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Lena Dunham welcomes her first baby via surrogacy
(CNN) — Actress and writer Lena Dunham and her husband Luis Felber have welcomed a baby daughter via surrogate.Writing in an op-ed published by Vogue on Wednesday, Dunham, 40, who is best known as the creator of hit TV series “Girls,” revealed that the couple’s first child had arrived 13 days late, before describing the moment of her birth.“I was so focused on our surrogate — in awe at her concentration, her period of quiet followed by what sounded like a roar — I forgot to look down until I heard our baby’s cry,” she wrote.“I saw her face, gasping just as she did. Her eyes, wide and unfocused, taking in the light and shadow, blinking rapidly.”Dunham said she was “bashful and dizzy with joy.”In 2018, Dunham revealed that she’d had a hysterectomy in an attempt to end the pain caused by endometriosis.Endometriosis is a common and often painful condition that happens when tissue similar to the lining of the uterus grows outside the uterus itself. It’s estimated to affect more than 11% of women between the ages of 15 and 44 across the United States.The surgery removed her cervix and uterus, meaning that she was unable to conceive naturally.On meeting her surrogate, Dunham wrote in the Vogue piece: “While I’ve been known to make friends quickly — airport terminals, veterinary offices — this was the quickest leap from first coffee to gynecological procedure I’d ever done.”Dunham said in the months before the embryo transfer date, as she “got to know our surrogate and to trust her,” she thought she would feel “jealousy” towards her, but she did not.“Instead, I felt a different kind of jealousy — toward said baby, for the chance to be tucked into someone who radiated such safety. I could just tell she knew how to steer an SUV in the snow,” Dunham added.The pregnancy came after “12 years circling the fertility drain,” Dunham wrote, and revealed how she dealt with the nerves of the intervening months.“Powerless and unable to feel the physical changes that signal a growing fetus, I horrified friends and family who adhere to the Jewish superstition prohibiting anticipatory purchases, and I started shopping,” said Dunham, before recounting her journey into the world of baby fashion.“I was looking for garments that allowed her personality to develop and express itself rather than announcing an identity she didn’t yet have,” she said.“She would be a person that we helped to dress, who made an impression on the world based on our choices, until she was old enough to do it herself.”The-CNN-Wire™ & © 2026 Cable News Network, Inc., a Warner Bros. Discovery Company. All rights reserved.THE-CNN-WIRE (TM) & © 2026 CABLE NEWS NETWORK, INC., A TIME WARNER COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
The Strange New Politics of AI. Plus. . .
It’s Thursday, September 17. This is The Front Page, your daily window into the world of The Free Press—and our take on the world at large. Today: Douglas Murray asks, why do we allow terrorists to die of old age? The American nonprofits backing Hamas. A conversation with Dara Horn and Coleman Hughes. And much more. But first: inside the unlikely coalition warning that AI may kill us all. Last week, an AI researcher named Jacob Coxon made headlines around the world after saying that he had resigned from Anthropic because he believes AI might cause human extinction—and his co-workers do, too. Unlike the rest of us, potentially, the story just won’t die. The Pro-Human Assembly, a conference held Tuesday in Washington, D.C., about the existential dangers of artificial intelligence, couldn’t have come at a better time—or with a more eclectic coalition. The Archbishop of San Francisco was there. So was Steve Bannon, screaming about the Chinese. Bernie Sanders did a quasi-dramatic reading of messages posted to an online forum by rogue AI agents. Ashley Judd paraphrased a graphic Andrea Dworkin quote for reasons that remain a mystery to me still. It was odd. People in the AI industry have talked openly about the possibility of this technology causing human extinction for years, but it hits differently in the wake of the Hugging Face incident. If you don’t know what that is, all the more reason to read my dispatch today. As the doomers see it, the best-case scenario is a future in which humans are basically kept as pets: well cared for, but with zero autonomy. The worst-case scenario, obviously, is the everyone dies thing. What should be done? I heard lots of ideas but no easy answers. There are currently zero federal regulations on AI, which is sort of strange even to think about. After all, we regulate microwaves, and the people running the microwave industry have never once refused to rule out the possibility that their products will end all human life on Earth. What I saw in D.C. left me even more convinced that you would be hard-pressed to find anyone who believes nothing should be done. You know, except for President Trump. — River Page River Page • Tech and Business [ The AI Doomers Have a Plan to Save Us. I Went to Find Out What It Is. ](https://www.thefp.com/p/the-ai-doomers-have-plan-save-bernie-sanders-bannon) Read story How Robert Kraft Made Macklemore a Martyr—and How to Better Fight Antisemitism On Monday, New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft and a group of other NFL owners banned Macklemore from performing at their stadiums after the rapper delivered a “Free Palestine” speech while opening for Ed Sheeran. Kraft cited the rapper’s “broader history of antisemitic rhetoric and imagery.” Once multiple venues refused to host shows with Macklemore on the lineup, the tour’s promoter officially dropped him. Today, Josh Kaplan says that the move was counterproductive, arguing