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Results for " Democratic " 3,156 found 🔀 AI-powered Shuffle

The Doctor Will Seek Your Vote Now

Dozens of Democratic doctors are running for office in the midterms, including some spurred by opposition to Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and his anti-vaccine stance.

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Apr 18 • 5:02 AM EDT • Health • nytimes.com
Trump envoy faces 'sweeping' investigation over business ties, diplomatic role

Democratic U.S. Representative Jamie Raskin launched what he described as a "sweeping" investigation into U.S. President Donald Trump's envoy and son-in-law, Jared Kushner, over a potential conflict of interest, according to an April 17 press release. The inquiry focuses on Kushner's dual role as a diplomatic intermediary and head of a private equity firm, raising questions about whether his financial ties could influence U.S. foreign policy decisions. Kushner has played a central role in Trum

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Apr 18 • 4:53 AM EDT • Business • kyivindependent.com
What to know about the Democrats running to represent Southwest Ohio

Incumbent Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman will face challenger Damon Lynch IV in the May primary for Ohio's 1st District.

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Apr 18 • 12:30 AM EDT • Politics • cincinnati.com
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Republican Nerves Are Fraying Ahead of Midterm Elections

High gasoline prices, the war in Iran and recent Democratic victories are fueling the angst.

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Apr 17 • 10:00 PM EDT • Politics • wsj.com
Exclusive | Ilhan Omar Says She Isn’t a Multimillionaire, Blames Accounting Error

The Minnesota Democratic congresswoman, facing potential investigations pushed by President Trump and House Republicans, said she isn’t as wealthy as documents she previously submitted to Congress suggest.

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Apr 17 • 6:19 PM EDT • Politics • wsj.com
Democratic Senate hopefuls put California cash in the bank

California donors helped Democrats in key Senate races outraise their Republican opponents, according to latest campaign filings.

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Apr 17 • 12:14 PM EDT • Politics • latimes.com
Sara Rodriguez questions electability of rivals running for governor

Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez is questioning the electability of her top competitors in the Democratic primary for governor.

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Apr 17 • 10:19 AM EDT • Politics • jsonline.com
Science Committee Democratic Staff Report Reveals Details on NASA’s Illegal Implementation of Trump’s FY2026 Budget Request Without Congressional Approval

The House Committee on Science, Space and Technology

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Apr 17 • 8:00 AM EDT • Science • democrats-science.house.gov
In Texas Senate Race, Talarico Is Out-Raising His G.O.P. Opponents

James Talarico, the Democratic nominee, has been amassing campaign cash as Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton still battle each other.

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Apr 17 • 5:04 AM EDT • Politics • nytimes.com
Here are the Republicans running for Congress in Ohio's 1st District

There's a crowded Republican primary this year of candidates hoping to unseat incumbent Cincinnati Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman.

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Apr 17 • 12:15 AM EDT • Politics • cincinnati.com
What to know about the Hamilton County commissioner primary debate

A Hamilton County commissioner primary debate featured sparring between three Democratic candidates about public safety and affordable housing.

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Apr 16 • 10:09 PM EDT • Politics • cincinnati.com
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California Senate Democrats propose new health care tax on major companies

California's Democratic State Senators are proposing a new tax on major corporations to help with the state's health care costs.

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Apr 16 • 6:39 PM EDT • Health • kcra.com
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House Again Thwarts Bid to Halt Iran War Unless Congress Approves It

Republicans narrowly blocked a Democratic war powers resolution that would have prevented President Trump from continuing to wage war in Iran until he won authorization from Congress to do so.

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Apr 16 • 12:18 PM EDT • Politics • nytimes.com
Participation, Debate and Community: Exploring Ancient Democratic Values in Modern Society | Pomona College in Claremont, California

Associate Professor of Classics Benjamin Keim explains what our methods for assessing potential officeholders have in common with those of the ancient Athenians.

