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Netflix wants everyone in your house to have their own email login now
Netflix is quietly changing how shared accounts work, one profile at a time.
MacBook Ultra and new MacBook Pro both launching this fall, per rumors
Apple’s high-end MacBook plans are coming into focus after recent Bloomberg reports, including MacBook Ultra and a new M6 MacBook Pro.
Lorain flower shop celebrating 75 years as part of International Festival and Bazaar
Lorain has seen businesses come and go, but at least one has stood the test of time. Zelek Flower Shop celebrates 75 years this summer.
Newsom urges a national 'billionaires' tax' while fighting one in California
The governor announced his agenda a day after an influential health care union in California pledged to go forward with a ballot measure that would impose a one-time 5% tax on the assets of billionaires living in the state as of Jan. 1, 2026. Newsom opposes that measure.
The Year 536 AD Was So Bad It May Have Been the Worst Time in Human History to Be Alive
Volcanoes, famine and plague made 536 a leading candidate for history’s worst year.
Essentia again ranks among Minnesota's best for quality care
Minnesota Community Measurement (MNCM) — a statewide resource providing timely, comparable information on healthcare quality, costs and equity — once again ranks Essentia Health as a quality leader in its annual Health Care Quality Report.
“The Cheaper the Better,” Says Valve About its Steam Machine Pricing, but Don’t Expect a Price Decrease “Any Time Soon”
"The cheaper the better" is Valve's official line for how it would like to price the Steam Machine, but don't expect it to happen soon.
What your sleep schedule says about your health
From the time you naturally wake up to how long you actually sleep, your schedule holds clues about your heart, hormones, mental health, and longevity
Your Social Security benefits could be cut by a quarter in 2032. Here’s what to know
Americans’ Social Security benefits will have to be cut by roughly a quarter in six years due to depleted funds, according to a June 9 report from the Social Security Board of Trustees. That’s months sooner than the group had estimated in 2025.
The Venezuela Earthquakes Hit a Health System Already in Crisis
Firefighters are using cellphone lights because of a flashlight shortage, and an overwhelmed hospital in the disaster zone is operating without running water, one doctor said.
Epic's Tim Sweeney Keeps Inventing Solutions To Problems That Are Already Solved
Quick, someone tell him what Discord is
Seattle’s Pioneer Square lands a new retailer
A bespoke diamond jewelry company opened a store in Pioneer Square. The CEO is optimistic about its future in downtown Seattle.
The Best Prime Day SSD and HDD Deals Are Almost Gone: Save Big With Drives From Samsung, Seagate, WD, and More
After months of RAM-related price hikes, Amazon Prime Day is the best time to score deep discounts on SSDs and hard drives. But today is your last chance!
MAI-Code-1-Flash for Copilot Business and Copilot Enterprise
MAI-Code-1-Flash, Microsoft AI’s in-house coding model, is now generally available for GitHub Copilot Business and Copilot Enterprise, building on its recent expansion across Copilot surfaces. Purpose-built for coding and optimized…
Stillwater’s early start for school is big challenge for football, fall sports
Learn why Stillwater is starting early and how teams are trying to make adjustments.
John Bolton pleads guilty to illegally retaining classified information
His plea deal with federal prosecutors could help him avoid prison time
How Trump’s Political Agenda Is Shaped by His Own Obsessions
President Trump’s priorities seem increasingly detached from the concerns of voters and his party.
CSUF Report Finds Family Businesses Drive Jobs and Revenue in Fullerton
The city of Fullerton is home to a vibrant entrepreneurial community, with family-owned businesses serving as a cornerstone of the local economy. The family business sector in Fullerton is the subject of a new report researched and published by Tim Schultz, the head of Cal State Fullerton’s Center for Family Business. Chethan Srikant, associate professor […]
Intel’s chip business shows signs of life after years of struggle
Not long ago, Intel was seen as Silicon Valley’s fallen icon. Now it is showing signs of a turnaround amid the AI boom.
