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Science news this week: Exploding rocket overshadows NASA's next steps to the moon, 'Doomsday Glacier' faces big loss, quantum computer AI hybrid shows impressive results, and war deepens Iran's water crisis
May 30, 2026: Our weekly roundup of the latest science in the news, as well as a few fascinating articles to keep you entertained over the weekend
Scott Bessent says US seized roughly $1B in Iranian crypto as regime nears 'end of their tether'
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the U.S. has seized roughly $1 billion in Iranian cryptocurrency assets as Operation Economic Fury pushes Iran's economy toward collapse.
Trump Says He’s Not Watching the Clock on Iran—but Voters Are | Council on Foreign Relations
Trump’s sagging poll numbers and the surging support for Democrats suggest that Republicans will likely pay a price for the war in November.
Trump’s inconsistent rhetoric about getting Iran’s nuclear stockpile
As the United States and Iran try to hammer out a deal to start winding down the war, few particulars loom as large as what happens with Iran’s nuclear stockpile.
Trump holds Situation Room meeting to decide on Iran deal
Trump faced a politically fraught decision to enter an agreement that would invariably require significant concessions to Tehran.
Trump: the boy who cried ‘peace’ in the Middle East
This week, as the US-Iran deal remains in a precarious state, Jonathan Freedland speaks to Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group about why Trump keeps changing his mind on what to do to end the war
Azmoun: Iran's absent talisman unafraid of controversy
Sardar Azmoun is Iran's third top scorer in history with a successful club career behind him but is set to miss out on the 2026 World Cup in an exclusion shadowed by political controversy."At a historical turning point, Sardar Azmoun stood on the wrong side," said the pro-government Fars news agency, accusing the player, a racehorse breeder in his spare time, of "betting on the losing horse" in a "gamble that meant missing the World Cup".
Global stocks rise and oil price slips amid hopes of US-Iran peace deal
Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news
Trump’s Iran Approach Sows Confusion
President Trump’s pendulum swings on Iran have often seemed driven by mood and moment rather than any discernible strategy.
UK business sentiment edges up in May, Lloyds says
British business sentiment edged up in May and is now close to its level before the Iran war, according to a monthly survey by Lloyds on Friday which contrasted with most other measures of business and consumer sentiment.
Trump's DOJ sues 4 Democratic-run states over denying undercover license plates for federal agents
The Department of Justice alleges in separate lawsuits announced Thursday that Maine, Massachusetts, Oregon, and Washington state are imposing unconstitutional restrictions that it says impede law enforcement and threaten agents’ safety.
DC Wrap: Trump mulls tentative Iran ceasefire deal; DOJ probes E. Jean Carroll
A look at the day's biggest stories in national politics
Ex-counterterrorism chief warns of 'major problem' that could force US 'back into the war on Iran’s terms'
Ex-counterterror official Joe Kent warns keeping U.S. forces near Iran puts U.S. at risk of being 'forced back into the war on Iran’s terms'
Fed's favored inflation gauge remained elevated in April
The latest PCE inflation data was released by the Commerce Department and showed that inflation rose and remained elevated in April due in part to the Iran war's impact.
Polish scientists and students rally in campaign for 3% funding target
Polish scientists and students have been flooding social media with calls on the government to raise research and development spending as part of 3% for Science, 100% for Poland, a campaign born earlier this month out of frustration with chronic underfunding in the academic sector. On May 27, thousands took the slogan on to the streets.The EU has been trying to convince member states to raise their R&D expenditures to 3% of GDP for more than two decades, but the idea has never gained traction in capitals. Finance ministers were too busy plugging budget holes created in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis, then the Covid pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and now the war in Iran.Critics say that countries missed or ignored the target because it is voluntary, but also because research communities have rarely raised their voice to put pressure on national governments. The European Commission hopes to make the target legally binding in the upcoming European Research Area Act, an EU-wide regulation that should be announced by the end of the year. Academia in Poland has been faced with a funding crisis for years, often leaving its members with no other choice but to work abroad in order to access better resources, or leave the sector altogether in the hope of earning a decent living. The risk, in the long-term, is that brain drain stifles local innovation capacity and technological competitiveness.In just a few weeks, the movement rallied nationwide support, including from major academic bodies and trade unions such as the Conference of Rectors of Academic Schools in Poland and the Presidium of the Polish Academy of Sciences. Its public petition collected more than 23,000 signatures. On May 27, it formed the first large protest for science in Poland, gathering thousands of people in front of the parliament building in Warsaw.Ilona Uryga-Bugajska, representative of the Marie Curie Alumni Association Poland Chapter, was there. “The protest was peaceful, with no incidents reported, and the entire event took place in a respectful and calm atmosphere,” she said. Banners she saw in the crowd carried slogans such as “A little longer and I’ll be teaching in a supermarket,” “National culture, starvation salary,” “Stop the destruction of science,” “Passion will not pay the rent,” “Without action, don’t expect a better future,” and “Pull science out of the hole.” She also observed a strong presence of young researchers, who are on the frontline of Poland’s academic crisis.