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Pennsylvania Republicans won on lowering prices. Then came the Iran war.
Two Republicans who unseated House Democrats in 2024 after promising to lower the cost of living are fighting to keep their seats amid rising prices.
The Trump team’s worst predictions about the Iran war
Over the last four and a half months, President Donald Trump and those around him have confidently made predictions that quickly fell apart.
Consumer inflation cooled more than expected in June as gas prices fell
The Bureau of Labor Statistics found that the consumer price index (CPI) eased in June as consumer price growth slowed after a recent surge caused by the Iran war.
Is the Iran war back on for real?
After days of newly intense fighting, Trump asserted he’ll take control of the Hormuz Strait — and charge for access.
Republicans feel increasingly upbeat about their chances in the midterms
GOP strategists who spoke to NBC News said they are less worried than they were a few months ago about the Iran war and rising prices hurting their party.
Trump says the Iran ceasefire is ‘OVER.’ What now?
The Iran war has apparently entered a new phase. But the president isn’t being clear about what that means.
How Mitch McConnell’s absence complicates the Senate’s business and war funding
The 84-year-old's hospital stay may make it harder for Republicans to break a stalemate over funding, including $87 billion for the Pentagon as the Iran war reignites.
Trump reopens the Iran war — and a political problem he can’t shake
Republicans face fall elections tied to a conflict most voters oppose, unable to end it and mostly unwilling to break with the man who started it.
IMF exepcts world economy to grow a sluggish 3% this year
The group cited the energy shock caused by the Iran war
UK business morale slumps as Iran war pushes up costs, survey shows
British business confidence fell to its lowest since 2022 as the Iran war, which pushed up costs, saps expectations for future sales, a survey of accountants showed on Thursday.
Business Jet Departures in Middle East Drop 30% During Iran War
Business jet departures in the Middle East declined about 30% in the aftermath of the Iran war, a trend that’s at risk of continuing until a peace deal is signed.
How the Iran War Ignited a Clash Between Trump and the Saudi Crown Prince
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman pressed President Trump earlier to cripple Iran. But as Iran asserted its power, the prince urged a cease-fire, and is now pursuing his security priorities.
We're trimming a health-care stock into strength and raising our price target
It's been a remarkable turnaround for a name we started to buy a little too high and a little too fast when the Iran war broke out.
Fed's favored inflation gauge accelerated in May amid energy price shock
The Commerce Department PCE inflation report for May showed the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge rose higher amid the energy price shock caused by the Iran war.
German Business Outlook Improves Slightly as Uncertainty Wanes
Germany’s business outlook brightened slightly in June, easing worries about the knock-on effects of the Iran war on Europe’s largest economy.
Goldman Sachs analysts say EV adoption set to hammer demand for oil
Goldman Sachs says a shift spurred by the Iran War and its disruption to energy markets will put downward pressure on crude prices through 2027.
Euro-Zone Business Activity Shows Resilience to Iran War Fallout
Business activity in the euro area shrank less than anticipated in June, feeding optimism that the region’s economy can weather faster inflation and the jolt to confidence dealt by the Iran war.
German Business Activity Unexpectedly Worsens on Services Slump
Germany’s private sector shrank for a third month as sagging confidence over the Iran war sent services activity sinking at its fastest pace since 2022.
French Business Activity Extends Drop With Economy ‘Frail’
French business activity shrank for a sixth month after higher energy costs sparked by the Iran war hurt confidence and consumer spending.
Congress is on the brink of a rare bipartisan victory: From the Politics Desk
Plus, the latest on the talks to end the Iran war.
The scale of Trump’s political blunder in Iran is coming into focus
The first major poll conducted since the Trump administration signed a memorandum of understanding shows Americans just want to be done with the Iran war.
What the Iran war cost the Pentagon, the economy
With an agreement signed, the US war with Iran is at a halt, at least for now, and President Donald Trump is telling Americans they have won.
Trump wanted out of the Iran war. The aftermath is pulling him back in.
The ceasefire reopened diplomacy, but it also left Washington to manage Iran’s leverage, Israel’s attacks and a MAGA backlash.
Trump deepens the dustup with Italy's Meloni, who says his 'unprovoked attacks are senseless'
President Donald Trump on Saturday lashed out at Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, insisting that she asked “over and over” for a photo with him at the recent Group of Seven summit and criticizing what he said was Italy’s lack of cooperation during the Iran war.
Congress wonders as the Iran war draws to a close: Was it worth it?
The question hangs in the halls at the Capitol: Was the war with Iran worth it
‘Trump has surrendered to Iran’: Some prominent GOP hawks fear Trump just caved
When President Donald Trump launched the Iran war in February, he risked alienating the non-interventionist base he had spent a decade cultivating.
