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Scientists discover a protein switch that burns fat and blocks new fat cells
A protein called “Mitch” may hold the key to a new generation of obesity treatments. Researchers found that disabling it in human cells boosts fat burning, increases energy use, and makes it harder for new fat cells to develop. The findings help explain why mice lacking Mitch were leaner, more athletic, and resistant to obesity.
Cowboys Headlines: Laziest approach, rookie CB's opportunity, WR ranks
The Cowboys may not have shattered tradition this offseason, but looking at it as a failure is a weird take.
Telling themes to take away from Tuesday’s primary elections
Let’s be clear about how Colorado’s primaries arrived at these unexpected results. The most significant voting cohorts on both the Democratic and Republican sides were women from 65 to 75-plus. These senior women voters selected Phil Weiser and have given Barb Kirkmeyer a chance. They may be on the farther side of their lives, but […]
Too Big? Jones Explains Poatan’s ‘Perfect Storm’
Jon Jones has a bit of experience with moving up to Heavyweight. “Bones” ruled the 205-pound roost for many, many years before finally making the leap in 2023. He teased a Heavyweight jump for much of that span, but Jones has always been a careful decision-maker in regards to his MMA career and (nearly) undefeated […]
Liverpool feeling full weight of massive Mo Salah regret
Liverpool have an enormous Mohamed Salah regret. They're now feeling the full weight of it.Mohamed Salah left Liverpool this summer. The Egyptian is no longer a Red and will find a new club, something...
UFC champ Sean Strickland predicts unlikely future title matchup
UFC middleweight champion Sean Strickland believes a fight between him and a training partner at Xtreme Couture is inevitable.
Bluebird Social draws World Cup crowds, boosts food truck business in downtown Boise
KBOI-TV CBS 2 covers news, sports, traffic, and weather in the Treasure Valley and Boise, Idaho and nearby communities, including Meridian, Nampa, Garden City, Caldwell, Kuna, Middleton, Eagle, Mountain Home, Star, Melba, Payette, Weiser, Horseshoe Bend, Idaho City, Marsing, Homedale, Parma, New Plymouth, Murphy, Fruitland, Emmett, Wilder, Notus, McCall, Cascade, Donnelly, Council, and Vale, Oregon, and Nyssa, Oregon, Ontario, Oregon.
Harvey Weinstein hospitalized for 'heart and breathing issues'
Harvey Weinstein is facing another setback in his ongoing health battle.
Statins and blood pressure drugs changing health risks of obesity, study suggests
New research shows obesity patients over 40 are managing blood pressure and cholesterol as well as healthy-weight peers, but younger adults remain at risk.
Haleon teams up with Microsoft in 5-year AI pact to upgrade consumer health operations
Consumer health giant Haleon has tapped Microsoft to incorporate AI across its operations, joining a growing wave of healthcare and life sciences heavyweights turning to Big Tech to execute enterpr | Consumer health giant Haleon has tapped Microsoft to incorporate AI across its operations, joining a growing wave of healthcare and life sciences heavyweights turning to Big Tech to execute enterprise-wide digital overhauls.
Meta building cloud business to sell excess AI computing capacity
The company is weighing plans to sell access to AI models and raw computing capacity, setting up new competition with AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud
Preparing your business for new shipping, packaging requirements
Any business using packaging and shipping material in Maine should familiarize itself with new compliance obligations and fees on the horizon, our guest contributor recommends.
Local business owner and legal expert weigh in on Supreme Court ruling that could impact NY's gun laws
A recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling could affect gun laws in New York State. We spoke with legal experts about what could be coming.
What older adults need to know before taking a GLP-1 medication to lose weight
Starting Wednesday, millions of Medicare-qualifying adults will have access to popular medications for weight loss at deep discounts through a temporary federal program called the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge.
Events in VT go big for July with Weird Al, Jack White and Thundercat
The Vermont Comedy Club, Higher Ground and the von Trapp Family Lodge & Resort all have plenty to offer as America celebrates its 250th birthday.
Associated British Foods Sugar Unit Weighs on Business Ahead of Primark Spinoff
Associated British Foods backed its guidance across all businesses apart from its sugar unit which it said would post a loss as market conditions deteriorate.
