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Megaberg Ends Its Long Odyssey at Sea
Antarctic Iceberg A-23A’s journey ends in fragmentation in the South Atlantic Ocean, after a 40-year lifespan documented by satellites.
Zohran Mamdani celebrates ‘pothole politics’ in a raucous rally marking 100 days as NYC mayor
Having just marked his first 100 days as New York mayor, Zohran Mamdani told a roaring crowd of supporters, city workers and political allies his administration has already delivered evidence a democratic socialist can, in fact, govern.
Extra half-mile added to some runner’s course during Covenant Health Knoxville Marathon
The email said the lead vehicle took participants approximately a half mile longer than the advertised distance at the turnaround on Neyland Drive.
Trump says Pope Leo is ‘terrible for foreign policy’
US President Donald Trump strongly criticized Pope Leo XIV on Truth Social on Sunday evening, claiming he is “weak on crime” and “terrible for foreign policy.”
Eric Swalwell ends campaign for California governor after sexual misconduct allegations
Rep. Eric Swalwell said Sunday he would withdraw from the California governor’s race in the wake of allegations of sexual misconduct that led to a nearly immediate campaign collapse, as staffers quit and prominent Democratic supporters urged him to drop out.
Eric Swalwell ends campaign for California governor after sexual misconduct allegations
Rep. Eric Swalwell said Sunday he would withdraw from the California governor’s race in the wake of allegations of sexual misconduct that led to a nearly immediate campaign collapse, as staffers quit and prominent Democratic supporters urged him to drop out.
Dodgers Have Chance to Break 142-Year-Old MLB Record
The Los Angeles Dodgers have gotten off to a great start in 2026, and their run differential definitely reflects that.
From Jurassic Park to dreams of AI doom, pop culture shapes science more than we like to admit
The relationship between science and pop culture often looks like a one-way street: scientific discoveries inspire films, television and novels, particularly in science fiction. But the relationship really ...
Oil prices rise after Trump threatens to block passage through Strait of Hormuz
Oil prices topped $100 a barrel again on Sunday after President Donald Trump said the US would blockade “any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz,” threatening to further disrupt oil flows.
Swalwell faces pressure to resign from Congress as former staffers denounce alleged misconduct in new letter
A letter signed by more than 50 former staffers of Rep. Eric Swalwell described recent allegations of sexual assault and misconduct against him as “serious” and “credible,” while demanding he resign from Congress and drop his bid for California governor.
‘Can no longer be a viable, credible gubernatorial candidate’: Lawmakers call for Swalwell to drop out
Christian Yelich leaves Brewers' game against Nationals with hamstring tightness
Christian Yelich left the Milwaukee Brewers' game against the Washington Nationals on Sunday with tightness in his left hamstring. It wasn't immediately clear how Yelich got hurt. He was the designated hitter and went 0 for 2, hitting grounders each time.
The transformative power of sports with Telemundo and FC Dallas
Players aged 5 – 12 took part in soccer clinics w/ FC Dallas coaches, giveaways & more!
Exclusive: Intel Core Ultra 400 "Nova Lake-S" preliminary SKU list leaked: 6 to 52 cores, DDR5-8000 and forward socket compatibility
Intel Nova Lake-S leak confirms DDR5-8000, NPU6 and 175W desktop SKUs Recently we got a chance to look at updated Nova Lake-S roadmaps. You have already
Virginia Business photographer wins Best in Show
Virginia Business won nine awards in the Virginia Press Association‘s 2025 News & Advertising Contest, including a Best in Show award for Specialty Photography to contributing photographer Norm Shafer, the state organization announced during its April 11 annual awards banquet held at The Virginian hotel in Lynchburg. Shafer won the VPA Best in Show award […]
Arc Raiders Launches Map Conditions tracker - here's what the tracker tells us
Embark Studios has released a new tracker to help players monitor map conditions across Arc Raiders.
Golfers battle Trump takeover of public golf courses as one becomes White House East Wing dumping ground
Dem. Congressman: ‘Eric Swalwell needs to resign, needs to drop out of the race’ for CA gov
Eight years later, Apple quietly shuts the door on AI chief John Giannandrea
Since his retirement was announced in 2025, Apple Intelligence head John Giannandrea has been reduced to the role of an advisor, but is now expected to exit Apple Park shortly.