The Iran war’s end is being greatly exaggerated
There are many questions unresolved in the latest ceasefire deal and many ways the conflict could begin again.
How to judge Trump’s claims he’s ended the Iran war
The world whiplashed Thursday between an apparently imminent, dangerous escalation of the war in Iran and a claim of peace in our time.
US wholesale inflation rose sharply last month as Iran oil shock continues to drive up business costs
US businesses’ input costs are rising rapidly as the Iran war’s oil shock continues to ripple through the economy.
South African business confidence edges up in May after April slump
South African business confidence edged up in May after a sharp fall in April, as companies adjusted to the oil price shock triggered by the Iran war and vehicle sales remained buoyant, data showed on Thursday.
Why a frustrated Trump is turning again to bombs to force Iran’s hand
The Trump administration is making a new bid to prove a core assumption the Iran war so far suggests is flawed: that punishing strikes from a far superior US military force will force Tehran to capitulate.
Trump’s most tone-deaf comments on Iran and the economy, ranked
President Donald Trump has repeatedly dismissed Americans’ economic pain and military casualties from the Iran war with comments critics call insensitive.
How the Iran war could drive conflicts in countries thousands of miles away
Fuel and food prices are rising. Mass protests could follow.
Nebraska Sen. Pete Ricketts fields questions on Iran, women’s sports during tele-town hall
Nebraska U.S. Sen. Pete Ricketts was asked about the Iran War, social programs, women's sports, and the SAVE Act.
The political consequences of the Iran war
When wars are undertaken without initial public support, the public reaction against those who started and supported it can be harsh.
US consumers are rethinking their spending, retailers say
U.S. consumers haven’t stopped spending money since the Iran war drove up fuel prices, but many shoppers are reassessing what they buy and where, according to company executives and retail analysts. The behavior changes observed so far are subtle, such as altered routines for buying gasoline and fewer visits to clothing and furniture stores. They […]
China's global e-commerce push stalls as Iran war lifts costs, dampens demand
China's e-commerce export engine is faltering as surging jet fuel costs and weak demand from lower-income consumers in the West linked to the Iran war threaten profits for big online platforms like Temu , Shein and AliExpress .
Fact-checking Trump’s interview with NBC News’ ‘Meet the Press’
Digging into some of the president’s claims on the Iran war, the Jan. 6 riots, California’s primary elections and more.
From unfilled gas tanks to fewer frills, retailers see US consumers rethink their spending
U.S. consumers haven’t stopped spending since the Iran war drove up fuel prices.
America In Focus: US job market is rebounding, but economic frustration persists
U.S. employers added a surprising 172,000 jobs in May as the labor market continued to show resilience in the face of rising costs from the Iran war.
In roundtable, Eugene and Springfield business leaders raise concern about federal policies economic impact
Several business owners at the roundtable, convened by Oregon Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley, said customers are spending less. Merkley said higher prices are linked to tariffs, inflation and the Iran war.
Iran war piles pressure on Germany
"It’s scary because we don’t know what’s going to happen next.” Fruitsellers, industry bosses, and shoppers in eastern Germany reflect on 100 days of the Iran war, and the rise of the far-right.
Iran war powers rebuke shows how Trump is increasingly boxed in
With potential destruction looming for the GOP in November and as the Iran war trends towards a quagmire, President Donald Trump is losing control of what lies ahead.
Resilient Saudi economy proves a draw for wartime Gulf business
By Timour Azhari, Federico Maccioni and Yousef Saba RIYADH, June 3 (Reuters) - When food-tech entrepreneur Sara Amini wanted to see where Gulf businesses were still spending despite the Iran war, she
Resilient Saudi economy proves a draw for wartime Gulf business
When food-tech entrepreneur Sara Amini wanted to see where Gulf businesses were still spending despite the Iran war, she flew to Riyadh.
New Mexicans vote in gubernatorial primaries as revenue soars from oil boom
Tuesday's primary election also comes at a time of promise for the next governor: Elevated global oil prices from the Iran war have translated into an influx of tax revenue.
New Mexicans vote in gubanatorial primaries as revenue soars from oil boom
Tuesday's primary election also comes at a time of promise for the next governor: Elevated global oil prices from the Iran war have translated into an influx of tax revenue.
The Latest: Rubio testifies before Congress for the first time since the start of the Iran war
Secretary of State Marco Rubio faces a litany of questions Tuesday about the Trump administration’s fragile or stalling diplomatic efforts around the world
South Africa Business Mood Slips as Iran War Upends Rate Outlook
South African business sentiment weakened in the second quarter as consumers faced fresh pressures from the Iran war that’s clouded the outlook for inflation and interest rates.
