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Time for the Supreme Court to finally end Boulder’s climate shakedown
The first case the U.S. Supreme Court hears in its new term won’t come from Washington or Wall Street. It will come from Boulder. And if you drive to work, heat a house or buy groceries in this state, you have a stake in how it comes out. On Oct. 5, the court will hear […]
GOAL Medals Ceremony Celebrates Sports & Entertainment Venues’ Sustainability Impact
GOAL took part in Climate Week NYC by hosting two days of programming that included a behind-the-scenes tour of UBS Arena, a fireside chat featuring National
Dr. Carlos Afonso Nobre Awarded 2026 Thomas E. Lovejoy Prize for Leadership in Amazon Science and Conservation
NEW YORK, Sept. 23, 2026 — Dr. Carlos Afonso Nobre, one of the world’s leading scientists on the Amazon and its relationship to the global climate, has been awarded the 2026 Thomas E. Lovejoy Prize in recognition of more than four decades of groundbreaking science, leadership, and c
New Yorkers could pay $26,000 out of pocket for climate change
“Energy. Impact. Action.” Is the official theme for Climate Week NYC 2026.
Nonprofit Black Health Matters No Longer Says 'Health Equity'
In a new political climate, the nonprofit revises its mission statement -- but not its mission.
Newsom talks climate with world leaders in New York
He called Trump the most destructive environmental president in American history and “an invasive species”
Political shifts may shape how quickly Germany adopts electric cars and solar power
A new study conducted by the Climate Action Research Lab (CARL) at the University of Freiburg finds that electric cars and photovoltaic systems are less widespread on average in municipalities with strong ...
Video: Jane Fonda Criticizes Both U.S. Political Parties for Climate Inaction
The actor and activist Jane Fonda said the U.S. is facing “two existential crises — climate and democracy.”
MPD: Wilmer Man arrested in attempted wiring theft at Mobile business
A 49-year-old man was arrested Tuesday night after officers caught suspects trespassing at a Montlimar Drive business, according to the Mobile Police Department.
Britain to join the EU’s new global ocean monitoring system
Cooperation on OceanEye, which will help to predict extreme weather and climate events, comes amid government attempts to move closer to Brussels
Behind closed doors, the politics of solar geoengineering are shifting
More politicians in the U.S. and around the globe are taking a look at sunlight-reflecting technologies, two experts said.
At Rutgers, Talking Across Difference Aims for Civil Dialogue in a Divisive Political Climate
An initiative at Rutgers University-New Brunswick is helping students develop the skills and confidence to engage in meaningful conversations during an era marked by political polarization, social division and declining trust in democratic institutions. Through Talking Across Difference, a program developed within the Rutgers Democracy Lab at the Eagleton Institute of Politics during the 2024-2025 academic year, students, faculty and staff are learning how to engage in productive conversations
Reform and the UAE – a threat to British politics
By Alex Carlen The United Arab Emirates likes to present itself as part of the solution to the climate crisis. The oil-rich Gulf state has committed to Net Zero by 2050, hosted COP 28, and even declared “championing climate action” as one of three strategic objectives for this week’s session of the United Nations General Assembly. But behind the scenes the UAE has quietly built one of its closest political relationships in Europe with the party most hostile to climate action in Britain: Nigel Farage’s Reform UK. There is no evidence that the UAE is funding Reform. But a new FairSquare report, Petro-populism: the UAE–Reform threat, published today, documents a growing political relationship that should concern anyone interested in the integrity of British democracy. Reform’s leaders have embraced the UAE’s political model and promoted positions that align closely with the Emirati government’s priorities, while the UAE has given Farage and his party unusually warm access and public backing. What is emerging is not simply a relationship between British politicians and a wealthy Gulf state, but a channel through which an authoritarian government can cultivate political influence here, and abroad. Democracy for Sale relies on its readers. If you already support us, thanks so much. If you don’t, sign up to support fearless independent investigative journalism. Subscribe Back in January, Nigel Farage appeared at a GB News event in Dubai. On the 50th floor of a tower overlooking the luxury resorts and upscale residences of Palm Jumeirah, the Reform leader declared: “I want Clacton to look like this.” At the event – which Farage never declared on his official register of interests – senior Emirati officials mixed with British expats. Farage was keen to flatter. “We recognise you are our friends”, he said, assuring them that “a Brexit London, a Reform London, will remember you.” Controversy surrounding Reform’s finances and its susceptibility to foreign influence have centred around high-profile donations from billionaire crypto donors, and the jailing of Nathan Gill, Reform’s former leader in Wales, for accepting bribes to give pro-Russia speeches. Far less attention has been paid to Reform’s blossoming new alliance with the UAE, an oil-rich authoritarian state with a track record of ruinous anti-democratic interventions. Farage wasn’t always so fond of the UAE. Back in 2023 he called it an “absolute monarchy with an abysmal human rights record.” Now Reform’s hierarchy calls the UAE home. Deputy leader Richard Tice splits his time between his constituency and Dubai and has called on the UK to learn from the UAE. The party’s treasurer Nick Candy runs a firm which has been in partnership with a UAE-state linked firm since 2024. Nadhim Zahawi sits on the board of an Abu Dhabi think tank alongside an array of the most senior UAE officials and is reportedly close to three brothers of the country’s despotic ruler Mohammed Bin Zayed. Reform’s leading lights have effusively praised the UAE’s governance model, defended it from criticism, and advanced its political agenda in the UK. GB News, whose two major shareholders – the Legatum Foundation and Paul Marshall – have strong links to the UAE, has been more than happy to broadcast UAE propaganda and was forced to pay damages in 2025 after airing a false claim about a UK charity by the UAE “disinfluencer” Amjad Taha. The UAE has responded in kind. When the UAE Minister for Foreign Affairs conducted an official visit to the UK in May, Farage was the only non-government figure granted an audience. UAE state media publicised the meeting, and said that they discussed “the strategic relations between the two countries and ways to enhance them in a manner that serves mutual interests.” For the UAE these ‘mutual interests’ largely concern its paranoia over political Islam, and in this regard the UAE-Reform alliance is part of a broad and troubling pattern. Following a crackdown on dissent at home in the aftermath of the Arab Spring, the UAE has offered material and political support to a range of violent and authoritarian actors willing to oppose the Muslim Brotherhood with no regard for the consequences. Its meddling in Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, and most notably Sudan, have been devastating. The UAE’s strategy of seeking out partners on the political fringes who it believes will advance its interests is not unique to Britain – it extends beyond the Middle East to Europe and the US. In France, it has offered clandestine support to Marine Le Pen through secret meetings, as well allegedly funding trips to the region after which Le Pen returned with a renewed focus on the UAE’s perceived enemies – Qatar and the Muslim Brotherhood. Left-wing opposition leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon has accused the UAE of smearing him and of “encouraging discrimination, hatred or violence”. In the US, the UAE actively supported the rise of Donald Trump, establishing itself as a key ally during both his first and second terms. Around these relationships sits a wider ecosystem of figures willing to amplify UAE narratives, that even extends to Andrew Tate and Tommy Robinson. Subscribe In Britain, the UAE has used a combination of aggressive diplomacy and illicit, disruptive tactics to achieve its policy goal of eliminating any perceived threat from political Islam. In 2012, for instance, it threatened to block billion-pound arms deals with the UK and stop inward investment if David Cameron did not act against the Muslim Brotherhood and rein in the BBC’s coverage of the group – going so far as to suggest, with no supporting evidence, that the group had infiltrated the BBC. It has financed smear campaigns against a high-profile UK charity and funded a mercenary to secretly surveil, and possibly assassinate, a British national on British soil. In Reform UK, the UAE has finally found an ally willing to not only ban the Muslim Brotherhood, but to publicly vilify the group and repeat the UAE’s claims that dangerous Muslims are a fifth column in British society, a narrative that aligns with the Islamophobia and anti-immigration sentiments that underpin Reform’s populist politics. The Rycroft review into foreign interference concluded that “hostile states and non-state actors have a clear incentive to attempt to undermine UK democracy.” The UAE’s network and alliance with Reform must be understood within that framework. It is a powerful, disruptive and deeply authoritarian actor with the resources and networks to intervene in our politics, and a track-record of doing so in a multitude of other countries. The evidence of the threat the UAE poses is overwhelming. The question is whether parliamentarians are willing to call the UAE out and demand action using the tools that the government has to respond. Placing the UAE on the “Enhanced Tier” of the Foreign Registration scheme alongside Russia and Iran would send a powerful signal to the UAE that its meddling will no longer be tolerated, and would place Farage’s next trips to the UAE under the scrutiny they deserve. Alex Carlen is research and advocacy manager at London based human rights organisation FairSquare and author of its new report Petro-populism: the UAE–Reform threat. Subscribe
The free-to-read Physics World Big Science Briefing 2026 is out now
Discover how big science is playing its part to tackle the climate crisis
In Rural Pennsylvania, Doctors Confront the Hidden Health Impacts of Environmental Disasters
Researchers are learning more about the long-term public health effects of living through extreme weather, especially in more isolated communities.
