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2026 NFL mock draft 9.0: Chiefs trade into top 3 in final edition, while Giants find great Dexter Lawrence transition plan
NFL mock draft roundup: Experts predict first round after Dexter Lawrence trade
The Dexter Lawrence trade has shaken up the 2026 NFL Draft. Here's how experts see the draft unfolding in wake of that blockbuster deal.
A.J. Brown reportedly not expected to attend Eagles' voluntary offseason workouts amid trade speculation
NFL Draft landing spots for the top 10 QBs, plus what every team should do in the draft and A.J. Brown rumors
The Pick Six newsletter goes all-in on 2026 NFL Draft buzz, mock drafts and trade rumors
Report: Giants unlikely to trade Kayvon Thibodeaux
The Giants traded defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence to the Bengals over the weekend, but a report on Monday indicates that they aren't expected to ship out another veteran defender ahead of the draft.
Bengals’ Dexter Lawrence trade even has rival GMs praising Cincy
How good was the Dexter Lawrence trade for the Bengals? Even rival GMs have praise for the move.
A.J. Brown likely to be traded to Patriots
A new report from Adam Schefter has Brown on the move.
Eagles trade rumor could lead to deal with Vikings
The Philadelphia Eagles are reportedly looking to be active in the trade market during the 2026 NFL Draft, and the Minnesota Vikings might be in their crosshairs. According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, Eagles general manager Howie Roseman is plotting to…
Why Democrats with 2028 hopes are calling Lina Khan – and what she’s telling them about remaking the economy
Lina Khan is getting constant calls from Democrats, many of them thinking about presidential runs, to sound out problems and workshop potential solutions. That’s a shift from when she was Federal Trade Commission chair and some party leaders avoided meetings or events with her. Khan hasn’t changed so much as the world around her has. Many Americans are furious about rising costs, affordability, technological changes, and soaring profits for the rich. And President Donald Trump has maximized the levers of federal power in ways that were once considered off-limits in both parties. What Khan has in mind for the next Democrat in the White House isn’t a 1,000-page blueprint like the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025. It’s more of an overall strategy rooted in her specialty: excavating long-forgotten laws already on the books, then finding ways to apply them to 21st century companies.
NFL insider 2026 mock draft: What we're hearing around the league
League intel points to trades, a fluid top 10 and a wide-open Round 1 -- with Jermod McCoy falling further than most expect
India and South Korea agree to nearly double trade to $50B by 2030
South Korea and India have agreed to nearly double bilateral trade to $50 billion by 2030, up from about $27 billion.
Trump Administration to Begin Refunding $166 Billion in Tariffs
The government will debut a system to repay importers two months after the Supreme Court struck down tariffs at the heart of the president’s trade policy.
Taiwan business group urges Beijing, Taipei to keep politics out of trade
The head of one of Taiwan's top business groups said on Monday both Beijing and Taipei should leave politics out of resuming normal trade and tourism exchanges, after China unveiled new incentives for the island.
Taiwan business group urges Beijing, Taipei to keep politics out of trade
The head of one of Taiwan's top business groups said on Monday both Beijing and Taipei should leave politics out of resuming normal trade and tourism exchanges, after China unveiled new incentives for the island.
Canada's prime minister says economic connection to the U.S. has shifted from a strength to a weakness
Prime Minister Mark Carney said tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump have impacted workers in such major industries as auto and steel and prompted businesses to hold back investments.
Report: Cardinals, Saints discussing expensive 2026 draft trade
Saints GM Mickey Loomis isn't known for his patience in the NFL draft. But this report about a trade up to third overall may be too rich even for him.
