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Deezer says 44% of songs uploaded to its platform daily are AI-generated
Deezer says consumption of AI-generated music on the platform is still very low, between 1-3% of the total streams, and that 85% of these streams are detected as fraudulent and are demonetized.
U.S. Delivers Maternal Health Equipment Across Madagascar - U.S. Embassy in Madagascar
U.S. Delivers Maternal Health Equipment Across Madagascar U.S. Chargé d’Affaires Stephanie Arnold today provided critical maternal and newborn health equipment that will reach healthcare facilities across Madagascar, demonstrating how U.S. foreign assistance builds a safer, healthier world by helping recipient countries build self-reliant health systems in line with the America First Global Health Strategy. Under President Trump’s America First foreign assistance policy and the America First Global Health Policy, U.S. support serves as a tool of strategic engagement – not global charity. Every U.S. taxpayer dollar is subject to rigorous oversight to ensure measurable results, maximum efficiency, and accountability, with zero tolerance for fraud, waste, or abuse. Through the bilateral Global Health Memorandum of Understanding with Madagascar’s Ministry of Public Health, both governments agreed on shared priorities and responsibilities, including a strong focus on maternal and newborn health and Madagascar’s increasing co-investment in its own health system. Madagascar continues to face major challenges in maternal and newborn health, including high maternal mortality rates and significant gaps in access to quality delivery care. In rural regions, many women still give birth at home or in facilities without adequate infection-prevention supplies. Through the U.S.-funded Momentum Country and Global Leadership Project, the United States is providing essential equipment to healthcare facilities nationwide: calibrated reusable drapes for infection prevention in approximately 1,000 community health centers (CSBs), single-use calibrated drapes for 35 hospitals, and management tools for health workers to improve data collection and care coordination. “U.S. foreign assistance makes America safer by preventing instability and strengthening health systems that can detect and contain infectious diseases before they cross borders,” said Chargé d’Affaires Arnold during the handover ceremony. “Our support is temporary and targeted, designed to help Madagascar build greater self-reliance and reduce long-term dependence on U.S. taxpayer resources.” This U.S. support will help standardize safe delivery practices, strengthen infection prevention, and improve data management systems. Used effectively, these materials will contribute directly to reducing maternal and newborn deaths, especially in rural and hard-to-reach areas where access to quality delivery care remains limited. From major hospitals to remote health centers, U.S.-funded equipment is already delivering results. The nationwide scope of this support ensures that women and newborns across Madagascar benefit from improved infection prevention and safer delivery practices. This targeted assistance helps save lives today while supporting Madagascar’s transition toward a self-sufficient health system, ensuring that today’s U.S. support leads to Madagascar’s future independence from foreign assistance.
Hubble dazzles with young stars in Trifid Nebula for 36th anniversary
The NASA/ESA Hubble Space Telescope looked at a scene it first captured in 1997 in honour of 36th anniversary: a small portion of a star-forming region about 5000 light-years away in the constellation Sagittarius, known as the Trifid Nebula. The image shows changes over incredibly short timescales and instills a sense of awe and wonder about our ever-changing Universe.
Pragmata surpasses 1m copies sold in just two days
In just two days after release, Capcom's latest game - Pragmata - has surpassed 1m units sold.
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Schematic illustration of overpotential deconvolution in anion exchange membrane water electrolysis using electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) and distribution of relaxation times (DRT) analysis.
Car drives into Bama Health Foods overnight
Car drives into Bama Health Foods overnight
Bob on Business: Haltom City, soon home to H Mart, is getting a new Costco brand
Also, Watergate impact in Cleburne? TechFW’s lab and a helicopter sequel.
An expert in crowd science to help Boston Marathon manage 32,000 runners
Running the Boston Marathon is tough enough without having to jostle your way from Hopkinton to Copley Square.
Massive Intel Nova Lake leak reveals multiple chips with copious amounts of cache
A new leak has highlighted exactly how much total cache each Intel Nova Lake chip could feature at launch. The top-spec model reportedly has more cache than AMD’s newly announced Ryzen 9 9950X3D2.
