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Ford reports Q2 sales down 10% as it transforms the business
Ford reported a decline in Q2 U.S. sales as commercial fleet sales pulled back and pickup production struggled to catch up after a fire at a supplier.
🌈 The political fatigue of doing feminist and queer research in anti-gender times
Anti-gender politics does not only attack rights. It attacks the knowledge that makes those rights intelligible. Massimo Prearo argues that anti-gender politics is an epistemic conflict as much as a political one. This conflict generates political fatigue among researchers engaged in feminist and queer work. We must address such fatigue through distance, care and collective reflection
Federal court ruling on Alabama prison mental health care could lower staffing requirements
The 11th Circuit reverses some of the federal court's order, including the staffing levels the federal court originally required.
Happy birthday, USA? At 250, nation may be too divided to celebrate
With President Trump stamping his imprint on the official commemoration, many Americans are struggling with how to separate politics from pageantry.
Paramount ad tech org chart: Who has power after leadership shuffle
David Ellison's Paramount Skydance is reshaping its ad product and tech teams. Here's what changes were made, and who's rising within the company.
Building connections across molecular life science
ASBMB President Ed Eisenstein reflects on how the society shaped his scientific career and outlines his vision for expanding connections across academia, industry and government to accelerate discovery, translation and community-building.
WHO, Member States discuss expanding South-East Asia Emergency Health Fund SEARHEF
With climate-related disasters, disease outbreaks and other health emergencies becoming more frequent and complex across South-East Asia, WHO and Member States today discussed measures to strengthen and expand the South-East Asia Regional Health Emergency Fund (SEARHEF) to ensure countries have rapid access to life-saving support when crises strike. "Health emergencies are becoming more frequent, more complex and more costly. Countries need rapid, flexible financing that can be mobilized immediately when lives are at risk. SEARHEF represents regional solidarity in action, enabling Member States to support one another when emergencies strike," said Dr Catharina Boehme, Officer-in-Charge WHO South-East Asia Region. She was addressing the Fifteenth Meeting of the Working Group on the Governance of SEARHEF.
Reflecting on a Year as Athlon Sports' Senior Golf Writer: Lessons from Golf's Stories
One year ago today, I officially began my run as Senior Golf Writer for Athlon Sports. By the time this opportunity arrived, I had already spent nearly three decades in golf as a PGA Professional, coach, educator, business owner, nonprofit founder and writer. The biggest lesson from my first year with Athlon Sports was not about deadlines, access or the volume of stories written.
Crooked Letter Sports: We’ve got World Cup (and golf) fever | Ep. 303
As the World Cup moves to the Knockout Rounds, we take a look at the most exciting games so far and pontificate on the USA’s chances. Plus, Scottie Scheffler finishes second (again) and Rick picks his favorite Mississippi courses.
Trump's new Air Force One: differences, design, cost, photos of inside
Donald Trump flew on the new Air Force One, a luxury jet gifted from Qatar, for the first time. Here's how it compares to the old presidential plane.
Sony to end physical PlayStation game discs for new releases starting in 2028
Sony says all new PlayStation games released after January 2028 will be sold digitally, reflecting changing consumer demand and the gaming industry's broader move away from physical media.
Trump Health Cuts Spark Concerns Over ‘Flesh-Eating’ Bacteria
Scientists say deadly beach bacteria are expanding just as the Trump administration scales back disease-monitoring programs.
This satellite constellation transformed earth science by creatively tuning in to GPS signals
Key takeaways —The first constellation to produce high-quality data by picking up GPS microwaves reflecting off Earth, called CYGNSS, is featured in the Smithsonian National Air and Space Museum's Living in the Space Age exhibit. —Distortions in the reflected signals can reveal information about Earth, including hurricane wind speed and the distribution of moisture in soil, and the constellation provided unprecedented coverage in both time and space. —GNSS-R data is useful for mon
NC’s first full budget since 2023 reflects transformed health policy landscape
North Carolina's first full budget since 2023 reflects Medicaid expansion, Healthy Opportunities Pilot funding, SNAP changes and new federal health policies.
Politics aside, Mexico and Ecuador fans keep World Cup rivalry friendly
Shrugging off a raucous midnight serenade outside their team hotel as part of football's folklore, travelling Ecuadorean fans embraced a festive World Cup atmosphere in Mexico City on Tuesday ahead of their World Cup round of 32 clash with co-hosts Mexico.
