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Fort Bend County Fair to Reveal 2026 Entertainment Lineup at Free Sugar Land Event
SUGAR LAND, Texas (Covering Katy News) — The Fort Bend County Fair and Rodeo will reveal its 2026 entertainment lineup during a free public event Wednesday as the organization prepares to celebrate its 90th anniversary. Fort Bend County Fair 2026 Lineup Reveal Set for July 8 in Sugar Land The “Who’s Playing at the Fair?” gathering is scheduled for 6 to 8 p.m. at Talyard Brewing Company, 1033 Imperial Blvd. Attendees will be the first to learn which artists are set to perform, with giveaways, special guests and family-friendly activities planned. Food and beverages will be available for purchase.2026 Fort Bend County Fair Dates and Schedule The fair’s Championship BBQ Cook-Off is set for Sept. 18-19, with the main fair and rodeo running Sept. 25 through Oct. 4. The events will feature nightly concerts, livestock shows, youth competitions, rodeo performances and carnival attractions. What to Expect at the Fort Bend County Fair 90th Anniversary Celebration "We’re excited to kick off our 90th year by answering the question everyone is asking — who’s playing at the fair?” Fair President Brian Graeber said. “This event is a chance for residents to come together, become part of our fair family, and get an early look at what’s in store for our milestone celebration.” Fort Bend County Fair Scholarship and Youth Impact For 90 years, the Fort Bend County Fair and Rodeo has focused on benefiting youth, promoting agriculture and supporting education. This year, the organization awarded $250,000 in scholarships and generated more than $1.4 million through its junior livestock and other auctions. The lineup reveal is free and open to the public. For more information, visit fortbendcountyfair.com or follow the fair on social media. The fairgrounds are located at 4310 Hwy. 36 South in Rosenberg.
It’s not clear how California’s education power shift will impact schools this year
After California lawmakers and the governor changed state law so the Department of Education is overseen by the governor instead of the state superintendent, it’s unclear how the move will impact the upcoming school year. "What we hope to see is a streamlining of the administration of public education in California," Assembly Education Chairwoman Assemblymember Darshana Patel, D-San Diego, said in an interview on California Politics 360.Patel helped carry the change through legislation at the state Capitol.
Top California public schools chief says he was left out of power shift decision
California’s top public schools official says he was left out of the negotiations and decision-making when the governor and state lawmakers approved a major education overhaul and stripped the Department of Education from his office.
California Politics 360 full episode | Major leadership shift for CA Education Dept.
As lawmakers and the governor passed the state’s spending plan for the year, they also approved a major change in who oversees the California Department of Education.
America's divided birthday
President Trump used his Independence Day speech to warn against communism while promoting his political agenda. DW breaks down the messaging, symbolism, and politics behind Trump's speech with US analyst Scott Lucas.
GentleBrook to operate mobile Snapology franchise
GentleBrook has entered a franchise agreement with Unleased Brands to launch a mobile, Snapology-branded education program.
GentleBrook to operate mobile Snapology franchise
GentleBrook has entered a franchise agreement with Unleased Brands to launch a mobile, Snapology-branded education program.
Lessons from 40 years of writing political columns in NC
John Hood looks back at 40 years of columns, sharing insights on education reform and political accountability.
2026 John Deere Classic Saturday tee times: Round 3 groupings
Full 2026 John Deere Classic tee times for Saturday's third round at TPC Deere Run, featuring Lucas Glover, Max Homa and more.
"Mad Science" at the Olney Public Library
OLNEY - The activity room of the Olney Public Library was packed again Wednesday, as families enjoyed an entertaining and educational afternoon with Dr. Debris for her “Mad Science” show.
KOSA, wage theft and New Britain’s finances: CT Politics news
Plus: Early childhood education funding, UConn Health expansion, free college courses for high schoolers and Eversource's storm costs.
Top science research jobs lack diversity. A California college program aims to curb that
The climate of STEM higher education programs can be unwelcoming for some minority populations.
LSUA breaks ground on health education campus that will train future healthcare workers
LSU-Alexandria breaks ground on its new 43-million-dollar Health Education Campus. University officials say it...
Swift and Kelce surprise charities with $26M donations pre-wedding
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce give $26M to local and national charities, supporting food banks and education ahead of their NYC wedding.
