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With Rico Dowdle gone, Panthers need production from backup RBs
Carolina's run-first offense will need backups Jonathon Brooks, Trevor Etienne and AJ Dillon to support the RB1.
What New York’s primary upheaval means for Democrats: Join Friday’s Whole Hog
Democrats are still feeling the political aftershocks of New York’s primaries on Tuesday night, including New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani-backed victories. What could it signal for the party? Pl…
Sports quiz of the week: heat, animals, money and a big week at the World Cup
Have you followed the news in football, cricket, tennis, rugby, golf, athletics and cycling?
Warren Buffett Bought A Business For $1.7B ‘Over The Phone Without Ever Meeting The People There’ Using The ‘Most Valuable Skill’ He Learned
Buying a company for $1.7 billion without meeting management sounds like the kind of decision that would keep lawyers busy for months. Warren Buffett did it over the phone. Speaking at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in 2003, Berkshire Hathaway Chair...
Scientists stunned by signs of ancient life in a place no one expected
Scientists exploring ancient seafloor rocks in Morocco discovered mysterious wrinkle patterns where they were never expected to occur. These structures are normally linked to microbial mats in shallow, sunlit waters, yet the rocks formed hundreds of feet below the surface in darkness. Evidence indicates that chemosynthetic microbes created the wrinkles, revealing that deep-ocean microbial ecosystems may have been more widespread than previously thought.
Why Pollinators Matter for Human Health | Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
New research shows that wild insect pollinators play a critical role in nutrition and livelihoods.
Starlink veterans launch startup to broaden megaconstellation ownership
Former SpaceX engineers who helped build and scale Starlink have launched a startup aiming to deliver megaconstellations for governments and companies seeking more control over space-based infrastructure.
Sweden and WHO launch new long-term initiative to transform Ukraine’s health system
WHO and the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida) have launched a new multi-year cooperation project to support the long-term recovery and transformation of Ukraine’s health system. The new project, “Ukraine’s Health System Transformation Initiative: Strengthening Health Governance, Health Financing and Service Delivery for Long-Term Recovery”, was launched at the Ukraine Recovery Conference 2026 in Gdansk, Poland on 26 June, and will run from June 2026 to 2029. Sweden will contribute approximately US$ 26 million (240 million Swedish krona) to support this project. This contribution forms part of Sweden’s broader support to Ukraine through the Team Europe approach, which brings together the European Union, its Member States, and key partners such as the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Enlargement and Eastern Neighbourhood and Enabel, and WHO as lead health agency, to support Ukraine’s recovery, reform agenda and European integration.“Ukraine’s health recovery cannot be measured only by what is rebuilt, but by whether people can count on the health system when they need it most. The scale of the task is immense, with health reconstruction and modernization needs estimated at US$ 19.4 billion over the next decade. Sweden’s US$ 26 million contribution to Ukraine’s Health System Transformation Initiative is a timely investment in the institutions, financing and services that will support Ukraine’s long-term recovery and European integration. WHO remains a trusted partner of the Government of Ukraine in advancing this process. I am deeply grateful to Sweden for its consistent support and partnership,” said Dr Hans Henri P. Kluge, WHO Regional Director for Europe. More than 4 years of war have placed unprecedented pressure on Ukraine’s health system, creating 3 interconnected challenges. The first is responding to the immediate consequences of the war and the urgent health needs of the population. The second is recovering and modernizing health services today. The third is continuing reforms and aligning the health system with European standards in the context of Ukraine’s future accession to the European Union. The war has led to large-scale population displacement, an increasing need for trauma care and rehabilitation, and shortages of health workers. High out-of-pocket payments in Ukraine make access to health services more difficult. Around 46% of total health expenditure is paid directly by individuals, placing a significant financial burden on many households and underscoring the need for reforms in health financing. Older people, persons with disabilities, women, children and veterans continue to face the greatest difficulties in accessing health services. “Ukraine is demonstrating that health system transformation can continue even during war. Ukraine is also continuing to align its health system with European norms and standards. WHO is committed to supporting Ukraine on this journey. We provide technical support, help coordinate partners’ efforts and support the institutional changes needed to strengthen the system. We are grateful to Sweden for its support. Through this partnership, we can help Ukraine build a more resilient, accessible and people-centred health system,” said Dr Jarno Habicht, WHO Representative in Ukraine. About the