North Dakota opens wellness equipment funding opportunity for rural hospitals | Health and Human Services North Dakota
From fitness and recovery equipment to mindfulness tools and wellness spaces that help reduce burnout, North Dakota Health and Human Services (HHS) is investing in the health and well-being of rural healthcare workers through a new funding opportunity for rural hospitals.Applications are now open for the Hospital Wellness Equipment funding opportunity through the North Dakota Rural Health Transformation Program (RHTP), providing resources to help rural North Dakota hospitals create healthier workplaces and support the physical, mental and emotional well-being of their workforce.
Supreme Court agrees to review ban on AR-style semi-automatic rifles in major Second Amendment case
The Supreme Court announced Tuesday that it will decide whether cities and states may ban people from owning AR-15 rifles and similar semiautomatic weapons, taking up a major Second Amendment dispute that it had previously declined to address.
Strengthening Collaboration between Workforce, Health, and Human Services to Meet New Federal Requirements
Human Services Policy Advisors Institute | June 24th, 2026 H.R. 1, or “The One Big Beautiful Bill”, introduced significant changes to work requirements across major health and human services programs. including expanding the populations subject to SNAP time limits, reducing state/territory SNAP waiver flexibility, and creating new work requirements in Medicaid. These changes accelerate the […]
Claude Science, an AI workbench for scientists
Claude Science is a customizable app that integrates the tools and packages researchers most often use, produces auditable artifacts, and provides flexible access to computing resources.
Studio Gang and Henning Larsen Complete One Milestone Life Science Campus in Boston
Studio Gang and Henning Larsen's One Milestone brings life science labs, flexible workspaces, and public amenities to Boston's Allston neighborhood.
Simon Leis's daughter reflects on her father's legacy, youth mental health advocacy
"We definitely knew there was a love-hate relationship with my father," says Julie Raleigh, on her father, Simon Leis's legacy. Although behind the headlines, Raleigh says that Leis was simply "Dad" to her, remembering him as a man who protected his family in the same way that he tried to keep Hamilton County safe throughout his time in law enforcement.
Brewers End Mini-Drought With 5-3 Win vs. Reds
Late-inning home runs from Milwaukee Brewers' Brice Turang and Joey Ortiz erased a three-run deficit, sparking a resilient offensive surge and dominant relief performance to stifle the Cincinnati Reds' divisional hopes.
‘Grateful and humbled’
MARSHALL — Two individuals who played important roles in building the Marshall baseball program into one of the state’s best were honored Sunday evening with induction into the Marshall Baseball Hall of Fame. Steve Fleck and Blaine Schnaible became the 20th and 21st members of this select group during a pre-game ceremony prior to the […]
Gavin Newsom signs law limiting mental health diversion for people accused of crimes
A new California law gives just more flexibility to keep defendants in jail rather than releasing them to community-based mental health treatment programs.
VIDEO: Champion Immersive's Buddy System In The Paddock
Every winning horse race is a team effort, but some require more teammates than others. Ahead of last Saturday's Grade 2 Fleur de Lis Stakes, Eclipse Award winner Immersive was accompanied by outrider Lee Lockwood and his horse LM Jokester in the Churchill Downs paddock, providing the 4-year-old ...
Luna the eagle takes a ‘leap of faith’
The 13-week-old eaglet flew to another tree, where his dad Shadow was waiting.
Gov. Laura Kelly surveys landscape as she exits government service, points to unfinished business
Term-limited Gov. Laura Kelly celebrates work on priorities of economic development, fiscal stewardship and investment in early-childhood development.
BYU-Idaho Launches BYUI Live! as New Name for Campus Entertainment
From chart-topping bands and Broadway stars to comedians and inspirational performers, live entertainment has become a valued part of the BYU-Idaho experience. Brigham Young University-Idaho is pleased to announce the rebranding of its long-running Center Stage series as BYUI Live!—a new name that reflects the university's vision to create memorable live entertainment experiences that bring BYU-Idaho students and the surrounding community together.
Cook County Issues New Funding Opportunities to Improve Mental Health in Suburban Cook County - Cook County Department of Public Health
Cook County Department of Public Health has issued an open call for funding opportunities to help improve mental health in suburban Cook County. The funding opportunities reflect the department’s commitment to building healthier communities in suburban Cook County. The open calls are for restorative practices in schools and power building.
LDI and American Healthcare
A news feature from the Pennsylvania Gazette reflects on LDI’s history and leaders, and how they are currently meeting the federal health policy moment.
Google Pixel phones may soon let you ‘shuffle’ your favorite wallpapers
According to new findings under the hood of Google’s software, future Pixel updates may deliver support for a “shuffle” option...