2026 NFL mock draft: Trades galore as Patrick Mahomes gets a bodyguard, Cowboys find new face of their defense
Former NFL CB and two-time Super Bowl champion Bryant McFadden predicts all 32 first-round picks
Giants have an opportunity to accelerate their rebuild under John Harbaugh after bold Dexter Lawrence trade
After Long Avoiding Politics, Commodity Traders Cozy Up to Trump
(Bloomberg) -- For decades, the world’s biggest commodity traders have sought to remain outside of politics, doing deals with anyone who has natural resources to buy or sell. Now, Donald Trump is changing the rules of the game. Most Read from BloombergHormuz Chaos, Lebanon Clashes Dent Trump Peace Deal HopesNvidia Makes Quantum Computing CEO a Billionaire in DaysTrump Says Iran Will Suspend Nuclear Program as Hormuz OpensThe Jet-Fuel Surge Is Making Global Flight Connections DisappearCongo to To
After Long Avoiding Politics, Commodity Traders Cozy Up to Trump
For decades, the world’s biggest commodity traders have sought to remain outside of politics, doing deals with anyone who has natural resources to buy or sell. Now, Donald Trump is changing the rules of the game.
2026 NFL Draft gets massive shakeup after Dexter Lawrence trade: How the top 10 could now unfold
How this trade changes the draft and sends ripple effects across the entire NFL.
Browns were also reportedly looking into Dexter Lawrence trade
There is an alternate timeline that would be much worse for the Bengals.
Bengals News (4/19): A big day for Cincinnati
The league is buzzing about the Dexter Lawrence trade.
How much influencer earn at Coachella, the 'Influencer Olympics'
Influencers at Coachella can earn five-figure fees for promoting brands, but many are happy to trade social posts for VIP tickets and villa stays.
3 trade-up targets for Steelers in 2026 NFL Draft
These three players are ideal trade-up targets for the Pittsburgh Steelers in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Who won the Giants-Bengals trade of Dexter Lawrence? Here are the grades
Ranking NFL Draft options for Giants at No. 10 following Dexter Lawrence trade
New York could go a number of different ways with two picks in the top 10 of the 2026 NFL Draft.
NFL Draft's most interesting teams: Giants' first draft with John Harbaugh included a big trade. What else is next?
Dexter Lawrence's future is an important part of the Giants' draft moves.
Giants make blockbuster trade with Bengals ahead of draft
Dexter Lawrence has been traded by the New York Giants
Dexter Lawrence trade grades after Bengals-Giants NFL blockbuster
Trade grades for the Bengals-Giants blockbuster deal for Dexter Lawrence
Giants trade DL Dexter Lawrence to Bengals, pick up second top-10 draft pick
The Bengals are sending their first-round pick in the 2026 NFL Draft to the Giants in deal for Dexter Lawrence.
Giants trade Dexter Lawrence to Bengals in massive deal that includes No. 10 overall pick, per report
New York now holds two picks in the top 10 of the draft following this blockbuster.
2026 NFL Draft Rumors: Ty Simpson Status, Dexter Lawrence Trade Price, More
Here are all the latest 2026 NFL Draft rumors.
2026 NFL mock draft: Commanders trade down after Jeremiyah Love flies off board in top five
Projecting the 2026 NFL Draft's first round with Jeremiyah Love's selection leading to changes.
2026 NFL Draft: CBS Sports mock involves Bills in Round 1 trade
The Bills make a trade in this CBS Sports mock draft.
Berkshire Hathaway’s Big Utility Business Could Be Worth Close to $100 Billion
It would probably be a top five utility in the country by market value if it were publicly traded.
2026 NFL mock draft: Cowboys move up for Ohio State star; Cardinals land QB with late trade
Dallas makes a move up the board with the Browns, who add a third first-rounder
Bears insider sounds off on potential trade for Dexter Lawrence
Chicago Bears beat writer Kevin Fishbain believes the team should definitely have a conversation about trading for Dexter Lawrence.
One Month With the MacBook Neo and Feeling the Limits
A cheaper MacBook has trade-offs for my too-many-tabs lifestyle.
The return of power politics to the market: theory and practice of the geoeconomic zeitenwende
Descriptions, explanations, and recommendations regarding foreign policy as well as foreign trade policy increasingly refer to the concept of geoeconomics. In fact, the use of economic and technological measures in foreign policy practice is becoming more frequent and intensive, especially in those countries that have the necessary resources of power at their disposal, such as […]
Jardines and CK Hutchison pursue Hong Kong supermarket megadeal, FT reports
Hong Kong-based Jardines is in talks with CK Hutchison to buy its supermarket division, which trades as ParknShop, and merge it with Wellcome, the Financial Times reported on Friday, citing people familiar with the matter.
