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Smart voices in tech react to return of Anthropic's Fable and Mythos
Anthropic restores Fable 5 AI model after the Trump administration lifted export controls. Here's what people in tech are saying about the saga.
Environmental artist talks science comics, the Gulf of Maine and animal sexuality
In her debut work of nonfiction,‘Poking the Squid,’ Perrin Roosevelt Ireland, artist-in-residence at the New York Aquarium, looks at animal life with a feminist lens.
Trump administration ends $1.2M in federal grants for Wisconsin teen health programs
The Wisconsin Department of Health Services notified funding recipients on Saturday that the federal government had abruptly terminated a $1.2 million annual Teen Pregnancy Prevention grant, according to a letter shared with Wisconsin Public Radio.
New disease threats follow Trump administration's health program cuts
Affordable Healthcare Emerges as a Voter Priority in Purple Nevada
The Trump administration’s cuts to Medicaid and SNAP may complicate Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo’s reelection chances.
Exclusive: GOP think tank pushes heavy health spending cuts
The Paragon worldview is likely to remain highly relevant for the remainder of the Trump administration.
Enrollment in Affordable Care Act health plans drops by 3M, HHS data reveals
The Trump administration said the reduction can be attributed to a cleanup of fraud, waste and abuse, but the real reason extends back to enhanced subsidies put in place during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Trump administration lifts Claude Mythos 5, Fable 5 export restrictions after Anthropic works with government
The Commerce Department lifted export restrictions on Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 after a review, clearing the models for wider access
Can GLP-1 medications improve health in people with Type 2 diabetes and PAD?
Research Highlights: GLP-1RA (glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist) medications, which are prescribed to treat Type 2 diabetes and to help with weight loss, were found to reduce the number of deaths, amputations and hospitalizations among people...
Election officials react to report detailing distrust in Wisconsin elections
Republican research firm The Tarrance Group polled 600 likely Wisconsin voters about election administration concerns.
Trump administration suspends funding for New York's Medicaid fraud unit over low performance
The funding suspension is part of the Republican administration's broader anti-fraud actions in the healthcare sector.
Running with purpose: SAU alumni build a business and a ministry one race at a time | News
For Briston and Carley Rains, running is more than a sport. It is a career, a calling, and a ministry. The two Southern Arkansas University graduates are the owners of Texas Outlaw Running…
Trump administration suspends funding for New York's Medicaid fraud unit
The move is the second suspension of a state Medicaid fraud unit this year by the Republican Trump administration.
The End of Independent Federal Agencies Will Change Your Business
For executives, the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in Slaughter v. Trump will likely lead to less certainty and consistency for the regulated aspects of their businesses, with federal rules and their enforcement increasingly determined by political expediency rather than expert analysis. Specifically, there are five ways in which all U.S. businesses will be affected: regulation will become more informal and less transparent; consistency across administrations will disappear; oversight by Congress and the federal courts will be diminished; expert advice will be devalued; and politically-connected lobbyists will drive decision-making. In this environment, business leaders will need to plan accordingly, honing their ability to shift strategy, perhaps dramatically, after every election—and perhaps even during administrations.
What is a quantum computer good for? Absolutely nothing
The Trump administration wants a useful quantum computer in two years. Microsoft wants one in three. Independent researchers cry hype.
Supreme Court rules states can restrict transgender athletes’ sports participation in schools
The decision marks another legal setback for transgender youth as the Trump administration and Republican-led state legislatures have advanced policies limiting transgender rights.
Trump administration puts religious freedom at heart of US health policy
Critics say the new focus could reshape LGBTQ+ healthcare, abortion access and vaccine policy
PAHO expands health response as Venezuela faces mounting health risks after devastating earthquakes
Caracas, Venezuela/Washington, D.C., 30 June 2026 (PAHO) – The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) is expanding its support to Venezuela's Ministry of Health following the two powerful earthquakes that struck the country on 24 June, deploying technical experts, coordinating international Emergency Medical Teams (EMTs), assessing damaged health facilities, and mobilizing emergency medical supplies to support lifesaving care and reduce the risk of disease outbreaks.
