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Canada looks to deepen research and education links with the EU
Canada is looking for deeper research and education links with the EU, according to its prime minister, Mark Carney. His comments followed hard on the heels of an offer from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to give his nation associate membership of the EU, a status that currently has no legal status or definition. Both sides have yet to detail how this newfound political enthusiasm will translate into concrete action.Addressing the European Parliament on September 17, Carney cited both the Horizon Europe research and innovation programme and the Erasmus+ student mobility scheme as areas for future collaboration.Association with the next iteration of Horizon Europe “would allow us to pool resources, cooperate on frontier technology, leverage our world-class research institutes and universities,” he told MEPs. Canada joined the present programme in 2024, but only takes part in Pillar 2, which supports collaborative research projects. Carney also said that young people should be allowed to work, study and live where they want, on either side of the Atlantic. “Canadian membership of Erasmus+ would give your students and ours more opportunity to learn at some of the world’s top universities, to broaden their horizon and to build those lasting ties that will sustain our alliance,” he said.Limited exchanges with Canada are already possible, for example in the Erasmus Mundus strand of the scheme, which supports joint master’s programmes. This would be considerably increased if the country became a full associate member, a club currently limited to nations neighbouring the EU.Most favoured nation?As for the offer of associate membership of the EU, the aim would be to build “an alliance for the future to create a common prosperity and economic security base,” von der Leyen said during her state of the European Union address, also in the European Parliament in Strasbourg, on September 16.“We will work on intelligent manufacturing,” she went on. “We will create a tech alliance. We will integrate defence industrial bases. We will make the Arctic a flagship joint project. We will work on energy-critical minerals and batteries, on [artificial intelligence], quantum, cyber and economic security.”Mona Nemer, Canada’s chief science advisor, told Science|Business that the political speeches by Carney and Von der Leyen will open the door to even more scientific cooperation between Canada and the EU. She even attributed the broader political partnership to the scientific diplomacy of Horizon Europe association. “The science and research collaborations have predated this political rapprochement,” she said.While she is not part of the government decision-making process, Nemer thinks Carney’s speech in the European Parliament is more than “political posturing” and the Canadian government is likely to come up with more practical ideas for how to boost collaboration in the near future. “The prime minister mentioned Horizon [Europe] and Erasmus+, maybe there is something more concrete around this,” she said.She went on to suggest that Canada and Europe could also work more closely together on setting international standards for emerging technologies, AI safety, data sovereignty and joint research infrastructures, such as particle accelerators and marine research fleets.Nemer confirmed that science cooperation will be on the agenda at an upcoming EU-Canada summit in October. She met recently with EU ambassadors to Canada to "see where the possibilities are, to signal that there is interest."Room for expansionLike other countries outside Europe that are associated to Horizon Europe, such as South Korea, Australia or Japan, Canada is not allowed to host European Research Council (ERC) grantees. However, Canadian universities hint they would like re-open that discussion. “Canada’s participation in Horizon Europe, the world's largest research funding programme, has been a big success,” said Robert Asselin, the chief executive of U15 Canada, an umbrella body for some of the country’s biggest research universities, in a statement. “Ensuring swift re-association to the next research programme, will be vital to maintain this momentum. We would welcome efforts to explore further opportunities to collaborate with European partners, such as through the European Research Council,” he said. Related articlesHow a new multilateral defence bank could boost innovationEurope’s independence hinges on innovation, von der Leyen saysBut so far, there are no details from the Commission on how von der Leyen’s proposal would boost Canadian access to the ERC or other sensitive research calls in Horizon Europe. And it is unclear how other non-European associated countries, such as New Zealand or Australia, would react if Canada was given better access than them. The same questions may arise closer to home. “How would a new category of associate member of the EU differ from Norway’s participation in EU programmes through the European Economic Area?” asked Jan Palmowski, secretary general of the Guild of European Research-Intensive Universities. “And how does this proposal for Canada change discussion for the UK, Norway and Switzerland for the next Multiannual Financial Framework?”Another area for discussion is how far Canadian organisations can participate in sensitive projects. “I would expect some of the most crucial issues at hand to be whether Canada can participate more closely and predictably in calls that are deemed sensitive on research security or EU preference grounds, on critical technologies, for instance,” Palmowski said. Canada’s participation in other parts of Horizon Europe, as well as the European Competitiveness Fund, might also be discussed, he added.Whatever the details, closer cooperation between the EU and Canada represents a “substantial” opportunity, according to Mattias Björnmalm, secretary general of the Cesaer university group. “Scientific excellence depends on talented people being able to work together, exchange knowledge and access complementary expertise and infrastructure,” he said. “A closer EU-Canada partnership would strengthen these conditions and provide greater certainty for long-term collaboration.”
