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Wilmington Small Business Coalition: Building Momentum in 2026 by Heather McWhorter
This article was contributed by Lydia Thomas, UNCW CIE Program Manager. North Carolina continues to be one of the best states to start a business and in 2025, Wilmington, North Carolina earned a spot on the GoDaddy list of the top 10 most entrepreneurial cities in the U.S. While many know Wilmington as small beach town with exceptional food, lots of coffee shops, and fun, vibrant summer activities, a closer look reveals a thriving innovation economy. You’ll find startups emerging across industries including software, healthtech, bluetech, and fintech. At the core of this entrepreneurial ecosystem is the Wilmington Small Business Coalition, with small business advocates and entrepreneur support organizations (ESOs) dedicated to helping founders grow, thrive, and succeed. “No Wrong Door” Established in 2016, the Coalition was designed to make it easier for individuals and small businesses to access resources most suited to their particular needs. The Coalition is designed to have a “no wrong door” entryway into the regional startup ecosystem. Whether you are exploring a new idea sketched on the back of a napkin or leading a more established, growth-stage company, Coalition members can help connect you with the programs, funding opportunities, mentors, and resources best suited to your needs. No matter where you are in your entrepreneurial journey, any Coalition organization can help point you in the right direction. Coalition Members and Leadership Coalition members include the UNCW Center for Innovation and Entrepreneurship (UNCW CIE), AARP, Brunswick Community College Small Business Center, Cape Fear Community College Small Business Center, Cape Fear Region SCORE, Genesis Block Foundation, Network for Entrepreneurs in Wilmington (NEW), Small Business & Technology Development Center (SBTDC), Greater Wilmington Chamber of Commerce, YWCA Living the Dream Center for Entrepreneurship, Carolina Community Impact Fund (CCI Fund), Partner Community Capital, 717mkt Office Collaborative, NC Biotech, and Institute NC. In May 2026, the Coalition held its leadership elections, resulting in the selection of a new executive team. The following officers were elected to serve two-year terms: Chair: Lydia Thomas, UNCW CIE Vice Chair: Diane Lantz, CCI Fund Secretary: Aariene Hansley, Genesis Block Foundation Treasurer: Gloria Monroe, SBTDC Vision for the Wilmington Small Business Coalition In 2026, the Wilmington Small Business Coalition continues its work as a collaborative network of organizations. By connecting programs, expertise, and services across partner organizations, entrepreneurs can more easily find the right support at the right time. Rather than operating in silos, the Coalition aims to function as a unified, cohesive system of support for small businesses and entrepreneurs, ensuring that resources and expertise across partner organizations are visible and accessible. Through stronger collaboration and shared pathways, entrepreneurs can move more seamlessly from idea to startup to growth. Looking to dive into the Wilmington entrepreneurial ecosystem? Connect with any of the Coalition partners to get started! Connect with CIE To learn more about CIE and our services, programs, and events, join the CIE newsletter. You can also follow us on social media: Instagram, Facebook, LinkedIn, TikTok, or YouTube. CIE’s website is uncw.edu/cie. Heather McWhorter is the director of the UNCW Center for Innovation and Entrepreneurship (CIE). CIE supports innovation-forward start-ups and helps to build a vibrant innovation economy for all in southeast NC.
Royals' Jac Caglianone: Returning to Kansas City lineup
Royals' Jac Caglianone: Returning to Kansas City lineup
From Military Service to Business Success: Seton Hall Program Helps Ne
Victoria Funn, Newark veteran and now culinary business owner, takes her business to the next level through Seton Hall's ImpactNJ program, a national collaborative supporting local entrepreneurs.
USA vs. Bosnia And Herzegovina: Storylines, Projected Lineup, Predictions
Everything to know about USA vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina in their group-stage finale.
GoDaddy names San Antonio America's most entrepreneurial city
San Antonio tops GoDaddy’s 2026 list of America’s most entrepreneurial cities, with 11% small business growth and 9,232 new businesses. A new Zillow tie-in cites below-average home values and rent as key draws.
She and Her Mother Built an 8-Figure Business Around a Beloved Family Heirloom. Now, the Legacy Continues: ‘So Much Bigger Than Just a Product.’
Christina Livada and her late mother Beth Haller LaSala built a brand based on warmth and comfort.
