney Barrett faces conservative backlash after authoring the 5-4 Supreme Court ruling allowing mail-in ballots received after Election Day.
ScottsMiracle-Gro names new CEO as longtime leader exits
The Marysville-based national lawn and garden manufacturer has announced some big leadership changes, effective immediately.
Supreme Court: Trump may fire heads of independent agencies, but not the Federal Reserve
The court's conservatives said the president had the authority to remove all officials who wield executive authority, even if the agency officials had fixed terms set by law.
Supreme Court rules MSU economist Lisa Cook can remain as Fed governor
The Trump administration sought to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook amid a push to get the U.S. independent central bank to lower interest rates.
In loss for Trump, Supreme Court keeps Lisa Cook at the Fed
The decision was a loss for Trump at the Supreme Court, which previously rejected the sweeping tariffs that were at the center of his economic policy.
Expanding pharmacists’ authority is about healthcare
Alaska’s passage of House Bill 195 marks a practical and overdue step toward improving access to healthcare, especially in a state where geography alone can turn a minor illness into
Biden's illegal immigration surge caused higher rent and home prices, Fed study finds
A Federal Reserve working paper finds unauthorized immigration during the Biden administration drove up home prices by 2.2% and rents by 1.4%.
For Nancy Pelosi, good-bye Congress. Hello, Pelosi Democracy Institute
The first female speaker of the House will be co-teaching a course on Congress at UC Berkeley's new institute, among other things.
India’s Yash Raj Films Backs Rusk Media in Vertical Entertainment Push (Exclusive)
IMDb, the world's most popular and authoritative source for movie, TV and celebrity content.
How South Dakota schools are shifting to 'science of reading'
South Dakota is retraining teachers in the 'science of reading' to help students master foundational skills. Here’s how.
Danny White earns big bonus for Tennessee bowl, NCAA tournament toward $3.3M pay
Tennessee athletics director Danny White earned $577,500 in annual bonuses to push his total compensation past $3 million as one of the highest paid ADs in the country.
How an under-the-radar GOP official is shaping local voting plans in North Carolina
After Republicans shifted key election authorities to State Auditor Dave Boliek, Democrats and voting rights activists have criticized his involvement in early voting site discussions.
Framingham Baking Co. workers 'couldn't let it go.' What they did next
Two former Framingham Baking Company kitchen workers have started their own baking business.
The strangest transfer story of 2026 starts with a loophole
By entering the portal as a track athlete, he unlocked a path most football players never consider.
Notable Rutgers grads and former students
Some notable Rutgers alumni include James Gandolfini, Chris Christie, Eric LaGrand and more.
House committee advances radiology-backed legislation to curb prior authorization
The Improving Seniors’ Timely Access to Care Act seeks to streamline the “often cumbersome and time-consuming” task of approving requests for medical imaging in Medicare Advantage.
These Michigan businesses are finding a silver lining with tariffs
Resale and salvage retailers are taking advantage of a circular, domestic supply chain as shoppers shift to bargain-hunting and buying local.
Resale boutique thrives amid tariffs
At Le Shoppe Modern in Keego Harbor, shoppers can browse art, vintage pottery, lamps, furniture and more at prices ranging from $50 to $500,000.
Choose central Ohio's boys high school Athlete of the Year for 2025-26
Dispatch.com readers can choose central Ohio's boys Athlete of the Year. You have until 4 p.m. July 3 to vote.
Pensacola Black-owned business show off goods during Black Business Expo
Check out the goods and services black-owned business had to offer during the Black Business Expo at Pensacola's DeVillier's Square Sunday.
Photos from start of Sunday's final Memorial Health Championship round
The final round of the Korn Ferry Tour's Memorial Health Championship was played on Sunday at Panther Creek. See the best images from the day.
Former local star B.J. Daniels advocates for mental health awareness
Former Lincoln and NFL standout B.J. Daniels turns personal struggles into a message of hope for athletes everywhere.
After trying a Google TV projector, I may never buy another TV ever again
After spending a few weeks with a Google TV projector, I think I may be done buying actual TVs for good. Here's what changed.