This popular fermented food may help flush nanoplastics from the body
A kimchi-derived bacterium can bind to nanoplastics under gut-like conditions and may help carry them out of the body. In mice, the probiotic more than doubled the amount of nanoplastics detected in feces, pointing to a surprising potential use for microbes from fermented foods.
3 bold predictions for Michigan Football vs UTEP
Michigan Football will enter Big Ten play 3-0 if it takes care of business against UTEP on Saturday. Here are our 3 bold predictions for this matchup:
NCAA Admits Replay Error Changed Michigan Game
The NCAA admitted replay protocols were not followed in Michigan's win over Western Michigan but says the result cannot be overturned.
Memphis People in Business for Sept. 17, 2026
A look at promotions, hirings, movers and newsmakers in the Memphis area business scene
Michael Healy-Rae: Irish politician 'will not be deterred' after assault in Dublin
Michael Healy-Rae has been released from hospital after receiving treatment for his injuries.
Booming Business: Atlanta Firm Creates Cleaner Way to Sop Up Oil Spills
After the Deepwater Horizon spill, o-founder and CEO Sudhir Sharma, a Georgia Tech Ph.D. and chemical engineer, started wrestling with how to actually clean up spilled oil instead of just moving the problem from the ocean to the landfill.
Benson, James offer differing plans on tariffs, data centers, health care at Detroit Economic Club
The two major party candidates for Michigan governor answered questions before the Detroit Economic Club Wednesday. As Russ McNamara reports, Republican John James and Democrat Jocelyn Benson had differing visions of governance.
Serenity Forge announces sci-fi visual novel and strategy card game Faraday Blues for PS5, Xbox Series, and PC
Serenity Forge has announced Faraday Blues, a science-fiction visual novel and strategy card game hybrid coming to PlayStation 5, Xbox Series, and PC via Steam and Microsoft Store in 2027.
Shape of Dreams now available for PS5, Xbox Series, and Switch 2 alongside ‘Starless Path’ update
Publisher NEOWIZ and developer Lizard Smoothie have released roguelite action video game Shape of Dreams for PlayStation 5, Xbox Series, Switch 2, and PC via Microsoft Store at a launch discount pr…
The Strange New Politics of AI. Plus. . .
It’s Thursday, September 17. This is The Front Page, your daily window into the world of The Free Press—and our take on the world at large. Today: Douglas Murray asks, why do we allow terrorists to die of old age? The American nonprofits backing Hamas. A conversation with Dara Horn and Coleman Hughes. And much more. But first: inside the unlikely coalition warning that AI may kill us all. Last week, an AI researcher named Jacob Coxon made headlines around the world after saying that he had resigned from Anthropic because he believes AI might cause human extinction—and his co-workers do, too. Unlike the rest of us, potentially, the story just won’t die. The Pro-Human Assembly, a conference held Tuesday in Washington, D.C., about the existential dangers of artificial intelligence, couldn’t have come at a better time—or with a more eclectic coalition. The Archbishop of San Francisco was there. So was Steve Bannon, screaming about the Chinese. Bernie Sanders did a quasi-dramatic reading of messages posted to an online forum by rogue AI agents. Ashley Judd paraphrased a graphic Andrea Dworkin quote for reasons that remain a mystery to me still. It was odd. People in the AI industry have talked openly about the possibility of this technology causing human extinction for years, but it hits differently in the wake of the Hugging Face incident. If you don’t know what that is, all the more reason to read my dispatch today. As the doomers see it, the best-case scenario is a future in which humans are basically kept as pets: well cared for, but with zero autonomy. The worst-case scenario, obviously, is the everyone dies thing. What should be done? I heard lots of ideas but no easy answers. There are currently zero federal regulations on AI, which is sort of strange even to think about. After all, we regulate microwaves, and the people running the microwave industry have never once refused to rule out the possibility that their products will end all human life on Earth. What I saw in D.C. left me even more convinced that you would be hard-pressed to find anyone who believes nothing should be done. You know, except for President Trump. — River Page River Page • Tech and Business [ The AI Doomers Have a Plan to Save Us. I Went to Find Out What It Is. ](https://www.thefp.com/p/the-ai-doomers-have-plan-save-bernie-sanders-bannon) Read story How Robert Kraft Made Macklemore a Martyr—and How to Better Fight Antisemitism On