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What is a doublet earthquake? The science behind twin tremors
Several of the world’s most destructive earthquakes were actually two or more tremors occurring in rapid succession
The impact of club sports on student experience in higher education
Authors: Ryan Savitz1, Divit Gupta2, Jared Ward3, Andrew Bjorkelo1 1Neumann University 2Conestoga High School 3Brigham Young University Corresponding Author: Ryan Savitz savitzr@neumann.edu …
AI-assisted colonoscopy enhances polyp detection at UT Health San Antonio Multispecialty and Research Hospital
Contact: Steven Lee, (210) 450-3823, lees22@uthscsa.edu Content provided by Kristen Zapata SAN ANTONIO, June 29, 2026 – A routine colonoscopy may last less than an hour. But what happens during that procedure can change, or even save, a life years before cancer ever has a chance to develop. Physicians at The University of Texas at San […]
The 5-Question Org Chart Audit I Run Before Scaling AI Across a Business
AI success depends less on the technology and more on the organization behind it. These five questions help leaders identify the structural barriers that prevent AI from delivering real business impact.
New for MNSSHP 2026: Captain Jack Sparrow Leads Pirate Entertainment in Adventureland
Captain Jack Sparrow joins MNSSHP 2026 in Adventureland with a new pirate entertainment act. The Rusty Cutlass band has not appeared on any confirmed 2026 lineup yet.
Ed Norton looks back on the surprising reaction to one of his now-iconic movies
Edward Norton is reflecting on the surprising reaction to 'Fight Club,' which overcame a rocky start to become an iconic film.
‘It’s a bad time to be a normal’: House Republican on current political environment
Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.) reacts to President Trump's decision to cancel the signing of the bipartisan housing affordability bill. Rep. Johnson also discusses the president’s Iran strategy and the current political environment.
I Went From Bedside Nurse to Business Owner By Turning a Hobby Into a Home Micro-Factory That Makes Over $100K a Year
Eric Street followed his crafting passion into business.
Health system CEO fired without cause in wake of class-action lawsuit over unnecessary surgeries
Reese Jackson, the former president and CEO of Chesapeake Regional Healthcare was unceremoniously dismissed from his role on June 1. Jackson has been named as a defendant in a pending class-action lawsuit filed by 900 women.
House Science Republicans Examine Grant Fraud
Committee Democrats argued the hearing was a distraction and an excuse to slash spending.
Pilots react to a Boeing 777 freighter's 'reckless' stunt over Texas
A Boeing 777 nearly clipped the ground during an unusually low flyover in Texas, a stunt veteran pilots called "reckless" and "stupid."
Supreme Court says Alito’s verbal reaction to Sotomayor was a ‘misunderstanding’ by Alito
The highly unusual exchange between Justice Samuel Alito and Justice Sonia Sotomayor over a dissent read from the bench was based on a “misunderstanding” by the conservative justice, the Supreme Court said Friday.
EA Sports College Football 27 Will Be Without Two Surprising Stars
One of the most anticipated video game releases of the year is set to arrive on July 9 when EA Sports releases College Football 27 worldwide.This marks the third consecutive annual release since the series returned after an 11-year hiatus.Players who want to be included in the game must actively opt in through a structured […] The post EA Sports College Football 27 Will Be Without Two Surprising Stars appeared first on HEAVY.
Mia Sara reflects on working with ‘weird guy’ Tom Cruise in 'Legend'
Mia Sara recalls working with Tom Cruise in the Ridley Scott film 'Legend,' saying the actor was 'very insecure.'
Manufacturing business cuts ribbon in Putnam County, set to bring 120 jobs to area
The operation is a joint venture between global engineering group Sandvik and mining company Alpha Metallurgical Resources.
Factory Entertainment Announces Three More STAR TREK Collectibles, Including Gold-Pressed Latinum Bars
Factory Entertainment today unveiled three more STAR TREK replicas, including bars of gold-pressed latinum and Eline’s necklace from “The Inner Light”
Civility advocates look for ways to restore 'Iowa Nice' to campaigns, public discourse
A group of former and current officeholders are looking to encourage civility by encouraging civic participation and civil interactions.
