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How one lawyer built a $1.3 million firm on social media
An entrepreneur shifts from a traditional law firm to an AI-based legal service, gaining $650K funding and achieving $372K in revenue post-launch.
See inside Kemba Walker's new youth sports hub
The former Charlotte Hornets star says the academy is about creating opportunities for the next generation of athletes.
Deb Haaland Outlines Small Business Agenda in Address to Albuquerque Chamber
Native Vote 2026 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Deb Haaland (Laguna Pueblo) on Thursday outlined her vision for making New Mexico more welcoming to entrepreneurs and small businesses during an address to the Greater Albuquerque Chamber of Commerce, pledging to reduce regulatory barriers while investing in education, public safety, and economic development. Drawing on her own experience […]
Deb Haaland Outlines Small Business Agenda in Address to Albuquerque Chamber
Native Vote 2026 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Deb Haaland (Laguna Pueblo) on Thursday outlined her vision for making New Mexico more welcoming to entrepreneurs and small businesses during an addre...
General manager arrested for stealing over $40,000 from Black Canyon City business
An investigation found that financial records had been deleted, documentation was incomplete and deposits were missing.
Sabres acquire defenseman Olen Zellweger from Ducks for 2nd round pick, prospect
It's been a busy week for the Sabres.
General Atlantic Serves Up Djokovic Hire in Sports Push
The private-equity firm has already invested in a number of sports assets.
Meet ‘Pepper’ Baumer, The Man With Hot Sauce In His Blood
Hot sauce has been one of the hottest sectors of the food industry and third-generation owner ‘Pepper’ Baumer has built Crystal, his family’s century-old business, into a $50 million Southern staple.
Congress Revives SAFE Banking Bill For Cannabis Businesses
A bipartisan group of lawmakers has renewed the push to let banks serve state-legal cannabis businesses without fear of federal penalties.
Honda Strengthens Power Sports & Products Business With More Unified Structure
American Honda announced a restructuring of its Power Sports & Products center, aligning its Powersports, Power Equipment and Marine divisions under a unified structure.
Trump threatens 100% tariffs on Europe if countries tax digital services
He added that the new tax would supersede any previously negotiated trade deals
Your Social Security benefits could be cut by a quarter in 2032. Here’s what to know
Americans’ Social Security benefits will have to be cut by roughly a quarter in six years due to depleted funds, according to a June 9 report from the Social Security Board of Trustees. That’s months sooner than the group had estimated in 2025.
Texas Tech's Red Raider Meats Has Steak Down to a Science
The Lubbock university is training the next generation of agriculture scientists using revenue from selling some of the state's best beef
Phase 2 of restoration project underway at West Herr Performing Arts Center
Members of the Rochester Broadway Theatre League say this next phase of work includes expanding the theatre's Rothschild Lounge back to its original size.
The Venezuela Earthquakes Hit a Health System Already in Crisis
Firefighters are using cellphone lights because of a flashlight shortage, and an overwhelmed hospital in the disaster zone is operating without running water, one doctor said.
Scientists Baffled by Discovery of Rare “Pink Floyd” Spider Hidden in Home Walls - Futura-Sciences
The Birth of a “Pink Floyd” Spider Tiny, discreet, and quietly settled on urban walls, a new species of spider was recently discovered in Colombia—and christened as a tribute to the iconic rock band Pink Floyd. As part of a study published in the journal Zoosystematics and Evolution, South American...
Epic's Tim Sweeney Keeps Inventing Solutions To Problems That Are Already Solved
Quick, someone tell him what Discord is
Seattle’s Pioneer Square lands a new retailer
A bespoke diamond jewelry company opened a store in Pioneer Square. The CEO is optimistic about its future in downtown Seattle.