Michigan GOP primary for governor sees fierce fights but little debate
Michigan's primary for governor shows Republican unity on a policy agenda even as candidates fight over their loyalty to President Donald Trump.
Dispatch reporter Emma Wozniak covers real estate development, business
From lawsuits to high-rises to market trends, here's how Emma Wozniak covers real estate and business news in Columbus.
The Presidential Prayer Team
Each day, we invite you to join us in prayer for our national leaders. As mandated by 1 Timothy 2:1-2, we encourage prayer for those in positions of authority.
Here are June business openings, closings and what's coming to Abilene
Abilene saw business changes in June. See the month's new openings, re-openings, and grand restaurant transformations.
Delaware's Most Influential and Inspiring in small business for 2026
Meet eight Delawareans making the list for Delaware Online/The News Journal's Most Influential & Inspiring in small business for 2026.
Four things to know from Neshoba County Fair political speaking
Here are some of the highlights from the political speeches at the Neshoba County Fair and developments Mississippians can expect in the coming months.
Central Mass. by the Numbers, Sunday, June 28
A look at business news in Central Mass. over the past week.
Alex McBratney: The boy from Whithorn among the scientific elite
Alex McBratney has come a long way from southern Scotland to become a fellow of the Royal Society.
Alex McBratney: The boy from Whithorn among the scientific elite
Alex McBratney has come a long way from southern Scotland to become a fellow of the Royal Society.
Our picks for the best things to do in Cincinnati this week, June 29-July 5
If you're wanting to see some fireworks this week, we've got you covered. Find an event in your community to celebrate Independence Day.
Q&A: Mike Rogers on the Iran deal, weaponization fund, bridge politics
As Democrats beat one another up in a primary, GOP's Mike Rogers says his second bid for Senate is "night and day" over where he stood two years ago
Tony Brown, trailblazing journalist, TV talk show, dies at 93
"Tony Brown’s Journal," which ran on PBS for nearly four decades, provided a national platform for frank discussions on race, politics, and culture.
MS Comic Con 2026: cosplayers, celebrities and fans unite to celebrate beloved characters
Attendees decked out in costumes and homemade props from their favorite TV shows and movies gathered at the Mississippi Trade Mart for Comic Con 2026
Photo gallery | Day 3 of Memorial Health Championship at Panther Creek
See some of the most interesting images from the third round of the Korn Ferry Tour's Memorial Health Championship at Panther Creek from Saturday.
See the fun at the 2026 Boone County Fair
See Kentucky residents embrace the rainy weather at the 2026 Boone County Fair. The fair also included a monster truck show.
Laurel: Happy Fourth of July!
In Brian Nelson's Laurel cartoon, our girl enjoys a particular show during a Fourth of July fireworks celebration in Worcester.
Don't break the tech tools small businesses use to compete
Forcing companies to split up their integrated services would increase costs and headaches for businesses like mine, writes Andrea Ramker.
Church pickles in dry storage, warm fish in restaurant inspections
See scores from local Lane County eateries in this week's write-up of restaurant inspections.
Lawsuits filed against Pharr immigration-related business after filing unauthorized asylum claims
Two families have filed lawsuits against Pharr-based Ferrer Public Services, claiming the business filed unauthorized asylum applications that put their immigration status at risk.
As America fights over food, this woman speaks for the unheard
Vanessa Rissetto, a dietician and \
Meet a scientist tracking invasive reptiles, and even their parasites
An insider's look at Florida’s war on invaders: the giant snakes, egg-eating predators and parasites spreading through the Everglades.
Trump-endorsed candidates hold nearly perfect record in GOP primaries
No modern president wields party influence the way Donald Trump does, experts say, but it could be costly to his party in the 2026 midterms.
ICE mask ban takes effect in N.Y. amid dueling lawsuits and a race for governor
The Trump administration’s lawsuit argues that states do not have the authority to regulate the federal government’s operations.
Author Meg Cabot says she's read the 'Princess Diaries 3' script 'and it was amazing'
Meg Cabot, author of the 'Princess Diaries' book series, says she's read the script for 'The Princess Diaries 3' starring Anne Hathaway and it's 'amazing.'
