SCROLL NEWS / DISCOVERY
Search headlines
Find the stories shaping the conversation.
Results for " FAC " 15,832 found 🔀 AI-powered Shuffle
Why politicians should pay more attention to the polls (reprise)
Welcome to the 231st edition of The Week in Polls (TWIP), a polling newsletter that always welcomes new readers. So please don’t keep TWIP a secret; share it with your friends and colleagues: Share The Week in Polls With all the stories swirling around Reform, JL Partners and political polling, I am finally tearing myself away from talking about the regulation of polling this week - and instead re-running a previous piece reminding us why the solution to problems with polls isn’t simply to ban or ignore them. Rather, we need them to play a vital role in making our politics - and politicians - better. This is followed by summaries of the latest national voting intention polls, seat projections from MRPs and the most recent party leader ratings. Subscribers who pay for the full edition can also read ten insights from the latest polls and analyses, including: A trio of organisations and a pair of professors have been casting their eyes over the Liberal Democrats ahead of the party’s autumn conference; What impact did the summer heatwave have on views on climate change? and Which wins out between chocolate and cheese? If you are not yet a paid subscriber, you can read all ten by starting a free trial now: Get FREE 7-day trial For more polling news as it comes in ahead of next week’s edition, you can also follow The Week in Polls on Bluesky. Picking up on my doubt last week about whether or not 35% of British train travellers have tried to order a takeaway for delivery to a railway station or carriage, thank you to reader Iain, who has been in touch to say he has done just that… in India. Another quick pair of updates, this time on the controversies around Reform and polling. Politico has a further scoop - “Farage aide caught in donor sting attended Egypt retreat with JL Partners” - and Ian Dunt has written about the problems with polling too: “Seeing the response of many polling experts in the last few weeks suggests that they are nervous about what is happening and keen to mitigate against it. Seeing the response of journalists, which has been basically non-existent, suggests the precise opposite.” My usual reminder as well: please do hit reply if you’ve spotted a poll, focus group or new piece of poll-based research that you think should be in contention for coverage in a future edition. Thank you! And with that, on with the show. How politicians get public opinion wrong I have written before about the benefits that come from widespread availability of high-quality political polling. We need more polls and more good coverage of polls. However, what I’ve not dug into before is the research into how accurately politicians estimate public opinion on issues. Thankfully we have academic research to tell us. First, the bad news: We present results from a study of 866 politicians in four countries.1 Politicians were asked to estimate the percentage of public support for various policy proposals. Comparing more than 10,000 estimations with actual levels of public support, we conclude that politicians are quite inaccurate estimators of people’s preferences. They make large errors and even regularly misperceive what a majority of the voters wants. Politicians are hardly better at estimating public preferences than ordinary citizens. Walgrave, S., Jansen, A., Sevenans, J., Soontjens, K., Pilet, J.B., Brack, N., Varone, F., Helfer, L., Vliegenthart, R., van der Meer, T., Breunig, C., Bailer, S., Sheffer, L. & Loewen, P.J. (2023a), “Inaccurate Politicians: Elected Representatives’ Estimations of Public Opinion in Four Countries”, The Journal of Politics, 85(1): 209-222. The bad news is not quite as bad as that makes it sound because, when asked whether the majority of public opinion was for or against various policies, politicians picked the wrong option ‘only’ 29% of the time. However, this included getting it wrong even when public opinion is far from evenly split on an issue: They do not only get it wrong when the public is divided and hard to read (e.g., when there is a 51%:49% distribution). Seventy percent of the misplacements occur for policies with a relatively clear distribution of at least 60% (dis)agreeing citizens. Moreover, the public scored only slightly worse than politicians, picking the wrong option 2.7 out of 8 times on average, compared with 2.3 times for politicians. Turning to the other measure of accuracy (not which side is in the lead but what the percentage support is for each side), politicians on average were 18 percentage points out in their guesses. Again, this was only slightly better than the public, whose error came in at 21 percentage points.2 Further research, using the same mix of countries, gives a little more comfort about how (in)accurate perceptions are: We show that politicians have a better understanding of public opinion when they think the issue matters to voters. Further, when an issue is personally important to politicians they more accurately estimate their party supporters’ opinions. The results confirm that politicians hold more accurate perceptions of voters’ preferences when they think it is important to do so but not necessarily when the issues actually are important to voters. Butler, C., Walgrave, S., Soontjens, K. & Loewen, P.J. (2024), “Politicians are better at estimating public opinion when they think it is more salient”, Party Politics: 1–13. Even so, it’s not a good picture. The remedy for this? Politicians should spend more time reading the polls. So forward this newsletter to someone you know… Share For a more general argument against banning polls, see my 2024 piece. Is “Let Bartlet Be Bartlet” good advice or not? The latest episode of my Political Fictions podcast heads across the Atlantic for a dip into one of the political TV classics: Mark and Cory talk about a giant of American political drama for the first time this week, as they tackle The West Wing. They talk about Let Bartlet Be Bartlet, the nineteenth episode of series one. In it, Mark wonders if The West Wing is actually the epitome of the “Boris Johnson school of politics”, Cory outmanoeuvres Mark into confirming we will record a Christmas Special about Love, Actually and they debate whether the central message of this episode has been misunderstood. Cory’s email newsletter is Paperback Rioter and Mark has a family of email newsletters. Subscribe to our newsletter for some additional bonus content and to get alerted whenever a new episode comes out. Our theme tune is “Monkeys Spinning Monkeys” by Kevin MacLeod/incompetech.com and licensed under the Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License. You can also listen to our episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, the web or YouTube. Elsewhere from me… [ A Lord's Eye View How to fix the problem of money in our politics Welcome to my latest update on work in the House of Lords. This time I am taking a look at how our political system is regulated, and the protections we need to keep democracy safe from becoming simply a contest to see who has the biggest bank account… Read more 5 days ago · 3 likes · 2 comments · Mark Pack ](https://lordseyeview.substack.com/p/how-to-fix-the-problem-of-money-in?