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New to politics, Skovgard throws his hat in the race for U.S. Senate
CODY — In the Parable of the Sower, a sower throws seeds out in a field, and some are choked by thorns; others are eaten by birds; some fall onto
Global wealth jumps but disparity widens, UBS report shows
Since 2020, average wealth per US adult has grown 10%, while median wealth has fallen 20%.
America’s next 250? A revival of civic virtues might hold the key.
Democracy requires civic engagement – and it can sometimes seem to be falling short. But the seeds of renewal are visible, from potluck dinners to youth programs.
Oil price ‘may fall to $60 a barrel’ as voyages through the strait of Hormuz jump
Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news
Russia's services downturn deepens as new business falls at fastest pace since December 2022, PMI shows
Russia's services sector contracted further in June as weaker client demand drove steeper falls in output and new orders, a business survey showed on Friday.
UH to cease science operations at Maunakea’s UKIRT telescope this fall
The United Kingdom Infrared Telescope is one of thirteen working telescopes on the mountain’s summit and the third to be decommissioned.
Oregon merges psychedelic mushroom, medical marijuana regulators, proposes fee hike
The Oregon Health Authority is making administrative and personnel changes to its psychedelic mushroom and marijuana services, citing “budget shortfalls.”
Donald Trump's Freedom 250 celebration suffers setback as falling panel nearly crushes dancers
Donald Trump's beleaguered Freedom 250 celebration suffered another potentially disastrous setback on Thursday, when a large panel on the White House main stage fell, nearly crushing a group of dancers.
Schumer pushes to delay SNAP cuts, warns of costs falling on county budgets
Schumer appeared in Wyoming County Thursday.
UH to cease science operations at Maunakea’s UKIRT telescope this fall
The United Kingdom Infrared Telescope is one of thirteen working telescopes on the mountain’s summit and the third to be decommissioned.
Booming business: America250 celebrations boost fireworks shops
Pyrotechnics dealers say the Fourth of July falling on a Saturday and the 250th anniversary of the United States have teamed up to make this one of the best years ever for fireworks sales.
Badgers key 2027 commit took official visit to SEC school
The Badgers will be fighting for one of their top commits throughout the Fall.
Mississippi’s top health officer: Measles cases are ‘inevitable’ as county vaccination rates fall
Mississippi’s kindergarten vaccination rates declined during the most recent academic year, continuing a downward trend that began after the state started granting religious exemptions for school vaccine requirements.
Avowed, The Outer Worlds, and Fallout: New Vegas Developer Obsidian Entertainment Reportedly Also at Risk of Closure Amid Xbox 'Reset'
Avowed and The Outer Worlds developer Obsidian is reportedly also at risk of closure amid Microsoft’s “reset” of the Xbox business.
Avowed, The Outer Worlds, and Fallout: New Vegas Developer Obsidian Entertainment Reportedly Also at Risk of Closure Amid Xbox 'Reset'
Avowed and The Outer Worlds developer Obsidian is reportedly also at risk of closure amid Microsoft’s “reset” of the Xbox business.
Family business opens state's first solar-powered manufacturing facility
Meet the under-the-radar family business that today opens the state's first solar-powered manufacturing facility.
U.S. filings for jobless aid fall to 215,000 as layoffs remain at historically healthy levels
WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. applications for jobless aid inched down last week as layoffs remain at historically healthy levels. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits in the week ending…
Ocasio-Cortez Endorses Abdul El-Sayed in Crucial Michigan Senate Race
The endorsement is the first in a contested Senate primary by Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez this year, in a state that Democrats believe they must hold this fall to win a Senate majority.
Fixing the health cost crisis
As health costs are expected to be top-of-mind for voters ahead of the midterms, both parties are falling short on proposals that will actually solve the crisis.
NASA launches bold mission to rescue a falling space telescope before it crashes to Earth
NASA's Swift Observatory is slated to enter Earth's atmosphere later this year, but the Katalyst Space spacecraft aims to boost it higher this summer.
Mitch McConnell has had freezes, falls and health scares. See timeline
Sen. Mitch McConnell has had multiple freezes, falls and health scares in recent years. See the timeline of when these incidents occurred.