Cut Tom Aspinall?
Josh Hokit has a plan to make Heavyweight great again. “The Incredible Hok” may be a controversial figure, but it’s hard to argue that he’s a welcome presence in the division’s largely stagnate title mix. In less than a year on the UFC roster, Hokit has built up a 4-0 record in the promotion, beating […]
Josh Hokit calls for UFC to cut Tom Aspinall
Heavyweight contender Josh Hokit took aim at champion Tom Aspinall over inactivity and wants the UFC to strip Aspinall of the heavyweight title and release him from the organization. He also continued to take shots at former two-division titleholder Alex Pereira. "This crybaby has lost all of his ...
There's a Waterfall in Antarctica That Bleeds Red – Here's What's Hiding Inside It
Antarctica's Blood Falls are even weirder than they look.
Weiser wins Colorado Democratic governor primary race over Bennet
NBC News projects that Weiser will move on to the general election after defeating Bennet, who has served in the Senate for 17 years.
Jena Griswold leads early returns in Colorado’s Democratic attorney general primary
Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold led the field of Democratic attorney general candidates by a wide margin in early returns posted minutes after polls closed Tuesday night. Four Democrats are running for the office held by term-limited Democratic Attorney General Weiser, who is running for governor. In addition to Griswold, who is serving her […]
Phil Weiser defeats Michael Bennet in Colorado’s Democratic gubernatorial primary
Attorney General Phil Weiser took an early lead over three-term U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet in Colorado’s Democratic gubernatorial primary and held onto it, defeating the state’s longest-serving senator in more than 50 years to win a nomination that’s likely to land him in the governor’s office. Weiser led Bennet 55% to 45% just before 8 […]
Phil Weiser leads Michael Bennet in early returns in Colorado’s Democratic gubernatorial primary
Attorney General Phil Weiser took an early lead over U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet in Colorado’s Democratic gubernatorial primary as election officials posted initial returns soon after polls closed Tuesday night. In the first round of results, Weiser had secured 60% of the vote to Bennet’s 40%, with just over 200,000 total ballots counted statewide. The […]
Can GLP-1 medications improve health in people with Type 2 diabetes and PAD?
Research Highlights: GLP-1RA (glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist) medications, which are prescribed to treat Type 2 diabetes and to help with weight loss, were found to reduce the number of deaths, amputations and hospitalizations among people...
Anthropic unveils drug discovery plans alongside Claude Science, an AI tool for drugmakers
At an event on Tuesday, the AI heavyweight said it plans to target "neglected" diseases.
Researchers say Anthropic’s Claude Science will boost drug discovery
Anthropic's Claude Science aims to speed up drug discovery. Northeastern scientists weigh in on what it could mean for their research.
As Taylor Swift, Travis Kelce prepare to tie the knot, wedding experts weigh in
They expect a "venue inside a venue" at Madison Square Garden with a carefully constructed theme
‘Minions & Monsters’ scores series-best reviews for Illumination’s animated franchise: ‘Weird, willful popular entertainment’
The latest installment drops the Minions down in Old Hollywood with cameos from Harold Lloyd and Charlie Chaplin.
Xbox weighs canceling Blade game and shuttering Arkane
Microsoft could shut at least five studios as part of big Xbox layoffs starting next week.
Peptides are everywhere in health and beauty, but does the science actually back up the claims?
Peptides are everywhere — promising to fix wrinkles, weight gain, and even torn ligaments. But are they safe? The FDA is moving to expand access. Here's what a medical expert wants you to know. 👇
Report: Apple Watch Redesign Coming Next Year With New Band System
A "major overhaul" of the Apple Watch's design is due to arrive next year with a new system for connecting bands, according to a known Weibo leaker. In a set of recent posts, the leaker known as "Instant Digital" linked the new claim to older rumors about an "Apple Watch X" model, which was said to introduce a fresh design and break compatibility with the existing watch band system.
