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Community and stamps: Tillinghast Postal and Business Center finds its niche
LA CONNER — In a large yellow farmhouse close to the center of La Conner, a colorful postal and business shop bedecked with flags is finding its niche by building
Former Biden WH Press Secretary on SCOTUS ruling ending temporary protected status program: ‘It’s going to be disastrous’
Tulare County group launches scholarship for STEM, business students
The program is still in its early stages, but organizers say they're prepared to launch the scholarships in the spring.
Sewer overflow from Haverhill leaves businesses scrambling as several Massachusetts beaches close
Netflix and Superheroes Are Having a Rough Stretch on Streaming....
(Welcome to my weekly streaming ratings report, the single best guide to what’s popular in streaming TV and what isn’t. I’m the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a former streaming executive who now analyzes business strategy in the entertainment industry. If you were forwarded this email, please subscribe to get these insights each week.) I have a quick prediction before we start today’s article: You might see this data in future news articles. Not my specific charts or analysis, but the core trend I’ve been monitoring—Netflix is having a lackluster Q2—will become inescapable. Often, folks want to know “What does the data say?” Well, that’s what it says. I haven’t seen this analysis hit the trades really yet, but I have a feeling some other outlets are going to start making this case soon. Remember, you read it here first. You probably have read about the problems facing superhero films at the box office this weekend. Well, this week, I explore whether superheroes are dying on TV as well! And the data says: definitely maybe! We have a lot to cover in today’s Streaming Ratings Report, which covers the two weeks of 18-May and 25-May. Today, I’m just looking at TV, like Netflix’s disappointing Q2, superhero shows underwhelming, a few TV shows dropping off the charts, The Pitt finally ending its epic run on the viewership charts (and whether “view counts” change its status as one of the biggest shows of all time), all the flops, bombs and misses, and a whole lot more. Tomorrow, I’ve got a great rundown of the film side of things. Let’s dive right in! (Reminder: The streaming ratings report focuses on the U.S. market and compiles data from Nielsen’s weekly top ten viewership ranks, Luminate’s Top Ten Data, Showlabs, TV Time trend data, Samba TV household viewership, company datecdotes, Netflix hours viewed data, Google Trends, and IMDb to determine the most popular content. While most data points are current, Nielsen’s data covers the weeks of May 18th to May 31st, 2026. You can find a link to my terminology here.) Subscribe Television - Netflix’s Q2 Slump Continues Having analyzed streaming ratings for going on half a decade, I have learned to trust my gut, but I’m always relieved when I can find actual data to back it up. For example, after a string of very popular shows like Stranger Things, Bridgerton, The Lincoln Lawyer and The Night Agent came out, week after week, in January and February, my gut wondered if Netflix had enough new and returning TV shows to sustain them throughout the year. Since then, Netflix’s post-March slate of shows has not impressed me. This week seemed to feature a potential new hit, but then, like a classic Duffer Bros. TV show, there was a twist. I speak of The Boroughs, Netflix’s latest (and last) Duffer Bros. produced show. The pitch is “Stranger Things with older actors”. And it topped the Nielsen charts: With just two weeks of viewership, The Boroughs would have been a top 25 debut show last year: But here’s the twist: Netflix has already cancelled The Boroughs! What happened? Likely a few things. First, the show didn’t do as well globally as it did in the US. As What’s on Netflix showed, it lagged behind several other shows that got cancelled. Second, its completion rate was likely low; after an initial burst of interest, it quickly dropped off on the Samba TV and Luminate charts. Third, the Duffer Bros. left Netflix for Paramount, and that may have factored into Netflix’s decision here. (Though I tend to believe that if a show is doing well, Netflix would have kept greenlighting seasons.) Still, just because I can explain why Netflix may have cancelled this show doesn’t mean I’m justifying it. In particular, as I’ve noted before, Netflix is losing a lot of their bigger shows as they reach their natural ends, and they need to replace those shows. This show had the hallmarks of a big new genre show, and it’s their biggest hit of the last few months (in the US at least), but now it’s done. Netflix’s other show this week—The Four Seasons, the second season of the “hit” show from last year—definitely disappointed. Its sophomore season had about half the viewership of the first, only 12.7 million hours. It