The US healthcare system is in crisis. A Supreme Court ruling could make things worse
The effects of the high court ruling that could lead to mass deportations will be felt across hospitals and emergency rooms, which already operate under persistent staffing shortfalls. But it's the long-term health care sector that will suffer the greatest disruptions, according to experts.
UK cost of living squeeze eases after record fall in diesel prices, and drop in mortgage rates
Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news
All politics is local — even the Declaration of Independence
"What I found to my surprise," said Maier, "was this mass of local 'declarations of independence,' the greater part of which come from Massachusetts."
UH continues UKIRT decommissioning; science operations to end this fall | University of Hawaiʻi System News
UKIRT will become the third Maunakea telescope to be decommissioned. Science operations at UKIRT will conclude on September 15.
Borscht Belt entertainment
Borscht Belt entertainment The growth of comedy and music FALLSBURG, NY — The third and newest in a series of programs on the Borscht Belt by local author and …
Ukraine's General Valery Zaluzhny emerges as a key figure in national politics
While still hypothetical, elections have reportedly been discussed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for the fall, fueling speculation about a possible candidacy by the former commander-in-chief. Like Zaluzhny, several senior officers enjoy strong public support and could play a major role in political life after the war.
Does Trump Worry About Conflicts of Interest? ‘I Found Out That Nobody Cared.’
American presidents have generally tried to avoid appearing to profit from the office. President Trump has chosen a different path.
Video shows masked thieves smashing glass, grabbing items during Bowie business break-in
WBFF Fox45 provides local news, weather forecasts, traffic updates, notices of events and items of interest in the community, sports and entertainment programming for Baltimore and nearby towns and communities in Maryland, including Annapolis, Crofton, Glen Burnie, Linthicum, Pasadena, Severn, Cockeysville, Dundalk, Essex, Parkville, Owings Mills, Towson, White Marsh, Woodlawn, Hampstead, Sykesville, Taneytown, Westminster, Elkton, Perryville, Pt. Deposit, Rising Sun, Aberdeen, Abingdon, Bel Air, Edgewood, Fallston, Havre De Grace, Columbia, Elkridge, Ellicott City, Fulton, and Ocean City.
Little Falls Pool Open for the Season!
Thanks to donations from around the country the Little Falls public swimming pool will be open for the season.
Sudden danger: the science and stakes of flash flood forecasting
Flash floods pose a major threat to lives and property. When it comes to researching them, understanding the rain as it falls is only half the battle. The next step is knowing how the water will move once it hits the ground.
PlayStation Plus July 2026 free games lineup announced, including Modern Warfare 3
Play a recent Call of Duty for free before Modern Warfare 4 drops this fall
iPhone 18 Pro to offer only these three colors, per leaker
Here are the new iPhone 18 Pro colors launching this fall, according to leaker Instant Digital, and the one that could be missing.
Sanford Health announces new research president, leadership restructuring
Sanford Health has named a new president for Sanford Research along with what it's calling a leadership realignment.
Meta Stock Rises on Report It’s Building a Cloud Business. CoreWeave Drops.
Meta rises on a report that it hopes to generate revenue from selling excess computing power to third parties. CoreWeave and Nebius are falling.
Lawmakers must put women’s health, dignity and lives ahead of politics
Each year since the fall of Roe, the Louisiana Legislature has advanced increasingly aggressive versions of the state's abortion ban, often under the guise of targeting bad actors.
Lawmakers must put women’s health, dignity and lives ahead of politics
Each year since the fall of Roe, the Louisiana Legislature has advanced increasingly aggressive versions of the state's abortion ban, often under the guise of targeting bad actors.
2026-27 Season Tickets for LMU Fall and Winter Sports Now on Sale
LMU Athletics has announced that season tickets for all 2026-27 fall and winter sports are now on sale, with packages available for men's and women's soccer, women's volleyball, and men's and women's basketball.
Yankees still falling way behind, still searching after latest loss
This time, Cam Schlittler was roughed up, and the Yankees' lineup once again couldn't mount anything in a 9-3 loss to Detroit, their sixth straight.
