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Stability AI Raises $76M Series B, Backed by Major Entertainment Companies
Stability AI, the startup behind image generation model Stable Diffusion, has raised $76 million in Series B funding, bringing its total funding to $232
Mag Mile recovery gains momentum with a drop in vacancy and infusions of capital
North Michigan Avenue's availability rate ticked down about 3% year over year, continuing the shopping strip's recovery as foot traffic and retailers return.
Plan to cut number of polling sites in a major Texas county
Plans in one of Texas’ largest counties to use dozens fewer polling location than previous years is drawing protests from Democrats who say the reductions could create confusion in the November midterm elections
Plan to cut number of polling sites in a major Texas county draws protests as Senate race looms
Plans in one of Texas’ largest counties to use dozens fewer polling location than previous years is drawing protests from Democrats who say the reductions could create confusion in the November midterm elections.
The popular diabetes drug metformin has been used for decades — and scientists just figured out its main mechanism
Scientists have debated whether the diabetes drug metformin acts primarily in the intestines or the liver. New findings clear up this confusion.
Apple TV’s sci-fi thriller Dark Matter gets even trippier in season 2
Embrace the confusion.
Shapiro, RFK Jr. clash after Pennsylvania health officials report 2 measles-related deaths
Flock Cameras, the ‘Surveillance State,’ and a Political Reckoning | WSJ Politics Newsletter for Aug. 27
Plus, Hakeem Jeffries scrambles to find balance among the Democratic Party’s competing factions, and states face confusion over new mail-in ballot rules.
SJSU researchers join $30M NSF Science and Technology Center to tackle turbulence NewsCenter | SJSU
San José State University researchers and students will have the opportunity to help tackle one of science's most difficult problems as part of a new $30 million National Science Foundation Science and Technology Center focused on understanding and predicting turbulence, with applications including fusion energy, astrophysics and hypersonic flight.
SEEING DOUBLE: Second Dan Sullivan advances, setting up bizarre Alaska Senate ballot
Dan Sullivan Jr. advances to Alaska's general election, complicating the race for Sen. Dan Sullivan as ranked-choice voting amplifies name confusion.
Rewriting the Vaccine Schedule Without Science at the Table
Dr Daskalakis explains the confusion a recent executive order on vaccines can wrought, and why the MMR vaccine cannot simply be split into three shots.
Stroke-related imaging costs have tripled in recent years, despite declining reperfusion rates
A new analysis has revealed an unexpected relationship between stroke-related imaging volumes and the use of IVT and EVT treatments.
Scientists discover asymmetric diffusion of magnetic skyrmions in simulations
Magnetic skyrmions are nanoscale spin textures that can behave like particles and move and diffuse in real space. This makes them promising information carriers for future memory and computing technologies. A new computational study in npj Spintronics shows how geometry and topology can guide asymmetric thermal diffusion of magnetic skyrmions, offering insights for unlocking unconventional computing paradigms, including future stochastic and neuromorphic computing devices for more efficient artificial intelligence (AI) applications.
Entertainment scheduled for Fergus Falls Concert Association season
The acts are as varied as the entertainment in the upcoming season of the Fergus Falls Concert Association.
Back-to-school: Mental health experts urge parents to set cell phone boundaries with kids
In May, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore signed a bill restricting cell phone use in schools.
Alaska Republicans scramble to educate voters on suspected Dem plant as 'ballot fatigue' threatens race
Dan Sullivan faces voter confusion from a candidate look-alike sharing his name as Alaska's ranked choice voting system adds complexity to the Senate race.
Why Polling Chaos Could Create Big Problems for American Politics
Bad polls. Misleading betting odds. Surveys meant to shape narratives. Ahead of the midterms and 2028, there is suddenly serious confusion about candidate strength and voter sentiment.
Scientists crushed diamond beyond Neptune-like pressures—and solved a 20-year mystery
Extreme experiments have revealed how diamond behaves at crushing pressures beyond those inside Neptune and Uranus, resolving a decades-old conflict between theory and observation. The results could help scientists boost fusion energy output while revealing more about the exotic diamond rain hidden inside ice giant planets.
Confused about Big Bend area border plans? Here’s what you need to know.
There's been a lot of confusion this year about the Trump administration's plan for new border barriers across the Big Bend region of West Texas. Here's a rundown of what federal border agencies say they're planning.