also only had a two week run on Samba TV, and its numbers were all down on Luminate too. In other words, even with two successes, the Q2 slump for Netflix looks real: I could add to the list of disappointments: Both Lord of the Files and Man on Fire had short runs on the Nielsen charts. Running Point’s sophomore season also opened to about half its viewership, similar to The Four Seasons. A Good Girl’s Guide to Murder’s second season—see below—didn’t even make any of the three viewership charts I track, unlike the first season. Netflix is absolutely having a dismal second three months of 2026. If this Nielsen data is any indication, and I think it is, I think this will show up in Netflix’s engagement report, and maybe even their financial outcomes. And the rest of June doesn’t look much better. We have two hit shows coming back—Sweet Magnolias, one of their quietest big shows, and Avatar: The Last Airbender, a big hit for them in 2024—but the other big swings are limited series crime thrillers i.e. no future season potential. Like I said above, sometimes when I uncover a juicy nugget like this, other outlets end up writing very similar articles mimicking the data without credit. We’ll see if that happens this time! Share Television - The State of Superhero Shows on Streaming When I first heard the pitch for Spider-Noir—a Sony TV show on Prime Video that binge-released eight episodes first on MGM+ then on Prime Video two days later—I had my doubts. It’s a live-action Spider-Man show set in the 1930s, starring Nicholas Cage, based on a cameo of a character in Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. No, seriously, that’s the pitch. That could either go terrifically well or horribly wrong. Great because, Spider-Man. He’s the biggest superhero we have. I’ve seen tracking numbers that put the new _Spider-Man: Brand New Da_y as the blockbuster of the year and initial pre-sales back that up. And yet this Spider-Noir pitch feels very esoteric. (Also, the eight-episode binge release feels very “Amazon copying Netflix” again.) So what’s the data say? And what does this say about the future of superhero shows?
The Supreme Court handed Trump an election case defeat. Is a bigger win for him coming?
The Supreme Court’s ruling letting more than a dozen states keep their post-election grace periods for mail ballots is a defeat for President Donald Trump and Republicans ahead of the midterms, but the GOP can still capture significant victories in major election-related cases coming farther down the pipeline.
How fear of a market meltdown may have quietly shaped the Supreme Court’s ruling to protect Fed independence
We’re still writing p3ri0d
What algorithmic suppression of women’s health content is actually costing us.
OSU rolls to most lopsided all-sports Bedlam Series win on record
STILLWATER – For the sixth time in the last seven years and for the 11th time in the last 13 years, Oklahoma State has won the all-sports Bedlam Series over ...
DeAndre Hopkins still sounds like perfect Bengals signing
DeAndre Hopkins wants to play for a contender and has mentioned the Bengals in the past.
🎧 When belief returned: Episode five of new Coventry documentary
The relegation from League One to the bottom tier of English football starts episode five of Back Where We Belong. Under Mark Robins, Coventry City found their identity and stability on the pitch, with fans finding joy in small and shared moments. With Wasps still owning the Ricoh Arena, the Sky Blues were forced to ground-share with Birmingham City at St Andrew's.
Why Atlanta Braves are Suddenly in Trouble in NL East
Will the Braves still win the NL East?
Meaningful Outcomes Determine the Winners of the Health AI Race
Global investment in healthcare AI exceeded $18 billion in 2025, yet health systems still lack a shared understanding of the outcomes that investment should deliver. This paper argues that success in the health AI race will be determined not by technological sophistication but by which systems first identify and pursue the outcomes that matter most to patients, professionals and health systems. Without a shared language for defining and measuring what healthcare AI should deliver, systems risk optimizing for what is easiest to count rather than what matters most. This paper provides a framework for ensuring AI investment translates into real value for healthcare systems and the populations they serve.
NI health: Resident doctors begin strike action over pay
The BMA said there will "undoubtedly be cancellation of operations, outpatient appointments and elective care" but "patient safety will still be prioritised".
Stephen Eustáquio's late goal sends Canada to the World Cup Round of 16 in a 1-0 win over South Africa
Canada's World Cup run is still alive.
CD Projekt is rebranding as CD Projekt Red, but confusingly, CD Projekt Red is still CD Projekt Red
CD Projekt has rebranded itself as CD Projekt Red – or CD Projekt Red Spółka Akcyjna, to be precise.