'I Don't Know What They're Thinking': Ex-PlayStation Boss Weighs in on Sony's PC Port Backtracking
Porting is all about "mindshare"
Supreme Court sides with GOP, loosens campaign spending rules
The decision is the latest in which the Supreme Court has weighed in on campaign finance rules.
Weird Dresses
Schiaparelli deigns shows strong business potential with celebrity-driven virality, replaces ad spend, while surrealist shock value.
Win Fin, Flow Fork, Speed Sniffer: Specialized launches 'fastest road bike ever made' in the S-Works Tarmac SL9
American brand draws on Formula 1 lap times software to quantify performance beyond just aero and weight
Alleged iPhone 18 Pro Sim Tray Again Shows Dark Cherry Color
Apple's upcoming iPhone 18 Pro models are expected to introduce new color options, including a dark cherry color, and today we may have been given another peek at the rumored finish, courtesy of the Chinese leaker known as Ice Universe. Image shared by leaker Ice Universe In an image posted on Weibo, a SIM tray allegedly from the unreleased iPhone is shown in a dark cherry colour, which could also be described in this grainy example as burgundy, brownish, or purple.
3M joins Cadillac Formula 1® Team as Official Material Science Partner to accelerate racing performance
Multi-year global partnership will focus on lightweight materials, manufacturing and testing to aid on-track performance ST. PAUL, Minn. and INDIANAPOLIS, June 30, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- The...
The next test of the democratic socialist movement and other key races to watch in Colorado’s primaries
Democratic rifts over ideology, generation change and how best to take on President Donald Trump will be on display Tuesday in Colorado, as voters settle primaries for governor and a key House race, weigh ousting two mainstays of the state’s Democratic landscape and more.
Weird Science: Space enthusiasts helping train AI system to unlock deep secrets of spiral galaxies
Led by Dr. Patrick Treuthardt of the North Carolina Museum of Natural Sciences, the project asks everyday volunteers to review automated, color-coded maps of spiral galaxy arms.
Top GLP-1 prescription indications include sleep apnea, depression and kidney disease, study finds
A report from Trilliant Health looking at payer data found that, as prescriptions for the popular weight loss drugs spike, so rises the number of approved benefits.
Live Results: Colorado midterm primaries
The Democratic gubernatorial primary between U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet and state Attorney General Phil Weiser will not only determine who might lead Colorado, but it could also create an opening in the closely divided U.S. Senate.
Dbrand Forced To Pull Steam Machine Companion Cube
Mere after the reveal of the Valve Steam Machine, accessory maker Dbrand announced that it was releasing the "Companion Cube," a Steam Machine accessory that was modelled after the Portal weighted companion cube storage box. Following massive interest in the Companion Cube in the week since its anno...
NBCUniversal may enter video game business after Comcast split, sources say
NBCUniversal is eyeing opportunities in digital gaming and new entertainment franchises as the company weighs options for future growth after its planned spinoff from Comcast , according to three people with direct knowledge of the matter.
Exclusive-NBCUniversal May Enter Video Game Business After Comcast Split, Sources Say
By Echo Wang, Dawn Chmielewski and Milana Vinn June 29 - NBCUniversal is eyeing opportunities in digital gaming and new entertainment franchises as the company weighs options for future growth after its planned spinoff from Comcast, according to three people with direct knowledge of the matter.
Nancy Guthrie demand letter’s authenticity questioned by sheriff
Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos weighs in on a new demand letter in the Nancy Guthrie case, which claims to know who kidnapped the mother of 'Today' host Savannah Guthrie.
A Diet and Workout Plan to Hit Weight-Loss Goals By the End of 2026
A dietitian and personal trainer share the simple plan they give clients who want to lose weight, build strength and feel more energized by the end of the year.
iPhone 18, iPhone 18e, and iPhone Air 2 screen specs leak
The iPhone 18e is missing out on an important upgrade, it seems. A new rumor from Digital Chat Station on Weibo today brings us details about the early...
Turtles Are Really Weird Animals. Where Did They Come From?
The origin of turtles has puzzled scientists. A new study provides more evidence that these shelled reptiles share a common ancestor with crocodiles and birds.