Charlie Kirk was targeted for his politics, prosecutors say bullet engraving shows
GOP senator, ex-House Dem emerge from Alaska’s ‘jungle primary’ despite far-left meddling
Dan Sullivan and Mary Peltola advance from Alaska's jungle primary, but a second Dan Sullivan on the ballot raises election confusion claims.
Iran is losing control of the Strait of Hormuz
The battle for control of the Strait of Hormuz has become the focal point of the Iran war. Over the past several months, both Iran and the United States have claimed the upper hand – and the competing rhetoric has caused considerable confusion and doubt.
Hope in action is connecting with the future of US politics
I just got a major infusion of hope and inspiration after spending a weekend with young public servants from across the country.
Rural Health Transformation Program Rolls Out in Texas, to Excitement and Confusion
Healthcare providers in Texas say the Rural Health Transformation Program provides much-needed funding. But they worry about tight timelines, lingering questions and awkward restrictions.
Health policy must be driven by data, not political grandstanding
'The administration’s anti-vaccine rhetoric will only sow widespread confusion, ultimately driving up rates of entirely preventable childhood diseases,' writes an L.A. Times reader.
Sailor went overboard USS Abraham Lincoln earlier this month raising mental health concerns
Fruit fusion: how will the market react to China’s lychee-longan creation?
Lindsay Clancy murder trial continues with focus on her mental health treatment
Blending Fusion Science, AI to Predict DIII-D Tokamak Behavior
Data scientists from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility and partner institutions have developed a deployable machine learning (ML) framework that can adaptively predict changes in a magnetic confinement fusion research machine’s hardware. The innovative method, recently published in the journal Machine Learning with Applications, promises to help make the operation of fusion devices more stable and accelerate humanity’s pursuit of a superabundant
NIH Director Dr. Jay Bhattacharya says "I trust the science" on childhood vaccines amid measles outbreak
NIH Director Dr. Jay Bhattacharya says "I trust the science" on childhood vaccines
Biloxi business owners, city discuss Howard Avenue parking at monthly meeting
City orders traffic study as confusion over hash marks, signage persists
Small Business Catalyst Fund spotlight: Korea Taqueria
Discover how Korea Taqueria, a Korean and Mexican fusion restaurant, expanded from a single food cart to multiple locations across Philadelp
Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens in tight contest as Michigan counts Democratic Senate primary votes
Jackie the eagle faces health complications as anemia worsens despite transfusion
KMPH Fox 26 is the Central Valley's news leader, covering Fresno, California and the surrounding area, including Clovis, Madera, Hanford, Visalia, Biola, Kerman, Tranquillity, San Joaquin, Reedley, Coalinga, Avenal, Lemoore, Tulare, Selma, Caruthers, Tollhouse, Three Rivers, Porterville, and Merced.
East meets Appalachia at Bagaduce Music House Party
Indian-roots fusion duo Aditi Sethi and Jay Brown will perform at the Second Wednesday House Party at Bagaduce Music on Wednesday, Aug. 12.
Southwest Boulevard streetscape project brings new barriers, restaurants see business rebound
A new set of concrete barriers installed as part of a road diet near Southwest Boulevard and West 25th Street is creating confusion for some drivers.
Cyclospora confusion? Four questions about the parasite in Minnesota, answered
Minnesotans can be reassured that the large multistate outbreak of cyclosporiasis infections, a gastrointestinal illness caused by cyclospora, has not yet reached the state.
Change to Census Data Processing Methods Threatens Health Policy Research and Federal Data Systems
On June 4, 2026, the Commerce Department issued Department Administrative Order (DAO) 216-26, Disclosure Avoidance for Statistical Products, which bans a class of privacy techniques called “noise infusion” in all data products coming out of the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). This order, which was made effective immediately without opportunity for […]
How Louisiana colleges will use an infusion of tax money for their sports programs
Scholarships and budget balancing are the main ways athletics programs at Louisiana colleges plan to use their allotments of tax revenue
Chronically ill people face confusion over new Medicaid work rules and ‘medically frail’ exemption
Patients, advocates, and experts fear the difficulty in documenting a frailty exemption to Medicaid work requirements will lead to millions losing coverage.
Mamdani tries to clear up confusion on new tax on luxury second homes
Only the approximately 17,000 owners who got a letter needed to pay or prove an exemption.