Microbusinesses celebrate New York state’s first cannabis showcase
Five years since the legalization of recreational marijuana in New York state, business owners and growers are still struggling and navigating their way through the complicated legal status and policies surrounding the cannabis industry.
Summer Blockbuster Entertainment
“It’s summertime and the living is easy,” those words sung by Ella Fitzgerald in the 1960s might not ring as true in 2026, but summertime should still be the time […]
World Cup: the group-stage disappointments 🥶
They could still wake up... or not.This Sunday evening at 9 p.m., the knockout stage of the 2026 World Cup begins with the first round-of-32 match between Canada and South Africa.The group stage has n...
GOP Sen. Tillis on Acting AG Blanche: ‘If there’s even a whiff of a lack of independence, then that could influence my vote’
Brain activity under anesthesia challenges what we know about consciousness
The unconscious brain appears to be far more capable than scientists once believed. Researchers found that patients under general anesthesia could still process language at a sophisticated level, distinguishing nouns, verbs, and adjectives while listening to stories. Even more remarkably, neural activity showed signs of predicting upcoming words before they were heard. The results challenge traditional ideas about consciousness and hint at new possibilities for brain-computer interfaces.
My 2 sons moved back in with me; my expenses have gone up
My two sons still live with me so they can save on housing costs. That means my expenses have gone up, like electricity and grocery budgets.
🥜 Still nutty after 50 years
Center City snack shop Nuts To You marks 50 years in business and looks to TikTok for sustained growth. Plus: Olney update here TK, and we compare Revolutionary history in Philly vs Boston.
Read Michener’s ‘Centennial’
If you’ve been reading my columns, you’ve noticed I’m basically illiterate. I blame my dyslexia and public education, but my Olympic-level laziness could be the driving factor. Anyway, I basically can’t read (and, still, I graduated from CU Boulder, so another endorsement of public higher education). So, for me to recommend a book is like […]
Two years after their last debate, Biden jabs at Trump: ‘What a loser’
As he rallied Maryland Democrats at a state party fundraiser Saturday night, former President Joe Biden decried the actions of the man who succeeded him in the White House, painting him as vain and corrupt.
Private Selection chicken breast product target of health alert
The U.S. Department of Agriculture wants people who may have purchased a variety of Private Selection raw boneless chicken breasts to check their freezers or refrigerators in case they still have them.
Private Selection chicken breast product target of health alert
The U.S. Department of Agriculture wants people who may have purchased a variety of Private Selection raw boneless chicken breasts to check their freezers or refrigerators in case they still have them.
78 days till Arizona Cardinals' opener: Remembering the 1978 season
With 78 days until the Arizona Cardinals' 2026 opener, let's look back at their 1978 season.
While Isaac could still re-sign with Orlando, he will …
While Isaac could still re-sign with Orlando, he will …
Lakers Have Reportedly Not Offered LeBron James a Contract Yet
With free agency set to officially open on June 30, the Los Angeles Lakers still have not put a contract offer in front of their 41-year-old star.
Nintendo issues June 2026 backwards compatibility fixes for Switch games on Switch 2, full list
Another set of backwards compatibility fixes for Nintendo Switch games on Switch 2 are now available. There aren’t as many heavy hitters this time around, but it’s still a solid batch. Shovel Knight: Treasure Trove is the biggest name out of the bunch – previously, Nintendo said that players may encounter audio issues in some areas. The full list of...
UNC Health Talk: Why do I still get pimples?
Are you asking why you get acne well past puberty? Dermatologist Margaret Coates has the do's and dont's for treating adult acne.
Star Wars Eclipse "literally cannot be finished" if layoffs go through, its devs reportedly say
"We absolutely need the 115 people who have been inactive (or almost) for a month already."
Amazon Prime Day Is Over, but Our Editors Found 131+ Best Deals Still Live
We don’t know how long these discounts will last, so if something catches your eye, add to cart and checkout ASAP.
Star Wars Eclipse in danger of cancelation, claim striking Quantic Dream developers
Workers protested in Paris over proposed layoffs at the Star Wars Eclipse studio…
Inside the room where the smart home industry is still betting on Matter
It still Matters.
Florida cases echo Italy’s gangmaster economy
Legal labor systems can still become traps for powerless workers.
Pro-Israel influencers criticize Vance, but evangelicals remain open to him
Despite attacks from some conservatives, a heavily pro-Israel crowd still has warm words for Vance, with many saying they could pick him as the party’s nominee.