Health System Transformation InitiativeThe new initiative will support Ukraine through 3 interconnected areas: strengthening governance and coordination of health sector reforms through more inclusive coordination platforms and structured policy dialogue; transforming service delivery by reinforcing a primary health care-centred model that integrates family medicine, nursing and midwifery; and improving financial sustainability by supporting reforms that ensure the long-term viability of the national health system and reduce out-of-pocket payments for households. Overall, these reforms are expected to make the health system more coherent and easier to navigate, improve the quality and continuity of care, and ensure more equitable access to services, particularly for those who need them most. They will also support Ukraine’s progress towards a more modern health system aligned with European standards. “We are convinced that long-term recovery is not possible without strong, high-quality, person-centred health services that are accessible to everyone. Our partnership with WHO is designed to support deep and lasting systemic changes. Investments in human capital especially autonomous midwives, whose role for maternal, newborn and adolescent sexual and reproductive health cannot be understated, stronger governance, digital transformation and the financial sustainability of the health system are investments in Ukraine’s future. We are proud to support this process,” said Malin Perhult, the Head of the Ukraine Unit at Sida. Focus throughout implementation will be given to the most vulnerable population groups, including older people, women and children, and persons with disabilities, who have been affected by the war and face greater health-care needs. The initiative will be implemented in close cooperation with the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, the National Health Service of Ukraine, the Public Health Centre of Ukraine, regional authorities and international partners. This project will help Ukraine move towards a system where everyone can access the health care they need. It will strengthen primary care, make the health finance system more stable and predictable, and reduce the out-of-pocket costs that Ukrainians face when using health services. As a result, the Ukrainian health system will become more aligned with European standards and more sustainable in the long run.
Small Creatures, Big Mission: NMHM Bugapalooza 2026 Connects Science and Military Readiness
Mosquitoes, ticks, flies, and pollinators drew a crowd at the National Museum of Health and Medicine's Bugapalooza on June 13. Nearly 400 visitors attended the annual event to explore the world of insects through hands-on activities, exhibits, and conversations with military and civilian experts.
Whole Hog Politics: It was voters, not Senate Republicans, who forced Trump’s hand on Iran
[Watch Whole Hog Politics live: Join us today at 9 am ET at TheHill.com as Chris Stirewalt and host Bill Sammon break down this week’s political news and answer questions from a live online audienc…
Morgan Stanley on life after selling your business: a roadmap for entrepreneurs
Selling your company can be the financial win of a lifetime — and one of the most disorienting transitions you'll ever face.
Egypt vs Iran at World Cup 2026 – Salah, prediction, lineups, how to watch
Mohamed Salah's Egypt and Mehdi Taremi's Iran are both in the hunt for the FIFA World Cup knockouts in Group G.
Gambling disorder diagnoses spike after states legalized sports betting
Researchers analyzed millions of electronic health records and found a major difference between states that greenlit sports gambling and those that didn’t.
Gambling disorder diagnoses spike after states legalized sports betting
Researchers analyzed millions of electronic health records and found a major difference between states that greenlit sports gambling and those that didn’t.
Most Patients Want Docs To Break Cancer News Directly, Not Through Portal Messaging
By Dennis Thompson HealthDay ReporterFRIDAY, June 25, 2026 (HealthDay News) — People are becoming more comfortable communicating with their doctor through clinics’ patient portals. Folks use the portals to ask their doc questions and even to review the results of recent medical tests. But there are ...
New York Jets News: Geno Smith Needs Another Career Comeback
Your daily links to the New York Jets
Lancaster County public sales: June 26, 2026
Witman Auctioneers Inc., of Manheim, conducted a public auction of real estate June 11 for the Dorothy McVey estate at 22 Sleepy Hollow Road, Nottingham. A two-bedroom mobile home on
Lincoln International CEO on why the firm went public — and what’s ahead for dealmaking
Lincoln International makes its public debut as dealmaking is poised for a resurgence, with the firm's client engagement letters up 40%.
NC Democrats demand lower utility costs + budget talks drag on as deadline nears
Read our Under the Dome newsletter and listen to our Under the Dome podcast to stay up to date on #ncpol.
Gemini begins rolling out for existing Android Automotive vehicles
Some months after its confirmation, Gemini for Android Automotive appears to be finally rolling out to existing vehicles.
Bayer wins in US court, but at what cost to public health?
A landmark US Supreme Court ruling protects Bayer from thousands of lawsuits linked to its Roundup weedkiller. Plaintiffs alleged the German agrochemical giant failed to warn users about potential cancer risks.