US pullback from NATO echoes the set-up of 'Ernstfall' wargame
The new podcast "Ernstfall" examines the challenges Germany would face in a war crisis without US support.
Android 17's new lock screen trick could frustrate anyone trying to break into your phone
Google has detailed how Android 17 implements tougher lock screen security by drastically reducing PIN guess attempts and more.
Central College to offer data science major
Central College will begin offering a new degree program this fall aimed at preparing students for data-focused professions across a number of industries. The Pella private college announced in a
Kathy Griffin claims she's 'banned' from Jimmy Fallon's 'Tonight Show' for being 'too controversial'
Kathy Griffin claims she was informally 'banned' from Jimmy Fallon's 'Tonight Show' for being 'inappropriate or too controversial,' and slammed the show for platforming the likes of Donald Trump and Conor McGregor.
There's a Waterfall in Antarctica That Bleeds Red – Here's What's Hiding Inside It
Antarctica's Blood Falls are even weirder than they look.
Anthropic Launches Claude Science AI Workbench for Scientific Research
June 30, 2026 — AI has the potential to dramatically accelerate the pace of scientific discovery and the development of healthcare interventions. Since launching efforts in the life sciences last fall, […]
Politics: High Cost Of Healthcare And The Political Fallout
Americans are grappling with a rising cost in healthcare. For the first time in five years, fewer than half of Americans can consistently afford healthcare. That’s according to the latest data from Gallup. The cost of healthcare in the US remains higher than any other large, wealthy country. According to a report from the Department of Health and Human Services, five million fewer people are enrolled in marketplace plans for 2026, compared to last year. That’s as average premium costs rose about 58%.With health care costs increasingly becoming a stress for Americans, voters are now making the issue a top priority at the ballot box. And it’s an issue that crosses party and geographic lines. According to new polling from The Century Foundation, 71% of Democrats, 66% of Republicans and 75% of rural voters agree that reigning in hospital costs should be a top priority for lawmakers. While new polling from Ipsos and Axios suggests that a majority of Americans say they’re more likely to vote for candidates in November who will lower their health costs.How will the issue of healthcare shape the midterms? And how are Americans grappling with the cost of their health?Find more of our programs online. Listen to 1A sponsor-free by signing up for 1A+ at plus.npr.org/the1a.
Politics: High Cost Of Healthcare And The Political Fallout
Americans are grappling with a rising cost in healthcare. For the first time in five years, fewer than half of Americans can consistently afford healthcare. That’s according to the latest data from Gallup. The cost of healthcare in the US remains higher than any other large, wealthy country. According to a report from the Department of Health and Human Services, five million fewer people are enrolled in marketplace plans for 2026, compared to last year. That’s as average premium costs rose about 58%.With health care costs increasingly becoming a stress for Americans, voters are now making the issue a top priority at the ballot box. And it’s an issue that crosses party and geographic lines. According to new polling from The Century Foundation, 71% of Democrats, 66% of Republicans and 75% of rural voters agree that reigning in hospital costs should be a top priority for lawmakers. While new polling from Ipsos and Axios suggests that a majority of Americans say they’re more likely to vote for candidates in November who will lower their health costs.How will the issue of healthcare shape the midterms? And how are Americans grappling with the cost of their health?Find more of our programs online. Listen to 1A sponsor-free by signing up for 1A+ at plus.npr.org/the1a.
New to politics, Skovgard throws his hat in the race for U.S. Senate
CODY — In the Parable of the Sower, a sower throws seeds out in a field, and some are choked by thorns; others are eaten by birds; some fall onto
Germany's heat wave has a political fallout
In the wake of the heat wave, critics say the government needs to do more to adapt to climate change.
Swift Boost Mission: An opportunity for science and defense
Instead of letting a 22-year-old space telescope fall to Earth, NASA wants to rescue the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory with a robotic spacecraft designed to boost the telescope back into higher orbit.
Twin Cities Somali businesses face long, slow recovery after Operation Metro Surge
Customer traffic and spending remain down, and many Somali-owned shops have had to lay off workers and fallen behind on rent.