“Academics are usually people who prefer discussion, analysis, dialogue and compromise. We are not a group that protests easily,” said Katarzyna Marzec, professor at the Faculty of Pharmacy of the Jagiellonian University Medical College and AGH University of Krakow, who also took part. “But many of us feel that we have been pushed against the wall.”Aleksandra Rutkowska, translational neuroscientist and research group leader at the Medical University of Gdańsk, agreed. “Frustration in the scientific community is very high,” she said. “Science is often used politically as a symbol of innovation and modernity, but the everyday reality inside many institutions is much more difficult. There is a large gap between the public narrative and the actual condition of the sector.”Maria Wiktoria Górna, head of the structural biology group at the University of Warsaw and one of the organisers of the movement, told Science|Business that the campaign would continue without proven results. This might involve another strike in the autumn, she said. “Empty promises are not enough by now.”Campaign demandsAccording to Uryga-Bugajska, the organisers officially presented their demands and concerns to representatives of the government present at the event. These included Marek Gzik, deputy minister of science and higher education, and Karolina Zioło-Pużuk, secretary of state of that same ministry.The headline demand, for the government to increase national spending on R&D to 3% of GDP by 2030, should be within Poland’s economic capacity, Rutkowska said. “The real question is whether there is genuine long-term political commitment to treating science as a strategic priority rather than a slogan.”In 2024, R&D expenditure in Poland stood at 1.41% of GDP, which is slightly above the average for central and eastern Europe, with countries such as Czechia recording 1.82%, Hungary 1.31% and Romania 0.46%. However, it falls noticeably short of the EU average of 2.24%, which just a handful of countries exceed, including Germany, Belgium and Sweden.Campaigners are also asking for fair wages for scientific staff, including PhD stipends and junior academic salaries, which are widely considered uncompetitive. Starting doctoral scholarships amount to some €843 gross per month, when the statutory minimum wage stands at €1,135. By pushing early-career researchers out of Poland, growing precarity has caused a generational gap in the academic workforce, with just 25% of lecturers aged under 40. In this context, the movement fears that scientific careers could soon be accessible to a privileged minority only.Grzegorz Spólnik is a case in point. After 15 years working in mass spectrometry at the Polish Academy of Sciences, he decided to leave partly “to earn enough money to live a normal life,” he said. “At that time, my earnings were similar to those of people working in grocery shops, and the work-life balance is something that does not exist in science, or is very hard to achieve.”Now a senior field service engineer for Polish laboratory equipment supplier Bioanalytic, he would consider going back to research, “but never in the public sector, maybe some start-up or a big private company with ambitious R&D.”The campaigners want to see more support for basic research and have called for €236 million to be added to the budget of the National Science Centre (NCN) in 2027 so that the average grant application success rate does not fall below 25%.“At the protest, there was a banner I particularly liked: ‘NCN is not a lottery.’ Unfortunately, for many researchers, it increasingly feels exactly like one,” Marzec said. “Personally, I am one of the lucky ones. I work at two of the strongest institutions in the country, where the research standards are very high. I know that in many other institutions, the situation is much worse and obtaining funding for research at an early-career stage is becoming nearly impossible.”Rutkowska also considers herself fortunate. After studying abroad and holding a postdoctoral position, she returned to Poland, where her pay was supported through an NCN-funded project linked to the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions. “This also made me very aware that good research conditions in Poland often depend on external competitive funding rather than on stable support from the system itself,” she said.Long-term strategyBeyond the lack of funds for both salaries and grants, scientists believe that the issue is structural. “The biggest problem at the moment is the complete lack of a clear long-term strategy for the development of science and research from the current government,” Marzec said. “Everything ends with declarations and promises that are never truly followed by concrete actions or structural reforms.”Rutkowska agreed, citing a lack of infrastructure, continuity and long-term institutional support.“Running a research group in Poland often means functioning as an entire institution at once,” she said. “I am a principal investigator, a mentor, a recruiter, a project administrator and, when needed, still someone who returns to the lab bench to help with experiments,” she went on. “This creates a large hidden workload that takes time and energy away from actual science. At times, it feels as though scientists are no longer expecting extra help; we simply hope the system will stop creating additional obstacles that make research unnecessarily difficult.”Related articlesStrategic thinking: Germany funds joint research with Poland and FrancePoland to transfer €30M of regional funds to boost Horizon Europe participationPoland is funding fewer basic research grants as high inflation hitsIn short, “academics are expected to teach, publish papers, apply for grants and conduct high-quality research, while funding and salaries remain very limited,” said Uryga-Bugajska, who returned to her home country after 13 years in the UK.According to Marzec, another issue is the way that research institutions are evaluated. Previously, this took place every four years, with a clear differentiation between stronger and weaker institutions. “The current government, perhaps to avoid political backlash, effectively concluded that everyone is doing well, so in practice no meaningful evaluation took place,” she said.But in her view, “some form of serious assessment is necessary” to ensure the excellence and international competitiveness of Polish institutions, and to determine how to best use public resources and where institutional structures need reform. “Some institutions may need to rethink hiring practices in order to attract ambitious young researchers who are capable of obtaining competitive grants and building internationally visible research groups.” Rutkowska has already had to adapt. “When hiring PhD students, I often have to combine different funding sources creatively to make positions attractive enough for talented people to stay in science,” she said. “Many young researchers do not see a stable future in academia in Poland, and that is deeply worrying.”
