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Entertainment district approved for downtown Atlanta
The Atlanta City Council passed an ordinance creating a public World Cup Entertainment District downtown, but officials excluded a provision that would have allowed fans to have open containers.
A ‘burgeoning black market’, inflated dosing and the over-judicialization of health care: reporters around the world tell stories about Keytruda
In a yearlong investigation led by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists, reporters from more than 37 countries found the cancer drug’s high price impacts patients and health systems differently.
J.P. Morgan lifts S&P 500 year-end target to 7,600 on AI-driven earnings
J.P. Morgan on Tuesday raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 index to 7,600, citing AI and tech-driven earnings, just weeks after lowering its forecast, with a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran aiding sentiment.
Democrat Jacqueline Coleman announces 2027 run for Kentucky governor: 'people over politics'
By McKenna Horsley Kentucky Lantern reporter Standing in front of the Hall of Governors at the Kentucky Historical Society, Democratic Kentucky Lt. Gov. Jacqueline Coleman announced her 2027 run for governor Monday morning. The 43-year-old, who is a former teacher, assistant principal and basketball coach, is making public education a cornerstone of her campaign. Coleman...
Zombie Magic, old LeBron, Wemby’s debut & more thoughts on every NBA Playoff series + Warriors drama & LaMelo’s future with Jason Timpf, Kelly Iko & Noa Dalzell
President Trump’s Landmark Order Advances Breakthrough Mental Health Treatments — Delivering New Hope to Veterans
This weekend, President Donald J. Trump signed a groundbreaking Executive Order accelerating research and improving access to psychedelic drugs as
A.J. Brown reportedly not expected to attend Eagles' voluntary offseason workouts amid trade speculation
NFL Draft landing spots for the top 10 QBs, plus what every team should do in the draft and A.J. Brown rumors
The Pick Six newsletter goes all-in on 2026 NFL Draft buzz, mock drafts and trade rumors
Reauthorization of Small Business Innovation Research and Technology T
Following President Donald J. Trump signing into law the Small Business Innovation and Economic Security Act, the War Department is immediately advancing with a redesigned and more focused initiative
Exclusive | Adobe Unveils Agents for Businesses Amid Threat of AI Disruption
The software maker’s new AI agents are aimed at getting ahead of the risk of artificial intelligence to its business.
Exclusive | Adobe Unveils Agents for Businesses Amid Threat of AI Disruption
The software maker’s new AI agents are aimed at getting ahead of the risk of artificial intelligence to its business.
A.J. Brown likely to be traded to Patriots
A new report from Adam Schefter has Brown on the move.
Gotham FC to Host Girls in Sports Day Presented by Grüns, Highlighting the Future of the Game
JERSEY CITY, N.J. (April 20, 2026) – Gotham FC is set to host Girls in Sports Day presented by Grüns at Sports Illustrated Stadium, a match dedicated to celebrating the next generation of athletes and
2026 NFL Draft: Here's who could be on move before and afterward, including Eagles' A.J. Brown and Steelers' edge duo
Gulf Breeze beach, boys volleyball chase district titles
Beach and boys volleyball district tournaments begin this week, with both Gulf Breeze teams eyeing district titles.
Politicians are using low teen birth rates to further restrict access to birth control, abortion
“Both narratives — that teen birth rates are too high or too low — problematize teen pregnancy and childbearing,” writes Riley J. Steiner.
Ausar Thompson, J.B. Bickerstaff lead Detroit Pistons award finalists
Pistons forward Ausar Thompson, center Jalen Duren and guard Duncan Robinson were all named finalists for NBA end-of-season awards on Sunday.
Bone-Marrow Transplants: The Radical Cancer Science That Saved My Life
The research on bone-marrow transplantation mirrors the arc of many medical advancements. I was one of the early beneficiaries.