How a married couple balances entrepreneurship and their relationship
Darnah and Vic Thompson share their tips for other couples navigating running their businesses and being a good partner.
SoFi Introduces Small Business Loans to Help Members Pursue Their Business Ambitions
SAN FRANCISCO, June 30, 2026--SoFi Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: SOFI), the everything app for digital financial services, today announced the launch of SoFi Small Business Loans, to help entrepreneurs and small business owners access fast, transparent financing to run and grow their businesses.
Babson Launches Online Master’s Program in Business Creation · Babson Thought & Action
Babson’s new master’s program focuses on venture creation, as founders graduate with a master’s degree and a launch-ready business plan.
Is this Central Jersey shopping center proving malls are not dead?
Blue Star Shopping Center in Watchung sees a 40% increase in annual visitors as new restaurants, entertainment venues and retailers join the lineup.
Scientists may have finally found how Alzheimer's spreads through the brain
A common brain protein may be giving Alzheimer’s disease an unexpected way to spread, carrying toxic Tau proteins from damaged neurons into healthy ones. By blocking these harmful protein packages before they reach new cells, researchers believe it may one day be possible to slow the disease's relentless progression.
Manuel Neuer sets new Germany World Cup record
Manuel Neuer made his 23rd start for Germany at a World Cup, setting a new record for the national team after surpassing Lothar Matthäus and Miroslav Klose (both 22 starts).Julian Nagelsmann named Ba...
Doctors thought man had brain cancer — they found live tapeworms instead
Doctors suspected metastatic brain cancer in a 60-year-old man, but scans revealed pork tapeworm larvae causing neurocysticercosis.
Leaker outlines iPhone lineup for next year, with six new models coming
Apple is rumored to have more new iPhones launching in 2027 than ever before, here’s every model coming per leaker Digital Chat Station.
Seaport downgrades MSG Entertainment stock rating to neutral
Seaport downgrades MSG Entertainment stock rating to neutral
Kakao Entertainment Announces Genre-Spanning Lineup
Kakao Entertainment enjoyed a highly successful first half of the year, with its Netflix series “The WONDERfools” and “Boyfriend on Demand” hitting global home runs with their distinctive narratives. Also building on the recently released suspense drama “Notes from the Last Row,” Kakao Entertainment’s genre-spanning 2026 slate features the upcoming action-comedy “A Bona Fide Killer” and the thriller “Mousetrap,” cementing - Read our full Pop Culture on The Outerhaven .
Top salaries at AANS 2024
The Rolling Meadows-based American Association of Neurological Surgeons, founded in 1931 as the Harvey Cushing Society, represents the specialty of neurological surgery and has more than 9,000 members.
Top salaries at AANS 2024
The Rolling Meadows-based American Association of Neurological Surgeons, founded in 1931 as the Harvey Cushing Society, represents the specialty of neurological surgery and has more than 9,000 members.
This Ochsner Health “intrapreneur” has tips for innovating in-house
Korak Sarkar, MD, MHDS, leads a biodesign lab at Ochsner Health and details how physicians can pursue innovation from within their organizations.
Secret Alchemist, Sarelly and Borntostandout Are Among the Winners of The Business of Beauty Global Awards 2026
From emerging challengers to established disruptors, this year’s Global Awards winners are setting a new benchmark for beauty entrepreneurship.
Queerying neuroscience: How legislation and institutions reframe LGBTQIA+ researchers’ careers
In honor of Pride Month, The Transmitter spoke with three researchers who surveyed hundreds of LGBTQIA+ neuroscientists to better understand how institutional support, harassment and policy intersect to shape their professional trajectories.
Editorial: Keep up congressional pushback against Trump’s anti-science agenda
For about a decade, hundreds of deep-sea buoys off America’s coasts have been monitoring the conditions of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The streams of publicly available data they produce inform weather reports, generate valuable information about the planet’s changing climate and help the maritime industry and even the military maneuver the high seas.
Multiple sclerosis affects social life and work beyond physical health
Multiple sclerosis (MS) can have a substantial impact on many aspects of life beyond physical health, with 51% of people reporting that the disease affects their social life and 48% reporting that it affects their work, according to new research presented at the European Academy of Neurology (EAN) Congress 2026.