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web&embedding_publication_id=1269283) If you spot a factual error… Borrowing an idea from Stuart Ritchie and others, if you spot a factual error in an edition of this newsletter, I will give you a free 12-month subscription to the paid-for version (or an extra 12 months on your existing one). Factual errors qualify, but grammatical errors or disagreements over interpretation do not, and my decision is final. Messages about both of those are always welcome, though. Voting intention and leadership ratings Here are the latest voting intention polls from different pollsters. It is all pretty static at the moment, with a small and consistent Labour lead in nearly all the polls. The table is also online here, along with explanations about what is included. It is updated regularly throughout the week as new polls are released. Next are the seat projections from MRPs, also sorted by fieldwork dates, listing those which are based on dedicated fieldwork (rather than models based on averages of other polls). Because such MRPs are published infrequently, some of the entries below are quite old. Finally, here is a summary of leadership ratings, with a graph from PollCheck: Detailed numbers from the latest polls are online here, and both that and the graph are updated regularly throughout the week as new data comes out. For historical figures on both voting intention and leader approval stretching back to the 1930s, including Parliamentary by-election polls, see PollBase. Catch up on the previous two editions [ ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/a-crisis-point-for-political-polling) [ A crisis point for political polling Sep 13 ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/a-crisis-point-for-political-polling) [ Read full story ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/a-crisis-point-for-political-polling) [ ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/extra-questions-about-the-polls-in) [ Extra questions about the polls in Reform’s funding scandal Sep 6 ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/extra-questions-about-the-polls-in) [ Read full story ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/extra-questions-about-the-polls-in) My privacy policy and other legal information are available here. Links to purchase books or other items are usually affiliate links which pay a commission for each sale. Quotes from social media messages are occasionally lightly edited for punctuation and clarity. If you are subscribed to other email lists of mine, please note that unsubscribing from this one will not automatically remove you from the others. If you wish to be removed from all my lists, simply reply to this email to let me know. A quintet of Lib Dem polling analyses, and 9 other polling insights you shouldn’t miss The following ten findings from the most recent polls and analyses are only for subscribers who pay for the full edition, but you can sign up for a free trial to read them straight away. Ahead of the start of Liberal Democrat conference, we have a trio of organisations and a pair of professors with pieces out about Ed Davey’s party:
The health risks of AI
Reports from a top artificial intelligence company that it stopped several attempted uses of its product that could assist in manufacturing a bioweapon caught the attention of lawmakers in Washington…
Matthew Mcconaughey’s New Comedy Show & More Apple TV Releases This Week
Apple TV‘s new TV and movie releases for the week of September 21-27 include Brothers‘ premiere, Ted Lasso Season 4’s upcoming episodes, and more. Brothers is a comedy series that chronicles the ficti...
Saints vs. Ravens: Week 2 Open Thread
The Saints face the Ravens in this Week 2 matchup. Join us here for the game!
Kevin Sorbo to Newsmax: Political Activism in Sports Will Increase
Kevin Sorbo to Newsmax: Political Activism in Sports Will Increase
A Girlhood Museum: Look into ‘Warm, Cozy and Whimsy’ Bedroom
A giant beanbag chair sits in the corner of Emily Arjune’s bedroom, positioned just at the perfect angle to face her television. Nearby, a furry red Spider-Man lamp casts a warm glow over a collection of artwork, greenery, completed puzzles and knickknacks. The room is more than a place to sleep between classes at the …
Political Beat Preview: House District 98
Incumbent Democrat Beth Helfrich is seeking re-election and facing a challenge from former Republican representative John Rhodes in North Carolina’s 98th House district that covers the northern part of Mecklenburg County.
How to watch Buccaneers vs. Browns
Baker Mayfield faces off against his former team when the Bucs welcome the Browns to Raymond James.
DIALOGUE: NAMI Albany invites community to support mental health at NAMIWalks
One in five Americans live with a mental illness. The Albany chapter of the National Alliance on Mental Illness wants to remind the community that no one has to face it alone. Ngina Mandouma and Kelly Wesselman joined Sunday’s Dialogue to discuss their involvement with NAMI and to invite the community to support mental health for all through NAMIWalks.
DIALOGUE: NAMI Albany invites community to support mental health at NAMIWalks
One in five Americans live with a mental illness. The Albany chapter of the National Alliance on Mental Illness wants to remind the community that no one has to face it alone. Ngina Mandouma and Kelly Wesselman joined Sunday’s Dialogue to discuss their involvement with NAMI and to invite the community to support mental health for all through NAMIWalks.
DIALOGUE: NAMI Albany invites community to support mental health at NAMIWalks
One in five Americans live with a mental illness. The Albany chapter of the National Alliance on Mental Illness wants to remind the community that no one has to face it alone. Ngina Mandouma and Kelly Wesselman joined Sunday’s Dialogue to discuss their involvement with NAMI and to invite the community to support mental health for all through NAMIWalks.
DIALOGUE: NAMI Albany invites community to support mental health at NAMIWalks
One in five Americans live with a mental illness. The Albany chapter of the National Alliance on Mental Illness wants to remind the community that no one has to face it alone. Ngina Mandouma and Kelly Wesselman joined Sunday’s Dialogue to discuss their involvement with NAMI and to invite the community to support mental health for all through NAMIWalks.
Porsche Faces Thousands More Job Cuts as Volkswagen Overhauls Its Business
Porsche could reportedly cut 4,100 jobs amid a profit warning. This comes amid Volkswagen’s larger plan to lay off 50,000 employees by 2030. Reuters quoted German outlet Handelsblatt, which stated that internal documents outlining Volkswagen’s newly approved restructuring plan, described…
Bengals vs. Texans Week 2 live score updates and highlights
The Cincinnati Bengals face the Houston Texans in Week 2 at Reliant Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. and the game will be broadcast on CBS.
