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Microsoft is testing OpenClaw-like AI bots for 365 Copilot
The Verge is about technology and how it makes us feel. Founded in 2011, we offer our audience everything from breaking news to reviews to award-winning features and investigations, on our site, in video, and in podcasts.
Suspect allegedly steals 26 pounds of honey from Weld County business
The Weld County Sheriff’s Office is looking for a thief who allegedly stole 26 pounds of honey from a business over the weekend.
Windows 11 is finally removing the 32GB FAT32 capacity limit
Windows 11 Insider builds now let you format drives up to 2TB in FAT32 via Command Prompt, ending a decades-old arbitrary limit.
Pragmata is just OK, but it could’ve been great
A handful of new ideas and plenty of familiar ones.
'We are outraged': Pueblo business issues statement after 2 hurt in shooting
A Pueblo business is sharing details about a shooting that took place Sunday night that reportedly injured two people.
Huawei kicks off the wide foldable trend with Pura X Max ahead of iPhone, more
Huawei has shown off its next foldable, the Pura X Max, which has a super wide form factor we’re expecting...
Eric Swalwell’s downfall, explained
The accusations that forced out the frontrunner in California’s governor race — and could push him from Congress next.
The next MacBook Neo already sounds like a big upgrade for one reason
Last week a new report on the MacBook Neo’s success contained details on Apple’s plan for the next-gen Neo, which could be a big upgrade.
Construction done on Samuel Oschin Air & Space Center, to open soon
Construction on the California Science Center's new Samuel Oschin Air & Space Center, home to the Endeavour shuttle, is complete.
Construction done on Samuel Oschin Air & Space Center, to open soon
Construction on the California Science Center's new Samuel Oschin Air & Space Center, home to the Endeavour shuttle, is complete.
Can Puck reinvent the news business for the influencer age?
CEO Sarah Personette’s risky bet on journalists as influencers
How to help someone experiencing a mental health crisis
If you know someone is in a mental health crisis, experts say the best thing to do is to spark a conversation and connect them to resources and professional help.
Create a multicolor MacBook Neo with Apple parts for just $39
The MacBook Neo is already available in a fun choice of colors, but some people like to go further by...
Trendforce says hi-tech glue key to an invisible crease in the iPhone Ultra
It’s believed that Apple has waited many years to launch the first folding iPhone in large part because the company...
Belton 'Business Park' proposal draws neighbor pushback on warehouse development
Communities in Cass County, Missouri are changing each week, especially in Belton with new development projects popping up.
Leaker adds support for red iPhone 18 color rumor, in a slightly weird way
Bloomberg reported back in February that Apple was considering a new deep red color option for the iPhone 18 Pro,...
Did Neuralink make the wrong bet?
The field of brain-computer interfaces is moving away from mind-controlled computer cursors to restoring speech.
After falling during hurdles, Beckham Borquez shall rise again
Sherman Oaks Notre Dame hurdler Beckham Borquez fell while competing in hurdles at the Arcadia Invitational, but he is planning an immediate comeback.
This week in PC games: sci-fi shooter Pragmata, 2.5D platformer Replaced, and the most wishlisted game on Steam compete with illuminated manuscripts
All the biggest and most interesting PC games out this week, inlcuding pirate sandbox Windrose, sci-fi adventure Pragmata, and 2.5D platformer Replaced.
OpenAI is pivoting to…socialism?
The AI company just released a set of oddly left-wing — and wildly hypocritical — policy ideas.
9 questions radiology practices should ask when pursuing ‘disruptive innovation’
CHAMPIONSGATE, Fla. Kaihan Krippendorff, MBA, spoke on April 12 during the opening keynote of the Radiology Business Management Association’s annual meeting.
Microsoft’s new Xbox Gamepad Cursor adds a virtual mouse to handhelds
This new Xbox mode feature is ideal for apps that aren’t designed for a controller.
Coachella 2026: The 21 best moments from the fest's 25th-anniversary weekend
From Justin Bieber and his laptop to the high-production headlining sets from Sabrina Carpenter and Karol G and the best of everything in between at Coachella.
Everything to know about David Geffen Galleries as a new LACMA emerges
The divisive new building opens to members April 19 and widely May 4. Learn more about its architecture, must-see art, things to do and $724 million price tag.
How streaming platforms reignited the YA boom: TSITP to Heated Rivalry
Diverse storylines, coupled with the global reach of streaming platforms, have reignited an explosion of YA adaptations, and it's a race that isn’t slowing down.
New data suggests Trump’s assault on democracy may be stalling out
Three new reports give some surprising reasons for optimism.