THE NEXT GENERATION TAKES THE TRACK: COPACI AND PANAM SPORTS LAUNCH ELITE CYCLING DEVELOPMENT CAMP IN TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
Young cyclists from across the Caribbean are gathering in Trinidad and Tobago […]
MAI-Code-1-Flash for Copilot Business and Copilot Enterprise
MAI-Code-1-Flash, Microsoft AI’s in-house coding model, is now generally available for GitHub Copilot Business and Copilot Enterprise, building on its recent expansion across Copilot surfaces. Purpose-built for coding and optimized…
Science Can Fully Explain Consciousness? By 326 Theories…
It’s supposed to be a given that machines or brain organoids might be conscious despite not knowing what that is or how it works — but preborn children can’t be…
John Bolton pleads guilty to illegally retaining classified information
His plea deal with federal prosecutors could help him avoid prison time
Ryman Hospitality Addresses Possible Sale of Opry Entertainment Group
Corporation officials say they are exploring the possible sale of a 70 percent stake in the entertainment entity, but there are no agreements in place and ‘no assurances any transaction will occur.’
CSUF Report Finds Family Businesses Drive Jobs and Revenue in Fullerton
The city of Fullerton is home to a vibrant entrepreneurial community, with family-owned businesses serving as a cornerstone of the local economy. The family business sector in Fullerton is the subject of a new report researched and published by Tim Schultz, the head of Cal State Fullerton’s Center for Family Business. Chethan Srikant, associate professor […]
Sports books see surge in Missouri World Cup betting
Sports gambling activity is up this month in Missouri with Kansas City hosting six FIFA World Cup matches.
Minuteman Press Franchise Owner Dave Forster Reflects on 40 Years in Minneapolis
MINNEAPOLIS, June 26, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Dave and Sandy Forster are the owners of Minuteman Press in Minneapolis, MN since February of 198...
Apple's OLED 'MacBook Ultra' Will Stick With M5 Pro and M5 Max Chips
Apple's upcoming high-end MacBook model featuring an OLED touchscreen display will use the company's current M5 Pro and M5 Max chips, according to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman. The new, top-of-the-line device will launch "between late this year and early next year," Gurman said, adopting the existing high-end Apple silicon chips rather than next-generation M6 versions.
Paxton’s support for IVF highlights broader divide among GOP
Anti-abortion activists believe life begins at conception, so many oppose IVF because it often destroys some embryos.
Apple’s Touch MacBook to Use M5 Pro and Max Chips, With M7 Models to Follow
Apple Inc.’s first-ever touch-screen laptop will rely on the company’s current high-end M5 chips, rather than next-generation silicon, though the company is working on a follow-up model with future M7 processors.
Vance Downplays Watergate and Compares Himself to Nixon
The vice president said that the scandal that ended Richard Nixon’s presidency would be “like a 12-hour news story” if it happened today and that the “deep state” had taken down Nixon.
Health experts keep Summerfest attendees healthy
On top of staying hydrated and wearing sunscreen, Aurora Health Care encourages wearing comfortable shoes and clothing.
How PENN’s US$360 Million Aurora Resort Shift At PENN Entertainment (PENN) Has Changed Its Investment Story
PENN Entertainment has opened the US$360 million Hollywood Casino and Hotel Aurora, replacing its former Fox River riverboat with a 388,500-square-foot, 24/7 land-based resort featuring over 1,000 slots, 50 table games, a sportsbook, 226-room hotel, spa, event center, and extensive dining options. The Aurora project, which created around 700 permanent roles and mirrors PENN’s broader shift into higher-amenity land-based properties, highlights how the company is reinvesting heavily to refresh...
Meet A Retriever—Manikanta Sirumalla, International Data Science Graduate Student And Entrepreneur - UMBC: University Of Maryland, Baltimore County
If you want help meeting a big new fitness goal, Manikanta Sirumalla may have the app for you. Manikanta came to UMBC from India as a graduate student
Texas Democrats meet for convention amid questions about party unity
Democrats see state Rep. James Talarico, D-Austin, as the best opportunity to flip the long-held Republican U.S. Senate seat and want to see how he will win over Black voters.