Monday, New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft and a group of other NFL owners banned Macklemore from performing at their stadiums after the rapper delivered a “Free Palestine” speech while opening for Ed Sheeran. Kraft cited the rapper’s “broader history of antisemitic rhetoric and imagery.” Once multiple venues refused to host shows with Macklemore on the lineup, the tour’s promoter officially dropped him. Today, Josh Kaplan says that the move was counterproductive, arguing that though well-intentioned, Kraft’s decision turned an irrelevant footnote into a martyr. “You cannot cancel people into liking you,” Josh writes. Read his column on what a better response to Macklemore would have looked like. Read [ Robert Kraft Made Macklemore a Martyr ](https://www.thefp.com/p/robert-kraft-made-macklemore-martyr-antisemitism-palestine) This raises the question: What actually works against antisemitism? On the latest episode of Conversations with Coleman, recorded in front of a live audience in New York, Dara Horn joins Coleman Hughes to talk about her new book The Final Solution to the Jewish Question. She argues that antisemitism is a script that has repeated itself across countries and ideologies, and that most people don’t understand that well enough to fight it. Don’t miss their conversation. Watch [ The Lie at the Center of Antisemitism, with Dara Horn ](https://www.thefp.com/p/the-lie-at-the-center-of-antisemitism-coleman-hughes-dana-horn) Listen now Douglas Murray • U.S. Politics [ Douglas Murray: The 9/11 Failure That Still Haunts America ](https://www.thefp.com/p/douglas-murray-911-failure-justice-terrorist-guantanamo-bay) Twenty-five years after the September 11 attacks, the men who planned them have still not faced trial. Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and most of the accused have been locked up in Guantanamo Bay since 2002. Judges have retired, and plea deals have collapsed. Today, Douglas Murray examines how this happened and argues that a justice system that allows terrorists to die of old age in an interminable pretrial process is one that has failed. Read his latest column on what that failure says about our unpreparedness for the era we are now living in. Read story The Editors • U.S. Politics [ When Nonprofits Support Terrorists ](https://www.thefp.com/p/when-nonprofits-support-terrorists) A newly declassified CIA brief from 1998 found that Osama bin Laden used nonprofit shell organizations—including U.S.-based Islamic groups—to fund his terror plots. Today, a similar story is unfolding as multiple organizations on American soil present themselves as nonprofits, taking advantage of tax-exempt status while seeking to advance the ideological mission of terrorist groups like Hamas. Read our editorial on the latest evidence of this dangerous trend—and why there’s no excuse for making the same mistake the CIA revealed 28 years ago. Read story Simon Sebag Montefiore and Bari Weiss Live in New York For decades, the Middle East has shaped American foreign policy and loomed large in the public consciousness. Few understand its influence on our politics better than Simon Sebag Montefiore, who argues that America’s quagmires in the Middle East stem from a deep misunderstanding of the region—on both the left and the right. Join him October 1 as he sits down with Bari Weiss live in New York City to kick off his U.S. book tour for The Cauldron: The Making of the Modern Middle East. Get Tickets Now MORE FROM THE FREE PRESS [ Sydney Sweeney’s Naked Truth ](https://www.thefp.com/p/sydney-sweeneys-naked-truth-caitlin-flanagan) Caitlin Flanagan Read story [ I Thought Ukraine Was Losing. Then I Was Almost Hit by a Russian Drone. ](https://www.thefp.com/p/elliot-ackerman-ukraine-drone-gas-station-train) Elliot Ackerman Read story [ The Dangerous Ideology Behind the AI Warnings ](https://www.thefp.com/p/dangerous-ideology-effective-altruism-artificial-intelligence) Shyam Sankar Read story [ Amanda Knox: Patrick Clancy Can’t Win ](https://www.thefp.com/p/amanda-knox-patrick-clancy-grief-internet-crime) Amanda Knox Read story THE NEWS The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point, its first hike since 2023, signaling that another increase could follow as the central bank tries to bring inflation under control. President Donald Trump fired back by demanding that rates be cut sharply, though he stopped short of criticizing Fed Chair Kevin Warsh by name. The Houthis fired drones and missiles at Saudi Arabia on Wednesday, including a major oil port on the Red Sea, and Saudi jets struck back with air strikes across Yemen in an escalating front of the Middle East war. (For more on the Houthis, read Zineb Riboua’s column from earlier this week.) A sweeping Russia and Iran sanctions bill passed the House in a 262–159 vote and is now heading to Trump for his signature. Named after the late senator Lindsey Graham, the legislation would hit countries that purchase large volumes of Russian oil and gas with tariffs of up to 100 percent, and is aimed at cutting off revenue that funds Russia’s war in Ukraine. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen proposed making Canada the European Union’s first-ever “associate member,” drawing a standing ovation from European lawmakers. The proposal, framed as a response to a world grown more hostile, faces an uncertain path as EU member states would have to approve it, and one diplomat said that “nobody really knows what it means.” The House voted unanimously to send billionaire Leon Black a criminal contempt referral after he defied a congressional subpoena to testify and hand over documents related to his connections to Jeffrey Epstein. Black chose to fight the subpoena in court rather than comply. Charlie Kirk’s family filed a wrongful death notice Wednesday against Utah Valley University, alleging that a series of security failures left him exposed to a rooftop sniper. The notice is a required legal step before the family can sue. Merriam-Webster added 1,400 words and definitions to its dictionary, including looksmaxxing, vibe coding, and cuffing season. The publisher said the new entries offer “a window into the world today.” The Free Press earns a commission from any purchases made through all book links in this article.
Attacks Against Judges Are an Attack Against America’s Constitution
“Threats against judges and their families remain at deeply troubling levels,” warn Paul R. Michel and Robert J. Cindrich.
Poll finds close Michigan Senate race. Here’s how El-Sayed lags his party.
A Post-Schar School finds 53 percent of Michigan’s likely voters say they want Democrats to control the Senate, but 48 percent support Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in the Senate race.
Europe's low gas stocks pile on the economic and political pressure
Europe's delay in restocking natural gas storage reserves, combined with near-record prices for diesel and other refined oil products, has added to the pressures on governments as they try to contain public discontent and the rise of the far-right.
I Spent 9/11 With Abdul El-Sayed on the Trail in Michigan. What I Saw Shows What’s at Stake.
“The thing that they’re attacking isn’t really me.”
New bill would compensate returned political hostages like Paul Whelan
A bill by Rep. Haley Stevens would provide compensation to wrongful detainees such as Michigan's Paul Whelan, who was held by Russia for over five years
‘Very messy eaters’: scientists solve the mystery of when black holes ‘burp’
The astronomical bodies fire off powerful jets in two distinct phases in their feeding cycle, researchers discover
Probiotics are wildly popular. But there’s a better way to help your gut.
Fiber-rich plants — not supplements — are the best fuel for your gut microbiome.
Klopp reveals Kimmich's role in new-look Germany team
Having played as a right-back for Germany under Julian Nagelsmann, captain Joshua Kimmich will return to his familiar central midfield role under new head coach Jürgen Klopp.Klopp confirmed this on T...
Wisconsin vs Eastern Michigan Prediction: Who Are the Real Badgers?
Wisconsin still hasn't shown any identity yet. Will the Eastern Michigan game show what the team might be? Here's the CFN preview and prediction.
Xbox Tokyo Game Show Sale kicks off with big discounts on 700+ titles
This year's Xbox Tokyo Game Show Sale is now up and running on the Microsoft Store, offering hefty discounts across some big-name games, DLC packs, and more.
Microsoft shares workaround for Windows domain login issues
Microsoft shared a temporary fix on Wednesday for a known issue that prevents Windows 11 users from logging in with valid domain credentials after installing the September 2026 security updates.
The Rise Of The Mompreneur Micro-Business: Monetizing Home-Grown Expertise
See how moms turn parenting and career skills into a mompreneur micro-business, with earning ranges and simple steps to start without quitting your job.
'We can't just throw everything at Carrick'
"We have to be careful to not go too over the top with this result," said former Premier League midfielder Jobi McAnuff after Manchester United threw away a two-goal lead against Brighton in the Carabao Cup third round. A section of United fans made their feelings clear with boos at full-time, with Michael Carrick's team having taken just two wins from six games in all competitions this season. "Michael Carrick is incredibly experienced," McAnuff told BBC Radio 5 Live's Football Daily.