Polish scientists and students rally in campaign for better conditions
Polish scientists and students have been flooding social media with calls on the government to raise research and development spending as part of 3% for Science, 100% for Poland, a campaign born earlier this month out of frustration with chronic underfunding in the academic sector. On May 27, thousands took the slogan on to the streets.The EU has been trying to convince member states to raise their R&D expenditures to 3% of GDP for more than two decades, but the idea has never gained traction in capitals. Finance ministers were too busy plugging budget holes created in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis, then the Covid pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and now the war in Iran.Critics say that countries missed or ignored the target because it is voluntary, but also because research communities have rarely raised their voice to put pressure on national governments. The European Commission hopes to make the target legally binding in the upcoming European Research Area Act, an EU-wide regulation that should be announced by the end of the year. Academia in Poland has been faced with a funding crisis for years, often leaving its members with no other choice but to work abroad in order to access better resources, or leave the sector altogether in the hope of earning a decent living. The risk, in the long-term, is that brain drain stifles local innovation capacity and technological competitiveness.In just a few weeks, the movement rallied nationwide support, including from major academic bodies and trade unions such as the Conference of Rectors of Academic Schools in Poland and the Presidium of the Polish Academy of Sciences. Its public petition collected more than 23,000 signatures. On May 27, it formed the first large protest for science in Poland, gathering thousands of people in front of the parliament building in Warsaw.Ilona Uryga-Bugajska, representative of the Marie Curie Alumni Association Poland Chapter, was there. “The protest was peaceful, with no incidents reported, and the entire event took place in a respectful and calm atmosphere,” she said. Banners she saw in the crowd carried slogans such as “A little longer and I’ll be teaching in a supermarket,” “National culture, starvation salary,” “Stop the destruction of science,” “Passion will not pay the rent,” “Without action, don’t expect a better future,” and “Pull science out of the hole.” She also observed a strong presence of young researchers, who are on the frontline of Poland’s academic crisis.“Academics are usually people who prefer discussion, analysis, dialogue and compromise. We are not a group that protests easily,” said Katarzyna Marzec, professor at the Faculty of Pharmacy of the Jagiellonian University Medical College and AGH University of Krakow, who also took part. “But many of us feel that we have been pushed against the wall.”Aleksandra Rutkowska, translational neuroscientist and research group leader at the Medical University of Gdańsk, agreed. “Frustration in the scientific community is very high,” she said. “Science is often used politically as a symbol of innovation and modernity, but the everyday reality inside many institutions is much more difficult. There is a large gap between the public narrative and the actual condition of the sector.”Maria Wiktoria Górna, head of the structural biology group at the University of Warsaw and one of the organisers of the movement, told Science|Business that the campaign would continue without proven results. This might involve another strike in the autumn, she said. “Empty promises are not enough by now.”Campaign demandsAccording to Uryga-Bugajska, the organisers officially presented their demands and concerns to representatives of the government present at the event. These included Marek Gzik, deputy minister of science and higher education, and Karolina Zioło-Pużuk, secretary of state of that same ministry.The headline demand, for the government to increase national spending on R&D to 3% of GDP by 2030, should be within Poland’s economic capacity, Rutkowska said. “The real question is whether there is genuine long-term political commitment to treating science as a strategic priority rather than a slogan.”In 2024, R&D expenditure in Poland stood at 1.41% of GDP, which is slightly above the average for central and eastern Europe, with countries such as Czechia recording 1.82%, Hungary 1.31% and Romania 0.46%. However, it falls noticeably short of the EU average of 2.24%, which just a handful of countries exceed, including Germany, Belgium and Sweden.Campaigners are also asking for fair wages for scientific staff, including PhD stipends and junior academic salaries, which are widely considered uncompetitive. Starting doctoral scholarships amount to some €843 gross per month, when the statutory minimum wage stands at €1,135. By pushing early-career researchers out of Poland, growing precarity has caused a generational gap in the academic workforce, with just 25% of lecturers aged under 40. In this context, the movement fears that scientific careers could soon be accessible to a privileged minority only.Grzegorz Spólnik is a case in point. After 15 years working in mass spectrometry at the Polish Academy of Sciences, he decided to leave partly “to earn enough money to live a normal life,” he said. “At that time, my earnings were similar to those of people working in grocery shops, and the work-life balance is something that does not exist in science, or is very hard to achieve.”Now a senior field service engineer for Polish laboratory equipment supplier Bioanalytic, he would consider going back to research, “but never in the public sector, maybe some start-up or a big private company with ambitious R&D.”The campaigners want to see more support for basic research and have called for €236 million to be added to the budget of the National Science Centre (NCN) in 2027 so that the average grant application success rate does not fall below 25%.