Expectations for 2026 NFL Draft: 'There'll probably be a lot of trades.' Here's who could be on move before and afterward
Chargers GM makes defiant statement on WR trade rumors
It is clear L.A. has zero interest in moving on.
iPhone Loyalty Hits 96.4% as Android Users Four Times More Likely to Switch
Customers are more loyal to Apple than ever, according to a smartphone loyalty survey conducted by phone trade-in site SellCell. 96.4% of customers surveyed said they planned to stick with an iPhone for their next upgrade, and 3.6% said they would choose a different brand. That's up from 91.9% in SellCell's 2021 survey and 90.5% in 2019. Android users were less loyal to their brand, and are almost 4x more likely to switch than iPhone users.
Rams trade for star defensive player in new mock draft
If the Rams are truly all-in for 2026, they should consider trading the No. 13 pick for an established star.
The NCAA idea that could reshape college sports: 'It's not a tweak, it's a structural shift'
NCAA’s five-year eligibility bet: Simpler rules, cleaner rosters, new tradeoffs. USA TODAY Sports canvassed college sports stakeholders on proposal.
2026 NFL mock draft: Cowboys execute one of five first-round trades as every team makes at least one pick
Dallas trades up to No. 6 in our latest mock, plus nine offensive linemen come off the board in Round 1.
[DEF 14A] Flutter Entertainment plc Definitive Proxy Statement
Stock Titan provides an ultra-fast stock market news feed and multiple tools for traders and investors.
Chargé Arnold Speech - Implementation Plan of Five-Year Health MOU - U.S. Embassy in Madagascar
Chargée d’Affaires Stephanie Arnold's Speech Discussion on the implementation plan for the five-year health Memorandum of Understanding (…) Colleagues, and honored guests, Good morning, and welcome to the United States Embassy. It is a pleasure to host you today for the second day of this important workshop to discuss the implementation of our bilateral health Memorandum of Understanding on U.S. Government health activities in Madagascar, made possible through the Trump Administration’s America First Global Health Strategy. Today’s focus— discussing a shared vision and developing a preliminary draft for the health MOU Implementation Plan and the terms of reference for the two committees that will steer its implementation—is a decisive step in moving from commitments on paper to concrete action over the next five years. On December 22, 2025, the Governments of Madagascar and the United States signed a five-year bilateral health MOU, with a financial intention of approximately 554 billion Ariary from the United States and This jointly decided MOU intends to strengthen Madagascar’s health system, support lifesaving services, and improve disease prevention and response that matter to both our countries’ health security. For the United States, this means detecting and containing infectious disease outbreaks including malaria, polio, and emerging health threats before they can reach American shores through international travel and trade, protecting American families while reducing the need for costly domestic emergency responses Yesterday, technical experts from the Ministry of Public Health and the U.S. Government worked in thematic groups to draft a preliminary Implementation Plan. Today, your task is to review the shared vision and preliminary draft MOU implementation plan, and the proposed terms of reference for the Joint Steering Committee and the Operational Committee that will guide its implementation. These committees are not just administrative structures. They are the mechanisms that will ensure clear roles and responsibilities, regular dialogue between our two governments, consistent monitoring of progress, and real accountability for the results that will directly benefit the lives of Malagasy citizens. They will also track performance against the benchmarks we have jointly established, which will guide the continuation of U.S. support over the five-year period . Continued U.S. support will be contingent on meeting these performance benchmarks. This ensures accountability to both American and Malagasy taxpayers and guarantees that our partnership delivers measurable results. America First Foreign Assistance means that U.S. support must be strategic, results-driven, and accountable to our taxpayers. It also means we aim to support greater self-reliance and reduced long-term dependence on foreign assistance, with systems that are increasingly financed and led by Madagascar itself. This approach benefits both our nations: Madagascar gains sustainable health capacity, while the United States advances our health security interests and creates opportunities for American health innovations and companies to support Madagascar’s development. In that spirit, I want to recognize the presence of the Ministry’s leadership and the technical directors and program heads responsible for surveillance, basic health services, family health, immunization, countering malaria, laboratories, medicines, and health information systems. Your leadership and technical expertise are essential if this bilateral health MOU is to translate into real and lasting improvements for people in need across the country. Let me emphasize how important collaboration is to the United States in this effort. We can bring American resources, technical expertise, and tools. But this bilateral health MOU can only succeed if it reflects Madagascar’s priorities and if Malagasy institutions lead and maintain its implementation. We see this not as a U.S. project, but as a joint framework under Malagasy leadership, with U.S. support. That is why we are genuinely pleased to host this event here at the Embassy. Opening our doors to you today symbolizes our commitment to work side by side and to remain transparent about how we use U.S. resources in support of Madagascar’s health system. In closing, thank you for your time and your partnership. We are very happy to welcome you here and proud to accompany Madagascar in this next step of implementation planning for our bilateral health MOU. I wish you a productive and focused session. The work you do today will shape how our two governments cooperate on health in the years ahead; it will influence the quality and reliability of health services that Malagasy communities receive; and, most importantly, it will help protect both our nations from infectious disease threats while building Madagascar’s capacity for long-term health system sustainability. Thank you.