Supreme Court rejects Trump attempt to limit birthright citizenship
The Trump administration sought to upend the historical understanding of the 14th Amendment, which has long been interpreted to extend birthright citizenship broadly.
Fact-checking the Trump administration's challenges to birthright citizenship
Until President Donald Trump, few saw it as controversial.
Empower to Acquire Milliman’s Retirement Administration Business
Empower and Milliman, Inc. today announced they have entered into a definitive agreement for Empower to acquire Milliman’s retirement administration business...
Gorsuch suggests Supreme Court's Trump ruling is opening move against administrative state
Justice Neil Gorsuch's concurrence suggests the Supreme Court's FTC ruling could lead to sweeping challenges against independent federal agencies' power.
Short-sighted new student loan caps elevate chiropractic care over critical health care professions
“This administrative logic is hopelessly out of touch with the empirical reality of American health care,” writes David S. Shapiro.
Encina Private Credit Provides $90MM First Out Tranche for Healthcare Business
Encina Private Credit (EPC) served as the administrative and collateral agent on a senior secured credit facility supporting a dividend recap and refinance
FDA panel on peptides will include experts who promote the unproven chemicals favored by RFK Jr.
The Food and Drug Administration is meeting next month to consider easing restrictions on several peptides, a group of unapproved drugs popular with followers of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
John Roberts fought for decades to get rid of the 1935 precedent that had limited a president’s firing authority
For more than 40 years, since his service as a young Reagan administration lawyer, Chief Justice John Roberts has pressed for an exceptionally powerful US president, one who could fire the heads of independent agencies at any time.
Those with temporary protected status fear for what's next
The Supreme Court ruled to allow the Trump administration to end TPS for Haitian and Syrian immigrants.
Slotkin Joins Michigan Delegation Urging Small Business Administration to Approve Disaster Declaration
WASHINGTON, D.C. — U.S. Senator Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), Member of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, joined members of the Michigan Congressional Delegation in urging the Small Business Administration (SBA) to support Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer’s request for an administrative disaster declaration following the severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, high winds, large hail and torrential rainfall across the state in April. […]
Scientists Slam Trump Rule Change
Dr. Esen Sefik moved from Istanbul to New Haven 20 years ago because she believed the U.S. was the best place to do scientific research. Now, her advisees are wondering whether to stay in their home countries instead. Sefik described the U.S.'s changing research climate on Monday during a press conference about a proposed rule by the Trump administration that would require a political appointee to approve all discretionary federal grants.
NM U.S. Rep. Vasquez, a Democrat, urges state Health Care Authority to bring down SNAP error rate
U.S. Rep. Vasquez (D-N.M.) sent a letter Friday chiding NM leaders for errors administering the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.
France keeps health emergency plan at highest level in case of another heatwave
PARIS, June 29 (Reuters) - French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu said on Monday he was keeping the country's health emergency response plan, ORSAN, at its highest level for the coming days in view
France Keeps Health Emergency Plan at Highest Level in Case of Another Heatwave
PARIS, June 29 (Reuters) - French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu said on Monday he was keeping the country's health emergency response plan, ORSAN, at its highest level for the coming days in view of "a possible recurrence of a heatwave episode". Lecornu was speaking at the start of a ...
Supreme Court rules MSU economist Lisa Cook can remain as Fed governor
The Trump administration sought to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook amid a push to get the U.S. independent central bank to lower interest rates.
French election politics bring surrogacy back into Europe’s spotlight
The former prime minister's call to legalize surrogacy has drawn opposition from across France's political spectrum, including within his own party, with possible consequences across Europe.
Dayton Business Journal: Former Ohio State, Arizona State administrator named Wright State athletic director
Following the university’s first-ever national search for a Division I athletics director, Wright State University has selected a new leader for its athletic program. Wright State has named Brad Chandler as the next director of athletics. “I am incredibly grateful … Continue reading →
Supreme Court declines to hear Trump appeal of E. Jean Carroll sexual abuse verdict
The Supreme Court Monday declined to take up an appeal from President Donald Trump over a $5 million verdict and finding that he sexually abused and defamed E. Jean Carroll, a decision that means the president will now have to pay the magazine columnist.