🚨 Juventus v Atalanta XIs: Woltemade on the bench!
Juventus and Atalanta face off on Matchday 5 of Serie A.Juventus come into this after thrashing NEC in the Europa League, while the Bergamo side are coming off a home league defeat to Cagliari. Here i...
Barbara Crampton Will Face THE KENTUCKY GOBLINS In New Festive Found-Footage Creature Feature
She's taken on zombies, killer robots, cursed puppets, and a whole lot more, but now genre icon and Fango fave Barbara Crampton will face her trickiest foe yet with a starring role in The Kentucky Gob...
Haaland completes Premier League set by scoring against Sunderland
Erling Haaland’s goal against Sunderland today means he has now scored against all 25 sides he has faced in the Premier League. Men's Team Haaland becomes top scorer in Manchester derbies in Premier...
‘Resident Evil’ Scores a Bloody Good $60 Million Box Office Opening
Zach Cregger sets a franchise and personal opening weekend record with his gory Sony video game adaptation
🚨 Fulham-Manchester United XIs: Gonzalo starts; Andrey Santos benched
Fulham and Manchester United face off in the Premier League in a blockbuster clash between Arbeloa and Carrick. Here is how both teams line up for the match...FULHAM XIMANCHESTER UNITED XIThis article...
Live updates: Eagles visit steamy Nashville to face Titans in Week 2
Follow along for live updates as the Eagles visit the Titans for the Week 2 matchup.
Saints vs. Ravens live updates: Score, highlights, instant analysis
The New Orleans Saints are visiting the Baltimore Ravens in a critical Week 2 game. Follow for live score updates, highlights, and instant analysis.
Stefon Diggs Punished For Major Mistake vs Eagles
As the Washington Commanders put together a late-game comeback attempt against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 1, the team faced a major hit when the star wide receiver Stefon Diggs picked up a penalty that was totally avoidable after a touchdown. Diggs managed to score to make it a six-point game, and a two-point conversion […] The post Stefon Diggs Punished For Major Mistake vs Eagles appeared first on HEAVY.
Lennar snags 444 lots near TSMC for $60M
Lennar Corp. has secured 444 lots near the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.'s $265 billion development in north Phoenix.
What went right for the Cardinals in 2026?
The finishing touches are being put on to the St. Louis Cardinals season and despite another season missing the playoffs, the overall year has to be seen as a success. With the season being a fact-finding mission for the roster, there are very few remaining questions on the big league squad while the minor league […]
Christensen facing several weeks out with muscle injury
LeadBarcelona beat Sevilla 3-1 at the Ramon Sanchez-Pizjuan on Saturday, but the result was followed by an injury update on Andreas Christensen. Hansi Flick confirmed after the game that the defender ...
Litchfield County cancer screening program focuses on health risks facing firefighters
Fifty firefighters received cancer and health screenings Saturday as organizers work to expand a program designed specifically around the risks firefighters face on the job.
‘Cry Wolf’: Scientists using AI to figure out what wolves are saying
Scientists believe that if we can better understand wolf language, we can better help conserve them.
‘It's awful’: How tariffs, soaring fuel costs and higher interest rates are squeezing American companies
Tariffs, soaring fuel prices and higher interest rates are squeezing American companies, particularly manufacturers, auto suppliers, retailers and transportation businesses.
New York Jets vs Green Bay Packers Pre-Game Ball
Who will be a key factor for the Jets against the Packers?
NFL Sunday Night Football best bets Week 2
Sunday Night Football brings the Indianapolis Colts to Arrowhead to face the Kansas City Chiefs, and there are several player props worth targeting. Here are four bets for the Week 2 NFL matchup. MORE: Bold predictions for Week 2 of…
Cardinals Urged to Target Blue Jays Veteran This Offseason
The St. Louis Cardinals missed the playoffs this season and will need to go back to the drawing board as they look to build a team capable of returning to the postseason next year.With that in mind, the question is which moves they should make to improve the roster and compete with the Chicago Cubs […] The post Cardinals Urged to Target Blue Jays Veteran This Offseason appeared first on HEAVY.
A Cloudy Climate Mystery Over Antarctica Has Scientists Rethinking Their Models
Researchers compare observations with leading climate models to identify errors and help improve future climate predictions. Some simulations put too many low clouds over the Southern Ocean, yet still underestimate how much heat reaches the surface below. Observations from an Antarctic research voyage suggest that fixing the cloud count alone will not solve the problem.
Father Grapples with What to Do After Teen Daughter’s Mental Health Treatments Lead to $400K of Debt
An Indianapolis father sought advice from financial experts on ‘The Ramsey Show’ after his daughter’s mental health treatments left him facing roughly $400,000 in medical debt.
Eichenbaum Acorns: A passion for retina science with Andrea Gibson, PhD, and Erin C. Henry, PhD | Eye Care Network
Andrea Gibson, PhD, and Erin C. Henry, PhD, trace 20 years in retina drug development—and the pathway gap still facing young scientists.
‘Crisis even bigger than Covid’: American business owners are barely getting by
The historic supply chain struggles that America’s business owners face show why resurgent inflation will not be easily resolved – even if the war ended.
‘Who wants to sign up to deal with the political pressure?’: Smithsonian faces Trump’s culture war as search for leader is on
By René Marsh, CNN (CNN) — As the Smithsonian Institution prepares to launch a nationwide search for a new leader, an unexpected question mark hangs over the position that’s long been considered a plum one in the worlds of art, science and history. “Who wants to sign up to deal with the political pressure?” one
‘Who wants to sign up to deal with the political pressure?’: Smithsonian faces Trump’s culture war as search for leader is on
As the Smithsonian Institution prepares to launch a nationwide search for a new leader, an unexpected question mark hangs over the position that’s long been considered a plum one in the worlds of art, science and history.
A 60-year-old mom faces retirement with $156K in student loans
She doesn't have a college degree of her own, but she's staring down a six-figure student-loan balance she took on to give her kids a better life.