Ryan Reynolds on Business Ventures, Blake Lively and ‘Deadpool’
In part one of this Sunday Sitdown Live, Ryan Reynolds joins Willie Geist in front of a packed crowd to discuss the rapid rise of Wrexham A.F.C., his many business ventures like his Maximum Effort, the young audience he’s found at home for his “Deadpool” franchise and what’s next for the superhero. Reynolds also shares support for his wife Blake Lively and reveals how he is feeling about his upcoming 50th birthday milestone. (Sponsored by More to Parkinson’s and brought to you by Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc. Venue sponsored by City Winery)
Lakefront N.J. home is a steal for $550,000. Here’s why.
It's listed for less than the statewide median sales price of $570,000.
Boston pub plans outdoor venue on Cape Cod. What to know about Backyard by Foley's.
Backyard by Foley's will be a large entertainment venue, run by the family behind J.J. Foleys in Boston's South End. Here's what we know.
Behind Trump’s Public Bravado on the War, He Grapples With His Own Fears
The president’s impulsive style has never been tested in a sustained military conflict, and he’s been ruminating on Jimmy Carter’s failure in Iran.
Sunday Preview – Yarrick returns to Armageddon
See what’s coming up for pre-order next week!
Eagle man sentenced for defrauding Garden City business, IRS
EAGLE (Idaho Statesman) — An Eagle man has been sentenced to 52 months in federal prison on embezzlement and tax fraud charges, according to the United States Attorney’s Office for the District of Idaho. Miles J. Elletson, 55, pleaded guilty to wire fraud and filing false tax returns, defrauding Alloway Electric, a contracting company in […]
Former Arkansas basketball guard D.J. Wagner commits to Maryland
Wagner, who announced he was entering the portal on April 6, averaged 7.4 points and 2.4 assists per game in his junior season.
Losing Health Insurance? Here Are Ways to Cut Medical Bills
With increasing numbers of Americans forgoing health insurance because of cost, other services provide ways to lower bills.
Catholics in Trump Administration Are Stuck Amid Pope Leo XIV Attacks
Donald Trump's attacks on Pope Leo XIV are making J.D. Vance and Catholics choose between their religion and their fealty to the president.
Republican Nerves Are Fraying Ahead of Midterm Elections
High gasoline prices, the war in Iran and recent Democratic victories are fueling the angst.
Longtime business leader Jim Schellinger leaves Indy's economic development agency
Indy Economic Development Inc. said his retirement, announced late Friday, is effective immediately. No additional information about his departure was provided.
Exclusive | Ilhan Omar Says She Isn’t a Multimillionaire, Blames Accounting Error
The Minnesota Democratic congresswoman, facing potential investigations pushed by President Trump and House Republicans, said she isn’t as wealthy as documents she previously submitted to Congress suggest.
Exclusive | White House Pushes for Flavored Vapes Blocked By FDA Head
The FDA commissioner blocked new flavors like mango and blueberry despite scientific staff signoff.
Doc Rivers indicates his NBA coaching career is over after end of Bucks tenure: 'I'm done'
Richmond Hill Fire Department’s Spring Fling returns with duck race, live entertainment and family fun
The 8th annual event at J.F. Gregory Park will feature food trucks, vendors, a classic car show and a charity duck race supporting local families in need.
Ossium Health aims to revolutionize role of bone marrow banks
The company has a goal to build a massive bank of bone marrow from deceased organ donors to treat patients with blood cancers and improve organ transplantations.
‘For All Mankind’ Boss Explains A.J. Jarrett’s ‘Comeback’ Story
Executive producer Matt Wolpert also talked about casting the perfect Gordo and Tracy look-alike.
SLED: Upstate man charged with selling alcohol without permit at Myrtle Beach business
Officials said Dukes was booked in the J. Reuben Long Detention Center in Horry County.
Gwyneth Paltrow Is Bringing Her Takeout Business to New York City
Goop Kitchen says its top locations make $20,000 a day each. This month, the delivery and pickup company is going bicoastal.
From Endless Frontier to Enemy of the People: The Assault on Public Science
A review of Michael E. Mann & Peter J. Hotez, “Science Under Siege: How to Fight the Five Most Powerful Forces That Threaten Our World” (Public Affairs, 2025)
NFL re-draft lands Falcons Steelers superstar T.J. Watt
Atlanta gets a massive upgrade over one of their biggest blunders on the edge in this re-draft.