The Latest: Trump faces new inflation warning from bond market, adding to midterm challenges
The energy price spike triggered by the Iran war has seeped into the price of bonds that help fund the U.S. government, causing interest rates to climb in ways that are worsening affordability pressures, hampering economic growth and creating a new risk for Republicans in November’s midterm elections
The top stock picks smart money is buying, according to Morningstar
The Iran war has fueled market volatility for months. Rather than sitting it out, Morningstar says the smart money has been buying these 10 stocks.
Japan, South Korea stocks hit more records, as oil gains on Iran war ending fragility
Oil prices have gained and stock markets in Japan and South Korea have hit fresh record highs on enthusiasm over the artificial intelligence boom, as investors await a decision on the ceasefire extension of the Iran war.
Trump Is Dominating GOP Primary Elections. Does That Mean Victory in the Midterms?
Come November, the Republican Party will need the support of voters outside of President Trump’s base, many of whom are deeply dissatisfied with the economy and the Iran war.
UK business sentiment edges up in May, Lloyds says
British business sentiment edged up in May and is now close to its level before the Iran war, according to a monthly survey by Lloyds on Friday which contrasted with most other measures of business and consumer sentiment.
Fed's favored inflation gauge remained elevated in April
The latest PCE inflation data was released by the Commerce Department and showed that inflation rose and remained elevated in April due in part to the Iran war's impact.
Trump might not have a good way out of the Iran war
President Donald Trump’s war with Iran hasn’t exactly been a rousing success so far. And much of the American public expects that the conflict’s end — whenever that will be — won’t change that.
The Latest: Iran deal progress is murky after US military says it carried out ‘self-defense’ strikes
President Donald Trump insists a peace deal is close on this 88th day of the Iran war, but Iran on Tuesday denounced U.S. strikes a day earlier as a sign of “bad faith and unreliability” as negotiations continue.
A ruse, a brave gamble or a fantasy? Why Trump’s most puzzling Iran move yet is unlikely to work
If Donald Trump’s search for a way out of the Iran war was not difficult enough, he’s added a new goal that threatens to vastly complicate the Middle East’s already splintered politics.
Netanyahu increasingly isolated as Trump pursues Iran peace deal
The lack of a decisive victory in the Iran war has led to Trump losing confidence in the Israeli prime minister, analysts say.
Trump’s emerging plan to end Iran war draws criticism from hard-line Republicans
President Donald Trump’s emerging deal to end the Iran war is drawing heavy criticism from some fellow Republicans who favor a harder line against the government in Tehran and fear a lost opportunity to finally rein in a longtime Mideast nemesis.
Republicans who have drawn a hard line on Iran pan Trump's emerging proposal to end the war
President Donald Trump’s emerging deal to end the Iran war is drawing heavy criticism from some fellow Republicans.
Republicans who have drawn a hard line on Iran pan Trump's emerging proposal to end the war
President Donald Trump’s emerging deal to end the Iran war is drawing heavy criticism from some fellow Republicans.
Bond breakout? Big effects of bad data. Immigration and thermostatic politics & dad-chat is coming for dad-books.
Thank you for opening your Chartbook email. Anna Airy, A Shell Forge at a National Projectile Factory, Hackney Marshes, London, 1918 Bond breakout - John Authers Across the developed markets, bond markets are staging a slow-motion car wreck. Looking at the drastic moves in the US, Japan, the UK and France, Barclays’ Ajay Rajadhyaksha commented: “Last week, long bonds broke. Not in one country. In all of them. Simultaneously. Four countries. Four different political systems. Four different central banks. But the same trade — “get me out of duration!”” Each country has its own contributing political problems, but the uniformity of the shift out of long-term bonds with high duration makes clear that something broader is afoot. For Rajadhyaksha, it is “simple and uncomfortable.” The developed world “has too much debt, too little fiscal discipline, and no political appetite for fixing either.” If there’s a trigger, it has been the Iran war and the resulting shock to oil supply. Source: Bloomberg G7 countries are now borrowing at rates that were enjoyed by EM in the early 2020s For contributing subscribers only. Subscribe Trade between China and Russia has grown in recent years For contributing subscribers only. Subscribe Big effects of bad data A decade ago nearly nine in ten Americans, when approached, agreed to fill out the Current Population Survey, which is administered to about 60,000 households each month and asks about, among other things, employment. Fewer than seven in ten do so now (see chart 1). For the Consumer Expenditure Survey, which tries to capture 3,700 households monthly, the response rate is down from 68% to 40%. … When the information becomes less reliable, investment decisions get more difficult to make. Some may be delayed, creating a potential drag on the economy. A new working paper by Nicholas Bloom of Stanford University, Erica Groshen, former head of the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) now at Cornell University, and Duncan Hobbs and Michael Strain of the American Enterprise Institute, a think-tank, hazards an estimate. Preserving trust in “the integrity and quality of official statistics”, the authors