Team’s Up – McInnes names unchanged XI to face Celtic
Derek McInnes has named his Rangers side for this afternoon’s Glasgow Derby against Celtic. McInnes has named an unchanged side from last weekend as he visits Celtic Park for the first time since hi...
Fiorentina vs Napoli
All eyes are on the Artemio Franchi in Sunday’s early Serie A kick-off, as Fiorentina vs Napoli contest what promises to be an important game for both teams.Neither have started the season in partic...
PSG XI vs Marseille – Predicted lineup and team news
PSG will be aiming to record a third consecutive victory in all competitions before the first international break of the season when they travel to face Marseille on Sunday.PSG head into Le Classique ...
I taught my daughter to prioritize purpose. Now I question the cost.
I modeled a life of service for my daughter. I'm proud of her, but I worry about the financial and personal costs we both face.
Jets vs Packers Game Day Forecast
A cool and rainy day is on deck when the Jets face the Packers
Can Democrats flip House seat in SC? Navy official fired by Hegseth faces Charleston councilwoman.
Democrats think they have a shot at picking up South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District in the Lowcountry after two straight thumpings from retiring U.S. Rep. Nancy Mace.
Scotland must show more belief
Evie Gallagher says Scotland must believe they belong amongst the world's best if they are to compete against the top international sides. The number eight scored both of Scotland's tries against New Zealand but the Black Ferns were a class apart as they ran in 10 tries for a 66-14 victory at Hive Stadium. It was a second straight defeat for the Scots in the WXV Global Series following last weekend's defeat to Canada.
Museums Use AI and Chemistry to Restore Ancient Egyptian Scents
From olfactory archaeology of 3,000-year-old mummies to MOF-based electronic noses for healthcare and safety
German elections under way which could decide fate of Chancellor Merz
The chancellor is facing intense political pressure which will increase if his party struggles in Sunday's polls.
Qatar denies funding Hamas after Israeli report claims Netanyahu ignored warnings over Gaza aid
The report also included quotes from several prominent Israeli politicians reacting to the news and censuring Netanyahu's behavior.
Colwill's 'surreal' Ronaldo and Haaland ambition
In just 12 months, the Cardiff City midfielder has gone from League One football to the prospect of facing Cristiano Ronaldo and Erling Haaland.
Art project transforms Denton youth mental health center - Cross Timbers Gazette | Southern Denton County | Flower Mound
A local mental health facility in Denton is getting a vibrant makeover thanks to an inspiring collaboration with Denton County. The Art Room, a local nonprofit dedicated to supporting individuals with mental health challenges through the healing power of art, has partnered with the Denton County MHMR Center’s Child & Adolescent Center for its latest […]
Bay Area sports calendar, Sept. 20-21
Fred Warner (54) and the 49ers will face the Dolphins at 1:25 p.m. Sunday. (KTVU 2, KTXL 40)
Manchester City vs Sunderland – Predicted lineup and team news
Manchester City host Sunderland at the Etihad Stadium on Sunday looking to make it five wins from five in the Premier League. Enzo Maresca’s side have won every game across all competitions since he...
Finger Lakes Health Celebrates Latest CNA Program Graduates
Finger Lakes Health celebrates 11 new CNA program graduates. These certified nursing assistants will provide vital care at facilities in Geneva, Penn Yan...
Cardinals vs. Seahawks: Arizona offense facing tremendous Seattle defense
Seattle's defense is great. Can the Cardinals hang?
Recap: Tennessee defeats Kennesaw State 42-9
Tennessee wrapped up its pre-conference slate on Saturday night in comfortable fashion, defeating Kennesaw State handily 42-9 inside Neyland Stadium. Faizon Brandon was 18/26 passing for 178 yards and a touchdown. He added 47 yards on 11 rushes and another score. Daune Morris paced the backfield with 14 carries for 116 yards and a touchdown. […]
UW Offense Finds Groove in 48-16 Rout of EWU
Washington advanced to 3-0 on the year by thumping in-state foe Eastern Washington to a tune of 48-16. The victory completes a turbulent, but successful, non-conference slate. There was an uneasiness sweeping over Husky Nation as the weekend approached. Fear of defeat wasn’t particularly a factor, but more so, how the victory would look. Another […]
Florida State Football Has to Get Its Momentum Back
Despite early brilliance against Alabama, costly turnovers and a fragile grip on momentum leave the 1-2 Seminoles facing coaching rumors and a desperate need for consistency.
MVDs: Arkansas Edition
You don’t go on the road and take care of business in the SEC without a total team effort. Even then some Bulldogs are bound to distinguish themselves above and beyond the crowd. Those undaunted Dawgs are your MVDs, the Most Valuable ‘‘Dawgs from Georgia’s 45-17 victory over Arkansas. Offense: Gunner Stockton. Sure, we could […]
I reckon Red Bull will definitely give Newcastle wings
NEWCASTLE finally have a squad that could make the Prem competitive from top to bottom. It will likely take them some time to hit full stride given there are 25 new faces at Kingston Park, but their Prem Cup win over Leicester last week showed their direction of travel. Red Bull’s takeover can only be […] The post I reckon Red Bull will definitely give Newcastle wings appeared first on The Rugby Paper .
Stephen Curry Discusses Recruiting LeBron James In Free Agency
The Golden State Warriors viewed LeBron James as their only major free agent target, but they ended up losing to the Philadelphia 76ers. Stephen Curry was rumored to recruit James since they’ve been linked together for over a decade now as the faces of the NBA. Despite having a lot of respect for Curry, LeBron […] The post Stephen Curry Discusses Recruiting LeBron James In Free Agency appeared first on HEAVY.
Bikini barista shop coming to Sulphur despite pushback
A bikini barista shop is coming soon to Sulphur, but the store’s owners are already facing pushback from the local community. Married couple Kloey and Hunter Machulski expect to begin […]
UCF Names Jenkins as Starting QB Against Georgia State
Jenkins takes the reins, facing a high-stakes debut to stabilize the Knights before Big 12 play.