Can red light therapy really deliver a beauty and health glow up? Here's the science
Wellness influencers tout the therapy's power for everything from rejuvenating skin and hair to boosting longevity. Devices sold for at-home use abound. We look at the evidence behind the hype.
Can red light therapy really deliver a beauty and health glow up? Here's the science
Wellness influencers tout the therapy's power for everything from rejuvenating skin and hair to boosting longevity. Devices sold for at-home use abound. We look at the evidence behind the hype.
Can red light therapy really deliver a beauty and health glow up? Here's the science
Wellness influencers tout the therapy's power for everything from rejuvenating skin and hair to boosting longevity. Devices sold for at-home use abound. We look at the evidence behind the hype.
Business Travel Market Expected to Reach USD 2,095.4 billion by 2031, at a CAGR of 9.5%: Allied Market Research
Allied Market Research published a report, titled, "business travel Market by INDUSTRY (Government, Corporate), by SERVICE (Transportation, Food and Lodging, Recreation), by TRAVELER (Group, Solo): Global Opportunity Analysis and Industry Forecast, 2021-2031". According to the report the global business travel market, valued at USD 689.7 billion in 2021, is projected to reach USD 2,095.4 billion by 2031, expanding at a CAGR of 9.5% over the forecast period — more than tripling in size within a d
Red Wings Recall Brandsegg-Nygard For Season-Ending Road Trip
The post Red Wings Recall Brandsegg-Nygard For Season-Ending Road Trip appeared first on Detroit Hockey Now. In what can only be described as a puzzling decision, now that it’s too late to help, the Detroit Red […] The post Red Wings Recall Brandsegg-Nygard For Season-Ending Road Trip appeared first on Detroit Hockey Now.
Election loss for Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán has ripple effects for Trump, US conservatives
The big election over the weekend was in a small European country nearly half a world away from Washington, but the defeat of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has significant reverberations in the United States
Election loss for Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán has ripple effects for Trump, US conservatives
The big election over the weekend was in a small European country nearly half a world away from Washington, but the defeat of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has significant reverberations in the United States.
Santee business owner arrested for allegedly threatening deputies
A Santee business owner was arrested this weekend after allegedly threatening to shoot sheriff's deputies who had responded to reports of gunshots, officials said.
Black Maternal Health Week: The impact of racism and how patients can advocate for themselves
It’s Black Maternal Health Week. Storm Team4’s Jessica Faith spoke with Dr. Tamika Auguste about the impact of implicit bias and structural racism on outcomes for Black mothers and how patients can advocate for themselves.
I rode in the Goodyear blimp over Coachella
The Times’ Mikael Wood got an invite to float over Coachella. Hey, why not?
No Doubt guitarist Tom Dumont reveals early-onset Parkinson's disease diagnosis
No Doubt guitarist Tom Dumont reveals that he's been diagnosed with Parkinson's, one month before the band is set to reunite for their Las Vegas residency at the Sphere.
Porsche Patents Racing Stripes That Appear When You Switch Into Sport Mode
Using an electrical current to change the outward appearance of certain body panels, this Porsche tech could make racing stripes appear on command.
Santee business owner arrested for allegedly threatening deputies
A Santee business owner was arrested this weekend after allegedly threatening to shoot sheriff's deputies who had responded to reports of gunshots, officials said.
'American Pie' star Shannon Elizabeth recalls dancing for Jason Biggs in 'difficult' audition
Shannon Elizabeth says the 'American Pie' Barenaked Ladies scene was flipped for her audition — meaning she hd to dance for Jason Biggs: 'I was really scared.'
Woman, 26, Had Excessive Itching but Was Told 'It's Just One of Those Things.' She Then Self-Diagnosed Her Cancer (Exclusive)
A young woman suffered from excessive itching and was dismissed by multiple doctors, before she eventually self-diagnosed herself with cancer. Sumbul Ari recalls her health journey in an exclusive interview with PEOPLE.
Coachella 2026: The story of the festival's Ferris wheel, La Grande XL
You've seen Coachella's Ferris wheel throughout your social media feeds. We talked to the operators about what it takes to put together La Grande XL.
The transformative power of sports with Telemundo and FC Dallas
Players aged 5 – 12 took part in soccer clinics w/ FC Dallas coaches, giveaways & more!
Full transcript of "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan," April 12, 2026
The Los Angeles Times' top 25 high school baseball rankings
A look at the top 25 high school baseball teams in the Southland after the eighth week of the season.