Supreme Court will weigh Trump-backed Republican push to revive Arizona voting laws
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Supreme Court said Monday it will consider a Republican push to enforce strict Arizona voting laws passed in the swing state after the 2020 election. The high court has allowed some similar rules to take effect temporarily before, including Arizona's proof-of-citizenship requirement for state and local elections and a Virginia purge of voter rolls that the state said was aimed at keeping noncitizens from voting. READ MORE: Supreme Court rejects Trump's
GLP-1s 101: What the science says about weight loss, side effects, safety
We asked Stanford Medicine experts to break down everything you need to know about the drugs known as GLP-1s, semaglutide, Ozempic, Wegovy, Zepbound and many more.
Leaked A20 Pro Image Hints at iPhone 18 Pro Performance Gains
An alleged image of the iPhone 18 Pro motherboard has leaked online, showing the A20 Pro chip will use a new packaging technology that should offer notable performance gains over the previous model. The leaked image, which has been shared by the accounts "WHYLAB" and "Ice Universe" on Weibo, appears to show the A20 Pro chip integrated into TSMC's new packaging architecture, known as Wafer-Level Multi-Chip Module (WMCM) technology.
Medicare will start covering weight-loss drugs on July 1 for the first time.
Millions of Medicare enrollees will gain their first-ever coverage for drugs for weight loss under a temporary pilot program that launches July 1.
Medicare will start covering weight-loss drugs on July 1 for the first time. Here’s what you need to know
Millions of Medicare enrollees will gain their first-ever coverage for drugs for weight loss under a temporary pilot program that launches July 1.
Medicare is about to cover GLP-1 drugs for weight loss. Here’s what to know.
The Trump administration will launch its pilot program on Wednesday. It lasts 18 months, and estimated costs to taxpayers have not been disclosed.
iPhone 18e Won't Get ProMotion Display, Says Leaker
Apple's upcoming iPhone 18e will have the same display refresh rate as the existing iPhone 17e, according to a prominent Chinese leaker. Discussing Apple's product plans for 2027 in a Weibo post, Digital Chat Station claimed that the next generation of Apple's low-cost iPhone will feature the same 60Hz low-temperature polycrystalline silicon (LTPS) TFT panel as the current model.
Learn Science with Dr. V: Is air weightless?
Air is a mixture of gases, mainly nitrogen and oxygen, along with small amounts of other gases such as carbon dioxide, argon, and water vapor.
Efzimfotase alfa demonstrated improvements in bone health in treatment-naïve pediatric patients with hypophosphatasia achieving median difference of 1.67 vs placebo in RGI-C Score at week 25 in MULBERRY Phase III trial
Positive results from the MULBERRY Phase III trial showed that efzimfotase alfa (ALXN1850), an investigational enzyme replacement therapy, demonstrated a statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement in bone health in children (2 to
Inside California Politics: Former LA city councilmember weighs in on mayoral race
(Inside California Politics) — With Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass now set for a tough reelection campaign against former ally turned rival Nithya Raman, a former member of the L.A. City Council spok…
National City weighs business tax overhaul amid mounting budget pressures
Council to hear proposal June 30. It faces significant opposition from business community.
Only one workout helped older adults lose fat without losing muscle
A six-month study of more than 120 adults in their 70s found that high-intensity interval training (HIIT) may offer a key advantage over other forms of exercise: it helped reduce body fat while preserving valuable muscle mass. While moderate and low-intensity workouts also led to some fat loss, only HIIT maintained lean muscle, which becomes increasingly important with age.
Only one workout helped older adults lose fat without losing muscle
A six-month study of more than 120 adults in their 70s found that high-intensity interval training (HIIT) may offer a key advantage over other forms of exercise: it helped reduce body fat while preserving valuable muscle mass. While moderate and low-intensity workouts also led to some fat loss, only HIIT maintained lean muscle, which becomes increasingly important with age.
Morgan Stanley Raises PT on International Business Machines (IBM) Stock
International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE:IBM) is one of the Best Cloud Computing Stocks to Buy According to Hedge Funds. On June 23, Morgan Stanley lifted its price objective on the company’s stock to $267 from $225, and maintained an “Equal Weight” rating on the shares. As per the analyst, Dell and HPE earnings demonstrate that the enterprise server demand […]
GameThread: Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros, 6:40 p.m.