No debut, but loud cheers: Belfast crowd shows love for Vaibhav Sooryavanshi
Teenage sensation Vaibhav Sooryavanshi's India debut is still pending, but the focus shifted to Ireland's historic 34-run victory in the first T20I. Despite the loss, Shreyas Iyer vowed a strong comeback. Ireland's debutants impressed, with Jai Moondra and Matt Hollard making immediate impacts, while Abhishek Sharma's quickfire fifty wasn't enough for India.
Best Prime Day Tablet Deals From Apple, Samsung and TCL
Tons of Apple and Android models are still on sale, but these holdover bargains are selling out fast.
Burglars steal from Grand Forks business, cancer fundraiser
The owner of An Elegant Affair says burglars stole merchandise, cash and donations collected for an employee battling cancer.
House Republican reacts to changing politics under Trump
Republican Rep. Dusty Johnson spoke to NBC News' Garrett Haake about his recent loss in the primary to become the governor of South Dakota, and how he feels about the current political environment under President Trump.
EAST TEXAS POLITICS: Railroad commissioner, ag commissioner candidate clash on data centers
Texas Railroad Commissioner Wayne Christian, a Republican, and Democratic nominee for Texas Agriculture Commissioner Clayton Tucker, who hold opposing views on data centers, talked with Blake Holland for this week’s edition of East Texas Politics on East Texas Now. .
World Cup 2026 Round of 32 tracker: Who’s qualified, who’s eliminated and who’s still alive
His Fortune’s From the Trash Business. His Basquiats Are Priceless.
In the last few years, waste-management billionaire Patrick Dovigi has become one of the biggest art collectors on the scene. But he’s still under the radar—maybe the shots fired on his home have something to do with that.
‘If you’re running in a Democratic primary, you ought to be a Democrat’: Sen. Coons reacts to NYC primary results
Inside the courtroom where Trump’s former adviser-turned-critic John Bolton just pleaded guilty
Stillwater’s early start for school is big challenge for football, fall sports
Learn why Stillwater is starting early and how teams are trying to make adjustments.
Buckingham Palace without the king? Charles reveals plans for landmark's future
Buckingham Palace is having a monumental glow up, but King Charles III and Queen Camilla still don't want to live there.
Thunder reportedly trade Isaiah Joe to Pistons for two second-round draft picks
Isaiah Joe still has two years left on his contract.
University of Tennessee at Martin offers 4 day science camp for rising 6th to 8th graders
The University of Tennessee at Martin still has availability for their Meteorology and Agricultural Camp on June 29 through July 2.
Survey: Most Life Science Labs Piloting AI, Few in Production
A survey finds only 5% of labs use AI in production, with most still piloting the tech and citing integration, data quality as barriers.
Astronomers trace a ghostly cosmic particle to distant ‘Shadow Blaster’ galaxy
Scientists still don’t know where ghostly particles called neutrinos originate. A distant galaxy could be a potential source.
‘Faces Of Death’ To Close Edinburgh’s Midnight Madness Strand
'Faces Of Death' will be the closing title of Edinburgh’s Midnight Madness strand.
What New York’s primary upheaval means for Democrats: Join Friday’s Whole Hog
Democrats are still feeling the political aftershocks of New York’s primaries on Tuesday night, including New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani-backed victories. What could it signal for the party? Pl…
New study suggests health damage from exposure to Ohio toxic train spill
Research finds immune systems still ‘responding to toxic chemical exposures’ related to East Palestine derailment
ConcernedApe Explains Why He's Shown So Little Of Haunted Chocolatier: 'I Would Rather Serve A Fully Baked Bread'
Eric Barone posted his first blog update in six months yesterday to reassure fans he's still hard at work.
These 15+ award-winning gadgets are on sale for Prime Day - but we'd pay full price
Editor-approved tech is still on sale during Amazon's Prime Day sale - but don't wait much longer to shop.
Commitment season looming as Ohio State staff awaits
The month of June has been a grind for Ohio State’s coaching staff. Position camps, recruiting visits, and still prioritizing their current roster, the Buckeyes have had zero time off… and that will soon change. Ryan Day and company set to be on vacation in the coming days for a well deserved break, that doesn’t […]
Intel’s Chip Business Shows Signs of Life After Years of Struggle
It is the centerpiece of President Trump’s drive to make more chips in the United States, but the company still has a long way to go before it can be called a complete turnaround.