Biden's illegal immigration surge caused higher rent and home prices, Fed study finds
A Federal Reserve working paper finds unauthorized immigration during the Biden administration drove up home prices by 2.2% and rents by 1.4%.
As medical debt burdens millions, nonprofits and some governments step in
The federal government reversed course on a Biden administration-era plan to block medical debt from appearing on credit reports
Ad Performance And Politics Steered Brand Dollars Away From LGBTQ+ Communities – But The Pendulum Will Swing Back
The current administration discouraged many brands and organizations from supporting and marketing to the LGBTQ+ community, including in June
Medicare is about to cover GLP-1 drugs for weight loss. Here’s what to know.
The Trump administration will launch its pilot program on Wednesday. It lasts 18 months, and estimated costs to taxpayers have not been disclosed.
Safety in the summer
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, July is, on average, the hottest month of the year in the United States.
Trump calls likely DC mayor Janeese Lewis George a 'communist' and vows to block her agenda
D.C. mayoral frontrunner Janeese Lewis George faces clash with President Trump over ICE enforcement, policing, cashless bail and sanctuary city policies.
Master pianist Swann to perform Goldberg Variations
The Winter Harbor Music Festival will welcome internationally acclaimed pianist Jeffrey Swann for a special performance of J.S. Bach’s Goldberg Variations, BWV 988, on Saturday, July 11, at 7 p.m.
Efzimfotase alfa demonstrated improvements in bone health in treatment-naïve pediatric patients with hypophosphatasia achieving median difference of 1.67 vs placebo in RGI-C Score at week 25 in MULBERRY Phase III trial
Positive results from the MULBERRY Phase III trial showed that efzimfotase alfa (ALXN1850), an investigational enzyme replacement therapy, demonstrated a statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement in bone health in children (2 to
Rescheduling marijuana would put politics ahead of science
The Drug Enforcement Administration is considering a proposal to move marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III of the Controlled Substances Act, which would recognize all cannabis products as havi…
Rescheduling marijuana would put politics ahead of science
The Drug Enforcement Administration is considering a proposal to move marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III of the Controlled Substances Act, which would recognize all cannabis products as havi…
Maine targets three initiatives for initial use of federal rural health funds
The Mills administration says it's decided how it will spend nearly half of the $190 million it's received this year through the federal Rural Health Transformation Fund.
Iraq detains politicians, officials in anti-corruption crackdown
Iraqi security forces arrested politicians and senior officials early on Sunday as part of a broader anti-corruption campaign ordered by Prime Minister Ali al‑Zaidi, a government spokesperson said.
UAPB School of Business and Management celebrates class of 2026
The School of Business and Management (SBM) at the University of Arkansas at Pine Bluff recognized the achievements of its graduating Class of 2026 during its annual Graduates Banquet recently at the STEM Conference Center. The event, coordinated by Cynthia Sims, SBM project/program specialist, brought together students, faculty, administrators, alumni, family members and supporters to […]
The weekend of Andy Burnham’s life - Live Updates
If England wins the World Cup, one pollster says the new prime minister should call a snap election.
Burcum: Sanford Health got what it wanted. Now comes the moment of truth.
From columnist Jill Burcum: The South Dakota health system has spent a decade trying to crack the Twin Cities health care market. With the North Memorial deal, it now has a chance to prove itself.
Andy Burnham distanced himself from UK Prime Minister Starmer, but may be stuck with his policies
Burnham, the former mayor of Greater Manchester who was sworn into Parliament hours after Starmer announced his resignation on Monday, will be constrained by the platform the center-left Labour Party was elected on that decisively ended 14 years of Conservative rule in 2024.