One week out from the NFL Draft: Intel, rumors and what we're hearing
One week before the 2026 NFL Draft, league sources outline the Jets' thinking at No. 2, a likely chaos candidate at No. 3 overall and the latest buzz on risers, trades and top prospects.
America's Open for Business
Just over one year into the second Trump presidency, trillions of dollars have poured into American manufacturing, AI infrastructure, energy, and technology. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent makes the case for how the administration’s bold trade policy, deregulation, and America First economics are redefining the United States as the world’s premier destination for capital.
FOX Sports Analyst suggests Chiefs draft day trade with Lions
A FOX Sports Analyst suggests a Kansas City Chiefs draft day trade with the Detroit Lions for tight end Sam LaPorta | @EdEastonJr
Russia spent extra $130 billion for goods while sanctioned: Latvia
The Latvian analysts said intelligence showed Russia's own forecasts warn it may lose another $136 billion just in trade by 2030 due to the sanctions.
Tarik Skubal Fantasy Value Skyrockets In Potential Dodgers Trade
Tarik Skubal's fantasy value could skyrocket in a Dodgers trade, with wins, strikeouts, and overall production in a dominant rotation setup.
The Miami-Dade businesses that lost their licenses over alleged illegal trade with Cuba
Miami-Dade County Tax Collector Dariel Fernández announced new enforcement actions that include revoking business licenses for several companies accused of operating in violation of federal regulations related to Cuba.
AI helps US businesses manage Supreme Court tariff impacts
Generative AI aids US importers with tariff refunds and scenario planning. KPMG and EQI use AI tools to navigate trade compliance and optimize costs.
PNC Gives Update on Private Business Lender Exposure
That's PNC Financial's exposure to private business lenders, including private-credit funds. The bank said that $7 billion of that figure is in the form of loans to private-credit providers, a focus of jittery investors in recent months. The remainder, $26 billion, is in the form of trade receivabl
Allbirds shares surge over 430% as footwear firm trades shoes for AI business
In a radical strategic overhaul, Allbirds is divesting its footwear business while securing $50 million (€42.4 million) in new financing to acquire GPUs and rebrand as NewBird AI.View on euronews
PGA Sustainability Toolkit Launches With Focus on Bottom Line
The trade group’s latest green production resource offers advice for cutting down emissions on set — and selling that approach to top creatives and heads of department.
Golden Entertainment takes next step toward deregistration
If the Gaming Commission approves later this month, the chain will transition from being a publicly traded company.
This week in Santa Cruz County business: Paystand’s new partnership, U.S. trade commission to investigate claims against Joby, Dharma’s cry for help
Jessica M. Pasko's weekly column is back with news of local payments company Paystand partnering with a big name, a U.S. Trade Commission investigation in to Joby Aviation, upcoming dates to know, and more.