Fed Beige Book Points to Uncertainty and Increased Business Costs - Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council
by Raymond J. Keating – The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book take on the economy pointed to sluggishness and uncertainty, with the Iran war naturally coming into the equation. Specifically, it was reported, “Overall economic activity increased at a slight to modest pace in eight of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts, while two Districts […]
Ford Recalls Up to 1.39 Million F-150s
Ford is recalling up to 1.39 million F-150 pick-ups over the risk of unexpected downshifting that can lead to a loss of vehicle control.
U.S. Steel to restart Gary Tin Mill, add 225 jobs
The restart aims to position the steelmaker to provide customers with greater access to American-made tin mill products.
Republicans’ Anxiety Over Iran War Grows But Vote Against Curbing Trump’s Powers
GOP lawmakers want a quick to end to the fighting, but declined to vote to curb President Trump’s powers.
Netflix Chair Reed Hastings to Leave Board in June
Co-founder won’t stand for re-election to the board, Netflix said in first earnings report since pulling out of the Warner Discovery bid.
Cuba Tried to Deliver Secret Letter Directly to Trump Via a Cuban Businessman
Analysts saw the missive as an attempt to go around Secretary of State Marco Rubio, though it’s unclear whether the message reached the president
Magic Johnson's transition from basketball to business
NBA icon Magic Johnson delivered a high-energy, deeply personal talk at Wake Forest University’s Face-to-Face Speaker Forum on Tuesday night, shifting seamlessly from storytelling to a masterclass in business, discipline and community impact. Interviewed by college basketball commentator Jay Bilas, Johnson commanded the stage — and eventually the aisles — blending humor, sermon-like energy and […]
Trump administration live updates: N.J. voters head to the polls for special House election
Get live updates and the latest news on the Trump administration as New Jersey voters head to the polls for special election to fill New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill's former House seat and the House votes on protections from deportation for Haitian immigrants.
What Rochester's small business owners miss by separating strategy, wealth
Commentary: Nicole Newman highlights how small business owners in Rochester often separate business strategy from wealth planning, limiting long-term financial flexibility.
Enquirer names winter nominees for 2026 High School Sports Awards
The Enquirer's annual Cincinnati High School Sports Awards live show is in the planning stages. Here are the winter sports nominees for 2026.
Kansas Transfer Jamari McDowell Commits to Wake Forest
The Deacs have their 3rd addition of the portal with Kansas Jayhawk guard Jamari McDowell. McDowell is a 6-5 redshirt sophomore who averaged 3.3 points and 1.1 assists in 17 minutes per game for the Jayhawks this season. After redshirting in the 2024-25 season due to injury, McDowell was the 6th man for Kansas this […]
Steven Stamkos on Nashville Predators missing playoffs again
Steven Stamkos on Nashville Predators missing playoffs again
Attica Lumber celebrates a century of business
By Brianna Smith What started in 1925 with R.F. Cook’s passion for lumber and buildings has grown into a fourth-generation family business celebrating 100 years of service in Attica. Founded in the years following World War I, Attica Lumber has remained rooted in the same principles through ge
PNC Gives Update on Private Business Lender Exposure
That's PNC Financial's exposure to private business lenders, including private-credit funds. The bank said that $7 billion of that figure is in the form of loans to private-credit providers, a focus of jittery investors in recent months. The remainder, $26 billion, is in the form of trade receivabl
US Soccer Federation Sporting Director Matt Crocker resigns
A leadership shake up just months before the World Cup
Opinion | We Can Fix Healthcare Prices With Incentives
Americans don’t need less care; they need a system that prices care more rationally.
Chad J. Thompson
Chad J. Thompson has joined Nicolaides Fink Thorpe Michaelides Sullivan LLP as chief operating officer.
Is Swalwell the Straw That Broke Congress’s Back? | WSJ Politics Newsletter for April 15
Plus, two of Jeanine Pirro’s deputies make a surprise visit to the Fed’s headquarters-renovation construction site
The Unlikely Team That Ended One of the Longest Playoff Droughts in Sports
Despite starting the season at the bottom of the NHL standings, the reinvigorated Buffalo Sabres are heading to the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time since 2011.