“At the protest, there was a banner I particularly liked: ‘NCN is not a lottery.’ Unfortunately, for many researchers, it increasingly feels exactly like one,” Marzec said. “Personally, I am one of the lucky ones. I work at two of the strongest institutions in the country, where the research standards are very high. I know that in many other institutions, the situation is much worse and obtaining funding for research at an early-career stage is becoming nearly impossible.”Rutkowska also considers herself fortunate. After studying abroad and holding a postdoctoral position, she returned to Poland, where her pay was supported through an NCN-funded project linked to the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions. “This also made me very aware that good research conditions in Poland often depend on external competitive funding rather than on stable support from the system itself,” she said.Long-term strategyBeyond the lack of funds for both salaries and grants, scientists believe that the issue is structural. “The biggest problem at the moment is the complete lack of a clear long-term strategy for the development of science and research from the current government,” Marzec said. “Everything ends with declarations and promises that are never truly followed by concrete actions or structural reforms.”Rutkowska agreed, citing a lack of infrastructure, continuity and long-term institutional support.“Running a research group in Poland often means functioning as an entire institution at once,” she said. “I am a principal investigator, a mentor, a recruiter, a project administrator and, when needed, still someone who returns to the lab bench to help with experiments,” she went on. “This creates a large hidden workload that takes time and energy away from actual science. At times, it feels as though scientists are no longer expecting extra help; we simply hope the system will stop creating additional obstacles that make research unnecessarily difficult.”Related articlesStrategic thinking: Germany funds joint research with Poland and FrancePoland to transfer €30M of regional funds to boost Horizon Europe participationPoland is funding fewer basic research grants as high inflation hitsIn short, “academics are expected to teach, publish papers, apply for grants and conduct high-quality research, while funding and salaries remain very limited,” said Uryga-Bugajska, who returned to her home country after 13 years in the UK.According to Marzec, another issue is the way that research institutions are evaluated. Previously, this took place every four years, with a clear differentiation between stronger and weaker institutions. “The current government, perhaps to avoid political backlash, effectively concluded that everyone is doing well, so in practice no meaningful evaluation took place,” she said.But in her view, “some form of serious assessment is necessary” to ensure the excellence and international competitiveness of Polish institutions, and to determine how to best use public resources and where institutional structures need reform. “Some institutions may need to rethink hiring practices in order to attract ambitious young researchers who are capable of obtaining competitive grants and building internationally visible research groups.” Rutkowska has already had to adapt. “When hiring PhD students, I often have to combine different funding sources creatively to make positions attractive enough for talented people to stay in science,” she said. “Many young researchers do not see a stable future in academia in Poland, and that is deeply worrying.”
After Rich Colleges Raid Basketball Team, School Exits D1 Sports
(Bloomberg) -- Saint Francis University was out of its league, and Father Malachi Van Tassell knew it.Most Read from BloombergSingapore Hands Byju's Founder His First Ever Jail TermIran’s Khamenei Says No Going Back for Middle East Rocked by WarTwo More Oil Supertankers Exit Hormuz to Help Push Up FlowsEx-President Biden Sues to Stop DOJ Sharing Interview Tapes‘KPop Demon Hunters’ Studio Draws Tencent Music InvestmentBigger, richer universities were raiding its men’s basketball team, luring away
The YOLO Caucus Is Growing. What Does It Have Planned? | WSJ Politics Newsletter for May 28
Plus, President Trump says Iran is miscalculating his urgency to end the war, and the administration’s new bank accounts for children goes live
Eurozone Economic Confidence Rises Despite Iran War Energy Shocks
Selling-price expectations eased across all business sectors, interrupting the steep upward trend seen in the last two months.
