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Kelly Burke's love for Grand Canyon leaves her mark on the landscape
A gig as a shuttle driver for Grand Canyon river rafters led Kelly Burke to a life of science and conservation.
A new force of nature is reshaping the planet, study finds
Human societies didn’t just adapt to the planet—they learned to reshape it. From early fire use to today’s global supply chains, our cultural and social innovations have unlocked extraordinary power to transform Earth and improve human life. But that progress has come with serious costs, including climate change, pollution, and mass extinction. Instead of framing this era—the Anthropocene—as pure crisis, Erle Ellis argues it’s also proof of something hopeful: when people work together, they can drive massive positive change.
Minnesota medical drivers plead for help from politicians after national business cancels contract over fraud allegations
A national medical transportation business says allegations of fraud caused it to recently cancel a 20-year contract with a local company. The company says it's not true.
Juha Miettinen dies in seven-car crash during Max Verstappen's Nurburgring race
Driver Juha Miettinen passes away following seven-car incident during Nurburgring race, which has received wide interest due to Max Verstappens participation; Formula 1 returns with a Sprint weekend in Miami on May 1-3, live on Sky Sports F1
AMC Entertainment price target raised to $2 from $1.50 at B. Riley
B. Riley raised the firm’s price target on AMC Entertainment (AMC) to $2 from $1.50 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Industry box office revenue rose 22% year over year in the period, outperforming expectations and driven by strong releases in March, particularly Project Hail Mary, alongside solid contributions from Scream 7 and Hoppers, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Looking ahead to Q2, box office is expected to grow slightly, with gains in June offset by weaker April
Business notes: Milton-Freewater’s Drive-In theater reopens for the season
Spring is here. And with that comes outdoor movies at the M-F Drive-In.
Nvidia's once-tight bond with gamers is cracking over AI, 'and that breaks my heart'
Gamers once helped save Nvidia from bankruptcy. Now they feel left behind as the memory crunch drives focus to AI chips and DLSS 5 disrupts game design.
Uber, Lyft driver: Gas prices are affecting which trips I take
An Uber and Lyft driver says high gas prices are changing how he drives and which trips he accepts.
Russia Signals Pullback in Business Support as Budget Strains Mount
Russia’s government warned it will scale back new support for businesses as mounting fiscal pressures limit its ability to sustain the stimulus that helped drive recent economic growth, Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said Friday.
San Francisco drivers, businesses prep for weekend closure of I-80 Bay Bridge approach
Report: Colorado incentives drive 143 business expansions and 42,000 jobs
Colorado's incentive programs helped attract 143 companies, creating over 42,000 jobs and $4.8 billion in wages, boosting the state's economy.
Hospitals Help: Bronson Drives Change in Maternal and Infant Health
From prenatal care and labor and delivery to neonatal intensive care and postpartum follow-up, Bronson Healthcare plays a critical role in influencing health outcomes for mothers and babies across Southwest Michigan. In celebrating a historic reduction in Black infant mortality across Kalamazoo County, Bronson acknowledged that creating change requires shared…
Location-Based Entertainment Market Analysis Report 2026: $14.35 Bn Opportunities, Trends, Competitive Landscape, Strategies, and Forecasts, 2020-2025, 2025-2030F, 2035F
The location-based entertainment market offers opportunities in themed venues, digital gaming experiences, immersive VR/AR attractions, and interactive content. Growth is driven by rising consumer spending, technological innovations, and increased global tourism, with Asia-Pacific poised for rapid expansion. Location-Based Entertainment Market Location-Based Entertainment Market Dublin, April 17, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The "Location-Based Entertainment Market Report 2026" has been added to Res
Armed carjacker drives stolen Lexus into San Jose business: police
(KRON) — A man armed with a box cutter forcibly stole a car in East San Jose on Thursday and then drove it directly into a dental office, according to the San Jose Police Department. The inci…
Sports Illustrated Resorts brand expands to Louisiana college town
Developers will convert a Hilton hotel in Baton Rouge under the lifestyle brand amid Sports Illustrated Resorts’ expansion into premier sports-driven college and university markets.
In-House Counsel Need ‘T-Shaped’ Skills to Be a Business Leader
In-house counsel need not only deep legal skill but also business acumen and data literacy to help drive business growth, manage risk proactively, and create competitive advantage.