Colorado’s lawmakers lie on the ballot, again, to take away TABOR
I know this will shock you, but the system is rigged. Maybe not in the conspiracy-theory, tinfoil-hat way. In the simple, obvious, right-in-front-of-your-face way: politicians get to play by rules you don’t. And every now and then they get so brazen about it, you have to stop and admire the hustle. We Coloradans have been […]
Largest-ever 3D map of the universe shows 47 million galaxies, from the Milky Way to 'cosmic noon' — Space photo of the week
The largest 3D map of the universe, created with data from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument, shows 47 million galaxies in stunning detail.
Stars and science align at annual Breakthrough Prize Ceremony with Anne Hathaway, Robert Downey Jr., Margot Robbie and more A-listers
Keweenaw Support 4 Healthy Minds holds 3rd annual Youth Mental Health Fair
Teens were invited to the 3rd annual Keweenaw Support 4 Healthy Minds mental health fair Saturday afternoon to learn how to cope with stress.
Arizona midterms begin with spotlight on largest county's controversial election system
Much of the political spotlight this election year in Arizona has been focused on the office that runs elections in Maricopa County, the state’s largest. Republican Justin Heap is overseeing elections in the Phoenix-area and he's an election skeptic.
LIVE SCORE UPDATES & ANALYSIS: Arkansas baseball vs. Georgia Game 3
Follow along as the Razorbacks play the Bulldogs in the rubber game.
First-ever SPHEREx images spark hope to finally unlock the Universe’s origin mysteries - Futura-Sciences
SPHEREx Takes Off: A Mission Begins On March 11, a Falcon 9 rocket launched from California’s Vandenberg Space Force Base, carrying a particularly precious piece of NASA’s scientific arsenal: the SPHEREx space telescope. Its mission? To map the cosmos with its high-precision instruments and spectacular image quality. No pressure, right?...
A big midterms year in Arizona kicks off with the state's largest county embroiled in election drama
Much of the political spotlight this election year in Arizona has been focused on the office that runs elections in Maricopa County, the state’s largest | WWJ Newsradio 950
A big midterms year in Arizona kicks off with the state's largest county embroiled in election drama
Much of the political spotlight this election year in Arizona has been focused on the office that runs elections in Maricopa County, the state’s largest | KNSS Radio
Colorado Politics Calendar Apr. 20-26
CoPo’s weekly political calendar helps you find political and public policy events throughout Colorado. It includes candidate and issue campaign events, public policy meetings, court hearings, state and local party conventions, assemblies, debates, rallies, parades, speaking engagements, traveling dignitary appearances, water meetings, book signings, county commission hearings, city council meetings and more. As a subscriber, […]
Texas health professionals urge action on microplastics
Concerns over microplastics are growing as researchers are finding them almost everywhere.
Purplish: Who’s on the primary ballot and what did it take for them to get there
Party diehards got their say on who they want to see on the ballot. The Purplish team breaks down who made it through and what it means to pick candidates this way.
Newsom PAC bought thousands of memoir copies about his hardships, juicing sales
Campaign finance filings reveal Gavin Newsom's PAC bought 67,000 copies of his memoir for over $1.5 million amid his 2024 presidential positioning.
Broadband Breakfast on May 13, 2026 – The Politics of Data Centers
Who decides where data centers get built?
$311 Million Approved for Construction of New UT Health Sciences College of Medicine Building
The Tennessee General Assembly Thursday approved the funding of $311 million recommended by Governor Bill Lee for the construction of a new $350 million College of Medicine Interdisciplinary Building at the University of Tennessee Health Sciences. The 275,000- to 300,000-square-foot building will be located on the Memphis campus on Madison Avenue, between the College of… Read More
$311 Million Approved for Construction of New UT Health Sciences College of Medicine Building
The Tennessee General Assembly Thursday approved the funding of $311 million recommended by Governor Bill Lee for the construction of a new $350 million College of Medicine Interdisciplinary Building at the University of Tennessee Health Sciences.