Apple Plans Wider Color Gamut for Future MacBook Pro, iMac, and iPad Pro
Apple plans to adopt OLED panels capable of displaying a much wider range of colors, according to a new report from research firm TrendForce. The new panels would cover 95% of the BT.2020 color standard, which describes a far broader spectrum of colors than the DCI-P3 standard Apple's screens currently target. In practice, that means deeper, more accurate reds, greens, and blues.
Viktor Hovland edges Scottie Scheffler in 2026 Travelers Championship playoff for first win in 15 months
Hovland beat Scheffler on the first playoff hole after the round required postponement and completion Monday morning
After stunning Scottie Scheffler miss, Viktor Hovland claims Travelers Championship in Monday playoff
Scottie Scheffler and Viktor Hovland settled the Travelers Championship with a Monday morning playoff.
The Fleet Science Center just got a major upgrade
There are more interactive exhibits, a free entry gallery and a new cafe.
Careers That Shaped Biology
Every great scientific career begins with a question no one has been able to answer — and a scientist stubborn enough to keep asking it. This series looks back at the careers of some of HHMI’s most distinguished scientists — people whose contributions have changed what we know about life itself, and whose stories reflect the best of what science, and scientists, can be.
Rocket Lab Buys Satellite Operator Iridium in Bid to Challenge SpaceX
The deal would give Rocket Lab control over a satellite fleet and access to wireless resources it could use to compete with SpaceX.
Flexjet buys Steve Varsano’s The Jet Business | Corporate Jet Investor
TikTok’s favourite business jet broker has been bought by Flexjet. Steve Varsano, founder of The Jet Business will become president.
WGU’s flexible, skills-first pathways are bridging Detroit’s talent gap
Discover how skills-first education is helping employers address workforce shortages across Southeast Michigan.
Winning Before Kickoff: The science behind success at the 2026 FIFA World Cup
The World Cup is usually remembered for what happens after the whistle: the impossible assist, the heroic save, the deflection that turns a nation’s hope into heartbreak. But in 2026, some of the most important contests may be decided before kickoff, in training rooms, recovery suites, flight schedules, hydration plans, and cooling protocols. Science cannot eliminate soccer’s glorious unpredictability, but it can help teams survive it.
Lakers have interest in trading for Cameron Johnson
The Lakers are one team that reportedly has interest in trading for Nuggets forward Cameron Johnson.
Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland set for Monday playoff at Travelers
The Travelers Championship will be decided in a playoff on Monday morning
Travelers Championship: Scottie Scheffler and Viktor Hovland go to Monday morning playoff after lightning delay
One of Jackie and Shadow’s chicks accidentally left the nest
Sandy lost her footing and fell down a few branches.
Can the so-called nanobubbler save the Reflecting Pool?
The $1.7 million “ozone nanobubbler” being used in an effort to make the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool water crystal clear has a unique ability to shoot 500 million microscopic bubbles into every teaspoon of water. The injected oxygen is supposed to oxidize — or, unscientifically speaking, smash through — algae, bacteria and other chemicals.
U.S. Rep. Julia Letlow, endorsed by Trump, wins the GOP primary for Senate in Louisiana
Letlow, who was endorsed by Trump, defeated state Treasurer John Fleming in the two-candidate runoff after they finished ahead of Cassidy in the GOP primary May 16.
A brief history of same-named political candidates, election hijinks and Dan Sullivans in Alaska
The kerfuffle surrounding the Alaska Senate race isn’t the first time two Dan Sullivan candidates have wound up on the same ballot.
England will miss Stokes' winning persona
Former England captain Michael Vaughan reflects on Ben Stokes' shock retirement and how the team can move on from one of their "greatest" players.
South Korea president ‘baffled’ by World Cup exit, calls for government investigation
President Lee appeared to criticise the South Korean football association's (KFA) appointment of head coach Hong Myung-bo.
What science tells us about the algae bloom in the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool
Algal blooms are not maintenance failures requiring paint or treatment with hydrogen peroxide and nanobubbles. They are ecological warning signs.
The New York Knicks keep the ‘Cupid Shuffle’ stepping: Herman Fuselier
From NBA championships to the Guinness Book of World Records, Cupid shuffles on.
Jordan vs Argentina Highlights
Check out the full game highlights between Jordan and Argentina in the 2026 FIFA World Cup™. Announced by Darren Fletcher and Owen Hargreaves.
Julia Letlow defeats John Fleming in GOP Senate runoff. Jamie Davis wins Democratic nod.