The power plant players unlocking the grid | Investors Lab
History is full of aha moments where an apparent failure was actually the breakthrough people didn't know they needed. Take champagne, discovered when French winemakers kept finding their bottles exploding under pressure. Or sticky notes, developed from a glue that was rejected by leadership at 3M for being too weak, but later redeployed for the purpose we all know and love. Nuclear fusion just experienced another of these serendipitous discoveries. For decades, it wasn't clear how the subatomic particles known as alpha particles would affect the turbulence that drains heat from a reactor's core, preventing the reactor from reaching self-sustaining fusion. Now, new simulations suggest that the particles help. The new research turns what was once viewed as a potential operational hindrance into a critical performance booster. SN's Emily Conover has the info blast.
Moment of Science: Air Quality
From smoke to dust to pollen, our air is ever-changing! Dan Smith shows some of the dynamics and definitions that factor into local, national, and global air quality. 🌫⚠
McMahon proposes 2 questions to voters on Onondaga County office term limits
This comes after weeks of confusion and political banter after McMahon, vocally opposed to efforts by the county legislature to pass bills on term limits, signed bill that would do just that before sending a new version that vetoed the legislation, calling it a “clerical error.”
In novel program, the Pentagon will pay civilian ambulances for blood
The Pentagon will test paying ambulances for blood transfusions, a move experts hope expands lifesaving prehospital care.
The Fed confronts an unusually confusing economic moment
The Federal Reserve has remained mum about interest rates as inflation concerns have heightened, leading to confusion about the state of the US economy.
Cyclospora outbreak dubbed ‘lettuce-gate’ as health concerns spread across U.S.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced hundreds more have been infected with cyclospora — bringing the nationwide total to 1,947 as of Friday.
Materials-Driven Fusion Approach Opens New Era for Nuclear Science
Fusion at high temperatures powers the sun and, if harnessed, could provide a potential source of energy here on Earth. But controlling fusion reactions has other benefits.
Confusion for residents after Legionella bacteria found in Lower East Side building
Residents are confused about water issues at an apartment Complex in Alphabet City.
When It Comes to Fusion, Materials Matter
Fusion at high temperatures powers the sun and, if harnessed, could provide a potential source of energy here on Earth. But controlling fusion reactions has other benefits. The process also generates subatomic particles called neutrons that are used in a range of applications spanning medicine, research, and national security. Now, scientists at the University of California, Davis (UC Davis), and the Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) have found that the materials surrounding a fusion reaction can dramatically increase how often it occurs, particularly at low energies where fusion is rare. The study was published July 18 in Nature Communications. Their approach sets up a way to study and engineer nuclear reactions within solid materials, opening a new field of “materials-driven fusion.” Instead of designing materials just to survive the harsh conditions of fusion, researchers might be able to design materials that boost the reaction in specific conditions, similar to the way catalysts speed up chemical processes. “It gives you a new knob to turn that you didn’t have before,” said Arun Persaud, head of the Fusion Science & Ion Beam Technology group in Berkeley Lab’s Accelerator Technology & Applied Physics (ATAP) Division. “If we understand this effect better, it opens the door to engineering new materials that would affect the fusion rate under certain conditions. Someday future progress might enable more compact and efficient neutron generators, which have all kinds of applications, like cargo screening, planetary science, and medical therapy and imaging.” In the experiment, researchers used two different methods to pack deuterium, a heavy form of hydrogen atoms that is often used in fusion, into thin foils of palladium and titanium. They then fired a beam of deuterium ions at the foils at different energies and measured how often fusion happened. Then they compared the rates from the different materials and methods with the “bare” fusion reaction (not in a material). The team found that fusion rates depended on how the deuterium was loaded into the metal foils. The biggest effect was at the lowest energies, below 2.5 kiloelectronvolts (keV), where theory predicts fusion rates drop off sharply. Instead, researchers found a surprising plateau: Some samples showed elevated fusion rates roughly a quintillion times higher than bare fusion reactions. (A quintillion is a 1 followed by 18 zeroes.) Researchers are not exactly sure why that’s happening, though they have some ideas and ways to test them. The electrons and defects within the material might partially shield repulsive electrostatic forces between deuterium nuclei, making it easier for them to get close together and fuse. Tuning the electronic structure, defects, and composition of materials could help make nuclear reactions happen more readily. “It comes down to better understanding the mechanism so that we can try to enhance it,” said corresponding author Jeremy Munday, a professor at UC Davis. “We’ve seen that we can increase fusion rates, but what is the limit? Can we bring it to lower temperatures or energies? There’s obviously a lot of interest and excitement about fusion, so if there’s something we can learn about the physics at these lower energy scales, maybe there’s something we can translate to other areas of nuclear science.” The team plans to explore a wider range of materials and continue probing the unexpected fusion plateau at lower energies. Their work establishes a reproducible experimental platform to study how solid materials influence nuclear reactions, creating a new area of research that links fusion science with materials science and chemistry. “The work shows conclusively that the material environment where fusion occurs at low temperatures is an active participant rather than a passive container,” said Cameron Geddes, director of ATAP. “That adds a new dimension to fusion research.” This work was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E). ### Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) is committed to groundbreaking research focused on discovery science and solutions for abundant and reliable energy supplies. The lab’s expertise spans materials, chemistry, physics, biology, earth and environmental science, mathematics, and computing. Researchers from around the world rely on the lab’s world-class scientific facilities for their own pioneering research. Founded in 1931 on the belief that the biggest problems are best addressed by teams, Berkeley Lab and its scientists have been recognized with 17 Nobel Prizes. Berkeley Lab is a multiprogram national laboratory managed by the University of California for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Science. DOE’s Office of Science is the single largest supporter of basic research in the physical sciences in the United States, and is working to address some of the most pressing challenges of our time. For more information, please visit energy.gov/science.