Hospitals are conveners, not dividers
In this climate, it has become too easy to point fingers without offering meaningful solutions to the country’s healthcare affordability crisis. To make matters worse, there is a tendency to turn our back on complex problems that don’t have easy answers in favor of oversimplified rhetoric that ignores reality. As chief executive of a rural […]
Covington Business Council’s Pat Frew is helping ‘drive the bus’ on a healthy business climate
By Andy Furman NKyTribune staff writer The Cincinnati Chapter of the American Marketing Association earlier this year named him a Marketing Legend. Some 30 years ago he was told he was best suited to…
California’s Business Climate: A closer look at the cost of doing business
California is home to one of the biggest economies in the world. But for businesses here, the experience of doing business in the state can be a little more com
Green policies just good politics, says UK minister
Transitioning to a low-carbon economy isn't just vital for the planet's future -- it's also good politics, according to Britain's climate minister, who argues the country's record-hot summer has galvanized public opinion like never before. Katie White, a member of the ruling Labour government, said the UK's right-wing parties had…
Journey delivers farewell blast in Seattle’s Climate Pledge Arena
Despite internal turmoil, the Rock & Roll Hall of Famers presented a strong, united front on their supposed farewell tour stop in Seattle.
Planetary crisis heightens global inequality of health opportunities
The worldwide inequality of health opportunities is being further heightened by the triple planetary crisis - climate change, loss of biodiversity and environmental pollution.
Stand Up for Science’s Climate Week Discussion Panel to Tackle Science, Democracy and Climate Tomorrow
Cross-disciplinary panel discussion will explore the interplay among scientific consensus, democratic governance, and the climate crisis.
Business Tenancies—Two Problems
The Law Commission proposes reforms to business tenancy laws, addressing pre-emption rights and intra-group lease assignments.
What CDC's new teen health survey shows, and what it skips
Teen suicide risk hit a 10-year low in 2025. Guns, sexual violence, and self-harm. Where are the 2025 data on transgender teens? Missing data changes public health policy. Teen suicide risk hit a 10-year low in 2025. CDC asked more than 10,000 high school students over 100 questions in spring 2025. Yesterday, it published a report covering a fraction of them. The report focsed on five areas: diet, physical activity, sleep, digital behaviors, and mental health, reflecting the priorities of the Make America Healthy Again movement. There was good news. Fewer teens seriously considered suicide in 2025 than in any survey year since 2015: 14%, down from 20% in 2023. Sadness fell. Underlying Conditions is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Subscribe Sports participation, which dipped to 49% in 2021, is back to its 2015 level of 58%. Daily PE fell from 27% to 20% in two years, while fewer students eat breakfast daily than a decade ago. Guns, sexual violence, and self-harm. The questionnaire is public, and it goes well beyond those five areas. Students answered questions about sexual violence, self-harm, and whether they got help when they felt sad or anxious. They said how quickly they could get a loaded gun. They reported whether food ran out at home and whether they felt close to people at school. There were questions about sexual identity, including whether they were transgender. The report did not publish any of the answers students gave to those questions. CDC posts the raw survey data online, so anyone can see what the report left out. The report doesn’t cover the health of sexual minority students. Among students who identified as gay, lesbian, bisexual, questioning, or another non-straight identity, persistent sadness fell from 66% to 57% between 2023 and 2025. Serious thoughts of suicide fell from 41% to 30%. Those drops were bigger than the ones among straight students, although the gap remains wide: 28% of straight students reported persistent sadness, about half the rate of LGBQ+ students. About 1 in 7 girls reported sexual violence in the past year. One in 6 students hurt themselves on purpose. Among students who needed help for sadness or anxiety, half rarely or never got it. And among students who had seriously considered suicide, 43% said they could get a loaded gun without an adult’s permission. One protective factor rose sharply. In 2023, 55% of students said they felt close to people at their school; in 2025, 63% did. CDC’s earlier research ties that kind of connection to better mental health. Where are the 2025 data on transgender teens? In 2023, CDC's national survey asked high school students, for the first time, whether they were transgender. Their answers are the only nationally representative data on transgender teens, and their mental health is by far the worst of any demographic. That year, 71% of transgender students reported persistent sadness, 54% seriously considered suicide, and 26% attempted it, compared with 38%, 18%, and 8% of cisgender students. But we don’t have 2025 data. The timing matters because students took the survey in spring 2025, as federal policy toward transgender youth shifted. On January 28th, an executive order directed agencies to end federal support for gender-affirming care for people under 19, and several hospitals paused that care within days. In February, the CDC said it would no longer process transgender identity data. Later in 2025, the Supreme Court upheld Tennessee’s ban on gender-affirming care for minors, and HHS ended the 988 Lifeline’s dedicated line for LGBTQ+ youth. Researchers disagree about how much state policy shapes trans teens’ mental health. A 2024 Trevor Project study estimated that anti-trans laws increased suicide attempts among trans and nonbinary youth. Critics dispute its methods and its estimates. The 2025 survey could have added national evidence to that fight. CDC collected the data but hasn’t publicly released it. Missing data changes public health policy. Surveillance works as a feedback loop. It can show officials whether their policies help or hurt. The CDC didn’t provide data on the students most exposed to transgender policy shifts. The report kept measures that frame health as personal choice, like fruit, breakfast, and sports. It left out measures that track policy, like gun access, mental healthcare, food at home, and school climate, all of which respond to what legislators and agencies decide. HHS did not respond to questions that I sent on September 21st.
