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Victor Wembanyama gets real on Spurs' NBA Playoffs hopes
The San Antonio Spurs led by Victor Wembanyama are very excited for the start of the NBA Playoffs.
Woman, 26, Had Excessive Itching but Was Told 'It's Just One of Those Things.' She Then Self-Diagnosed Her Cancer (Exclusive)
A young woman suffered from excessive itching and was dismissed by multiple doctors, before she eventually self-diagnosed herself with cancer. Sumbul Ari recalls her health journey in an exclusive interview with PEOPLE.
McGeeney feels there's 'much more' in Armagh
Armagh manager Kieran McGeeney feels there is "much more" in his team but "I'm all for playing badly and winning" after their extra-time victory over Tyrone.
What Flutter Entertainment (FLUT)'s Board Shuffle, Buybacks and Quiet Dart Stake Mean For Shareholders
In recent days, Flutter Entertainment plc reported that long-serving independent director Alfred F. Hurley, Jr. will retire at the 2026 AGM, with Nancy Dubuc set to assume the role of Chair of the Compensation and Human Resources Committee, while the company continues executing a multi-billion-dollar share repurchase program. At the same time, billionaire investor Kenneth Dart has quietly built substantial economic exposure to Flutter through total return swaps, even as analysts question...
Podcast provides in-depth coverage of area food, restaurant scene - Talk Business & Politics
John Engleman, a former sports anchor and director with over a decade of media relations experience, started a podcast to keep tabs on the ever-evolving food and restaurant sector in...
Doctors expose ‘buffalo hump’ as potential sign of hidden health conditions
A "buffalo hump" — a fatty bulge at the base of the neck — can sometimes signal underlying medical conditions, experts say. Causes range from poor posture to hormonal disorders.
Ravens Scott Elliott praises Trey Hendrickson's 'elite' work ethic
Ravens Director of Strength & Conditioning Scott Elliott praised newly signed linebacker Trey Hendrickson's 'elite' physical makeup and work ethic.
Black Maternal Health Week highlights disparities, solutions at Hampton Roads conference
Held as part of the national awareness week from April 11 to 17, the conference brought together doctors, nurses, social workers and midwife advocates to address inequities in maternal health care and outcomes.
Close of polls nears in Hungary's most crucial election in decades
As record numbers of Hungarians head to the polls, the EU is preparing for two scenarios: continued obstruction under Orbán or a victory for Magyar that could reset relations, though Brussels remains cautious about both.
The Masters 2026 - final round LIVE! Latest updates, highlights, scores as Rory McIlroy chases major victory at Augusta National
Rory McIlroy looks to become first back-to-back winner of The Masters since Tiger Woods; coverage is live from 4.30pm on Sky Sports Golf, with Featured Groups, Featured Holes and extra coverage on Sky Sports+
Old Forge library to host two original plays
Two original plays will be performed April 16 at Old Forge Library. The free event features local actors and a debut production.
Joe Gibbs shows family's importance in Victory Lane
Joe Gibbs stresses the importance of God and family before he's happily interrupted by his grandson, race winner Ty Gibbs, in Victory Lane.
China's Chery looking to expand car production in Europe, top executives say
Chery is looking to expand car production in Europe through partnerships with other automakers allowing it to use existing factories, top executives at the Chinese carmaker said at an event in Paris.
Tencent Music Entertainment Group (NYSE:TME) Valuation Check As Options Volatility Climbs And Analyst Caution Grows
Recent trading in Tencent Music Entertainment Group (NYSE:TME) options has shown unusually high implied volatility. This points to expectations of sharp share price swings, while analyst sentiment on the stock and sector remains cautious. See our latest analysis for Tencent Music Entertainment Group. The latest share price of $9.36 sits against a 30 day share price return of 34.04% and a year to date share price return of 47.59%, while the 1 year total shareholder return of 21.48% contrasts...
3 big questions for Tennessee quarterback battle after spring practice
Josh Heupel spoke in the future tense about the Tennessee quarterback competition. He needs to see more development. Here are factors to consider.
Michigan group spotlights Black Maternal Health Week and the risks Black women face giving birth
Black women are 3 to 4 times more likely than their white counterparts to die of childbirth-related complications. The disparity is unchanged even when factoring in education and income.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting to face questions on Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg
This week, Victoria Derbyshire is stepping in for Laura Kuenssberg. Tory MP James Cartlidge and Liberal Democrats leader Ed Davey will also be on the show.