that though well-intentioned, Kraft’s decision turned an irrelevant footnote into a martyr. “You cannot cancel people into liking you,” Josh writes. Read his column on what a better response to Macklemore would have looked like. Read [ Robert Kraft Made Macklemore a Martyr ](https://www.thefp.com/p/robert-kraft-made-macklemore-martyr-antisemitism-palestine) This raises the question: What actually works against antisemitism? On the latest episode of Conversations with Coleman, recorded in front of a live audience in New York, Dara Horn joins Coleman Hughes to talk about her new book The Final Solution to the Jewish Question. She argues that antisemitism is a script that has repeated itself across countries and ideologies, and that most people don’t understand that well enough to fight it. Don’t miss their conversation. Watch [ The Lie at the Center of Antisemitism, with Dara Horn ](https://www.thefp.com/p/the-lie-at-the-center-of-antisemitism-coleman-hughes-dana-horn) Listen now Douglas Murray • U.S. Politics [ Douglas Murray: The 9/11 Failure That Still Haunts America ](https://www.thefp.com/p/douglas-murray-911-failure-justice-terrorist-guantanamo-bay) Twenty-five years after the September 11 attacks, the men who planned them have still not faced trial. Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and most of the accused have been locked up in Guantanamo Bay since 2002. Judges have retired, and plea deals have collapsed. Today, Douglas Murray examines how this happened and argues that a justice system that allows terrorists to die of old age in an interminable pretrial process is one that has failed. Read his latest column on what that failure says about our unpreparedness for the era we are now living in. Read story The Editors • U.S. Politics [ When Nonprofits Support Terrorists ](https://www.thefp.com/p/when-nonprofits-support-terrorists) A newly declassified CIA brief from 1998 found that Osama bin Laden used nonprofit shell organizations—including U.S.-based Islamic groups—to fund his terror plots. Today, a similar story is unfolding as multiple organizations on American soil present themselves as nonprofits, taking advantage of tax-exempt status while seeking to advance the ideological mission of terrorist groups like Hamas. Read our editorial on the latest evidence of this dangerous trend—and why there’s no excuse for making the same mistake the CIA revealed 28 years ago. Read story Simon Sebag Montefiore and Bari Weiss Live in New York For decades, the Middle East has shaped American foreign policy and loomed large in the public consciousness. Few understand its influence on our politics better than Simon Sebag Montefiore, who argues that America’s quagmires in the Middle East stem from a deep misunderstanding of the region—on both the left and the right. Join him October 1 as he sits down with Bari Weiss live in New York City to kick off his U.S. book tour for The Cauldron: The Making of the Modern Middle East. Get Tickets Now MORE FROM THE FREE PRESS [ Sydney Sweeney’s Naked Truth ](https://www.thefp.com/p/sydney-sweeneys-naked-truth-caitlin-flanagan) Caitlin Flanagan Read story [ I Thought Ukraine Was Losing. Then I Was Almost Hit by a Russian Drone. ](https://www.thefp.com/p/elliot-ackerman-ukraine-drone-gas-station-train) Elliot Ackerman Read story [ The Dangerous Ideology Behind the AI Warnings ](https://www.thefp.com/p/dangerous-ideology-effective-altruism-artificial-intelligence) Shyam Sankar Read story [ Amanda Knox: Patrick Clancy Can’t Win ](https://www.thefp.com/p/amanda-knox-patrick-clancy-grief-internet-crime) Amanda Knox Read story THE NEWS The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point, its first hike since 2023, signaling that another increase could follow as the central bank tries to bring inflation under control. President Donald Trump fired back by demanding that rates be cut sharply, though he stopped short of criticizing Fed Chair Kevin Warsh by name. The Houthis fired drones and missiles at Saudi Arabia on Wednesday, including a major oil port on the Red Sea, and Saudi jets struck back with air strikes across Yemen in an escalating front of the Middle East war. (For more on the Houthis, read Zineb Riboua’s column from earlier this week.) A sweeping Russia and Iran sanctions bill passed the House in a 262–159 vote and is now heading to Trump for his signature. Named after the late senator Lindsey Graham, the legislation would hit countries that purchase large volumes of Russian oil and gas with tariffs of up to 100 percent, and is aimed at cutting off revenue that funds Russia’s war in Ukraine. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen proposed making Canada the European Union’s first-ever “associate member,” drawing a standing ovation from European lawmakers. The proposal, framed as a response to a world grown more hostile, faces an uncertain path as EU member states would have to approve it, and one diplomat said that “nobody really knows what it means.” The House voted unanimously to send billionaire Leon Black a criminal contempt referral after he defied a congressional subpoena to testify and hand over documents related to his connections to Jeffrey Epstein. Black chose to fight the subpoena in court rather than comply. Charlie Kirk’s family filed a wrongful death notice Wednesday against Utah Valley University, alleging that a series of security failures left him exposed to a rooftop sniper. The notice is a required legal step before the family can sue. Merriam-Webster added 1,400 words and definitions to its dictionary, including looksmaxxing, vibe coding, and cuffing season. The publisher said the new entries offer “a window into the world today.” The Free Press earns a commission from any purchases made through all book links in this article.