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Apr 16 • 11:31 AM EDT • Politics • pomona.edu
Snail-Borne Diseases in Central Africa: Lessons from Citizen Science

The ATRAP project in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda provides insights to the factors that shape citizen science practice in low- and medium-income countries (LMIC).

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Apr 16 • 8:00 AM EDT • Science • eos.org
GOP, Dem challenger hit Rebecca Cooke for outside political work

Rebecca Cooke cultivates an image as a political outsider, but her opponents say that masks her years of outside work for Democratic groups.

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Apr 16 • 6:02 AM EDT • Politics • jsonline.com
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Talarico Leads a Democratic Cash Surge: 7 Takeaways From 2026 Filings

Democrats in key Senate races out-raised their Republican rivals, but super PACs on the right are poised to play a powerful role in the midterms, new campaign finance filings showed.

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Apr 16 • 5:06 AM EDT • Politics • nytimes.com
Meet the Democrats running for Hamilton County commissioner

It's a battle of local government officials this May in the Democratic primary for Hamilton County commissioner.

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Apr 16 • 12:25 AM EDT • Politics • cincinnati.com
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Democratic lawmakers seek fix to Colorado’s stalled prison population plan

Colorado’s prison population plan was designed to prevent overcrowding. Instead, eight months after it was triggered, the system remains strained and largely ineffective, prompting two Democratic lawmakers to push for changes through new legislation. According to its sponsors, Senate Bill 036 lays out the proposed changes. Sen. Mike Weissman and Sen. Julie Gonzales say the […]

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Apr 15 • 4:24 PM EDT • Politics • coloradopolitics.com
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Delaware Democrats push for an earlier primary day

Evelyn Brady, the State Chair of the Delaware Democratic Party, discussed her state's bid for an early primary.

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Apr 15 • 2:51 PM EDT • Politics • nbcphiladelphia.com
The main issues Democratic candidates will focus on in 2028

Democrats are facing a new political arena without Trump as an opponent

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Apr 15 • 2:03 PM EDT • Politics • theweek.com
‘We need to have another reckoning’, that’s what one Democratic influencer says Congress needs nearly a decade after #MeToo
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Apr 15 • 1:26 PM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
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Can Europe create artificial intelligence that we actually understand?

Artificial intelligence is currently controlled by a number of tech giants in the United States and China. One professor believes Europe can choose to take a smarter and more democratic path.

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Apr 15 • 9:32 AM EDT • Science • eurekalert.org
Planned Parenthood endorses Mills in Maine U.S. Senate race

Mills is in a three-way Democratic primary on the June 9 ballot. She faces Sullivan oyster farmer and veteran Graham Platner and former federal official David Costello of Brunswick.

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Apr 15 • 7:03 AM EDT • Politics • spectrumlocalnews.com
Worried about the midterms, Republicans mobilize rural Virginia voters against redistricting

Republican groups are mounting an intensifying, 11th-hour campaign to mobilize rural voters ahead of Virginia’s April 21 referendum to redraw its US House maps. At stake are as many as four US House seats Democrats want to redraw in their favor for the midterms. To maximize Democratic advantage, the map would put wealthy Washington, DC, suburbs in the same districts as farm communities 90 miles away, including in one misshapen district nicknamed the “lobster claw.”

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Apr 15 • 5:00 AM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
How Eric Swalwell rose to the top of Democratic politics as rumors followed him

Allies like Rep. Nancy Pelosi and Sen. Ruben Gallego say they knew nothing about the misconduct allegations, with Gallego saying the congressman led a “double life.”

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Apr 15 • 5:00 AM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
Comer, Democrats spar over Bondi testimony schedule

Rep. James Comer and his Democratic counterpart on the House Oversight Committee are sparring over a subpoena of former Attorney General Pam Bondi.

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Apr 15 • 5:00 AM EDT • Politics • spectrumnews1.com
Swalwell resigns from Congress following allegations of sexual misconduct

Once a rising star in the Democratic party, Eric Swalwell's stunning fall from grace was cemented Tuesday as his resignation letter was read by the House Clerk.