Nikki Haley: Iran thinks ‘they have leverage with the Strait. And they do.’
Why Trump is threatening to blockade a strait that Iran is already blockading
President Donald Trump is threatening to close off the Strait of Hormuz — a crucial waterway that he has repeatedly told Iran must be reopened unconditionally.
Jon Jones may ‘feel the fire’ to return after UFC 327 but Dana White definitely does not
Jon Jones continues to flip flop on whether or not he intends to retire from the sport, which doesn’t surprise UFC CEO Dana White one bit. White spent the last couple of years glazing Jon Jones as the GOAT of MMA, but that all ended after “Bones” retired in June 2025, reneging on a reported […]
Deadlock on Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear stockpile led to impasse, officials say
Entering this weekend’s high-stakes talks in Pakistan, US officials identified a number of key areas where they would need to see progress in order to declare success.
‘Euphoria’ has outgrown itself, on screen and off
Everything was different when “Euphoria” premiered in 2019. Now, as the series makes its long-awaited return Sunday, the third and final season of the show is emerging into a drastically different world, both in terms of the story being told on screen and the generation of stars the show helped launch off screen.
This Action Crime Thriller Just Shot to #1—and the Cast Is Absolutely Loaded
A star-studded crime thriller has quietly climbed to the top of Prime Video’s most-watched list, but, somehow, it flew completely under the radar. Find out more about the chart-topper here.
As Swalwell’s campaign unravels, his rivals in California governor’s race scramble for an opening
The sexual misconduct allegations against Rep. Eric Swalwell are damaging his hopes of winning the governor’s race, with former allies revoking their endorsements and a growing list of prominent Democrats telling him to withdraw.
Science & Medicine: Pain researchers have their eyes on ending chronic pain
A UT Health San Antonio researcher is working to map the nerves involved in jaw pain as part of a federally funded consortium aimed at developing the first targeted, non-opioid treatment for chronic pain, research he hopes will give millions of suffering Americans their lives back and ultimately reverse or even prevent pain in the first place.
New York Jets Flight Connections 04/12/26
Happy Sunday, Jets fans! Here are your links for the last day of this April weekend. Nick Faria – Jets have another potential trade partner in the first round Nick Faria – One line from scout highlights Jets’ real draft ‘plan’ Stefan Stelling – Slipping WR prospect could fall into Jets’ laps at No. 16 […]
Inside my $240-a-night room at theWit Chicago, a Hilton hotel
After spending one night at theWit, a Hilton hotel in Chicago, I think it's a top choice for luxury travelers on a budget.
The Screen Time Maximalists Who Spend an Ungodly Amount of Time on Their Phones
As debates over social media addiction rage, people with extreme screen times tell WIRED they have no plans to cut back.
The most important Democratic health care debate is raging again
Single payer is getting a second wind.
Why reopening the Strait of Hormuz won’t be enough to solve shipping woes and high oil prices
Reopening the Strait of Hormuz is proving to be difficult. But even if the vital waterway fully opens and oil and other necessary cargo sail out, it won’t be enough to return things to normal.
Pulling Reports, Playing Politics
The CIA’s retraction of intelligence reports should raise concerns about politicization and the Trump administration’s embrace of white supremacist rhetoric.
Sooo ... About Last Night
Last night (Sat., April 11, 2026), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) ventured forth to Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida for UFC 327. Was this the deepest numbered event since UFC 300? Maybe Jon Anik was onto something! There were great fights from top to bottom, like Kelvin Gastelum vs. Vicente Luque on the early “Prelims” card. […]
Nintendo's Animated Films Challenge Disney's Box Office Dominance
Nintendo's expansion into theatrical animation, with billion-dollar films and an annual release slate, is challenging Disney's dominance while strategically promoting its gaming hardware and franchises like the successful Switch 2.
Tri-state people in business: New hires, promotions, recognitions
Elvis Kasi joined Medical Associates Clinic of Dubuque’s anesthesia department as a certified nurse practitioner.
Politics: Iowa gubernatorial race shifts to 'toss-up'
The nonpartisan political prediction source Cook Political Report has classified Iowa’s 2026 gubernatorial race as a “toss-up” ahead of this November’s midterms.
