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Scientists devise new method for tracing environmental PFAS contamination better
Perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are a class of synthetic chemicals widely used in industrial processes and consumer products because of their resistance to heat, water and oil. However, ...
Buncombe County Detention Facility partners with Wellpath to expand mental health care
The Buncombe County Detention Facility has launched a new partnership with correctional healthcare provider Wellpath.
NC lawmakers send bills targeting gangs, mental health evaluations to Stein
The House of Representatives on Wednesday passed two bills targeting criminal suspects: one would change where they are evaluated for mental illness while the other would give prosecutors stronger tools to crack down on gang activity.
'Mormon Wives' star Taylor Frankie Paul checked into rehab facility for mental health
“The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives” star Taylor Frankie Paul has checked into a rehab facility for her mental health.The reality star checked into the facility "
Davenport University launches accelerated pathway to mental health counseling
Davenport University is saving students time and money with its one-of-a-kind Bachelor of Applied Science in Applied Psychology and Master of Arts in Mental Health Counseling combined degree to provide an accelerated stackable pathway for students to become mental health counselors. The new course pathway is 168 credits, a reduction from the
ASU scientists unveil new methods to extract reliable truth from imperfect data
Scientists at Arizona State University are advancing how they interpret complex, imperfect data — challenging long-standing assumptions in fields ranging from imaging to cellular biology. In two papers published in Nature Communications and Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the team introduces fundamentally new approaches to solving “inverse problems,” where researchers work backward from noisy observations to uncover the underlying reality.
Congressman Tom Kean’s hospital treatment for depression may encourage men’s mental health
When a Republican, male politician spoke publicly about a leave he took to get help for his depression, the US saw something uncommon and needed, experts say.
How Investors May Respond To PENN Entertainment (PENN) Aurora Casino Opening And Russell 2000 Shift
PENN Entertainment recently celebrated the grand opening of its new US$360 million Hollywood Casino and Hotel Aurora in Illinois, while also being moved from the Russell 1000 family of indices into the Russell 2000, Russell 2000 Value, and Russell 2000 Dynamic indices as part of the latest rebalancing. This combination of a large-scale brick-and-mortar investment and a shift toward small-cap and value-oriented index inclusion reshapes how both fundamental and index-tracking investors may...
Professor, Mentor, Researcher, and Data Pioneer: Celebrating Lynn Blewett’s Retirement
I first met Lynn Blewett as a graduate student at the University of Minnesota School of Public Health, where her courses on the U.S. health care system fundamentally shaped how I understand policy and evidence. What struck me most was her ability to translate complex health systems into their human dimensions and to remind us […]
NHS to take over troubled Northampton mental health hospital
The removal of almost 300 patients from the Northampton site was ordered by NHS England in March.
Nearly three in four US scam victims report mental health harm, poll finds
Gallup survey says the financial toll of scams in the United States in 2025 was estimated at $68bn.
Environmental artist talks science comics, the Gulf of Maine and animal sexuality
In her debut work of nonfiction,‘Poking the Squid,’ Perrin Roosevelt Ireland, artist-in-residence at the New York Aquarium, looks at animal life with a feminist lens.
This is the most disruptive change in mental performance in my 40 years
Jeff Troesch has worked as a mental performance coach for almost 40 years. He says one change has loomed above all others.
Pop-up warnings on social media? Minnesota law aims to ease negative mental health impacts
New warning labels will pop up on social media sites and apps to flag potential mental health risks of spending too much time online.
Newsom Vowed To Transform Kids’ Mental Health. Many California Schools Are Still Waiting.
Gov. Gavin Newsom launched an ambitious initiative to make public schools the epicenter of mental health services for young people. Five years after he promised transformation, many schools have struggled to get the program up and running, and hundreds more have yet to try.
Maryland Gov. Wes Moore: How to improve young men’s mental health
“We need to stop treating our young men and boys as problems to be solved, and start treating them as people to be invested in,” writes Gov. Wes Moore.
Anglia Ruskin mental health nursing course under review
Nursing and Midwifery Council seeks an "extraordinary review" of ARU's mental health nursing course.
Richmond mental health agency operator charged in $49.6M Medicaid fraud scheme
The operator of a Richmond mental health agency faces federal charges after prosecutors say she ran a years-long Medicaid fraud scheme that targeted low-income and homeless Virginians.