Denver Health expands whole blood program to bring life-saving transfusions to patients before hospital arrival
Harnessing Abundant Electricity From the Sun—and Other CU Boulder Science Tapped for Genesis Mission
Three CU Boulder-led projects and three collaborative projects selected through the U.S. Department of Energy's Genesis Mission. Research will advance artificial intelligence for fusion energy, quantum computing, particle physics and water prediction. Awards recognize CU Boulder's leadership in applying AI to some of the nation's most complex scientific challenges.
Business owner concerned as road closure remains
“The road closing has caused a lot of confusion about ‘is the street open, is it not open,’” said Magana.
5 projects at UW–Madison aimed at transforming science and energy with AI receive DOE Genesis Mission funding
The projects, spanning fusion to critical minerals, are among 278 funded awards to national labs, companies, universities and non-profits in order to accelerate breakthroughs in energy, scientific discovery and national security through a new platform that combines AI, supercomputing, quantum systems and advanced scientific instruments.
New Report Examines How States Can Protect Pregnant/Postpartum Enrollees from Losing Health Coverage Due to Work Reporting Requirements (And Why We Should Still Be Worried)
As awareness has grown about the new Medicaid work reporting requirements (WRRs) that have already been put in place in some states but are mandated to begin January 1 of next year, it has created layers of confusion about who will be required to report work hours. Our new report on pregnant women and WRRs […]
TECfusions, a Rapidly Growing Developer and Operator of AI-Ready Data Centers and Power Infrastructure, Signs Business Combination Agreement with Apex Treasury Corp.
TECfusions is positioned where accelerating AI data center demand meets a scarcity of power-secured capacity. Company ethos centered on the fusion of ‘Technology, Environment, Community’ focuses on delivering AI-ready capacity while advancing environmental redevelopment and local community outcomes. Unique adaptive reuse strategy designed to convert legacy industrial sites into AI-ready, power-enabled data center infrastructure, accelerating deployment in power-constrained markets. The Transacti
Messy primaries plague both major political parties, causing chaos and confusion in the midterms
As midterm campaigning heats up, both major political parties face unexpected challenges
Messy primaries plague both major political parties, causing chaos and confusion in the midterms
As midterm campaigning heats up, both major political parties face unexpected challenges.
First measles case in more than 10 years confirmed in Delaware, health officials say
Wolford v. Lopez rightly arms permit holders, business owners
t Last week, I wrote about the birthright citizenship case, one of several major Supreme Court decisions handed down over the past few weeks. Today, I want to look at what is probably the second most controversial decision, and one surrounded by a great deal of confusion and misinformation.
Chicago barely makes top 20 in American College of Sports Medicine's 2026 America's Fittest Cities ranking
Chicago just barely made the top 20 in the American College of Sports Medicine's 2026 ranking of the country's fittest cities.
Deloitte Announces Framework, Digital Asset to Quantify, Communicate Sustainable Business Value
/PRNewswire/ -- Deloitte today unveiled Sustainability Fusion™, a new framework, digital tool, service offering and web-based evaluator designed to help the...
Quantum Computers Identify Nuclear Fusion Fuel Chemistry in Major First
Computing the future of fusion.