Phillies’ Byron Buxton rumor won’t come true, but another trade with Twins still makes sense
Who else could the Phillies land?
NBA fans troll Victor Wembanyama after MVP chants in France
Victor Wembanyama is back in France after leading the San Antonio Spurs to the NBA Finals. While his team failed to win the championship, he still received a lot of love from his countrymen. The 7-foot-4 center entered a club…
Health concerns still loom after LAFD knocks down Boyle Heights warehouse fire
Caitlin Clark made the WNBA bigger. It’s still playing small
The league’s paltry one-game suspension of Alyssa Thomas after her fist to Caitlin Clark's throat barely begins to address the problem.
M5 Ultra Mac Studio Could Launch in 2026 With Up to 768GB of RAM
Despite price increases across the Mac line, Apple is still planning to release a new Mac Studio as soon as this year, reports Bloomberg. Apple plans to introduce a new M5 Ultra chip as the final option in the M5 family before it transitions to the M6, M7, M7 Pro, and M7 Max. The M5 Ultra will come in a new version of the Mac Studio, which hasn't been updated since March 2025.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
Microsoft adds another year to Windows 10 extended update program
About a quarter of PCs are still running Microsoft's previous operating system.
This One Tax Move Could Save Your Company A Lot of Money
Still filing your tax returns as a "pass through" business? It may be time to change that.
Consumer Discretionary Stocks Drawing Institutional Rotation Into Live Entertainment Leaders
With the Federal Reserve hinting at a pause in rate hikes, stubborn inflation still in the background, and several large companies surprising on earnings, consumer discretionary stocks are back in focus for investors weighing risk and opportunity. This article looks at how that mix of easier policy signals, solid corporate reports, and ongoing geopolitical and supply chain issues could affect larger U.S. consumer-focused companies. It will walk through 3 stocks from a curated screener that...
Gov. Shapiro on Mamdani-backed wins in NYC: Candidates doing ‘performative politics’ must learn ‘how to deliver results’
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Earlier in June, Europe’s worst fears of technological dependence were confirmed when the White House ordered the AI firm Anthropic to stop non-US citizens using its leading models. This kill-switch moment crystalised anxieties in Brussels that the continent, lagging the US on the creation of leading-edge AI models, is now a technological of vassal of Washington. The shock has specific implications for European scientists and universities. Some governments are now worried that with AI being integrated into labs, Donald Trump now has his finger hovering over an off switch for European science. “Having restrictions on this tool, it can have an impact on our own research,” said France’s research minister, Philippe Baptiste, at the VivaTech conference in Paris on June 18.Baptiste, himself a former academic, said that colleagues in mathematics had recently warned him they were now cut off from leading-edge US models, risking their work. “This model is not available anymore now because of the US restriction, and for the first time this had an impact on mathematics,” a field where large language models (LLMs) are making a significant contribution, said Baptiste. So, should European scientists avoid relying on US models in the future? Or would this be a self-harming overreaction? And how is AI being used in science, anyway? What happened?On June 12, it emerged that Washington, citing cybersecurity concerns, had ordered Anthropic to stop non-US citizens using two models: Claude Mythos 5, and Claude Fable 5, a version of Mythos but with guardrails to prevent abuse. Anthropic said Washington’s concerns were overblown. But forced to follow the order, yet with no way to check who was using the models, the company suddenly shut down access for everyone, US citizens included. There’s still no agreement on how to restore broad access. But last week, Bloomberg reported that select US companies, and the US government, still had access to Mythos despite the ban, but the EU’s cybersecurity agency Enisa had been shut out. Class division of researchersIn the longer term, access outside the US should be restored, said Marcel Salathé, co-director of the AI centre at the Federal Polytechnic School of Lausanne (EPFL), because a permanent restriction would be financially ruinous to US AI firms. “Even Trump will eventually budge to economic pressure,” he said.However, US AI firms might end up operating rather like banks, doing due diligence on users of their leading-edge AI models, he went on.European scientists are unlikely to fall foul of such checks, he said. But having a Chinese postgraduate in their lab, or doing a type of research the US disapproved of, could potentially result in access being denied. “It will create a sort of class division of researchers,” he said. More than frontier modelsHowever, successfully deploying AI in science is about far more than just having access to leading LLMs such as Mythos.Instead, many science-specific tools, most famously Alphafold, which predicts protein folding structures, require “far