NSF and UKRI Invest More Than $10 Million in Quantum Chemistry Research
NSF and UKRI are investing more than $10 million across eight projects studying quantum information science in chemical systems.
Monash and Weill Cornell Medicine join forces to drive global health research innovation
Monash University is proud to collaborate with Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University’s academic medical institution, to tackle new research projects including mental health, health economics, trauma and burns care, as Monash expands its research and innovation presence in the United States.
Bank of England expected to slow bond-buying programme and hold interest rates today
Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news
Trump bashes Democrats on crime while campaigning for Michael Whatley in North Carolina
Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chairman, is facing former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper in a critical race that will help decide which party controls the Senate.
Is Japan’s Okinawa finally moving on from anti-base politics?
Frustrated by economic hardship, Okinawans have rallied behind a new governor, leaving long-standing anti-base resistance in disarray.
Trump emphasizes crime in midterm push in North Carolina
The president made violent crime the central issue in his first large-scale outdoor rally this year and cites the GOP’s 1988 “Willie Horton” attack ad on Democratic nominee Michael S. Dukakis.
CHAMPIONS! Inter Miami win 2026 Campeones Cup over Cruz Azul
By Justin RudermanFor a fourth consecutive season, Inter Miami CF have bagged a new piece of silverware courtesy of a 2-0 victory in the 2026 Michelob ULTRA Campeones Cup over LIGA MX titans Cruz Azul...
GCEDC officials report agency’s impact upon housing, tax base, business growth
BATAVIA — The Medtech Landing apartment complex across from Genesee Community College is a “perfect example” of the Genesee County Economic Development Center’s effort in addressing the area’s market rate
Researchers to develop microsensor for potentially dangerous gas emissions
Professor Mohammad Younis to lead National Science Foundation project that could detect problems with lithium-ion batteries.
Training tomorrow’s citizen scientists in introductory science courses
Faculty who teach large introductory STEM courses often experience burnout, writes Michael Evans. Thinking of yourself as a trainer of citizen scientists and seeing your field in the world around you can help keep teaching fresh
Business Development Board of the Palm Beaches touts economic advancements
The Business Development Board of the Palm Beaches announced strides it’s made in economic development and diversification in the community.
Carrick accepts blame for Manchester United's League Cup exit
Michael Carrick took responsibility for Manchester United's embarrassing League Cup collapse to Brighton and demanded a reaction after his side were booed off the pitch at Old Trafford. An evening that began with teenager Shea Lacey marking his first senior start with a dream goal and Mason Mount adding a second in the 10th minute ended in furious fans unloading at full-time.
DBEDT brings business resources to entrepreneurs statewide
The Hawai‘i Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism will participate in the Innovate Maui Nui Conference on Maui on Sept. 23.
UNLV Awarded $6M from National Science Foundation to Accelerate Pace of Innovation
UNLV among select group of universities with high research output identified for potential to “unleash innovation” and create economic impact.
Puget Sound Leaders Launch New Economic Partnership
Led by nonprofit Challenge Seattle, the partnership aims to strengthen the region’s ability to retain employers, attract investment, and create jobs.
Entertainment district next to Neyland Stadium officially named “865 Neyland”
Project is fully privately funded and projected to have $5 billion economic impact over 30 years
Entertainment district next to Neyland Stadium named “865 Neyland”
Project is fully privately funded and projected to have $5 billion economic impact over 30 years
Scientists Grew Human Brain Tissue Inside Mice and It Actually Worked
The transplanted cells formed circuits, reached the spinal cord and responded to injury.
Takeaways from Michigan women’s basketball’s finalized Big Ten schedule
In conjunction with the Big Ten Conference, the full Michigan Women’s Basketball Big Ten schedule has been announced. Here is the Wolverines’ conference schedule and some takeaways:
Benson, James discuss tariffs, taxes and business growth at Detroit Economic Club town hall
The Fed hiked rates. Here's what economic experts say could come next.
The Fed raised rates for the first time in three years, and smart voices in finance are weighing in on whether more hikes are coming.