US close to allowing Anthropic to restore Fable 5 model, Axios reports
The Trump administration is close to allowing Anthropic to restore access to its Fable 5 model, Axios reported on Saturday, citing a source close to the situation.
Could Israel’s coming election see an end to Netanyahu’s political career?
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces mounting political, legal and US pressure ahead of crucial elections.
Trump admin rule puts reproductive health care for 160K Pa. patients at risk, lawsuit says
A lawsuit says family planning and health organizations in Pennsylvania could face federal funding delays or denials due to a new Trump administration policy.
In Trump’s America, two very different views of Christianity in politics emerge
Adherence to organized religion is falling in the United States, but defenders of the religious right are ascendant in positions of power in the Trump administration.
Days Ahead to Show If Burnham Plays Politics Better Than Starmer
Standing across from Keir Starmer in the Commons chamber this week, opposition leader Kemi Badenoch drew on a particularly violent metaphor for how the Labour Party had ditched him when she conjured up an image of “400 knives stuck in the prime minister’s back.”
Andy Burnham distanced himself from UK Prime Minister Starmer, but may be stuck with his policies
Andy Burnham has set himself apart from the man he expects to replace as British prime minister
California is in for a summer of wild billionaire spending
OPINION: With competing tax measures on the ballot, California billionaires will be spending like... billionaires, political columnist Joe Garofoli writes.
Why Belgium’s prime minister isn’t cheering on the Red Devils - Live Updates
The World Cup isn’t easy for Bart De Wever.
ICE mask ban takes effect in N.Y. amid dueling lawsuits and a race for governor
The Trump administration’s lawsuit argues that states do not have the authority to regulate the federal government’s operations.
Peters, Bergman lead Michigan delegation in calling on Small Business Administration to approve disaster declaration
WASHINGTON, DC — U.S. Senator Gary Peters (D-MI), Ranking Member of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, led members of the Michigan Congressional Delegation in urging the Small Business Administration (SBA) to support Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer’s request for an administrative disaster declaration following the severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, high winds, large hail and torrential […]
Trump ramps up attacks on Democrats as ‘godless Communists’ ahead of November’s midterms
President Donald Trump on Friday seized on the electoral success of several democratic socialist candidates to ramp up his attacks on the Democratic Party, claiming it was being taken over by “godless Communists” who pose an existential threat to the nation.
This Week's 10 Must-Read Stories on Women in Politics: Title IX Anniversary, AI's Anti-Women Bias and Ranked-Choice Voting Victories
Weekend Reading on Women’s Representation is a weekly compilation of stories about women’s representation in politics, on boards, in sports and entertainment, in judicial offices and in the private sector in the U.S. and around the world—with a little gardening and goodwill mixed in for refreshment! Published every Friday. —This week marked the 54th anniversary of Title IX. —As the Taliban approaches the five-year mark of its return to power this August, a rare protest in western Afghanistan last week laid bare both the brutality of its rule and the resilience of those living under it. —A woman will replace Eric Swalwell in California … but for not two more months. —A study of 133 AI systems found that 44 percent demonstrated gender bias, and more than a quarter showed both gender and racial bias. ... and more.
Lawmakers say White House demolition debris at East Potomac Park poses health risk
Democratic lawmakers are urging the Trump administration to remove demolition debris from East Potomac Park Golf Course, citing health concerns, while the administration says the site poses no public health risk.
WATCH: Trump receives report from Religious Liberty Commission in the Oval Office
A new report by a Trump administration commission suggests replacing the idea of separating church and state with the idea of building bridges between them.
Jessica Plummer new deputy administrator of Behavioral Health Services
A founding department staff member, Jessica Plummer has stepped into the new role of deputy administrator for Larimer County Behavioral Health Services (BHS)
Trump warns ‘godless communists’ will turn cities into slums as Dems fail to fight socialist surge
Trump calls Democratic socialist primary winners "godless communists" at Faith & Freedom Coalition, warning of threats to America's founding principles.
Trump tries out midterms message that focuses on ‘communists’
Trump warned an audience of religious conservatives that communism is spreading in the U.S., a new theme for his midterm campaign.