claim, generates economic benefits of about $25 for every $1 spent on the BLS, the agency with an annual budget of $700m that is responsible for many of these data. To arrive at their conclusion the quartet analysed an ignoble episode in the BLS’s recent history. On August 1st 2025 Donald Trump sacked Erika McEntarfer, appointed as the agency’s commissioner by his predecessor, Joe Biden. The president alleged, without evidence, that the BLS’s steep downward revision to recent jobs numbers had been “RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad”. In fact, it was the wanton dismissal that looked bad in the eyes of many observers. In the following seven days there was a 50% leap, relative to the week before, in the average value of the index of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU), which tracks the number of articles mentioning such uncertainty that are published daily in American newspapers. This was a discernible jump even when compared to the chaos caused by Mr Trump’s trade war in April 2025 and his real one in Iran in the past two months (see chart 2). Based on Mr Bloom’s earlier study with other colleagues of the EPU’s impact on business investment, industrial production and employment, the authors estimate that the jump reduced American GDP by over $100bn (0.3%) and non-farm payrolls by 168,000 (0.1%). Source: The Economist Immigration and thermostatic politics (Sarah O’Connor in the FT) A strange thing happened a year and a half ago. No sooner had Americans elected Donald Trump as president on an explicitly anti-immigration platform than US public opinion began to swing much more favourably towards immigration. … to political scientists who study “thermostatic” politics, this development is no surprise at all. Public opinion often moves against the prevailing party, especially if they are perceived to have gone “too far” in one direction. The phenomenon was first explored in the 1990s with reference to fiscal policy, but in recent years it has been particularly evident in the realm of immigration policy. While these swings in opinion polls can make it seem as if people don’t know their own minds, they can be a useful democratic check on governments by sending bright flashing warning lights when policies stray too far from the public’s comfort zone. The problem comes when politicians misinterpret those signals. When people tell pollsters they want less immigration, or think it is bad for the country overall (or the converse), they are often expressing an opinion about how things appear to be going in that moment relative to their preferences, rather than a deep shift in their underlying views. According to Alexander Kustov, a political scientist, most Americans’ views are quite stable and moderate: they support immigration that is controlled and in the national interest, and oppose flows that are disorderly or under-enforced. In the US, he argues the Trump administration over-interpreted dissatisfaction with high immigration under Joe Biden, and implemented policies that went too far for many voters. “People don’t necessarily change their idea about their ideal immigration policy, but they can react to what the government is currently doing,” he told me. “A lot of people are not happy with what the Trump administration are doing — right now we’re not talking about border enforcement, we’re talking about people not just getting harassed, but killed.” But similarly, he added, pro-immigration advocates would be making a mistake to interpret the recent, more favourable swing towards immigration as a deep-seated ideological shift in attitudes. The recent history of UK immigration policy offers another cautionary tale. After the 2016 Brexit referendum, public concern about immigration fell. This was partly because net migration statistics declined, but also because people felt a sense of catharsis and control, says Sunder Katwala, director of British Future, a think-tank. By 2019, the public ranked immigration as only the ninth biggest issue of concern, according to Ipsos polling. But when the Conservative government liberalised visa routes for students and care workers between 2019 and 2022, that helped net migration to surge. And so, too, did public concern. Today’s Labour government has implemented another sharply restrictive turn in immigration policy. As Kustov and researcher Caitlyn Yates argue, thermostatic public opinion should be a useful check on politicians. Instead it seems to have helped to magnify the pendulum swing in the UK. The government over-interprets and overreacts to a change in public opinion, which reacts in turn, prompting a sudden swing the other way. Source: Financial Times HEY READERS, THANK YOU for opening the Chartbook email. I hope it brightens your day. I enjoy putting out the newsletter, but tbh, what keeps this flow going is the generosity of those readers who clicked the subscription button. If you are persuaded to click, please consider the annual subscription of $50. It is both better value for you and a much better deal for me, as it involves only one credit card charge. Why feed the payments companies if we don’t have to. Subscribe Anna Airy, Shop for Machining 15-Inch Shells: Singer Manufacturing Company, Clydebank, Glasgow, 1918 Racing for a vaccine … we have been here before! The deadly Ebola outbreak in two African countries driven by a virus species with no vaccine has triggered an urgent search for a potential jab, in a test of troubled global efforts to avert threats posed by emerging diseases. A World Health Organization advisory group is due to would meet on Tuesday to recommend candidate jabs to prioritise for clinical trials, the global health body said. It will assess data