Iran: Mass arbitrary arrests and political executions mark intensifying repression
Iranian authorities are using the cover of what they call “wartime conditions” to intensify their repression of dissent through mass arbitrary arrests, accelerated grossly unfair judicial proceedings, politically motivated executions, harsh prison sentences, and asset confiscations, Amnesty International said today. Since the unlawful military attack launched by the USA and Israel against Iran on 28 […]
Iran’s forever war: Deal or no deal, Iran’s challenge to America will outlast Trump
Shortly after I landed in Baghdad for the first time in January 2004, US intelligence services intercepted a letter from Ayman al-Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden’s deputy, to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the leader of al Qaeda in Iraq. The letter discussed the use of ruthless violence to establish an Islamic caliphate— first inside Iraq and ultimately across the broader Middle East.
Asian shares decline and oil prices up more than $1 after US strikes on Iran
Shares are mostly lower in Asia after the U.S. conducted what the military said were defensive strikes against Iran.
Trump says he’s not thinking about politics during Iran nuclear talks
President Trump said he’s not thinking about the midterms as he tries to wrangle a deal to stop Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. All as former first lady Jill Biden made new comments about her husband’s disastrous 2024 debate. NBC News’ Gabe Gutierrez reports.
DC Wrap: Trump says Iran 'negotiating on fumes'; Alabama turns to Supreme Court
A look at the day's biggest stories in national politics
Trump says Iran is 'negotiating on fumes,' believes regime thought they could outwait him
President Trump declares Iran's navy and air force are gone, warns at Cabinet meeting he may have to finish the job if no deal is reached soon.
Can Trump make anybody happy with an Iran deal?
Some GOP allies want escalation. Others want to end unpopular war.
Trump Says Iran Has Misjudged, Assumed He Feared Political Fallout of War
The president said at a cabinet meeting that he wasn’t worried about the midterms.
Trump tells PBS News that Iran would not get sanctions relief in exchange for giving up highly enriched uranium
His comments come as the United States and Iran try to strike a deal to end the conflict that has engulfed the Middle East for the last three months.
Sports Minister: ‘Not appropriate’ for Italy to take World Cup spot
Italy’s Minister for Sport, Andrea Abodi, asserts that it is neither ‘possible’ nor ‘appropriate’ for the Azzurri to be considered for admission to the World Cup as a replacement for Iran.It...
Trump might not have a good way out of the Iran war
President Donald Trump’s war with Iran hasn’t exactly been a rousing success so far. And much of the American public expects that the conflict’s end — whenever that will be — won’t change that.
DC Wrap: Iran accuses U.S. of violating ceasefire; redistrict push set back
A look at the day's biggest stories in national politics
Trump still thinks he’s winning in Iran
Despite everything, the president is holding out for more before he ends the war.
Bombing the Hell Out of Iran Sure is a Weird Way to Celebrate Peace With... Iran
Right as things were—by Trump’s telling—just about sewed up, the strikes resumed. The art of the deal!
Ousted Senate Republican digs in against Trump, takes jab at leadership style
Sen. Bill Cassidy breaks with Trump on Iran war powers and DOJ spending after the president backed his opponent in Louisiana's Senate primary race.
Trump convenes rare Camp David Cabinet meeting as Iran deal pressure grows
President Trump convenes a rare Cabinet meeting at Camp David as high-stakes negotiations with Iran enter a critical phase amid a fraying ceasefire.
The Latest: Iran deal progress is murky after US military says it carried out ‘self-defense’ strikes
President Donald Trump insists a peace deal is close on this 88th day of the Iran war, but Iran on Tuesday denounced U.S. strikes a day earlier as a sign of “bad faith and unreliability” as negotiations continue.
Three Big Political Story Lines to Watch This Week
Plus, President Trump widened his diplomatic sights, seeking an agreement to normalize relations between Israel and the broader Middle East, in addition to an Iran deal.
Mexico agrees to host Iran at 2026 World Cup
Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum has confirmed her country will host Iran during the 2026 World Cup amid tensions with the United States.Sheinbaum said that FIFA had approached Mexico after the US ...
Oil price rises towards $100 a barrel as markets cling to US-Iran peace deal hopes
Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news
A ruse, a brave gamble or a fantasy? Why Trump’s most puzzling Iran move yet is unlikely to work
If Donald Trump’s search for a way out of the Iran war was not difficult enough, he’s added a new goal that threatens to vastly complicate the Middle East’s already splintered politics.
Shakespeare, trans politics and tigers: Lunch with Eddie Izzard is a dizzying business
The British comedian/actor/runner/political aspirant has some left-of-field stories to tell.
‘She the People’: The Zia Singers to honor American political women in concert
John Tiranno, director of The Zia Singers, joins "Conversations Different" to discuss the group's May concert "She the People."