The Corvette ZR1X Had 1,250 HP And AWD At The ‘Ring. The Mustang GTD Competition Had Neither, And Won Anyway
The GTD Competition beats the standard GTD's previous 'Ring time by more than 11 seconds, and the Corvette's by eight
Why some tech leaders are sounding the alarm about Colorado’s ‘deteriorating’ business climate
Colorado enjoyed a reputation of being business-friendly in recent decades. But some in the business community worry that too much regulation is hurting the state’s ability to attract new companies. And they’re asking the governor for help.
🏆Shocks and LOTS of goals: Thursday's Sudamericana highlights
That’s a wrap on all of Thursday’s Copa Sudamericana matches, and here we bring you the star, the surprise, and the disappointment of the day.Álvarez’s machine got goingAfter the draw in Paragu...
Scientists Captured Light in a Trap 2,000 Times Thinner Than a Human Hair
Microscopic gadgets could be next.
Roman Space Telescope Science Platform Will Open New Frontiers in Space Science
Preparations for NASA's soon-to-launch Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope have already introduced historic changes to the field of astronomy. Starting in 2027, Roman will deliver an unprecedented volume of complex survey data that will be impractical to download to individual computers for analysis. Astronomers and engineers at the Space Telescope Science Institute (STScI), working in close collaboration with the mission’s partners at NASA and Caltech/IPAC, have met these new developments head
Democrats want the full 2024 election autopsy released — no matter the findings
DNC Chair Ken Martin told party officials he planned to release some of the results, sources said. But more than a dozen Democrats said they want to see the full scope of the problems.
Gov. Ron DeSantis orders flags at half-staff to honor Nancy Metayer Bowen
Metayer Bowen was shot and killed at her home April 1. Her husband faces murder and evidence-tampering charges.
Joshua Burgin urges greater collaboration at all levels to stop foreign cyberattacks
The Alliance for Global Security founder said America's enemies are working together closely and it's time for the West to do the same.
RFK Jr. to Reform Health Panel That Determines Which Screenings Insurers Cover
The health secretary said he would reform the panel, which determines whether insurance will cover preventive services like mammograms and colonoscopies.
Roman Space Telescope Science Platform Will Open New Frontiers in Space Science
With the release of the cloud-hosted Roman Research Nexus,
New Stoner Survival Dealing 4X Rewards as LD Organics Presents: The 420 Event
The man with the van and the plan is putting his stamp on Los Santos this 420 as LD Organics Presents: The 420 Event. Celebrate with a new Hunting Pack (Get Lamar) location that’s dispensing 4X Rewards, enjoy a kaleidoscope of hallucinations along with...
UroFlow Claims Evaluated: Reviewing the Official Website Benefits & Ingredients to Support Prostate Health
A 2026 consumer information overview of how UroFlow presents its Saw Palmetto, Pygeum Africanum, Lycopene, and Tomato Sauce Trick ingredient references, official website benefit descriptions, pricing structure, and published guarantee terms for men researching natural prostate and urinary flow support supplementsLakeland, FL, April 15, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- This article contains affiliate links. If a purchase is made through these links, a commission may be earned at no additional cost to the
Safe2Eat in 2026 – Science-backed guidance for all Europeans!
Now in its sixth year, Safe2Eat remains a flagship EU-wide initiative designed to make food safety science accessible and relevant to everyday life. By translating complex scientific knowledge into practical guidance, the campaign helps consumers better understand how food safety works and how it supports their health and wellbeing.Growing reach across Europe and neighbouring countriesSince its launch, Safe2Eat has steadily expanded its geographical scope. From an initial group of 9 participating countries, the campaign reaches 23 countries across Europe and beyond in 2026. This year’s edition...