Reform’s Startup Culture Raises Risks Ahead of Local Elections
Earlier this year, as Reform UK official Shaun Wilkinson was shortlisting candidates for May’s local elections, he watched in astonishment as a superior remotely replaced one pick in the shared spreadsheet with a recent Conservative defector who he’d rejected.
Insider: Why are politicians cursing so much lately?
“I think that it is simply because it’s accepted,” one political science professor said of the trend of increased public cursing by politicians.
Denver beats Wisconsin 2-1 for its 11th national title and 3rd in 5 years
Denver's Johnny Hicks continued his stellar play by making 29 saves, just two days after a personal-high 49 against Michigan.
Deion Sanders back on the field at Colorado's spring game
After a season that saw Colorado go 3-9, Buffaloes coach Deion Sanders, 58, was hands-on as he watched his team scrimmage on Saturday at the spring game, telling reporters that "I'm good, I'm good," after being diagnosed with bladder cancer last year.
Fury dominates Makhmudov and calls out Joshua next
Tyson Fury marks his return to the heavyweight mix with a composed points win over Arslanbek Makhmudo, before immediately turning ringside to call out Anthony Joshua.
Trump wants to paint a White House office building with ‘magic paint.’ Experts advise against it
President Donald Trump privately advocated for painting an ornate federal office building next to the White House with a “magic paint with silicate,” CNN has learned. But ahead of a key vote on exterior changes to the sprawling Gilded Age structure, a panel of experts is warning the so-called magic paint could be incompatible with the Eisenhower Executive Office Building’s granite exterior.
Chamber of Commerce Presents Achievement Awards
Event also marked 110th of the chamber’s presence in Oswego [caption id=attachment_10469 align=alignright width=450] Abby Waever and Keara Patterson (in the middle) receive the Community Leadership & Legacy Award, presented to The Alberts Group.[/caption] The Greater Oswego-Fulton Chamber of Commerce (GOFCC) on March 4 hosted its 2026 Annual Meeting, presented by Constellation, at the Lake Ontario Event and Conference Center in Oswego. The event’s theme, Rooted in Community. The meeting celebrated the GOFCC’s 110th anniversary in the Oswego community and 10th anniversary of integration with CenterState CEO. The chamber also unveiled a new logo. “I am proud to say the GOFCC has been a force for business success, growth and opportunity, supporting organizations of every size, connecting neighbors and entrepreneurs and ensuring that every voice in Oswego County is heard,” said GOFCC Executive Director Sara Broadwell. The event featured keynote remarks from Novelis’s Kevin Schutt, vice president, manufacturing and production support at Novelis North America. [caption id=attachment_10454 align=alignright width=450] Maria Hudson of Constellation, holding the award, receives the Nancy L. Premo Woman of Distinction Award.[/caption] The GOFCC recognized the following organizations and individuals with achievement awards: • Oswego County Impact & Excellence Award, presented to Oswego County Office of Mobility Management. This award Honors a small business or nonprofit organization that demonstrates outstanding achievement through innovation, growth and measurable positive impact on Oswego County’s economy or quality of life. • Community Leadership & Legacy Award, presented to The Alberts Group. This award recognizes an individual, business or organization whose long-term leadership, investment or philanthropy has significantly advanced the vitality, resilience and future of Oswego County’s communities. • Nancy L. Premo Woman of Distinction Award, presented to Maria Hudson of Constellation. This award honors a woman in business who has made a meaningful impact on her community, inspired others through her leadership, and exemplified the values of service, integrity and empowerment. This award is presented in tribute to the late Nancy Premo, CenterState CEO’s former vice president of Human Resources.