Nearly 1 in 5 U.S. teens have turned to AI chatbots for mental health advice, study finds
A growing number of adolescents and young adults in the United States are turning to artificial intelligence chatbots for help with their mental health.
Expanding Maternal Care in New Mexico Through Data and Mental Health Support
No two pregnancies or childbirths are the same, but every New Mexico family deserves the same access to safe, high-quality maternal-fetal care. Two University of New Mexico School of Medicine projects aim to improve how providers care for pregnant...
North Dakota opens wellness equipment funding opportunity for rural hospitals | Health and Human Services North Dakota
From fitness and recovery equipment to mindfulness tools and wellness spaces that help reduce burnout, North Dakota Health and Human Services (HHS) is investing in the health and well-being of rural healthcare workers through a new funding opportunity for rural hospitals.Applications are now open for the Hospital Wellness Equipment funding opportunity through the North Dakota Rural Health Transformation Program (RHTP), providing resources to help rural North Dakota hospitals create healthier workplaces and support the physical, mental and emotional well-being of their workforce.
Regulated Entertainment Platforms Have Built a Home in the NBA
The evolution of entertainment platforms in sports broadcasting has been monumental. See how the technology enhances the viewer experience.
Peter Grove, award-winning science educator and lifelong environmentalist, has died at 82
He arrived in Philadelphia in 1972 and spent the next 44 years teaching science, horticulture, and civic responsibility to students young and old.
Records show prior mental health petition for man accused of killing grandmother in Farmington Hills
Records show a petition was filed over three years ago seeking court-ordered mental health treatment for the 34-year-old man accused of killing his grandmother inside the home they shared in Farmington Hills.
America's national parks could add years to your life — here's how they boost health
National parks offer more than scenic views. Research shows trails and greenways boost physical activity, reduce stress and improve mental health.
Recent Research on How Experiencing Racial Discrimination Impacts Health
This brief provides an overview of the relationship between racial discrimination and health and highlights research examining mechanisms underlying health outcomes linked to experiences of racial discrimination, including biological changes, chronic stress, mental health, substance use, pregnancy-related outcomes, and sleep.
ARDS patients improve with experimental treatment
JUPITER, Fla. — Doctors have few options for patients who develop a life-threatening lung condition called acute respiratory distress syndrome, or ARDS. A…
Watch: US congressman reveals depression diagnosis after absence
Tom Kean returned to Washington after a nearly four-month absence, speaking about his mental health struggles.
America 250 Is Rewriting the Business Case for Made in America
Naturepedic’s Arin Schultz examines why America’s 250th anniversary coincides with a fundamental shift in manufacturing strategy. Schultz argues that tariff uncertainty, supply-chain disruption and…
VA Primary Care adds virtual reality to Veterans’ Mental Health Toolkit
Virtual reality devices help Veterans by offering additional ways to manage issues affecting their physical and mental health.
AFSP Illinois Announces July Suicide Prevention Programs for Minority Mental Health Month
/PRNewswire/ -- In observance of National Minority Mental Health Month in July, the Illinois Chapter of the American Foundation for Suicide Prevention...
Aisha Chughtai taking mental health leave from Minneapolis City Council
America 250 road trip: The elemental power of sports in a desolate land
It's in the scent of a running stream and the feel of sandstone sashay. It's in the sound of a power-play goal and the taste of a ham sandwich. Connection is all around, even in the most unexpected places.
Contributor: Mental health care isn't ready for psychedelic side effects
Accelerated FDA approval will invite recklessness. But don't block these important medications. Take steps to prepare.
Editorial: Chicago separated its mental health emergency response from public safety. Bad idea.
Johnson’s redesign moved CARE toward a stand-alone public health response rather than an integrated public safety partnership.
Teen pregnancy prevention cuts hit Wisconsin program connecting health providers and teens
Federal officials have cut off more than $2.4 million in federal funds for 2026-27 and 2027-28 targeting teen pregnancy prevention that would have gone to the Wisconsin health department, according to federal records. The funds would have gone to a variety of nonprofits and agencies in counties with the highest rates of pregnancy and sexually […]
NC’s new mental health bill is heavy on studies, light on solutions
The bill makes a few changes to NC's involuntary commitment laws, but it largely punts the biggest decisions until after a stack of studies due next year.
'Staying away from the middle will be hardest': Sachin Tendulkar's emotional message to Ben Stokes after retirement
Sachin Tendulkar led heartfelt tributes to Ben Stokes following his retirement from international cricket. Tendulkar lauded Stokes' fearless approach, match-winning ability, and inspirational leadership, calling him one of England's finest all-rounders and captains. Stokes, who bowed out after a Test series loss, expressed contentment with his decision, citing years of physical and mental demands as the primary reason for stepping away.