Climate Knowledge Linked to Student Stress
A new study from Quinnipiac University finds that greater awareness of climate change affects students’ mental health—but also drives them to rethink habits and career paths.
Duffy withholds federal funding from New York over immigrant trucker licenses dispute
New York will lose more than $73.5 million in federal money because the Transportation Department said Thursday that state has refused to revoke nearly 33,000 questionable commercial driver's licenses for immigrants since an audit uncovered problems last year.
Colorado’s $46.8 billion budget nears finish line
The Colorado Senate on Thursday voted largely along party lines to approve $46.8 billion in spending for the next state budget. The spending plan is bigger than what legislators originally approved for the current fiscal year’s budget, driven by increases in Medicaid costs. The proposal saw changes from a dozen amendments during debate Wednesday, but […]
NASCAR Accused Of 'Losing The South' By Former Driver
A five-time NASCAR Cup Series winner made it abundantly clear this week that he's not pleased with the current product. This past Sunday's race at Bristol Motor Speedway averaged 1.945 million viewers on FS1, per Nielsen's data. That’s down 5% from last year, which would make it the least-watched ...
RFK Jr.'s peptide policy could boost Hims & Hers as its GLP-1 business evolves
Hims may have an chance to grow peptides business as a potential revenue driver, with FDA review in 2026 shaping the opportunity.
Chargé Arnold Speech - Implementation Plan of Five-Year Health MOU - U.S. Embassy in Madagascar
Chargée d’Affaires Stephanie Arnold's Speech Discussion on the implementation plan for the five-year health Memorandum of Understanding (…) Colleagues, and honored guests, Good morning, and welcome to the United States Embassy. It is a pleasure to host you today for the second day of this important workshop to discuss the implementation of our bilateral health Memorandum of Understanding on U.S. Government health activities in Madagascar, made possible through the Trump Administration’s America First Global Health Strategy. Today’s focus— discussing a shared vision and developing a preliminary draft for the health MOU Implementation Plan and the terms of reference for the two committees that will steer its implementation—is a decisive step in moving from commitments on paper to concrete action over the next five years. On December 22, 2025, the Governments of Madagascar and the United States signed a five-year bilateral health MOU, with a financial intention of approximately 554 billion Ariary from the United States and This jointly decided MOU intends to strengthen Madagascar’s health system, support lifesaving services, and improve disease prevention and response that matter to both our countries’ health security. For the United States, this means detecting and containing infectious disease outbreaks including malaria, polio, and emerging health threats before they can reach American shores through international travel and trade, protecting American families while reducing the need for costly domestic emergency responses Yesterday, technical experts from the Ministry of Public Health and the U.S. Government worked in thematic groups to draft a preliminary Implementation Plan. Today, your task is to review the shared vision and preliminary draft MOU implementation plan, and the proposed terms of reference for the Joint Steering Committee and the Operational Committee that will guide its implementation. These committees are not just administrative structures. They are the mechanisms that will ensure clear roles and responsibilities, regular dialogue between our two governments, consistent monitoring of progress, and real accountability for the results that will directly benefit the lives of Malagasy citizens. They will also track performance against the benchmarks we have jointly established, which will guide the continuation of U.S. support over the five-year period . Continued U.S. support will be contingent on meeting these performance benchmarks. This ensures accountability to both American and Malagasy taxpayers and guarantees that our partnership delivers measurable results. America First Foreign Assistance means that U.S. support must be strategic, results-driven, and accountable to our taxpayers. It also means we aim to support greater self-reliance and reduced long-term dependence on foreign assistance, with systems that are increasingly financed and led by Madagascar itself. This approach benefits both our nations: Madagascar gains sustainable health capacity, while the United States advances our health security interests and creates opportunities for American health innovations and companies to support Madagascar’s development. In that spirit, I want to recognize the presence of the Ministry’s leadership and the technical directors and program heads responsible for surveillance, basic health services, family health, immunization, countering malaria, laboratories, medicines, and health information systems. Your leadership and technical expertise are essential if this bilateral health MOU is to translate into real and lasting improvements for people in need across the country. Let me emphasize how important collaboration is to the United States in this effort. We can bring American resources, technical expertise, and tools. But this bilateral health MOU can only succeed if it reflects Madagascar’s priorities and if Malagasy institutions lead and maintain its implementation. We see this not as a U.S. project, but as a joint framework under Malagasy leadership, with U.S. support. That is why we are genuinely pleased to host this event here at the Embassy. Opening our doors to you today symbolizes our commitment to work side by side and to remain transparent about how we use U.S. resources in support of Madagascar’s health system. In closing, thank you for your time and your partnership. We are very happy to welcome you here and proud to accompany Madagascar in this next step of implementation planning for our bilateral health MOU. I wish you a productive and focused session. The work you do today will shape how our two governments cooperate on health in the years ahead; it will influence the quality and reliability of health services that Malagasy communities receive; and, most importantly, it will help protect both our nations from infectious disease threats while building Madagascar’s capacity for long-term health system sustainability. Thank you.