Seniors: Dennis Ouellette, 80
Ontario Orchards owner not slowing down as he grows his farm market By Stefan Yablonski The seeds for Dennis Ouellette’s career path were sown when he was 6 years old — and he isn’t slowing down. “Since age 6, I grew up an agriculturalist. That is 72 years. Started out with a 37-acre farm when I bought it from my parents and built it up to almost 300 acres. Brought it back down to around 200 acres now,” he said. The location of his business was just a barn, a horse barn, he said. “In 1967, it officially became Ontario Orchards Farm Market. My wife [June] and I graduated [high school] in 1964 and three years later we became Ontario Orchards. We have been here more than 60 years,” he explained. “It is the same location. We have expanded over the years as the customers mentioned different things; we have expanded to bring in different products. “What keeps me going is I totally enjoy what I am doing. I enjoy the people that I work with. The customers are wonderful. Mostly, more important than anything, is my family — my wife, my daughters, grandchildren, son-in-law — we are still very much a family business I’m not going to retire just yet.” He also enjoys the changing seasons. “Ontario Orchards is a four-season business. There is always something new; more energy, more interest. Not only for the business but for my staff, the people that work here. Things keep changing, changing. We are always looking forward to something new and exciting,” he said. They work with quite a number of local farmers within the area and throughout the state, throughout the country and from around the world.” “We do have things from different countries around the world. But specifically, we are very excited about the local. We have an over 200-acre farm. We sell just about everything we raise on that farm right here at the farm market. For example, we press cider year-round. We make baked goods every day, year-round. We sell our apples 12 months a year.” “Today, there are so many products in Ontario Orchards that we never would have thought of in 1967,” he continued. “I attribute a lot of that to my daughters. I like the young blood and new energy. That is very crucial to a business, it keeps it vibrant.” What’s his favorite part of the job? “I don’t have a favorite part. I enjoy it all. I have a lot of intertest in other things,” he said. “I have staff that knows so much. I can go to the staff and say, ‘I don’t know what this is, you tell me what this is.’ They are so knowledgeable. It is impossible for one person to know everything in this place. In the summer, staff is about 60; in the winter about 20, 25.” He added that he plans on being around for several more years.
Seniors: Carol Watson, 72
Owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping in LaFayette enjoys her growing business — still puts in six-, seven-day weeks By Mary Beth Roach Carol Watson, the owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping, has been in gardens since she could walk. Literally. She said she learned to walk in her grandfather’s garden, which was next door to her current home and business in LaFayette. Today, at 72, she is running the business that her mother, Claire, opened in 1981 as Watson Greenhouse. Watson worked part-time for her mom until 1990, when she joined her full time. While she may not have had any formal horticultural experience, she said she learned so much about growing and raising plants from her mom, who had an abundance of energy and talent. Now, after 35 years in the business full time, Watson has no plans to retire, although she joked that she’d like a couple of days off a week. On her seven-acre site, complete with four greenhouses, Watson said her favorite parts of the job are working with and educating her customers; helping some of her young customers build terrariums; conducting occasional class field trips; and supporting local art by decorating the shop with an eclectic mix of pottery from at least four area craftspeople. A one-time employee of the former Dey Bros. department store in Syracuse, Watson said she loves merchandising and enjoys displaying unique pieces of art on shelves and even suspending from ceilings. “We’re creative. We also had top quality plants. We got a reputation of quality plants and unusual products,” she said. It’s tending to her customers and her plants, showcasing the unusual products, and hosting special events to benefit the community that keep her motivated to work six to seven days a week. “I just love it. I love taking care of the plants. I’m one of the few people that really enjoys watering,” she said. And while she has cultivated a solid customer base over the years, she remains savvy in her marketing efforts to draw in new customers. For example, she does a gardening segment on CNY Central television; her active Facebook page has thousands of followers; and she hosts a number of unique events and classes that not only introduce her shop to potential new clients, but some benefit nonprofits as well. About 13 years ago, when the local symphony orchestra was struggling, she said she wanted to help. So, partnering with the group, she began offering concerts, called Soirees, featuring the Syracuse Orchestra’s string quartet. Following up on a suggestion from a customer whose brother is a deejay in retirement, specializing in sock hops, she hosted the greenhouse’s first sock hop. Plants got moved back toward the walls to make room for dancing; a caterer was brought in, offering diner-like food; guests came in period outfits; and proceeds went to the Food Bank of CNY. She is excited about doing it again in October. Via her website, she promotes the greenhouse as an “oasis in the snow,” offering visitors the opportunity to pick up some decorating and gift ideas while taking in the floral and citrus scents. And she also caters to her four-legged friends. Over this past winter, she said, she came up with a “brilliant idea,” although at the time she didn’t appreciate just how brilliant it would become. Feeling it too cold outside to take her dog for a walk, she opted to bring it into the greenhouse. And before long, she was inviting people to bring their dogs into the big greenhouse as well. She looks forward to extending that invitation again this upcoming winter season. For Watson and her customers, the greenhouse is always in season.