New platform launched to help stroke survivors and families “understand the science shaping stroke care”
The European Stroke Organisation (ESO)—in partnership with the Survivors Honouring Inclusion, Networking and Empowerment (SHINE) Global Stroke Collaboration—today announced the launch of Stroke Insights, a new online platform designed to translate complex stroke science into clear, trusted and practical information, ensuring stroke survivors and their families can navigate the latest medical research in a more […]
Big questions - and key logistical details - loom ahead of China-U.S. summit
Despite the lingering questions, China remains optimistic about the summit.
Whatley campaign event featured sex offender + Ruling allows weaker NC governor
A panel of the Court of Appeals ruled 2-1 against Stein.
Monaco CEO confirms plan to sell Folarin Balogun in January
AS Monaco’s CEO Thiago Scuro has confirmed that the club’s plan is to sell Folarin Balogun (25) during the January transfer window, which would allow Lamine Camara and Aleksandr Golovin, both heav...
Microsoft shares workaround for Windows domain login issues
Microsoft shared a temporary fix on Wednesday for a known issue that prevents Windows 11 users from logging in with valid domain credentials after installing the September 2026 security updates.
Dollywood’s billionaire owners plot future without Dolly Parton
Since it opened in 1986, Dollywood has been both monument to Dolly Parton and a bustling venue where visitors can wander through a replica of the two-room log cabin where
Business News: FHH Teams With GIA's School Of Gemology And Jewelry Arts
The Swiss watch industry-backed foundation's collaboration with the mighty GIA will bring improved learning, training, and certification to a wider audience.
Engineers Gate Manager LP Has $1.71 Million Stock Position in PENN Entertainment, Inc. $PENN
Engineers Gate Manager LP lowered its stake in PENN Entertainment, Inc. (NASDAQ:PENN - Free Report) by 89.2% during the second quarter, according to its most recent Form 13F filing with the SEC. The firm owned 80,231 shares of the company's stock after selling 661,024 shares during the period. Engi
MJ Companies expands Phoenix benefits team with ThreeFlow veteran
The hire brings placement technology experience to MJ's consulting capabilities as employer demand for advisory grows
Monash and Weill Cornell Medicine join forces to drive global health research innovation
Monash University is proud to collaborate with Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University’s academic medical institution, to tackle new research projects including mental health, health economics, trauma and burns care, as Monash expands its research and innovation presence in the United States.
Scientists push for fungi protection
A global movement to recognise fungi is gaining momentum ahead of UN biodiversity talks at COP17.
Bosnia’s Elections Offer New Technologies, But Old Politics
Frustration with populist, self-centred politicians – and the advent of new election technologies – is bringing an unusual dose of uncertainty to October’s nationwide vote.
The MIND Diet for Brain Health: A Neurologist on What Foods to Put on Your Plate
Dr. Gil Carvalho breaks down what the research shows about diet, supplements, and brain health.