Planetary crises deepen global health inequality, paper warns
The global inequality in health opportunities is being further heightened by the triple planetary crisis—climate change, biodiversity loss and environmental pollution. Addressing it is more than a question ...
Climate scientists fired by Trump step in to fill U.S. report gap
The future of national climate assessments remains murky after the Trump administration dismissed hundreds of scientists.
Bridging Climate Action and Health Security through One Health
Climate change is increasing the risk of infectious disease outbreaks, threatening health security around the world. A One Health approach is essential to managing growing risks at the intersection of people, animals, and the environment.
How Biotechnology Could Protect the Crops We Depend On
Crop biotechnology could protect vital food crops from disease, pests and climate stress, with bananas showing the potential of modern tools.
“Politics Are Desperately Important at the Moment”: Bill McKibben on Midterms, Trump & Climate Crisis
Ahead of the midterm elections, activist and writer Bill McKibben says he has been traveling across the United States with Third Act, the environmental group he founded to harness the power of seniors who care about the climate and democracy. “These elections are also starting to set the groundwork for 2028,” says McKibben, who calls the next U.S. presidential vote “maybe the last election that happens in a timeframe when we still really have an opportunity to affect some of the outcomes of these things.”
Scientists link fossil fuel producers to the West’s worsening water shortages » Yale Climate Connections
A new study blames 122 companies for contributing to severe drought in the region.
Drought and state neglect deepen health crisis for Peru’s recently contacted Matsés
A worsening convergence of drought driven by climate change, epidemic disease, and state neglect is creating a severe health emergency for the Indigenous Matsés people in the Peruvian Amazon. Mongabay staff writer Aimee Gabay traveled to Matsés territory to investigate the environmental threats to the region. Instead, she found Matsés communities suffering from severe outbreaks […]
Voters cite political climate, economy and homelessness as Oregon governor race nears
With Oregon’s governor race 43 days away, voters tell KATU they’re uneasy about the political climate. Fears about inflation, Social Security, homelessness and vote-by-mail shape the debate.
Green policies just good politics, says UK minister
Transitioning to a low-carbon economy isn't just vital for the planet's future -- it's also good politics, according to Britain's climate minister, who argues the country's record-hot summer has galva...
Key senators reject White House proposal on NIH grants
Sens. Susan Collins and Patty Murray are rejecting efforts by the Trump administration to give the White House control of National Institutes of Health grant funding.
Kamala Harris campaigning for Democrats in 2026 midterms as her 2028 decision looms
Harris has not announced any upcoming trips to South Carolina, where Democrats will hold their first primary. She has emphasized the importance of focusing on the midterms for now.
As The Deadline Nears, Civil Society Urges Spain To Nominate María Neira As WHO Chief
With Thursday’s 24 September deadline looming, international scientific societies and civil society leaders are pushing Spain to sponsor a last-minute WHO Director-General nomination for Dr María Neira. Endorsed by Nobel Peace Prize Laureate Adolfo Pérez Esquivel and Dr Carlos Ferreyra of Climate, Life and Health International, the petition urges Spanish ministers to register her candidacy before entries close.
‘Planetary boundaries’ necessary for flourishing of life have been massively breached, scientists warn
New report shows key indicators of Earth’s health are ‘outside the safe operating space’ as climate disaster looms
More than 12,000 power transformers could face flood risk as warming rises
SCE plans temperature monitors for underground circuits, while the report urges agencies, utilities and communities to use climate data in planning.
Wars, AI and climate change top agenda as leaders gather for U.N.
The general debate begins Tuesday and runs through Sept. 26.
Whether you like it or not, celebrities have an impact on politics
The global groundswell of support for Macklemore’s pro-Palestinian advocacy serves to remind us that maybe celebrity activism really is that deep after all, writes Cheek’s Varsha Yajman. Subscribe In the last week, publications, podcasts, and influencers that have either rarely or never spoken about Israel’s genocide in Palestine have flooded my social feed. And it was all because singer Ed Sheeran and his team dropped Macklemore as his opener for saying “Free Palestine” on stage. Millions raised, millions speaking up in support of Palestine - all of this confirming my view that, whether I like it or not, celebrities do have an impact on political outcomes. And this is interesting when much of the time celebrity activism can induce an eye roll - I love to see Charli XCX pointing out a Palestinian flag in the crowd, but it’s hardly the bold symbol of allyship that some fans would make it out to be. But there’s a line between healthy scepticism and outright dismissal - and I’d argue that the latter lets the rich and powerful off far too easily. For instance, actress Jennifer Lawrence, once outspoken about her political views, last year told The Times she no longer believes celebrities have a role to play: “Celebrities do not make a difference whatsoever on who people vote for. So then what am I doing? I’m just sharing my opinion on something that’s going to add fuel to a fire that’s ripping the country apart.” While it’s a narrative she might find comfort in, it simply is not true. Grassroots movements often garner worldwide attention when celebrities and other high-profile spokespeople bring a mainstream platform to their causes. And this frustrates me. We have had three years of a live-streamed genocide. Macklemore himself has been calling for a Free Palestine long before he booked the Sheeran concert. Yet it’s the high-profile fallout of the last week that finally seems to have made saying “Free Palestine” socially acceptable in the mainstream. It feels like the collective mood has shifted, where calling out censorship is now the obvious response - not just the business of ‘radical’ activists. To recap, Sheeran’s decision followed an ultimatum from billionaire Robert Kraft, owner of Gillette Stadium, one of the venues Sheeran was scheduled to perform at: either drop Macklemore as your opener after only two of the eight scheduled shows, or you do not play at any stadiums. Sheeran’s disappointing decision to stand on the side of billionaire-led censorship has ultimately seen a surge in support for Free Palestine. It began when all his openers and his backing band pulled out of Sheeran’s tour, in solidarity with Macklemore and with the Palestinian cause. It was met with an uproar of support from those who had never or barely touched politics before: influencers lip-syncing to Macklemore’s music, singers like Jack Antonoff singing “Free Palestine,” and publications and podcasts standing with Macklemore. And finally, we saw material support: Macklemore donated $1 million in profits from his two nights opening for Sheeran’s tour to several Palestinian aid groups and called for Sheeran and Kraft to match it, which they have since promised to do. We’ve also seen children’s entertainer Ms Rachel follow suit with a $1 million donation to Palestinian aid, and publication PopBase has donated $10,000. Anera, a humanitarian aid group working in Palestine, Lebanon, and Jordan, said donations since Macklemore’s announcement were more than triple this month’s daily average. The group’s Instagram page has also gained 8,000 followers. Macklemore far from the first celebrity to speak and participate in politics in the Western World. In 1924, singer Al Jolson supported Republican candidate Warren G. Harding for president, and decades later, celebrities such as Harry Belafonte, Lena Horne, and Aretha Franklin voiced their public support for the Civil Rights movement. More recently, in the lead-up to the 2024 US election, ‘The Daily Show with Trevor Noah partnered with the organisation Power the Polls to recruit poll workers to address shortages- a problem disproportionately affecting voters of colour. The campaign saw 170,000 new sign-ups - 35,000 of which came directly through the TV show’s link - resulting in the recruitment of 713,000 total poll workers that year, an almost three-fold increase on the organisation’s goal. Alongside recruiting workers, celebrities in the US (where voting in elections is not compulsory) have made a huge difference by calling for people to register to vote. Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Kamala Harris in 2024 saw over 400,000 visitors on the voter registration site within 24 hours of her Instagram post. In 2023, Swift had urged her fans to register, resulting in 35,000 new voter registrations. Similarly, Ariana Grande promoted voter registration in 2019 by setting up booths at concerts on the American leg of her tour, resulting in over 33,000 voters registering. And the same thing is happening closer to home. This year, musician Jack River successfully called for government action to ensure creatives in Australia do not have their work scraped by generative AI companies. Celebrity as the mediator between the punter and the politician Celebrity activism isn’t just a feel-good news story - research tells us it actually makes a difference. By directing attention to issues affecting the average person, like voting inaccessibility or a lack of action on a genocide, researchers Alfred Archer and Amanda Cawston state that “celebrities can play a useful bridging role between political elites and the people they represent”. Alternatively, in a world where talking about politics is “not cool,” or where people lack exposure or knowledge to engage with politics, celebrities can act as an educational resource or an entry point into the political world - when they speak up about an issue, their audience gets exposed to it. Olivia Rodrigo’s Daisy Chain Fields festival is a perfect example. Rodrigo partnered with twelve organisations focused on women’s issues, such as reproductive rights. These organisations had stalls at the festival for people to meet them and were also featured heavily on social media, giving their issues global attention and raising $20 million for the organisations. We have also seen celebrities at award shows such as the Emmys wearing F*CK ICE pins, referring to the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s treatment and detainment of people - generally people of colour. When celebrities speak up about political issues in public forums, they put the issue at the forefront of mainstream media, rally their supporters, and make it clear that, however much they disagree, the government cannot simply ignore it. Our over-reliance on celebrities versus our politicians As much as I love seeing my favourite celebrity use their platform for a good cause, there is an important question to ask: not whether celebrity activism is good or bad, but whether we should have to rely on celebrities. And the answer would, in an ideal world, be no. In an ideal world, or merely a just world, action on Palestine would’ve happened decades ago, climate change would be taken seriously, and most importantly, people would understand their democratic rights. However, that is not our reality. Only around 28 per cent of Australian Year 10 students reach proficiency in civics and citizenship. In the US, almost two-thirds of people under 30 say high school civics education didn’t prepare them to understand voting deadlines, how to research candidates, or how to vote by mail. When civics education is weak, our trust in these institutions and our understanding of change-making processes also decline. This is where celebrity steps in and becomes our main source of reliance. As Mary R. Connelly notes in _The Tartan, “_Celebrities will always be involved in campaigns in one form or another, but their presence is not what causes people to vote blindly. The lack of political engagement and literacy is what allows celebrities to wield their influence on the political sphere so impactfully.” About the author Varsha Yajman is the Digital Content Producer at Cheek Media. She is a youth advocate and lawyer with a background in climate litigation and is passionate about looking at the intersection between race, climate justice, and mental health. Thanks for reading Cheek Media Co. ! This post is public so feel free to share it. Share
How Saudi oil scientists ended up working on the world’s most important climate reports
Guardian investigation reveals fossil fuel links of IPCC authors, with experts declaring the body’s conflict of interest policy ‘not fit for purpose’
Letter: Science fiction becomes climate change reality
From John Barnie, Aberystwyth, Ceredigion, Wales, UK
Ferrari Staggers: Criticism Grows Against Vasseur
The Italian team is living in a climate of internal tension over the results and the versions about a broken relationship between the team principal and the CEO. The performance of the SF-26 and the gap to Mercedes fuel the discontent in Maranello.
Why politicians should pay more attention to the polls (reprise)
Welcome to the 231st edition of The Week in Polls (TWIP), a polling newsletter that always welcomes new readers. So please don’t keep TWIP a secret; share it with your friends and colleagues: Share The Week in Polls With all the stories swirling around Reform, JL Partners and political polling, I am finally tearing myself away from talking about the regulation of polling this week - and instead re-running a previous piece reminding us why the solution to problems with polls isn’t simply to ban or ignore them. Rather, we need them to play a vital role in making our politics - and politicians - better. This is followed by summaries of the latest national voting intention polls, seat projections from MRPs and the most recent party leader ratings. Subscribers who pay for the full edition can also read ten insights from the latest polls and analyses, including: A trio of organisations and a pair of professors have been casting their eyes over the Liberal Democrats ahead of the party’s autumn conference; What impact did the summer heatwave have on views on climate change? and Which wins out between chocolate and cheese? If you are not yet a paid subscriber, you can read all ten by starting a free trial now: Get FREE 7-day trial For more polling news as it comes in ahead of next week’s edition, you can also follow The Week in Polls on Bluesky. Picking up on my doubt last week about whether or not 35% of British train travellers have tried to order a takeaway for delivery to a railway station or carriage, thank you to reader Iain, who has been in touch to say he has done just that… in India. Another quick pair of updates, this time on the controversies around Reform and polling. Politico has a further scoop - “Farage aide caught in donor sting attended Egypt retreat with JL Partners” - and Ian Dunt has written about the problems with polling too: “Seeing the response of many polling experts in the last few weeks suggests that they are nervous about what is happening and keen to mitigate against it. Seeing the response of journalists, which has been basically non-existent, suggests the precise opposite.” My usual reminder as well: please do hit reply if you’ve spotted a poll, focus group or new piece of poll-based research that you think should be in contention for coverage in a future edition. Thank you! And with that, on with the show. How politicians get public opinion wrong I have written before about the benefits that come from widespread availability of high-quality political polling. We need more polls and more good coverage of polls. However, what I’ve not dug into before is the research into how accurately politicians estimate public opinion on issues. Thankfully we have academic research to tell us. First, the bad news: We present results from a study of 866 politicians in four countries.1 Politicians were asked to estimate the percentage of public support for various policy proposals. Comparing more than 10,000 estimations with actual levels of public support, we conclude that politicians are quite inaccurate estimators of people’s preferences. They make large errors and even regularly misperceive what a majority of the voters wants. Politicians are hardly better at estimating public preferences than ordinary citizens. Walgrave, S., Jansen, A., Sevenans, J., Soontjens, K., Pilet, J.B., Brack, N., Varone, F., Helfer, L., Vliegenthart, R., van der Meer, T., Breunig, C., Bailer, S., Sheffer, L. & Loewen, P.J. (2023a), “Inaccurate Politicians: Elected Representatives’ Estimations of Public Opinion in Four Countries”, The Journal of Politics, 85(1): 209-222. The bad news is not quite as bad as that makes it sound because, when asked whether the majority of public opinion was for or against various policies, politicians picked the wrong option ‘only’ 29% of the time. However, this included getting it wrong even when public opinion is far from evenly split on an