Artificial intelligence is reshaping environmental science into a predictive and precision-driven discipline
Artificial intelligence is rapidly transforming how scientists study and protect the environment, shifting the field from traditional observation toward predictive, data-driven discovery. A new perspective article highlights how emerging AI technologies are enabling a fundamental change in environmental research, opening the door to faster, smarter, and more integrated solutions to global challenges.
Mount Sinai Health System and SOPHiA GENETICS Announce Collaboration to Advance Precision Cancer Care from AACR 2026
/PRNewswire/ -- SOPHiA GENETICS (NASDAQ: SOPH), a global leader in AI-driven precision medicine, today announced that the Mount Sinai Health System, one of the...
United States and Madagascar Discuss Five-Year Health MOU Implementation Plan - U.S. Embassy in Madagascar
United States and Madagascar Discuss Five-Year Health MOU Implementation Plan The United States and Madagascar’s Ministry of Public Health are in the process of developing a plan for implementing the U.S.-Madagascar five-year Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on health cooperation, signed under the Trump Administration’s America First Global Health Strategy. The two-day workshop, at the U.S. Embassy in Antananarivo, brought together technical experts and senior leadership from the Malagasy and U.S. governments to discuss a shared vision through a preliminary draft MOU Implementation Plan and to establish the joint governance structures that will guide U.S. foreign assistance in health over the next five years. The jointly decided bilateral health MOU, signed on December 22, 2025, builds on decades of U.S. global health assistance to Madagascar. The health MOU involves the U.S.’s plans, working with Congress, to provide approximately $134 million (over 554 billion Ariary) and a Malagasy commitment of $41 million (over 169 billion Ariary). It aims to strengthen Madagascar’s health system, improve disease prevention and response, and support services that address health security concerns for both countries, including malaria, maternal and child health, polio, and global health security issues that could reach U.S. shores if not contained at their source. During the recent workshop, technical staff from the Ministry of Public Health and the U.S. Government health team worked in thematic groups to draft detailed implementation plans for the five-year MOU period. On the second day, U.S. Chargé d’Affaires Stephanie Arnold and Ministry of Public Health and Economic and Finance Ministry leadership joined the technical teams to discuss plans and proposed terms of reference for two committees: a Joint Steering Committee and an Operational Committee. These structures will ensure clear roles and responsibilities, regular dialogue between the two governments, consistent monitoring of progress, and accountability for results. The framework includes performance benchmarks that will guide continued U.S. support and track Madagascar’s progress toward self-reliance. “We see this not as a U.S. project, but as a joint framework under Malagasy leadership, with U.S. support,” said U.S. Chargé d’Affaires Stephanie Arnold during the workshop’s opening session. The approach reflects U.S. foreign assistance principles that emphasize strategic, results-driven support that advances American interests while helping recipient countries build sustainable health systems. The framework is designed to build systems that Madagascar will increasingly finance and lead itself, reducing long-term dependence on foreign assistance.
Entertainment AR and VR System on a Chip (SoC) Market Outlook, 2026-2030 & 2035 - Apple, Samsung Electronics, and Meta Platforms Lead the $3.8 Billion Industry
The market is poised for growth driven by immersive gaming demand, expanding mixed reality applications, and AR adoption Entertainment Augmented Reality (AR) and Virtual Reality (VR) System on a Chip (SoC) Market Entertainment Augmented Reality (AR) and Virtual Reality (VR) System on a Chip (SoC) Market Dublin, April 16, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The "Entertainment Augmented Reality (AR) and Virtual Reality (VR) System on a Chip (SoC) Market Report 2026" has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com's
Broker Marsh's profit rises on strong risk and insurance business
Insurance broker Marsh reported a rise in first-quarter adjusted profit on Thursday, driven by robust results in its risk and insurance services unit.