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Apr 14 • 9:03 PM EDT • Politics • spectrumlocalnews.com
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Swalwell resigns from Congress following allegations of sexual misconduct

Once a rising star in the Democratic party, Eric Swalwell's stunning fall from grace was cemented Tuesday as his resignation letter was read by the House Clerk.

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Apr 14 • 9:03 PM EDT • Politics • spectrumlocalnews.com
Trump again rejects Colorado amid accusations of playing politics with disaster aid

FORT COLLINS, Colo. (AP) — President Donald Trump has again denied a request from Colorado's governor to help people affected by wildfires and flooding, consistent with his approval of major disaster aid to Republican-leaning states at about twice the rate he approves aid requests from Democratic...

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Apr 14 • 5:13 PM EDT • Politics • wral.com
What Swalwell’s exit means for Democrats in California’s governor race

Billionaire Tom Steyer and ex-congresswoman Katie Porter stand to benefit the most in a Democratic field with no clear front-runner, several strategists said.

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Apr 14 • 4:10 PM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
Woman alleges violent sexual assault by Eric Swalwell: 'He raped me’

A day after Rep. Eric Swallwell said he would resign from Congress, a Beverly Hills woman detailed what she described as a violent sexual encounter with the Democratic lawmaker.

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Apr 14 • 1:11 PM EDT • Politics • calmatters.org
Democrats line up to run in Virginia congressional districts, even before voters approve them

Virginia voters are set to decide next week on a Democratic-drawn redistricting plan that could boost the party's chances in the U.S. House | TALK 980am

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Apr 14 • 1:03 PM EDT • Politics • audacy.com
House Republicans Step Up Scrutiny of ActBlue Over Foreign Donations

Three Republican-led committees, responding to a New York Times report this month, accused the Democratic fund-raising organization of withholding documents from a subpoena request.

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Apr 14 • 12:00 PM EDT • Politics • nytimes.com
What happens to the California governor's race after Swalwell's exit?

In a crowded race with no clear leader in the heavily Democratic state, Rep. Eric Swalwell's exit presents an opportunity for his one-time rivals to pick off former supporters just weeks before mail ballots go to voters.

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Apr 14 • 11:46 AM EDT • Politics • pbs.org
'Pagan' outreach, Wiccan prayer defense could haunt Dem in battleground race

Iowa Democratic candidate and Lutheran minister Sarah Trone Garriott backed a Wiccan witch's prayer, saying Jesus engaged with pagans multiple times.

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Apr 14 • 10:16 AM EDT • Politics • foxnews.com
Olivia Troye, former Pence adviser turned Trump critic, launches Democratic bid for US House from Virginia

Olivia Troye, a former adviser to Vice President Mike Pence, announced Tuesday that she would run for Congress as a Democrat in Virginia’s proposed new 7th District, pending passage of a sweeping redistricting referendum this month.

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Apr 14 • 7:00 AM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
Former Pence adviser Olivia Troye runs for Congress as a Democrat

Troye, who resigned from the White House in 2020 and became a vocal critic of President Trump, will run in Virginia's redrawn 7th Congressional District, which is Democratic-friendly.

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Apr 14 • 7:00 AM EDT • Politics • nbcnews.com
High-Signal Publisher
Jan-Werner Müller awarded University professorship, reflects on democracy and academic freedom

Jan-Werner Müller, scholar of democratic theory and the history of political thought, was named Class of 1943 University Professor of Politics. He sat down with the ‘Prince’ to discuss his research, teaching, the role of political theory, and concerns about student engagement and academic freedom on campus.

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Apr 14 • 2:18 AM EDT • Politics • dailyprincetonian.com
Congressional candidate Jack Schlossberg thinks Democrats need a makeover

He told NY1 that thinks he can come out on top of a crowded Democratic primary field to represent parts of Manhattan.

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Apr 13 • 8:05 PM EDT • Politics • ny1.com
Political newcomer running for Rep. Golden's seat in US House

At 29 years old, Paige Loud is the youngest candidate in the Democratic primary race for Maine's 2nd Congressional District.