Reform’s Startup Culture Raises Risks Ahead of Local Elections
Earlier this year, as Reform UK official Shaun Wilkinson was shortlisting candidates for May’s local elections, he watched in astonishment as a superior remotely replaced one pick in the shared spreadsheet with a recent Conservative defector who he’d rejected.
Why Bill Moos is fed up with major college sports
Bill Moos, former player, coach and athletic director of some of the country’s past and present powerhouses, has seen the future of college athletics and is glad he retired to 63 acres near Spokane.
New clinic brings at-home health care to La Plata, San Juan counties
HERMOSA – The practice of a doctor traveling to a patient’s home to deliver care – as opposed to the patient traveling to a medical campus or visiting a doctor in an office – is largely bygone. Accord...
Your wishes, your voice: Ochsner doctors encourage families to plan ahead for National Healthcare Decisions Day
Every year on April 16, National Healthcare Decisions Day serves as a reminder that medical emergencies rarely arrive with warning. When they occur, the decisions surrounding treatment often must be
Childers never doubted Victory Lane return: 'Not a chance in hell'
Rodney Childers, crew chief for Zilisch and JRM's No. 1 Chevrolet, responds when asked if he ever doubted he'd make it to Victory Lane again.
Pastors Scott Bottoms, Victor Marx win spots in Colorado GOP’s gubernatorial primary at party assembly
Two pastors from Colorado Springs qualified Saturday for the Republican gubernatorial primary ballot at the Colorado GOP’s state assembly in Pueblo in a party meeting that dragged late into the night. State Rep. Scott Bottoms, who is known as one of the legislature’s most conservative members, won top line on the June ballot, while missionary […]
Photo highlights from the Coachella Music and Arts Festival
INDIO, Calif. (AP) — The Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival, in its 25th edition, returns to the Empire Polo Club.
Iowa women's basketball lands All-SEC transfer portal guard
Iowa women's basketball picked up its first impact player out of the transfer portal, landing first-team All-SEC guard Dani Carnegie.
Denver Pioneers win 3rd NCAA men's hockey title in 5 years
The Denver Pioneers of the National Collegiate Hockey Conference registered a 2-1 victory over the Wisconsin Badgers to complete the Frozen Four at T-Mobile Arena on Saturday in Las Vegas, the program's third national championship in five years.
Costco Just Introduced the Kirkland Product Fans Have 'Been Waiting For,' and It's Selling Out Fast
Costco’s Kirkland Signature Ultra-Filtered Reduced Fat Milk, which is remarkably similar to Fairlife 2% Lactose-Free Milk, boasts 13 grams of protein per serving and half of the sugar compared to regular milk, at a fraction of the cost.
Nearly 100 Colorado businesses have left or scaled back operations since 2019, report finds
A new report from the Colorado Chamber Foundation suggests the state’s weakening competitiveness is driving businesses out of state. Companies are blaming factors like increasing regulations and cost of living for why they’re choosing to...
ON THE JOB: “What is the Best Business Advice You’ve Ever Received?
Interviews by Deborah Jeanne Sergeant Sound advice can contribute to your success. We recently asked area business leaders, what was their best advice they’d ever received. Here’s what they said: “The best advice I ever received was from my then –boss, Gerry Church, Fulton plant manager at Miller Brewing Co. He told me that whenever I wanted to discuss a business problem or issue with him, I should also be prepared to offer possible solutions. It’s the difference between being proactive or reactive. It’s also the difference between being a leader or follower. That has served me well in any business relationship I have had since then.” — Stephen Chirello, Owner, Steve Chirello Advertising, Fulton “Someone will always do it for less; they will also take the most effort to service or satisfy and leave you for the next lower price.” — John M. Henry, Owner, Speedway Press, Mitchell Printing, Phoenix Press, Oswego “I’m going to answer this question by turning it around and giving my own advice that is, ‘Always treat every customer as if they were your only customer!’ We are celebrating our 50th anniversary in business this year. We started our business on March 25, 1976. My advice works.”” — Nick Chervinsky, President, Brewerton Pharmacy, Brewerton “’You need to toot your own horn, my grandfather, Howard D. Dice, told me.” — Beth Ann Dice, Women’s active aging and cancer recovery coach, Mission Movement Wellness Studio & Breast Cancer Recovery Studio, Fulton “In the micro enterprise class, they taught, ‘Get a good lawyer, accountant and bank.’ That was over 30 years ago and I still have those three today. I chose good people I could grow with.” — Tony Pauldine, Owner, Anthony M. Pauldine General Contractors Inc., Oswego “From my grandfather; ‘Listen to everyone! You never know where you will get the solution you need.’” — Kevin Dean, Executive director, Oswego County Opportunities, Fulton “‘Preparation is the mother of success.’ My dad always drilled that into my head growing up, and it has helped me avoid a lot of snags in both my personal and professional life. Thanks, Dad!” — Bekkah Frisch, Owner and president, iHeart Holdings, Inc., Fulton “If you don’t take a risk and try, you will never know.” — Justin Taber, Owner, Torbitt’s Service Center, Oswego “Be ready to take a loss.” — Cody Seymour, Manager, Damiano’s Eatery, Mexico “I’ve received so much good business advice over the years. When people are giving you advice, always be curious rather than judgmental. Follow your gut. Doing the right thing is never the wrong thing.” — Dana Decker, Principal owner/broker, Berkshire Hathaway Home Services, Oswego ’Do it and figure it out later.’ It hasn’t failed me yet. Too many people take time to think about doing this and this and this and then the opportunity is over with. If it’s somewhat reasonable — if it’s not something outrageous — do it and figure it out later.” — Jeremy Allen, Licensed real estate salesperson, Acropolis Realty Group, Syracuse “’Try to meet the needs of the customer. Treat them like you’d like to be treated.’ It’s like the Golden Rule says.” — Douglas Dickson, Physician and associate at CNY Foot Surgery and Podiatry Care, East Syracuse “The best piece of business advice I’ve ever received applies to life in general: always be honest. Never overstate your capabilities and always be willing to ask questions. The more specific you can be in any given topic will always lead to a better outcome.” — Tom Fernandez, President, Woodbine Hospitality, Syracuse “As a business owner, the advice would be ‘Don’t overextend yourself. Especially in agriculture, expect issues to come up.’ If something is going right, it’s not true agriculture. This last season, we scaled very hard to field another crew. We got more drones, crew and generators based on projections. This last season hit the ag community hard with a very wet spring. We did 15,000 to 20,000 acres for fungicide and the same for cover crop seeding in 2024. We scaled to 25,000 to 30,000 for 2025. We ended up doing 2,000 for fungicide and 3,000 for cover crop seeding. That’s why that advice was good.” — Rick Jordan, Operations manager, CNY Drove Services, Clinton “’Keep your head down, mind your own business and do the best for your clients that you can do.’ It has a lot to do with my success in working for Galloway Century 21.” — Ed Fayette, New York state licensed real estate agent, Century 21 Galloway, Oswego “’Expand in all ways, always.’ It just keeps you going and keeps you growing.” — Stephen Baier, Licensed real estate person, The Real Estate Agency & Bouck Commercial, Auburn “The best advice is, ‘Your biggest asset you won’t see on the books because it comes from your employees.’” — David Flickinger, Owner, Edible Arrangements, Syracuse “Don’t take things personally when you’re working with the public.” — Leeann Desimone, Manager, Annie’s Hallmark Shop, Auburn “‘Follow up.’ The customer knows that you care about what you are doing and that their opinion counts. Sometimes they might be on the fence about whether they want to use your company. If they’re asking your opinion on things, they feel you are concerned about what you’re doing. They like to be kept in the loop if they’re spending money with you.” — Dorothy Casper, Saslesperson, SweetWoods Memorials, Phoenix “The best business advice I received is ‘Never be the smartest person in the room. Surround yourself with people who are smarter than you.’ That’s how you learn.” — Debbie Bilello, Owner, Virtual Office Solutions, Central Square “’You need to grow your business but you can’t grow too big too fast.’ That’s what we’ve done at Pinnacle Maintenance. We’ve tried to grow but not too fast. Along those same lines, there’s another good piece of advice, ‘Don’t take on more than you can handle because it only leads to a bad name for your business and a bad experience for your customers.’ It goes along the same lines as growing your business slowly and carefully.” — David Wines, Owner, Pinnacle Maintenance, Central Square “Always be on time and do what you say you are going to do.’ I’ve done very well following that advice. Most of my work is referral and I don’t really do any advertising so I have a pretty good customer base. It’s mostly word-of-mouth from satisfied customers.” — Robert J. Fleming, Owner, Bob Fleming Windows & Doors, Brewerton “’Concentrate on your finances, always pay your taxes, and form a team you can depend on. Try to help the community you’re in as much as you can.’ We do all of these all the time here. We give and give and give to the community and the community gives back to us always.” — Susan Bonnet, Co-owner, Bonnet Sales and Service, Central Square “Keep smiling. It brings a positive attitude to the workplace.” — Karin Lindsley, Vice president, DTS Truck Service, Syracuse “‘Customer service above all.’ Following this advice has served us very well.’ — Guy Fox, Owner, Fox’s Discount Parts, West Monroe “The best thing to do is to make sure you’re taking in more money than you’re spending. I wish I could say I’m a good businessman but I have been in business since 1981. I’m not a bean counter but work well with my hands and its’s served me well all these years and I am still in business.” — Matt McGill, Owner, Matt McGill Collision, Brewerton
Chamber of Commerce Presents Achievement Awards