Appeals court says Trump White House ballroom construction can proceed for now
A federal appeals court said Saturday that President Donald Trump can move ahead for another week with construction of a massive new White House ballroom while judges consider the project.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Borderlands 4 Nintendo Switch 2 copies apparently spotted in the wild despite the game being put on hold indefinitely
There’s been an interesting development with the Nintendo Switch 2 version of Borderlands 4 as the game has now been spotted at retail. You may originally recall that the port was planned for release last October. However, it was delayed just a few days before release. Then in February, we heard that development had been paused. That brings us to...
Photo Of Cameron Brink, LeBron James Grabs Basketball World's Attention
WNBA star Cameron Brink was at Crypto.com Arena on Friday night to watch LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers square off against the Phoenix Suns. Unfortunately for the Lakers, this month hasn't been very kind to them. A few days ago, All-Star guard Luka Doncic suffered a grade 2 hamstring ...
What the tech bros are getting wrong about longevity that you can get right
A whole industry revolves around longevity, but much of it misses the point. Kara Swisher learns what matters in the new CNN series, “Kara Swisher Wants to Live Forever.”
7 adrenaline-pumping entertainment apps to survive the wait between Shark Week 2026 episodes
With the brand new 2026 season, millions of viewers are again gearing up for a week of jaw-dropping marine biology, storytelling, and cinematography.
Artemis II crew used modern photography to tell the visual story of their lunar journey – and update some classic Apollo images
A space historian explains how the Artemis II crew reimagined some Apollo-era photos and found spectacular new angles.
All eyes are going to be on Justin Bieber at Coachella
Justin Bieber’s headlining set at Coachella on Saturday will be important moment in his slow-walked return to the stage following a turbulent few years marked by health struggles and cancelled tours.
‘It’s solid gold’: Some Texas Republicans ramp up criticisms of Muslims to energize primary voters
Running in a contentious race to keep his seat, US Sen. John Cornyn put out an ad vowing to fight “radical Islam.”
These women had their breasts removed to thwart cancer. Then came the pain.
Many women are afflicted by post-mastectomy pain syndrome, which spans from uncomfortable to disabling and can last years. It’s inconsistently diagnosed and treated, leaving some women in agony as they hunt for relief and struggle to find doctors who take their pain seriously.
A key criminal case could soon get tossed because of acting Attorney General Todd Blanche’s comments
As Todd Blanche takes the reins at the Justice Department, a federal judge is set to decide whether controversial remarks made last year by the now-acting attorney general should lead to the unravelling of one of the Trump administration’s marquee criminal cases.
Women in science: Sheridan College performs play on life of female astronomer
In honor of Cecilia Payne-Gaposchkin, Sheridan College theater will perform the 2024 Stella Feehily play “The Lightest Element,” highlighting various moments in the scientist’s life
I found the ‘memory cheat code’ for ChatGPT — and it fixed my worst problem with AI
One simple prompt stopped ChatGPT from “forgetting” everything mid-conversation — and it completely changed how I use it
Chelsea monitoring Nottingham Forest’s Murillo
Chelsea have shortlisted Nottingham Forest centre-half Murillo as the Blues search for defensive reinforcement this summer, according to Jacob Steinberg.Chelsea desperately need an experienced defende...
Insights from CLI: Tracking AI's Impact on Offices and Business Parks in APAC
April 11, 2026 -- Artificial intelligence (AI) will be one of the most consequential technological shifts of the current era. It will fundamenta...
Exclusive: US intelligence indicates China is preparing weapons shipment to Iran amid fragile ceasefire, sources say
US intelligence indicates that China is preparing to deliver new air defense systems to Iran within the next few weeks, according to three people familiar with recent intelligence assessments.
Framework CEO warns AI boom may lead to a scenario where "personal computing as we know it is dead”
Framework CEO Nirav Patel warns that the AI boom and a “winner-takes-all” scramble for chips and storage could drive up component costs and push consumers toward cloud-leased, closed devices, effectively ending personal computing as traditionally understood. While acknowledging progress in repairability across the industry, he positions Framework’s upcoming Next Gen Event as part of a renewed pledge to defend user ownership through upgradable, repairable hardware and local control over data and computation.