NY restaurant inspections: Search health code violations by restaurant
Search New York restaurant inspection reports to see if your favorite local dining spots are meeting safety standards.
3 flagship Android phones are cheaper now than they were on day one of Prime Day, but not for long
Prime Day is nearly over, but these three flagship Android phone deals have actually improved since the sale started.
The impact of club sports on student experience in higher education
Authors: Ryan Savitz1, Divit Gupta2, Jared Ward3, Andrew Bjorkelo1 1Neumann University 2Conestoga High School 3Brigham Young University Corresponding Author: Ryan Savitz savitzr@neumann.edu …
Tired of long waits? Mochi Health offers virtual care starting at $39
Mochi Health now offers full-service virtual care with unlimited visits, flexible pharmacy options and plans starting as low as $39.
Air-conditioning becomes political amid sweltering Europe heatwave
Much of western Europe baked under a “heat dome” as temperatures soar. Authorities warn that the extreme conditions could endanger lives across countries, many of which have limited air conditioning, a topic of which has left the people of Paris divided.
Who plays in the World Cup today, June 26?
Here's your daily rundown on Philadelphia's Fan Festival hours and entertainment.
Tanzania Bans Political Rallies, Bracing for Gen-Z Protests
Tanzania’s authorities banned political rallies and placed the country on high alert for youth-led protests against increased authoritarianism.
Medical miracles that changed how we treat disease
We've come a long way since \
Earthquake shifts political ground for Venezuelan leader Delcy Rodriguez
Venezuela's strongest earthquake in over a century is the biggest challenge to Delcy Rodriguez's leadership but could also allow the interim president to stamp her authority on a fractured government.
Chairman Guthrie, Health Vice Chair Harshbarger, Congresswoman Miller-Meeks Lead Site Visit to Iowa Hospitals to Highlight Benefits of the Rural Health Transformation Program
The Committee on Energy and Commerce is the oldest standing legislative committee in the U.S. House of Representatives and is vested with the broadest jurisdiction of any congressional authorizing committee.
Sweden and WHO launch new long-term initiative to transform Ukraine’s health system
WHO and the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida) have launched a new multi-year cooperation project to support the long-term recovery and transformation of Ukraine’s health system. The new project, “Ukraine’s Health System Transformation Initiative: Strengthening Health Governance, Health Financing and Service Delivery for Long-Term Recovery”, was launched at the Ukraine Recovery Conference 2026 in Gdansk, Poland on 26 June, and will run from June 2026 to 2029. Sweden will contribute approximately US$ 26 million (240 million Swedish krona) to support this project. This contribution forms part of Sweden’s broader support to Ukraine through the Team Europe approach, which brings together the European Union, its Member States, and key partners such as the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Enlargement and Eastern Neighbourhood and Enabel, and WHO as lead health agency, to support Ukraine’s recovery, reform agenda and European integration.“Ukraine’s health recovery cannot be measured only by what is rebuilt, but by whether people can count on the health system when they need it most. The scale of the task is immense, with health reconstruction and modernization needs estimated at US$ 19.4 billion over the next decade. Sweden’s US$ 26 million contribution to Ukraine’s Health System Transformation Initiative is a timely investment in the institutions, financing and services that will support Ukraine’s long-term recovery and European integration. WHO remains a trusted partner of the Government of Ukraine in advancing this process. I am deeply grateful to Sweden for its consistent support and partnership,” said Dr Hans Henri P. Kluge, WHO Regional Director for Europe. More than 4 years of war have placed unprecedented pressure on Ukraine’s health system, creating 3 interconnected challenges. The first is responding to the immediate consequences of the war and the urgent health needs of the population. The second is recovering and modernizing health services today. The third is continuing reforms and aligning the health system with European standards in the context of Ukraine’s future accession to the European Union. The war has led to large-scale population displacement, an increasing need for trauma care and rehabilitation, and shortages of health workers. High out-of-pocket payments in Ukraine make access to health services more difficult. Around 46% of total health expenditure is paid directly by individuals, placing a significant financial burden on many households and underscoring the need for reforms in health financing. Older people, persons with disabilities, women, children and veterans continue to face the greatest difficulties in accessing health services. “Ukraine is demonstrating that health system transformation can continue even during war. Ukraine is also continuing to align its health system with