Event also marked 110th of the chamber’s presence in Oswego [caption id=attachment_10469 align=alignright width=450] Abby Waever and Keara Patterson (in the middle) receive the Community Leadership & Legacy Award, presented to The Alberts Group.[/caption] The Greater Oswego-Fulton Chamber of Commerce (GOFCC) on March 4 hosted its 2026 Annual Meeting, presented by Constellation, at the Lake Ontario Event and Conference Center in Oswego. The event’s theme, Rooted in Community. The meeting celebrated the GOFCC’s 110th anniversary in the Oswego community and 10th anniversary of integration with CenterState CEO. The chamber also unveiled a new logo. “I am proud to say the GOFCC has been a force for business success, growth and opportunity, supporting organizations of every size, connecting neighbors and entrepreneurs and ensuring that every voice in Oswego County is heard,” said GOFCC Executive Director Sara Broadwell. The event featured keynote remarks from Novelis’s Kevin Schutt, vice president, manufacturing and production support at Novelis North America. [caption id=attachment_10454 align=alignright width=450] Maria Hudson of Constellation, holding the award, receives the Nancy L. Premo Woman of Distinction Award.[/caption] The GOFCC recognized the following organizations and individuals with achievement awards: • Oswego County Impact & Excellence Award, presented to Oswego County Office of Mobility Management. This award Honors a small business or nonprofit organization that demonstrates outstanding achievement through innovation, growth and measurable positive impact on Oswego County’s economy or quality of life. • Community Leadership & Legacy Award, presented to The Alberts Group. This award recognizes an individual, business or organization whose long-term leadership, investment or philanthropy has significantly advanced the vitality, resilience and future of Oswego County’s communities. • Nancy L. Premo Woman of Distinction Award, presented to Maria Hudson of Constellation. This award honors a woman in business who has made a meaningful impact on her community, inspired others through her leadership, and exemplified the values of service, integrity and empowerment. This award is presented in tribute to the late Nancy Premo, CenterState CEO’s former vice president of Human Resources.
Seniors: Carol Watson, 72
Owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping in LaFayette enjoys her growing business — still puts in six-, seven-day weeks By Mary Beth Roach Carol Watson, the owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping, has been in gardens since she could walk. Literally. She said she learned to walk in her grandfather’s garden, which was next door to her current home and business in LaFayette. Today, at 72, she is running the business that her mother, Claire, opened in 1981 as Watson Greenhouse. Watson worked part-time for her mom until 1990, when she joined her full time. While she may not have had any formal horticultural experience, she said she learned so much about growing and raising plants from her mom, who had an abundance of energy and talent. Now, after 35 years in the business full time, Watson has no plans to retire, although she joked that she’d like a couple of days off a week. On her seven-acre site, complete with four greenhouses, Watson said her favorite parts of the job are working with and educating her customers; helping some of her young customers build terrariums; conducting occasional class field trips; and supporting local art by decorating the shop with an eclectic mix of pottery from at least four area craftspeople. A one-time employee of the former Dey Bros. department store in Syracuse, Watson said she loves merchandising and enjoys displaying unique pieces of art on shelves and even suspending from ceilings. “We’re creative. We also had top quality plants. We got a reputation of quality plants and unusual products,” she said. It’s tending to her customers and her plants, showcasing the unusual products, and hosting special events to benefit the community that keep her motivated to work six to seven days a week. “I just love it. I love taking care of the plants. I’m one of the few people that really enjoys watering,” she said. And while she has cultivated a solid customer base over the years, she remains savvy in her marketing efforts to draw in new customers. For example, she does a gardening segment on CNY Central television; her active Facebook page has thousands of followers; and she hosts a number of unique events and classes that not only introduce her shop to potential new clients, but some benefit nonprofits as well. About 13 years ago, when the local symphony orchestra was struggling, she said she wanted to help. So, partnering with the group, she began offering concerts, called Soirees, featuring the Syracuse Orchestra’s string quartet. Following up on a suggestion from a customer whose brother is a deejay in retirement, specializing in sock hops, she hosted the greenhouse’s first sock hop. Plants got moved back toward the walls to make room for dancing; a caterer was brought in, offering diner-like food; guests came in period outfits; and proceeds went to the Food Bank of CNY. She is excited about doing it again in October. Via her website, she promotes the greenhouse as an “oasis in the snow,” offering visitors the opportunity to pick up some decorating and gift ideas while taking in the floral and citrus scents. And she also caters to her four-legged friends. Over this past winter, she said, she came up with a “brilliant idea,” although at the time she didn’t appreciate just how brilliant it would become. Feeling it too cold outside to take her dog for a walk, she opted to bring it into the greenhouse. And before long, she was inviting people to bring their dogs into the big greenhouse as well. She looks forward to extending that invitation again this upcoming winter season. For Watson and her customers, the greenhouse is always in season.