In praise of popular science
As a kid, I was enthusiastically and unreservedly in favor of a manned space program. Our destiny lay in the stars, I figured. Get people out there. We need Star Trek here and now. As I got older, I became rather disenchanted with the idea. Humans are expensive, fragile, and inefficient as space cargo. We could flood the solar system with 100 robotic probes for the price of any single manned mission and get back just as useful data. Besides, it turns out space travel is dangerous. Tusk is a reader-supported publication. To support this work, please become a paid subscriber. Subscribe When it came to the recent Artemis II mission, my cynical side didn’t really see the point. Flying around the Moon and back is literally something we did before I was born, and I once owned a Members Only jacket. Apollo 8 circled the Moon ten times and returned to Earth safely the same month that “Chitty Chitty Bang Bang” was released. What was the point of repeating a feat that far braver people once did with tin foil and slide rules? Yet I’ve surprised myself with how moving I’ve found the Artemis II mission to be. The photos have been stunning. The crew has been professional and engaging. There have been modest but important milestones — the farthest humans have travelled from Earth; the first woman, person of color, and non-American to leave low-Earth orbit; innovations in communication, and more. One thing that really stood out is that this is really NASA at its finest. Not that this is the most important mission they ever pulled off, but they did this in a competent way that celebrated the achievements and kept the crew and the science at the forefront of the project. This wasn’t some billionaire throwing celebrities or cars into orbit as a vanity project — this was a collective effort to send experts in to do a job and come home safely. We don’t see that sort of thing much these days. I’m guessing few people would describe many government agencies as inspiring, but this one counts for me. We’re living through a profoundly anti-science era, in which pathbreaking, lifesaving discoveries like mRNA vaccines are routinely downplayed or even vilified. As I’ve noted previously, this era is something like that of the Red Scare in the 1940s and 50s, in which “egghead” professors were portrayed as out of touch or even hostile to regular Americans. One of the things that helped break that spell was Sputnik — the Soviet communications satellite that demonstrated that the United States was falling behind in crucial scientific research and applications. Its launch triggered a new appreciation for American science and goaded the federal government into supporting research universities and labs. I’m not saying that Artemis is the equivalent of Sputnik, but it potentially reminds people that there’s some value to scientific endeavors and the human faces attached to them. Despite my love for the show “For All Mankind,” I’m far from convinced that there’s any real value to putting colonies on the Moon or Mars that would justify the capital investment and the massive health risks to the astronauts. But sending scientific good will ambassadors on a trip into space once in a while? Bring it. Share
IBM to pay $17 million in anti-DEI settlement
IBM reached a settlement with the federal government on Friday, agreeing to pay roughly $17 million to resolve allegations of illegal diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) practices.
Vance meets Pakistan PM as US-Iran peace talks begin
Pakistan has emerged as a key player in efforts to extend a fragile ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, hosting high-stakes talks involving Vice President JD Vance and senior advisers as both sides explore a path toward a more lasting agreement.
Melania Trump’s Epstein statement stunned White House aides but was in keeping with a first lady who does her own thing
With war raging and midterms on the horizon, the White House seemed to have finally shaken the Jeffrey Epstein saga that plagued the first year of Donald Trump’s second term. But for first lady Melania Trump, the Epstein story was still all consuming.
Democrats withdraw endorsements of Eric Swalwell and demand he end bid for California governor
Rep. Eric Swalwell’s bid for the California governor’s office was reeling Friday as staffers resigned and top Democratic supporters withdrew their endorsements in the wake of allegations of sexual misconduct.
Iran Unable to Find Mines in Strait of Hormuz, U.S. Says
The lost mines have prevented Iran from quickly complying with President Trump’s demand to allow more ships to pass through the waterway.
Exclusive: Four women describe sexual misconduct by Rep. Eric Swalwell, including a former staffer who says he raped her
A former staffer of Rep. Eric Swalwell, a leading Democratic candidate for California governor, says that the congressman raped her when she was heavily intoxicated, an allegation Swalwell strongly denies.
Are you a ‘HENRY’? Why 90% of financial advisers will waive their minimums to get your business.
Most advisory firms’ $500,000 or $1 million thresholds are actually just branding tools. Here’s how to tell if you’re actually a good fit for their services.
Can sports media really change the way you look at sports?
While stats are helpful, very rarely do numbers tell the full story.