UK living standards fall despite fastest growth in G7
Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as GDP quarterly national accounts show how UK economy fared in January to March 2026
Oil markets move from fearing shortages to worrying about surpluses
Global oil supply recovery eases shortage fears as Brent crude falls to $73. Wall Street is lowering forecasts amid demand concerns.
Bullpen blows it as Rockies fall to Marlins 10-7
Hunter Goodman hits 26th HR as his hot June continues
Oil falls as investors focus on potential Iran-US talks in Doha
Oil prices dropped on Tuesday, with investors eyeing the outcome of potential U.S.-Iran talks in Doha amid weekend missile fire from both sides that tested an interim ceasefire to end the four-month-old war.
'You're so full of it': Gee blasts Seattle's 'performative' homelessness politics as city loses nearly 700 shelter beds
Seattle's homelessness policies fall short, with nearly 700 shelter beds cut, revealing a need for more effective solutions.
Slotkin Joins Michigan Delegation Urging Small Business Administration to Approve Disaster Declaration
WASHINGTON, D.C. — U.S. Senator Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), Member of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, joined members of the Michigan Congressional Delegation in urging the Small Business Administration (SBA) to support Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer’s request for an administrative disaster declaration following the severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, high winds, large hail and torrential rainfall across the state in April. […]
Hood College Launches Accelerated One-Year Master of Science in Environmental Biology Track
Beginning in Fall 2026, Hood College's Graduate School will offer a new accelerated, 30-credit track within its Master of Science in Environmental Biology program, providing students with a pathway to earn their degree in just one academic year while gaining valuable hands-on research experience.
Fall sports tryout schedule available - Pine Bush Central School District
The schedule for tryouts and practice for fall sports is now posted! Click here for all you need to know for modified, JV and varsity fall sports.
Jackson fallout, Tuberville fight shape Alabama politics
Jackson Hospital, medical cannabis, Tuberville’s residency fight, tax reform and family farms reveal Alabama politics under pressure again this week.
World Cup 2026 exit leaves South Korean football in crisis
After crashing out of the World Cup, BBC Sport investigates the rise and fall of South Korean football.
Central College to offer data science major this fall
Central College will offer a new data science major starting this fall, bringing together STEM, social sciences and humanities teaching.
Platner Has Slight Edge Over Collins in Tight Maine Senate Race, Poll Finds
The Maine race, which both parties see as key to winning control of the Senate, is extremely close as the sprint to fall begins, a Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena poll found.
Is this World Cup now Europe v South America? Which giants fall today? Day 18 recap
Sunday was the strangest day of this World Cup, in that there was only one match, sandwiched between days with six and three respectively. This was for scheduling reasons: no third-placed sides could have played on Sunday, given that the identity of the eight sides and their precise fixtures had only been decided on Saturday night. It would also have been impossible to organise fixtures between any other winners and runners-up while also giving them a reasonable — and relatively similar — number of days since their final group stage fixture. In the game that did happen, co-hosts Canada...
The latest 2026 ODA projections reveal aid for health is further at risk
With official development assistance (ODA) by member countries of the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) projected to fall again in 2026, the health sector is facing deep cuts.
A’s Fall To Angels 4-1
Not a good day at the ballpark as the Athletics fell to the Angels 4-1 in Anaheim in the series opener. More to come…
3 Traps Health Systems Fall Into When Trying to Improve Their Culture
Cultivating a positive culture is a priority for hospital leaders, but many are making avoidable mistakes. Myra Gregorian, Seattle Children's chief people and transformation officer, outlined some of these common blunders — such as not involving frontline staff in decision making and assuming that simple communication methods are sufficient.
Jodi's Journal: The purple city prevails
No matter who emerges in this election, the purple city has prevailed. And I think that's a win.
AWS CEO says replacing young employees with AI is ‘one of the dumbest ideas’—and bad for business: ‘At some point the whole thing explodes on itself’
Amazon laid off 14,000 employees this fall, but CEO Andy Jassy denied the reductions were related to AI.