Defiant Swalwell still sees a path to victory in governor's race
So far, Swalwell is casting the allegations against him as a political conspiracy to take down the frontrunner for the governor’s office.
John Nolan, ‘Batman’ actor and uncle to Christopher Nolan, dead at 87: reports
Actor John Nolan, widely known for his roles in “Batman” and “Person of Interest,” died at age 87 on Saturday, according to multiple media reports. Local British outlet Stratford-Upon-Avon Herald f…
DrPH Student Spotlight: Victoria Adewumi | Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Victoria shares her experience in the DrPH Program and her work advancing community health worker leadership and policy.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Women's Six Nations 2026: England 33-12 Ireland - hosts open title defence with victory
England open title defence with comfortable win over Ireland in front of a record Women's Six Nations crowd of 77,120 at Allianz Stadium.
Borderlands 4 Nintendo Switch 2 copies apparently spotted in the wild despite the game being put on hold indefinitely
There’s been an interesting development with the Nintendo Switch 2 version of Borderlands 4 as the game has now been spotted at retail. You may originally recall that the port was planned for release last October. However, it was delayed just a few days before release. Then in February, we heard that development had been paused. That brings us to...
Memorial Hermann and BCBSTX reach a new deal, restoring in-network coverage, hospital says
The Houston-based health system and the insurance giant had previously let an April 1 deadline pass without a new agreement, meaning many patients across the region were forced to pay higher medical costs or find new doctors.
Orange County restaurants shut down by health inspectors (April 2-9)
There were 12 restaurants and food establishments ordered closed by Orange County inspectors from April 2 to April 9.
“As of January 2026… Drew Murray is now working on the StarCraft shooter” — this report could be the clearest sign yet that the project is moving forward
Fresh insight into Blizzard’s StarCraft shooter suggests experienced talent is being assembled, with Drew Murray of the now closed The Initiative joining as associative design director.
Early weight gain is linked to lifelong health consequences
Putting on weight earlier in life may be more dangerous than previously thought. Researchers found that early adulthood obesity significantly raises the risk of premature death, especially from major diseases like heart disease and diabetes. The longer the body carries excess weight, the greater the damage appears to be. Interestingly, cancer risk in women didn’t follow this pattern, suggesting other biological factors are at play.
Early weight gain is linked to lifelong health consequences
Putting on weight earlier in life may be more dangerous than previously thought. Researchers found that early adulthood obesity significantly raises the risk of premature death, especially from major diseases like heart disease and diabetes. The longer the body carries excess weight, the greater the damage appears to be. Interestingly, cancer risk in women didn’t follow this pattern, suggesting other biological factors are at play.
See 16 Actors You Forgot Guest Starred on 'Twin Peaks'
'Twin Peaks' premiered on ABC on April 8, 1990. From David Duchovny to Amanda Seyfried, find out the actors who appeared on the genre-bending TV series before (or even after!) they were famous.
These women had their breasts removed to thwart cancer. Then came the pain.
Many women are afflicted by post-mastectomy pain syndrome, which spans from uncomfortable to disabling and can last years. It’s inconsistently diagnosed and treated, leaving some women in agony as they hunt for relief and struggle to find doctors who take their pain seriously.