Scientists mix a simple molecule into perovskite solar layer, and efficiency climbs past 25.6%
Tests showed the combined layer was less prone to clumping and covered the surface more completely.
TCU Gets Positive, Negative Injury Updates Before Arkansas State
TCU is set to face off with Arkansas State on Saturday night and the Horned Frogs are ready to welcome back one of their biggest threats. Meanwhile, an offensive powerhouse will wait at least another week to suit up for the team.
Rutgers football misses big opportunity vs USC
Rutgers football put up a fight vs. No. 12 USC, but key mistakes doomed the Scarlet Knights in a third-straight loss.
California Cracks Down on Influencers’ Undisclosed Political Ads
Under a new law, creators could face fines of $5,000 per post if they don’t disclose that they were paid to make political content.
Trump Faced Loss After Loss. He Then Turned to a Familiar Target: The Press.
The president’s ban of three media outlets from the White House fits a pattern of using the apparatus of government to crack down on his perceived enemies.
📋 Vasco and Coritiba named for Brasileirão 2026 clash
It’s Brasileirão night at São Januário.Vasco and Coritiba face off from 8:30 p.m. (Brasília time).A clash valid for Matchday 28 of the competition.Bráulio da Silva Machado (SC) is the referee.A...
Tribes hit hard by wildfires face health effects, cultural losses
Neighbors across the Colville Tribes communities in Washington state knew Matilda Bob’s log home as the “rainbow house,” for its brightly painted exterior. Now it’s gone. Sparked by a lightning […]
Steelers vs Patriots prediction: T.J. Watt, defense will flummox Drake Maye again
The Steelers forced five turnovers in beating the reigning AFC champions at Gillette Stadium almost exactly a year ago.
News Outlets Express Solidarity After Trump Bars Some Reporters
Some Democrats said President Trump’s ban was an attempt to control the press and distract voters as Republicans face deep challenges in the midterm elections.
Voting groups say funding shortfall could affect midterm turnout
Several of the nation’s largest voter engagement and racial justice organizations are facing steep funding shortfalls and staffing cutbacks
Recap: Boston College scrapes by Maine, 22-16
On Saturday afternoon, the Boston College football team faced off against the Maine Black Bears at Alumni Stadium for Week 3 of the 2026 regular season. The first possession already showed some fireworks when Boston College recovered a Maine fumble on the opening kickoff. But BC failed on their 4th down conversion in the first […]
Scientists transport antiprotons by road, store them in mobile vessel
Ninety-two trapped antiprotons have been transported outside the Antimatter Factory along a 4.66-mile route without particle loss or measurable degradation of the trap vacuum.
A 35-Year-Old Is Facing A $19M Business Exit — But 70% Of The Value Is Tied To Real Estate
Selling a business for an estimated $19 million sounds like the hard part is already over. For one 35-year-old, though, figuring out what to do with the money may be just as complicated. About 70% of the value they expect...
Devils well-beaten by Flames in Challenge Cup
Guildford Flames thump Cardiff Devils 5-1 to secure their first Challenge Cup win of the 2026-27 season.
Scientists Discover New Crater on the Moon, Bigger Than the Roman Colosseum, That Was Created in a ‘Once-in-a-Lifetime’ Impact
Scientists have discovered a new moon crater bigger than the Roman Colosseum, formed in 2024 by a rare impact that also changed nearby lunar surface conditions.
Bills’ Heartfelt Gesture Makes Highmark Stadium Debut Unforgettable for Buffalo
For over fifty years, Buffalo Bills‘ football thrived in the raw, ice-bound atmosphere of the original Highmark Stadium. Due to the necessity of modern facilities Bills’ went through a transition and now they have a $2.1 billion dollar worth stadium. The stadium finally welcomed the fans and the organization didn’t forget to make it special […] The post Bills’ Heartfelt Gesture Makes Highmark Stadium Debut Unforgettable for Buffalo appeared first on Gridiron Heroics.
Confirmed: Injury costs Liverpool winger; Andoni Iraola forced to pivot
Liverpool don't have the winger they wanted this season thanks to injury. Andoni Iraola has been forced to pivot into something new.Liverpool quite famously lack a balanced squad right now. There are ...
Patriots DC calls Darnell Washington a ‘big challenge’
The New England Patriots have plenty to prepare for as they get set to face the Pittsburgh Steelers, and tight end Darnell Washington presents a particularly difficult matchup. Patriots defensive coordinator Zak Kuhr singled out Washington as a “big challenge,” pointing to the fourth-year tight end’s rare combination of size, strength and athleticism. Washington has […]
Ed Sheeran's PA Concert Undergoes Major Change Amid Macklemore Controversy
Ed Sheeran's Saturday, September 19, Loop Tour concert in Philadelphia will feature a major change as the singer continues to face backlash.
Official: Real Madrid name squad to face Atlético
The squad of players called upon by Real Madrid for their upcoming showdown with city rivals Atlético has been unveiled online. And it features, in positive news for Los Blancos, minimal absentees.T...
Yankees Send Aaron Judge Back to the Injured List
The New York Yankees will once again be without their captain and reigning American League MVP, Aaron Judge. The team announced on Saturday morning that the 34-year-old will hit the 10-day injured list (retroactive to September 17th) due to a right calf strain. Judge only appeared in seven games after returning from a fractured rib …
📋 Atlético-MG reveal line-up for clash with Chapecoense
Atlético-MG are lined up to face Chapecoense in the opening match of the 28th round of the Brasileirão. Kickoff is at 4 p.m. this Saturday (19) at Arena MRV.Premiere will broadcast the match. And yo...