These fat-filled brain cells may be making multiple sclerosis worse
Scientists have uncovered a surprising clue that may help explain why multiple sclerosis (MS) progresses rapidly in some people but not others. In brain tissue from patients with severe MS, researchers found large numbers of “foamy” immune cells packed with fat droplets after absorbing damaged myelin. These overloaded cells appear to switch from helping repair the brain to fueling ongoing damage and inflammation.
Scientists Confirm that Two Gamma-Ray Bursts Were Caused by Collapsing Neutron Stars
Researchers from the Los Alamos National Laboratory have confirmed that two long-duration gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) originated from the collapse of neutron stars into black holes.
Paso Robles unveils entertainment lineup for July 4th celebration at Barney Schwartz Park
The evening's entertainment will begin at 5:30 p.m. with a performance by Garden Party, a local group playing music from the 1960s and 1970s.
Efzimfotase alfa demonstrated improvements in bone health in treatment-naïve pediatric patients with hypophosphatasia achieving median difference of 1.67 vs placebo in RGI-C Score at week 25 in MULBERRY Phase III trial
Positive results from the MULBERRY Phase III trial showed that efzimfotase alfa (ALXN1850), an investigational enzyme replacement therapy, demonstrated a statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement in bone health in children (2 to
Galaxy Z's days are apparently numbered: Accessories point to a very unusual name for Samsung's iPhone Ultra competitor
At first, it was called the Galaxy Z Wide Fold or the Galaxy Z Fold 8 Wide, then—according to generally reliable sources—simply the Galaxy Z Fold8. Now a fourth name has surfaced for the compact and wider iPhone Ultra alternative, that Samsung will unveil on July 22 alongside the updated Galaxy Z Fold 8 Ultra. However, as authentic as these images seem to be, there are doubts.
Trump’s Great American State Fair attendees say they haven’t noticed politics overshadowing the celebration
President Donald Trump kicked off the event with a headlining speech Wednesday after musical acts dropped out of the lineup citing concerns over partisanship.
Sarasota Business Awards honor innovation, entrepreneurship and the American spirit
The Greater Sarasota Chamber of Commerce recognized businesses in the community across 10 categories.
Brain activity under anesthesia challenges what we know about consciousness
The unconscious brain appears to be far more capable than scientists once believed. Researchers found that patients under general anesthesia could still process language at a sophisticated level, distinguishing nouns, verbs, and adjectives while listening to stories. Even more remarkably, neural activity showed signs of predicting upcoming words before they were heard. The results challenge traditional ideas about consciousness and hint at new possibilities for brain-computer interfaces.
Common pesticide linked to more than double the risk of Parkinson’s disease
Scientists at UCLA have linked long-term exposure to the pesticide chlorpyrifos with a sharply increased risk of Parkinson’s disease. People exposed to the chemical near their homes were more than twice as likely to develop the condition. Laboratory studies showed that chlorpyrifos damages dopamine neurons and interferes with the brain’s ability to remove toxic protein buildup.
Science & Medicine: Scanning the brain to improve treatment for traumatized teens
Around 20% of teens who have experienced emotional trauma don't respond to talk therapy. UT Health San Antonio is using neuroimaging to track brain changes in traumatized teens during a course of therapy to see if they can figure out why, which could lead to the development of more personalized treatments that will help more teens heal.
Arizona health officials investigate suspected pneumonic plague case
Health officials in Yavapai County are looking into a suspected case of pneumonic plague.
Maryland Christian Chamber of Commerce blends faith and business as membership grows
Since its launch in March 2026, the Maryland Christian Chamber of Commerce has grown to more than 100 member businesses, hosting networking events, prayer calls and monthly forums. The new organization blends Christian values with business principles to support entrepreneurs and foster a shared sense of purpose across Maryland.
Application deadline for 2026 RISE Up Harlingen Business Pitch Competition is July 6
The competition is a collaborative effort between the Harlingen Economic Development Corporation and UT Rio Grande Valley's Entrepreneurship and Commercialization Center.
Arizona health officials investigate suspected pneumonic plague case
Yavapai County Community Health Services said Friday that a county resident is thought to have contracted the infection.
AI Is Helping Small Businesses Get More Done, But It’s Far From The Only Productivity-Booster Helping Them Expand
Getting more done in less time is easier than ever for solopreneurs and small business owners, thanks to the ease of hiring contractors, using QR codes, touchless technology and other affordable methods.