Israeli opposition leader Lapid says Trump’s emerging deal with Iran is 'bad for the region'
The deal being discussed between the U.S. and Iran fails to achieve any of Israel’s goals for the war, Israel’s opposition leader Yair Lapid said on Monday, as he accused Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of failing to influence a better agreement.
Trump calls on Arab nations to sign Abraham Accords
Trump says Muslim-majority nations should sign onto the Abraham Accords if they want to participate in a developing Iran agreement, per reports.
Trump says it should be ‘mandatory’ for more countries to join the Abraham Accords as part of Iran deal
The president said Saudi Arabia and Qatar should “immediately” sign on to the agreements, first signed in 2020 during his first administration.
US strikes southern Iran, including boats attempting to lay mines
U.S. Central Command said the strikes were designed "to protect our troops from threats posed by Iranian forces."
Trump Urges More Countries to Normalize Relations With Israel as Part of Iran Deal
President Trump called for countries in the Middle East to join the Abraham Accords as part of a peace deal with Iran. Analysts say it is unlikely.
Rash: DEED ‘Choose Minnesota’ campaign to boost small businesses
The initiative comes as Operation Metro Surge, tariffs and the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran challenge this backbone of the state’s economy and society, columnist John Rash writes.
Why Trump’s possible Iran deal may be almost as divisive as his decision to wage war
The best hope for ending a poorly planned war started with scant consultation with Congress or the American people may be an unsatisfactory peace that leaves critical issues to be resolved later and deepens Washington strife.
Netanyahu increasingly isolated as Trump pursues Iran peace deal
The lack of a decisive victory in the Iran war has led to Trump losing confidence in the Israeli prime minister, analysts say.
Trump’s emerging plan to end Iran war draws criticism from hard-line Republicans
President Donald Trump’s emerging deal to end the Iran war is drawing heavy criticism from some fellow Republicans who favor a harder line against the government in Tehran and fear a lost opportunity to finally rein in a longtime Mideast nemesis.
Oil Prices Fall on News of Possible Iran Deal
S&P 500 futures were up slightly in what may be a sign that investors and analysts are waiting to see if a deal is finalized.
Republicans who have drawn a hard line on Iran pan Trump's emerging proposal to end the war
President Donald Trump’s emerging deal to end the Iran war is drawing heavy criticism from some fellow Republicans.
Republicans who have drawn a hard line on Iran pan Trump's emerging proposal to end the war
President Donald Trump’s emerging deal to end the Iran war is drawing heavy criticism from some fellow Republicans.
Why Trump Lost to Iran
The president failed to deliver on his Iran bluster, and in the end fooled only himself.
Himes: ‘Political toxicity’ of Iran war leading Trump to ‘surrender’
Politics chat: Tulsi Gabbard steps down, lawmakers oppose proposed $1.2 billion fund
President Trump posts that negotiations with Iran are progressing. Meanwhile, there's discontent within his own party over his midterm primary endorsements and $1.8 billion "anti-weaponization" fund.
Chinese traders in Iran keep business afloat as war capsizes naval shipping
Extended disruption caused by conflict has prompted Chinese merchants to turn to railway and land transport routes to trade goods.
Video: Trump Says U.S. Close to Peace Agreement With Iran
President Trump said on Saturday the United States was close to reaching a deal with Iran toward ending the war there. The deal, which he said would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, was subject to finalization by the U.S., Iran, and other countries.
Trump says U.S., Iran are 'getting a lot closer,' but questions remain about concessions
Iran reportedly says the draft pact will be a “framework agreement” that defers talks toward limiting Iran’s nuclear program until later.
Trump says Iran deal ‘largely negotiated’ as 84-day war nears possible end
President Donald Trump announced progress toward a deal with Iran after talks with regional leaders, saying final details will be announced shortly.
Bond breakout? Big effects of bad data. Immigration and thermostatic politics & dad-chat is coming for dad-books.