New iPhone Ultra report has new pricing and release timing info
Apple’s highly anticipated foldable iPhone is launching this fall, but a new report today claims you might have to wait...
Jackson business owner charged with murder after 21-year-old man shot
A suspected vehicle break-in ended in gunfire in Jackson. Police say the business owner now faces murder charges after the 21-year-old victim died during surgery.
From The Sports Desk: The U.S. lost, but also saw return of star Christian Pulisic
The Americans may have lost their final group stage. But Pulisic, who had been nursing a calf injury, returned to action. He’s back just in time for the start of the knockout round.
Can We Engineer Being on the Same Wavelength with Others? Research Offers a Cautious “Yes”
Analysis shows science can help us become synchronized over time—and feel more connected to others in the process
Vance Downplays Watergate and Compares Himself to Nixon
The vice president said that the scandal that ended Richard Nixon’s presidency would be “like a 12-hour news story” if it happened today and that the “deep state” had taken down Nixon.
Medical Debt Bills Advance, House Hears Behavioral Health Testimony
Several healthcare-related bills advanced in the Michigan Legislature during the week of June 22, including legislation addressing medical debt collections and behavioral health screenings.
The 5 Healthiest Fats You Can Eat
Fat has historically been demonized, but some types can be good for you.
Why Your Nighttime Dreams Are So Weird—Science Finally Has the Answer - Futura-Sciences
The Secret Life of Dreams: Not Just Random Nonsense Remember the dream you had last night? Maybe you’re left with just a trace—a sweet feeling, maybe, or a strange discomfort. But there’s rarely a story you could actually retell. Because, in the end, a dream is a deeply personal experience....
Cody Johnson’s country music is only getting bigger. On ‘Banks of the Trinity,’ he’ll take you home
Texas born and bred country star Cody Johnson is seeing a surge in new fans after two decades in the industry.
Meet A Retriever—Manikanta Sirumalla, International Data Science Graduate Student And Entrepreneur - UMBC: University Of Maryland, Baltimore County
If you want help meeting a big new fitness goal, Manikanta Sirumalla may have the app for you. Manikanta came to UMBC from India as a graduate student
Why Do Deadly Viruses Spare Mosquitoes? Science Has an Answer
Mosquitoes carry some of the world's deadliest viruses, biting victim after victim for their entire lives without ever getting sick themselves. Scientists have long suspected a biological explanation,...
Business Leader Tim Giroux Announces Candidacy for Nevada Joint Union High School District Trustee
GRASS VALLEY, Calif. – June 26, 2026 – Tim Giroux, a business leader and community member rooted in the Auburn/Grass Valley area since 1999, today announced his candidacy for Trustee of the Nevada Joint Union High School District. The election will be held in November 2026. Giroux brings more than 40 years of business ownership […]
Seattle ups its payout for vandalized small businesses. Is it enough?
For many businesses, the reimbursement "could be the difference between someone making their rent or not, just because this is such a tough time,” said Analog Coffee's owner.
Why Pollinators Matter for Human Health | Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
New research shows that wild insect pollinators play a critical role in nutrition and livelihoods.