What’s Happening: RI Small business shopping village
This summer, local entrepreneurs and small businesses will have their work on display at Providence Place.
Apple A20 Pro motherboard leak hints at notable memory and packaging upgrades
A leaked package layout of Apple's A20 Pro hints at several notable upgrades for the iPhone 18 Pro series. The next-gen SoC is said to feature a wider 96-bit memory interface, a redesigned packaging approach for improved thermals, and a larger Neural Processing Unit (NPU).
City of Covington awards final round of fiscal year 2026 Small Business Incentive program funding
The City of Covington continues its commitment to supporting entrepreneurs, revitalizing commercial corridors, and strengthening neighborhood business districts through the Covington Small Business Incentive Program. The Covington Board of Commissioners has approved the fourth and final round of Fiscal Year 2026 Small Business Incentive Program funding, awarding $28,000 to support four projects across the city....
Asheville grants $855K to business accelerator, extends recovery program through 2028
Asheville grants $855,000 to Optimist Ventures, an accelerator for Asheville entrepreneurs affected by Hurricane Helene.
Healthcare AI Leaders Are Rapidly Trying To Outmaneuver Skyrocketing Memory And GPU Costs
Compute power has become one of the most crucial components of the healthcare delivery cycle.
Private Equity Firms Are Snapping up Portugal’s Family Businesses
As a generation of entrepreneurs hits retirement age, they’re preparing to sell up to overseas investors.
Testing gives science-based data for Fairmont lakes
FAIRMONT— A partnership between the city of Fairmont and Minnesota State University-Mankato will result in comprehensive scientific data on the Fairmont Chain of Lakes. The $25,000 contract started on April 1 and will go through Dec. 31 of this year. Fairmont’s Water Resources Coordinator, Hannah Neusch, acknowledged that while the water treatment plant in Fairmont […]
4 AI Prompts to Build a Profitable One-Person Business in 2026 (The Part Every AI Influencer Skips)
Spot the one move every AI influencer skips — and turn it into your next multimillion-dollar business.
Guardians score, lineups vs Seattle Mariners at Progressive FIeld
The short-handed Guardians look to find some offense against the Mariners at Progressive Field. Follow along here for live updates.
The impact of club sports on student experience in higher education
Authors: Ryan Savitz1, Divit Gupta2, Jared Ward3, Andrew Bjorkelo1 1Neumann University 2Conestoga High School 3Brigham Young University Corresponding Author: Ryan Savitz savitzr@neumann.edu …
The 5-Question Org Chart Audit I Run Before Scaling AI Across a Business
AI success depends less on the technology and more on the organization behind it. These five questions help leaders identify the structural barriers that prevent AI from delivering real business impact.
New for MNSSHP 2026: Captain Jack Sparrow Leads Pirate Entertainment in Adventureland
Captain Jack Sparrow joins MNSSHP 2026 in Adventureland with a new pirate entertainment act. The Rusty Cutlass band has not appeared on any confirmed 2026 lineup yet.
I Went From Bedside Nurse to Business Owner By Turning a Hobby Into a Home Micro-Factory That Makes Over $100K a Year
Eric Street followed his crafting passion into business.
Are You Falling Into These 5 AI Traps? Here's How Smart Leaders Avoid Them.
Artificial intelligence is making founders fall into the same leadership traps. Here's how to make sure you avoid them.
How one lawyer built a $1.3 million firm on social media
An entrepreneur shifts from a traditional law firm to an AI-based legal service, gaining $650K funding and achieving $372K in revenue post-launch.
Deb Haaland Outlines Small Business Agenda in Address to Albuquerque Chamber
Native Vote 2026 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Deb Haaland (Laguna Pueblo) on Thursday outlined her vision for making New Mexico more welcoming to entrepreneurs and small businesses during an address to the Greater Albuquerque Chamber of Commerce, pledging to reduce regulatory barriers while investing in education, public safety, and economic development. Drawing on her own experience […]
Deb Haaland Outlines Small Business Agenda in Address to Albuquerque Chamber
Native Vote 2026 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Deb Haaland (Laguna Pueblo) on Thursday outlined her vision for making New Mexico more welcoming to entrepreneurs and small businesses during an addre...