less” computing power to train than frontier models, well within the capabilities of European supercomputers, according to a recent analysis by the Arq Foundation, a Brussel-based AI think tank. Instead, tools such as Alphafold are possible because certain fields, like protein folding, weather prediction or astronomy, have large, clean, standardised datasets that can be used to train predictive models. Rather than compute, “data is the central constraint for AI for science,” the report says. For example, a less powerful physics model trained on CERN’s data “will be more valuable than the best model without certain data,” said Bengüsu Özcan, author of the report. European advantage?Europe could therefore steal a march by using its scientific data and infrastructure to create models US digital giants cannot. “They might actually match or go even beyond what these big [US] companies are doing,” said Özcan.Indeed, some European start-ups hope to create automated testing labs to create the kind of standardised data that could speed up the discovery of new materials. Materials scientists say there’s currently too little data to train models. AI scientistsHowever, even if the bottleneck for AI in science is often data, rather than compute, being at the mercy of the US for LLM access could still become a problem for European scientists. A new class of “AI scientists” based on leading LLMs is also emerging, Özcan’s report says.Unlike domain-specific tools like Alphafold, these try to automate day-to-day scientific work, by providing an overarching tool that coordinates specific models to synthesise existing literature, generate hypotheses or run analysis of data. The problem for Europe, however, is that these tools are sometimes based on US leading models. Google Deepmind’s AI Co-Scientist, for example, is built on Google’s Gemini LLM. Systematic failureThese scientific automation tools are still in their early stages, and still exhibit “systematic failures on scientific tasks,” Özcan’s report says. One of the problems is that the messy, day-to-day process of scientific discovery is largely not documented, meaning LLMs don’t have a good source of data to learn how scientists actually work. Meanwhile, some tasks, such as literature synthesis, don’t typically require access to leading edge models.However, the performance of AI scientific assistants could improve as companies such as Google pour resources into developing them. Rely on US“Unfortunately, for scientific assistants, there is not much we can do right now except rely on US frontier AI,” said Antoine Bosselut, a natural language processing expert based at EPFL. Chinese-built open models, which can run on local computers, lessening the risk of a shutdown, are touted as one alternative to US dependence. There’s also Mistral, once seen as Europe’s main AI hope, but the Paris-based company has seen its recent models fall behind in performance. But the Chinese alternatives are generally not as capable as US frontier AI models, said Bosselut, unless paired with fiddly, custom tools that allows them to act as independent agents. “Most scientists do not have the time,” he said. Don’t jump ship yetAlthough the kill switch moment is seen a warning shot for European scientists, it doesn’t mean labs should abandon US AI tools immediately. “I do not think the right response is simply to abandon US-based models and systems under the banner of sovereignty or independence,” said Mattias Björnmalm, secretary general of the Cesaer university association. “That would be an overreaction.”Related articlesEuropean sovereignty in AI requires ‘ugly trade-offs,’ say experts Robotic lab start-up makes case for €500M EU-funded materials testing facilityAI in science: is it useful? Instead, European researchers need to ask themselves whether they’re becoming dependent on technology that could be turned off in Washington, said Özcan. “They might not see this today, but they should really start asking this question,” she said. European researchers need a plan B, said Salathé. “I would recommend to every researcher, very proactively explore alternatives.”Own toolsIn addition, Björnmalm and others want European research institutions to develop their own scientific AI tools.Instead of signing AI deals with US digital giants, European universities should be using this money to create their own models, which may end up being superior for research, said Sabine Leonelli, an expert on the use of AI in science at the Technical University of Munich. “Universities in Europe seem to be happy to sign commercial contracts with US companies on the assumption [their AI tools] are better,” she said. But US frontier LLMs are typically opaque, and have been developed without independent scientific input, she said. “This is not good enough for science.”Last year, Swiss researchers released Apertus, an LLM designed to be completely transparent, from its development methods to its training data. The idea is that this makes scientific tools built on top of the model far more reproducible than with closed, commercial alternatives.“Europe needs more of this: serious capacity-building that gives researchers, universities and companies credible options,” said Björnmalm.
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