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Potential 2028 Democrats Audition in Michigan,With a Focus on Trump
Former Vice President Kamala Harris, Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey and Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky spoke at a gathering of party insiders in Detroit, fueling presidential speculation.
Lisa Rinna shares what it would take to get her back on ‘Real Housewives’
The "Real Housewives of Beverly Hills" alum wasn't afraid to throw shade on a sunny Saturday morning during her panel at The Times' Festival of Books.
5 standout performers from Michigan Football’s spring game
Here are the 5 standout performers from Michigan Football’s spring game at the Big House:
Why isn't Pete Davidson in 'Lorne,' the new documentary about 'SNL' boss Lorne Michaels? Its director explains
'Lorne' director Morgan Neville reveals why Pete Davidson isn't in his new documentary about 'SNL' boss Lorne Michaels.
Farewell to Prof. Michael Rabin, godfather of Israeli computer science
A pioneer of modern computing, Rabin shaped algorithms, cryptography and AI foundations, mentored generations and remains the only Israeli to win the Turing Award, the field’s highest honor, as computer science reshaped everyday life
Transfer center, Malick Kordel is coming to Minnesota
Minnesota gets another Michigan transfer
Washington baseball falls 6-4 to Michigan State in opener
The Washington Huskies fell behind early and couldn't muster a comeback in a 6-4 loss to the Michigan State Spartans on Friday.
'Margo's Got Money Troubles' Has Almost Everything Going For It — But There's 1 Big Problem
Elle Fanning and Michelle Pfeiffer star in Apple TV's adaptation of Rufi Thorpe's novel. It's a delight but also falls into a common trap in this streaming era.
Manheim Township fourth grader competes in event at Augusta National Sunday before Masters
Maggie Michaels’ dream golf foursome is her father, Tom, PGA Tour professional Tommy Fleetwood and Taylor Swift.
MSU-led initiative ramps up fight against food waste
Waste remains a challenge but Michigan groups are coordinating to better match production and demand and turn surplus food into meals for the hungry.
Strait of Hormuz reopens & getting money out of politics
The Strait of Hormuz reopens as President Trump teases another round of talks. Retired Naval Intelligence Commander Dr. Paul Chabot weighs in on what could come next. Plus, Ken Whittaker with Michigan United discusses why he feels money should be taken out of politics.
'We just can’t go back': How one mom dramatically cut her family’s technology use
NEW YORK (CNN) — Ever wonder why your kid goes ballistic when you try to take their screen away? It’s mostly not their fault. That outsize reaction occurs because devices are designed to make us all desire them so badly that we don’t log off, writes Dr. Michaeleen Doucleff in her new book, “Dopamine Kids: […]
Cumming man accused of stealing more than $30K from business using company credit card
A Forsyth County man is accused of using a company credit card to steal more than $30,000 through fraudulent purchases of money orders, according to the Hall County Sheriff’s Office.
Hospitals Help: Bronson Drives Change in Maternal and Infant Health
From prenatal care and labor and delivery to neonatal intensive care and postpartum follow-up, Bronson Healthcare plays a critical role in influencing health outcomes for mothers and babies across Southwest Michigan. In celebrating a historic reduction in Black infant mortality across Kalamazoo County, Bronson acknowledged that creating change requires shared…
Steelers WR Michael Pittman not worried about Aaron Rodgers uncertainty
The new Steelers wide receiver will roll with whomever is at quarterback.
Bridge Michigan’s Kelly House honored by MIT for science, whitefish reporting
Senior environmental reporter Kelly House and her series on declining whitefish in the Great Lakes were honored by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Knight Science Journalism Program.
‘9 to 5: The Musical′: Upper Michigan Today goes outside business hours with NMU Theatre and Dance
Workin’ 9 to 5? Lucky you! NMU Theatre and Dance puts on a Dolly Parton-inspired production of “9 to 5: The Musical” April 17-18 after hours.
Does your kid go nuts when you take away their screens? What to do next
Cutting your kids’ technology use sounds good — until the arguments begin. Dr. Michaeleen Doucleff walks parents through how they can achieve this “impossible” feat.
Does your kid go nuts when you take away their screens? What to do next
Cutting your kids’ technology use sounds good — until the arguments begin. Dr. Michaeleen Doucleff walks parents through how they can achieve this “impossible” feat.