What your sleep schedule says about your health
From the time you naturally wake up to how long you actually sleep, your schedule holds clues about your heart, hormones, mental health, and longevity
‘If you’re running in a Democratic primary, you ought to be a Democrat’: Sen. Coons reacts to NYC primary results
Mauricio Pochettino reportedly offered contract extension to coach USMNT for another World Cup cycle, through 2030
From Linchpin to Lever — Part 1: Measuring Trust in Public Health
Learn how local health departments can measure public trust using existing public health tools to strengthen relationships and improve community health outcomes.
DAVID MARCUS: In rural Maryland, petty politics takes back seat to World Cup fever
The World Cup and America 250 celebrations unite Americans beyond politics, as the Save America Act and Trump debates fade in small-town gatherings.
Rock Creek Entertainment District under siege in new lawsuit
A citizens group has sued to block Norman's $1.1 billion Rock Creek Entertainment District, alleging constitutional and Open Meetings Act violations.
Austrian GP: Kimi Antonelli completes Friday practice double as Mercedes team-mate George Russell struggles
As Pa. measles outbreak worsens, state health official issue strong call to action: 'We are not just sitting back and watching this virus spread'
LANCASTER, Pa. — State Health Secretary Debra Bogen on Friday issued a strong call to action in the wake of a measles outbreak not seen in Pennsylvania...
Pacquiao and Mayweather rematch postponed indefinitely
The rematch between boxing greats Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather has been postponed indefinitely because of a host of reasons, with contract disputes the main factor.
We cut MBA prices because America needs more professionals, not fewer
America is running short on educated workers at the exact moment when they matter the most.
PepsiCo Q2 earnings expected to reflect weakness in North American snack business, delayed recovery
PepsiCo Inc (NASDAQ:PEP, XETRA:PEP) earnings outlook was trimmed by Bank of America analysts ahead of the company’s second quarter results, with softer-than-expected performance in its North American snacks business offsetting steadier international trends. The analysts lowered their fiscal...
Final Countdown: Save Up to 44% On These Prime Day Smartphone Deals by Samsung, Google, Motorola, and More
Need a new Pixel, Galaxy, or Razr? Hurry and grab your next flagship, foldable, or flip phone for a fraction of the price while these Prime Day smartphone deals last!
Trump says Iran strike in Strait of Hormuz is a ‘foolish violation’ of agreement
President Donald Trump called Iran’s strike on a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz a “foolish violation” of the agreement to end the war with Tehran, but offered little indication the episode would prompt a return to active hostilities.
Ryman Hospitality Addresses Possible Sale of Opry Entertainment Group
Corporation officials say they are exploring the possible sale of a 70 percent stake in the entertainment entity, but there are no agreements in place and ‘no assurances any transaction will occur.’
Sports books see surge in Missouri World Cup betting
Sports gambling activity is up this month in Missouri with Kansas City hosting six FIFA World Cup matches.
Thunder reportedly trade Isaiah Joe to Pistons for two second-round draft picks
Isaiah Joe still has two years left on his contract.
Paxton’s support for IVF highlights broader divide among GOP
Anti-abortion activists believe life begins at conception, so many oppose IVF because it often destroys some embryos.
From The Sports Desk: The U.S. lost, but also saw return of star Christian Pulisic
The Americans may have lost their final group stage. But Pulisic, who had been nursing a calf injury, returned to action. He’s back just in time for the start of the knockout round.
Why Your Nighttime Dreams Are So Weird—Science Finally Has the Answer - Futura-Sciences
The Secret Life of Dreams: Not Just Random Nonsense Remember the dream you had last night? Maybe you’re left with just a trace—a sweet feeling, maybe, or a strange discomfort. But there’s rarely a story you could actually retell. Because, in the end, a dream is a deeply personal experience....
Council Explores AI, Quality Improvement and Patient Safety to Advance Community Health
The MHA Council on Health Access and Community Impact held its final meeting of the program year June 4 to examine emerging opportunities and challenges shaping healthcare delivery and advancing community health.
Case Studies From Ireland: Making Sustainability Good Business
From Kinisla to Strong Roots, these food companies are making the business case for sustainable practices.
810 Entertainment to bring bowling, games and more to Austin EastVillage
A new entertainment hub is headed to Northwest Austin in early 2027.
How Brad Pitt appears in “Jackass: Best and Last”: 'It was wild,' says Steve-O
The "Inglourious Basterds" actor shows up in the latest "Jackass" movie via archival footage from 2001.
PlayStation Removing Purchased Content From Your Library Again
Sony Interactive Entertainment is conducting another round of purchased content removal from the PlayStation library.