Letlow staved off a tough challenge from Treasurer John Fleming, while Davis overwhelmingly one his party’s nomination.
Trump-backed Rep. Julia Letlow wins Louisiana Senate primary runoff
Letlow defeated state Treasurer John Fleming in the GOP runoff, NBC News projects. Incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy did not make the runoff.
Trump-backed Julia Letlow faces John Fleming in Louisiana GOP Senate runoff
U.S. Rep. Julia Letlow, who was endorsed by Trump, and state Treasurer John Fleming are competing in the runoff. The two finished ahead of Sen. Bill Cassidy in the May 16 primary after Trump denounced the two-term senator, who voted to convict him following his 2021 impeachment.
The Orlando Magic Waive Defensive Versatile Forward Jonathan Isaac
The Orlando Magic severs ties with the former lottery pick to avoid a looming salary guarantee, ending an injury-plagued nine-year tenure while seeking financial flexibility for a critical offseason.
A Giant Scorpion the Size of a Coffee Table Is Forcing Scientists To Rethink Evolution
Praearcturus gigas was a meter-long Devonian scorpion whose size may reflect a world with few large competitors rather than high oxygen alone.
Starz Entertainment (STRZ) Stock Sees Fair Value Lift After Q1 Analyst Target Increases
Price targets for Starz Entertainment have shifted as the analyst fair value estimate moved from US$19.38 to US$28.50, putting a higher reference point in focus for investors tracking the stock. Recent Street research has turned more constructive after the Q1 report, with several firms lifting price targets and updating models to reflect how they now view execution risks and valuation support. In the sections that follow, you will see how to interpret these changing targets and what they...
Thanks, Obama: Reflections on a library and a presidency
The years since Obama left office have underscored for me just how important character, temperament and respect for the rule of law are for a president.
Community helps rebuild Future Champions Sports Complex
Now, one year after the disaster, Jamison said he reflects on the support he was shown.
Egor Shilov Drafted 43rd Overall By Colorado Avalanche
Penn State hockey commit Egor Shilov was drafted 43rd overall by the Colorado Avalanche in the 2026 NHL Entry Draft: Shilov quickly flew up the NHL Draft radar after an outstanding 2025-26 season with the Victoriaville Tigers of the QMJHL. He had 82 points (32 goals, 50 assists) in the regular season, good for 7th […]
Women Over 50 Aren't Just Starting Businesses. They're Redefining Work.
Women over 50 are starting businesses, but the bigger story is how they're redefining work through greater flexibility, purpose, and control over their careers.
After ousting Bill Cassidy, Donald Trump faces fresh test of his sway with GOP voters in Louisiana’s Senate runoff
Louisiana Republican voters already rejected an incumbent senator who was crossways with President Donald Trump. In a primary runoff on Saturday, they’ll decide whether to follow Trump’s lead in choosing a new nominee.
Letlow, Fleming face off for Cassidy's seat in Louisiana GOP Senate runoff
Arts & Entertainment Calendar
Events coming up in the Greenville area offer music, arts, theater and family fun. Here is a sampling.
'Godfather of SaaS' says you can't get truly rich working from home
SaaStr founder Jason Lemkin agrees with Flexport CEO Ryan Peterson's skepticism of remote work.
Exit statement from midfielder baffles Real Madrid fans
Real Madrid confirmed what had been an open secret on Friday, that Dani Ceballos would be leaving. The 29-year-old has been a bit-part player for some time, but continued reports about his exit seemed...
Trump-backed Letlow faces Fleming in Louisiana GOP Senate runoff
President Donald Trump’s choice for U.S. Senate in Louisiana is seeking to secure the GOP nomination and deliver another win for the president in his effort to replace Republicans who crossed him
Politics Unplugged Podcast: Headlines with Stacy Pearson and Marcus Dell’Artino
The Politics Unplugged panel breaks down a possible Arizona special session tied to ESA vouchers, union protections and ballot measures. The discussion centers on whether lawmakers could unwind late-night legislation that angered teachers, police and firefighters. They also examine Gov. Katie Hobbs’ political leverage and why both parties may have reasons to cut a deal. Later, the podcast turns to Trump tax cuts, Democratic Socialists, the White House reflecting pool controversy and the World Cup.
Fleet Science Center unveils two new exhibition spaces after renovation
The $5.6 million renovation expands exhibit space and adds new interactive visitor experiences.
Tired of long waits? Mochi Health offers virtual care starting at $39
Mochi Health now offers full-service virtual care with unlimited visits, flexible pharmacy options and plans starting as low as $39.