Sweden and WHO launch new long-term initiative to transform Ukraine’s health system
WHO and the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida) have launched a new multi-year cooperation project to support the long-term recovery and transformation of Ukraine’s health system. The new project, “Ukraine’s Health System Transformation Initiative: Strengthening Health Governance, Health Financing and Service Delivery for Long-Term Recovery”, was launched at the Ukraine Recovery Conference 2026 in Gdansk, Poland on 26 June, and will run from June 2026 to 2029. Sweden will contribute approximately US$ 26 million (240 million Swedish krona) to support this project. This contribution forms part of Sweden’s broader support to Ukraine through the Team Europe approach, which brings together the European Union, its Member States, and key partners such as the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Enlargement and Eastern Neighbourhood and Enabel, and WHO as lead health agency, to support Ukraine’s recovery, reform agenda and European integration.“Ukraine’s health recovery cannot be measured only by what is rebuilt, but by whether people can count on the health system when they need it most. The scale of the task is immense, with health reconstruction and modernization needs estimated at US$ 19.4 billion over the next decade. Sweden’s US$ 26 million contribution to Ukraine’s Health System Transformation Initiative is a timely investment in the institutions, financing and services that will support Ukraine’s long-term recovery and European integration. WHO remains a trusted partner of the Government of Ukraine in advancing this process. I am deeply grateful to Sweden for its consistent support and partnership,” said Dr Hans Henri P. Kluge, WHO Regional Director for Europe. More than 4 years of war have placed unprecedented pressure on Ukraine’s health system, creating 3 interconnected challenges. The first is responding to the immediate consequences of the war and the urgent health needs of the population. The second is recovering and modernizing health services today. The third is continuing reforms and aligning the health system with European standards in the context of Ukraine’s future accession to the European Union. The war has led to large-scale population displacement, an increasing need for trauma care and rehabilitation, and shortages of health workers. High out-of-pocket payments in Ukraine make access to health services more difficult. Around 46% of total health expenditure is paid directly by individuals, placing a significant financial burden on many households and underscoring the need for reforms in health financing. Older people, persons with disabilities, women, children and veterans continue to face the greatest difficulties in accessing health services. “Ukraine is demonstrating that health system transformation can continue even during war. Ukraine is also continuing to align its health system with European norms and standards. WHO is committed to supporting Ukraine on this journey. We provide technical support, help coordinate partners’ efforts and support the institutional changes needed to strengthen the system. We are grateful to Sweden for its support. Through this partnership, we can help Ukraine build a more resilient, accessible and people-centred health system,” said Dr Jarno Habicht, WHO Representative in Ukraine. About the Health System Transformation InitiativeThe new initiative will support Ukraine through 3 interconnected areas: strengthening governance and coordination of health sector reforms through more inclusive coordination platforms and structured policy dialogue; transforming service delivery by reinforcing a primary health care-centred model that integrates family medicine, nursing and midwifery; and improving financial sustainability by supporting reforms that ensure the long-term viability of the national health system and reduce out-of-pocket payments for households. Overall, these reforms are expected to make the health system more coherent and easier to navigate, improve the quality and continuity of care, and ensure more equitable access to services, particularly for those who need them most. They will also support Ukraine’s progress towards a more modern health system aligned with European standards. “We are convinced that long-term recovery is not possible without strong, high-quality, person-centred health services that are accessible to everyone. Our partnership with WHO is designed to support deep and lasting systemic changes. Investments in human capital especially autonomous midwives, whose role for maternal, newborn and adolescent sexual and reproductive health cannot be understated, stronger governance, digital transformation and the financial sustainability of the health system are investments in Ukraine’s future. We are proud to support this process,” said Malin Perhult, the Head of the Ukraine Unit at Sida. Focus throughout implementation will be given to the most vulnerable population groups, including older people, women and children, and persons with disabilities, who have been affected by the war and face greater health-care needs. The initiative will be implemented in close cooperation with the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, the National Health Service of Ukraine, the Public Health Centre of Ukraine, regional authorities and international partners. This project will help Ukraine move towards a system where everyone can access the health care they need. It will strengthen primary care, make the health finance system more stable and predictable, and reduce the out-of-pocket costs that Ukrainians face when using health services. As a result, the Ukrainian health system will become more aligned with European standards and more sustainable in the long run.
With GTA looming, consoles are getting expensive at the worst possible time
Vice City ain’t cheap.
Nevada takes step toward becoming corporate litigation hub with business court pilot program
The Clark County District Court this week announced it has restructured its departments to include a dedicated business court. The restructuring is expected to bring down case adjudication times, and it could help an ongoing effort to transform Nevada into a premier destination for corporate litigation. Judges Maria Gall and Joe Hardy–Departments 9 and 15, […]
Who are Texas A&M's All-Time Quarterback recruits?