Trump administration unveils renderings of its proposed gold-accented arch
Designs for a towering, gold-accented triumphal arch near Arlington National Cemetery were revealed by the White House on Friday – providing more insight into the latest iteration of President Donald Trump’s desire to mold the physical footprint of Washington, DC, into his own vision.
How OpenAI's reported ad plans could change the AI business model
OpenAI (OPAI.PVT) is reportedly projecting $100 billion in advertising revenue by 2030. Yahoo Finance Technology Editor Dan Howley explains how this could shift the artificial intelligence (AI) business model.
Grim new economic numbers highlight how Trump is losing leverage against Iran
The week began with President Donald Trump saber-rattling like we’ve never seen before. He threatened apparent war crimes and to end a “whole civilization” if Iran didn’t meet his demands.
Pontiac Once Ran A Super Bowl Commercial Featuring An Option That Was Cancelled Almost Immediately Because The Suits Freaked Out
Super Bowl commercials have always been a big deal, right from the beginning. You have a massive captive audience, suitable primed on beer and nachos to be as suggestible as possible. That’s why carmakers have always been some of the most eager purchasers of Super Bowl ad time, and why they’ve tended to use it […]
Chief Executive Officer at Stellar Development Foundation to speak at Loebl Women Business Leaders Series, April 16
The series enables the Marquette University community to interact and engage with renowned women business leaders.
Scientists turn 'mess' into breakthrough: Chaotic design unlocks next-generation optical devices
Researchers from the Monash University School of Physics and Astronomy have flipped a long-held assumption in optics, showing that deliberately introducing controlled disorder into ultra-thin optical ...
Al Roker stops 'Today' interview with 'Laguna Beach' star over wardrobe malfunction: 'Guys, on live television?'
'Laguna Beach' star handled a wardrobe malfunction that occurred on live TV like a pro Friday on 'Today.'
Flag-raising ceremonies honor lifesaving organ donation
Penn State Health honored the lifesaving impact of organ donation during April 9 flag-raising ceremonies in Hershey and East Pennsboro Township.
Cenkusha Launches C1: An AI-Enabled Business Management System that Reveals How Value Flows in Organizations
Cenkusha is a technology company that provides the organizational nervous system and structural backbone that modern enterprises need to operate intelligently in an increasingly complex world.
Democratic Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi says Melania Trump’s Epstein statement was ‘very important’
White House warns staff against insider trading on prediction markets
The White House recently warned staff not to engage in insider trading on prediction markets and other platforms, according to a White House official.
Looking for weekend plans? Book fair, Open Streets: West Walnut offer entertainment for all
There are two fun events happening this weekend that we want to tell you about! First, Books and Brews Philly and South Philly bookstore A Novel idea are teaming up for a “Grown-Up Book Fair and Swap” on Sunday afternoon. Then, also on Sunday, we have “Open Streets: West Walnut” which just opened for the spring season. NBC10’s Sheila Watko tells us more about the upcoming events!
Kamala Harris says she ‘might’ run for president in 2028. Is she what Democrats are looking for?
There are 'reasons to be confident' about faulty Artemis II heat shield ahead of 25,000 mph reentry, space expert Ed Macauley says
NASA's Artemis II heat shield is about to face its ultimate test as the Orion crew prepares for reentry. Physics and data science lecturer Ed Macaulay tells Live Science reasons to be confident ahead of today's historic splashdown.
What the DOJ's NFL investigation could mean for networks, fans
What could the federal government's investigation of the NFL mean for fans and television networks?
VP Vance is in Pakistan this weekend for ceasefire talks with Iran. An ex-Trump Iran negotiator shares his best-case scenario
Interview: Rob McClure on the Unsettling Reality of SPARE PARTS – “This Isn’t Science Fiction. It’s Just Science.”
“Experimenting on yourself is insane. An experiment on a single person, with no controls, tells you nothing. It is incapable of predicting anything.” Or… is it? Such is the premise of Spare Parts, the darkly comedic and deeply twisted new drama currently shaking up Theatre Row through April 30th — and subverting our standards of what …Read more
Pokemon Champions Review
Pokemon Champions brings competitive battling to the masses but fails to adequately explain all of its intricacies.
Trump’s Pakistan gamble: Can talks produce peace?
Iran will approach these meetings pretending it’s the power at the table. That’s what they do. But the boastfulness conceals a country that has just been hammered militarily, in shambles economically, and without the support of its own people.