Expert available: Interest rate hike impact and rural business
Eric Mikolai, lending program manager for the nation’s third largest SBDC network, NorCal SBDC, is available to discuss today’s interest rate hike and its impact on small businesses in rural economies, including borrowing costs, cash flow, business expansion, and access to capital. Mikolai specializes in small business lending and capital strategy. He can speak to the broader economic implications on hiring, commercial real estate, business acquisitions, and long-term economic growt
Michael Carrick takes the blame for ‘unacceptable’ Man United loss
United blew a 2-0 lead at Old Trafford for the first time since 1976 as Brighton fought back to knock them out of the Carabao Cup and compound their disastrous start to the season
Hennepin County ends Operation Metro Surge business relief fund amid fraud concerns
Jeffrey Lunde, a Hennepin County commissioner, explains why the Small Business Recovery Fund was shut down after fraudulent applications.
Iowa universities propose new programs for academic and workforce demand
Iowa's public universities received initial approval for new academic programs and centers from the Iowa Board of Regents Wednesday.
Michigan State basketball’s Big Ten schedule is set
The Spartans face the Wolverines twice late in conference play.
Benson, James pitch tariff remedies, business boosts & data center limits at Detroit Economic Club
DETROIT — The respective Republican and Democratic nominees for Michigan governor on Wednesday each proposed new solutions to the economic tariffs levied by the administration of President Donald Trump, especially those being used against Canada. Addressing the Detroit Economic Club on Wednesday afternoon in separate speaking events were Republican U.S. Rep. John James and Democrat […]
Instant reactions to Michigan Basketball’s 2026-27 Big Ten schedule
Michigan Basketball’s 2026-27 Big Ten conference schedule has officially been revealed:
You like Ike. But AI will help campaigns figure how to ensure you actually vote
Strategists predict the powerful new technology will bring seismic shifts in U.S. political life.
Virginia DEQ fines Microsoft $2.5M over Leesburg data center
Virignia DEQ issued about $2.5 million in penalties to Microsoft after its Leesburg data center exceeded permitted fuel and emissions limits.
Bethel University launches School of Business with 12 degree programs
Bethel University is launching a School of Business, bringing together every business degree program the university offers under one academic unit.
Microserve Ranks No. 4 Among B.C.'s Top Grossing Science and Technology Companies
Microserve is proud to be ranked No. 4 among British Columbia's top revenue producing science and technology companies in BCBusiness magazine's 2026 Top 100 rankings.
Windows 11 KB5124008 update breaks domain trust for some users
Microsoft is investigating reports that the Windows 11 KB5124008 security update is breaking domain trust relationships on some enterprise systems, preventing users from logging in with valid domain credentials.
Your Entertainment Escape Ep. 27 | Funko Comic-Con Special – YourCentralValley.com
The latest videos from YourCentralValley.com | CBS47 and KSEE24
What Does the Science of Climate Change Really Look Like?
Editor’s Note: This is the second in a three-part series on how the Right should think about environmental and climate policy. Read Chris Barnard on Reclaiming Environmental Policy from the Left. More than a decade ago, the world’s governments negotiated and signed the Paris Climate Agreement, committing to hold global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius. In the following years, climate had immense cultural power. Greta Thunberg emerged. Fortune 500 companies established net-zero plans. The U.S. got the Inflation Reduction Act. Then the pendulum swung back. President Donald Trump returned to the Oval Office, speaking of green energy as a “scam” and carbon footprints as a “hoax” and on all matters of international policy emphasizing bilateral engagement and power over globalism and cooperation. The technology companies that had been at the forefront of net-zero pledges and green leadership discovered the importance of all-of-the-above power to their visions for artificial intelligence and began quietly postponing or removing their targets. On the left side of the political spectrum, rising concerns about inflation and cost pushed climate lower down in the stated priorities of voters and stump speeches of politicians. The moment is ripe for a reset on the politics of climate change and for conservatives especially to chart a course that acknowledges and addresses the real challenges in plausible ways. So what should we think about climate change as we enter a post-peak climate era? If it is neither an apocalypse nor a hoax, what will hold up as a durable view of climate change? And how does it project onto the concerns and priorities of the right-of-center’s emerging coalition? New to Commonplace_? Subscribe below to get the magazine in your inbox._ Subscribe A Solid Foundation As the politics and economics of climate careened over the past ten years, the physics carried on regardless. In 2015, the year the Paris Climate Agreement was adopted, the world emitted 41.2 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide. By 2025, emissions had risen only 2.4%, to 42.2 gigatonnes, because falling emissions from land use offset increasing emissions from fossil fuels. But slow growth in annual emissions is not rapid decline, let alone net-zero, so carbon dioxide kept accumulating in the atmosphere, going from 399 to 426 parts per million. Global temperature kept rising too, from about 1.1 degrees Celsius above the 1850–1900 average in 2015, to 1.4 degrees above it in 2025. None of this should surprise anyone. Even most prominent skeptics, like the authors of the 2025 report commissioned