M6 Pro Chip Result on Geekbench is Likely Fake
A supposed Geekbench result for an unreleased M6 Pro chip surfaced this week, but it is likely fake. Geekbench creator John Poole informed MacRumors that he uncovered "internal inconsistencies" that lead him to believe that the M6 Pro result might not be legitimate. Geekbench creator John Poole informed MacRumors that he uncovered "internal inconsistencies" that lead him to believe that the M6 Pro result might not be legitimate.
Trump vows to create ‘AI Force’ and appoint czar amid calls to regulate technology’s development
President Donald Trump said Saturday he plans to create an “AI Force” and name an AI czar as the government faces growing calls to impose guardrails on the rapid development of artificial intelligence.
The Tax Rich Business Owners Skip That W-2 Workers Can’t: How S Corp Profits Escape the Medicare Surtax
A salaried nurse looks at her pay stub and sees Medicare tax coming out of every dollar she earns. It does not stop at a cap. Once her wages plus her spouse’s cross an income line, an extra ACA Medicare surcharge kicks in on top, and it also has no ceiling. There is no form […]
Will unlikely starts continue in second week of NFL season?
Four NFL games feature 0-1 teams facing 1-0 opponents. History shows how rare and unpredictable these 2-0 starts are.
Serie A official line-ups: Roma vs. Inter
It’s a top of the table Scudetto showdown with Donyell Malen, Paulo Dybala and Matias Soulé leading Roma against Inter’s Lautaro Martinez, Marcus Thuram and Curtis Jones.It kicks off at the Stadi...
Rob Dillingham Named Chicago Bulls' Top 2026-27 Breakout Candidate
An overlooked Bulls youngster has a chance to ascend this season.
‘Today’s Gonna Be Wild,’ ‘Love This Sport’ — CFB Fans React As Lane Kiffin Faces Wrath of Ole Miss Fans During ESPN’s GameDay Segment
The rivalry between Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss reached another level Saturday morning when ESPN’s College GameDay went live from Oxford. Within seconds of the broadcast beginning, Ole Miss fans in The Grove broke into loud chants aimed at their former head coach.
5 phones to buy instead of the Google Pixel 11 Pro
The Pixel 11 Pro is one of Google’s strongest flagships yet, but these five phones offer better value, more performance, or a completely different form factor.
Small boat arrivals are ‘wealthy men’ who do not deserve help, says Reform’s Danny Kruger
The fact that some migrants pay people smugglers thousands of pounds makes them well off, MP claims
The Big Holes in Wearable Heart Rate Variability And Readiness Scores
On September 9th, Apple announced it was revamping its Apple Watch Health Sensing System, rolling out a Readiness score (0 to 10), and increasing the frequency of heart rate variability (HRV) outputs 24-fold. This can be viewed as upping its competition with various other consumer wearable sensors. These “readiness scores” as a composite of multiple metrics, with heart rate variability (HRV) being front and center for most. The majority of Americans are now using wearable sensors, which equates to well over 100 million adults. HRV and Readiness scores are increasingly being marketed as a measurement of autonomic nervous system health, a digital marker for future disease, a clock for biological age, and a holistic metric to promote healthspan and even longevity. (Apple also introduced a new longevity tab and “Health Age”.) None of this has been proven. In this edition of Ground Truths I am going to review what we know about heart rate variability and readiness scores. Heart Rate Variability HRV is the variation in normal heart cycle timing. The variability of the heart rate, the barely perceptible millisecond changes in time between consecutive heart beats (see R-R intervals in the Figure below, left panel), is due to interplay between the sympathetic and parasympathetic (vagal nerve) inputs. Distinct from heart rate, individuals with the same heart rate can have very different HRVs. It is a rough reflection of the autonomic nervous system (ANS) activity, inadequate to say whether a person’s ANS function is abnormal. For more than three decades, heart rate variability (HRV) has been measured and several studies have found an association of low HRV and clinical outcomes, particularly a link with higher all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. There have also been less well established links of low HRV to risk of early cognitive impairment, dementia, mental illness, Type 2 diabetes and substance abuse. An important reminder is that HRV is a surrogate marker without any established cause-and-effect relationship. If you increase your HRV, that doesn’t mean it will improve health outcomes. In fact, there is no hard evidence for that. All that work linking to health outcomes was done with electrocardiogram (ECG) derived HRV. Now, in the era of consumer wearables, this is getting assessed differently, by optical pulse (yes, the lights you see) plethysmography (PPG) or what is called pulse rate variability (PRV). They are not the same, as shown below (right panel) and only concordant when the delay between the ECG and pulse is kept constant, which basically means at rest. I should mention there’s also what I will call MPV, a mattress mechanical movement sensor, a derived heart rate variability, that companies like Eight Sleep use, even further away from directly measuring HRV. HRV has not one uniform measurement but many different types of quantification, such as RMSSD, the magnitude of difference between successive R-R intervals of normal sinus beats (N-N) or SDNN, the standard deviation of NN intervals, both in milliseconds. SDNN is one of the so-called frequency domain HRVs (others are LF, HF, LF/HF). Different wearable sensors use different metics; Apple has relied on SDNN and nearly all of the others use RMSSD, which is generally considered the more accurate metric. There’s also the different length of time measured, such as for a matter of minutes, all day, or an overnight’s sleep. Short measurements are especially problematic since they don’t capture enough of respiratory modulation and other factors that influence HRV. Share Ground Truths How well does HRV correlate with PRV? There are very limited studies, especially independently done. One that is commonly cited was conducted by Air Force researchers in only 13 healthy adults assessing Oura ring 3 and 4, Whoop 4.0, and Garmin Fenix 6 and showed a correlation coefficient of 0.88 to 0.97 and a mean absolute percentage error from 6 to 10%. The correlation is not a perfect 1.0, but there’s at least a fairly high level of correlation. HRV is supposed to increase during the night due to takeover of the parasympathetic nervous system, and higher during deep sleep. A recent example of my 1 week, all day “HRV,” and one during sleep is shown below. As you can see, the N of 1 data are inconsistent for the same days from different sensors (Oura, AppleWatch, Fitbit Air, and Eight Sleep) by patterns, absolute numbers, and comparison with prior days and weeks. The largest study in over 8 million Fitbit users (the old version, not Google Fitbit Air, introduced in May 2026) gives you a sense of the effect of age, sex, and the 2 different main HRV (here PRV) metrics, with RMSSD on the left and