England maternity commissioner role would be ‘fundamentally dangerous’, says campaigner
Founder of Maternity Safety Alliance says recommendation in Amos report will not solve wider cultural problems
Leading Colorado toward modern mental health solutions
By Sean Camacho America is facing a silent crisis. Millions of Americans are living with invisible illnesses like generalized anxiety disorder (GAD), major depressive disorder (MDD), and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), which decrease quality of life and, amid limited treatment options, create a vicious cycle of endless medications and, for many people, hopeless therapies. This […]
Newsom signs bill to give judges more power to deny mental health diversion
California Gov. Gavin Newsom has signed a bill to overhaul the state's mental health diversion program. Assembly Bill 46, authored by Stephanie Nguyen, D-Elk Grove, addresses concerns about public safety and accountability.
Simon Leis's daughter reflects on her father's legacy, youth mental health advocacy
"We definitely knew there was a love-hate relationship with my father," says Julie Raleigh, on her father, Simon Leis's legacy. Although behind the headlines, Raleigh says that Leis was simply "Dad" to her, remembering him as a man who protected his family in the same way that he tried to keep Hamilton County safe throughout his time in law enforcement.
Use of artificial intelligence for mental health splits opinion
Two-thirds of those aged 25 to 34 have asked chatbots for wellbeing support
Newsom approves measure to expand judicial power over mental health diversion
Gov. Gavin Newsom signed AB 46, allowing judges to exercise greater discretion over inmates’ release through mental health diversion program
Scam Victims Report Billions Lost and Harm to Mental Health
Scam victims in the U.S. lost an estimated $68 billion in 2025, suffering widespread financial and emotional harm.
Chatbots Are Replacing Therapists With Little Scientific Evidence Behind Them
Over 100 chatbots are marketed as mental-health-focused, but experts warn they shouldn’t take the place of therapy.
Gavin Newsom signs law limiting mental health diversion for people accused of crimes
A new California law gives just more flexibility to keep defendants in jail rather than releasing them to community-based mental health treatment programs.
Mpls council member cites 'mass shootings, federal occupation' for mental health leave
Minneapolis City Council member Aisha Chughtai said on Monday that she plans to take a month-long break from city activities to seek care for her mental health, citing stressors such as an election, mass shootings and a federal occupation as stressors for her condition.
Cost and utilization of inpatient mental health and substance use treatment - Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker
Approximately 1 in 5 people with private health insurance have any mental illness, and 1 in 20 have a serious mental illness. This brief examines inpatient mental health and substance use treatment admissions in 2023 among adults aged 18-64 with large employer-sponsored health insurance plans. Private insurance enrollees constitute roughly a quarter (26%) of mental […]
St. Mary’s Environmental Science Professor discusses Mars garnet
Professor of Environmental Science (and rock star) David Turner, Ph.D., talks about why finding possible Mars garnets is significant.
Slotkin Joins Michigan Delegation Urging Small Business Administration to Approve Disaster Declaration
WASHINGTON, D.C. — U.S. Senator Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), Member of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, joined members of the Michigan Congressional Delegation in urging the Small Business Administration (SBA) to support Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer’s request for an administrative disaster declaration following the severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, high winds, large hail and torrential rainfall across the state in April. […]
NM U.S. Rep. Vasquez, a Democrat, urges state Health Care Authority to bring down SNAP error rate
U.S. Rep. Vasquez (D-N.M.) sent a letter Friday chiding NM leaders for errors administering the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.
KARE 11 Spotlights Mental Health at USA Games through Special Olympics Strong Minds
KARE 11 visited Special Olympics Strong Minds to hear from USA Games athletes and volunteers about how the screening aims to address the mental health disparities faced by people with intellectual and developmental disabilities.
Cornell Yang Center for Wildlife Health awards seed funding to five conservation efforts around the globe
The CCF provides catalytic seed funding to spark pioneering applied research to advance wildlife conservation solutions. The fund prioritizes initiatives that improve the health of free-ranging wildlife and/or solve environmental problems via a One Health lens.