by the Trump administration’s Department of Energy, accept the basic physics. Carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere at industrial volumes accumulates and traps heat that would otherwise escape to space. That heat warms the upper ocean and increases temperatures at the surface. Increased ocean heat and melting of land ice cause sea levels to rise. Changes in the climate become noticeable to us as subtle shifts in temperature and precipitation, seasons arriving early or late, changes in the surrounding ecosystem, and weather extremes. The much more meaningful debate is not about whether these things are happening, but about what it all means for human societies. (While it is a proxy measure of overall risk, no one experiences global surface temperature.) This debate invokes at least three interesting questions: how much today’s warming is showing up in regional climate trends, how much more warming we should anticipate, and how extreme weather events can be understood in the context of climate change. Recent scientific advances give us new insights into each of these, but there is still much to learn. This is the context in which the next generation of conservative leaders will be the first to deal with significant climate change as a fact, not a forecast. It will be with them for their entire careers. Our evolving scientific picture of climate change will come from weather and climate records stretching further into the past, new kinds of observations in the present, better modeling tools for the future, and simply more time to observe the emergence of climate signals and their tangible effects on ecosystems and communities in the United States and around the world. The policy landscape will be shaped by not only the impacts of changes in the climate, but also by the ways in which societies respond and by the emergence of new technologies for both altering the trajectory of emissions and adapting to new climate realities. Global climate records now show the fingerprints of warming in different phenomena around much of the world. The IPCC, in its most recent assessment report, documents warming trends over all land regions, even as natural variability adds substantial variance to local trends. And the highest temperature extremes have become more intense and frequent, almost everywhere, since the 1950s. Scientists are highly confident that these changes are attributable to human influence. But confidence in detecting trends and attributing them to human influence degrades across heavy precipitation events; drought trends are heterogeneous and not attributable to human activity with great confidence. For hurricanes, tornadoes, and other severe storms there is even less confidence in trends or their relationship to climate change. In general, a fair summary of the evidence is that for well-observed phenomena, like surface temperature or heavy rainfall, with a clear relationship to warming, our multidecadal observations are consistent with human influence overcoming natural variability over long time periods and extremes increasing. For regions that are sampled more sparsely, or phenomena with a higher noise-to-signal ratio, we will need to observe them longer to understand the magnitude of the climate signal or improve dynamical understanding using models and observations together. But for Climate For those who can’t wait, we also have new techniques that attempt to understand the role climate change has in influencing particular extreme events. When the climate is changing and disaster strikes, it is natural to ask whether that disaster was somehow “caused” by climate change. For scientists and policymakers acting in good faith, answering that question helps develop a more accurate picture of the problem, how it may be getting worse, and what preparations we should be making to respond to it. It may, at some point, give some weight to how liability is assigned by courts or adaptation funding is distributed by society. But how we ask this question is extremely important. It is easy to get the analysis wrong by discounting the role that meteorology plays. As meteorologist Theodore Shepherd explained in a clear 2016 review of climate attribution methods, “if a weather or climate event is truly extreme in the present climate, then perforce it requires unusual meteorological conditions, which means that climate change is at most a contributing factor.” Share Scientists have two ways to probe climate as a contributing factor, both of which have entered media coverage of extreme weather events. One asks a probabilistic question: How much more likely is a particular event (e.g., a temperature record over a particular area) amid global warming? The answer involves using historical records and computer simulations to estimate the likelihood of such an event in both a changed and a preindustrial climate. The findings are less about the specific event, and more about events of that nature. The other question is: How has the changed climate affected the specific event in question? Here, scientists try to understand what a similar event would have looked like in the preindustrial climate. This is sometimes called the storyline approach, where the story is the specific meteorological details of the event. These methods offer ways to test the intuition of scientists about real weather extremes. In late June and early July of 2021, a persistent high-pressure ridge, or heat dome, set up over the Pacific Northwest and an extraordinary heat wave affected the area from Oregon to British Columbia. For six days, it shattered temperature records across the region and hundreds died from heat-related causes, in an area where such high, and persistently high, temperatures were well outside of experience and many live without air conditioning. Scientists have studied its connection to climate change using multiple approaches. This specific event was