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Apr 13 • 6:43 PM EDT • Politics • wmtw.com
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‘Consider it one more sign of the decline in the democratic experiment’

Opinion, comment and editorials of the day

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Apr 13 • 11:52 AM EDT • Politics • theweek.com
Swalwell exits California governor's race after assault allegations

Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell’s abrupt exit from the race for California governor left his rivals scrambling to lock down his former supporters in a crowded contest with no clear leader, injecting more turmoil into the campaign to lead the nation’s most populous state.

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Apr 13 • 9:31 AM EDT • Politics • pbs.org
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After Charlie Kirk’s Death, a Fight for the Youth Vote

A fledgling Democratic group and the far-right white nationalist Nick Fuentes seek to make gains on college campuses that have recently been dominated by Turning Point USA.

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Apr 13 • 5:02 AM EDT • Politics • nytimes.com
Zohran Mamdani celebrates ‘pothole politics’ in a raucous rally marking 100 days as NYC mayor

Having just marked his first 100 days as New York mayor, Zohran Mamdani told a roaring crowd of supporters, city workers and political allies his administration has already delivered evidence a democratic socialist can, in fact, govern.

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Apr 12 • 10:26 PM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
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Zohran Mamdani touted socialist philosophy of 'pothole politics' while reviewing first 100 days as mayor

"I was elected as a Democratic socialist," he said in a speech on his first 100 days as mayor. "And I will govern as a Democratic socialist."

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Apr 12 • 9:06 PM EDT • Politics • newsday.com
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Eric Swalwell drops bid for California governor after sexual misconduct allegations

The Democratic candidate faced immediate calls to end his campaign, with many supporters withdrawing their endorsements.

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Apr 12 • 8:44 PM EDT • Politics • nbcnews.com
High-Signal Publisher
Eric Swalwell ends campaign for California governor after sexual misconduct allegations

Rep. Eric Swalwell said Sunday he would withdraw from the California governor’s race in the wake of allegations of sexual misconduct that led to a nearly immediate campaign collapse, as staffers quit and prominent Democratic supporters urged him to drop out.

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Apr 12 • 8:43 PM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
Eric Swalwell ends campaign for California governor after sexual misconduct allegations

Rep. Eric Swalwell said Sunday he would withdraw from the California governor’s race in the wake of allegations of sexual misconduct that led to a nearly immediate campaign collapse, as staffers quit and prominent Democratic supporters urged him to drop out.

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Apr 12 • 8:43 PM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
Leah Halton-Pope named Democratic candidate for 141st Assembly District

It comes after Crystal Peoples-Stokes announced this past week she would not seek reelection.

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Apr 12 • 6:29 PM EDT • Politics • spectrumlocalnews.com
AIPAC may be a new litmus test for Democratic candidates. Leaders say voters' heads are elsewhere.

Last week's Democratic National Committee meeting illustrated a party trying to stay focused on economic issues while grappling with strong, changing opinions on Israel.

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Apr 12 • 5:24 PM EDT • Politics • nbcnews.com
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Calls grow for Rep. Swalwell to resign or be expelled over misconduct claims

Several Democratic and Republican lawmakers said they would be in favor of voting to expel Swalwell, as well as Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas), who both face misconduct allegations.

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Apr 12 • 2:15 PM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
Weekly Briefing: Israel is losing its grip on U.S. politics

Support for Israel is collapsing in U.S. politics. The Iran war has fractured the MAGA base, military aid has become a Democratic litmus test, and AIPAC is losing primaries.

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Apr 12 • 1:52 PM EDT • Politics • mondoweiss.net
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Fallout from Eric Swalwell scandal grows as lawmakers eye House expulsion votes

The political crisis surrounding Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell is rapidly escalating into a broader bipartisan showdown that could reshape the makeup of the House.

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Apr 12 • 1:48 PM EDT • Politics • cbsnews.com
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Stein questions whether state’s data center incentives still make sense

Sales tax exemptions could cost N.C. $450 million as new data centers come online, the Democratic governor said.