Minneapolis City Council member Aisha Chughtai taking mental health leave for a month
Hood College Launches Accelerated One-Year Master of Science in Environmental Biology Track
Beginning in Fall 2026, Hood College's Graduate School will offer a new accelerated, 30-credit track within its Master of Science in Environmental Biology program, providing students with a pathway to earn their degree in just one academic year while gaining valuable hands-on research experience.
Minneapolis council member taking leave for mental health treatment, cites turmoil in city
Council Member Aisha Chughtai said the city’s various challenges in recent months have taken their toll on her.
Communication key to supporting older adults' mental health
No matter your age, mental health is important to talk about as part of a healthy lifestyle.
Cook County Issues New Funding Opportunities to Improve Mental Health in Suburban Cook County - Cook County Department of Public Health
Cook County Department of Public Health has issued an open call for funding opportunities to help improve mental health in suburban Cook County. The funding opportunities reflect the department’s commitment to building healthier communities in suburban Cook County. The open calls are for restorative practices in schools and power building.
Students in Distress Turning to AI for Mental Health Support, Study Shows
Nearly one in five college students is turning to AI for mental health reasons, and those with severe symptoms are roughly twice as likely to do so.
BCBSM billing change could limit access to mental health care, psychiatric offices say
A recent billing change announced by Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan will affect access to mental health care across the state, according to psychiatric offices. The insurance provider says the change is in line with up-to-date guidance.
Scientists discover an unexpected way to make pancreatic cancer cells self-destruct
Researchers tested experimental PCAI compounds against pancreatic cancer cells and found they had powerful anticancer effects. One leading compound blocked more than 90% of cancer cell migration, suggesting it could help prevent the spread of tumors. Rather than suppressing cancer signaling, the treatment hyperactivated key pathways until the cells essentially self-destructed.
Political Control of Research Funding Threatens Sound Science
Decades of federal research funding have led to breakthroughs in medicine, technology, and environmental science. A new OMB proposal aims to derail all of this through political interference.
Building Community, Capacity, and Collaboration Through gmhCONNECT | Johns Hopkins Center for Global Mental Health
Doctoral trainee Yesenia Garcia shares her experience at gmhCONNECT, a training and mentoring program for global mental health researchers.
Mental health medications can cause heat sensitivity
Some drugs can impair the body’s ability to cool itself and require extra self-care.
My wait for a psychiatric bed in Denver highlights this nation’s overburdened system (Opinion)
Just before my birthday, a Denver doctor placed me on an involuntary 72-hour mental health hold. What came next wasn’t treatment but a drawn-out search for a bed, as the U.S. grapples with a shortage for those in crisis.
Help start the conversation on mental health
A new guide from the Kentucky Injury Prevention and Research Center is helping healthcare providers start meaningful conversations about mental health during routine visits.
Anxiety drives child mental health referrals past one million
Demand is soaring beyond capacity, meaning children in England wait years for help with various conditions.
Prevalence and severity of mental health problems in early-career researchers: a systematic review and meta-analysis
Nature Human Behaviour - Mental health concerns among early-career researchers are increasingly gaining attention. This preregistered systematic review and multilevel meta-analysis quantifies...
OUTAGE RESOLVED: Tri-County mental health crisis lines back online
Update: As of Sunday, June 28 at 3:25 p.m., the Multnomah County Crisis Line, the Washington County Crisis Line and the Clackamas County Crisis and Support Line are currently back online.
England facing children’s mental health ‘crisis’ as referrals hit 1m
Commissioner calls for overhaul of state support after reporting 10% rise in young patient referrals last year
TECHNICAL OUTAGE: Tri-County mental health crisis lines temporarily down
As of Sunday, June 28 at 10:30 a.m., the Multnomah County Crisis Line, Washington County Crisis Line and Clackamas County Crisis and Support Line are currently not working due to a network outage.
Efzimfotase alfa demonstrated improvements in bone health in treatment-naïve pediatric patients with hypophosphatasia achieving median difference of 1.67 vs placebo in RGI-C Score at week 25 in MULBERRY Phase III trial
Positive results from the MULBERRY Phase III trial showed that efzimfotase alfa (ALXN1850), an investigational enzyme replacement therapy, demonstrated a statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement in bone health in children (2 to
Multiple Portland-area mental health crisis lines down due to technical outage
Mental health crisis lines in Multnomah, Washington, and Clackamas counties are down due to technical issues, and officials are urging people to call or text 988 if they or someone they know is exp…
Former local star B.J. Daniels advocates for mental health awareness
Former Lincoln and NFL standout B.J. Daniels turns personal struggles into a message of hope for athletes everywhere.