Democrats call on Mills administration to settle pay dispute
The MSEA is seeking a 2.5% wage increase in the first year, with a $1,250 signing bonus. For year two, the union wants a 3% increase.
Scientists Turn Wet Coffee Grounds Into Coal-Like Fuel in Just 90 Seconds
A new process skips energy-intensive drying for recycling coffee waste.
Texas school board to vote on required Bible readings in public education
If approved by the Texas State Board of Education, which is controlled by Republicans, the reading list would take effect in 2030.
Is AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) Undervalued Or Is Its Recent Rally Already Priced In?
AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) is under renewed scrutiny as investors weigh its recent share price swings and ongoing losses against reported revenue of $5,031.8 million and a market value of about $1.5 billion. See our latest analysis for AMC Entertainment Holdings. At a share price of $1.89, AMC Entertainment Holdings has seen sharp swings, with a 7 day share price return down 33.22% but a 90 day share price return up 99.33%. The 1 year total shareholder return is down 37.42%, indicating...
‘Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 Pro’ needed more words to prove its power, three other flagship chips coming
Qualcomm’s Snapdragon chipset lineup is eternally confusing, with slight variations generating new names and options that aren’t all that different....
Past participants are now the leaders of MIT’s dynaMIT Club
The MIT student club dynaMIT teaches STEM principles to local middle school students for free every summer. They use fun, innovative experiments to inspire the next generation of scientists and engineers.
Earthquake shifts political ground for Venezuelan leader Delcy Rodriguez
Venezuela's strongest earthquake in over a century is the biggest challenge to Delcy Rodriguez's leadership but could also allow the interim president to stamp her authority on a fractured government.
Chairman Guthrie, Health Vice Chair Harshbarger, Congresswoman Miller-Meeks Lead Site Visit to Iowa Hospitals to Highlight Benefits of the Rural Health Transformation Program
The Committee on Energy and Commerce is the oldest standing legislative committee in the U.S. House of Representatives and is vested with the broadest jurisdiction of any congressional authorizing committee.
Starlink veterans launch startup to broaden megaconstellation ownership
Former SpaceX engineers who helped build and scale Starlink have launched a startup aiming to deliver megaconstellations for governments and companies seeking more control over space-based infrastructure.
What Happens to Your Liver When You Drink Green Tea Every Day
What does green tea do for your liver? Learn how it may affect fat buildup, inflammation, and liver enzymes, plus risks and benefits.
Sweden and WHO launch new long-term initiative to transform Ukraine’s health system
WHO and the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida) have launched a new multi-year cooperation project to support the long-term recovery and transformation of Ukraine’s health system. The new project, “Ukraine’s Health System Transformation Initiative: Strengthening Health Governance, Health Financing and Service Delivery for Long-Term Recovery”, was launched at the Ukraine Recovery Conference 2026 in Gdansk, Poland on 26 June, and will run from June 2026 to 2029. Sweden will contribute approximately US$ 26 million (240 million Swedish krona) to support this project. This contribution forms part of Sweden’s broader support to Ukraine through the Team Europe approach, which brings together the European Union, its Member States, and key partners such as the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Enlargement and Eastern Neighbourhood and Enabel, and WHO as lead health agency, to support Ukraine’s recovery, reform agenda and European integration.“Ukraine’s health recovery cannot be measured only by what is rebuilt, but by whether people can count on the health system when they need it most. The scale of the task is immense, with health reconstruction and modernization needs estimated at US$ 19.4 billion over the next decade. Sweden’s US$ 26 million contribution to Ukraine’s Health System Transformation Initiative is a timely investment in the institutions, financing and services that will support Ukraine’s long-term recovery and European integration. WHO remains a trusted partner of the Government of Ukraine in advancing this process. I am deeply grateful to Sweden for its consistent support and partnership,” said Dr Hans Henri P. Kluge, WHO Regional Director for Europe. More than 4 years of war have placed unprecedented pressure on Ukraine’s health system, creating 3 interconnected challenges. The first is responding to the immediate consequences of the war and the urgent health needs of the population. The second is recovering and modernizing health services today. The third is continuing reforms and aligning the health system with European standards