Eastern Michigan To Add Women’s Flag Football In 2027
Eastern Michigan University announced today, April 16, the addition of women's flag football as an intercollegiate varsity sport, expanding its commitment to growth and opportunity within the Department of Athletics. The announcement follows the NCAA's January 2026 designation of women's flag football as an Emerging Sport for Women.
From Endless Frontier to Enemy of the People: The Assault on Public Science
A review of Michael E. Mann & Peter J. Hotez, “Science Under Siege: How to Fight the Five Most Powerful Forces That Threaten Our World” (Public Affairs, 2025)
Michael Costonis Named President of Insurance Business Services at ReSource Pro
The latest people news in the industry today.
Michael Phelps Reflects on Impact of His Mental Health Advocacy
Michael Phelps sits down with NBC Nightly News anchor Tom Llamas for a new series called Great Americans to mark 250 years of the United States. Phelps talks about his life after the Olympics and reflects on the impact that openly discussing his mental health struggles has had on others and why he says that's "better than winning an Olympic gold medal."
Earth Day marks grand opening of new, dedicated space for WMU’s IDEAS Collaboratory | News
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Carrick needs Man Utd form reversal
It has been interesting to observe how Manchester United have been assessed in the wake of Monday's disappointing home defeat by Leeds, and particularly the reaction to Michael Carrick. What had previously been viewed as calmness in the technical area and a sense of stability gained from not making many changes, was suddenly viewed as inaction and questions were raised about why Carrick did not bring on any substitutes. To that end, Manchester United are not doing well.
Michigan House moves ahead on state health department budget with expanded SNAP and Medicaid checks
Michigan House moves ahead on state health department budget with expanded SNAP and Medicaid checks
Carlton and AFL throw support behind Elijah Hollands after ‘mental health episode’
Blues player displayed erratic behaviour in game against Magpies while coach Michael Voss said the 23-year-old was left ‘shattered’ by his performance
CFTC Chairman Says AI Helps Agency Run More Like a Business
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is using artificial intelligence to boost efficiency, CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig told a congressional
Thomas and Chelsea Carballo to headline Michigan Medicine Women’s Health Luncheon
Thomas Carballo, iHeartMedia radio host of “Mojo in the Morning,” and his wife, Chelsea, will be the keynote speakers for Michigan Medicine’s fifth annual Women’s Health Luncheon: Creating a Brighter Future Together.
Eastern Michigan to add women's flag football as varsity program
Eastern Michigan is the first school in the state of Michigan to announce a varsity women's flag football program.
🚨 Champions League reveal Player of the Week 💫
Michael Olise has been named the Champions League Player of the Week after a stunning display in Bayern Munich's incredible 4-3 victory over Real Madrid. The 24-year-old was a threat throughout the q...
NAS President Marcia McNutt to Deliver Annual State of the Science Address on June 2
National Academy of Sciences President Marcia McNutt will discuss the status of the United States’ research enterprise, global leadership in science, and implications for economic competitiveness in the third State of the Science address, to be delivered on June 2 in Washington, D.C. (photo by Christopher Michel)
NAS President Marcia McNutt to Deliver Annual State the Science Address on June 2
National Academy of Sciences President Marcia McNutt will discuss the status of the United States’ research enterprise, global leadership in science, and implications for economic competitiveness in the third State of the Science address, to be delivered on June 2 in Washington, D.C. (photo by Christopher Michel)
This New Comedy Special Completely Shocked Me—with Joy
After tragically losing his son, Michael Cruz Kayne turned his grief into ‘Sorry for Your Loss’—a transcendent special that will leave you feeling whole.
Memphis People in Business for April 16, 2026
A look at promotions, hirings, movers and newsmakers in the Memphis area business scene.
I make $6,000 a month from a photo booth side hustle; replacing income
Michael Sim and his cofounder started Future Flicks, a photo booth business, after Sim was planning his own wedding and learned about the expense.
Sexual violence is a public health crisis, it's time we treated it like one
Survivors of sexual violence need to know that theirs is not a private burden, but a public health crisis, write Katie Curran O'Malley and Michelle Daugherty Siri, one that we all have a stake in not just reaching out but in making it unacceptable to look away.