Call of Duty: Black Ops 1 and 2 Support Crossplay Between PS4 and PS5, Activision Confirms
Activision has clarified that its recently released Call of Duty: Black Ops 1 and 2 ports do in fact support crossplay between PS4 and PS5, following confusion from players online.
How Sen. Lindsey Graham's death impacts U.S. politics
New Medicaid work requirements in Nebraska prompt ‘extreme mass confusion’
In the first state to implement the Trump administration mandate, Medicaid participants are anxious for information — and are struggling to get it.
Apollo inks €3B equity deal for stake in Bayer's contraceptives business
Amid restructuring efforts, Bayer has addressed its need for a capital infusion in pharma under a deal
Spatial transcriptome for cell segmentation
Nature Computational Science - A diffusion-based multimodal framework called DISSECT leverages transcriptomic gradients to refine segmentation boundaries, enabling high-precision single-cell...
Trump never won Minnesota, but political experts say his grip on state GOP politics keeps growing
Minnesota Republicans head into an August primary shaped by a president who has lost the state three times but still commands outsized loyalty from its conservative base.
Virginia cannabis budget language triggers legal confusion, political fallout
Virginia’s decision to revive legal cannabis sales through the state budget instead of standalone legislation has triggered several days of confusion over the commonwealth’s marijuana laws, with lawmakers, local prosecutors, Virginia State Police and legislative officials offering differing interpretations of when key provisions take effect. Much of the confusion focused on two issues: whether Virginia’s long-delayed retail cannabis market had accidentally been moved up by a year and whether existing criminal penalties for marijuana possession and distribution involving people younger than 21 were still enforceable.
Quantum computing wielded to create extremely rare material critical to nuclear fusion
Nuclear fusion inches closer after scientists combine supercomputing, AI and quantum computing to blueprint a way to create more tritium.
International Business Machines (IBM) Unveils New AI Infrastructure, Is The Stock Fully Priced?
International Business Machines (IBM) stock has been in focus after a cluster of technology announcements, including quantum computing work on fusion energy, new z17 and LinuxONE 5 rack mount systems, and expanded cybersecurity partnerships. See our latest analysis for International Business Machines. Against this backdrop of quantum computing progress, new z17 and LinuxONE systems, and expanded cybersecurity partnerships, International Business Machines’ share price has moved sharply, with a...
CaroMont Health Opens CaroMont Hematology & Oncology in Belmont
CaroMont Health has opened CaroMont Hematology & Oncology in Belmont, expanding access to cancer and blood disorder care across the region. Located in the CaroMont Health Medical Pavilion on the campus of CaroMont Regional Medical Center in Belmont, the practice offers physician visits, infusion therapy and laboratory services in one convenient location, along with comprehensive hematology and medical oncology care including chemotherapy, immunotherapy, targeted therapy, hormone therapy and survivorship support. The opening is part of CaroMont Health's $200 million investment in cancer care, the second largest investment in the health system's history, which will double its oncology capacity across the region.
Here’s what life looks like after spinal fusion surgery
Learn what to expect after spinal fusion surgery, including recovery time, activity restrictions and tips for protecting your spine long-term.
Trump delivers ominous warning to political opponents at America 250 event
Putting the Science in Science-Fiction: Midwestern Hosts Booth at Phoenix Fan Fusion
Students, faculty, and staff taught anatomy of predators and prey, debunked creatures from cinema, and ignited passion for scientific inquiry
Survey Shows Japan's Business Sentiment Improving for a 5th Straight Quarter
TOKYO (AP) — Business sentiment among major Japanese manufacturers has improved for a fifth straight quarter, the Bank of Japan said in its quarterly “tankan” survey released Wednesday. The survey's so-called diffusion index rose to 22 from 17 in the previous quarter, the BOJ said. The index for ...
Minnesota's social media health warning law takes effect Wednesday. Here's what you need to know.
Scam Victims Report Billions Lost and Harm to Mental Health
Scam victims in the U.S. lost an estimated $68 billion in 2025, suffering widespread financial and emotional harm.
FDA approves surgical device for high-risk aortic procedures
The AMDS Hybrid Prosthesis was designed to help clinicians treat DeBakey Type 1 dissections complicated by malperfusion. It works as a complement to hemiarch replacement, preserving the native arch and making reinterventions possible if needed.
How NYC politics signal a larger shift across the U.S. ahead of 2026 midterm elections
Prediction market Kalshi sues Illinois over its push to regulate sports bets
Prediction market Kalshi sued Illinois on Tuesday, seeking to block new taxes and license requirements set to take effect July 1.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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