in the context of Ukraine’s future accession to the European Union. The war has led to large-scale population displacement, an increasing need for trauma care and rehabilitation, and shortages of health workers. High out-of-pocket payments in Ukraine make access to health services more difficult. Around 46% of total health expenditure is paid directly by individuals, placing a significant financial burden on many households and underscoring the need for reforms in health financing. Older people, persons with disabilities, women, children and veterans continue to face the greatest difficulties in accessing health services. “Ukraine is demonstrating that health system transformation can continue even during war. Ukraine is also continuing to align its health system with European norms and standards. WHO is committed to supporting Ukraine on this journey. We provide technical support, help coordinate partners’ efforts and support the institutional changes needed to strengthen the system. We are grateful to Sweden for its support. Through this partnership, we can help Ukraine build a more resilient, accessible and people-centred health system,” said Dr Jarno Habicht, WHO Representative in Ukraine. About the Health System Transformation InitiativeThe new initiative will support Ukraine through 3 interconnected areas: strengthening governance and coordination of health sector reforms through more inclusive coordination platforms and structured policy dialogue; transforming service delivery by reinforcing a primary health care-centred model that integrates family medicine, nursing and midwifery; and improving financial sustainability by supporting reforms that ensure the long-term viability of the national health system and reduce out-of-pocket payments for households. Overall, these reforms are expected to make the health system more coherent and easier to navigate, improve the quality and continuity of care, and ensure more equitable access to services, particularly for those who need them most. They will also support Ukraine’s progress towards a more modern health system aligned with European standards. “We are convinced that long-term recovery is not possible without strong, high-quality, person-centred health services that are accessible to everyone. Our partnership with WHO is designed to support deep and lasting systemic changes. Investments in human capital especially autonomous midwives, whose role for maternal, newborn and adolescent sexual and reproductive health cannot be understated, stronger governance, digital transformation and the financial sustainability of the health system are investments in Ukraine’s future. We are proud to support this process,” said Malin Perhult, the Head of the Ukraine Unit at Sida. Focus throughout implementation will be given to the most vulnerable population groups, including older people, women and children, and persons with disabilities, who have been affected by the war and face greater health-care needs. The initiative will be implemented in close cooperation with the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, the National Health Service of Ukraine, the Public Health Centre of Ukraine, regional authorities and international partners. This project will help Ukraine move towards a system where everyone can access the health care they need. It will strengthen primary care, make the health finance system more stable and predictable, and reduce the out-of-pocket costs that Ukrainians face when using health services. As a result, the Ukrainian health system will become more aligned with European standards and more sustainable in the long run.
OHSU advances massive leap in medical science with cellular therapies
Patients are benefiting from CAR-T to treat neurodegenerative diseases, cancer, lupus and other autoimmune conditions.
ISS repair spacewalk highlights concerns about station health
NASA astronauts on the space station are preparing for a spacewalk to repair a robotic arm as safety advisers raise concerns about its long-term health.
Morgan Stanley on life after selling your business: a roadmap for entrepreneurs
Selling your company can be the financial win of a lifetime — and one of the most disorienting transitions you'll ever face.
Accel Entertainment (ACEL) Expands Louisiana Gaming Footprint Through Truck Stop Casino Acquisition
Accel Entertainment, Inc. (NYSE:ACEL) ranks among the best sin stocks to buy for recession protection. On June 3, Accel Entertainment, Inc. (NYSE:ACEL) strengthened its Louisiana business with the acquisition of Rice Palace Truck Stop Casino in Crowley, adding a high-volume gaming venue that expands the company’s route-based gaming network in another of its strongest growth […]
Study analyzes youth sports and committing violence
The study used survey data on 3,849 adults who participated in the National Sports and Society Survey.
Study analyzes youth sports and committing violence
The study used survey data on 3,849 adults who participated in the National Sports and Society Survey.
