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Sony is nerfing its Bravia TVs' program guide
Sony is removing some features for Bravia television owners using an over the air antenna or a set top box.
Google's new Windows app is yet another way to access Gemini
Google has introduced a new app for Windows and, unsurprisingly, it puts AI front at center.
Orioles manager Craig Albernaz has broken jaw, 7 facial fractures after getting hit by Jeremiah Jackson line drive
Dianna Russini resigns from The Athletic after photos with Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel, investigation
Dianna Russini joined The Athletic in 2023 after eight years at ESPN.
There were 'audible screams of delight:' Why Artemis II sightings of meteor flashes on the moon have scientists giddy
Meteorite strikes spotted on the moon by the Artemis II crew will help scientists assess dangers to future moon bases, infrastructure, and astronauts.
Train tickets to 2026 World Cup matches at MetLife Stadium could reportedly cost over $100
Where to watch Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees: Live stream, start time, TV channel, odds for Tuesday, April 14
Aaron Judge and the Yankees take on the Angels.
Google Search tackles sites that try to stop you from leaving when you hit the back button
Websites will have to stop acting like clingy exes and let us go without a fight.
The best, boldest and most 'wait, what?' Coachella outfits — from Hailey Bieber's peekaboo lace to Joe Jonas's dad shorts
Celebrities are using Coachella as their runway. Here's a look at the best fashion from weekend one.
WNBA Draft winners and losers: A star-studded crowd, the Valkyries' Flau'jae fumble, GOATs and more
WNBA Draft 2026: UConn star Azzi Fudd selected No. 1 overall by Dallas Wings
What Happens in California Governor’s Race After Eric Swalwell Stepped Down?
For Democrats, the drama is reverberating well beyond the state.
4 shows to see in the Coachella Valley this weekend
Mariachazo will perform on Friday at Fantasy Springs Resort Casino.
Walnut Ridge business closures part of national trend, leaders say
Several national chains have shut down or are preparing to leave Walnut Ridge, but the Lawrence County Chamber of Commerce says the closures are part of a national trend and the organization is working to turn the situation into an opportunity.
ESPN's Dick Vitale announces he's been diagnosed with cancer for a fifth time
"I'm four for four and I'm fully confident I'm going to make it five for five."
Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Scott Pianowski's rest-of-season risers and fallers as of April 13
How Amazon is expanding its car-sales business
Amazon (AMZN) is expanding its car-sales business to include Jeep, Chevrolet, and other automakers. Yahoo Finance Senior Autos Reporter Pras Subramanian breaks down the details.
Astros place shortstop Jeremy Peña, pitcher Tatsuya Imai on injured list amid 7-game losing streak
Games Workshop brings seven classic Warhammer games to Steam for the first time
Fans of miniature plastic soldiers, rejoice. Games Workshop has brought a host of older Warhammer and Warhammer 40K video games to Steam for the first time.
Australian sprinter Gout Gout breaks under-20 record with blazing 200m time, surpassing legendary Olympian Usain Bolt
Gout Gout is faster than Usain Bolt was at age 18.
2026 All-Juice Team: One play from Fernando Mendoza earned him instant entry to this squad
On a team and in a process that has always sought QBs who could lead and elevate players around them, Mendoza's inclusion became a no-brainer. With that in mind, we give you the 12th installment of the All-Juice Team.
Stephen Curry still leads NBA in jersey sales during 2025-26 season despite injury, MVP emergence of Victor Wembanyama
Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Hitter matchups to exploit and stream in Week 4, based on advanced stats
2026 NFL mock draft 8.1: Cardinals surprise with their picks (yes, plural), while Giants take a weapon at No. 5
Doc Rivers steps down as Bucks head coach after team collapsed during miserable 2025-26 season
Giannis Antetokounmpo on if he's played his last game with Bucks: 'I don't know'
Kevin Garnett, Timberwolves formally reconcile with his first home-game appearance since 2018
NBA Awards eligibility tracker: Nikola Jokić qualifies in final game of season; complete list of ineligible players
ESPN's Mark Jones calls final game for network, gets standing ovation from 'Inside the NBA' crew, tribute from Doris Burke
Masters 2026: Only one question remains for Rory McIlroy — how high will he climb among golf's all-time greats?
McIlroy may never have the numbers to catch Jack Nicklaus or Tiger Woods, but he certainly has a pathway to No. 3 all-time.
Masters 2026: Odds for every winner since 1985
The longest odds of any Masters winner since 1985 are 150-1, with Trevor Immelman in 2008 and Larry Mize in 1987 pulling off the feat.
Brewers expecting 'bad news' after losing Christian Yelich to hamstring injury, dropping 5th straight in sweep by Nationals
Illinois Valley Community College’s SciFest returns April 17 with 100+ hands-on science experiments
Illinois Valley Community College will host its annual SciFest on April 17 at 7 p.m. in the College Gymnasium, featuring more than 100 interactive science demonstrations and experiments.
Brewers lose Christian Yelich to hamstring injury vs. Nationals
Christian Yelich was off to a strong start at the plate this season before leaving Sunday's game early.
Coveted transfers Flory Bidunga, Jackson Shelstad reportedly commit to Louisville
Bidunga and Shelstad were two of the top players in the transfer portal.
White Sox reportedly calling up top pitching prospect Noah Schultz
GameThread: Tigers vs. Marlins, 1:40 p.m.