Canadiens Highlights: Regular Season Comes To A Close
The Montreal Canadiens faced the Philadelphia Flyers on Tuesday night, marking the final game of the regular season for both […]
Wynwood business district employee accused of corruption
The former interim director of the Wynwood Business Improvement District is facing more than two dozen counts of grand theft and a charge of organized fraud.
How Canada’s Carney Used His Political Savvy to Win a Majority
In six months, the prime minister orchestrated the defection of five lawmakers to his side and won a special election.
Eagles leak wild theory that could signal A.J. Brown trade
A.J. Brown trade rumors are not going away
Lebanon’s Death Toll Tops 2,100, Health Ministry Data Show
Lebanon’s health ministry said Tuesday that 2,124 people have been killed and nearly 7,000 wounded since the latest round of fighting between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah militants. The Lebanese authorities said the fatalities include 1,702 men, 254 women and 168 children.
J.P. Morgan Sees Resiliency in U.S. Economy Despite Iran War
The nation’s largest bank said it earned record trading profits in the first quarter but tempered expectations overall for its business.
GoPro's Mission 1 offers 8K 60p video and interchangeable lenses
DJI is fighting back against rivals with a new line of cameras called Mission 1, designed to greatly improve video quality over the Hero 13 cameras.
What Trump’s Deleted Social-Media Post Says About 2026 | WSJ Politics Newsletter for April 14
Plus, Reps. Eric Swalwell and Tony Gonzales say they plan to leave Congress in the wake of sexual-misconduct allegations
Asking Eric: ‘Extremely online’ girlfriend shares too much
My friend sent me some of the links ... it wasn’t bad stuff, per se. Just her talking about going out to dinner with me or complaining about how I sleep ...
Conagra’s new CEO faces a pricing bind with no clear fix
John Brase inherits a company squeezed by an industry-wide struggle to win back cost-conscious consumers — a force J.M. Smucker contended with before cutting his job.
Ending Relationships Over Politics Has Become Boring
We all need to calm down and relearn how to agree to disagree.
Philippine president dispels rumors of failing health
Philippine president dispels rumors of failing health
WNBA Draft winners and losers: A star-studded crowd, the Valkyries' Flau'jae fumble, GOATs and more
Canada’s Carney Secures Majority Mandate After Electoral Wins, Political Defections
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has secured a majority government, cementing his hold on power after electoral victories Monday night and defections to his Liberal Party caucus over the past six months.
Pope Leo’s resolute response to Trump attack reveals a man of God, not politics
Pope Leo XIV does not claim to direct political outcomes. He claims the right, and the duty, to judge them.
Eliot Wolf: 'Business as usual' foe Patriots before NFL Draft
There were no updates on two popular offseason topics: the looming extension for cornerback Christian Gonzalez and the pursuit of Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown.
Diana Taurasi, J.J. Hardy among seven Arizona Sports Hall of Fame inductees
Diana Taurasi, J.J. Hardy and Frank Busch were among seven inductees to the Arizona Sports Hall of Fame in recognition of their impact on Arizona’s sports legacy.
Sharks Mic Check: Trailer Park Sports Network
Brodie Brazil gives Will Stephens from Trailer Park Sports Network a tour of SAP Center during his first visit to the Tank.
Insurers Stand to Gain Big Business From Data Centers
That's how much S&P Global Ratings estimates data centers could pay in insurance premiums this year. That number compares to $5 billion a year for the entire aviation sector, the ratings firm said in a report Monday. The firm estimates the total insurable amount of data-center assets at $2 trillion
Health Care Roundup: Market Talk
Find insight on GSK, Sigma Healthcare and more in the latest Market Talks covering the Health Care sector.
Meta Expected to Unseat Google as World’s Largest Digital-Ad Player
The owner of Instagram and Facebook has fueled growth with new advertising products and AI.