issue: They do not only get it wrong when the public is divided and hard to read (e.g., when there is a 51%:49% distribution). Seventy percent of the misplacements occur for policies with a relatively clear distribution of at least 60% (dis)agreeing citizens. Moreover, the public scored only slightly worse than politicians, picking the wrong option 2.7 out of 8 times on average, compared with 2.3 times for politicians. Turning to the other measure of accuracy (not which side is in the lead but what the percentage support is for each side), politicians on average were 18 percentage points out in their guesses. Again, this was only slightly better than the public, whose error came in at 21 percentage points.2 Further research, using the same mix of countries, gives a little more comfort about how (in)accurate perceptions are: We show that politicians have a better understanding of public opinion when they think the issue matters to voters. Further, when an issue is personally important to politicians they more accurately estimate their party supporters’ opinions. The results confirm that politicians hold more accurate perceptions of voters’ preferences when they think it is important to do so but not necessarily when the issues actually are important to voters. Butler, C., Walgrave, S., Soontjens, K. & Loewen, P.J. (2024), “Politicians are better at estimating public opinion when they think it is more salient”, Party Politics: 1–13. Even so, it’s not a good picture. The remedy for this? Politicians should spend more time reading the polls. So forward this newsletter to someone you know… Share For a more general argument against banning polls, see my 2024 piece. Is “Let Bartlet Be Bartlet” good advice or not? The latest episode of my Political Fictions podcast heads across the Atlantic for a dip into one of the political TV classics: Mark and Cory talk about a giant of American political drama for the first time this week, as they tackle The West Wing. They talk about Let Bartlet Be Bartlet, the nineteenth episode of series one. In it, Mark wonders if The West Wing is actually the epitome of the “Boris Johnson school of politics”, Cory outmanoeuvres Mark into confirming we will record a Christmas Special about Love, Actually and they debate whether the central message of this episode has been misunderstood. Cory’s email newsletter is Paperback Rioter and Mark has a family of email newsletters. Subscribe to our newsletter for some additional bonus content and to get alerted whenever a new episode comes out. Our theme tune is “Monkeys Spinning Monkeys” by Kevin MacLeod/incompetech.com and licensed under the Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License. You can also listen to our episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, the web or YouTube. Elsewhere from me… [ A Lord's Eye View How to fix the problem of money in our politics Welcome to my latest update on work in the House of Lords. This time I am taking a look at how our political system is regulated, and the protections we need to keep democracy safe from becoming simply a contest to see who has the biggest bank account… Read more 5 days ago · 3 likes · 2 comments · Mark Pack ](https://lordseyeview.substack.com/p/how-to-fix-the-problem-of-money-in?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web&embedding_publication_id=1269283) If you spot a factual error… Borrowing an idea from Stuart Ritchie and others, if you spot a factual error in an edition of this newsletter, I will give you a free 12-month subscription to the paid-for version (or an extra 12 months on your existing one). Factual errors qualify, but grammatical errors or disagreements over interpretation do not, and my decision is final. Messages about both of those are always welcome, though. Voting intention and leadership ratings Here are the latest voting intention polls from different pollsters. It is all pretty static at the moment, with a small and consistent Labour lead in nearly all the polls. The table is also online here, along with explanations about what is included. It is updated regularly throughout the week as new polls are released. Next are the seat projections from MRPs, also sorted by fieldwork dates, listing those which are based on dedicated fieldwork (rather than models based on averages of other polls). Because such MRPs are published infrequently, some of the entries below are quite old. Finally, here is a summary of leadership ratings, with a graph from PollCheck: Detailed numbers from the latest polls are online here, and both that and the graph are updated regularly throughout the week as new data comes out. For historical figures on both voting intention and leader approval stretching back to the 1930s, including Parliamentary by-election polls, see PollBase. Catch up on the previous two editions [ ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/a-crisis-point-for-political-polling) [ A crisis point for political polling Sep 13 ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/a-crisis-point-for-political-polling) [ Read full story ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/a-crisis-point-for-political-polling) [ ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/extra-questions-about-the-polls-in) [ Extra questions about the polls in Reform’s funding scandal Sep 6 ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/extra-questions-about-the-polls-in) [ Read full story ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/extra-questions-about-the-polls-in) My privacy policy and other legal information are available here. Links to purchase books or other items are usually affiliate links which pay a commission for each sale. Quotes from social media messages are occasionally lightly edited for punctuation and clarity. If you are subscribed to other email lists of mine, please note that unsubscribing from this one will not automatically remove you from the others. If you wish to be removed from all my lists, simply reply to this email to let me know. A quintet of Lib Dem polling analyses, and 9 other polling insights you shouldn’t miss The following ten findings from the most recent polls and analyses are only for subscribers who pay for the full edition, but you can sign up for a free trial to read them straight away. Ahead of the start of Liberal Democrat conference, we have a trio of organisations and a pair of professors with pieces out about Ed Davey’s party:
Scientists hope deeper-rooted soybeans can withstand climate extremes and store more carbon
Scientists have explored ways to remove carbon from the atmosphere, including through air capture, changes to ocean chemistry and reforestation. Now, researchers are testing deeper-rooted soybeans.
Global business leaders to convene at COP31 forum in New York
The COP31 Global Business Forum – New York Dialogue is set to take place this week, gathering business leaders for key talks ahead of the U.N. climate...
A Cloudy Climate Mystery Over Antarctica Has Scientists Rethinking Their Models
Researchers compare observations with leading climate models to identify errors and help improve future climate predictions. Some simulations put too many low clouds over the Southern Ocean, yet still underestimate how much heat reaches the surface below. Observations from an Antarctic research voyage suggest that fixing the cloud count alone will not solve the problem.
Analysis: Moyes' Toffees moving in right direction
Manager David Moyes will be delighted at the start his Everton side have made to the campaign. The Toffees won none of their final seven games as they finished 13th last season and missed out on the European qualification that at one stage had been within their grasp. Everton also suffered a tough end to the transfer window, with key attacking midfielder Iliman Ndiaye going to Manchester City in a £65m deal and striker Beto, their top scorer last season, leaving for Fiorentina for £14.6m.
In January 2026, researchers completed a drilling project beneath 1,716 feet of ice in West Antarctica, recovering evidence of an ocean that once lay open to sunlight
The discovery rewrites Antarctica's climate history—and raises urgent questions about how quickly ice sheets can collapse.
How narwhal 'scientists' track Arctic warming
The fight against climate change has a new, spiral-tusked ally: the narwhal.
The Watch: Drought-Flood Whiplash Intensifies As Climate Warms
Frequent extreme shifts in weather challenge communities’ preparedness…lagging protections pose health risks as data centers boom…nearly half of all young Medicaid users could lose coverage under new policies…and more
‘Summer of truth’: will political leaders act as climate chaos comes knocking?