Red Wings at Panthers: Notes, Lines, Goalies, How to Watch
The post Red Wings at Panthers: Notes, Lines, Goalies, How to Watch appeared first on Detroit Hockey Now. The Detroit Red Wings (41-30-10) are on the road today to play the Florida Panthers (39-38-4). The Red Wings have […] The post Red Wings at Panthers: Notes, Lines, Goalies, How to Watch appeared first on Detroit Hockey Now.
The fight to protect California science starts now
UC is co-sponsoring Senate Bill 895, a critical effort to sustain world-changing research that fuels the fourth-largest economy in the world and supports the quality of life for all Californians.
UT Health Sciences Nursing Professor to Enter International Nurse Researcher Hall of Fame
A UT Health Sciences College of Nursing professor is among 26 nurse researchers who will be inducted into the International Nurse Researcher Hall of Fame.
‘Our strongest momentum yet’: Pia Dandiya touts $410K haul in Q1 toward flipping CD 21
‘People across our community are ready for new leadership that lowers costs, expands opportunity, and puts people over politics.’
Lehigh sets Division I record with 20-run first inning
Thirty-two Lehigh players batted during a 20-run first inning that set an NCAA record during a 38-6 blowout win over Coppin State.
ETSU Health receives $2.4M grant to expand care for unhoused communities
ETSU Health Family Medicine’s new street medicine program brings care directly to people experiencing homelessness while training resident physicians.
Japan Pledges $10 Billion to Help Countries Cope With Oil Prices
With supply chains at risk, the aid to Southeast Asian nations is aimed at securing the availability of oil-based products, including medical equipment.
Ocean scientists need to learn a lesson from NASA
My social media this week was full of space. When Artemis I splashed down, the world watched in awe. When the James Webb Space Telescope unrolled its golden mirrors, it felt like a win for humanity…
UCF Materials Science Undergraduate Researcher Awarded DOE Internship at National Lab
Deneé Lichtenberg is advancing new methods for recovering rare earth metals — groundbreaking work she’ll continue at Los Alamos National Laboratory.
Here’s Why JDP Capital Management Exited Its Position in Caesars Entertainment (CZR)
JDP Capital Management, an investment management company, released its “Survivor & Thriver Fund” first-quarter 2026 investor letter. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. In the first quarter, the fund declined 15.1% net to investors compared to the S&P 500’s -4.3% return. Concerns about AI destruction fears and consumer softness impacted market sentiment in […]
Scientists Break Optical Limits With Quantum Dot-Powered Nanoscopy
A powerful new microscopy technique unveils hidden nanoscale light interactions, offering a glimpse into physics that conventional tools cannot resolve.
Brian Mast backs 'exceptionally well-qualified' Blaise Ingoglia in CFO race
'Blaise Ingoglia has demonstrated steadfast leadership and a clear commitment to protecting Florida’s taxpayers.'
WATCH: Science graduate students recap international industry internship
Penn State graduate students Samantha Seibel and Naomi Huntley discuss their participation in a six-week summer internship program in Germany that was made possible by a partnership between QIAGEN LLC and the University's One Health Microbiome Center.
Annual Science Potpourri sparks kids’ interest in sciences — The Sun Star
The University of Alaska Fairbanks held its annual Science Potpourri Saturday to the delight of the children in attendance. Laughter and “oohs” and “awws” were heard many times as the event held demonstrations with explosions, microscopes, museum curation, and other items to get children interested
Victoria Li's senior project: Exploring how AI processes information
Knowing how chatbots turn input into output will help with reliability and trust in AI agents
Microsoft Plans to Bring Copilot Into the Agentic AI Age
An always-on Copilot could sort out your inbox and calendar.
Anthropic's AI Assistant Claude Is Now Available in Microsoft Word
If you're using Word, you can now try out an alternative AI tool to Copilot, though it's only in beta testing for now.
Microsoft is working on yet another OpenClaw-like agent
The company has also previously introduced agents that are able to complete tasks, Cowork and Copilot Tasks.
Cleveland Clinic Launches ‘Good Science’ Video Series
The series of short videos is aimed at helping people better understand research and health information.