including an analysis by the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (Cepi), which was set up after failures in the international response to a previous Ebola crisis. The latest Ebola outbreak in Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda has infected hundreds of people and killed more than 80, health authorities say. Cepi’s reaction will be a crucial indicator of its progress towards its wider goal of producing vaccines for pandemic threats in just 100 days, despite steep cuts to international health funding. “If there was ever a time that we could show the world why Cepi is needed and show the world why the 100-day mission is needed, it’s now,” Nicole Lurie, the organisation’s executive director for preparedness and response, told the FT. “We’re happy to accept that responsibility, but obviously we need help from partners — particularly financial help in the long run.” DR Congo and Uganda would make the final decision on whether to press ahead with any vaccine candidates endorsed for clinical trials by the WHO experts, the global health body said. “Other ethical and community acceptability issues will be considered,” said the WHO, which declared the latest outbreak a public health emergency of international concern on Sunday. “This will be important to make sure that the trial, if it happens, will be adequately communicated to the population.” Lurie said Cepi had provided information from a survey of research teams and companies working on drugs that might be effective against the Bundibugyo virus behind the outbreak. The organisation hoped soon to announce partners in the quest for a jab, she added, although she declined to give a timescale for when one might be developed. Cepi’s Nicole Laurie said global health bodies were ‘getting some live-fire drills’ with hantavirus and the latest Ebola outbreak. The hunt for a vaccine should be helped by scientific advances including the use of artificial intelligence to find drugs active against viruses, Lurie said. Existing jabs against the Zaire Ebola virus responsible for many previous outbreaks might provide a basis for tackling the Bundibugyo species, she added. “We’ll see how far and how fast we can get,” Lurie said, adding that Cepi had done preliminary work recently on a possible jab for the rat-borne hantavirus responsible for a recent fatal outbreak on a cruise ship. “Both with hantavirus and now with Ebola, [we] are getting some live-fire drills.” Source: Michael Peel in the Financial Times Dad-chat is coming for dad-books. (By Pamela Paul and Jeffrey A. Trachtenberg in the WSJ) They were the go-to gifts for Father’s Day: a book about some little-known chapter of World War II, the sweeping narrative of a shipwreck, perhaps the latest presidential biography. These days, dad books are a dying breed. Nonfiction book sales have been in decline for the past four years, and are now the most challenged segment of the print book market. Publishers say certain types of books still fare well—including celebrity memoirs and religious titles. But in recent years, print sales in such categories as biography, current affairs and business and economics—what publishers refer to as “serious nonfiction” and which tend to resonate especially with men—have fallen considerably. Sales of nonfiction print titles were down nearly 8% through May 9 this year, and sales of books about politics and current affairs were down 19%, according to book tracker Circana BookScan. Publishing has long been subject to cyclical changes, with trends in format and genre taking over bookshelves in grand sweeps. (Remember the adult coloring-book craze? Or the stratospheric rise of romantasy?) But many in publishing believe the decline in serious nonfiction is more existential. “The trend couldn’t be clearer,” said Jonathan Karp, the former chief executive of Simon & Schuster and publisher of the new Simon Six imprint. “This is a sea change and people should wake up and realize we’re living in a new world.” One culprit for the shift: a new media diet for fans of more serious nonfiction. … Sixty-two percent of men and 54% of women consumed a podcast in the prior month, according to a recent survey by Edison Research at SSRS, up from 46% and 39%, respectively, in 2023. “When we have internal meetings to talk about this problem, it always comes around to podcasts,” said Jonathan Burnham, president and publisher of the Harper Group at HarperCollins Publishers. “The man who wants to read American history is now tuning into one of the many good podcasts about history that lends the quiet attention to a serious subject he’s looking for. It makes the idea of sitting down with a 700-page Ron Chernow book less appealing. You’ve scratched that itch.” Source: Wall Street Journal Remarkable report by Novara from the nationalist rally in London in mid May. Anna Airy, Leopard Moth and Plums, 1915 If you’ve scrolled this far, you know you want to click: Subscribe
French Business Confidence Languishes Below Long-Term Average
French business confidence remained weak in May, adding to evidence that the fallout from the Iran war is weighing on domestic demand in the euro area’s second-largest economy.
Sterling steady but weak business activity data weighs
The pound was steady against the dollar on Thursday as broader currency markets focused on developments in the Iran war, while traders digested some worse-than-expected surveys of British business activity.
Senate advances bill aimed at ending Iran war as Cassidy, after primary loss, flips to support it
The Senate advanced legislation Tuesday that seeks to force President Donald Trump to withdraw from the Iran war, as a growing number of Republicans defied the president's wishes.