Amid record-shattering heatwaves and popular demand for climate action, why are politicians often timid or in denial?
Big Seven Roundtable connects Lima business leaders with state officials
State officials made their way to Lima today as part of the Lima/Allen County Chamber of Commerce’s Big Seven Roundtable.
Scientists hope deeper-rooted soybeans can withstand climate extremes and store more carbon
Research scientist Ashish Rajurkar kneels in the dirt, lifting a large clod of soil tangled around a soybean plant. He knocks away pieces of earth from the plant's roots, which slope straight down instead ...
Environmental and Public Health Groups Sue Over the Trump EPA’s Latest Attempt to Bolster Fossil Fuels
Environmental and public health groups are suing the Trump administration over its most recent move to eliminate protections against climate-warming pollution. The Environmental Protection Agency announced a plan on Monday, finalized in the Federal Register on Thursday, to revoke most of a Biden-era rule to limit greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel power plants. The […]
Big Seven Roundtable connects Lima business leaders with state officials
State agency directors and representatives met with Lima-area business leaders during the Lima/Allen County Chamber of Commerce's Big Seven Roundtable. The event focused on sharing information and resources to support Ohio's business community.
MIT researchers are mapping extreme weather risks — and building tools to act on them
MIT researchers are translating climate science into actionable tools for extreme weather preparedness. The Climate Grand Challenges project has produced papers, digital tools, and datasets to help planners and utilities assess flood, hurricane, wildfire, and heat risks.
Scientists hope deeper-rooted soybeans can withstand climate extremes and store more carbon
During droughts, they hope the roots will allow plants to access water below the top layer of soil.
Billy Porter gets candid on cancel culture, teases 'Hunger Games' role
Billy Porter has spent four decades speaking out. But doing so now, in today's cultural climate, he says, can come at a cost. "It's easy when it's easy. What are
Scientists hope deeper-rooted soybeans can withstand climate extremes and store more carbon
CHAMPAIGN, Ill. (AP) — Research scientist Ashish Rajurkar kneels in the dirt, lifting a large clod of soil tangled around a soybean plant. He knocks away pieces of earth from the plant's roots, which slope straight down instead of out to the side like typical soybean plants.
Scientists hope deeper-rooted soybeans can withstand climate extremes and store more carbon
For years, scientists have explored ways to remove carbon from the atmosphere, including through direct air capture, changes to ocean chemistry so seawater can absorb more carbon and reforestation.
Scientists hope deeper-rooted soybeans can withstand climate extremes and store more carbon
For years, scientists have explored ways to remove carbon from the atmosphere, including through direct air capture, changes to ocean chemistry so seawater can absorb more carbon and reforestation. Now,
Scientists hope deeper-rooted soybeans can withstand climate extremes and store more carbon
For years, scientists have explored ways to remove carbon from the atmosphere, including through direct air capture, changes to ocean chemistry so seawater can absorb more carbon and reforestation.
Scientists hope deeper-rooted soybeans can withstand climate extremes and store more carbon
For years, scientists have explored ways to remove carbon from the atmosphere, including through direct air capture, changes to ocean chemistry so seawater can absorb more carbon and reforestation
Five Ways the World of the Dinosaurs Looked Different From Ours, Beyond the Presence of the 'Terrible Lizards'
Earth has changed dramatically since the Age of Dinosaurs, from its climate to geography and animal life
For many Pittsburgh residents, wet basements pose health risks » Yale Climate Connections
Chronic moisture can create ideal conditions for mold that can trigger asthma attacks, allergies, and rashes.
Burlington’s headquarters move to Philadelphia puts spotlight on New Jersey’s difficult business climate, experts say
Gov. Mikie Sherrill has defended her growth strategy, but advocates say the state must do more to boost competitiveness.
Science Behind the Forecast: How bees are adjusting to climate change
Every week WAVE 3 meteorologist Tawana Andrew breaks down what we know and what we don't about the climate and weather here in Louisville.
The Iran war is driving clean energy development. It’s not enough to help the planet, yet
Countries are embracing clean power and taking steps to use less energy because of the war against Iran, but it is not yet enough to help address climate change. When the U.S. and Israel launched the war in February, some backers of renewables opined it could drive a green transition as oil and gas prices […]
Wildfire smoke poses greater health risks than other pollution
As climate change drives more frequent and intense wildfires, researchers at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai have published two large-scale studies showing that wildfire smoke may pose greater health risks than other sources of air pollution, with higher risks of hospitalization for cardiovascular and respiratory disease and poorer survival among patients with lung cancer.
Environment, health groups sue over Trump move to wipe out climate rules for power plants
Environmental and public health-focused organizations are suing the Trump administration over its move to wipe out most climate regulations on coal and gas power plants. The Natural Resources Defen…
Protect Your Home and Business this National Preparedness Month with Rainbow Restoration®
The U.S. experienced 12 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disasters during the first half of 2026 alone, causing at least $31.9 billion in damage, according to Climate Central's mid-year update. As September marks National Preparedness Month and the transition to cooler weather brings the potential for severe storms, tornadoes, flooding and early winter weather, Rainbow Restoration®, a Neighborly® company with more than 45 years of restoration experience, is encouraging homeowners and
Protect Your Home and Business this National Preparedness Month with Rainbow Restoration®
/PRNewswire/ -- The U.S. experienced 12 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disasters during the first half of 2026 alone, causing at least $31.9...
Kim Stanley Robinson won’t read aloud his climate disaster scene from ‘The Ministry for the Future’
In the opening chapter of Kim Stanley Robinson's “The Ministry for the Future,” a prolonged heat wave grips northern India.
Kim Stanley Robinson won't read aloud his climate disaster scene from 'The Ministry for the Future'
In the opening chapter of Kim Stanley Robinson's “The Ministry for the Future,” a prolonged heat wave grips northern India | WWL
Scientists discover a mysterious new frog hiding in the Amazon
Scientists discovered a new frog species in the flooded forests of the western Amazon, distinguishing it from nearly identical relatives through DNA and its unique call. Adenomera varcena highlights how much Amazonian biodiversity remains hidden even as habitat loss and climate change threaten these poorly understood species.
Veralto Announces Climate Targets Validated by the Science Based Targets initiative
/PRNewswire/ -- Veralto Corporation (NYSE: VLTO), a global leader in essential water and product quality solutions dedicated to Safeguarding the World's Most...
How Ohio’s business climate became a flashpoint in the governor’s race
Experts say Ohio's business climate—and Vivek Ramaswamy's tax proposals—are far more complicated than thought.
Whales Have Rebounded in the Southern Ocean. Scientists Worry Commercial Fishing Could Threaten Their Comeback.
Researchers are calling for stricter regulations on krill fishing in Antarctica as climate change shrinks the habitat of whales’ primary prey.
California Eyes Prison Heat Protections That Fall Short of Workplace Standards
California is crafting weaker heat protections for prisons than other workplaces, citing billions in costs to cool aging institutions as climate and health risks increase. It’s a second-class standard, health and safety advocates say, and would leave correctional workers more susceptible to heat illness.