Business Owners Agree: The Road to Downtown Recovery Runs Through Facts, Not Nostalgia
State Street's commercial vacancy rate is lower today than it was before the pandemic. The highest vacancy rates remain on blocks that are open to vehicle traffic.
Why where you live matters for heart health — even in childhood - Baylor College of Medicine Blog Network
Evidence links environmental exposures to early cardiovascular risk, disproportionately impacting marginalized communities like AI/AN youth.
NASA's canceled Artemis hardware contracts reached $5.9 billion, audit finds
NASA was on track to pay nearly half a billion dollars for a stage adapter. A stage adapter should not cost half a billion dollars.
New Linux pedit COW Exploit Enables Root Access by Poisoning Cached Binaries
CVE-2026-46331 lets local users gain root on affected Linux systems by corrupting page-cache memory through act_pedit.
Earthquake shifts political ground for Venezuelan leader Delcy Rodriguez
Venezuela's strongest earthquake in over a century is the biggest challenge to Delcy Rodriguez's leadership but could also allow the interim president to stamp her authority on a fractured government.
Scientists stunned by signs of ancient life in a place no one expected
Scientists exploring ancient seafloor rocks in Morocco discovered mysterious wrinkle patterns where they were never expected to occur. These structures are normally linked to microbial mats in shallow, sunlit waters, yet the rocks formed hundreds of feet below the surface in darkness. Evidence indicates that chemosynthetic microbes created the wrinkles, revealing that deep-ocean microbial ecosystems may have been more widespread than previously thought.
Should “Success” in Science Be Measured Differently?
Publication volumes are one of the main ways that success is measured for researchers today. From mentorship to real-world impact, scientists argue that “publish or perish” pressures overlook many of the contributions that drive discovery forward.
Small Creatures, Big Mission: NMHM Bugapalooza 2026 Connects Science and Military Readiness
Mosquitoes, ticks, flies, and pollinators drew a crowd at the National Museum of Health and Medicine's Bugapalooza on June 13. Nearly 400 visitors attended the annual event to explore the world of insects through hands-on activities, exhibits, and conversations with military and civilian experts.
Science Heroes: Digging It at Groton Public Library
Unearth your love for science in this fun and interactive S.T.E.M. show for the whole family. With help from audience volunteers, we’ll conduct exciting experiments about the changing states of […]
Karl Stefanovic Speaks Out on Nine Exit After Tommy Robinson Scandal
The 'Today' host declares himself 'free' in a YouTube statement after Nine ends his contract following a deleted Tommy Robinson podcast episode.
PlayStation Boss Says New Console Experiences Will Involve 'Leveraging Technologies That Can Be Used in Various Forms and Locations' — and I'm Convinced He's Teasing a PS6 Handheld
Recent comments from Sony Interactive Entertainment CEO Hideaki Nishino have suggested PlayStation may move towards more hybrid, Switch-like consoles in the future to match modern on-the-go players.
Memorial Health Championship in full swing in Springfield
Organizers are also offering additional attractions beyond golf, including food trucks, the Scheels Fan Zone and Family Fun Day on Saturday, which features a superhero theme for children and families.
Europe’s Deadly Heat Wave: A Jolt for Climate Action, or Just for A.C.?
Heat-related deaths and disruptions to daily life are forcing politicians to reckon, in different ways, with a rapidly warming planet.
Alito’s testy reaction to Sotomayor underscores tensions at Supreme Court
When major rulings are announced, most Supreme Court justices practice a kind of studied impassivity. Then, there’s Samuel Alito.
Robot startup FieldAI achieves $100M milestone in revenue, contracts
FieldAI says it has crossed $100 million in revenue and contracts by building software for robots to work in mines, construction sites, and factories.
Grand Theft Auto 6 demand may be so high it will "likely outstrip supply" this holiday season, a video game retailer warns
Speaking to The Game Business, a major senior games buyer has warned that stocks might not survive the spending frenzy this fall.
Louisville coaches can't afford to stay sidelined amid NCAA changes
The NCAA has brought college sports into instability, which is why coaches like Louisville's Jeff Brohm and Pat Kelsey have to be activists.
Cabo Verde Is a Breakout Star of the World Cup. So Is the Family-Owned Business That Designed Its Jerseys
After more than three decades manufacturing apparel, Capelli Sport co-founder and CEO George Altirs found his company’s biggest billboard yet—3,500 miles away from his midtown Manhattan office.