Goldman Sachs, Moelis Say Business as Usual Amid Iran Conflict
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s international co-heads say the turbulent start to the year has done little to deter clients, underscoring Wall Street’s bullish outlook despite events like the Iran war.
The Middle East Oil Crisis Has Already Cost Global Businesses $25 Billion
Global companies are raising prices, cutting production and preserving cash as the Iran war drives oil and gas costs sharply higher.
‘Won’t be anything left’: Trump issues warning to Iran after national security team meeting
President Donald Trump met with top members of his national security team on Saturday to discuss the path forward on the Iran war, a source familiar with meeting told CNN, a day before he said Tehran “better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them.”
The Iran War Is Crippling One of the World’s Wealthiest Nations
Iranian attacks have paralyzed Qatar’s vital gas exports and are stalling the tourism and business pivots that were intended to anchor its future growth.
Trump defends saying he isn’t thinking about Americans’ finances amid Iran talks
The president also said he’s not considering the political implications of the Iran war on the midterms, when Republicans will be defending slim majorities in each chamber.
What Americans quietly stopped buying in April
Shoppers pulled back on spending in April as higher gas prices fueled by the Iran war meant less money left over for some nonessentials like clothing and furniture. Retail sales rose 0.5% in April, a slowdown from the revised growth level of 1.6% in March, according to Commerce Department data released Thursday. March marked the […]
UK Growth Surge Under Threat From Iran War, Political Turmoil
The UK kicked off the year with a burst of economic growth that is now at risk from the fallout from the Iran war and the prospect of a new prime minister.
What Trump says vs. what the intelligence says on Iran
One of the Trump administration’s key talking points on the Iran war is that the Islamic Republic’s missile and military capabilities were devastated in US-Israeli bombing campaigns before the ceasefire began in April.
Fact check: Trump falsely claims the inflation rate was just 1.7% prior to the Iran war
After newly released Consumer Price Index figures showed that the year-over-year inflation rate was 3.8% in April, the highest in nearly three years, President Donald Trump tried to reassure Americans about rising prices – in part by falsely claiming the inflation rate was just 1.7% prior to the war with Iran.
Trump says he ‘doesn’t think about Americans’ financial situation’ as he heads to China for talks with Xi Jinping
President says he ‘doesn’t think about anybody’ when questioned on financial impact of the Iran war as he departed for Beijing
Trump Says Americans’ Economic Pain Is Not a Consideration for the Iran War
Asked whether Americans’ financial situation was motivating him to make a deal, President Trump said bluntly, “Not even a little bit.”
Hegseth faces bipartisan grilling about weapons drawdown during the Iran war
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is facing tough questions from Republican and Democratic lawmakers about the Trump administration’s end game for the Iran war, the cost of the conflict and its
Inflation continued to rise in April as Iran war impacted energy prices
Inflation continued to rise in April as consumer price growth has picked up due to the impact of the Iran war on energy markets and gas prices.
How the Iran war could weaken Trump in his strongman showdown with Xi
Donald Trump’s summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping this week is a capstone event meant to demonstrate the president’s indelible mark on world history.
Trump Endorses Feeble Way to Lower Gas Prices
President Trump has endorsed suspending the federal gas tax, which won’t do much to solve the problem he created when he started the Iran war.
Morgan Stanley MD shares when he thinks rate cuts are coming
Morgan Stanley's Andrew Slimmon thinks the market could see a rate cut in six months if the Iran war ends soon.
The Iran war has changed. Trump’s talking points have not
Like Lucy with the football, President Donald Trump keeps teasing that a deal to end the war with Iran is nearly over.
China says exports grew at faster pace in April, rising 14.1% from a year ago
China says exports have risen 14.1% in April from a year earlier, despite the Iran war and lingering impacts from higher U.S. tariffs.
Sony forecasts lower gaming business sales amid memory price surge
STORY: Sony forecast lower sales in its gaming business due to a memory chip price surge.The tech giant said Friday annual sales in the segment would fall 6% to $28 billion.It also blamed lower hardware sales as its PlayStation 5 ages.Although the Japanese company said it expects gaming profit to rise 30%.That's due to higher first-party software sales and no repeat of the impairment loss it recorded a year earlier.Sony has been praised by analysts in recent years for its transformation into an entertainment powerhouse.But markets have grown concerned about the impact of AI on its business, while Sony also faces a perceived lack of growth catalysts.Both factors have weighed on shares in recent months.Investors are also concerned about the impact of a memory-chip price surge.As well as disruption to supply chains from the Iran war on margins at electronics manufacturers.The firm said it sold 1.5 million PS5 consoles in the fourth quarter, which was a 46% drop on the same period a year earlier.Looking ahead, the PS5 is expected to receive a major boost from the launch of the delayed "Grand Theft Auto VI."The game is due to release in November.Sony said in February it had secured the minimum quantity of memory needed to manage the year-end shopping season. Sony also said it sees higher profits at its pictures and chips units but a lower profit at its music business.The group reported operating profit for the year ended March rose 13.4% to $9.2 billion - below analyst forecasts. Meanwhile, rival Nintendo said it expects to sell 16.5 million units of its Switch 2 console in the financial year ending March 2027.It also projects profit to rise 2.7% to $2.36 billion.But, like with Sony, investors are concerned about the possible impact of a memory price surge on margins.