Hubbard Homestead Park Sports Court Opens
Seattle Parks and Recreation (SPR) is happy to announce the new sports court at Hubbard Homestead Park is complete! We are celebrating with the community and our partners, One Roof Foundation, the philanthropic arm of the Seattle Kraken and Climate Pledge Arena, on Thursday, September 17 from 3 to 5 pm. Please join us at […]
Climate crisis likely behind devastating Nepal-Tibet floods that killed more than 1,300, first study finds
Scientists say global heating was a destabilising factor in collapse of 200,000 sq metre glacier in August
Scientists challenge US NIH grant screening as unconstitutional
A group of scientists filed a class-action lawsuit on Wednesday against the U.S. National Institutes of Health, alleging the agency is unconstitutionally screening research grants to suppress viewpoints the Trump administration disfavors on topics like diversity, gender identity and climate change.
What Does the Science of Climate Change Really Look Like?
Editor’s Note: This is the second in a three-part series on how the Right should think about environmental and climate policy. Read Chris Barnard on Reclaiming Environmental Policy from the Left. More than a decade ago, the world’s governments negotiated and signed the Paris Climate Agreement, committing to hold global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius. In the following years, climate had immense cultural power. Greta Thunberg emerged. Fortune 500 companies established net-zero plans. The U.S. got the Inflation Reduction Act. Then the pendulum swung back. President Donald Trump returned to the Oval Office, speaking of green energy as a “scam” and carbon footprints as a “hoax” and on all matters of international policy emphasizing bilateral engagement and power over globalism and cooperation. The technology companies that had been at the forefront of net-zero pledges and green leadership discovered the importance of all-of-the-above power to their visions for artificial intelligence and began quietly postponing or removing their targets. On the left side of the political spectrum, rising concerns about inflation and cost pushed climate lower down in the stated priorities of voters and stump speeches of politicians. The moment is ripe for a reset on the politics of climate change and for conservatives especially to chart a course that acknowledges and addresses the real challenges in plausible ways. So what should we think about climate change as we enter a post-peak climate era? If it is neither an apocalypse nor a hoax, what will hold up as a durable view of climate change? And how does it project onto the concerns and priorities of the right-of-center’s emerging coalition? New to Commonplace_? Subscribe below to get the magazine in your inbox._ Subscribe A Solid Foundation As the politics and economics of climate careened over the past ten years, the physics carried on regardless. In 2015, the year the Paris Climate Agreement was adopted, the world emitted 41.2 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide. By 2025, emissions had risen only 2.4%, to 42.2 gigatonnes, because falling emissions from land use offset increasing emissions from fossil fuels. But slow growth in annual emissions is not rapid decline, let alone net-zero, so carbon dioxide kept accumulating in the atmosphere, going from 399 to 426 parts per million. Global temperature kept rising too, from about 1.1 degrees Celsius above the 1850–1900 average in 2015, to 1.4 degrees above it in 2025. None of this should surprise anyone. Even most prominent skeptics, like the authors of the 2025 report commissioned by the Trump administration’s Department of Energy, accept the basic physics. Carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere at industrial volumes accumulates and traps heat that would otherwise escape to space. That heat warms the upper ocean and increases temperatures at the surface. Increased ocean heat and melting of land ice cause sea levels to rise. Changes in the climate become noticeable to us as subtle shifts in temperature and precipitation, seasons arriving early or late, changes in the surrounding ecosystem, and weather extremes. The much more meaningful debate is not about whether these things are happening, but about what it all means for human societies. (While it is a proxy measure of overall risk, no one experiences global surface temperature.) This debate invokes at least three interesting questions: how much today’s warming is showing up in regional climate trends, how much more warming we should anticipate, and how extreme weather events can be understood in the context of climate change. Recent scientific advances give us new insights into each of these, but there is still much to learn. This is the context in which the next generation of conservative leaders will be the first to deal with significant climate change as a fact, not a forecast. It will be with them for their entire careers. Our evolving scientific picture of climate change will come from weather and climate records stretching further into the past, new kinds of observations in the present, better modeling tools for the future, and simply more time to observe the emergence of climate signals and their tangible effects on ecosystems and communities in the United States and around the world. The policy landscape will be shaped by not only the impacts of changes in the climate, but also by the ways in which societies respond and by the emergence of new technologies for both altering the trajectory of emissions and adapting to new climate realities. Global climate records now show the fingerprints of warming in different phenomena around much of the world. The IPCC, in its most recent assessment report, documents warming trends over all land regions, even as natural variability adds substantial variance to local trends. And the highest temperature extremes have become more intense and frequent, almost everywhere, since the 1950s. Scientists are highly confident that these changes are attributable to human influence. But confidence in detecting trends and attributing them to human influence degrades across heavy precipitation events; drought trends are heterogeneous and not attributable to human activity with great confidence. For hurricanes, tornadoes, and other severe storms there is even less confidence in trends or their relationship to climate change. In general, a fair summary of the evidence is that for well-observed phenomena, like surface temperature or heavy rainfall, with a clear relationship to warming, our multidecadal observations are consistent with human influence overcoming natural variability over long time periods and extremes increasing. For regions that are sampled more sparsely, or phenomena with a higher noise-to-signal ratio, we will need to observe them longer to understand the magnitude of the climate signal or improve dynamical understanding using models and observations together. But for Climate For those who can’t wait, we also have new techniques that attempt to understand the role climate change has in influencing particular extreme events. When the climate is changing and disaster strikes, it is natural to ask whether that disaster was somehow “caused” by climate change. For scientists and policymakers acting in good faith, answering that question helps develop a more accurate picture of the problem, how it may be getting worse, and what preparations we should be making to respond to it. It may, at some point, give some weight to how liability is assigned by courts or adaptation funding is distributed by society. But how we ask this question is extremely important. It is easy to get the analysis wrong by discounting the role that meteorology plays. As meteorologist Theodore Shepherd explained in a clear 2016 review of climate attribution methods, “if a weather or climate event is truly extreme in the present climate, then perforce it requires unusual meteorological conditions, which means that climate change is at most a contributing factor.” Share Scientists have two ways to probe climate as a contributing factor, both of which have entered media coverage of extreme weather events. One asks a probabilistic question: How much more likely is a particular event (e.g., a temperature record over a particular area) amid global warming? The answer involves using historical records and computer simulations to estimate the likelihood of such an event in both a changed and a preindustrial climate. The findings are less about the specific event, and more about events of that nature. The other question is: How has the changed climate affected the specific event in question? Here, scientists try to understand what a similar event would have looked like in the preindustrial climate. This is sometimes called the storyline approach, where the story is the specific meteorological details of the event. These methods offer ways to test the intuition of scientists about real weather extremes. In late June and early July of 2021, a persistent high-pressure ridge, or heat dome, set up over the Pacific Northwest and an extraordinary heat wave affected the area from Oregon to British Columbia. For six days, it shattered temperature records across the region and