Bullseye! Enormous 'bow and arrow' galaxy is unlike anything radio astronomers have ever seen — Space photo of the week
Astronomers and citizen scientists have discovered RAD-BAARG, a radio galaxy with a striking bow-and-arrow shape, offering a rare direct view of a galaxy falling into the environment of a galaxy cluster.
Conor Sen: This demographic cliff is reshaping universities. Cities are next
An undergraduate enrollment shortfall at Syracuse University is the latest sign that long-forecast demographic pressures are taking their toll on large and well-known institutions, too. Syracuse laid blame on the
Spotlight falls on Ocado boss Tim Steiner’s £100m in payouts
Reports claim replacement being lined up for co-founder amid concern over high pay and company’s struggling share price
Don Lemon, DL Hughley bring 'Anything Goes' tour to Columbus this fall
Emmy Award-winning journalist Don Lemon and renowned comedian DL Hughley will visit Columbus as part of their extended tour this fall. The comedy-political commentary duo are set to perform at Mershon...
Scientists finally explain why these wild boars stay more radioactive than Chernobyl's wolves - Futura-Sciences
What explains this surprising finding? The answer appears to be a complex mix of history, ecology, and diet. Bavaria’s wild boars mainly feed on underground fungi that absorbed radioactive fallout from both the notorious Chernobyl disaster and Cold War-era nuclear testing. Unlike wolves, which sit higher on the food chain...
The sky is not falling. Americans are getting healthier.
Despite declining obesity and heart disease rates, increasing cancer survival rates, and a record high life expectancy, politicians from both parties are pushing costly and ineffective policies to …
What Apple Just Confirmed About the iPhone 18 Pro and Ultra
Apple has confirmed the foldable iPhone Ultra and iPhone 18 Pro for fall 2026. Explore the new A20 Pro chip, variable aperture cameras, and premium designs.
In Trump’s America, two very different views of Christianity in politics emerge
Adherence to organized religion is falling in the United States, but defenders of the religious right are ascendant in positions of power in the Trump administration.
Fallout from USMNT loss to Turkey and previewing the Mbappe-Haaland clash
On today’s show, we look back at the United States’ final group stage match against Turkey and evaluate their readiness for the Round of 32. Manchester City insider Sam Lee joins us to preview the tournament’s first true superstar heavyweight clash as Kylian Mbappe and France square off against Erling Haaland and Norway in a battle for Group I supremacy. Plus, The Athletic’s Jay Harris is back in the studio to break down the latest bracketology, advancement percentages, and qualification permutations for Groups G, H, and I using The Athletic’s World Cup Tracker.
Meloni and Trump: A very public Italy-US fallout that is proving very hard to fix
Italy's PM was not long ago being called the "Trump whisperer", but their relationship has gone from public attacks to personal insults.
Is the No Surprises Act working? Government watchdog is uncertain
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said it needs more data to determine what savings the 2020 law is bringing to the U.S. healthcare system—but early data indicate it falls short of expectations.
Consumer-Directed Health Care: Promise or Pitfall
This panel will examine the evidence and policy outlook for consumer-directed health care as a federal solution to expanded coverage, with a focus on affordability, access, and health outcomes.
Are You Falling Into These 5 AI Traps? Here's How Smart Leaders Avoid Them.
Artificial intelligence is making founders fall into the same leadership traps. Here's how to make sure you avoid them.
MacBook Ultra and new MacBook Pro both launching this fall, per rumors
Apple’s high-end MacBook plans are coming into focus after recent Bloomberg reports, including MacBook Ultra and a new M6 MacBook Pro.
PlayStation hardware sales fall to their lowest May total since 2000
Price rises hit Sony's console sales, but 007 First Light and Switch 2 help US game spending to grow 3%
Stillwater’s early start for school is big challenge for football, fall sports
Learn why Stillwater is starting early and how teams are trying to make adjustments.
Intel’s chip business shows signs of life after years of struggle
Not long ago, Intel was seen as Silicon Valley’s fallen icon. Now it is showing signs of a turnaround amid the AI boom.
New iPhone Ultra report has new pricing and release timing info
Apple’s highly anticipated foldable iPhone is launching this fall, but a new report today claims you might have to wait...