Ed Norton looks back on the surprising reaction to one of his now-iconic movies
Edward Norton is reflecting on the surprising reaction to 'Fight Club,' which overcame a rocky start to become an iconic film.
Registration open for 2026 Behavioral Health & Children and Family Services Conference | Health and Human Services North Dakota
Registration is now open for the sixth annual Behavioral Health & Children and Family Services Conference, scheduled for Sept. 14-17 at the Bismarck Event Center and online through a livestream option.The main conference will take place Sept. 15-17, with optional pre- and post-conference sessions offered Sept. 14 and Sept. 17.More than 1,400 in-person attendees and hundreds of virtual participants are expected to take part in keynote presentations, breakout sessions and networking opportunities focused on behavioral health, child welfare, suicide prevention and youth development.
Mia Sara reflects on working with ‘weird guy’ Tom Cruise in 'Legend'
Mia Sara recalls working with Tom Cruise in the Ridley Scott film 'Legend,' saying the actor was 'very insecure.'
Faculty voice: The creative tension of America’s founding documents
Eric Gonzalez Juenke, an associate professor at MSU's Department of Political Science, reflects on the founding documents of America and what it means 250 years later.
Scientists Baffled by Discovery of Rare “Pink Floyd” Spider Hidden in Home Walls - Futura-Sciences
The Birth of a “Pink Floyd” Spider Tiny, discreet, and quietly settled on urban walls, a new species of spider was recently discovered in Colombia—and christened as a tribute to the iconic rock band Pink Floyd. As part of a study published in the journal Zoosystematics and Evolution, South American...
Why the Amex Business Gold is my go-to card for business expenses
The Amex Business Gold makes earning rewards simple with automatic bonus categories, flexible Membership Rewards points and statement credits that help offset its annual fee.
PepsiCo Q2 earnings expected to reflect weakness in North American snack business, delayed recovery
PepsiCo Inc (NASDAQ:PEP, XETRA:PEP) earnings outlook was trimmed by Bank of America analysts ahead of the company’s second quarter results, with softer-than-expected performance in its North American snacks business offsetting steadier international trends. The analysts lowered their fiscal...
Minuteman Press Franchise Owner Dave Forster Reflects on 40 Years in Minneapolis
MINNEAPOLIS, June 26, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Dave and Sandy Forster are the owners of Minuteman Press in Minneapolis, MN since February of 198...
Trump forced to drain the reflecting pool swamp
Jonathan Freedland speaks to Arwa Mahdawi about why this project is proving to be such an embarrassing failure for the president
Elroy Air to Become Publicly Traded Company via Business Combination with Inflection Point-led SPAC
Elroy Air, Inc., a leading U.S.-based technology developer of autonomous heavy-cargo drones for defense, rapid response and commercial logistics, and Columbu...
Tunisia vs Netherlands Extended Highlights
Check out the full game highlights between Tunisia and Netherlands in the 2026 FIFA World Cup™. Announced by Darren Fletcher and Owen Hargreaves.
Japan vs Sweden Extended Highlights
Check out the full game highlights between Japan and Sweden in the 2026 FIFA World Cup™. Announced by Darren Fletcher and Owen Hargreaves.
Matt Rhule hosts youth football camp in Omaha through FlexWork Sports
Matt Rhule and four Nebraska football players made the trek to Omaha Thursday.
WATCH: Stephen Miller says 'America's doors are closed fully to asylum seekers' after Supreme Court rulings
The Supreme Court voted 6-3 on Thursday to allow the Trump administration to end legal protections for migrants fleeing violence and natural disaster in Haiti and Syria, exposing hundreds of thousands more people to potential deportation.
FEMA official who claimed he teleported to Waffle House ousted from agency, sources say
A top FEMA official who had drawn scrutiny for bizarre past remarks — including claiming he teleported to a Waffle House — has been pushed out of the agency, four sources tell CNN.
Moore links Maryland primary to Mamdani-backed wins; analysts disagree
Gov. Wes Moore says Maryland’s primary election showed voters rejected the status quo, but political analysts say the results reflect a more complicated picture.
Yearslong Resident Evil mystery solved: Kyle MacLachlan revealed to be Jill Valentine's 'boyfriend'
Twin Peaks star has ties to STARS
WATCH: Kellyanne Conway insists socialist primary victories don't reflect American values nationwide
Kellyanne Conway says Democratic primary wins reflect only a handful of specific districts and do not signal a broader political shift nationwide.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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