Carbondale Area Science and Technology Club hosts STEM Night for elementary students
Members of the Carbondale Area High School Science and Technology Club hosted a “Blast Off to Summer” STEM Night for Carbondale Area Elementary students toward the end of the 2025-26 school year. Throughout the evening, students explored ex…
State of Higher Education Breakfast Forum: The Importance of Partnerships
Join The Business Press for the 2026 State of Higher Education Forum, where local college and university leaders will join business and community leaders to dis
Military blast exposure associated with long-term health conditions
Exposure to high-level blasts from incoming explosive devices or land mines among military veterans is associated with an increased risk of several conditions such as seizures, neuropathy and stroke years later, according to a study published September 16, 2026, in Neurology, the medical journal of the American Academy of Neurology.
BACK IN BUSINESS: Escanaba’s Ludington Street Finally Re-Opens
CLICK BELOW TO HEAR COMMENTS FROM ESCANABA MAYOR MARK AMMEL Ludington Street, Escanaba's main business thoroug...
Logan Henderson celebrated the clinch responsibly with a start looming
Logan Henderson enjoyed celebrating the Brewers' Central Division clinch, but not too much as he had to prepare for Wednesday's start vs. the Pirates.
UnityPoint Health-Trinity heart experts first in the Quad Cities to new AFib technology
UnityPoint Health – Trinity Heart Center has become the first health system in the Quad Cities to use a new FDA-approved technology to treat patients with atrial fibrillation (AFib), the most common t...
Jakobi Meyers dealing with thumb injury
Jacksonville Jaguars WR Jakobi Meyers logs limited practice due to thumb injury
Drew Doughty named captain of the Kings, succeeding Anze Kopitar
Drew Doughty was named captain of the Los Angeles Kings on Wednesday, inheriting the leadership position left vacant by Anze Kopitar's retirement. The 36-year-old Doughty is the franchise leader among defensemen in numerous categories, including goals, assists, points and games played and was a key piece in their Stanley Cup victories in 2012 and 2014. “Being named captain of an NHL team is something I’m truly honored by, and it’s something I take great pride in,” Doughty said in a statement released by the team.
Should You Buy PayPal Stock For Its Credit Business?
PayPal (PYPL) has gained 27% over the past three months while the S&P 500 returned 0.7%. Over the trailing twelve months, the stock is still down 18.7%, so the whole gain is recent. A gain that recent still needs an operating reason to hold, and management points to what PayPal lends, not to the checkout button.
WCC Faith and Science Working Group: rethinking what it means to be human
The Faith and Science Working Group is part of the World Council of Churches (WCC) Commission of the Churches on Health and Healing. It evaluates modern technological and scientific advancements through theological and ethical lenses, focusing on human dignity, digital justice, and existential risks.
NASA’s New Horizons spots signs of liquid nitrogen flowing on Pluto
Scientists have found the first evidence that liquid may have flowed across Pluto’s surface in the recent past. Dark features on the enormous Sputnik Planitia glacier appear consistent with liquid nitrogen rising through cracks from deep beneath the ice. Computer models show that nitrogen could melt at the glacier’s base and travel upward like fluid through small conduits. The finding reveals that Pluto may be much more geologically active than its frozen appearance suggests.
Barnstable freshman Logan Anderson leads boys golf win over Falmouth
Recapping Wednesday's Cape Cod and Islands high school sports action.
CHLA Research Programs Encourage High School and College Students to Explore Careers in Science and Medicine
Participants in the Chuck Lorre Research Scholars Program and the Samuels Family Los Angeles High School Internship Program at Children's Hospital Los Angeles lead guided research projects, gaining experience for future medical and scientific careers.
AI Race, Sticky Content, Fan Communities: Variety's Ent & Tech Summit
The AI race, the search for sticky content and fan communities are on the agenda at Variety's Entertainment and Technology Summit on Sept. 17 in L.A.
Armor Health Expands Structured Approach to Women's Postpartum Mental Health in Correctional Settings
/PRNewswire/ -- Armor Health (ArmorHealthcare.com), a national provider of correctional healthcare, is expanding its distinct, structured approach to...
Best of Orange County 2026: Best charitable organization
The Orange County Register named Rady Children’s Health, formerly CHOC, among Orange County’s leading charitable organizations.
Local trucking business owner feels the ‘full impact’ of diesel prices has yet to be felt by trucking companies or customers as prices hit record highs
It should come as no surprise that gas prices are continuing to climb and it doesn't appear they will be desce...