Arts & Entertainment Calendar
Events coming up in the Greenville area offer music, arts, theater and family fun. Here is a sampling.
Bielema, Gies, associate athletic director share insights on world of college sports
Alumnus and donor Larry Gies, who first “fell in love” with UI by attending a football game with his father, said that athletics often serve as a university’s “front door”
Victory essential for Wales in Six Nations against Scotland today
Head coach Sean Lynn is under pressure to deliver a win in his second campaign in charge of Wales.
Victor Wembanyama Drops Historic 40-Point Performance Against Mavericks
Spurs star Victor Wembanyama scored 40 in 26 minutes in a dominant win over the Mavericks.
Victor Wembanyama eligible for MVP, other awards after playing in 65th game this season despite rib injury
Victor Wembanyama is eligible to win the MVP award, but will he actually do it?
Jelly Roll’s Blood Test Results Are a Wake-Up Call: What Blood Tests Should Your Family Actually Be...
Jelly Roll’s blood panel results stunned his doctors. If you manage your family’s health, his story is worth reading.
DGPT Returns to CBS Sports with Big Easy Open Special Airing April 11 - Disc Golf Pro Tour
Tune in at 5:30 PM ET to relive all of the excitement from the MVP Big Easy Open presented by Flight Factory
Energy drink boom raises heart health concerns, doctors warn
FORT WAYNE, Ind. (WANE) — As energy drinks continue to grow in popularity, health experts in Fort Wayne are raising concerns about what frequent consumption could be doing to the heart. Many of the…
Science students find mentorship and pathways to career success
Batool Abdulruhman and Alyssa Rivera both grew up in rural Valley communities where doctors are scarce and medical care is difficult to access. Now they are on a path to become doctors practicing in the Valley because of the support and mentorship they received through the Center for Access to Science for All (CASA) in […]
Efforts to establish social media guardrails for children stall in Congress
Experts say one factor is lobbying by Big Tech, which spent over $100 million last year
Acting CDC director delayed release of study showing benefit of Covid vaccines
An HHS spokesperson said Dr. Jay Bhattacharya had concerns about the paper’s methodology. Some current or former CDC employees worry about political interference.
Science of seismic proportions
Arizona’s deserts might not be situated on a tectonic plate boundary where geographical activity can cause earthquakes, but that doesn’t make the state immune from the disturbance of tremors.It has been 139 years since Arizona’s strongest recorded earthquake on the Pitaycachi fault struck in 1887. The 7.5 magnitude event, known as the Sonoran Earthquake, took place near the southeastern Arizona-Mexico border.
Update on Proposed Dissolution of SBE Directorate at the National Science Foundation (NSF) -
On Friday, April 3, 2026, it was reported that interim leadership at the National Science Foundation announced during an internal all-staff meeting that they would preemptively start making moves to dissolve the SBE Directorate in [...]
Andrej Karpathy says there's a 'growing gap' among AI users
Ex-Tesla AI director and OpenAI founding member Andrej Karpathy wrote that AI power users and skeptics are "speaking past each other."
Health Care Roundup: Market Talk
Find insight on AstraZeneca, Novartis, Roche Holding and more in the latest Market Talks covering the Health Care sector.
Gov. Laura Kelly signs bills altering defendant competency process, child health care program
Gov. Laura Kelly announces the signing of more than 50 bills approved by the 2026 Kansas Legislature.
FBI: Health care was top target for ransomware, other cyberthreats in 2025
Health care and public health was the top sector targeted for cyberthreats in 2025, according to the FBI’s latest annual report on internet crimes. There were 460 ransomware attacks and 182 data breaches, totaling 642 cyber events. Financial services was the next highest sector at 447 total events.
Photos: Makeup tests, shoulder cuff health and student presentations
Darryna Guy-Williams, a bioengineering and bio chemistry major, sprays Jenna King, class TA and postdoctorate candidate in chemistry and chemical biology, with a facial hydrating mist in Leila Deravi’s cosmetic chemistry class.
NHL Playoffs: What’s next for the Penguins?