How much do gig workers make? Uber, DoorDash, Taskrabbit breakdown
Gig workers — from Uber drivers to Taskrabbit handymen — told us how much they earned in 2025. For some, it was a side hustle, while others worked full-time.
The 2026 International Academicians Hong Kong Forum Held in Hong Kong, Focusing on AI-Driven Innovation in Health and Higher Education
The 2026 International Academicians Hong Kong Forum, jointly organised by the International Alliance of Academicians (IAA) and the Hong Kong Association of Overseas-Returned Scholars (HKAORS), was successfully held in Hong Kong on April 14. As one of the major events of the Business of Innovation and Technology Week 2026, the Forum focused on two core themes: "Aging and Chronic Disease Management: Challenges and Innovations" and "AI and Innovation in Higher Education." It brought together more t
AMD Linux Graphics Driver Introducing "Power Module" To Better Match Windows Behavior
With the set of today's AMDGPU kernel graphics driver Display Core (DC) patches is a rather curious addition with wiring up the Linux code to a 'power module' that looks like it will better match Microsoft Windows behavior with the AMD Radeon driver around display-related power savings features.
Indigenous Leadership for Health: Virtual Preparatory Webinar to UNPFII 2026
English - French - Portuguese - Spanish - Russian Indigenous Peoples have the right to the highest attainable standard of physical and mental health. WHO invites you to join Indigenous Leadership for Health, a virtual preparatory webinar to the 25th Session of the UN Permanent Forum on Indigenous Issues (UNPFII 2026), to be held on Thursday, 16 April 2026, from 13:30 to 16:00 CEST, via Zoom. Interpretation will be available in English, French, Portuguese, Russian, and Spanish.This event brings together Indigenous leaders working on health to help shape the forthcoming WHO Global Plan of Action on the Health of Indigenous Peoples (GPoA). It is co-organized by WHO, the Government of Brazil, the Government of the Philippines, and the Johns Hopkins Center for Indigenous Health.The webinar will be divided into two parts, each with a corresponding objective:Part I – Contents of the draft Global Plan of Action. Part I's objective is to provide an update on the process for development of the Global Plan of Action on the Health of Indigenous Peoples, to share important lessons learnt from previous work and inputs received thus far, and to invite participants to send written inputs to the Plan. The linkages to the health topics to be discussed at the forthcoming UNPFII will also be highlighted.Part II – Panel on Indigenous Leadership for Health. Part II's objective is to highlight Indigenous leadership, knowledge systems, and community-driven approaches that contribute to improving the health and well-being of Indigenous Peoples, through the sharing of select country and regional examples.Registration is free and open to all. Register hereWe encourage all Indigenous organizations, communities, partners, and individuals to join us and contribute to this important global process.
Houston midwife says access to care, systemic racism drive Black maternal deaths; urges prenatal visits
A certified nurse midwife with Ben Taub Hospital says barriers to basic health care along with systemic racism continue to fuel disproportionate maternal deaths among Black women in Harris County, even as Houston sits in the shadow of one of the world’s largest medical centers.
Scientists solve 100-year-old mystery behind rubber that powers modern life
Every time you drive, board a plane or water your lawn, you're relying on a material that has quietly powered modern life for nearly a century—reinforced rubber. It's in car and aircraft tires, industrial ...
Amazon buys former Hermon drive-in
Tax records show the approximately 20-acre property was purchased by Amazon for $1.9 million, more than three times the fair market value. Amazon has already opened a shipping hub in Caribou, with plans for more in Gorham and Waterville.
On this Jackie Robinson Day, reject this lie Major League Baseball tells about itself
Kevin B. Blackistone: Sports are not a driver of social change
UCF Receives $50 Million Gift to Establish the Barry S. Miller College of Business
The largest gift in university history positions UCF to lead the future of technology-driven business education.
Nothing Warp is an AirDrop stopgap that uses your Google Drive, and I don’t get it [Gallery]
In lieu of AirDrop over Quick Share support, Nothing is today launching “Nothing Warp,” a new app + browser extension...
Public Health Students Present Research at Health Equity Symposium - University of New Haven
University of New Haven MPH candidates showcased community-centered and data-driven research at UConn’s Health Equity Symposium. Their work highlights how lived experiences and social determinants shape health outcomes.