According to 247Sports, here are the top 10 ranked Texas A&M quarterbacks recruits in program history.
Morgan Stanley on life after selling your business: a roadmap for entrepreneurs
Selling your company can be the financial win of a lifetime — and one of the most disorienting transitions you'll ever face.
Ben Wood, longtime three-dot columnist known as ‘Mr. Show Business,’ dies at 94
Ben Wood, a multifaceted copy editor, food and entertainment writer, and three-dot columnist for the Honolulu Star-Bulletin and Honolulu Star-Advertiser for almost 50 years, died June 19 after several years of declining health. He was 94.
Europe’s Deadly Heat Wave: A Jolt for Climate Action, or Just for A.C.?
Heat-related deaths and disruptions to daily life are forcing politicians to reckon, in different ways, with a rapidly warming planet.
In governor's race, voters face stark choice on immigrant healthcare
California’s next governor will face tough decisions on a highly controversial piece of healthcare policy: what to do about health coverage for the more than 1.4 million low-income residents without legal status.
Valve Would "Love to Make the Steam Machine More Affordable" - Just Don't Expect It "Any Time Soon"
If memory prices go down - and that's a big if.
Heat Wave Prompts Paris to Suspend Sports Events and Public Drinking
The Paris police chief, Patrice Faure, said that alcohol restrictions were intended to ease pressure on health services.
Commitment season looming as Ohio State staff awaits
The month of June has been a grind for Ohio State’s coaching staff. Position camps, recruiting visits, and still prioritizing their current roster, the Buckeyes have had zero time off… and that will soon change. Ryan Day and company set to be on vacation in the coming days for a well deserved break, that doesn’t […]
Freedom Con: Thousands of Men Gather for Christianity and Feats of Strength
Thousands of men and boys gathered in central Washington for masculinity, Christianity and right-wing politics.
World Cup brings a boost to bar and restaurant businesses across the Piedmont-Triad
Bars and taprooms across the Piedmont-Triad are extending their hours and providing the ultimate experience as the World Cup enters its second week.
The heatwave hacks that will actually help to keep you cool
Should you wear wet socks to bed or point a fan out the window? Can the ‘Japanese door fan’ technique cool a baking hot car? Here’s what the science says
Professor Willow’s Birthday Research
Starts Tuesday, July 21, 2026, at 10:00 AM Local Time Ends Tuesday, July 21, 2026, at 8:00 PM Local Time Wish Professor Willow a very happy birthday with Professor Willow’s assistant Pikachu! This adorable Pikachu makes their Pokémon GO debut as part of the Willow’s Birthday Research event along with GO Snapshots, raids and more […]
What could be next for Gakpo?
Following the departure of Mohamed Salah, at least one more attacking signing is expected at Anfield this summer. Liverpool have already signed Victor Munoz from Osasuna for £34.5m and the pursuit of Yan Diomande is heating up. Talented teenager Rio Ngumoha is also set to play a more prominent role, while Florian Wirtz played off the left for Liverpool at times last season and is featuring there for Germany in the World Cup.
Ozone Ascent: Mega Rayquaza Timed Research
From Saturday, July 25, at 10:00 a.m. to Sunday, July 26, 2026, at 8:00 p.m. local time free Timed Research will be available to all Trainers that rewards a Meteorite that enables you to Mega Evolve Rayquaza! Complete the research tasks to earn a Meteorite, an encounter with Rayquaza, and more. Unlike other Mega-Evolving Pokémon, […]
MINNEAPOLIMEDIA PRESENTS | This Weekend in the Twin Cities – Entertainment Guide: June 26 ~ June 28, 2026 Edition
Twin Cities weekend features Pride, Breakaway, concerts, festivals, theater, museums and family events across Minneapolis, St. Paul and beyond.