SDRR (=SDNN) on the right below. That study, from data collected in 2018, is a major outlier, since all the more recent ones are tiny with respect to sample size. Many of the companies have not had independent evaluation of their HRV, such as Eight Sleep, but have published a low standard error on their website. There are some other published studies on the correlation between HRV and PRV, but they are all small and only in healthy adults. A scoping review emphasized the lack of study in underrepresented individuals, including the aged, people of color (which affects the PPG signal), and individuals who are underweight or obese. Add the typical adult age 60 plus with one or more chronic diseases. For example, one study in over 900 adults found poor correlation of HRV and PRV, non-uniformly underestimated across many chronic diseases (cardiovascular, endocrine, neurological, respiratory, and others), concluding PRV is “an invalid surrogate for HRV.” A recent systematic review of 43 studies comparing HRV and PRV found reasonable pooled absolute standardized error (HRV as gold standard) but only 10 of the studies provided quantitative synthesis in ideal conditions. Their main conclusion was similarly cautious: “PPG-derived HRV [PRV] should not be regarded as universally interchangeable with ECG-derived HRV across all devices, populations, and recording contexts.” Factors Affecting HRV and PRV That gets me to the long list of factors that affect HRV (and PRV) besides the device, the type of measurement (RMSSD, SDNN or others), the person’s signal, the sensor site, the duration of data capture, if weighting by sleep stage is used, how artifact is processed and corrected. And this list is not complete!: Oura puts out data from their community of users (who input data) on what affects their overnight HRV. The factors currently provided are: no alcohol (increase 8%), melatonin (increase 2%, float tank (increase 2%), wine (decrease 4%), and party (decrease 14%) in overnight HRV. Must be some big parties! Subscribe What is a PRV measurement good for? It has been falsely characterized as an index of “autonomic balance” and a specific indicator of stress. A 2018 review of the studies available for HRV and its relationship to stress, not using any of the current wearables, found that stress can lower HRV. But so can many other factors. The non-specificity of the signal, indexed to the table above, is striking. Evidence from a UK Biobank study of over 46,000 participants with actual HRV looked at genetically predicted HRV, a genetic risk score, that failed to show the expected HRV-mortality link, indicating that _HRV is likely not causa_l, but rather a reflection of person’s physiologic state. A review of consumer wearable HRV data from 5 longitudinal studies showed that nighttime PRV was not associated with perceived stress, and surprisingly higher HRV, in the largest cohort (N=717 participants), was correlated with higher stress. An Oura ring cohort of 525 first-year college students found a link between overnight PRV and perceived stress, but that was also seen with resting heart rate, sleep, and respiratory rate. Several very small studies have examined the relationship of HRV and athletic injuries or guiding training with mixed, and predominantly negative results. HRV biofeedback training with paced breathing had no significant effect on reducing stress or raising HRV, as demonstrated with sham controlled trials. When HRV for multiple days showed a decline in conjunction with body temperature, the Oura ring published data for prediction of Covid. The WHOOP company sponsored an observational study, published in 2026, of 30,000 users for 72 weeks, without a control group, that reported reduced alcohol intake (5.8 % points) by self-report. That doesn’t tell us much, and particularly about the merits of HRV for behavioral change. If you use the same device and conditions as longitudinal trends for multiple (at least 2-3) weeks that may be the one way to get something useful from the measurements. Data for overnight sleep with minimal motion and using RMSSD is the best proxy for real HRV. The reason to look at trends rather than any given night is that it more likely represents something, even though you won’t know with certainty what the “it” is. Keep in mind there are no data, no peer-reviewed evidence, to show that HRV fluctuation in-person has any correlation with health outcomes. Share Readiness Scores These are proprietary scores that integrate different metrics for each of the wearables: no algorithms have been disclosed. They are unvalidated against health outcomes. In a review of 14 composite health scores of readiness and recovery, HRV contributed 86% to the scores, followed by reading heart rate (79%), physical activity and sleep duration (both at 71%). That review noted the substantial variability in measurement protools and lack of standardization. Sleep staging is notoriously inconsistent and inaccurate by these sensors, which adds further to the HRV uncertainties for what the scores, which use sleep stage data, mean. Only resting heart rate has been shown consistently across devices to be extremely accurate. I’ve made a Table to summarize what we know about which metrics are included, the scores, any peer-reviewed studies that compared the readiness score with health outcomes, and the corresponding (if any, NA-not available) citation. You will note that some companies do not use the term “readiness," such as WHOOP for recovery, and Garmin, which has 2 different scores, one of which is Body Battery. Eight Sleep uses the term “Fitness Score.” They all include HRV; Apple includes a new metric they call “Recovery HRV” which among other components uses 7-days of sleep, but it is unclear what this means or how it is differentiated from other scores (there are clearly no data for outcomes). We have no knowledge of how the different components are weighted or whether any of these scores are better than resting heart rate, HRV alone, physical activity, or any other single metric. Since none of these are standardized, they are not interchangeable, so if you get a 90 for Oura that has no relationship to a 90 on a Google Fitbit Air. Notably, the company can update its algorithm for readiness score at any point without notification to device users. Without any useful evidence of actionability for these scores or established relationship with health outcomes, it is hard to make a case for their value. At the Apple recent announcement they showed their Readiness score (0-10) on the watch (Figure below) but there are no published data on this score, not even on their website. It’s available only on their new Watch Series 12 or Ultra 4 [of course, ;-)]. That exemplifies the problems with these scores, lack of data and evidence for being meaningful to promote health. Perhaps the best study (which isn’t saying much) is the WHOOP Recovery for golfer performance, because it did correlate with an objective outcome, even though there was no control group and the authors were all from the company. Among the 389 pro golfers, an absolute 10-per cent point increase in Recovery score was associated with about 0.5 fewer strokes per round. But that’s hardly a health outcome! WHOOP is also conducting a study in over 2,700 runners to see