Future Energy, Renewable Energy, Technology, InCites use case, web of science use case, research analytics
Perovskite solar cells are emerging as a transformative next-generation energy technology driven by rapid efficiency gains and global research competition. Based on a collaborative analysis between Sungkyunkwan University and Clarivate using Web of Science and InCites, this blog explores key research trends, leading countries and scholars, and the future trajectory of perovskite solar cells toward sustainable energy innovation.
China’s Next Megaprojects Are Built for Big Science
Data shows how China’s infrastructure drive is beginning to include new scientific instruments built to explore the frontiers of physics, astronomy, and energy.
Ocean eddies are amplifying climate extremes in coastal seas, study finds
New research reveals a powerful yet overlooked driver of climate change: Intensifying ocean eddies.
Orioles manager Craig Albernaz has broken jaw, 7 facial fractures after getting hit by Jeremiah Jackson line drive
Gov. DeSantis says Legislature should drive redistricting, acknowledges potential delays in mapmaking
'You've got to get it done probably within the next couple of weeks.'
Sergio Garcia apologizes for slamming club, breaking driver in Masters meltdown: 'I regret the way I acted'
Dr. Laura Riley to Unify Women’s Health Care Across Weill Cornell in New Role
As executive director for women’s health, a role that complements her position leading obstetrics and gynecology, Dr. Riley will unify, coordinate and drive new paradigms for women’s health care across medical specialties.
New investigative newsroom launches at ASU's Howard Center for Investigative Journalism
A new investigative newsroom focusing on accountability reporting, innovation and experimentation with AI-driven tools launches today at the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication as part of the Howard Center for Investigative Journalism.The Beam is a multimedia newsroom that produces in-depth, high-impact reporting on issues that matter to Arizona communities, while building modern tools for the public to engage directly with the decision-makers shaping their lives.
Oil Price Spike Erodes Small Business Confidence, NFIB Says
Small business optimism dipped below its 52-year average for the first time in a year in March, driven by the Iran war and the subsequent surge in oil
The Economic Case for Health
The Economic Case for Health shows how better health supports jobs, boosts productivity and drives growth — making it a smart investment for Kansas’ economy.
How a Florida State University student entrepreneur is building a bakery business for good
A Florida State University student in the Jim Moran College of Entrepreneurship is turning a lifelong health challenge into a purpose-driven business that
IBM goes on the road to find next wave of innovation in sports
The IBM Sports Tech Startup Challenge is a global effort to spotlight AI-driven startups with potential to redefine the sports industry.
A Look At Caesars Entertainment (CZR) Valuation After Its Mixed Earnings-Driven Share Price Move
Caesars Entertainment (CZR) is back in focus after its latest earnings report, where revenue topped analyst forecasts while adjusted operating income and EPS came in below expectations, yet the share price moved higher. See our latest analysis for Caesars Entertainment. The latest move higher in Caesars Entertainment's share price comes after its earnings release, with the stock showing a 13.54% year to date share price return while the 5 year total shareholder return is still down 69.86%...
District 2 Requests Renaming of Splashtown Drive
A Council Consideration Request was filed to rename the street to Willie Mitchell Drive.
From The Sports Desk: Rory’s Repeat
WNBA draft night, league free agency hits overdrive.
Wall Street still loves streaming, but are its affections well placed?
While streaming continues to drive media stocks, especially around quarterly earnings, it's not clear when it will start driving profits for smaller players.
Walmsley secures 'last-minute' drive for 2026 season
Racing driver Lydia Walmsley says it is a "miracle" that she will be on the grid this year after an 11th hour deal with a new team.
Windows 11 is finally removing the 32GB FAT32 capacity limit
Windows 11 Insider builds now let you format drives up to 2TB in FAT32 via Command Prompt, ending a decades-old arbitrary limit.
Review: Pragmata (Switch 2) - A Dazzling Puzzle-Shooter Driven By A Heartfelt Friendship
Hack the Moon!
Internal OpenAI memo touts Amazon partnership as key driver of enterprise business
CNBC's Kate Rooney reports on an internal OpenAI memo that touts its Amazon partnership as a key driver of its enterprise business.
First-Class Seats Drive Airline Profits. It Wasn’t Always This Way.