Eagle Creek State Nature Preserve to host anniversary open house
The Ohio Department of Natural Resources will hold an open house at Eagle Creek State Nature Preserve on April 26 to mark the 50th anniversary of the Division of Natural
49ers News: What a tremendous week to extend Trent Williams
Your daily San Francisco 49ers news for Monday, April 13th, 2026
2026 NJBIZ Health Care Power List: F – J
2026 NJBIZ Health Care Power List: Meet the professionals leading the industry that keeps New Jerseyans strong, active and full of life.
Masters 2026: Odds for every winner since 1985
The longest odds of any Masters winner since 1985 are 150-1, with Trevor Immelman in 2008 and Larry Mize in 1987 pulling off the feat.
Things to do in Cincinnati this week, April 13-19
If you're looking for the best events happening in Cincinnati, you're at the right place. Find your next concert, game, festival or family event.
Previewing the 2026 season for Penn State TE Brian Kortovich
Brian Kortovich is a young, talented tight end looking to carve out a role in Penn State’s new-look tight end room.
How Oklahoma Landed America’s First Aluminum Smelter in Half a Century
Aluminum makers EGA and Century plan to break ground this year on a facility that would more than double U.S. smelting capacity.
Things to do in Pensacola: Mullet Man Triathlon; Earth Day Pensacola
Seven days out is your guide to entertainment events, concerts, festivals and activities in Escambia and Santa Rosa counties this week.
Bullpen took care of business for the Hens
The Official Site of Minor League Baseball web site includes features, news, rosters, statistics, schedules, teams, live game radio broadcasts, and video clips.
RFK Jr. Once Touted Raw Milk. Now He’s Stopped Talking About It.
The health secretary has instead promoted whole milk, a politically safer choice, as he seeks to avoid “weird stuff.”
ON THE JOB: “What is the Best Business Advice You’ve Ever Received?
Interviews by Deborah Jeanne Sergeant Sound advice can contribute to your success. We recently asked area business leaders, what was their best advice they’d ever received. Here’s what they said: “The best advice I ever received was from my then –boss, Gerry Church, Fulton plant manager at Miller Brewing Co. He told me that whenever I wanted to discuss a business problem or issue with him, I should also be prepared to offer possible solutions. It’s the difference between being proactive or reactive. It’s also the difference between being a leader or follower. That has served me well in any business relationship I have had since then.” — Stephen Chirello, Owner, Steve Chirello Advertising, Fulton “Someone will always do it for less; they will also take the most effort to service or satisfy and leave you for the next lower price.” — John M. Henry, Owner, Speedway Press, Mitchell Printing, Phoenix Press, Oswego “I’m going to answer this question by turning it around and giving my own advice that is, ‘Always treat every customer as if they were your only customer!’ We are celebrating our 50th anniversary in business this year. We started our business on March 25, 1976. My advice works.”” — Nick Chervinsky, President, Brewerton Pharmacy, Brewerton “’You need to toot your own horn, my grandfather, Howard D. Dice, told me.” — Beth Ann Dice, Women’s active aging and cancer recovery coach, Mission Movement Wellness Studio & Breast Cancer Recovery Studio, Fulton “In the micro enterprise class, they taught, ‘Get a good lawyer, accountant and bank.’ That was over 30 years ago and I still have those three today. I chose good people I could grow with.” — Tony Pauldine, Owner, Anthony M. Pauldine General Contractors Inc., Oswego “From my grandfather; ‘Listen to everyone! You never know where you will get the solution you need.’” — Kevin Dean, Executive director, Oswego County Opportunities, Fulton “‘Preparation is the mother of success.’ My dad always drilled that into my head growing up, and it has helped me avoid a lot of snags in both my personal and professional life. Thanks, Dad!” — Bekkah Frisch, Owner and president, iHeart Holdings, Inc., Fulton “If you don’t take a risk and try, you will never know.” — Justin Taber, Owner, Torbitt’s Service Center, Oswego “Be ready to take a loss.” — Cody Seymour, Manager, Damiano’s Eatery, Mexico “I’ve received so much good business advice over the years. When people are giving you advice, always be curious rather than judgmental. Follow your gut. Doing the right thing is never the wrong thing.” — Dana Decker, Principal owner/broker, Berkshire Hathaway Home Services, Oswego ’Do it and figure it out later.’ It hasn’t failed me yet. Too many people take time to think about doing this and this and this and then the opportunity is over with. If it’s somewhat reasonable — if it’s not something outrageous — do it and figure it out later.” — Jeremy Allen, Licensed real estate salesperson, Acropolis Realty Group, Syracuse “’Try to meet the needs of the customer. Treat them like you’d like to be treated.’ It’s like the Golden Rule says.” — Douglas Dickson, Physician and associate at CNY Foot Surgery and Podiatry Care, East Syracuse “The best piece of business advice I’ve ever received applies to life in general: always be honest. Never overstate your capabilities and always be willing to ask questions. The more specific you can be in any given topic will always lead to a better outcome.” — Tom Fernandez, President, Woodbine Hospitality, Syracuse “As a business owner, the advice would be ‘Don’t overextend yourself. Especially in agriculture, expect issues to come up.’ If something is going right, it’s not true agriculture. This last season, we scaled very hard to field another crew. We got more drones, crew and generators based on projections. This last season hit the ag community hard with a very wet spring. We did 15,000 to 20,000 acres for fungicide and the same for cover crop seeding in 2024. We scaled to 25,000 to 30,000 for 2025. We ended up doing 2,000 for fungicide and 3,000 for cover crop seeding. That’s why that advice was good.” — Rick Jordan, Operations manager, CNY Drove Services, Clinton “’Keep your head down, mind your own business and do the best for your clients that you can do.’ It has a lot to do with my success in working for Galloway Century 21.” — Ed Fayette, New York state licensed real estate agent, Century 21 Galloway, Oswego “’Expand in all ways, always.’ It just keeps you going and keeps you growing.” — Stephen Baier, Licensed real estate person, The Real Estate Agency & Bouck Commercial, Auburn “The best advice is, ‘Your biggest asset you won’t see on the books because it comes from your employees.’” — David Flickinger, Owner, Edible Arrangements, Syracuse “Don’t take things personally when you’re working with the public.” — Leeann Desimone, Manager, Annie’s Hallmark Shop, Auburn “‘Follow up.’ The customer knows that you care about what you are doing and that their opinion counts. Sometimes they might be on the fence about whether they want to use your company. If they’re asking your opinion on things, they feel you are concerned about what you’re doing. They like to be kept in the loop if they’re spending money with you.” — Dorothy Casper, Saslesperson, SweetWoods Memorials, Phoenix “The best business advice I received is ‘Never be the smartest person in the room. Surround yourself with people who are smarter than you.’ That’s how you learn.” — Debbie Bilello, Owner, Virtual Office Solutions, Central Square “’You need to grow your business but you can’t grow too big too fast.’ That’s what we’ve done at Pinnacle Maintenance. We’ve tried to grow but not too fast. Along those same lines, there’s another good piece of advice, ‘Don’t take on more than you can handle because it only leads to a bad name for your business and a bad experience for your customers.’ It goes along the same lines as growing your business slowly and carefully.” — David Wines, Owner, Pinnacle Maintenance, Central Square “Always be on time and do what you say you are going to do.’ I’ve done very well following that advice. Most of my work is referral and I don’t really do any advertising so I have a pretty good customer base. It’s mostly word-of-mouth from satisfied customers.” — Robert J. Fleming, Owner, Bob Fleming Windows & Doors, Brewerton “’Concentrate on your finances, always pay your taxes, and form a team you can depend on. Try to help the community you’re in as much as you can.’ We do all of these all the time here. We give and give and give to the community and the community gives back to us always.” — Susan Bonnet, Co-owner, Bonnet Sales and Service, Central Square “Keep smiling. It brings a positive attitude to the workplace.” — Karin Lindsley, Vice president, DTS Truck Service, Syracuse “‘Customer service above all.’ Following this advice has served us very well.’ — Guy Fox, Owner, Fox’s Discount Parts, West Monroe “The best thing to do is to make sure you’re taking in more money than you’re spending. I wish I could say I’m a good businessman but I have been in business since 1981. I’m not a bean counter but work well with my hands and its’s served me well all these years and I am still in business.” — Matt McGill, Owner, Matt McGill Collision, Brewerton
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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