How Perizaad Zorabian Left Bollywood And Turned Her Family's Poultry Business Into A Rs 120 Crore Enterprise
Perizaad Zorabian was at the peak of her career when she decided to quit acting and turned her focus to her family's poultry business
Nevada Global Business travels to Tokyo
Students explore Japan’s economy, culture and business practices through company visits and immersive learning in the Nevada Global Business program.
'A heavy impact:' Schwebel's closure leaves a sense of community loss
It’s the small things that residents across the region will remember when Schwebel’s closes its doors at summer’s end. Everything from...
The heatwave hacks that will actually help to keep you cool
Should you wear wet socks to bed or point a fan out the window? Can the ‘Japanese door fan’ technique cool a baking hot car? Here’s what the science says
X Games debut in Sacramento brings world's top action sports athletes to Cal Expo
Let the games begin. The debut of the X Games in Sacramento is on Friday at Cal Expo.
X Games brings top action sports athletes to town in Sacramento debut
Former Illinois forward Ben Humrichous signs contract with Nets
Heading to Brooklyn.
Smart voices in business react to Apple and Xbox price hikes
After Apple and Microsoft's Xbox raised prices due to a shortage of memory chips, tech observers are not optimistic about future prices.
TravelTech Show, Business Travel Show Europe name 2026 innovation award winners
Arcube, ImpersonAlly, Acai and Nowadays were recognized in separate competitions for travel technology innovations spanning airline retailing, brand protection, contact center automation and meetings management.
Proposed Changes to Grant Rules Threaten the Future of Research: Scientists Must Act Now!
The Trump administration is seeking to politicize US federal science funding, but collective action can stop this grantpocalypse from happening.
Ann Blyth, Oscar-nominated 'Mildred Pierce' actress, dies at 98
Ann Blyth, Golden Age Hollywood star and Oscar-nominated 'Mildred Pierce' actress, has died at 98.
‘Disgusting and vile’: Locals react to arrest of Tampa business owner on AI child porn charges
A Tampa business owner is behind bars facing more than 100 felony charges. He’s accused of making child pornography using Artificial Intelligence.
iHeart-broken: Listeners react to mass layoffs at local sports radio station
iHeart lays off radio hosts at three of its four stations in Des Moines.
It's Summer Sale Season, So I Tracked Down 25 Actually Good Gaming Deals Under $20
There's a million sales happening right now, so I sifted through them all to find 25 genuinely solid gaming deals that are each under $20.
It's Xbox's turn (again), as console prices keep going up
Microsoft announced a price hike for the Xbox Series consoles today, the third in little over a year. Effective August 1, the Xbox Series S, which launched in 2020 for $300, will cost $500 in the U.S. The Xbox Series X, which launched in 2020 at $500, will go for $800. This follows a round of PlayStation 5 price increases from Sony this spring, and a slow-motion increase for Nintendo’s Switch 2, which will kick in in the U.S. in September. (Mind you, there were also eight video game industry price hikes in six months of 2025). The chart up top shows the sudden ascent of console prices over the past year, a sudden surge in an already unusual hardware generation. Prices had been flat for years, now “up” is the new “flat.” Game console prices used to go down across the length of a console generation, but not this time around. Microsoft’s explanation for the new price hike today: We hoped another price increase would not be necessary, and we have spent the last several months working with suppliers on options. Unfortunately, console storage and memory prices have increased by more than 2.5x and we expect another doubling by the fall of 2027. The entire consumer electronics industry is struggling with the current components crisis, but the effects are particularly hard on consoles. Unlike phones, computers, speakers, and other consumer devices, consoles are typically not sold at a profit, but instead for less than they cost to make. This is an issue well beyond game consoles. Apple announced price hikes on its computers and tablets today as well. Game File is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Subscribe Item 2: Brutal Bungie cuts Bungie laid off “most” of its Destiny development team and some developers who worked on Marathon, the newest game from the struggling Sony-owned studio. A WARN notice issued by Sony to Washington State, where Bungie is based, tallied cuts impacting 292 workers, effective next month. That’s strictly for Bungie/Sony jobs in Washington and wouldn’t account for any elsewhere. The video I clipped below shows the redacted list of Bungie cuts filed to Washington State officials. As you’ll see, I had to scroll for a while… In a note emailed to PlayStation workers and published online, PlayStation game studios chief Hermen Hulst offered the following explanation for these latest cuts at Bungie: This is painful news, especially for talented colleagues whose roles have been eliminated. This decision was made only after extensive discussion and careful consideration, and I want to provide some context on how we arrived here. Over the past several months, together with Bungie leadership, we reviewed the studio’s long-term direction, development priorities, resource needs, and role within our broader portfolio strategy. We explored multiple alternatives before concluding that a reduction was necessary to align the studio’s resources with its current priorities and long-term goals. In 2022, Sony bought Bungie for $3.7 billion. The studio’s marquee game, the multiplayer live service shooter Destiny 2 was losing popularity at the time. Its next game Marathon, released earlier this year, has been well-reviewed but had a slow start. Bungie is renowned for making great shooter games, and Destiny fans have mourned the wind-down of Destiny 2. They’ve also expressed bewilderment over reports that Destiny 3 is not, per Bloomberg, immediately in the cards.