The Pittsburgh Penguins completed a double whammy yesterday, not only did they clinch a playoff spot for the 2026 Stanley Cup playoffs as a result of their victory, they also clinched second place in the Metropolitan Division courtesy of the Philadelphia Flyers loss. That makes for the best of days. What’s next for the Pens? […]
WHO Says Iran Health System Is in Crisis, Commits $800,000 Emergency Funds
The World Health Organization released $800,000 from its emergency contingency fund to support the health response in Iran. Hanan Balkhy, a regional director for the United Nations agency, welcomed the current cease-fire but warned the health crisis in Iran was ongoing. “Humanitarian and health nee
Gravitational waves may be hidden in the light atoms emit
Scientists have proposed a surprising new way to detect gravitational waves—by observing how they change the light emitted by atoms. These waves can subtly shift photon frequencies in different directions, leaving behind a detectable signature. The effect doesn’t change how much light atoms emit, which is why it’s gone unnoticed until now. If confirmed, this approach could lead to ultra-compact detectors using cold-atom systems.
Scientists say we’ve been treating Alzheimer’s all wrong
Alzheimer’s isn’t just one problem—it’s a tangled mix of biology, aging, and overall health. That’s why drugs targeting a single factor have fallen short, even as new treatments show modest benefits. Scientists are now pushing toward multi-pronged strategies, from gene editing to brain-cell rejuvenation and gut health interventions. The goal: stop treating Alzheimer’s as one disease and start tackling it as a complex system.
Bitter medicine: How California’s hospital bills end up depressing your take-home pay
Hospitals are suing a state agency that limits their cost increases. Their bills inflate health insurance premiums, leaving employers with less money for wages.
Menopause products are having a hot minute. But doctors urge women to be wary of the marketing surge
Women suffering through the hot flashes, night sweats, mood changes and sleep problems that can come with menopause — all while looking in the mirror and noticing signs of aging — are being bombarded with products.
Q4 Rundown: Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ:CZR) Vs Other Consumer Discretionary
Quarterly earnings results are a good time to check in on a company’s progress, especially compared to its peers in the same sector. Today we are looking at Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ:CZR) and the best and worst performers in the consumer discretionary - casino operator industry.
Peru's Dysfunctional Politics Are an Economic Time Bomb
Peru has gone through three presidents since October, yet markets have largely yawned: Country risk has edged up only marginally, credit default swaps remain well below their five-year average and the currency has even gained against the dollar.
Meet the air traffic controller behind the PGA Championship
Jackie Endsley tapped her honorary Philadelphian standing after the PGA Championship lost its first director.
Mainz midfielder ruled out for multiple weeks
1. FSV Mainz 05 will have to manage without Jae-sung Lee in the coming weeks.After the midfielder missed Thursday’s 2–0 win over Racing Strasbourg in the Conference League, sporting director Niko ...
Meta’s New AI Asked for My Raw Health Data—and Gave Me Terrible Advice
Meta’s Muse Spark model offers to analyze users’ health data, including lab results. Beyond the obvious privacy risks, it’s not a capable stand-in for a real doctor.
Eddie Howe reaffirms ‘100 per cent’ commitment to Newcastle job
The head coach said he thinks he is "totally aligned" with the club's sporting director and CEO but cannot look beyond the next seven games.
Seafood restaurant, entertainment venue to open on Rose Bay
This Rose Bay restaurant is in the midst of revival, says owners Dino and Victoria Maxwell, soon reopening with fresh seafood, Putt-Putt and more.
Women's health forum in Naples offers free insights from local doctors
The annual Women's Health Forum in Naples offers free educational sessions with 25 local physicians on various health topics.
Oil prices tick up amid doubt on Iran war ceasefire; Chinese factory gate costs increase for first time in four years
Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news
Netflix's 'Thrash' is junk-food entertaining to roast, mock and enjoy
From the director of “Violent Night” (Tommy Wirkola), “Thrash” is Netflix’s first summery film of the year. In 2026, you can’t simply have a natural disaster movie or a predator
Sherrill’s plan to overhaul school mental health services draws criticism
NJ’s current system has detractors, but critics of Sherrill’s plan call it untested
Trump small business admin Kelly Loeffler talks tariffs, taxes, gas prices
Small Business Administrator Kelly Loeffler was back in Georgia to tour a factory Thursday afternoon.
Q4 Rundown: Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ:CZR) Vs Other Consumer Discretionary
Quarterly earnings results are a good time to check in on a company’s progress, especially compared to its peers in the same sector. Today we are looking at ...
Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) Stock Trades Down, Here Is Why
Shares of global online betting powerhouse Flutter Entertainment (NASDAQ:FLUT) fell 4.3% in the afternoon session after an analyst from Citizens lowered the price target for the company, citing a cautious outlook for the U.S. online gaming sector.