Detroit Tigers (6-9) vs. Miami Marlins (8-7) Time/Place: 1:40 p.m., Comerica ParkOpponent Site: Fish On FirstMedia: Detroit SportsNet, MLB.TV, Tigers Radio NetworkPitching Matchup: LHP Tarik Skubal (1-2, 2.55 ERA) vs. RHP Sandy Alcantara (2-0, 0.74 ERA) Lineups MARLINS TIGERS Austin Slater – RF Kevin McGonigle – SS Agustin Ramirez – C Gleyber Torres – 2B Jakob Marsee – CF Colt Keith […]
Blue Jays place DH George Springer on injured list with toe fracture, call up Eloy Jiménez
Masters 2026: Sergio Garcia gets warning after going nuclear on tee box, breaking driver and ending up carrying Jon Rahm's bag
Sergio Garcia was given a warning just two holes after he erupted on Sunday morning.
Where to watch Charlotte Hornets vs. New York Knicks: Live stream, start time, TV channel, odds for Sunday, April 12
The Hornets can potentially improve their seeding with a win over the Knicks.
Masters 2026 final round leaderboard, live updates, how to watch: Rory McIlroy will try to hold on at Augusta National
Minneapolis public safety debate back in a familiar place: anger, political squabbling
The Minneapolis City Council’s rejection of Mayor Jacob Frey’s public safety commissioner renewed the angry divisions over policing that have characterized city politics in recent years.
Captain Clutch completes comeback, Mariners walkoff Astros 8-7
Mariners comeback from 5-run deficit
Columbus Aviators coach, ex-NFL player Ted Ginn Jr. arrested, charged for DUI in Texas
The Aviators are set to play the Dallas Renegades on Sunday, with the team saying that offensive coordinator Todd Haley will step in for that game.
Alexander Ovechkin receives standing ovation from rival Penguins crowd in potential last game in Pittsburgh
Denver defeats Wisconsin to win 11th Frozen Four title
A late goal from Kyle Chyzowski lifted the Pioneers over the Badgers in the NCAA men's hockey championship.
2026 Masters final round tee times, how to watch: Can Rory McIlroy win a second straight green jacket at Augusta National?
Masters 2026: Rory McIlroy faces history or heartbreak on Sunday at Augusta
Masters 2026: Masters 2026: Rory McIlroy faces history or heartbreak on Sunday at Augusta
McIlroy will either become just the fourth player ever to win back-to-back Masters, or will have given up the largest 36-hole lead in tournament history.
Masters 2026: Shane Lowry erupts after hitting a hole-in-one Saturday at Augusta National
It marked the second ace Lowry has made at Augusta National.
Masters 2026: Scottie Scheffler gets spicy after Round 3 at Augusta
Scheffler fired a 7-under 65 to get himself back in contention, but wasn't thrilled with some questions after his round.
Masters 2026: Shane Lowry erupts after hitting a hole-in-one on Saturday at Augusta National
It marked the second ace that Lowry has made at Augusta National.
Packers trade WR Dontayvion Wicks to Eagles for draft picks
Watch: Crusaders thump Ports to move off bottom
Watch highlights as XX beat XX in the Irish Premiership.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Where to watch Athletics vs. New York Mets: Live stream, start time, TV channel, odds for Saturday, April 11
The Athletics and Mets continue their series in New York on Saturday.
Where to Watch Boston Red Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals Live Stream, TV Channel for Saturday, April 11, 2026
The Red Sox and Cardinals continue their series in St. Louis on Saturday.
2026 NFL mock draft 8.1: Cardinals surprise with their picks (yes, plural), while Giants take a weapon at No. 5
Engadget review recap: ASUS ZenBook A16, AirPods Max 2, Sonos Play and LG Sound Suite
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WNBA free agency news, live updates: Brittney Griner joining Sun; Kelsey Mitchell signing supermax with Fever; Nneka Ogwumike to Sparks
Victor Wembanyama eligible for MVP, other awards after playing in 65th game this season despite rib injury
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Masters 2026: Brooks Koepka's driver was set to the wrong setting
Koepka noticed the error after his round on Thursday at Augusta National.
Wearables need to cross from consumer to health care market
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How OpenAI's reported ad plans could change the AI business model
OpenAI (OPAI.PVT) is reportedly projecting $100 billion in advertising revenue by 2030. Yahoo Finance Technology Editor Dan Howley explains how this could shift the artificial intelligence (AI) business model.
NFL Draft 2026: Ohio State has 3 defenders who are worth top-10 picks, positional value be damned
Tigers' Parker Meadows lands on 10-day IL with arm fracture, concussion after collision sent OF to hospital
Broncos ownership group becomes largest minority partner of Rockies, reportedly buys 40 percent stake in MLB club
Amazon Luna ends support for third-party subscriptions and game purchases
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French government says au revoir Windows, bienvenue Linux
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Italy's UniCredit says no plans to liquidate Russian business
UniCredit said on Friday it had no plans to liquidate its Russian business or return the banking licence held by its local subsidiary, which the Italian lender has held onto during the Ukraine conflict.
2026 NFL mock draft 8.1: Cardinals surprise with their picks (yes, plural), while Giants take a weapon at No. 5
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Nneka Ogwumike returning to Los Angeles Sparks in free agency
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Masters 2026: Robert MacIntyre under fire for lewd gesture in Round 1
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Trump admits error in accusations about New York health care fraud
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Microsoft starts removing unnecessary Copilot buttons in Windows 11
Microsoft has rolled out a Notepad update for Windows Insiders that removes the Copilot branding and icon from within the app, Windows Central has reported.
Cowboys trade rumors could impact Bengals on draft night
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Italy's UniCredit considers liquidating Russian banking business, Kommersant reports
Italian bank UniCredit has abandoned plans to sell its Russian unit and is considering liquidating the business and relinquishing its banking license in Russia instead, the Kommersant daily reported on Friday, citing unnamed sources.