Expert available: Interest rate hike impact and rural business
Eric Mikolai, lending program manager for the nation’s third largest SBDC network, NorCal SBDC, is available to discuss today’s interest rate hike and its impact on small businesses in rural economies, including borrowing costs, cash flow, business expansion, and access to capital. Mikolai specializes in small business lending and capital strategy. He can speak to the broader economic implications on hiring, commercial real estate, business acquisitions, and long-term economic growt
Your Entertainment Escape Ep. 47 - Getting to Know Paleoanthropologist Ella Al-Shamahi
Fresno and Central Valley news, weather and sports
'Momnesia' is real—scientists find a biological explanation for temporary forgetfulness during pregnancy
Many women say the same thing during pregnancy: They walk into a room and forget why, misplace their keys or struggle to follow a conversation. This phenomenon, often called "pregnancy brain" or "momnesia," ...
Here’s everything new in Android 17 QPR2 Beta 5 [Gallery]
Android 17 QPR2 Beta 5 is rolling out today to continue the development cycle ahead of the stable December launch.
TCI Entertainment Aligns with Globant to Advance its Patented Interactive Commerce Technology
/PRNewswire/ -- TCI Entertainment ("TCI"), a technology company developing a proprietary platform designed to connect commerce with gaming and interactive...
You like Ike. But AI will help campaigns figure how to ensure you actually vote
Strategists predict the powerful new technology will bring seismic shifts in U.S. political life.
RCOB marks anniversaries and welcomes new faculty and staff - Gary W. Rollins College of Business
The best business schools are built by the people in them. At UTC’s Gary W. Rollins College of Business, students learn from faculty who bring real experience into the classroom and are supported by staff who know how to help — a combination that turns a degree into a career. This year, 13 new faces… Continue Reading
DMU opens applications for Iowa’s first Doctor of Medical Science program
Des Moines University Medicine and Health Sciences has opened applications for a new Doctor of Medical Science program, which the university says is the first of its kind in Iowa. The fully online, 30-credit program is designed for physician associates/assistants seeking to advance into clinical leadership, education or research roles. The cohort-based program consists of…
DMU opens applications for Iowa’s first Doctor of Medical Science program
Des Moines University Medicine and Health Sciences has opened applications for a new Doctor of Medical Science program, which the university says is the first of its kind in Iowa. The fully online, 30-credit program is designed for physician associates/assistants seeking to advance into clinical leadership, education or research roles. The cohort-based program consists of…
Google doubles down on today's preview builds with Android 17 QPR2 Beta 5
Android 17 QPR1 just had its stable release earlier this week, but development continues on QPR2, with Beta 5 now landing.
Google rolling out Android 17 QPR2 Beta 5 for Pixel
The two-week update cycle continues with Google rolling out Android 17 QPR2 Beta 5 for Pixel devices today...
Microserve Ranks No. 4 Among B.C.'s Top Grossing Science and Technology Companies
Microserve is proud to be ranked No. 4 among British Columbia's top revenue producing science and technology companies in BCBusiness magazine's 2026 Top 100 rankings.
Governor Moore Announces $1.36 Million in Awards to Expand Prevention, Reduction of Gun Violence
Governor Moore Announces $1.36 Million in Awards to Expand Prevention, Reduction of Gun Violence
Windows 11 KB5124008 update breaks domain trust for some users
Microsoft is investigating reports that the Windows 11 KB5124008 security update is breaking domain trust relationships on some enterprise systems, preventing users from logging in with valid domain credentials.
Springfield considers cannabis tax revenue for small business grants
Proposed program would provide up to $100,000 to eight local businesses.
What Does the Science of Climate Change Really Look Like?