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Apr 12 • 1:18 PM EDT • Politics • spectrumlocalnews.com
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The Guardian view on AI politics: US datacentre protests are a warning to big tech

Editorial: In both Republican and Democratic states, scepticism and hostility towards an unregulated construction boom is growing

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Apr 12 • 12:42 PM EDT • Politics • theguardian.com
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Column: Bye, bye Eric. Swalwell needs to go

Swalwell needs to drop out of the governor's race and resign from Congress.

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Apr 12 • 9:00 AM EDT • Politics • latimes.com
The most important Democratic health care debate is raging again

Single payer is getting a second wind.

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Apr 12 • 6:00 AM EDT • Health • cnn.com
Pope Leo for president someday? Don't even think about it

A recent meeting between Pope Leo XIV and Democratic strategist David Axelrod at the Vatican sparks some intrigue and slight political speculation.

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Apr 12 • 5:08 AM EDT • Politics • usatoday.com
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Former ‘Citgo 6’ political prisoner sees ‘karma’ in Maduro ouster, but Venezuelan oil won’t rebound until there’s true regime change

Former 'Citgo Six' captive sees democratic elections as the only way to build international business trust in Venezuela again.

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Apr 12 • 3:03 AM EDT • Politics • fortune.com
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Takeaways From the First Big Gathering of Potential 2028 Democratic Candidates

The National Action Network convention showcased similarities and some differences in a wide open field of possible contenders.

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Apr 11 • 3:50 PM EDT • Politics • nytimes.com
Jerry Demings continues to lag behind David Jolly in fundraising race for Democratic gubernatorial nomination

The former Republican has a five-to-one financial edge over the Central Florida political veteran.

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Apr 11 • 2:13 PM EDT • Politics • floridapolitics.com
“AI polls” are fake polls

A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.

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Apr 11 • 11:38 AM EDT • Technology • natesilver.net
Texas House committee slaps Democrats with nearly $422K in penalties for 2025 quorum break

The Committee on House Administration voted along party lines to fine 50-plus Democratic members more than $8,000 apiece for fleeing the state to try to block a GOP-led congressional redistricting plan.

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Apr 11 • 6:00 AM EDT • Politics • houstonpublicmedia.org
How Congress’s bipartisan high point led to our era of political rancor

36 years ago, a Republican president and Democratic lawmakers produced monumental laws. Now, a broken Congress has enabled Trump to undo key parts of that legacy.

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Apr 11 • 5:00 AM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
Inside Iowa Politics: Rob Sand’s plan to change elections

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand wants to change Iowa's primary election system.

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Apr 11 • 12:00 AM EDT • Politics • ktiv.com
Inside Iowa Politics: Rob Sand’s plan to change elections

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand wants to change Iowa's primary election system.

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Apr 11 • 12:00 AM EDT • Politics • keyc.com
Inside Iowa Politics: Rob Sand’s plan to change elections

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand wants to change Iowa's primary election system.

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Apr 11 • 12:00 AM EDT • Politics • kttc.com
Democrats withdraw endorsements of Eric Swalwell and demand he end bid for California governor

Rep. Eric Swalwell’s bid for the California governor’s office was reeling Friday as staffers resigned and top Democratic supporters withdrew their endorsements in the wake of allegations of sexual misconduct.

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Apr 10 • 7:25 PM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
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43%
Exclusive: Four women describe sexual misconduct by Rep. Eric Swalwell, including a former staffer who says he raped her

A former staffer of Rep. Eric Swalwell, a leading Democratic candidate for California governor, says that the congressman raped her when she was heavily intoxicated, an allegation Swalwell strongly denies.

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Apr 10 • 6:29 PM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
Candidates for California governor call on Swalwell to drop out after allegations of sexual assault

The Democratic congressmember came under pressure after the San Francisco Chronicle reported that a former staffer alleged the congressmember sexually assaulted her.