hundreds died from heat-related causes, in an area where such high, and persistently high, temperatures were well outside of experience and many live without air conditioning. Scientists have studied its connection to climate change using multiple approaches. This specific event was created by a rare combination of meteorological factors, a strong high-pressure ridge created the conditions for extreme heat, which occurred on top of higher average temperatures in the region from global warming. Probabilistic analyses showed that climate change increased the likelihood of such an event by at least 8-fold to more than 100-fold. One standout example found that such an event had effectively zero probability of occurring in the preindustrial climate. The enormous range in these assessments reflects how hard it is to estimate probabilities of events at the tail of the historical record. Estimates of the effect on the temperature of the event are more clustered. A recent review paper documents how multiple methodologies have found a positive influence, roughly 1-2 degrees Celsius of an anomaly that exceeded 15 degrees, of climate change on the temperature magnitude of the event. Multiple studies have investigated and found some positive influence of climate change in other extreme events. Attribution studies found climate likely increased the heavy rainfall that accompanied Hurricane Helene in North Carolina and surrounding regions in 2024. The extensive fires that struck Los Angeles in 2025 illustrate how the causal chain can become messy, though. Studies do detect a positive influence of climate on the event’s likelihood, but while climate change likely contributed to underlying aridity, it would not have played a role in the heavy winds or land practices that preceded disaster. These event attribution studies will become more common for extreme, or damaging, weather events. They can be produced quickly, and often are reported before peer review. As the Pacific Northwest heatwave example shows, when multiple methods converge on a positive attribution, the finding should probably carry some weight even if you have to be careful about accepting the results from a single study. I expect that as climate change proceeds and the climate thus departs further from a preindustrial counterfactual, the influence will become more detectable across a variety of extreme events and more easily identified. This will be used to cast blame, but can also be used to inform how communities and society adapt to ongoing change. We May Still Be Surprised One positive development, insofar as less climate change is better, has been that our central estimates for future climate change should probably be revised downward. Mostly, that is because the high-end warmings that scientists regularly analyzed about ten to 20 years ago, driven by high emissions throughout the twenty-first century, now appear to be somewhere between unlikely and impossible. At one time, the upper end of mainstream climate projections extended well into 4 to 6 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of this century, which, models suggest, would have wrought enormous real-world damage. Current energy and policy trends now point toward 2.5 or 3 degrees. Damages and risks are commonly modeled as increasing steeply with more warming, so this is already a better-than-previously-expected outcome for the climate (which is independent of the physical response to emissions). But we should maintain a wide range for plausible outcomes and prepare for the possibility of being surprised. Emissions trajectories are subject to deep uncertainty, the physical climate response is still developing, and whatever change occurs in the climate will then be mediated through unpredictable economic, social, and political institutions. Over the past decade, the pace of warming surprised some keen observers and appeared to accelerate, though not yet outside the range of expectation provided by climate models. The reasons for that apparent acceleration are being actively studied (as was the apparent pause in warming from 1998 to 2012), but no single driver has emerged. Some blame it on the El Niño, variability which would have no bearing on climate. Some think it is a result of factories in East Asia and global shipping fleets cutting aerosol emissions, which in the strongest version of the argument would indicate higher climate sensitivity to carbon-dioxide emissions. Others are more measured, not yet ready to draw solid conclusions as to whether climate projections require revision. We will have to see. Long-Term Thinking Climate change asks us to think over long time scales. But the pace of human-driven warming is compressing a large global change into a century. Changing weather patterns and extreme events are already causing adjustment costs and damages and will do more. Adaptation will help, but it is not free. For some communities, these costs will erode livelihoods and well-being, and may force migration. Are we prepared for large-scale managed retreats in the United States? Thankfully, American wealth, geographical diversity, and moderate climates may leave us better prepared than many around the world. But wealthy countries can still suffer serious disruption from narrowly concentrated costs, even if they appear entirely manageable in aggregate. Readers of Commonplace are familiar with the challenges of rapidly adapting to economic forces. The displacement that came from the China Shock is barely perceptible in aggregate GDP and employment data, but it affected millions of people and those people were far less mobile than economic models tended to assume. Deindustrialization rippled through the nation with enormous effects for not only our economic vitality, but also our national security. The forces surrounding climate change may not be so different; the world gets richer and must accept some diffuse costs. Those may be modest overall, but cause all manner of unpredictable effects with which policymakers must cope. In the case of the China Shock, our faith in a growing pie served us poorly. We’ll need to do better on climate. Leave a comment
Florida Climate Week returns with hands-on science in North Palm Beach
Florida Climate Week returns Oct. 5 to 11 with events like a research vessel tour to promote sustainable solutions.
Florida Climate Week returns with hands-on marine science
Florida Climate Week returns Oct. 5 to 11 with events like a research vessel tour to promote sustainable solutions.
Florida Climate Week returns with hands-on marine science
Florida Climate Week returns Oct. 5 to 11 with events like a research vessel tour to promote sustainable solutions.
Discussion Panel Tackles Science, Democracy & Climate at NYC Climate Week
Cross-disciplinary panel discussion will explore the interplay between scientific consensus, democratic governance, and the climate crisis.
Discussion Panel Tackles Science, Democracy & Climate at NYC Climate Week
Cross-disciplinary panel discussion will explore the interplay between scientific consensus, democratic governance, and the climate crisis.
Former congressman Sander Levin endorses El-Sayed for U.S. Senate in Michigan
In a statement, Levin said he was aligned with El-Sayed on climate change, trade, health care and other issues despite his “significant disagreement” with El-Sayed’s views on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Investors get down to business as Climate Week returns to New York
A year ago, investors arrived in New York for the annual Climate Week confab ready to regroup after digesting the scope of damage by an incoming Trump administration bent on rolling back climate progress. This year, the mood is decidedly down to business.
Silver touts Climate Pledge Arena as NBA-ready facility as expansion talks continue
NBA commissioner Adam Silver says Seattle's Climate Pledge Arena could host a team now as a decision on league expansion nears.
What climate change politics can teach us about the AI apocalypse debate: Philip Bump
Philip Bump argues that the politics around AI risk, China and corporate power carry familiar echoes from the climate change fight.
AI apocalypse debate echoes climate politics: Philip Bump
Philip Bump argues that the politics around AI risk, China and corporate power carry familiar echoes from the climate change fight.
Arctic climate report set for publication despite loss of federal support
The American Geophysical Union is taking over management of the Arctic Report Card after the Trump administration abruptly ended support from NOAA.
One Couple’s Wedding Venue Struggle Exposes Maine’s Hostile Business Climate
Governmental hurdles in Vassalboro are proving just how challenging it can be for aspiring business owners in Maine.
Here’s What the Science Really Says About the Health and Climate Risks of Carbon Pollution
The Trump Administration has rolled back a major climate rule, falsely claiming greenhouse gas emissions from power plants do not impact the climate or human health.
Here’s What the Science Really Says About the Health and Climate Risks of Carbon Pollution
The Trump Administration has rolled back a major climate rule, falsely claiming greenhouse gas emissions from power plants do not impact the climate or human health.