When and why political leaders polarise rhetoric: Evidence from Twitter/X
Standard theories of electoral competition predict that politicians should converge toward the centre as elections approach. This column challenges this prediction, using 3.4 million tweets from 367 political leaders across 21 Western democracies. Rhetorical polarisation between populist and non-populist leaders rises sharply in the two quarters before an election and reverts to average levels once it is over. Both groups adopt a more emotionally direct communication style as elections near, but they increasingly talk about different topics. The findings suggest that social media turns electoral campaigns into an engine of political polarisation.
CDC delays COVID vaccine benefits report
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reportedly delayed the publication of its report detailing the benefits of the COVID-19 vaccine at the behest of its acting director. Acting CDC…
Did WEBTOON Entertainment Inc. Insiders Breach their Fiduciary Duties to Shareholders?
/PRNewswire/ -- Halper Sadeh LLC, an investor rights law firm, is investigating whether certain officers and directors of WEBTOON Entertainment Inc. (NASDAQ:...
Fact-checking Trump and Hegseth's claims of U.S. 'victory' in the Iran war
Based on available information, the U.S. and its military partner, Israel, achieved significant battlefield wins, experts said. However, they said that calling it a "total victory" overlooks significant strategic setbacks for the U.S.
Michael Owen raises $93K in Q1, widening fundraising lead in HD 70 race
Owen’s latest report continues a steady upward trajectory in his fundraising operation.
Inaugural Entertainment Acquires Green Day Inspired Comedy, And Announces New Title, “NIMRODS”
Today, Inaugural Entertainment announces the acquisition of a new Green Day inspired comedy from Live Nation Studios, as well as a new title, NIMRODS. The film, formerly titled “New Years Rev,” was developed by writer/director Lee Kirk with global rock superstars Green Day and produced by Tim Perell for Process. …
Olivia Munn Says 'Obnoxious' Male Co-Star Wouldn't Let Her 'Save' Him On-Screen
The “Your Friends & Neighbors” star said the actor quickly grew “combative with the director” over the scene.
Can AI dream of electric sheep? The team behind the award-winning 1000XResist on their next game
We talked with Remy Siu, the Creative Director behind the award-winning 1000XResist, about their upcoming AI-centric game.
Victor Wembanyama's extreme ceiling: How end-of-season awards voting could be an indicator of historic success
Study finds acne scarring linked to mental health impacts; Doctors urge early treatment
Acne scars may affect more than your skin — new research shows deeper impact.
Guillermo del Toro's masterpiece Pan's Labyrinth Returns in 3D for 20th Anniversary from Cineverse and Fathom Entertainment on October 9
/PRNewswire/ -- Cineverse (Nasdaq: CNVS), an entertainment technology company and studio, has announced that Fathom Entertainment, the leading specialty...
Guillermo del Toro's masterpiece Pan's Labyrinth Returns in 3D for 20th Anniversary from Cineverse and Fathom Entertainment on October 9
Cineverse (Nasdaq: CNVS), an entertainment technology company and studio, has announced that Fathom Entertainment, the leading specialty distributor of content to theatrical partners worldwide, will be the theatrical distribution partner for the re-release of Guillermo del Toro's master creation, Pan's Labyrinth. Guillermo del Toro's Pan Labyrinth 20th Anniversary will be released in theaters nationwide on October 9, 2026. The announcement was made ahead of CinemaCon, at which Cineverse will pro
Franya Esquivel
CohnReznick, a leading professional services firm, has announced that Franya Esquivel has joined its Assurance practice as a director.
Manuel Figueroa To Direct 'Wild Ones' Drama Starring Annie Gonzalez
Manuel Figueroa is set to make his feature directorial debut with 'Wild Ones,' a coming-of-age drama starring Annie Gonzalez.
Health Physicists: The Quiet Experts Keeping Radiation Risks in Check
When radioactive materials are involved, whether at a former nuclear weapons site, a decommissioned reactor, or a legacy industrial facility, the goal is simple: protect workers, safeguard communities and reduce potential radiation risks to levels that are demonstrably safe. At the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), health physicists are the professionals responsible for making that happen. Their work is often behind the scenes but always with consequences that matter deeply to the public.
The ‘oldest octopus’ in the world isn’t an octopus after all, scientists find
The story of a 300-million-year-old fossil has been rewritten after scientists discovered that it doesn’t actually belong to the world’s oldest octopus as previously thought.