Providing Outdoor Science Education
Science Kids was one of 15 nonprofits that received funding from the Sheridan-Johnson Counties Local Board of the Wyoming Community Foundation as part of their spring competitive grant cycle. Sheridan Media’s Ron Richter has more. Science Kids in Sheridan started in 2009. The nonprofit provides outdoor, hands-on science education and summertime classes for youth ages […]
‘Education, entertainment and celebration’: American Village hosting 2-day event for Fourth of July, America’s 250th
The two day festival spans from July 3 to July 4, bringing together music, history, food, art and family-friendly experiences in a “dynamic and patriotic setting.”
Detroit young adults tour with Usher, gain backstage experience in live entertainment
Four Detroit young adults are getting a rare, behind-the-scenes education in the entertainment industry, touring the country with Usher as part of a first-of-its-kind live-touring internship program.
House panel explores direct health contracting to lower costs
The House Education and Workforce Subcommittee on Health, Employment, Labor and Pensions July 1 examined whether direct health care contracts between employers and providers could help address rising health care costs.
Professor Universe brings science, comedy to the library
Professor Universe will make his first appearance at the St. Charles Parish Library this summer with a one-man show that combines science education and comedy. Professor Universe, portrayed by actor, clown, director and teacher Dallas [...]
30 Crusaders Named Arthur Ashe, Jr. Sports Scholars
WORCESTER, Mass. – The College of the Holy Cross had 30 student-athletes named 2026 Arthur Ashe, Jr. Sports Scholars, honoring their athletic and academic achievements. The awards were announced in the June 8 issue of Diverse: Issues in Higher Education magazine. Leading the way was senior Julian Beban of the men's soccer team, who was one of 10 national finalists for the men's Sports Scholar of the Year award. Beban was also joined by senior Julian Jenkins (men's lacrosse) and senior Emma Tweed (women's rowing) as the top honorees in their respective sports.
Croatia criticised for ‘unambitious’ changes to 2022 science law
Croatia’s science ministry has been accused of a lack of ambition, and even incompetence, over proposed changes to the country’s 2022 science law. Critics say an opportunity has been missed to fix wider shortcomings in the research and universities system.“This law, like all the previous ones, will not significantly change the current state of science in Croatia,” Vlatko Silobrčić, a member of the Croatian Academy of Sciences, told Science Business. “A small shift here and there will not have a significant impact.”The 2022 law introduced multi-year block grant financing of research, based on results, and changes intended to boost employment and career progression for researchers and lecturers. But implementation of the law has been uneven. “It became apparent that certain of its provisions were subject to different interpretations by higher education institutions and scientific institutes,” the science ministry said in its proposal for change. “This caused legal uncertainty in the system, administrative difficulties in implementation and, in certain cases, unequal treatment of teachers, scientists and students.”Most of the proposed amendments deal with technicalities in hiring and promoting staff, such as extending the committee deadlines from 60 to 90 days, or allowing applicants to cite all of their achievements and not only those since their last appointment.Both the ministry and Croatian media highlighted changes that would raise the retirement age from 65 to 67 years and allow part-time students 15 year rather than 10 years to finish their studies.The change to retirement age has been criticised for reinforcing a weakness in the system. According to Matko Marušić, professor emeritus at the University of Split, this will “allow unproductive teachers to advance and work longer, while hindering and discouraging productive ones.”A longtime campaigner for excellence-based meritocracy, he sees little hope in the new legislation. “I am not optimistic that things will improve,” he told Science Business. “As recent changes to the law in Croatia show, the legal framework is becoming increasingly hypocritical and harmful.”For Marušić, who analyses Croatia's university system in a recently published book, the situation is “unfavourable and constantly deteriorating” due to the criteria used for academic advancement.“The key criterion for advancement should be scientific productivity,” he said. “In Croatia [. . .] scientific criteria are increasingly lowered, and ineffective and absurd criteria such as waiting times for promotion and age limits for remaining in a job are promoted.” He would also like to see better criteria for the quality of teaching at universities. “In practice, teaching is not monitored or evaluated,” he said, estimating that up to a third of teaching simply does not take place. “Under the guise of university autonomy and bad laws, universities and faculties are allowed to earn additional money by increasing enrolment quotas that have nothing to do with the needs of the labour market.” Lack of ambitionDora Kršul, a reporter at Telegram.hr who covers science policy in Croatia, finds the rationale for changes “bizarre.” “The ministry responsible for supervising the uniform application of the law is changing the law because it is being implemented unevenly,” she said. “This primarily speaks to the power relationship in the sphere of science and higher education in Croatia, that is, the question arises as to who actually manages this system.”Rather than raising quality, she continued, the changes appear to be designed to help vocational and applied universities who have not been complying with the law.The Independent Union of Research and Higher Education Employees of Croatia said that the changes were “unambitious” and represent a missed opportunity for more important changes. “We think some of the changes are even negative,” it said in its statement on June 25. One of these is introduction of an “assistant” job title that allows people to be hired only for the duration of a project. Related articles: Elections to top science bodies test Croatia’s gender equality in researchSlovakia revises R&D approach to increase focus on competitivenessLatvia pilots citizen engagement in research grant evaluationsThe union’s president, Tvrtko Smital, who was part of the 15-member working group tasked with drafting the changes, told the local media there was a “worrying lack of ambition” in the process, and “lack of competence” in terms of research experience and understanding the problems in the system.“There is no clear will to deal with the problems,” said Smital, an assistant professor of marine and environmental sciences at the Ruđer Bošković Institute in Zagreb. “It’s a combination of unambitiousness and incompetence,” he went on, expressing his “deep frustration” with the situation. “There is no strategy, no clear thinking, and money is not being spent optimally.”Croatia’s science ministry has not responded to requests for comment.