Thank you for opening your Chartbook email. Anna Airy, A Shell Forge at a National Projectile Factory, Hackney Marshes, London, 1918 Bond breakout - John Authers Across the developed markets, bond markets are staging a slow-motion car wreck. Looking at the drastic moves in the US, Japan, the UK and France, Barclays’ Ajay Rajadhyaksha commented: “Last week, long bonds broke. Not in one country. In all of them. Simultaneously. Four countries. Four different political systems. Four different central banks. But the same trade — “get me out of duration!”” Each country has its own contributing political problems, but the uniformity of the shift out of long-term bonds with high duration makes clear that something broader is afoot. For Rajadhyaksha, it is “simple and uncomfortable.” The developed world “has too much debt, too little fiscal discipline, and no political appetite for fixing either.” If there’s a trigger, it has been the Iran war and the resulting shock to oil supply. Source: Bloomberg G7 countries are now borrowing at rates that were enjoyed by EM in the early 2020s For contributing subscribers only. Subscribe Trade between China and Russia has grown in recent years For contributing subscribers only. Subscribe Big effects of bad data A decade ago nearly nine in ten Americans, when approached, agreed to fill out the Current Population Survey, which is administered to about 60,000 households each month and asks about, among other things, employment. Fewer than seven in ten do so now (see chart 1). For the Consumer Expenditure Survey, which tries to capture 3,700 households monthly, the response rate is down from 68% to 40%. … When the information becomes less reliable, investment decisions get more difficult to make. Some may be delayed, creating a potential drag on the economy. A new working paper by Nicholas Bloom of Stanford University, Erica Groshen, former head of the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) now at Cornell University, and Duncan Hobbs and Michael Strain of the American Enterprise Institute, a think-tank, hazards an estimate. Preserving trust in “the integrity and quality of official statistics”, the authors claim, generates economic benefits of about $25 for every $1 spent on the BLS, the agency with an annual budget of $700m that is responsible for many of these data. To arrive at their conclusion the quartet analysed an ignoble episode in the BLS’s recent history. On August 1st 2025 Donald Trump sacked Erika McEntarfer, appointed as the agency’s commissioner by his predecessor, Joe Biden. The president alleged, without evidence, that the BLS’s steep downward revision to recent jobs numbers had been “RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad”. In fact, it was the wanton dismissal that looked bad in the eyes of many observers. In the following seven days there was a 50% leap, relative to the week before, in the average value of the index of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU), which tracks the number of articles mentioning such uncertainty that are published daily in American newspapers. This was a discernible jump even when compared to the chaos caused by Mr Trump’s trade war in April 2025 and his real one in Iran in the past two months (see chart 2). Based on Mr Bloom’s earlier study with other colleagues of the EPU’s impact on business investment, industrial production and employment, the authors estimate that the jump reduced American GDP by over $100bn (0.3%) and non-farm payrolls by 168,000 (0.1%). Source: The Economist Immigration and thermostatic politics (Sarah O’Connor in the FT) A strange thing happened a year and a half ago. No sooner had Americans elected Donald Trump as president on an explicitly anti-immigration platform than US public opinion began to swing much more favourably towards immigration. … to political scientists who study “thermostatic” politics, this development is no surprise at all. Public opinion often moves against the prevailing party, especially if they are perceived to have gone “too far” in one direction. The phenomenon was first explored in the 1990s with reference to fiscal policy, but in recent years it has been particularly evident in the realm of immigration policy. While these swings in opinion polls can make it seem as if people don’t know their own minds, they can be a useful democratic check on governments by sending bright flashing warning lights when policies stray too far from the public’s comfort zone. The problem comes when politicians misinterpret those signals. When people tell pollsters they want less immigration, or think it is bad for the country overall (or the converse), they are often expressing an opinion about how things appear to be going in that moment relative to their preferences, rather than a deep shift in their underlying views. According to Alexander Kustov, a political scientist, most Americans’ views are quite stable and moderate: they support immigration that is controlled and in the national interest, and oppose flows that are disorderly or under-enforced. In the US, he argues the Trump administration over-interpreted dissatisfaction with high immigration under Joe Biden, and implemented policies that went too far for many voters. “People don’t necessarily change their idea about their ideal immigration policy, but they can react to what the government is currently doing,” he told me. “A lot of people are not happy with what the Trump administration are doing — right now we’re not talking about border enforcement, we’re talking about people not just getting harassed, but killed.” But similarly, he added, pro-immigration advocates would be making a mistake to interpret the recent, more favourable swing towards immigration as a deep-seated ideological shift in attitudes. The recent history of UK immigration policy offers another cautionary tale. After the 2016 Brexit referendum, public concern about immigration fell. This was partly because net migration statistics declined, but also because people felt a sense of catharsis and control, says Sunder Katwala, director of British Future, a think-tank. By 2019, the public ranked immigration as only the ninth biggest issue of concern, according to Ipsos polling. But when the Conservative government liberalised visa routes for students and care workers between 2019 and 2022, that helped net migration to surge. And so, too, did public concern. Today’s Labour government has