SEGA / Atlus hosting new Nintendo Switch 2 and Switch sale with Sonic Origins Plus, Unicorn Overlord, and more at new low prices
Fans of SEGA and Atlus can save big on Switch 2 and Switch games as part of new sale on the Nintendo eShop. Over thirty titles are included here with some familiar names in the lineup. We’ll mention that a number of games are at new low prices here such as the individual Etrian Odyssey games, Sonic Origins Plus, Unicorn...
Science Can Fully Explain Consciousness? By 326 Theories…
It’s supposed to be a given that machines or brain organoids might be conscious despite not knowing what that is or how it works — but preborn children can’t be…
CSUF Report Finds Family Businesses Drive Jobs and Revenue in Fullerton
The city of Fullerton is home to a vibrant entrepreneurial community, with family-owned businesses serving as a cornerstone of the local economy. The family business sector in Fullerton is the subject of a new report researched and published by Tim Schultz, the head of Cal State Fullerton’s Center for Family Business. Chethan Srikant, associate professor […]
After 80 Years, Mathematicians Give Famed ‘Erdős Method’ an Upgrade
Decades ago, Paul Erdős used randomness to illuminate the vast and weird world of networks. Now mathematicians are making his technique even more powerful.
iPhone 18 Pro and Foldable iPhone Tipped to Get Price Hikes Too
Apple's iPhone 18 Pro lineup and its first foldable iPhone will launch at higher prices than originally predicted this September, according to several known Chinese leakers.
Meet A Retriever—Manikanta Sirumalla, International Data Science Graduate Student And Entrepreneur - UMBC: University Of Maryland, Baltimore County
If you want help meeting a big new fitness goal, Manikanta Sirumalla may have the app for you. Manikanta came to UMBC from India as a graduate student
Astronomers trace a ghostly cosmic particle to distant ‘Shadow Blaster’ galaxy
Scientists still don’t know where ghostly particles called neutrinos originate. A distant galaxy could be a potential source.
‘Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 Pro’ needed more words to prove its power, three other flagship chips coming
Qualcomm’s Snapdragon chipset lineup is eternally confusing, with slight variations generating new names and options that aren’t all that different....
OHSU advances massive leap in medical science with cellular therapies
Patients are benefiting from CAR-T to treat neurodegenerative diseases, cancer, lupus and other autoimmune conditions.
Morgan Stanley on life after selling your business: a roadmap for entrepreneurs
Selling your company can be the financial win of a lifetime — and one of the most disorienting transitions you'll ever face.
Egypt vs Iran at World Cup 2026 – Salah, prediction, lineups, how to watch
Mohamed Salah's Egypt and Mehdi Taremi's Iran are both in the hunt for the FIFA World Cup knockouts in Group G.
County Invites Youth, Camps To Register For ‘Mind Your Business’ July 7 - Town-Crier Newspaper
Palm Beach County’s Mind Your Business Youth Entrepreneurship Forum returns on July 7, offering a full day of hands-on learning and innovation for young people across the county. Now in its seventh year, the forum is designed to inspire the next generation of creators, problem-solvers and emerging business leaders. Open to youth ages 10 to […]
Trump nominates new top deputy to RFK Jr.
Chris Klomp, a 45-year-old tech entrepreneur, gained the president's confidence when he negotiated price cuts with drug companies.
2026 World Cup Is Putting FIFA’s Rules on Political Neutrality to the Test
The World Cup is in full swing across North America, and the U.S. men’s team faces Turkey in its final group round appearance on Thursday. But behind the cheering fans and nail biting matches, FIFA's commitment to political neutrality is put to the test. Marisa sits down with Tariq Panja, global sports correspondent at The New York Times. They dig into the politics behind the games, from restrictions on Iran’s team and President Trump’s unusually close relationship with FIFA president Giann
Neuroimaging utilization in emergency departments has increased year-over-year for a decade
Researchers believe their new data could be used to better inform staffing coverage in modern radiology departments.
Santa Ana Star Casino Hotel launches app, unveils July entertainment lineup
Santa Ana Star Casino Hotel offers comedy, entertainment, perks, and more. In July, the casino has a lineup of comedians and other entertainment. July Entertainment Lineup June 26, 27 – Carme…
Local entrepreneurs, aspiring business owners gain connections, resources at 4th annual expo
Small business owners and aspiring entrepreneurs convened in Downtown Memphis to make connections and grow Thursday morning at the 2026 Small Business Expo.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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