created by a rare combination of meteorological factors, a strong high-pressure ridge created the conditions for extreme heat, which occurred on top of higher average temperatures in the region from global warming. Probabilistic analyses showed that climate change increased the likelihood of such an event by at least 8-fold to more than 100-fold. One standout example found that such an event had effectively zero probability of occurring in the preindustrial climate. The enormous range in these assessments reflects how hard it is to estimate probabilities of events at the tail of the historical record. Estimates of the effect on the temperature of the event are more clustered. A recent review paper documents how multiple methodologies have found a positive influence, roughly 1-2 degrees Celsius of an anomaly that exceeded 15 degrees, of climate change on the temperature magnitude of the event. Multiple studies have investigated and found some positive influence of climate change in other extreme events. Attribution studies found climate likely increased the heavy rainfall that accompanied Hurricane Helene in North Carolina and surrounding regions in 2024. The extensive fires that struck Los Angeles in 2025 illustrate how the causal chain can become messy, though. Studies do detect a positive influence of climate on the event’s likelihood, but while climate change likely contributed to underlying aridity, it would not have played a role in the heavy winds or land practices that preceded disaster. These event attribution studies will become more common for extreme, or damaging, weather events. They can be produced quickly, and often are reported before peer review. As the Pacific Northwest heatwave example shows, when multiple methods converge on a positive attribution, the finding should probably carry some weight even if you have to be careful about accepting the results from a single study. I expect that as climate change proceeds and the climate thus departs further from a preindustrial counterfactual, the influence will become more detectable across a variety of extreme events and more easily identified. This will be used to cast blame, but can also be used to inform how communities and society adapt to ongoing change. We May Still Be Surprised One positive development, insofar as less climate change is better, has been that our central estimates for future climate change should probably be revised downward. Mostly, that is because the high-end warmings that scientists regularly analyzed about ten to 20 years ago, driven by high emissions throughout the twenty-first century, now appear to be somewhere between unlikely and impossible. At one time, the upper end of mainstream climate projections extended well into 4 to 6 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of this century, which, models suggest, would have wrought enormous real-world damage. Current energy and policy trends now point toward 2.5 or 3 degrees. Damages and risks are commonly modeled as increasing steeply with more warming, so this is already a better-than-previously-expected outcome for the climate (which is independent of the physical response to emissions). But we should maintain a wide range for plausible outcomes and prepare for the possibility of being surprised. Emissions trajectories are subject to deep uncertainty, the physical climate response is still developing, and whatever change occurs in the climate will then be mediated through unpredictable economic, social, and political institutions. Over the past decade, the pace of warming surprised some keen observers and appeared to accelerate, though not yet outside the range of expectation provided by climate models. The reasons for that apparent acceleration are being actively studied (as was the apparent pause in warming from 1998 to 2012), but no single driver has emerged. Some blame it on the El Niño, variability which would have no bearing on climate. Some think it is a result of factories in East Asia and global shipping fleets cutting aerosol emissions, which in the strongest version of the argument would indicate higher climate sensitivity to carbon-dioxide emissions. Others are more measured, not yet ready to draw solid conclusions as to whether climate projections require revision. We will have to see. Long-Term Thinking Climate change asks us to think over long time scales. But the pace of human-driven warming is compressing a large global change into a century. Changing weather patterns and extreme events are already causing adjustment costs and damages and will do more. Adaptation will help, but it is not free. For some communities, these costs will erode livelihoods and well-being, and may force migration. Are we prepared for large-scale managed retreats in the United States? Thankfully, American wealth, geographical diversity, and moderate climates may leave us better prepared than many around the world. But wealthy countries can still suffer serious disruption from narrowly concentrated costs, even if they appear entirely manageable in aggregate. Readers of Commonplace are familiar with the challenges of rapidly adapting to economic forces. The displacement that came from the China Shock is barely perceptible in aggregate GDP and employment data, but it affected millions of people and those people were far less mobile than economic models tended to assume. Deindustrialization rippled through the nation with enormous effects for not only our economic vitality, but also our national security. The forces surrounding climate change may not be so different; the world gets richer and must accept some diffuse costs. Those may be modest overall, but cause all manner of unpredictable effects with which policymakers must cope. In the case of the China Shock, our faith in a growing pie served us poorly. We’ll need to do better on climate. Leave a comment
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