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Apr 10 • 6:16 PM EDT • Politics • calmatters.org
Possible Democratic 2028 Candidates Are Already Fighting for Black Voters’ Support

Possible presidential candidates are already courting a crucial Democratic constituency.

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Apr 10 • 5:31 PM EDT • Politics • nytimes.com
Potential Democratic 2028 Candidates Condemn Trump’s ‘War of Choice’ in Iran

At a convention in New York, several Democrats mulling presidential bids rallied around opposition to President Trump’s decision to attack Iran.

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Apr 10 • 3:28 PM EDT • Politics • nytimes.com
Democratic Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi says Melania Trump’s Epstein statement was ‘very important’
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Apr 10 • 1:34 PM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
Trump administration admits a glaring error in its accusations about New York health care fraud

NEW YORK (AP) — President Donald Trump's administration this week acknowledged it made a significant error in figures it used to help justify a fraud probe into New York’s Medicaid program, a glaring mistake that undercuts a federal campaign to tackle waste, mostly in Democratic-led states.

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Apr 10 • 7:18 AM EDT • Health • wral.com
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46%
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28%
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26%
Calls to Impeach Trump Collide With Reluctant Democratic Leadership

Democratic leaders are urging against efforts within the party to impeach Trump before the midterms, say those involved in the debate

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Apr 10 • 7:00 AM EDT • Politics • time.com
Democrats worry Schumer’s pick in Maine could imperil hopes of Senate control

Maine’s Democratic governor, Janet Mills, has gone negative against Graham Platner. The attacks have not worked, and Minority Leader Charles Schumer so far has declined to bail her out.

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Apr 10 • 5:00 AM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
Possible presidential candidate rallies Dems in Cincinnati with Pureval

Michigan Sen. Elissa Slotkin and Cincinnati Mayor Aftab Pureval discussed broadening the Democratic Party's appeal in the Midwest.

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Apr 9 • 9:27 PM EDT • Politics • cincinnati.com
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52%
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24%
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24%
Trump and his party confront the political perils of chaos: From the Politics Desk

Plus, what Democratic voters in two states with key Democratic primaries are looking for.

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Apr 9 • 5:56 PM EDT • Politics • nbcnews.com
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'We got our butts kicked.' Republicans rattled by Democratic momentum ahead of midterms

Simmering discontent could boomerang on Republicans just two years after Trump harnessed voters' anger with his comeback presidential campaign.

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Apr 9 • 2:26 PM EDT • Politics • pbs.org
WATCH: Democratic presidential prospects flock to Al Sharpton's conference in New York

The Democratic Party's most ambitious politicians are courting African American activists in New York this week as the party's unofficial 2028 presidential nomination contest takes shape at an annual conference led by Rev. Al Sharpton.

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Apr 9 • 1:27 PM EDT • Politics • pbs.org
🙂 Positive (35%)
‘A clear and present danger to the country": Democratic Congresswoman on calls for Pres. Trump to be removed from office
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Apr 9 • 12:46 PM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
Republicans block Democratic bill to end Iran war amid tenuous ceasefire

Republicans in the House of Representatives blocked Democrats from considering a measure to halt military hostilities in Iran.

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Apr 9 • 11:58 AM EDT • Politics • usatoday.com
A new health care blueprint from a key Democratic think tank

Democrats are focused on health care affordability as costs keep climbing.

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Apr 9 • 11:40 AM EDT • Health • statnews.com
☹️ Negative (-17%)
How Teach for America Helped Set Up James Talarico’s Political Rise

The prestigious education group is more than a shiny resume item. For the Democratic Senate candidate, it was an incubator for his rapid political ascent.

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Apr 9 • 10:15 AM EDT • Politics • texasobserver.org
Rep. Seth Moulton picks: Josh Shapiro or Gavin Newsrom?

Democratic Rep. Seth Moulton, who launched a primary challenge against Sen. Ed Markey to represent Massachusetts in the U.S. Senate, answered rapid-fire questions on his decision to return money from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), his past comments about trans athletes and his stance on ICE. With the 2026 elections underway, The Post's Anna Liss-Roy is grilling candidates in races across the country, pressing Democrats and Republicans to share their takes at high-speed.