Weekly Briefing: Israel is losing its grip on U.S. politics
Support for Israel is collapsing in U.S. politics. The Iran war has fractured the MAGA base, military aid has become a Democratic litmus test, and AIPAC is losing primaries.
News Analysis: Trump's Strait of Hormuz blockade risks clash with China
It is a high-stakes moment ahead of a closely watched summit between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing next month.
Phillies rookie Andrew Painter scratched from Sunday afternoon's start
Phillies rookie right-hander Andrew Painter was scratched from his scheduled start on Sunday due to a migraine, the team announced.
Rockstar Games says hack will have ‘no impact’
Player data isn’t suspected to be compromised.
Coachella 2026 YouTube livestream: How to watch Karol G on Sunday
How to watch Coachella 2026 Day 3 YouTube livestream: Karol G, BigBang, Laufey, Little Simz, Kaskade, Young Thug, FKA Twigs, Subtronics and more.
Science 4 Everyone: Why aren't your plants growing back after the winter?
Are your plants not growing after winter? You aren't alone. Storm Team4 meteorologist Ryan Miller explains why winter conditions affect your plants.
A $1 million Picasso is due to be sold for just $116
For the price of a dinner in Paris, somebody will soon walk away with a Picasso valued at more than $1 million.
Black Maternal Health Week highlights disparities, solutions at Hampton Roads conference
Held as part of the national awareness week from April 11 to 17, the conference brought together doctors, nurses, social workers and midwife advocates to address inequities in maternal health care and outcomes.
You can grab a refurbished 2021 Kindle Paperwhite starting at just $49.99
How pristine you want it is up to you.
New research turns everything we thought we knew about yo-yo dieting on its head
The Hisense UR9 is a great first shot against OLED’s bow
The first affordable RGB LED TV still doesn’t outmatch OLED.
Column: Bye, bye Eric. Swalwell needs to go
Swalwell needs to drop out of the governor's race and resign from Congress.
Analysis: Trump says he always wins, and the Iran war is the latest example
In an analysis of how Donald Trump treats almost every setback as a win and repeats it until many people doubt the loss, Associated Press writer Will Weissert cites the war with Iran as one of the latest examples.
The real space science behind 'Project Hail Mary'
The science fiction blockbuster wowed audiences with its depiction of space travel and more. Here's what NASA staff and other scientists say about the basis for the amazing events of the film.
Yankees news: Boone angry with ABS failures
Yanks worst in baseball at challenges; bottom of lineup a Problem; farewell to Winquest; RIP to an old-timer.
Athletics finding reasons to celebrate while Mets looking for answers
The Athletics went viral with a new home run celebration Saturday as they locked up a winning road trip to New York.
Reconnecting with friends is more important than politics
The original text on the group thread read "Good morning fellas." The originator aspired to gather a number of us who were, and remain, good friends from high school for a ski trip. We'd be based out of his cabin on an alpine lake in Colorado.
Home rule has protected Colorado cities for more than 125 years
Colorado is currently gripped by a political struggle. It’s one between the governor and state legislature in Denver on one side and populous “home rule” city governments, mainly on the Front Range — such as Colorado Springs. The state legislature in the past few years has been passing bills that applied to city government policies, […]
Deion Sanders says he's in good health during Colorado's spring game
A year after being diagnosed with bladder cancer, Deion Sanders insists he's in good health.
'It was a cry for help' | Family mourns father killed in police shooting, says he struggled with mental health
The man's family asked that his identity, as well as their own, not be disclosed because they have not yet notified all of his extended family about what happened.
This accessory lets you play Switch 2 games on your iPad or iMac display at 4K resolution
Apple has included excellent display panels on iMacs for years, but for the longest time, there hasn’t really been a...
Plymouth Maple Fest sheds light on the maple syrup business
People from across the Plymouth community gathered on Saturday for the annual Maple Fest, which celebrates hand-made maple syrup across Sheboygan County.
Football fans are being taken for a ride by the NFL — the DOJ could stop that
Nobody should be surprised that the Justice Department has opened an investigation into the NFL’s antitrust exemption — but it’s far from clear how this game will end.
Costco Just Introduced the Kirkland Product Fans Have 'Been Waiting For,' and It's Selling Out Fast
Costco’s Kirkland Signature Ultra-Filtered Reduced Fat Milk, which is remarkably similar to Fairlife 2% Lactose-Free Milk, boasts 13 grams of protein per serving and half of the sugar compared to regular milk, at a fraction of the cost.
Black doulas work to bridge health disparities for Black mothers
Saturday marked Global Black Doula Day and the start of Black Maternal Health Week. Pregnant and postpartum parents gathered on the West Side for a community baby shower.