Study analyzes youth sports and committing violence
The study used survey data on 3,849 adults who participated in the National Sports and Society Survey.
Medical breakthroughs collide with the health system
The buzziest advances — like personalized gene therapies or AI-discovered drugs — may not deliver.
Apple to Skip M6 Pro and M6 Max, Jumps to M7 Series
Apple has reportedly canceled its M6 Pro and M6 Max processors, according to a recent note from Bloomberg's Apple insider Mark Gurman. Behind the scenes, there is a significant shift in Apple's silicon rollout strategy. The company is postponing the launch of its higher-end M6 SoC variants, like the...
Scientists find evidence of vast hidden magma systems inside Mars
Researchers from the University of Oxford have uncovered evidence that Mars once hosted enormous, Earth-like magmatic systems deep beneath its surface—despite the planet lacking the plate tectonics long ...
County Invites Youth, Camps To Register For ‘Mind Your Business’ July 7 - Town-Crier Newspaper
Palm Beach County’s Mind Your Business Youth Entrepreneurship Forum returns on July 7, offering a full day of hands-on learning and innovation for young people across the county. Now in its seventh year, the forum is designed to inspire the next generation of creators, problem-solvers and emerging business leaders. Open to youth ages 10 to […]
Senate Indian Affairs Committee Advances Mark Cruz’s Nomination to Lead Indian Health Service
U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), Chair of the Senate Committee on Indian Affairs, led a nomination hearing to consider Mr. Mark Cruz, of Oregon, to be Director of the Indian Health Service within the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and expressed her intent to support his nomination. Representative Tom Cole (R-Okla.), a citizen […]
iHeart-broken: Listeners react to mass layoffs at local sports radio station
iHeart lays off radio hosts at three of its four stations in Des Moines.
It's Xbox's turn (again), as console prices keep going up
Microsoft announced a price hike for the Xbox Series consoles today, the third in little over a year. Effective August 1, the Xbox Series S, which launched in 2020 for $300, will cost $500 in the U.S. The Xbox Series X, which launched in 2020 at $500, will go for $800. This follows a round of PlayStation 5 price increases from Sony this spring, and a slow-motion increase for Nintendo’s Switch 2, which will kick in in the U.S. in September. (Mind you, there were also eight video game industry price hikes in six months of 2025). The chart up top shows the sudden ascent of console prices over the past year, a sudden surge in an already unusual hardware generation. Prices had been flat for years, now “up” is the new “flat.” Game console prices used to go down across the length of a console generation, but not this time around. Microsoft’s explanation for the new price hike today: We hoped another price increase would not be necessary, and we have spent the last several months working with suppliers on options. Unfortunately, console storage and memory prices have increased by more than 2.5x and we expect another doubling by the fall of 2027. The entire consumer electronics industry is struggling with the current components crisis, but the effects are particularly hard on consoles. Unlike phones, computers, speakers, and other consumer devices, consoles are typically not sold at a profit, but instead for less than they cost to make. This is an issue well beyond game consoles. Apple announced price hikes on its computers and tablets today as well. Game File is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Subscribe Item 2: Brutal Bungie cuts Bungie laid off “most” of its Destiny development team and some developers who worked on Marathon, the newest game from the struggling Sony-owned studio. A WARN notice issued by Sony to Washington State, where Bungie is based, tallied cuts impacting 292 workers, effective next month. That’s strictly for Bungie/Sony jobs in Washington and wouldn’t account for any elsewhere. The video I clipped below shows the redacted list of Bungie cuts filed to Washington State officials. As you’ll see, I had to scroll for a while… In a note emailed to PlayStation workers and published online, PlayStation game studios chief Hermen Hulst offered the following explanation for these latest cuts at Bungie: This is painful news, especially for talented colleagues whose roles have been eliminated. This decision was made only after extensive discussion and careful consideration, and I want to provide some context on how we arrived here. Over the past several months, together with Bungie leadership, we reviewed the studio’s long-term direction, development priorities, resource needs, and role within our broader portfolio strategy. We explored multiple alternatives before concluding that a reduction was necessary to align the studio’s resources with its current priorities and long-term goals. In 2022, Sony bought Bungie for $3.7 billion. The studio’s marquee game, the multiplayer live service shooter Destiny 2 was losing popularity at the time. Its next game Marathon, released earlier this year, has been well-reviewed but had a slow start. Bungie is renowned for making great shooter games, and Destiny fans have mourned the wind-down of Destiny 2. They’ve also expressed bewilderment over reports that Destiny 3 is not, per Bloomberg, immediately in the cards.