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Apr 9 • 8:00 AM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
On Social Media, Democratic Politicians Are Letting the F-Word Fly

In person, on social media and in campaign ads, Democratic politicians are swearing with glee. It is usually aimed at President Trump.

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Apr 9 • 5:00 AM EDT • Politics • nytimes.com
Iran war spurs renewed Democratic calls for war powers resolution

Democratic Party leaders are renewing calls to curb President Donald Trump’s war powers, including one Democrat who previously voted against ending U.S. involvement in Iran.

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Apr 8 • 4:34 PM EDT • Politics • spectrumnews1.com
Influential Democratic think tank pushes plan for government to lower health care costs

Democrats are honing in on health care affordability as a key issue, ahead of the midterm elections.

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Apr 8 • 4:07 PM EDT • Health • statnews.com
😐 Neutral (8%)
Another Big Night for Democrats: Tuesday’s Wisconsin and Georgia Results

Democrats enjoyed another double-digit victory in a Wisconsin state Supreme Court race; their win will expand the liberal majority on the body to 5-2. Meanwhile, Republicans held GA-14, although it made for another Democratic overperformance.

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Apr 8 • 2:16 PM EDT • Politics • centerforpolitics.org
Hasan Piker tests the limits of the Democratic Party’s big tent
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Apr 8 • 1:51 PM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
Dunlap fields questions from voters during Bangor town hall

In a wide-ranging town hall conversation in Bangor Tuesday night, Democratic 2nd Congressional District Candidate Matt Dunlap said he will not be accepting money from Political Action Committees and will prioritize issues that matter to Mainers.

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Apr 8 • 12:02 PM EDT • Politics • spectrumlocalnews.com
‘One of the most dysfunctional places’: One lawmaker on Lansing’s challenges

Calling the state capitol “one of the most dysfunctional places” in America, Democratic State Rep. Alabas Farhat joins the pod for a candid conversation about the challenges facing Lansing

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Apr 8 • 7:34 AM EDT • Politics • michiganpublic.org
Opinion: The socialists are coming!

Democratic socialist candidates are targeting state House Democrats and local races across Georgia in 2026.

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Apr 8 • 6:02 AM EDT • Politics • ajc.com
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50%
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50%
Democratic ally lays out health affordability plan

Democrats are increasingly talking about lowering underlying health care costs.

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Apr 8 • 5:30 AM EDT • Health • axios.com
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Where's the business exodus from NYC Mamdani critics promised?

New data offers a promising sign for Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist who proposed various tax hikes during his New York City mayoral campaign.

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Apr 8 • 5:08 AM EDT • Business • usatoday.com
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72%
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28%
SC Democrats want to break GOP supermajority in House. Can they swing 6 seats?

South Carolina Republican lawmakers dominate both chambers, allowing them to pass laws without support from the other parties. Will Democratic candidates upset the supermajority this year?

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Apr 8 • 5:00 AM EDT • Politics • thestate.com
Remigration and the New Far-Right Politics of Mass Deportation

Panelists will explore the various interpretations and adaptations of a remigration agenda to fit local political and social contexts in Europe, the UK, and the US, offering regional perspectives on this growing transnational narrative and its implications for democratic governance, civil rights, and the future of immigration policy.

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Apr 8 • 3:37 AM EDT • Politics • csohate.org
SC GOP, Democratic gubernatorial candidates make pitch to business leaders at bipartisan forum

Democratic and Republican candidates for South Carolina governor made their pitches to members of the state’s business community Tuesday night at a bipartisan forum held at the University of South Carolina’s Darla Moore School of Business.

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Apr 8 • 1:11 AM EDT • Business • wistv.com
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63%
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37%
Democratic House Leader Jeffries: ‘A two-week ceasefire isn’t sufficient’
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Apr 7 • 11:08 PM EDT • Politics • cnn.com