'DWTS' alum Hayley Erbert says her heart is 'breaking into a million pieces' after having first baby with Derek Hough
'DWTS' alum Hayley Erbert says her heart is 'breaking into a million pieces' after having her first baby with Derek Hough two years after a life-threatening health scare: 'Motherhood is even more complex and contradicting than I could have ever imagined.'
Seniors: Carol Watson, 72
Owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping in LaFayette enjoys her growing business — still puts in six-, seven-day weeks By Mary Beth Roach Carol Watson, the owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping, has been in gardens since she could walk. Literally. She said she learned to walk in her grandfather’s garden, which was next door to her current home and business in LaFayette. Today, at 72, she is running the business that her mother, Claire, opened in 1981 as Watson Greenhouse. Watson worked part-time for her mom until 1990, when she joined her full time. While she may not have had any formal horticultural experience, she said she learned so much about growing and raising plants from her mom, who had an abundance of energy and talent. Now, after 35 years in the business full time, Watson has no plans to retire, although she joked that she’d like a couple of days off a week. On her seven-acre site, complete with four greenhouses, Watson said her favorite parts of the job are working with and educating her customers; helping some of her young customers build terrariums; conducting occasional class field trips; and supporting local art by decorating the shop with an eclectic mix of pottery from at least four area craftspeople. A one-time employee of the former Dey Bros. department store in Syracuse, Watson said she loves merchandising and enjoys displaying unique pieces of art on shelves and even suspending from ceilings. “We’re creative. We also had top quality plants. We got a reputation of quality plants and unusual products,” she said. It’s tending to her customers and her plants, showcasing the unusual products, and hosting special events to benefit the community that keep her motivated to work six to seven days a week. “I just love it. I love taking care of the plants. I’m one of the few people that really enjoys watering,” she said. And while she has cultivated a solid customer base over the years, she remains savvy in her marketing efforts to draw in new customers. For example, she does a gardening segment on CNY Central television; her active Facebook page has thousands of followers; and she hosts a number of unique events and classes that not only introduce her shop to potential new clients, but some benefit nonprofits as well. About 13 years ago, when the local symphony orchestra was struggling, she said she wanted to help. So, partnering with the group, she began offering concerts, called Soirees, featuring the Syracuse Orchestra’s string quartet. Following up on a suggestion from a customer whose brother is a deejay in retirement, specializing in sock hops, she hosted the greenhouse’s first sock hop. Plants got moved back toward the walls to make room for dancing; a caterer was brought in, offering diner-like food; guests came in period outfits; and proceeds went to the Food Bank of CNY. She is excited about doing it again in October. Via her website, she promotes the greenhouse as an “oasis in the snow,” offering visitors the opportunity to pick up some decorating and gift ideas while taking in the floral and citrus scents. And she also caters to her four-legged friends. Over this past winter, she said, she came up with a “brilliant idea,” although at the time she didn’t appreciate just how brilliant it would become. Feeling it too cold outside to take her dog for a walk, she opted to bring it into the greenhouse. And before long, she was inviting people to bring their dogs into the big greenhouse as well. She looks forward to extending that invitation again this upcoming winter season. For Watson and her customers, the greenhouse is always in season.
L.A. Times readers celebrate UCLA women's basketball's title win
Times readers cheer UCLA coach Cori Close and players Gabriela Jaquez, Kiki Rice, Lauren Betts, Gianne Kneepkens, Angela Dugalic and Charlisse Leger-Walker.
Crash Ends Heim’s $500K Bid at Bristol
Multi-truck incident with 70 laps left derails Triple Truck Challenge sweep
Here's why AirPods Pro 3 are more upgrade worthy than you may think
When AirPods Pro 3 initially debuted, I was a little bit hesitant about upgrading. I felt that AirPods Pro 2...
Fox News Entertainment Newsletter: Kelly Ripa’s secret signal, ‘Charlie’s Angels’ star on price of fame
The Fox News Entertainment Newsletter brings you the latest Hollywood headlines, celebrity interviews and stories from Los Angeles and beyond.
Fox News Entertainment Newsletter: Kelly Ripa's secret signal, 'Charlie's Angels' star on price of fame
The Fox News Entertainment Newsletter brings you the latest Hollywood headlines, celebrity interviews and stories from Los Angeles and beyond.
Local View: Parable of three donors illustrates money in politics
From the column: "If the candidate takes the cash, it will be commingled into one larger snowball of contributions to make larger buys with diminishing marginal returns in voters per dollar."
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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