Editor’s Note: This is the second in a three-part series on how the Right should think about environmental and climate policy. Read Chris Barnard on Reclaiming Environmental Policy from the Left. More than a decade ago, the world’s governments negotiated and signed the Paris Climate Agreement, committing to hold global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius. In the following years, climate had immense cultural power. Greta Thunberg emerged. Fortune 500 companies established net-zero plans. The U.S. got the Inflation Reduction Act. Then the pendulum swung back. President Donald Trump returned to the Oval Office, speaking of green energy as a “scam” and carbon footprints as a “hoax” and on all matters of international policy emphasizing bilateral engagement and power over globalism and cooperation. The technology companies that had been at the forefront of net-zero pledges and green leadership discovered the importance of all-of-the-above power to their visions for artificial intelligence and began quietly postponing or removing their targets. On the left side of the political spectrum, rising concerns about inflation and cost pushed climate lower down in the stated priorities of voters and stump speeches of politicians. The moment is ripe for a reset on the politics of climate change and for conservatives especially to chart a course that acknowledges and addresses the real challenges in plausible ways. So what should we think about climate change as we enter a post-peak climate era? If it is neither an apocalypse nor a hoax, what will hold up as a durable view of climate change? And how does it project onto the concerns and priorities of the right-of-center’s emerging coalition? New to Commonplace_? Subscribe below to get the magazine in your inbox._ Subscribe A Solid Foundation As the politics and economics of climate careened over the past ten years, the physics carried on regardless. In 2015, the year the Paris Climate Agreement was adopted, the world emitted 41.2 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide. By 2025, emissions had risen only 2.4%, to 42.2 gigatonnes, because falling emissions from land use offset increasing emissions from fossil fuels. But slow growth in annual emissions is not rapid decline, let alone net-zero, so carbon dioxide kept accumulating in the atmosphere, going from 399 to 426 parts per million. Global temperature kept rising too, from about 1.1 degrees Celsius above the 1850–1900 average in 2015, to 1.4 degrees above it in 2025. None of this should surprise anyone. Even most prominent skeptics, like the authors of the 2025 report commissioned by the Trump administration’s Department of Energy, accept the basic physics. Carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere at industrial volumes accumulates and traps heat that would otherwise escape to space. That heat warms the upper ocean and increases temperatures at the surface. Increased ocean heat and melting of land ice cause sea levels to rise. Changes in the climate become noticeable to us as subtle shifts in temperature and precipitation, seasons arriving early or late, changes in the surrounding ecosystem, and weather extremes. The much more meaningful debate is not about whether these things are happening, but about what it all means for human societies. (While it is a proxy measure of overall risk, no one experiences global surface temperature.) This debate invokes at least three interesting questions: how much today’s warming is showing up in regional climate trends, how much more warming we should anticipate, and how extreme weather events can be understood in the context of climate change. Recent scientific advances give us new insights into each of these, but there is still much to learn. This is the context in which the next generation of conservative leaders will be the first to deal with significant climate change as a fact, not a forecast. It will be with them for their entire careers. Our evolving scientific picture of climate change will come from weather and climate records stretching further into the past, new kinds of observations in the present, better modeling tools for the future, and simply more time to observe the emergence of climate signals and their tangible effects on ecosystems and communities in the United States and around the world. The policy landscape will be shaped by not only the impacts of changes in the climate, but also by the ways in which societies respond and by the emergence of new technologies for both altering the trajectory of emissions and adapting to new climate realities. Global climate records now show the fingerprints of warming in different phenomena around much of the world. The IPCC, in its most recent assessment report, documents warming trends over all land regions, even as natural variability adds substantial variance to local trends. And the highest temperature extremes have become more intense and frequent, almost everywhere, since the 1950s. Scientists are highly confident that these changes are attributable to human influence. But confidence in detecting trends and attributing them to human influence degrades across heavy precipitation events; drought trends are heterogeneous and not attributable to human activity with great confidence. For hurricanes, tornadoes, and other severe storms there is even less confidence in trends or their relationship to climate change. In general, a fair summary of the evidence is that for well-observed phenomena, like surface temperature or heavy rainfall, with a clear relationship to warming, our multidecadal observations are consistent with human influence overcoming natural variability over long time periods and extremes increasing. For regions that are sampled more sparsely, or phenomena with a higher noise-to-signal ratio, we will need to observe them longer to understand the magnitude of the climate signal or improve dynamical understanding using models and observations together. But for Climate For those who can’t wait, we also have new techniques that attempt to understand the role climate change has in influencing particular extreme events. When the climate is changing and disaster strikes, it is natural to ask whether that disaster was somehow “caused” by climate change. For scientists and policymakers acting in good faith, answering that question helps develop a more accurate picture of the problem, how it may be getting worse, and what preparations we should be making to respond to it. It may, at some point, give some weight to how liability is assigned by courts or adaptation funding is distributed by society. But how we ask this question is extremely important. It is easy to get the analysis wrong by discounting the role that meteorology plays. As meteorologist Theodore Shepherd explained in a clear 2016 review of climate attribution methods, “if a weather or climate event is truly extreme in the present climate, then perforce it requires unusual meteorological conditions, which means that climate change is at most a contributing factor.” Share Scientists have two ways to probe climate as a contributing factor, both of which have entered media coverage of extreme weather events. One asks a probabilistic question: How much more likely is a particular event (e.g., a temperature