Smart voices in business react to Apple and Xbox price hikes
After Apple and Microsoft's Xbox raised prices due to a shortage of memory chips, tech observers are not optimistic about future prices.
World Cup 2026: USMNT stunned by Türkiye in stoppage time, losing perfect group stage run
UFC Baku early weigh ins results
Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will stage its early and official weigh ins at 9 a.m. local time for this weekend’s UFC Baku mixed martial arts (MMA) event on Paramount+. Unfortunately for stateside fight fans, Baku is eight hours ahead of Eastern Standard Time, so most of us will be asleep by the time the first […]
The Business of Beauty Global Forum: Beauty’s New Future
Tom Hale, Violette Serrat, Dr. Fatima Cody Stanford and more explored what the future of beauty will look like, and who will shape it, in the final session of The Business of Beauty Global Forum 2026.
Elliot Cadeau appears set to return to Michigan basketball roster
For the third and presumably final time this offseason, Elliot Cadeau appears to have confirmed he will stay with Michigan basketball.
CRAWFORD | Kenny Klein, beloved longtime Louisville sports information director, dies at 66
Klein's career spanned nearly four decades and helped shape the public face of Cardinals athletics through some of its greatest triumphs and most difficult crises.
Kenny Klein, former longtime Louisville Athletics administrator, dies
Kenny Klein, a former Louisville Athletics administrator of 39 years who worked more than 1,300 straight men's basketball games, has died at age 65.
At least two people shot near Birmingham business
Just after 8:30 p.m., Birmingham police confirmed two victims in the shooting.
Controversial billionaire tax will appear on November ballot
Proponents of a controversial billionaire tax pledge to making sure it appears on the November ballot to backfill federal healthcare funds.
It's Xbox's turn (again), as console prices keep going up
Microsoft announced a price hike for the Xbox Series consoles today, the third in little over a year. Effective August 1, the Xbox Series S, which launched in 2020 for $300, will cost $500 in the U.S. The Xbox Series X, which launched in 2020 at $500, will go for $800. This follows a round of PlayStation 5 price increases from Sony this spring, and a slow-motion increase for Nintendo’s Switch 2, which will kick in in the U.S. in September. (Mind you, there were also eight video game industry price hikes in six months of 2025). The chart up top shows the sudden ascent of console prices over the past year, a sudden surge in an already unusual hardware generation. Prices had been flat for years, now “up” is the new “flat.” Game console prices used to go down across the length of a console generation, but not this time around. Microsoft’s explanation for the new price hike today: We hoped another price increase would not be necessary, and we have spent the last several months working with suppliers on options. Unfortunately, console storage and memory prices have increased by more than 2.5x and we expect another doubling by the fall of 2027. The entire consumer electronics industry is struggling with the current components crisis, but the effects are particularly hard on consoles. Unlike phones, computers, speakers, and other consumer devices, consoles are typically not sold at a profit, but instead for less than they cost to make. This is an issue well beyond game consoles. Apple announced price hikes on its computers and tablets today as well. Game File is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Subscribe Item 2: Brutal Bungie cuts Bungie laid off “most” of its Destiny development team and some developers who worked on Marathon, the newest game from the struggling Sony-owned studio. A WARN notice issued by Sony to Washington State, where Bungie is based, tallied cuts impacting 292 workers, effective next month. That’s strictly for Bungie/Sony jobs in Washington and wouldn’t account for any elsewhere. The video I clipped below shows the redacted list of Bungie cuts filed to Washington State officials. As you’ll see, I had to scroll for a while… In a note emailed to PlayStation workers and published online, PlayStation game studios chief Hermen Hulst offered the following explanation for these latest cuts at Bungie: This is painful news, especially for talented colleagues whose roles have been eliminated. This decision was made only after extensive discussion and careful consideration, and I want to provide some context on how we arrived here. Over the past several months, together with Bungie leadership, we reviewed the studio’s long-term direction, development priorities, resource needs, and role within our broader portfolio strategy. We explored multiple alternatives before concluding that a reduction was necessary to align the studio’s resources with its current priorities and long-term goals. In 2022, Sony bought Bungie for $3.7 billion. The studio’s marquee game, the multiplayer live service shooter Destiny 2 was losing popularity at the time. Its next game Marathon, released earlier this year, has been well-reviewed but had a slow start. Bungie is renowned for making great shooter games, and Destiny fans have mourned the wind-down of Destiny 2. They’ve also expressed bewilderment over reports that Destiny 3 is not, per Bloomberg, immediately in the cards.