Trump warns US-UK trade deal ‘can always be changed’ with relations in ‘sad state’
President says he gave Britain ‘better deal than I had to’ but ally was ‘not there when we needed them’ on Iran
Dexter Lawrence trade destinations: Giants are reportedly talking with teams after extension talks get stuck with star d-lineman
Apple says Jon Prosser has only partially complied with subpoenas in iOS 26 leak case
In a joint status report, attorneys for Apple and Michael Ramacciotti updated the court on the latest developments in the trade secrets lawsuit over the leak of iOS 26 design details.
2026 NFL Draft rumors: Cowboys pursuing defense if they trade up, latest on Aaron Rodgers
Dallas has started kicking the tires on teams inside the top 10 while the Steelers are in a predicament
Current Capital One Venture Business welcome bonus offer
The current bonus offer on the Capital One Venture Business provides new cardholders the chance to earn valuable Capital One miles. Here's what you need to know.
Eagles leak wild theory that could signal A.J. Brown trade
A.J. Brown trade rumors are not going away
Jon Prosser Still Not Fully Cooperating in Apple's iOS 26 Trade Secrets Lawsuit
A joint status report filed yesterday in Apple's trade secrets lawsuit against YouTuber Jon Prosser and Michael Ramacciotti shows Prosser is still failing to comply with discovery, prompting Apple to seek a court order to compel him. The latest filing, submitted to the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California yesterday, covers developments since the parties' last update in February 2026.
US Jewelry-Business Closures Slow in First Quarter
The US jewelry industry’s downsizing rate slowed in the first quarter, according to the latest data from the Jewelers Board of Trade (JBT).
Paulo Costa and Josh Hokit trade shots on social media
UFC 327 last Saturday was heavyweight Josh Hokit's coming out party. He garnered attention with his media antics leading up to the event and then put on a performance that won't soon be forgotten. Unranked Hokit faced No. 5 ranked Curtis Blaydes in a main card matchup and was part of what some are ...
NFL mock draft: Dallas Cowboys make trade with Arizona Cardinals
In the latest NFL.com mock draft, the Cardinals trade the third pick for picks Nos. 12 and 20.
Bengals player smoothly answers Dexter Lawrence trade question
A Bengals player got asked about a Dexter Lawrence trade and handled it in a way fans will like.
US crude futures fall over $1 as traders weigh supply risks
U.S. crude futures fell more than $1 in early Asian trade on Tuesday as traders balanced heightened supply risks linked to a U.S. blockade of Iranian shipping in the Strait of Hormuz with reports that Washington and Tehran were still open to talks after a tense meeting in Islamabad.
Thaddeus Stevens College to launch online small business management program
Thaddeus Stevens College of Technology prides itself on integrating its students into central Pennsylvania trade and technical programs, to the point that many are working for local businesses before they
Washington Announces Naval Blockade of Iranian Ports After Talks Collapse
The war in Iran has already strained supply chains and energy markets, and the US blockade threatens to destabilize global trade flows.
CVS Health Corporation (CVS): Legal Clarity and Core Strengths Support the Bull Case
CVS Health Corporation (NYSE:CVS) is one of the undervalued large cap stocks to buy. On March 25, UBS analyst Kevin Caliendo reiterated a Buy rating and $97 price target on CVS Health Corporation (NYSE:CVS). Caliendo said that CVS’s proposed settlement with the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) over insulin pricing could lift a major cloud that […]
2026 NFL mock draft: Jeremiyah Love goes top five, Cowboys trade up, Drake Maye gets a new weapon
Here's how the first 32 picks -- including three trades -- could unfurl.
Sparks trade forward Jackson to the Sky for guard Atkins
LOS ANGELES -- It had been rumbling for days now but this was still a surprise when first mentioned.
Cowboys news: Dallas could still hit the veteran trade market
Your Sunday morning Cowboys news.
New York Jets Flight Connections 04/12/26
Happy Sunday, Jets fans! Here are your links for the last day of this April weekend. Nick Faria – Jets have another potential trade partner in the first round Nick Faria – One line from scout highlights Jets’ real draft ‘plan’ Stefan Stelling – Slipping WR prospect could fall into Jets’ laps at No. 16 […]
Packers trade WR Dontayvion Wicks to Eagles for draft picks
Steelers trade proposal sends Nick Herbig to NFC powerhouse
Could the Steelers send Herbig out of Pittsburgh?
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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