record over a particular area) amid global warming? The answer involves using historical records and computer simulations to estimate the likelihood of such an event in both a changed and a preindustrial climate. The findings are less about the specific event, and more about events of that nature. The other question is: How has the changed climate affected the specific event in question? Here, scientists try to understand what a similar event would have looked like in the preindustrial climate. This is sometimes called the storyline approach, where the story is the specific meteorological details of the event. These methods offer ways to test the intuition of scientists about real weather extremes. In late June and early July of 2021, a persistent high-pressure ridge, or heat dome, set up over the Pacific Northwest and an extraordinary heat wave affected the area from Oregon to British Columbia. For six days, it shattered temperature records across the region and hundreds died from heat-related causes, in an area where such high, and persistently high, temperatures were well outside of experience and many live without air conditioning. Scientists have studied its connection to climate change using multiple approaches. This specific event was created by a rare combination of meteorological factors, a strong high-pressure ridge created the conditions for extreme heat, which occurred on top of higher average temperatures in the region from global warming. Probabilistic analyses showed that climate change increased the likelihood of such an event by at least 8-fold to more than 100-fold. One standout example found that such an event had effectively zero probability of occurring in the preindustrial climate. The enormous range in these assessments reflects how hard it is to estimate probabilities of events at the tail of the historical record. Estimates of the effect on the temperature of the event are more clustered. A recent review paper documents how multiple methodologies have found a positive influence, roughly 1-2 degrees Celsius of an anomaly that exceeded 15 degrees, of climate change on the temperature magnitude of the event. Multiple studies have investigated and found some positive influence of climate change in other extreme events. Attribution studies found climate likely increased the heavy rainfall that accompanied Hurricane Helene in North Carolina and surrounding regions in 2024. The extensive fires that struck Los Angeles in 2025 illustrate how the causal chain can become messy, though. Studies do detect a positive influence of climate on the event’s likelihood, but while climate change likely contributed to underlying aridity, it would not have played a role in the heavy winds or land practices that preceded disaster. These event attribution studies will become more common for extreme, or damaging, weather events. They can be produced quickly, and often are reported before peer review. As the Pacific Northwest heatwave example shows, when multiple methods converge on a positive attribution, the finding should probably carry some weight even if you have to be careful about accepting the results from a single study. I expect that as climate change proceeds and the climate thus departs further from a preindustrial counterfactual, the influence will become more detectable across a variety of extreme events and more easily identified. This will be used to cast blame, but can also be used to inform how communities and society adapt to ongoing change. We May Still Be Surprised One positive development, insofar as less climate change is better, has been that our central estimates for future climate change should probably be revised downward. Mostly, that is because the high-end warmings that scientists regularly analyzed about ten to 20 years ago, driven by high emissions throughout the twenty-first century, now appear to be somewhere between unlikely and impossible. At one time, the upper end of mainstream climate projections extended well into 4 to 6 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of this century, which, models suggest, would have wrought enormous real-world damage. Current energy and policy trends now point toward 2.5 or 3 degrees. Damages and risks are commonly modeled as increasing steeply with more warming, so this is already a better-than-previously-expected outcome for the climate (which is independent of the physical response to emissions). But we should maintain a wide range for plausible outcomes and prepare for the possibility of being surprised. Emissions trajectories are subject to deep uncertainty, the physical climate response is still developing, and whatever change occurs in the climate will then be mediated through unpredictable economic, social, and political institutions. Over the past decade, the pace of warming surprised some keen observers and appeared to accelerate, though not yet outside the range of expectation provided by climate models. The reasons for that apparent acceleration are being actively studied (as was the apparent pause in warming from 1998 to 2012), but no single driver has emerged. Some blame it on the El Niño, variability which would have no bearing on climate. Some think it is a result of factories in East Asia and global shipping fleets cutting aerosol emissions, which in the strongest version of the argument would indicate higher climate sensitivity to carbon-dioxide emissions. Others are more measured, not yet ready to draw solid conclusions as to whether climate projections require revision. We will have to see. Long-Term Thinking Climate change asks us to think over long time scales. But the pace of human-driven warming is compressing a large global change into a century. Changing weather patterns and extreme events are already causing adjustment costs and damages and will do more. Adaptation will help, but it is not free. For some communities, these costs will erode livelihoods and well-being, and may force migration. Are we prepared for large-scale managed retreats in the United States? Thankfully, American wealth, geographical diversity, and moderate climates may leave us better prepared than many around the world. But wealthy countries can still suffer serious disruption from narrowly concentrated costs, even if they appear entirely manageable in aggregate. Readers of Commonplace are familiar with the challenges of rapidly adapting to economic forces. The displacement that came from the China Shock is barely perceptible in aggregate GDP and employment data, but it affected millions of people and those people were far less mobile than economic models tended to assume. Deindustrialization rippled through the nation with enormous effects for not only our economic vitality, but also our national security. The forces surrounding climate change may not be so different; the world gets richer and must accept some diffuse costs. Those may be modest overall, but cause all manner of unpredictable effects with which policymakers must cope. In the case of the China Shock, our faith in a growing pie served us poorly. We’ll need to do better on climate. Leave a comment
Health First announces layoffs of 214 workers
Health First is cutting 214 jobs across its Brevard County operations, impacting administrative and patient programs.