Trump is not getting what he initially wanted from the Iran war
It remains to be seen what, if anything, comes from the latest Iran war peace talks. President Donald Trump has claimed a deal was imminent before. And the agreement on the table seems to be preliminary, regardless.
House Republican Proposes Bill to Wind Down the Iran War
Representative Tom Barrett, a Michigan Republican facing a tough re-election race, introduced a bill to impose limits the use of military force in Iran and end the fighting this summer.
Is the FDA Really Suppressing Science? Plus. . .
It’s Thursday, May 7. This is The Front Page, your daily window into the world of The Free Press—and our take on the world at large. Today: Aaron MacLean says Trump is poised to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in the Iran war. Joe Klein on the life of CNN founder Ted Turner. Jillian Lederman on why cruise ships are here to stay. And much more. But first: Is the FDA suppressing science? On Tuesday, The New York Times published a story with an alarming takeaway. “FDA Blocked Publication of Research Finding Covid and Shingles Vaccines Were Safe,” read the headline. It is the latest in a string of stories that all have the same message: The Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and other agencies, are engaged in a cover-up—and silencing scientists trying to get the word out about the Covid vaccine. What all these stories suggest—some more subtly than others—is that the outsiders now running the public health establishment, officials such as Marty Makary at the FDA and Jay Bhattacharya at the National Institutes of Health, are on a revenge tour. That they are doing harm to the country to get back at the scientists and bureaucrats who ostracized them for deviating from the public-health consensus during the pandemic. It’s a seductive narrative. But is it true? That’s the question we address in our latest editorial. —The Editors Read [ Marty Makary's FDA Has All the Right Enemies ](https://www.thefp.com/p/marty-makary-vaccine-study-fda) [ Trump Blinks First ](https://www.thefp.com/p/iran-peace-deal-pakistan-trump-strait-of-hormuz) Aaron MacLean In return for no detectable concessions, President Trump this week gave up on forcing open the Strait of Hormuz. Now, the Trump administration looks desperate for a deal to end the war with Iran. It’s easy to understand the desire to end the war, but are they blowing the chance at victory? Aaron MacLean makes sense of the administration’s latest moves—and Iran’s response—in his column today. Read full story Aaron MacLean and Niall Ferguson: Live in New York City Join Aaron MacLean and Niall Ferguson on May 19 for a live recording of School of War at the iconic New York Historical. In a conversation as timely as it is wide-ranging, Aaron and Niall will explore the strategic stakes of the moment, including the Middle East, China, and the future of American leadership on the global stage. Get Tickets Now [ Ted Turner, the Optimist Who Built CNN ](https://www.thefp.com/p/ted-turner-cnn-tribute) Joe Klein The man who gave us CNN and the 24-hour news cycle, Ted Turner, died Wednesday at the age of 87. Today, political writer Joe Klein—who almost ghostwrote Turner’s autobiography—remembers his friend, the American media mogul who stood out for his idealism and lack of a filter—something that got Turner in trouble more than once. “His was not a traditional intelligence, but one of horizon: Ted saw things before other people did,” Joe writes. Read full story [ Nothing Can Sink the Cruise Ship ](https://www.thefp.com/p/cruise-ship-hantavirus) Jillian Lederman A viral outbreak on a cruise ship that left three passengers dead has left some people wondering: Are cruise ships on the way out? Not so fast, says Jillian Lederman, who has been on many a cruise herself. Read her piece on why 38 million people a year take a cruise—and aren’t about to stop. Read full story [ The Great Writers Who Were Terrible People ](https://www.thefp.com/p/the-great-writers-who-were-terrible) Shilo Brooks Throughout history, some of the greatest literary geniuses have also been immoral bigots. In the latest episode of Old School, Shilo Brooks is joined by Eli Lake for a conversation about those geniuses, from Voltaire to Norman Mailer and Roald Dahl—and why we should read their work despite their odious prejudices. Listen on MORE FROM THE FREE PRESS [ Inside the Digital Intifada ](https://www.thefp.com/p/digital-intifada-social-media-hamas-terror) Warren Kinsella Read full story [ This Week in American History: Trump’s Over-Arching Problem ](https://www.thefp.com/p/this-week-in-american-history-trumps-over-arching-problem) Jonathan Horn Read full story [ Humanity Is Still Evolving—and Fast ](https://www.thefp.com/p/humanity-is-still-evolvingand-fast) Razib Khan Read full story THE NEWS Thirteen D.C. Metropolitan Police officers have been placed on administrative leave and could face termination after an internal investigation found evidence that crime statistics were manipulated to make the city look safer. The