Ben Wood, longtime three-dot columnist known as ‘Mr. Show Business,’ dies at 94
Ben Wood, a multifaceted copy editor, food and entertainment writer, and three-dot columnist for the Honolulu Star-Bulletin and Honolulu Star-Advertiser for almost 50 years, died June 19 after several years of declining health. He was 94.
College Sports Communicators Recognize Strelow with Writing Awards
BOONE, N.C. — App State's award-winning strategic communications staff added more honors this spring, as Bret Strelow was recognized for two stories in the Fred Stabley Sr. Writing Contest that's conducted by the College Sports Communicators organization.
Alito’s testy reaction to Sotomayor underscores tensions at Supreme Court
When major rulings are announced, most Supreme Court justices practice a kind of studied impassivity. Then, there’s Samuel Alito.
Sugar is not uniquely bad for you. But it’s undermining good habits.
Is sugar more harmful than other carbohydrates? The evidence is far from compelling.
Big Ten women’s sports are having a moment. What is the league doing to capitalize?
In the two years since Caitlin Clark left for the WNBA, the Big Ten has worked to keep its momentum.
Democrats’ real plan to control Congress again
New York’s socialist insurgents are getting the headlines. But in swing House districts, the establishment has been getting its way.
Louisville coaches can't afford to stay sidelined amid NCAA changes
The NCAA has brought college sports into instability, which is why coaches like Louisville's Jeff Brohm and Pat Kelsey have to be activists.
Gay Street businesses cope with Capital Line construction
The Capital Line is meant to be transformative for Downtown. But right now it's presenting challenges for businesses.
Freedom Con: Thousands of Men Gather for Christianity and Feats of Strength
Thousands of men and boys gathered in central Washington for masculinity, Christianity and right-wing politics.
Online retailer John's Crazy Socks relocates to Huntington in effort to turn around business
The company's core mission is to create employment opportunities for people who face barriers to work because of disabilities.
‘The Hot Zone’ led me to work with Ebola patients. Now I have mixed feelings about the book
“The reality of Ebola is simultaneously less sensational and far more challenging than most people imagine,” writes Krutika Kuppalli.
Introducing: Breguet Celebrates the 225th Anniversary of the Tourbillon with Four New Releases, And the Return of a Collector Favorite (Live Pics)
A revived and revised version of the Roth-designed caliber 558.1 movement (significantly improved) headlines four watches to celebrate the patent date of one of Abraham-Louis Breguet's most notable achievements.
Fitbit Air's first update is already rolling out, and it could finally fix its biggest annoyance
Google has started rolling out the Fitbit Air's first firmware update since launch. This update promises bug fixes and improvements.
Top 2027 big man expected to visit Arkansas basketball
Arkansas basketball is expected to host 2027 big man Caleb Ourigou for an official visit this weekend.
UK food and drink exports fall as US tariffs and Brexit trade friction bites
Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news
Former Illinois forward Ben Humrichous signs contract with Nets
Heading to Brooklyn.
Hollywood gets into the microdrama race as mobile-first storytelling draws stars and major studios
Mobile-first serialized storytelling is rapidly becoming one of entertainment's fastest-growing businesses.
Hollywood gets into the microdrama race as mobile-first storytelling draws stars and major studios
While much of Hollywood was consumed by the streaming wars, Issa Rae was studying a different mode of entertainment thousands of miles away: microdramas. No stranger to creating a successful online s...
TravelTech Show, Business Travel Show Europe name 2026 innovation award winners
Arcube, ImpersonAlly, Acai and Nowadays were recognized in separate competitions for travel technology innovations spanning airline retailing, brand protection, contact center automation and meetings management.
Senate Indian Affairs Committee Advances Mark Cruz’s Nomination to Lead Indian Health Service
U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), Chair of the Senate Committee on Indian Affairs, led a nomination hearing to consider Mr. Mark Cruz, of Oregon, to be Director of the Indian Health Service within the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and expressed her intent to support his nomination. Representative Tom Cole (R-Okla.), a citizen […]
EVA HENRY: Corruption resurfaces in Adams, Arapahoe County politics linked to One Main Street
Corporate dark money groups are funneling millions into eleven different races statewide.
Why Michelle Pfeiffer left her 'Grease 2' audition feeling 'so humiliated'
On the anniversary of 'Grease 2,' take a look back at what Michelle Pfeiffer said about her audition. It was humiliating.