'Show me the money'
What happens when a former senator, a prior governor, a previous representative, and a political advocate talk about corporate money in politics? The exact scenario played out at the MSU-hosted discussion titled “Money, Transparent Elections and the Montana Experience,” at the end of last week. Audience members experienced a bipartisan glimpse into corporate influence, how it is built, spent on campaigns and challenged by voters. A candid conversation emerged between guest speakers former Montana U.S. Senator Jon Tester, former Attorney General and Governor Marc Racicot, previous state senator and representative Jeff Mangan, and political advocate Michel Beckel. The conversation between the four guests circled back to Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, a landmark 2010 Supreme Court ruling allowing corporations, unions, and associations to spend unlimited amounts of money influencing elections. The decision concluded independent political spending is a form of free speech protected by the First Amendment, directly leading to the rise of massive political action committees and ‘dark money’ in U.S. elections spending. Tester was the first to address the ‘black elephant’ in the room. Responses to moderator questions are edited for clarity and brevity. “We are seeing unbelievable sums of money being put out trying to influence people on how to vote,” Tester said. “Oftentimes the truth goes out the window before the campaigning even starts.”
Trinity Health Michigan Team Members Recognized with MHA Keystone Center Speak-up! Award
The Michigan Health & Hospital Association (MHA) Keystone Center recognized Camryn Smith and Alicia Evans, medical assistants at Trinity Health IHA Medical Group, as its quarterly MHA Keystone Center Speak-up! Award recipients.
Greenbush Brewery announces closure after more than a decade in business
Greenbush Brewery has closed its doors for good.The restaurant and brewery in Sawyer, Michigan was a favorite for many in the community who are now shocked to h
Get Real With SOMD Politics: Michael Bennett Discusses Data Centers, Housing And Taxes
CALVERT COUNTY, Md. — On a recent episode of “Get Real with Southern Maryland Politics,” host Chris Hill sat down with Calvert County Commissioner District 3 candidate Michael Bennett for a conversation covering his background, priorities, and vision for the county. Bennett, who moved to Calvert County in 2014 on a military transfer, described the county as […]
Chad J. Thompson
Chad J. Thompson has joined Nicolaides Fink Thorpe Michaelides Sullivan LLP as chief operating officer.
At Guilford College, sports are more than a game
Guilford Professor Michael White teaches students to build careers not on wins, but on the experiences that endure.
Detroit science teacher named one of Michigan's best
DPSCD Teacher Shirley Brezzell was named the 2026 Elementary School Science Teacher of the year.
Noordyk Business Equipment Celebrates 80 Years
Since 1946, Noordyk Business Equipment has served West Michigan (the Grand Rapids and Lansing areas) with Konica Minolta products.
NFL Draft Source Program gets Pittsburgh businesses in the game
Michael Pattillo has a thriving spice and catering business. The end goal, though, of this classically trained culinary wiz is to work as a private chef. Now,...
JJ Wetherholt Homers Twice as Cardinals Rally to Beat Guardians
Tuesday night’s game at Busch Stadium was a parade of solo home runs for both the St. Louis Cardinals and the Cleveland Guardians. JJ Wetherholt homered twice and made some epic plays in the field as the Cardinals showed their come-from-behind heart yet again to walk off the Guardians in extra innings. Michael McGreevy gave […]
Pulse of Politics: Dealing with inflation & Michigan Gubernatorial Debates
Financial Instructor Michael Masserant with the Retirement Education Foundation discusses how we can help our bottom line amid inflation and economic concerns. Plus, Pulse Anchor Roop Raj and Pulse of Politics Host Aaron Jordan discuss the upcoming Michigan Gubernatorial Debates, hosted by FOX 2.
Corporate hospitals are raising healthcare costs in Michigan
Corporate hospital systems are driving up healthcare costs in Michigan and nationwide, charging patients more for care.
Mid-Michigan Matters: Celebrating science and improving scientific literacy
Throughout April, Michigan State University will be holding its Science Festival.
Apple says Jon Prosser has only partially complied with subpoenas in iOS 26 leak case
In a joint status report, attorneys for Apple and Michael Ramacciotti updated the court on the latest developments in the trade secrets lawsuit over the leak of iOS 26 design details.
Community Routes: Access to Mental Health Care Program Bolsters Services Across Three States
Direct Relief, Teva Pharmaceuticals, and the National Association of Free and Charitable Clinics, or NAFC, today announced a second round of grant funding in the amount of $75,000 to each of 11 fre…
UNC basketball under Michael Malone: Insiders reveal transfer portal news, 2026 recruits, roster, best targets
TarHeel247, the 247Sports affiliate of the North Carolina Tar Heels, shares its latest college basketball transfer portal news
Jon Prosser Still Not Fully Cooperating in Apple's iOS 26 Trade Secrets Lawsuit
A joint status report filed yesterday in Apple's trade secrets lawsuit against YouTuber Jon Prosser and Michael Ramacciotti shows Prosser is still failing to comply with discovery, prompting Apple to seek a court order to compel him. The latest filing, submitted to the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California yesterday, covers developments since the parties' last update in February 2026.