Corus Entertainment reports $36.5M Q3 loss, revenue down 26 per cent from year ago
TORONTO — Corus Entertainment Inc. reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of $36.5 million in its latest quarter as the company behind Global Television saw its revenue fall 16 per cent compared with a year ago.
Trump foe John Bolton is set to plead guilty. Here’s why the case didn’t fall apart
As several criminal investigations into President Donald Trump’s foes continue to flail, federal prosecutors are now ushering one of his biggest critics to a conviction.
Grand Theft Auto 6 demand may be so high it will "likely outstrip supply" this holiday season, a video game retailer warns
Speaking to The Game Business, a major senior games buyer has warned that stocks might not survive the spending frenzy this fall.
UK food and drink exports fall as US tariffs and Brexit trade friction bites
Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news
It's Xbox's turn (again), as console prices keep going up
Microsoft announced a price hike for the Xbox Series consoles today, the third in little over a year. Effective August 1, the Xbox Series S, which launched in 2020 for $300, will cost $500 in the U.S. The Xbox Series X, which launched in 2020 at $500, will go for $800. This follows a round of PlayStation 5 price increases from Sony this spring, and a slow-motion increase for Nintendo’s Switch 2, which will kick in in the U.S. in September. (Mind you, there were also eight video game industry price hikes in six months of 2025). The chart up top shows the sudden ascent of console prices over the past year, a sudden surge in an already unusual hardware generation. Prices had been flat for years, now “up” is the new “flat.” Game console prices used to go down across the length of a console generation, but not this time around. Microsoft’s explanation for the new price hike today: We hoped another price increase would not be necessary, and we have spent the last several months working with suppliers on options. Unfortunately, console storage and memory prices have increased by more than 2.5x and we expect another doubling by the fall of 2027. The entire consumer electronics industry is struggling with the current components crisis, but the effects are particularly hard on consoles. Unlike phones, computers, speakers, and other consumer devices, consoles are typically not sold at a profit, but instead for less than they cost to make. This is an issue well beyond game consoles. Apple announced price hikes on its computers and tablets today as well. Game File is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Subscribe Item 2: Brutal Bungie cuts Bungie laid off “most” of its Destiny development team and some developers who worked on Marathon, the newest game from the struggling Sony-owned studio. A WARN notice issued by Sony to Washington State, where Bungie is based, tallied cuts impacting 292 workers, effective next month. That’s strictly for Bungie/Sony jobs in Washington and wouldn’t account for any elsewhere. The video I clipped below shows the redacted list of Bungie cuts filed to Washington State officials. As you’ll see, I had to scroll for a while… In a note emailed to PlayStation workers and published online, PlayStation game studios chief Hermen Hulst offered the following explanation for these latest cuts at Bungie: This is painful news, especially for talented colleagues whose roles have been eliminated. This decision was made only after extensive discussion and careful consideration, and I want to provide some context on how we arrived here. Over the past several months, together with Bungie leadership, we reviewed the studio’s long-term direction, development priorities, resource needs, and role within our broader portfolio strategy. We explored multiple alternatives before concluding that a reduction was necessary to align the studio’s resources with its current priorities and long-term goals. In 2022, Sony bought Bungie for $3.7 billion. The studio’s marquee game, the multiplayer live service shooter Destiny 2 was losing popularity at the time. Its next game Marathon, released earlier this year, has been well-reviewed but had a slow start. Bungie is renowned for making great shooter games, and Destiny fans have mourned the wind-down of Destiny 2. They’ve also expressed bewilderment over reports that Destiny 3 is not, per Bloomberg, immediately in the cards.
UCLA comparative literature department to offer health humanities minor in fall
UCLA will offer a minor in health humanities starting this fall. The minor, housed under the comparative literature department, is an interdisciplinary program that examines how health and medicine are shaped by literature, culture, history and social experience, according to the department’s website.
Lionel Richie postpones concerts after falling ill during tour opener
Lionel Richie is pausing his return to the stage after abruptly falling ill during the opening of his new tour.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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Falls Church Business News & Notes 6-25-2026 - Falls Church News-Press Online
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