AI designs the ideal burger for taste, health, and planet
Stanford researchers developed an AI tool that creates novel burger recipes optimized for individual preferences. The implications for science go well beyond food.
Health officials: State's first West Nile virus-positive mosquito of the year found in Berkshires
“With warmer weather and summer officially beginning this week, it is the time of year when we typically begin detecting West Nile virus in mosquito populations,” a public health official said.
Growing sinkhole in Houston's Third Ward raising safety concerns for business owner, neighbor
A growing sinkhole behind a property on Scott Street in Houston’s Third Ward is raising concerns for a longtime business owner and her neighbor.
2026 World Cup Is Putting FIFA’s Rules on Political Neutrality to the Test
The World Cup is in full swing across North America, and the U.S. men’s team faces Turkey in its final group round appearance on Thursday. But behind the cheering fans and nail biting matches, FIFA's commitment to political neutrality is put to the test. Marisa sits down with Tariq Panja, global sports correspondent at The New York Times. They dig into the politics behind the games, from restrictions on Iran’s team and President Trump’s unusually close relationship with FIFA president Giann
M6 MacBook Pro Expected This Year With Apple's First 2nm Chip
Apple could launch an updated base model 14-inch MacBook Pro with an M6 chip as soon as this year, reports Bloomberg. There could also be M6 chip updates for the Mac mini, iMac, and MacBook Air, but Apple is testing an M6 MacBook Pro. Apple plans to introduce the M6 in late 2026, and for the first time, it will be a standalone chip. Apple is not working on M6 Pro or M6 Max chips, and will hold off on higher-end chip options until the M7 series launches in 2027.
Digital-Only 'Grand Theft Auto VI' Is a Car Crash for Physical Media
Not all progress is progress.
Palmetto Sports Daily: Hornets star Lamelo Ball traded to Minnesota, Lamont Paris talks NIL negotiations
On the latest episode of Palmetto Sports Daily, the crew discusses the blockbuster trade sending LaMelo Ball to the Minnesota Timberwolves, and SC men’s basketball coach Lamont Paris discusses NIL contracts.
College Sports Commission to continue reviewing deals by multimedia rights companies
A judge ruled that multimedia rights companies that represent university athletic departments can continue to be subject to the same rules governing millions in third party name-image-likeness payments to players that are reshaping college sports.
College Sports Commission to continue reviewing deals by multimedia rights companies
A judge ruled that multimedia rights companies that represent university athletic departments can continue to be subject to the same rules governing millions in third party name-image-likeness payments to players that are reshaping college sports.
Moore links Maryland primary to Mamdani-backed wins; analysts disagree
Gov. Wes Moore says Maryland’s primary election showed voters rejected the status quo, but political analysts say the results reflect a more complicated picture.
Justices Clash on Whether Race Played a Role in Trump’s Bid to Deport Haitians
The split mirrored one that has long divided Americans: how seriously to take the president’s loose, provocative and sometimes ugly remarks.
Business Council deliberations continue with four bill drafts
Lawmakers on the Joint Appropriations Committee spent another day diving through the Wyoming Business Council’s dealings. This time, they also reviewed draft bills that would influence how the council operates.
Less Islamism, More Nationalism
In Iran and across the Middle East, the bond between religion and politics is getting weaker.
Project manager says America’s Time Capsule is a ‘gift to the future’
The vessel will move from Washington to Philadelphia starting Friday.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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