Clinicians are making more money despite stagnant reimbursement. Guess how?
Compensation for healthcare providers rose some 4.3% in 2025. The sobering news is that the gain owes more to heavier daily workloads than to bigger per-patient billings.
It's Xbox's turn (again), as console prices keep going up
Microsoft announced a price hike for the Xbox Series consoles today, the third in little over a year. Effective August 1, the Xbox Series S, which launched in 2020 for $300, will cost $500 in the U.S. The Xbox Series X, which launched in 2020 at $500, will go for $800. This follows a round of PlayStation 5 price increases from Sony this spring, and a slow-motion increase for Nintendo’s Switch 2, which will kick in in the U.S. in September. (Mind you, there were also eight video game industry price hikes in six months of 2025). The chart up top shows the sudden ascent of console prices over the past year, a sudden surge in an already unusual hardware generation. Prices had been flat for years, now “up” is the new “flat.” Game console prices used to go down across the length of a console generation, but not this time around. Microsoft’s explanation for the new price hike today: We hoped another price increase would not be necessary, and we have spent the last several months working with suppliers on options. Unfortunately, console storage and memory prices have increased by more than 2.5x and we expect another doubling by the fall of 2027. The entire consumer electronics industry is struggling with the current components crisis, but the effects are particularly hard on consoles. Unlike phones, computers, speakers, and other consumer devices, consoles are typically not sold at a profit, but instead for less than they cost to make. This is an issue well beyond game consoles. Apple announced price hikes on its computers and tablets today as well. Game File is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Subscribe Item 2: Brutal Bungie cuts Bungie laid off “most” of its Destiny development team and some developers who worked on Marathon, the newest game from the struggling Sony-owned studio. A WARN notice issued by Sony to Washington State, where Bungie is based, tallied cuts impacting 292 workers, effective next month. That’s strictly for Bungie/Sony jobs in Washington and wouldn’t account for any elsewhere. The video I clipped below shows the redacted list of Bungie cuts filed to Washington State officials. As you’ll see, I had to scroll for a while… In a note emailed to PlayStation workers and published online, PlayStation game studios chief Hermen Hulst offered the following explanation for these latest cuts at Bungie: This is painful news, especially for talented colleagues whose roles have been eliminated. This decision was made only after extensive discussion and careful consideration, and I want to provide some context on how we arrived here. Over the past several months, together with Bungie leadership, we reviewed the studio’s long-term direction, development priorities, resource needs, and role within our broader portfolio strategy. We explored multiple alternatives before concluding that a reduction was necessary to align the studio’s resources with its current priorities and long-term goals. In 2022, Sony bought Bungie for $3.7 billion. The studio’s marquee game, the multiplayer live service shooter Destiny 2 was losing popularity at the time. Its next game Marathon, released earlier this year, has been well-reviewed but had a slow start. Bungie is renowned for making great shooter games, and Destiny fans have mourned the wind-down of Destiny 2. They’ve also expressed bewilderment over reports that Destiny 3 is not, per Bloomberg, immediately in the cards.
Trump likely to ‘lose’ on birthright citizenship case, political analyst says
Fox News senior political analyst Juan Williams discusses the Supreme Court set to issue a ruling on birthright citizenship on ‘Special Report.’
Baxter Health Heart and Vascular Clinic Welcomes Brandi Watson, APRN
Baxter Health is proud to welcome Brandi Watson, APRN, to the Baxter Health Heart and Vascular Clinic. Watson joined the team on May 15 and is currently accepting new patients. Watson brings more than 25 years of experience caring for some of the most critically ill patients. Much of her career has been spent in intensive care settings, where she learned to make fast, high-stakes decisions for patients whose lives depended on getting the right care at the right moment. That kind of experience, which is gained through years at the bedside, is exactly what heart and vascular patients need from a provider.
Joint statement – WHO/Europe and CCEE to collaborate on addressing health inequities and loneliness
WHO/Europe and the Council of Bishops’ Conferences of Europe (CCEE) officially signed a Letter of Intent on 23 June to establish a strategic partnership for promoting pan-European dialogue to reduce inequities, enabling every child and adult to live in health, safety and dignity.
UCLA comparative literature department to offer health humanities minor in fall
UCLA will offer a minor in health humanities starting this fall. The minor, housed under the comparative literature department, is an interdisciplinary program that examines how health and medicine are shaped by literature, culture, history and social experience, according to the department’s website.