if their recovery score will be linked to less injuries and improved performance, but that is not yet published and has no control group or randomization. Putting This in Context For two decades I’ve been enthusiastic about the potential for digital health and particularly wearable biosensors. Over the years, we’ve seen some great progress for their ability to promote physical activity and accurately detect atrial fibrillation (the first FDA cleared deep learning AI for consumers). That work was the subject of rigorous research. But there are holes in the data and evidence for other metrics. One notable one is the “VO2 max” story that I wrote about earlier this year. At that time many subscribers asked me to cover heart rate variability, which I finally got to here. When I dived into the research and publication for HRV and readiness scores, I expected to find at least some that were of high quality and demonstrated their utility by linkage to health outcomes. To my surprise, I found none. The wearable sensor measurements for HRV (PRV) are, for the most part, accurate, but that validation work has only been done in small studies of healthy adults and does not take into account the long list of factors, from the device, software side, and the user side, that affect HRV measurements. Moreover, this metric chiefly relies on optical sensing and, as we have learned for heart rate PPG sensing, may be less accurate in people of color. Keep in mind that all of the health outcome association evidence comes from ECG-derived HRV; none are from wearable sensor data. I will repeat the key point: there's no peer-reviewed evidence to show that in-person HRV fluctuation—or efforts to raise your HRV— has any correlation with health outcomes. For those of you who look at your HRV on awakening, or even 2+ week trends of it being low, I hope this context helps to relieve any anxiety. Yes, low HRV (not PRV) has been shown to increase risk of some diseases as summarized above. But efforts to raise your HRV—a surrogate metric— has not been established for improving any health outcomes. HRV does not have any evidence of causality (the genetic evidence actually goes against this possibility). In this summary, I have not included data for other wearable sensors such as Polar, Samsung, Withings, Suunto, Amazfit, Coros, Ultrahuman, or additional mattress sensors. These are beyond my first-hand experience, and as far as I know from my in-depth review none have any peer-reviewed published data that differ from the 6 sensors I’ve reviewed here. From the points I’ve gone over above, we’re not ready for readiness scores. Besides being proprietary, they are predominantly based on metrics that have their own issues. It’s compounding the problem, like building a house without a solid foundation that has never undergone a rigorous inspection, and then selling it. Like I mentioned for PRV, you can look at trends over weeks rather than any single day, to get a handle, but even that may not be helpful. There’s simply no evidence that these scores meaningfully relate to health outcomes. I’d emphasize they might, but that requires doing prospective or randomized studies to prove it. None exist. There’s great promise for HRV/PRV utility_. For example**,**_ Prof Maiken Nedergaard, who discovered the brain glymphatics that are essential in eliminating metabolic waste products from the brain during sleep, has posited that HRV could be a non-invasive marker for neuromodulator oscillations, brain-body regulatory circuits, and brain clearance. That would be extremely useful, but like everything else on HRV and readiness scores it requires solid research and validation. The lay media isn’t helping much to get the story straight. Earlier this year The Economist published a piece entitled “The most useful indicator of your overall health” which ordained HRV as an “accumulated stress score.” That’s akin to the false assertion about VO2max: “V02 max is the singular most powerful marker for longevity.” As I’ve summarized here, that is not established. The fact is that so many things can lower HRV, including physical exercise (especially an intense workout), reduced sleep quality, stress, the list above, no less the device, signal, and software. Whatever fluctuations observed have not been correlated with any health outcome. Sadly, “datamaxxers” are widely using HRV and readiness scores that have never been validated to mean anything. We already know that for some people using the sensors for sleep metrics, it can induce “orthosomnia,” an obsession to get high sleep quality, with associated high levels of anxiety. In an experiment done by a company to promote sleep quality for its employees, “For those employees who did use the trackers, many reported feeling perfectly rested until their tracker told them they had had a terrible night. Others were told that they had slept like a baby when they had actually been lying awake worrying about the quality of their sleep. “ The same problem can result from preoccupation with HRV or readiness scores, with anxiety that would lead to further reduction in both. It you are using a wearable like >100 million American adults, it’s OK to look at these data, but contextualized with the major caveats reviewed here. If you are one to require evidence that HRV or readiness scores are linked to health outcomes, you may not even want to look. The companies make it hard to turn them off! Let me end with the companies that make and sell wearables. Apple’s doubling down on HRV (24-fold more reporting and heart rate very 5 seconds) and introduction of a Readiness score tells us that consumers have bought into these metrics and they are joining the club. However, all of this is occurring with a backdrop of tens millions of users, claims about the data that are not backed up by adequate evidence, marketing way out in front of whatever limited data exists, and not being transparent about their readiness score algorithms. The companies can well afford to do the research that is needed to connect these metrics with health outcomes show, once and for all, that increasing HRV or using readiness scores promotes our health. If they believed and invested in the products they are selling, we’d not be in this position of not knowing. That’s essentially where we are with HRV and readiness scores. Perhaps someday this will change and we’ll have good reason to embrace them. NB: I wrote this post. No AI. I have no conflicts of interest with any of its content. Loading... Ground Truths has 215,000 subscribers from every US state and 214 countries. There are over 300,000 followers of Ground Truths so more than 90,000 folks who can easily convert to be free subscribers. Your subscription to these free essays and podcasts makes my work in putting them together worthwhile. If you’re not a subscriber, please join! If you found this interesting PLEASE share it! Share Ground Truths The proceeds from all voluntary paid subscriptions go to support our summer internship program. It enabled us to accept and support a record number of 62 summer interns that joined us in 2026! These are high school, college and medical students selected from thousands of applicants. We couldn’t do this expanded program without the funds coming in through Ground Truths. Thank you!