implemented another sharply restrictive turn in immigration policy. As Kustov and researcher Caitlyn Yates argue, thermostatic public opinion should be a useful check on politicians. Instead it seems to have helped to magnify the pendulum swing in the UK. The government over-interprets and overreacts to a change in public opinion, which reacts in turn, prompting a sudden swing the other way. Source: Financial Times HEY READERS, THANK YOU for opening the Chartbook email. I hope it brightens your day. I enjoy putting out the newsletter, but tbh, what keeps this flow going is the generosity of those readers who clicked the subscription button. If you are persuaded to click, please consider the annual subscription of $50. It is both better value for you and a much better deal for me, as it involves only one credit card charge. Why feed the payments companies if we don’t have to. Subscribe Anna Airy, Shop for Machining 15-Inch Shells: Singer Manufacturing Company, Clydebank, Glasgow, 1918 Racing for a vaccine … we have been here before! The deadly Ebola outbreak in two African countries driven by a virus species with no vaccine has triggered an urgent search for a potential jab, in a test of troubled global efforts to avert threats posed by emerging diseases. A World Health Organization advisory group is due to would meet on Tuesday to recommend candidate jabs to prioritise for clinical trials, the global health body said. It will assess data including an analysis by the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (Cepi), which was set up after failures in the international response to a previous Ebola crisis. The latest Ebola outbreak in Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda has infected hundreds of people and killed more than 80, health authorities say. Cepi’s reaction will be a crucial indicator of its progress towards its wider goal of producing vaccines for pandemic threats in just 100 days, despite steep cuts to international health funding. “If there was ever a time that we could show the world why Cepi is needed and show the world why the 100-day mission is needed, it’s now,” Nicole Lurie, the organisation’s executive director for preparedness and response, told the FT. “We’re happy to accept that responsibility, but obviously we need help from partners — particularly financial help in the long run.” DR Congo and Uganda would make the final decision on whether to press ahead with any vaccine candidates endorsed for clinical trials by the WHO experts, the global health body said. “Other ethical and community acceptability issues will be considered,” said the WHO, which declared the latest outbreak a public health emergency of international concern on Sunday. “This will be important to make sure that the trial, if it happens, will be adequately communicated to the population.” Lurie said Cepi had provided information from a survey of research teams and companies working on drugs that might be effective against the Bundibugyo virus behind the outbreak. The organisation hoped soon to announce partners in the quest for a jab, she added, although she declined to give a timescale for when one might be developed. Cepi’s Nicole Laurie said global health bodies were ‘getting some live-fire drills’ with hantavirus and the latest Ebola outbreak. The hunt for a vaccine should be helped by scientific advances including the use of artificial intelligence to find drugs active against viruses, Lurie said. Existing jabs against the Zaire Ebola virus responsible for many previous outbreaks might provide a basis for tackling the Bundibugyo species, she added. “We’ll see how far and how fast we can get,” Lurie said, adding that Cepi had done preliminary work recently on a possible jab for the rat-borne hantavirus responsible for a recent fatal outbreak on a cruise ship. “Both with hantavirus and now with Ebola, [we] are getting some live-fire drills.” Source: Michael Peel in the Financial Times Dad-chat is coming for dad-books. (By Pamela Paul and Jeffrey A. Trachtenberg in the WSJ) They were the go-to gifts for Father’s Day: a book about some little-known chapter of World War II, the sweeping narrative of a shipwreck, perhaps the latest presidential biography. These days, dad books are a dying breed. Nonfiction book sales have been in decline for the past four years, and are now the most challenged segment of the print book market. Publishers say certain types of books still fare well—including celebrity memoirs and religious titles. But in recent years, print sales in such categories as biography, current affairs and business and economics—what publishers refer to as “serious nonfiction” and which tend to resonate especially with men—have fallen considerably. Sales of nonfiction print titles were down nearly 8% through May 9 this year, and sales of books about politics and current affairs were down 19%, according to book tracker Circana BookScan. Publishing has long been subject to cyclical changes, with trends in format and genre taking over bookshelves in grand sweeps. (Remember the adult coloring-book craze? Or the stratospheric rise of romantasy?) But many in publishing believe the decline in serious nonfiction is more existential. “The trend couldn’t be clearer,” said Jonathan Karp, the former chief executive of Simon & Schuster and publisher of the new Simon Six imprint. “This is a sea change and people should wake up and realize we’re living in a new world.” One culprit for the shift: a new media diet for fans of more serious nonfiction. … Sixty-two percent of men and 54% of women consumed a podcast in the prior month, according to a recent survey by Edison Research at SSRS, up from 46% and 39%, respectively, in 2023. “When we have internal meetings to talk about this problem, it always comes around to podcasts,” said Jonathan Burnham, president and publisher of the Harper Group at HarperCollins Publishers. “The man who wants to read American history is now tuning into one of the many good podcasts about history that lends the quiet attention to a serious subject he’s looking for. It makes the idea of sitting down with a 700-page Ron Chernow book less appealing. You’ve scratched that itch.” Source: Wall Street Journal Remarkable report by Novara from the nationalist rally in London in mid May. Anna Airy, Leopard Moth and Plums, 1915 If you’ve scrolled this far, you know you want to click: Subscribe
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