We have an epidemic of political violence in this country: National Review columnist
National Review columnist Caroline Downey discusses growing political violence and criticizes Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker for his remarks about the Chicago cross-burning incident.
We have an epidemic of political violence in this country: National Review columnist
National Review columnist Caroline Downey discusses growing political violence and criticizes Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker for his remarks about the Chicago cross-burning incident.
Ex-national security adviser John Bolton pleads guilty to illegally retaining classified information
Former Trump administration national security adviser John Bolton pleaded guilty on Friday to illegally retaining classified information, sealing a deal with federal prosecutors that could allow him to avoid a prison term.
Trump Administration Shut Down Climate Website, Former NOAA Employees Have Just Brought It Back
In June 2025, Climate.gov was shut down by an executive order that implied it did not meet the current administration's standards. Climate scientists have just brought the data back.
Democrats call on Mills administration to settle pay dispute
The MSEA is seeking a 2.5% wage increase in the first year, with a $1,250 signing bonus. For year two, the union wants a 3% increase.
Chaotic Push to Train Staff for US Ebola Outbreak Facility Alarms Health Workers
The three-day session focused more on administrative tasks than spread prevention.
Sweden and WHO launch new long-term initiative to transform Ukraine’s health system
WHO and the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida) have launched a new multi-year cooperation project to support the long-term recovery and transformation of Ukraine’s health system. The new project, “Ukraine’s Health System Transformation Initiative: Strengthening Health Governance, Health Financing and Service Delivery for Long-Term Recovery”, was launched at the Ukraine Recovery Conference 2026 in Gdansk, Poland on 26 June, and will run from June 2026 to 2029. Sweden will contribute approximately US$ 26 million (240 million Swedish krona) to support this project. This contribution forms part of Sweden’s broader support to Ukraine through the Team Europe approach, which brings together the European Union, its Member States, and key partners such as the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Enlargement and Eastern Neighbourhood and Enabel, and WHO as lead health agency, to support Ukraine’s recovery, reform agenda and European integration.“Ukraine’s health recovery cannot be measured only by what is rebuilt, but by whether people can count on the health system when they need it most. The scale of the task is immense, with health reconstruction and modernization needs estimated at US$ 19.4 billion over the next decade. Sweden’s US$ 26 million contribution to Ukraine’s Health System Transformation Initiative is a timely investment in the institutions, financing and services that will support Ukraine’s long-term recovery and European integration. WHO remains a trusted partner of the Government of Ukraine in advancing this process. I am deeply grateful to Sweden for its consistent support and partnership,” said Dr Hans Henri P. Kluge, WHO Regional Director for Europe. More than 4 years of war have placed unprecedented pressure on Ukraine’s health system, creating 3 interconnected challenges. The first is responding to the immediate consequences of the war and the urgent health needs of the population. The second is recovering and modernizing health services today. The third is continuing reforms and aligning the health system with European standards in the context of Ukraine’s future accession to the European Union. The war has led to large-scale population displacement, an increasing need for trauma care and rehabilitation, and shortages of health workers. High out-of-pocket payments in Ukraine make access to health services more difficult. Around 46% of total health expenditure is paid directly by individuals, placing a significant financial burden on many households and underscoring the need for reforms in health financing. Older people, persons with disabilities, women, children and veterans continue to face the greatest difficulties in accessing health services. “Ukraine is demonstrating that health system transformation can continue even during war. Ukraine is also continuing to align its health system with European norms and standards. WHO is committed to supporting Ukraine on this journey. We provide technical support, help coordinate partners’ efforts and support the institutional changes needed to strengthen the system. We are grateful to Sweden for its support. Through this partnership, we can help Ukraine build a more resilient, accessible and people-centred health system,” said Dr Jarno Habicht, WHO Representative in Ukraine. About the Health System Transformation InitiativeThe new initiative will support Ukraine through 3 interconnected areas: strengthening governance and coordination