Ian McKellen and Michaela Coel on art, their friendship and 'The Christophers'
As screen presences and cultural figures, Ian McKellen and Michaela Coel could hardly be more different | WWJ Newsradio 950
Ian McKellen and Michaela Coel on art, their friendship and 'The Christophers'
As screen presences and cultural figures, Ian McKellen and Michaela Coel could hardly be more different | WWL
Shades of Ferguson but Carrick needs a response
Michael Carrick seemed to be taking a chapter out of Sir Alex Ferguson's play book with his ferocious attack on the decisions that went against Manchester United last night. The big question is how will they respond?
Wild weekend could bring big changes to race for Governor
"It was a wild weekend in California politics," said Adjunct McGeorge School of Law Professor Chris Micheli.
NFL Draft Profile: Michigan Football DL Tre Williams
Tre Williams is seeking to be drafted after five years with Clemson and one with Michigan Football. Here’s our NFL Draft Profile on the veteran defensive tackle:
VA launches new EHR at four Michigan medical centers
The new federal electronic health records system went live at facilities in Ann Arbor, Battle Creek, Detroit and Saginaw. The Department of Veterans Affairs also says it is staffing up to support implementations of the long-beleaguered Oracle Health EHR.
Manchester United vs Leeds – Match preview and team news
Manchester United host Leeds United on Monday night to conclude the Premier League action of the matchweek.The Red Devils have enjoyed a remarkable transformation under Michael Carrick since January. ...
Michigan U.S. Senate 'primary storm' captivates, but worries Democrats
For decades, Democrats have avoided competitive primary contests to pick the party's nominees for U.S. Senate. That's not the case this year.
MSU hosts Out of the Darkness Campus Walk for mental health awareness
Michigan State University students gathered this morning to raise mental health awareness.
MSU Science Festival hosts STEAM Expo weekend
Michigan State University is holding its annual Science Festival throughout the month.
Yankees Social Media Spotlight: At Least Jeter’s Happy
Derek Jeter’s Michigan Wolverines won the NCAA Men’s National Championship. Nothing else of note happened this week.
Mauricio Dubon back in center for Braves-Guardians finale
With Michael Harris Jr. on the paternity list and Eli White day-to-day with plantar fasciitis, Mauricio Dubon will make his second straight start in center field for Sunday night’s finale of the Braves-Guardians series in Atlanta. Dubon will hit eighth in the lineup followed by Jorge Mateo, who will make his second straight start at […]
UNC basketball under Michael Malone: Insiders reveal transfer portal news, 2026 recruits, roster, best targets
TarHeel247, the 247Sports affiliate of the North Carolina Tar Heels, shares its latest college basketball transfer portal news
Trey McKenney discusses game-sealing shot in National Championship
At the national championship celebration, Michigan Basketball G Trey McKenney discussed his game-sealing shot vs UConn and how he “blacked out” in the process:
Why Did Gretchen Whitmer Go Soft on Trump?
The Michigan governor doesn’t sound like “Big Gretch” anymore.
Mental Health Awareness of Michiana holds cake fundraiser
Mental Health Awareness of Michiana offers a bite of comfort food — cake. The fundraiser at Howard Park will feature professional and amateur bakers.
Michigan group spotlights Black Maternal Health Week and the risks Black women face giving birth
Black women are 3 to 4 times more likely than their white counterparts to die of childbirth-related complications. The disparity is unchanged even when factoring in education and income.
Michigan’s strong third inning helps secure win over MSU
EAST LANSING, Mich. (WLNS) – Michigan State’s late comeback fell short against rival Michigan, as the Wolverines came away with the 6-4 win. The win on Saturday was the Wolverines’ fifth straight. Nick Williams hit an RBI single to right field in the second inning, allowing Ryan McKay to score and give MSU an early 1-0 […]
Denver beats Wisconsin 2-1 for its 11th national title and 3rd in 5 years
Denver's Johnny Hicks continued his stellar play by making 29 saves, just two days after a personal-high 49 against Michigan.