How Commissioner Joe Neunder became a symbol of everything voters distrust in SWFL
Sarasota land deal raises ethics questions and fuels voter distrust
Microsoft is testing OpenClaw-like AI bots for 365 Copilot
The Verge is about technology and how it makes us feel. Founded in 2011, we offer our audience everything from breaking news to reviews to award-winning features and investigations, on our site, in video, and in podcasts.
THCA Flower Sales Resume in Texas After Judge Grants TRO
Administrative agency rules that had banned smokable flower are now on pause due to the temporary restraining order.
PREVIEW: Liverpool hoping for special display to overturn PSG
Liverpool will welcome Paris Saint-Germain to Anfield tomorrow night as they look to overturn a 2-0 deficit from the first leg in the French capital last week.Should the Reds fail to advance to the ne...
AIFF to offer 40 film programs, four days of entertainment
Ashland-born filmmaker to screen debut feature film ‘A Simple Machine’ Celebrating its 25th anniversary, the Ashland Independent Film Festival is set to return in late April, bringing in acclaimed filmmakers […]
OPEC lowers second-quarter global oil demand forecast on Iran war
OPEC on Monday lowered its forecast for world oil demand in the second quarter, citing the impact of the ongoing war in the Middle East, a copy of its monthly oil report seen by Reuters showed.
Geography Graduate Students Receive National Science Foundation Award Offers for the 2026 Graduate Research Fellowship Program
Congratulations to our first year graduate students; Danielle Losos, Emily Nagamoto, and Lauren Palermo for receiving award offers from the National Science
Upcoming Android flagships may get a bold new look, and you can probably thank Apple
A tipster says next-gen Android flagships are preparing to copy Apple's hero color for the iPhone 18 Pro.
UNM College of Population Health Celebrates 10 Years
Friday, April 17, 2026, The University of New Mexico’s College of Population Health (COPH) will proudly celebrate its 10-year anniversary, marking a decade of measurable impact, substantial growth and future ambition. Founded in 2016, COPH became the...
Byron Donalds to announce industry-focused workforce initiative
The candidate for Governor will announce his LaunchPad plans as part of his 'Defending the Florida Dream' tour.
James Uthmeier gets endorsement from Florida Police Benevolent Association
Police organization representing 30K cops in Florida says Uthmeier is committed to law and order.
Donald Trump's Incompetence Is Costing Him the Country: Commentary
Donald Trump has led us to chaos — war with Iran, spiking gas prices, unstable markets — that may lose him the Republican party and the nation.
Scientists Unveil Microscopy Breakthrough That Reveals “Invisible” Molecular States
Scientists have introduced a microscopy technique that reveals a hidden layer of chemistry involving molecules that normally evade detection.
Let the state’s narrative-laundering season begin
Politics is a game of narrative. Whoever controls the narrative wins. Sure, the truth is interesting. But truth doesn’t sell. It takes time to uncover, assuming people care enough to go digging for it. Narratives are easier. They’re simple, comforting and come pre-approved by the crowd. Groupthink isn’t just easy. It’s safe. The truth, on […]
Maria Elvira Salazar raises nearly $1M in three months as she gears up for re-election
The South Florida Republican is running for a fourth term in a battleground district.
John Donaldson, the father of Denmark's Australian-born Queen Mary, dies at 84
The royal house in Copenhagen says the father of Denmark’s Australian-born Queen Mary, John Donaldson, has died in Tasmania | 1010 WINS
John Donaldson, the father of Denmark's Australian-born Queen Mary, dies at 84
The royal house in Copenhagen says the father of Denmark’s Australian-born Queen Mary, John Donaldson, has died in Tasmania | KCBS All News 106.9FM and 740AM
Bridging Oral Health and Integrated Care: A Scientometric Study of Integrated Care for Older People (ICOPE) and Removable Prosthodontics in Older Adults
Population aging has shifted healthcare priorities from disease-centered models towards functional ability and quality of life. The WHO Integrated Care for Older People (ICOPE) framework operati...
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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