Massachusetts Chooses Literacy Over Union Politics
Governor Maura Healey signs a major education reform bill, showing that even blue states can stand up to teachers’ unions.
The Business Model of Colleges Is Broken. It’s About to Get Worse
Declining enrollment and Trump’s policies are “breaking the business model that built the modern higher education system,” writes Jeffrey Selingo.
Science achievement is not a one-year event
Educational systems often encourage leaders to focus on immediate science achievement while science learning unfolds over many years.
Reflecting on a Year as Athlon Sports' Senior Golf Writer: Lessons from Golf's Stories
One year ago today, I officially began my run as Senior Golf Writer for Athlon Sports. By the time this opportunity arrived, I had already spent nearly three decades in golf as a PGA Professional, coach, educator, business owner, nonprofit founder and writer. The biggest lesson from my first year with Athlon Sports was not about deadlines, access or the volume of stories written.
Local health experts explain cyclosporiasis rise in northwest Ohio, southeast Michigan
Local health officials are reporting a rise in Cyclosporiasis cases across southeast Michigan and northwest Ohio, with Lucas County recording approximately 65 cases and southeast Michigan reporting 170 total, including 90 in Monroe County and 33 in Lenawee County.
Trump's actions signal a move toward institutionalizing people with disabilities, advocates warn
For decades, disabled people have fought for their rights to go to school and live alongside peers without disabilities — rights that some fear could be losing ground under the Trump administration.
Children’s National Boeing School Wellness Symposium brings together health and education leaders
(3 min. read)
Entertainment Listing: July 1
Wednesday July 1 Lost Forest Coffehouse & Pub • Carbondale Bingo night, 7 p.m. – 8 p.m. Carbondale Public Library • Carbondale Family concert with Babaloo, 2 p.m. – 3 p.m. Advertisement Thursday July 2 Booby’s • Carbondale Open mic karaoke, 8:30 p.m. Little Nashville • Marion Lucas Wayne & The Cottonmouths, 6 p.m....
IU Health's 3D printing studio helps surgeons prepare and educate patients
The health system received approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in January for the IU Health 3D Print Studio.
California trucking business files for bankruptcy
Commodity Transporters initiated the Chapter 11 petition.
How Wisconsin Used Foxes And Deer To Revamp Science Education
Public input identifying over 100 million trail cameras photos of Wisconsin’s animals has transformed science education and state wildlife management.
Can GLP-1 medications improve health in people with Type 2 diabetes and PAD?
Research Highlights: GLP-1RA (glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist) medications, which are prescribed to treat Type 2 diabetes and to help with weight loss, were found to reduce the number of deaths, amputations and hospitalizations among people...
Toledo-Lucas County Health Department confirms cases of cyclosporiasis, a parasitic intestinal illness
The Toledo-Lucas County Health Department (TLCHD) has confirmed cases of cyclosporiasis, an intestinal illness caused by a parasite called cyclospora cayetanensis.
Peter Grove, award-winning science educator and lifelong environmentalist, has died at 82
He arrived in Philadelphia in 1972 and spent the next 44 years teaching science, horticulture, and civic responsibility to students young and old.