European norms and standards. WHO is committed to supporting Ukraine on this journey. We provide technical support, help coordinate partners’ efforts and support the institutional changes needed to strengthen the system. We are grateful to Sweden for its support. Through this partnership, we can help Ukraine build a more resilient, accessible and people-centred health system,” said Dr Jarno Habicht, WHO Representative in Ukraine. About the Health System Transformation InitiativeThe new initiative will support Ukraine through 3 interconnected areas: strengthening governance and coordination of health sector reforms through more inclusive coordination platforms and structured policy dialogue; transforming service delivery by reinforcing a primary health care-centred model that integrates family medicine, nursing and midwifery; and improving financial sustainability by supporting reforms that ensure the long-term viability of the national health system and reduce out-of-pocket payments for households. Overall, these reforms are expected to make the health system more coherent and easier to navigate, improve the quality and continuity of care, and ensure more equitable access to services, particularly for those who need them most. They will also support Ukraine’s progress towards a more modern health system aligned with European standards. “We are convinced that long-term recovery is not possible without strong, high-quality, person-centred health services that are accessible to everyone. Our partnership with WHO is designed to support deep and lasting systemic changes. Investments in human capital especially autonomous midwives, whose role for maternal, newborn and adolescent sexual and reproductive health cannot be understated, stronger governance, digital transformation and the financial sustainability of the health system are investments in Ukraine’s future. We are proud to support this process,” said Malin Perhult, the Head of the Ukraine Unit at Sida. Focus throughout implementation will be given to the most vulnerable population groups, including older people, women and children, and persons with disabilities, who have been affected by the war and face greater health-care needs. The initiative will be implemented in close cooperation with the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, the National Health Service of Ukraine, the Public Health Centre of Ukraine, regional authorities and international partners. This project will help Ukraine move towards a system where everyone can access the health care they need. It will strengthen primary care, make the health finance system more stable and predictable, and reduce the out-of-pocket costs that Ukrainians face when using health services. As a result, the Ukrainian health system will become more aligned with European standards and more sustainable in the long run.
St. Norbert, FVTC partner to make business degree transfer 'seamless'
St. Norbert and Fox Valley Technical College are joining forces to make getting a bachelor's in business at SNC easier.
Louisville coaches can't afford to stay sidelined amid NCAA changes
The NCAA has brought college sports into instability, which is why coaches like Louisville's Jeff Brohm and Pat Kelsey have to be activists.
Gay Street businesses cope with Capital Line construction
The Capital Line is meant to be transformative for Downtown. But right now it's presenting challenges for businesses.
Fitbit Air's first update is already rolling out, and it could finally fix its biggest annoyance
Google has started rolling out the Fitbit Air's first firmware update since launch. This update promises bug fixes and improvements.
Kenny Klein, former longtime Louisville Athletics administrator, dies
Kenny Klein, a former Louisville Athletics administrator of 39 years who worked more than 1,300 straight men's basketball games, has died at age 65.
Caitlin Clark made the WNBA bigger. It’s still playing small
The league’s paltry one-game suspension of Alyssa Thomas after her fist to Caitlin Clark's throat barely begins to address the problem.
Monkey Business: Wild rhesus macaque spotted at Mount Dora hotel
A wild rhesus macaque was spotted at the historic Lakeside Inn in Mount Dora, Florida, spending about 45 minutes roaming the property and attracting attention from guests and staff. The hotel and local businesses responded with humorous, monkey-themed social media content, engaging the community. Wildlife officials cautioned the public not to approach or feed wild monkeys due to potential health risks and encouraged reporting sightings to authorities. The monkey has not returned to the hotel but has been seen elsewhere in downtown Mount Dora.
Granger family pledges largest gift in history of UM-Health Sparrow
The Granger family has pledged the largest gift in University of Michigan Health-Sparrow history for a new behavioral health hospital.
Michigan president has strong words for college sports after Dusty May exit
Michigan president Domenico Grasso spoke with Dusty May and said he cited the transfer portal and uncertainty about NIL as reasons for his departure.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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