NFL players come together to shine light on men's mental health in Kensington
The initiative brings together athletes, mental health professionals, and community leaders to raise awareness about challenges like depression and anxiety.
Peer Support May Be the Answer to the Mental Health Crisis
Peer support is the sleeping giant that may help us overcome the social and mental health crises we currently face.
Reporter talks environmental, health impacts of mining efforts near Boundary Waters
WTIP spoke to Benji Jones, Senior Correspondent at Vox Media, about what environmental and health experts are saying about the proposed Twin Metals mining project in the Boundary Waters Watershed. Jones’ article “Mining these metals could be a boon for the climate — but there’s one big catch,” is currently available at vox.com. Below is...
Despite Mayor Brandon Johnson campaign promise, 911 mental health response team flounders
Throughout his 2023 mayoral campaign, Brandon Johnson championed a progressive vision of sending teams of mental health clinicians instead of police officers to help people suffering from psychiatric emergencies. But since he took office…
Texas Mental Health Program Reveals 103% Increase in Veteran Enrollment
Emory University treatment is expanding throughout the state at no cost, but many veterans remain unaware of their services.
Scientists Challenge a Fundamental Assumption About Consciousness
A new philosophical study challenges the idea that consciousness requires human-like biology.
TherapyGo Announces Milestone as AI-Powered Mental Health Platform Expands Access to Licensed Psychologists
BOCA RATON, Fla., June 27, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- United Innovation Solutions LLC today announced a major growth milestone for TherapyGo, its ...
Strike out the Stigma initiative partners with teams for veteran mental health
A North Dakota insurance company is stepping up to the plate to promote mental health.
Former NFL star Warrick Dunn hosts wellness day with health screenings, financial education
Saturday’s event was centered around improving physical health, financial stability, and mental well-being.
Marine biobanks: the science of 'stopping time' for an ecosystem under pressure
In labs around the world, the ocean is being kept in jars. Some of it is alive, bubbling in flasks, while some lies frozen in liquid nitrogen. These marine biobanks are collections of coral cells, algae,…
Baylor teen health clinics provide free medical care, mental health services
According to the latest U.S. Census data, Texas leads the nation in the number of uninsured residents.
Peters, Bergman lead Michigan delegation in calling on Small Business Administration to approve disaster declaration
WASHINGTON, DC — U.S. Senator Gary Peters (D-MI), Ranking Member of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, led members of the Michigan Congressional Delegation in urging the Small Business Administration (SBA) to support Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer’s request for an administrative disaster declaration following the severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, high winds, large hail and torrential […]
ACES hosts event looking at health impacts of climate change
Dr. Mark Gladwin, the dean of University of Maryland School of Medicine and the vice president of Medical Affairs, is slated to speak with Aspen Center for Environmental Studies from 6 to 7 p.m. July 2 on the worsening health impacts in the face of human-driven climate change.
What your sleep schedule says about your health
From the time you naturally wake up to how long you actually sleep, your schedule holds clues about your heart, hormones, mental health, and longevity
Foundation Friday: Building bright futures & mental health through fitness
The Lift US Foundation and InnerCity Weightlifting empower people to strive for better lives through fitness.
Buckingham Palace without the king? Charles reveals plans for landmark's future
Buckingham Palace is having a monumental glow up, but King Charles III and Queen Camilla still don't want to live there.
Why where you live matters for heart health — even in childhood - Baylor College of Medicine Blog Network
Evidence links environmental exposures to early cardiovascular risk, disproportionately impacting marginalized communities like AI/AN youth.
Strategy Of Employing AI Mental Health Chatbots As School Psych Counselors For Teens
Teens increasingly have mental health issues, schools are trying to keep up. School psychologists are costly. LLMs can be an amplifier as a tool. An AI Insider scoop.
Mental health as both outcome and determinant in climate adaptation
Nature Climate Change - Mental health should not be viewed solely as a passive outcome of climate adaptation. Rather, it serves as a key determinant of cognitive capacity and shapes the...
Ex-NFL player Doug Martin's family sue Oakland police, allege restraint asphyxia in fatal mental health crisis
Parents of former NFL running back Doug Martin file wrongful death lawsuit alleging he died from restraint asphyxia caused by Oakland police.
Kentucky State hosts students for agriculture and health science camp
Students from across the country are at Kentucky State University for a summer program focused on agriculture, health and environmental science.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.