Green intends to veto just four bills
The measures span issues in education, housing, school facilities and the rainy day fund
About a third of U.S. Democrats like political leaders who identify as democratic socialists
Democrats’ views on democratic socialists also differ by race and ethnicity, age, education, income and political engagement.
Matt Ross Walked Into a Failing Music School and Built It Into a National Brand
Matt Ross’s story traces how he scaled arts education into successful businesses while navigating personal challenges.
Drake University’s Zimpleman College of Business Earns High Rating for Societal Impact
Drake Achieves Level 4 ‘Transforming School’ Designation in the 2026 Positive Impact Rating Drake University and the Zimpleman College of Business have once again secured their position as a global leader in responsible education, earning the prestigious Level 4 “Transforming School” designation in the 2026 Positive Impact Rating (PIR) for business schools. The Positive Impact...
Rafael Nadal talks tennis prize money, his hotels, and what sports taught him about business
Rafael Nadal opened his fourth Zel hotel as he expands into hospitality, education and sports after retiring from tennis.
SGMC Health Welcomes 32 Resident Physicians
SGMC Health welcomes its newest cohort of resident physicians as they begin their clinical training, representing a significant milestone in the continued advancement of the organization’s Graduate Medical Education (GME) program.
As business concerns mount, Washington Gov. Bob Ferguson taps Amazon, Microsoft and others to shape economic strategy
The group includes leaders from technology, aerospace, organized labor, higher education, tribal governments, ports and economic development organizations who will advise the governor on policies aimed at strengthening Washington's economy.
Genesis Celebrates Science Behind Baking
(Southeastern IN) – Genesis: Pathways to Success is celebrating the successful conclusion of Science Behind Baking Camp, an engaging A Summer of STREAM experience that combined nutrition education, teamwork, and hands-on baking. Throughout the camp, […]
WGU’s flexible, skills-first pathways are bridging Detroit’s talent gap
Discover how skills-first education is helping employers address workforce shortages across Southeast Michigan.
New Meat Science Facility in the Works for UF - Agri-Business Southeast AgNET
Dr. Dean Pringle discusses the University of Florida's Apex Center, a new facility focused on meat science, beef research, education, and ...
Is Miami Beach getting a new marine science hub? North Beach residents hope so
Neighbors want the center to educate young people about the area’s marine ecosystems while also serving as an attraction for visitors.
Have a safety fair
Safety fairs are an interactive way for employers to provide education on injury prevention, emergency preparedness and health.
2027 NFL Draft Summer Scouting Report: DJ Lagway, QB, Baylor
Could a change of scenery help rebuild the draft hype of DJ Lagway? Check out his 2027 NFL Draft summer scouting report!
Wife and 2 children of Argentine soccer star discovered dead after earthquakes in Venezuela
Argentine soccer star Lucas Trejo lost his wife, Yanina Maranella, and their two children, Aarón and Ainhoa, in the powerful pair of earthquakes that ravaged Venezuela on June 24.
Efzimfotase alfa demonstrated improvements in bone health in treatment-naïve pediatric patients with hypophosphatasia achieving median difference of 1.67 vs placebo in RGI-C Score at week 25 in MULBERRY Phase III trial
Positive results from the MULBERRY Phase III trial showed that efzimfotase alfa (ALXN1850), an investigational enzyme replacement therapy, demonstrated a statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement in bone health in children (2 to
How did EBS science show reach Netflix's top 10?
For years, South Korea’s public Educational Broadcasting System has struggled to rival the massive budgets of global streaming originals and star-driven mainstr
Raducanu 'plans to play' at Wimbledon despite injury setback
Emma Raducanu says she "plans to play" at Wimbledon despite a leg injury which has put her participation in serious doubt.
Read Michener’s ‘Centennial’
If you’ve been reading my columns, you’ve noticed I’m basically illiterate. I blame my dyslexia and public education, but my Olympic-level laziness could be the driving factor. Anyway, I basically can’t read (and, still, I graduated from CU Boulder, so another endorsement of public higher education). So, for me to recommend a book is like […]
The Arts and Sciences of Judo: The New Edition Expands the Frontiers of Knowledge
The publication of Volume 6, Number 1 of "The Arts and Sciences of Judo" marks another important milestone in the development of judo research worldwide. As the International Judo Federation's interdisciplinary journal, under the supervision of Professor Sanda Čorak, it has become a recognised platform where science, education and the values of judo come together to deepen our understanding of the many dimensions of our sport. It also forms an integral part of the IJF Academy's mission to promote education, lifelong learning and the dissemination of knowledge throughout the global judo community.