Heastie brushes off growing DSA influence, defeat of incumbents in Albany
Heastie sought to put the results into context while speaking with reporters at an unrelated event in Schenectady on Thursday.
Generative artificial intelligence creates delicious, sustainable, and nutritious burgers
npj Science of Food - Generative artificial intelligence creates delicious, sustainable, and nutritious burgers
New district leaders could take over Brooklyn Democratic Party
The current chair said she believes in "moving forward."
Lionel Richie postpones concerts after falling ill during tour opener
Lionel Richie is pausing his return to the stage after abruptly falling ill during the opening of his new tour.
Discovery Education Earns Five 2026 CODiE Award Nominations Spanning Math, Science, Digital Citizenship, and Immersive Learning
Discovery Education Earns Five 2026 CODiE Award Nominations Spanning Math, Science, Digital Citizenship, and Immersive Learning
Trump nominates new top deputy to RFK Jr.
Chris Klomp, a 45-year-old tech entrepreneur, gained the president's confidence when he negotiated price cuts with drug companies.
President Trump Signs Executive Order Advancing Regenerative Agriculture as Part of Make America Healthy Again Agenda
President Trump Signs Executive Order Advancing Regenerative Agriculture as Part of Make America Healthy Again Agenda
Blakeman slams Lander in TV interview over Israel stance
On Thursday, the Republican doubled down in a statement to NY1.
City council members request special meeting on planned Sports and Entertainment District
San Antonio Council Districts 1, 5 and 7 want a special meeting before Aug. 7 to guide public input on the Spurs arena’s $75M Community Benefits Agreement as the city considers a $489M Sports and Entertainment District.
College Sports Commission to continue reviewing deals by multimedia rights companies
A judge ruled that multimedia rights companies that represent university athletic departments can continue to be subject to the same rules governing millions in third party name-image-likeness payments to players that are reshaping college sports.
College Sports Commission to continue reviewing deals by multimedia rights companies
A judge ruled that multimedia rights companies that represent university athletic departments can continue to be subject to the same rules governing millions in third party name-image-likeness payments to players that are reshaping college sports.
Kentucky State hosts students for agriculture and health science camp
Students from across the country are at Kentucky State University for a summer program focused on agriculture, health and environmental science.
New York state launches center for cannabis care and health
The state Office of Cannabis Management on Thursday announced the launch of its Center of Excellence for Cannabis Care and Health Equity.
DC Wrap: Supreme Courts rules on immigration and gun cases
A look at the day's biggest stories in national politics
PAHO mobilizes emergency health response following earthquakes in Venezuela
Caracas, Venezuela/Washington, D.C., 25 June 2026 (PAHO) – The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) has activated its emergency response mechanisms to support the health response in Venezuela following two magnitude 7.5 earthquakes that struck the country on June 24.
Project manager says America’s Time Capsule is a ‘gift to the future’
The vessel will move from Washington to Philadelphia starting Friday.
Local entrepreneurs, aspiring business owners gain connections, resources at 4th annual expo
Small business owners and aspiring entrepreneurs convened in Downtown Memphis to make connections and grow Thursday morning at the 2026 Small Business Expo.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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http://democrats-energycommerce.house.gov/media/press-releases/pallone-opening-remarks-health-subcommittee-markup-15-bills
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