Airlines have become adept at selling increasingly nice seats to travelers, and customers have grown much more willing to pay for them.
South Business Drive Reconstruction to Begin on Wednesday
Things are about to get a bit more complicated on Sheboygan's south side as reconstruction of South Business D...
SCORE Offers Free Business Mentoring Sessions
Local entrepreneurs and small business owners in Pasadena have a valuable resource at their fingertips with the ongoing SCORE One-on-One Mentoring Sessions. These free and confidential appointments provide individuals with expert guidance on starting, running, or growing a small business, courtesy of SCORE, the nation’s largest network of volunteer business mentors. The sessions are designed to offer personalized advice and strategic insights from experienced professionals. SCORE, which stands for Service Corps of Retired Executives, is a non-profit organization and a key resource partner of the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA). Its mission is to foster vibrant small business communities through dedicated mentoring and education. The organization comprises a network of seasoned business owners and executives who generously volunteer their time to support the next generation of entrepreneurs. As SCORE states, their mentoring is a “free, confidential service for anyone starting, running, or growing a U.S.-based small business.” These one-hour mentoring sessions are held every other Tuesday from 1 to 5 p.m. at two branches of the Pasadena Public Library: the Lamanda Park Branch Library and the Santa Catalina Branch Library. Appointments can be conveniently reserved up to 14 days in advance, ensuring that individuals can schedule a time that best suits their needs. This recurring service underscores SCORE’s commitment to continuous support for the local business community, helping them to plan, launch, and grow successfully. Need to Know: The SCORE One-on-One Mentoring Session offers free business guidance. These one-hour appointments are available every other Tuesday from 1 to 5 p.m. at the Pasadena Public Library’s Lamanda Park Branch (140 S Altadena Drive, Pasadena, CA 91107) and Santa Catalina Branch (999 E Washington Blvd., Pasadena, CA 91104). The service is free. For more information or to book an appointment, visit [https://www.score.org/].
Tractor-trailer careens into building in Clifton, NJ
The big rig driver careened into Limo Ride, a business along Kensington Avenue and Route 3, just before 2:30 a.m.
Seth Cohen on Accelerating AI Adoption for Lasting Business Impact
P&G’s Chief Information Officer Seth Cohen took the stage at Human[X] to share how companies can leverage AI to drive real, measurable impact across their business.
Extra half-mile added to some runner’s course during Covenant Health Knoxville Marathon
The email said the lead vehicle took participants approximately a half mile longer than the advertised distance at the turnaround on Neyland Drive.
Bay Area business owner re-dumps mountain of trash on customer driveway after broken promises on payment. Was he right?
This dumpster dispute really dumped things on a whole new level turning one missed payment into a trashy pile of fines, fees and chaos.
Masters 2026: Sergio Garcia gets warning after going nuclear on tee box, breaking driver and ending up carrying Jon Rahm's bag
Sergio Garcia was given a warning just two holes after he erupted on Sunday morning.
Green Powered Challenge: Solar Powered Pi Hosts Websites In RAM
If you started with computers early enough, you’ll remember the importance of the RAMdisk concept: without a hard drive and with floppies slow and swapping constantly, everything had to live …
Taco Bell's Golden Bell awards are key to its company growth
Taco Bell's annual management retreat is more than recognition for its top-performing staff — it's a key driver of growth and staff retention.
Multiple people injured after mass shooting at New Jersey Chick-fil-A: report
Authorities are investigating a mass shooting at a Chick-fil-A restaurant in Union, New Jersey.
110,000-year-old discovery rewrites human history: Neanderthals and Homo sapiens worked together
The first-ever published research on Tinshemet Cave reveals that Neanderthals and Homo sapiens in the mid-Middle Paleolithic Levant not only coexisted but actively interacted, sharing technology, lifestyles, and burial customs. These interactions fostered cultural exchange, social complexity, and behavioral innovations, such as formal burial practices and the symbolic use of ochre for decoration. The findings suggest that human connections, rather than isolation, were key drivers of technological and cultural advancements, highlighting the Levant as a crucial crossroads in early human history.
'Not about politics': Miami Beach unveils repurposed rainbow crosswalk installation
Pride is back on display in Miami Beach, as city leaders unveiled a new installation repurposing the bricks from the former Ocean Drive rainbow crosswalk.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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