Fiorentina agreement for Beltran, but striker resists River Plate
Fiorentina have agreed to sell half of Lucas Beltran to River Plate following the loan at Valencia, but it’s reported the player wants to remain in Europe.The striker spent time in the River Plate a...
McArthur Center to prepare University of Rio Grande health care and manufacturing students
A facility at the University of Rio Grande has opened, offering new educational opportunities for students.The McArthur Center features nine modern classrooms a
Former NFL star Warrick Dunn hosts wellness day with health screenings, financial education
Saturday’s event was centered around improving physical health, financial stability, and mental well-being.
How the dairy industry pushed Trump for migrant labor, and won
President Donald Trump was expected to announce the expansion of a guest-worker program to the dairy industry at a Wisconsin event. Instead, the news came out in a press release, angering immigration hard-liners.
Luca Marini negotiating move to Tech3 KTM for 2027
Marini could now join Tech3 as Vinales' chances of retaining his seat vanish
J. William Fulbright, proponent of cultural exchange, left complex legacy across politics, education
As the Vietnam War heated up, U.S. Sen. J. William Fulbright became uncomfortable with American involvement in the conflict.
J. William Fulbright, proponent of cultural exchange, left complex legacy across politics, education
As the Vietnam War heated up, U.S. Sen. J. William Fulbright became uncomfortable with American involvement in the conflict.
The impact of club sports on student experience in higher education
Authors: Ryan Savitz1, Divit Gupta2, Jared Ward3, Andrew Bjorkelo1 1Neumann University 2Conestoga High School 3Brigham Young University Corresponding Author: Ryan Savitz savitzr@neumann.edu …
A Biden-era student loan plan is going away: What you need to know
Participants in the Saving for a Valuable Education, or SAVE, plan will have 90 days to find a new plan starting Wednesday
Deb Haaland Outlines Small Business Agenda in Address to Albuquerque Chamber
Native Vote 2026 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Deb Haaland (Laguna Pueblo) on Thursday outlined her vision for making New Mexico more welcoming to entrepreneurs and small businesses during an address to the Greater Albuquerque Chamber of Commerce, pledging to reduce regulatory barriers while investing in education, public safety, and economic development. Drawing on her own experience […]
MSU Vet Tech program awarded $150k NIFA-USDA grant
Morehead State University's nationally ranked veterinary technology program was recently awarded significant financial support to help it maintain its place as the #1 program of its kind in Kentucky. The National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA), part of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), awarded MSU's vet tech program a $150,000 NIFA-USDA grant for equipment to support small and large veterinary technology education and workforce competency at MSU. Learn more about veterinary technology programs at MSU by emailing Staton at a.staton@moreheadstate.edu or calling 606-783-2328. Find out more about MSU's veterinary technology program by calling 606-783-2662.
An Unexpected Vocation: Jaibir Nihal Singh’s Journey from Film Student to Business Executive
Though trained as a filmmaker at Pepperdine University’s Seaver College, Jaibir Nihal Singh found a way to leverage his creative skills into a career as a successful innovator. Now, as a member of Forbes 30 under 30, Singh credits his education as the launchpad for his vocation, even if he never saw it coming.
We cut MBA prices because America needs more professionals, not fewer
America is running short on educated workers at the exact moment when they matter the most.
Texas school board to vote on required Bible readings in public education
If approved by the Texas State Board of Education, which is controlled by Republicans, the reading list would take effect in 2030.
Ball State Teacher Preparation Programs Earn Top Ratings in Science of Reading Reviews
By Ball State Communications— MUNCIE, Indiana — Ball State University’s elementary education, early childhood education, and special education teacher preparation programs have earned top marks in two reviews focused on how well future educators are prepared to teach reading through evidence-based,
Braille is literacy: Rice researchers are reshaping the science of reading
As schools across the country increasingly embrace evidence-based approaches to reading instruction through the science of reading, two Rice researchers are leading an effort to ensure students who learn through braille are not left out of the research shaping literacy education.
Discovery Education Earns Five 2026 CODiE Award Nominations Spanning Math, Science, Digital Citizenship, and Immersive Learning
Discovery Education Earns Five 2026 CODiE Award Nominations Spanning Math, Science, Digital Citizenship, and Immersive Learning
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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