WATCH: Stephen Miller says 'America's doors are closed fully to asylum seekers' after Supreme Court rulings
The Supreme Court voted 6-3 on Thursday to allow the Trump administration to end legal protections for migrants fleeing violence and natural disaster in Haiti and Syria, exposing hundreds of thousands more people to potential deportation.
233-acre Franklin farm could become major youth sports complex
A Nashville Predators-operated ice rink and athletic facility could transform historic Franklin property.
Need for bread | Unexpected closure of Terranetti's Bakery has left several businesses scrambling
Terranetti's Bakery closes, and local shops are scrambling for bread
Lionel Richie postpones concerts after falling ill during tour opener
Lionel Richie is pausing his return to the stage after abruptly falling ill during the opening of his new tour.
Asthma, maternal health, climate disasters: How Detroit’s health director is tackling city’s health disparities
Detroit health director discusses tackling childhood asthma, maternal health, climate disasters through Health in All Policies approach.
Caitlin Clark made the WNBA bigger. It’s still playing small
The league’s paltry one-game suspension of Alyssa Thomas after her fist to Caitlin Clark's throat barely begins to address the problem.
Kawhi Leonard Seeks Extension – But Not With Current Team
Kawhi Leonard has one year left on his current contract with the Los Angeles Clippers. He’s eligible to sign an extension this summer, and sounds like he’s willing to do get that done. The one caveat: The Clippers aren’t necessarily the team he wants to sign with. Leonard, who turns 35 on June 29, ...
Sephora CEO Guillaume Motte on Creating Demand and Scaling Desire
The beauty retailer’s chief executive spoke at day two of The Business of Beauty Global Forum about the strategies that have led to $5 billion in growth over the past three years.
Plaucheville business opens parking lot to Red Cross, polling site after flooding
One week after Avoyelles Parish received nearly 30 inches of rain in less than 12 hours, 2 Sisters’ Salsa is opening its parking lot to help the community recover.
Plaucheville business opens parking lot to Red Cross, polling site after flooding
One week after Avoyelles Parish received nearly 30 inches of rain in less than 12 hours, 2 Sisters’ Salsa is opening its parking lot to help the community recover.
Moore links Maryland primary to Mamdani-backed wins; analysts disagree
Gov. Wes Moore says Maryland’s primary election showed voters rejected the status quo, but political analysts say the results reflect a more complicated picture.
Octavia Spencer's Orit Entertainment Names New Heads Of Film & TV
Octavia Spencer's Orit Entertainment has made two key executive hires, naming Kathryn Tyus-Adair as Head of Film and Adam Wagner as Head of Television
Octavia Spencer’s Orit Entertainment Names Kathryn Tyus-Adair Head Of Film & Adam Wagner Head Of Television
EXCLUSIVE: Octavia Spencer’s Orit Entertainment has made two key executive hires, naming Kathryn Tyus-Adair as Head of Film and Adam Wagner as Head of Television. “Kathryn and Adam are exceptional exe...
Business Council deliberations continue with four bill drafts
Lawmakers on the Joint Appropriations Committee spent another day diving through the Wyoming Business Council’s dealings. This time, they also reviewed draft bills that would influence how the council operates.
M5 Ultra Mac Studio Could Launch in 2026 With Up to 768GB of RAM
Despite price increases across the Mac line, Apple is still planning to release a new Mac Studio as soon as this year, reports Bloomberg. Apple plans to introduce a new M5 Ultra chip as the final option in the M5 family before it transitions to the M6, M7, M7 Pro, and M7 Max. The M5 Ultra will come in a new version of the Mac Studio, which hasn't been updated since March 2025.
Supreme Court hands Trump major victories on his immigration agenda
In two ideologically spit rulings that could affect millions, justices say the administration can deport some migrants and turn others away at the border.
Santa Ana Star Casino Hotel launches app, unveils July entertainment lineup
Santa Ana Star Casino Hotel offers comedy, entertainment, perks, and more. In July, the casino has a lineup of comedians and other entertainment. July Entertainment Lineup June 26, 27 – Carme…
Illinois financial adviser charged with operating Ponzi scheme
Prosecutors allege Paaris Kopsaftis of Des Plaines-based Blackwater Assets took more than $150,000 from clients in a Ponzi-like scheme.
Democratic socialists’ battleground test: From the Politics Desk
Plus, Pete Buttigieg is back on the campaign trail. And digging into Michael Whatley’s bio in the North Carolina Senate race.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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