Our View: Michigan must stop exporting its mental health crisis
Michigan is sending children hundreds of miles away for mental health treatment because it has failed to build the capacity to care for them at home.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
How a moon mission and a phone call could help relieve trade tensions
The mission inspired goodwill by phone from the president at a time when Michigan and its largest trading partner have been stuck in a war of words.
New York Jets Flight Connections 04/11/26
Happy Saturday, Jets fans! Here are your links to kick off this weekend. Jack Bell – TE Kenyon Sadiq Could Be a ‘Really Interesting’ Pick for the Jets Antwan Staley – Jets still high on Mason Taylor, but Oregon TE Kenyon Sadiq could be draft option Michael Nania – Should Jets seize chance to trade […]
Celtic must sort scouting and recruitment shambles this summer
Scouting and recruitment should be the top of Celtic’s agenda when it comes to the much needed reshuffle of club affairs this summer…Michael Nicholson and Chris McKay at TannadiceDundee Utd v Celt...
What’s at stake as Michigan voters weigh constitutional convention question
Conservatives could try to repeal the state constitution's guarantee of the right to an abortion.
Schools Rule! MSU hosts annual Science Festival celebrating STEAM
Michigan State University is holding its annual Science Festival celebrating STEAM.
Michigan State's Jeremy Fears Jr. declares for NBA Draft, keeping college eligibility
Michigan State star Jeremy Fears Jr. announced on social media on Friday he is declaring for the NBA Draft but keeping his college eligibility.
VA to roll out long-delayed electronic health records system in Michigan
Four Veterans Affairs sites in Michigan go live on Saturday. The rollout comes almost 10 years after President Donald Trump announced transition in 2017.
MHA Submits Comments on Proposed Behavioral Health Medicaid Policy
The MHA recently submitted comments to the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services on proposed policy 2553-BH, which addresses reimbursement for specialty behavioral health services based on service location.
Wisconsin's future Michelin stars, a new poke spot and murder mysteries
This week in the food and culture newsletter, Michelin comes to Wisconsin, reinventing "Much Ado," Blind Shot closes, two mysteries to read and more.
Michigan Health & Hospital Association Establishes MHA Center of Rural Excellence
The MHA Center of Rural Excellence formalizes and strengthens the collective voice of rural hospitals.
Covista taps Walden University leader to integrate marketing, digital innovation
Health care education company Covista is expanding the role of Walden University President Michael Betz to include chief growth and innovation officer duties.
Underdogs Denver, Wisconsin advance to title game
The Pioneers defeated Michigan in double-overtime 4-03 while the Badgers held off North Dakota 2-1 to earn their spot in Saturday's Frozen Four championship.
Slotkin talks to Ohio voters amid questions about her national ambitions
Elissa Slotkin's national tour of states Trump won in 2024 has included Iowa and Ohio this week, two states pivotal to capturing the White House.
Possible presidential candidate rallies Dems in Cincinnati with Pureval
Michigan Sen. Elissa Slotkin and Cincinnati Mayor Aftab Pureval discussed broadening the Democratic Party's appeal in the Midwest.
Lawrence: VA, under Trump, resumes electronic health record rollout in Michigan
The VA is rolling out a new Federal EHR system in Michigan on April 11, aiming for nationwide deployment by 2031.
Michael Owen raises $93K in Q1, widening fundraising lead in HD 70 race
Owen’s latest report continues a steady upward trajectory in his fundraising operation.
Photo gallery: VA aims to finally fix veterans’ health records
U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs Deputy Secretary Paul Lawrence announced the implementation of the Federal EHR at four Michigan VA hospitals.
'At the edge of the future': ASU breaks ground for better health outcomes for Arizona
Arizona State University is taking a huge step toward addressing one of the biggest crises in the U.S. — the disparity in health care, according to ASU President Michael Crow.Crow spoke Thursday in downtown Phoenix at the groundbreaking of the headquarters for ASU Health, the hub of the university’s efforts to improve health outcomes for Arizona residents.He told the crowd that despite great wealth, the U.S. health care system is failing.
'At the edge of the future': University breaks ground on ASU Health building
Arizona State University is taking a huge step toward addressing one of the biggest crises in the U.S. — the disparity in health care, according to ASU President Michael Crow.Crow spoke Thursday in downtown Phoenix at the groundbreaking of the headquarters for ASU Health, the hub of the university’s efforts to improve health outcomes for Arizona residents.He told the crowd that despite great wealth, the U.S. health care system is failing.
What one campaign rally in Michigan reveals about young voters right now
Attendees didn't fit neatly into any ideological box.