American Society for Microbiology honors Vanderbilt Health investigators
American Society for Microbiology awards highlight the ‘strength and breadth’ of microbiology research at Vanderbilt Health.
Community Conversation: Dr. Daniel Reed with UVA Health (09-16-26)
Hematologist Oncologist Dr. Daniel Reed
A health-and-wellness company begins trading on a different public market Sept. 17
OTCQB companies undergo annual verification and management certification; Earth Science Tech combines pharmacy operations, telemedicine and direct fulfillment.
Trump officials considering AI executive meeting on the sidelines of Xi visit next week
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LIBN reveals 2026 Leaders in Law and Leaders in Business & Finance honorees
Long Island Business News has selected this year’s Leaders in Law and Leaders in Business & Finance. The Leaders in Law Awards recognize dedicated
SPX Technologies acquires Fresno-based FIS Water for $410M
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Detroit CIOs and CISOs to Examine AI Governance, Cybersecurity Resilience, Enterprise Transformation and the Rise of the 'CEO of Technology' at HMG Strategy’s September 24 Summit
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Workiva ties AI-native workflows to business outcomes- SiliconANGLE
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New trick could reveal text on 2,000-year-old scrolls charred by eruption of Mount Vesuvius
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How AI Is Helping Growing Businesses Take the Complexity Out of Payroll
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Cross-disciplinary panel discussion will explore the interplay between scientific consensus, democratic governance, and the climate crisis.
Discussion Panel Tackles Science, Democracy & Climate at NYC Climate Week
Cross-disciplinary panel discussion will explore the interplay between scientific consensus, democratic governance, and the climate crisis.
Future Frequency Kids
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Kaiser Permanente leads the nation in top-rated health plans
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Spurs Sports & Entertainment announces technology chief hiring
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Hard Rock Hotel & Casino Atlantic City Named Among Nation's Best for Dining and Entertainment
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Opinion: Bridgeport residents have every right to demand answers
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What Makes a Trailblazer: TSTC graduate always dreamed of business ownership
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Florida holds steady in ESPN's latest bracketology update
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May Mobility set to go public in a $1.4B deal
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Curiosity Blog, Sols 5002-5009: Tough Planning To Learn More About Wind-Blown Sediments
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How Technology Is Quietly Reshaping the Beef Business
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How TIME and Statista Determined the World's Top HealthTech Companies of 2026
Read the methodology
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Fresh Googlebook leak offers an early glimpse at Acer, ASUS, and Lenovo models
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TEMU PARTNERS WITH CITEA TO SUPPORT CYPRUS' DIGITAL BUSINESS COMMUNITY
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Lincoln College property to become business hub, leased for just $1
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Anixa Biosciences Appoints UPenn's Dr. Carmen Guerra to Cancer Business Advisory Board
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Tennessee unveils name and official logo for Neyland Entertainment District
The University of Tennessee unveiled the name and branding of its Neyland Entertainment District on Wednesday in a major milestone for the project.
Clarksville Police, Centerstone awarded grant for Behavioral Health Mobile Crisis Team
The Clarksville Police Department and Centerstone are recipients of a Behavioral Health Mobile Crisis Team Partnerships Grant.
Survey: 54% of Small- to Mid-Sized Businesses Report Double-Digit Health Plan Premium Increases for 2027
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Maryland Business Community Advances Growth and Opportunity
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Seoul National University of Science and Technology Researchers Develop a Reliable AI System for SSD Failure Prediction
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Business Beat : Coldwater Chamber seeking new Executive Director
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Editorial: AI’s logic is no substitute for human emotion
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