Detroit Tigers (35-46) vs. Houston Astros (40-44) Time/Place: 6:40 p.m., Comerica ParkSB Nation Site: The Crawfish BoxesMedia: Detroit SportsNet, MLB.TV, Tigers Radio NetworkPitching Matchup: LHP Framber Valdez (4-5, 3.91 ERA) vs. RHP Kai-Wei Teng (4-6, 4.03 ERA)
The Weird, Disturbing Origins of the Paleo Diet
Should we all be eating manatees and whales?
Scientists discover what triggers belly fat as we age
Aging may trigger the appearance of specialized stem cells that supercharge the body's ability to create new belly fat. The discovery reveals a potential biological driver of middle-age weight gain and a promising target for future anti-obesity treatments.
Science news this week: Life on Mars, weird water and a curious human cousin
June 27, 2026: Our weekly roundup of the latest science in the news, as well as a few fascinating articles to keep you entertained over the weekend.
Letters to Sports: Is Austin Reaves worth the $185-million deal?
L.A. Times readers weigh in on the re-signing of Lakers guard Austin Reaves, as well as the Dodgers' hits and misses.
Science news this week: Life on Mars, weird water and a curious human cousin
June 27, 2026: Our weekly roundup of the latest science in the news, as well as a few fascinating articles to keep you entertained over the weekend.
Fallout from USMNT loss to Turkey and previewing the Mbappe-Haaland clash
On today’s show, we look back at the United States’ final group stage match against Turkey and evaluate their readiness for the Round of 32. Manchester City insider Sam Lee joins us to preview the tournament’s first true superstar heavyweight clash as Kylian Mbappe and France square off against Erling Haaland and Norway in a battle for Group I supremacy. Plus, The Athletic’s Jay Harris is back in the studio to break down the latest bracketology, advancement percentages, and qualification permutations for Groups G, H, and I using The Athletic’s World Cup Tracker.
Americans keep poisoning themselves with semaglutide, other weight loss drugs
These incidents became much more common after the FDA started approving GLP-1 drugs for chronic weight management in 2021.
Mia Sara reflects on working with ‘weird guy’ Tom Cruise in 'Legend'
Mia Sara recalls working with Tom Cruise in the Ridley Scott film 'Legend,' saying the actor was 'very insecure.'
Foundation Friday: Building bright futures & mental health through fitness
The Lift US Foundation and InnerCity Weightlifting empower people to strive for better lives through fitness.
After 80 Years, Mathematicians Give Famed ‘Erdős Method’ an Upgrade
Decades ago, Paul Erdős used randomness to illuminate the vast and weird world of networks. Now mathematicians are making his technique even more powerful.
Why Your Nighttime Dreams Are So Weird—Science Finally Has the Answer - Futura-Sciences
The Secret Life of Dreams: Not Just Random Nonsense Remember the dream you had last night? Maybe you’re left with just a trace—a sweet feeling, maybe, or a strange discomfort. But there’s rarely a story you could actually retell. Because, in the end, a dream is a deeply personal experience....
Medicare will soon offer some older Oregonians weight loss drugs for $50 a month. Here’s how it works.
Medicare has long excluded coverage of GLP-1s prescribed solely for weight loss.
Is AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) Undervalued Or Is Its Recent Rally Already Priced In?
AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) is under renewed scrutiny as investors weigh its recent share price swings and ongoing losses against reported revenue of $5,031.8 million and a market value of about $1.5 billion. See our latest analysis for AMC Entertainment Holdings. At a share price of $1.89, AMC Entertainment Holdings has seen sharp swings, with a 7 day share price return down 33.22% but a 90 day share price return up 99.33%. The 1 year total shareholder return is down 37.42%, indicating...
UFC Baku early weigh ins results
Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will stage its early and official weigh ins at 9 a.m. local time for this weekend’s UFC Baku mixed martial arts (MMA) event on Paramount+. Unfortunately for stateside fight fans, Baku is eight hours ahead of Eastern Standard Time, so most of us will be asleep by the time the first […]
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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