of health sector reforms through more inclusive coordination platforms and structured policy dialogue; transforming service delivery by reinforcing a primary health care-centred model that integrates family medicine, nursing and midwifery; and improving financial sustainability by supporting reforms that ensure the long-term viability of the national health system and reduce out-of-pocket payments for households. Overall, these reforms are expected to make the health system more coherent and easier to navigate, improve the quality and continuity of care, and ensure more equitable access to services, particularly for those who need them most. They will also support Ukraine’s progress towards a more modern health system aligned with European standards. “We are convinced that long-term recovery is not possible without strong, high-quality, person-centred health services that are accessible to everyone. Our partnership with WHO is designed to support deep and lasting systemic changes. Investments in human capital especially autonomous midwives, whose role for maternal, newborn and adolescent sexual and reproductive health cannot be understated, stronger governance, digital transformation and the financial sustainability of the health system are investments in Ukraine’s future. We are proud to support this process,” said Malin Perhult, the Head of the Ukraine Unit at Sida. Focus throughout implementation will be given to the most vulnerable population groups, including older people, women and children, and persons with disabilities, who have been affected by the war and face greater health-care needs. The initiative will be implemented in close cooperation with the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, the National Health Service of Ukraine, the Public Health Centre of Ukraine, regional authorities and international partners. This project will help Ukraine move towards a system where everyone can access the health care they need. It will strengthen primary care, make the health finance system more stable and predictable, and reduce the out-of-pocket costs that Ukrainians face when using health services. As a result, the Ukrainian health system will become more aligned with European standards and more sustainable in the long run.
KXNO layoffs leave Iowa sports community too quiet
This week's layoffs of local sports radio talkers leaves our sports community worse off, columnist Travis Hines writes.
Ben Wood, longtime three-dot columnist known as ‘Mr. Show Business,’ dies at 94
Ben Wood, a multifaceted copy editor, food and entertainment writer, and three-dot columnist for the Honolulu Star-Bulletin and Honolulu Star-Advertiser for almost 50 years, died June 19 after several years of declining health. He was 94.
The nation’s cartoonists on the week in politics
Every week political cartoonists throughout the country and across the political spectrum apply their ink-stained skills to capture the foibles, memes, hypocrisies and other head-slapping events in the world of politics. The fruits of these labors are hundreds of cartoons that entertain and enrage readers of all political stripes. Here's an offering of the best of this week's crop, picked fresh off the Toonosphere. Edited by Matt Wuerker.
Proposed Changes to Grant Rules Threaten the Future of Research: Scientists Must Act Now!
The Trump administration is seeking to politicize US federal science funding, but collective action can stop this grantpocalypse from happening.
Kenny Klein, former longtime Louisville Athletics administrator, dies
Kenny Klein, a former Louisville Athletics administrator of 39 years who worked more than 1,300 straight men's basketball games, has died at age 65.
WATCH: Stephen Miller says 'America's doors are closed fully to asylum seekers' after Supreme Court rulings
The Supreme Court voted 6-3 on Thursday to allow the Trump administration to end legal protections for migrants fleeing violence and natural disaster in Haiti and Syria, exposing hundreds of thousands more people to potential deportation.
Blue state leaders erupt after Supreme Court’s decision ending TPS protections for Haitians, Syrians
Supreme Court rules 6-3 in favor of Trump administration in two key immigration cases on Temporary Protected Status and asylum, drawing opposition from blue state Democrats.
Stonepeak reveals $2.53B offer for Chicago parking meter lease
Stonepeak disclosed its $2.53 billion bid for Chicago's parking meter lease as it urged skeptical aldermen to approve the transfer and criticized the Johnson administration.
Supreme Court hands Trump major victories on his immigration agenda
In two ideologically spit rulings that could affect millions, justices say the administration can deport some migrants and turn others away at the border.
NASA, US Small Business Administration to Announce Partnership
NASA and the U.S. Small Business Administration will sign a memorandum of agreement during a ceremony at 1 p.m. EDT, Monday, June 29, at NASA Headquarters in
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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