Republican-led House Oversight Committee previously alleged that former D.C. police chief Pamela Smith pressured officers to skew data. Tennessee Republicans unveiled a redrawn U.S. House map yesterday that would split up Memphis’s black-majority Democratic district, the latest move in a nationwide push to redraw congressional boundaries ahead of the midterms. The effort follows a Supreme Court ruling last week on Louisiana’s districts, which Tennessee House Speaker Cameron Sexton said gave states the green light to redraw maps along partisan lines. Israel struck Beirut for the first time since a ceasefire with Hezbollah took effect last month, saying it targeted a commander of the militant group’s elite Radwan force in the city’s southern suburbs. The strikes risk destabilizing that truce at a delicate moment, as Iran and the U.S. report progress toward a deal to resolve their own standoff. The U.S. Air Force is aiming for a Fourth of July delivery of a Boeing 747 gifted by Qatar, hoping to add it to the Air Force One fleet in time for the U.S.’s 250th anniversary, Reuters reported. (For more on the controversy surrounding the aircraft, read Jed Rubenfeld’s piece “It’s a Terrible Idea, but Trump Probably Can Accept a Free Jet from Qatar.”) Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick testified privately before Congress that he has no memory of why he and his family dined on Jeffrey Epstein’s private island in 2012, according to Reuters. The admission contradicts Lutnick’s earlier claim that he had cut ties with the convicted sex offender well before that visit. Weeks before a former JPMorgan investment banker filed a lawsuit packed with explosive allegations, the bank reportedly offered him $1 million to settle his sexual assault and harassment claims, according to The Wall Street Journal. The suit, filed by Chirayu Rana, alleges he was sexually assaulted by a female colleague, subjected to racial discrimination, and forced into a degrading dynamic at work. JPMorgan says the claims lack merit, and the female colleague’s lawyers call the accusations fabricated. A new report from the Hartford Institute for Religion Research shows that, for the first time in roughly 20 years, church attendance is trending upward, with more people volunteering and clergy expressing renewed optimism. The study’s authors described the findings, based on a survey of more than 7,400 congregations, as showing signs of widespread recovery from low attendance numbers.
Democrats see Senate control within reach — but some big hurdles remain
The political terrain remains forbidding, but the president’s crumbling approval ratings and the Iran war’s weight on the economy offer the party an opening.
What’s the domestic benefit of the Iran War? NewsNight panel debates
Shipping firms are being whipsawed by changing stances and risks as they wait for Hormuz to reopen
With hundreds of vessels still stuck in the Persian Gulf and costs piling up, shipping companies are being whipsawed by uncertainty over how and when the Strait of Hormuz might reopen more than two months into the Iran war.
US and Iran closing in on memorandum aimed at ending war, source says
The United States and Iran are moving closer to an agreement on a short memorandum to end the Iran war, a regional source familiar with the negotiations said, although Trump administration officials cautioned that talks had previously fallen apart at the last minute.
Singapore Defers Considering Political Pay Review on Iran War
Singapore will postpone considering an independent panel’s recommendations on the salaries of political office holders until the economic impact of the Iran war becomes clearer, a government minister said.
WATCH LIVE: White House briefing with Rubio may address Vatican trip, Strait of Hormuz efforts
Secretary of State Marco Rubio will travel to Rome and Vatican City this week in a bid to ease rising tensions between Trump and Pope Leo XIV over U.S. policies, particularly the Iran war.
German firms abroad grow more pessimistic as Iran war disrupts supply chains
German firms operating abroad have become more pessimistic about their prospects, with nearly one in three expecting economic conditions to worsen as the Iran war exposes vulnerabilities in global supply chains, a survey showed on Tuesday.
Trump Tries to Downplay Economic Effects of the Iran War
At a White House event for Small Business Week, he described the economy as “roaring” and predicted that gas prices would go down soon.
Democrats look for a foothold in Iowa as Vance visits to boost GOP candidate
Republican Donald Trump may have won the state by double digits in the last presidential election, but growing dissatisfaction with his leadership and rising costs from the Iran war could help set the stage for Democrats to make previously unattainable gains.
The Latest: Trump launches a new effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
U.S. forces have launched an effort to guide commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, where hundreds have been stuck since the Iran war began.