Baxter Health Heart and Vascular Clinic Welcomes Brandi Watson, APRN
Baxter Health is proud to welcome Brandi Watson, APRN, to the Baxter Health Heart and Vascular Clinic. Watson joined the team on May 15 and is currently accepting new patients. Watson brings more than 25 years of experience caring for some of the most critically ill patients. Much of her career has been spent in intensive care settings, where she learned to make fast, high-stakes decisions for patients whose lives depended on getting the right care at the right moment. That kind of experience, which is gained through years at the bedside, is exactly what heart and vascular patients need from a provider.
Health officials warn against swimming at Avocado Lake after elevated E. coli levels
Health officials are advising people to avoid swimming at Avocado Lake after elevated levels of E. coli bacteria were detected at the lake's swim beach.Accordin
“Vampire Diaries” stars Nina Dobrev and Paul Wesley reuniting for “You Deserve to Know” series at Hulu
The actors will star in and executive produce the upcoming show being adapted from the book of the same name.
Sony files WARN notice for layoffs at Bungie in Bellevue
Sony Interactive Entertainment is reducing the workforce at Bungie, with layoffs affecting a significant number of employees.
Kawhi Leonard Seeks Extension – But Not With Current Team
Kawhi Leonard has one year left on his current contract with the Los Angeles Clippers. He’s eligible to sign an extension this summer, and sounds like he’s willing to do get that done. The one caveat: The Clippers aren’t necessarily the team he wants to sign with. Leonard, who turns 35 on June 29, ...
Palmetto Sports Daily: Hornets star Lamelo Ball traded to Minnesota, Lamont Paris talks NIL negotiations
On the latest episode of Palmetto Sports Daily, the crew discusses the blockbuster trade sending LaMelo Ball to the Minnesota Timberwolves, and SC men’s basketball coach Lamont Paris discusses NIL contracts.
Travelers Championship brings business boost and traffic headaches for Cromwell-area shops
As golfers compete at the Travelers Championship, nearby restaurants and shops in the Cromwell area are seeing the tournament’s impact on business, with some owners welcoming the crowds and others pointing to traffic challenges.
Monkey Business: Wild rhesus macaque spotted at Mount Dora hotel
A wild rhesus macaque was spotted at the historic Lakeside Inn in Mount Dora, Florida, spending about 45 minutes roaming the property and attracting attention from guests and staff. The hotel and local businesses responded with humorous, monkey-themed social media content, engaging the community. Wildlife officials cautioned the public not to approach or feed wild monkeys due to potential health risks and encouraged reporting sightings to authorities. The monkey has not returned to the hotel but has been seen elsewhere in downtown Mount Dora.
UT Health San Antonio researcher receives $400,000 Komen grant to study therapeutic yoga for breast cancer survivors
Amelie G. Ramirez, DrPH, MPH, to work with Hispanics in South Texas Contact: Steven Lee, (210) 450-3823, lees22@uthscsa.edu Content provided by Cliff Despres SAN ANTONIO, June 25, 2026 – Amelie G. Ramirez, DrPH, MPH, a cancer researcher at UT Health San Antonio, the academic health center of The University of Texas at San Antonio, is […]
PAHO mobilizes emergency health response following earthquakes in Venezuela
Caracas, Venezuela/Washington, D.C., 25 June 2026 (PAHO) – The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) has activated its emergency response mechanisms to support the health response in Venezuela following two magnitude 7.5 earthquakes that struck the country on June 24.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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