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Coffeehouse to feature music, Downeast humor, pie

Tim Joy and Bonnie Guerrette will entertain at a Coffeehouse at Hammond Hall in Winter Harbor on Friday, April 24, at 7 p.m.

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Apr 13 • 8:00 AM EDT • Entertainment • ellsworthamerican.com
Deloitte's Space Business Reaches New Heights as Two New Satellites Enter Orbit

/PRNewswire/ -- Key takeaways Deloitte-2 and Deloitte-3, launched on March 29, 2026, from Vandenberg Space Force Base to expand Deloitte's on-orbit footprint....

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Apr 13 • 8:00 AM EDT • Business • prnewswire.com
TCL CSOT Will Launch A Dual-Mode Monitor With 4X Refresh Rate Switching With Up To 640 Hz

TCL CSOT plans a dual-mode monitor with 4X refresh rate switching, reaching up to 640 Hz at 1080p, potentially featuring OLED technology.

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Apr 13 • 7:43 AM EDT • Technology • wccftech.com
Live updates: Swalwell drops bid for California governor; Trump and Pope Leo feud

Get live updates and the latest news as Eric Swalwell drops his bid for California governor amid sexual misconduct allegations and Trump feuds with Pope Leo over his criticism of the Iran war.

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Apr 13 • 7:29 AM EDT • Politics • nbcnews.com
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Archer teams with ‘Mandalorian and Grogu’ for first entertainment deal

As the meat snacks marketer expands, it is collaborating with the “Star Wars” universe for a campaign spanning retail, digital, social and out-of-home.

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Apr 13 • 6:35 AM EDT • Entertainment • marketingdive.com
Random: Borderlands 4 Physical Switch 2 Version Apparently Surfaces In The Wild

Development on the Nintendo version was paused

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Apr 13 • 6:30 AM EDT • Technology • nintendolife.com
Calls grow for Eric Swalwell to resign from House amid sexual assault allegations

The California Democrat suspended his campaign for governor amid sexual assault and misconduct allegations by a former staff member and at least three other women

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Apr 13 • 6:19 AM EDT • Politics • theguardian.com
Who’s the greatest No. 1 pick in WNBA history? Our ranking delivers answers

This year marks the 30th WNBA draft. From Tina Thompson to A'ja Wilson, we've ranked each of the No. 1 overall picks in league history.

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Apr 13 • 6:02 AM EDT • Sports • usatoday.com
Turning car battery acid into clean energy: A surprising breakthrough in plastic recycling

Science News: Plastic waste on a global level amounts to hundreds of millions of tonnes annually, although very little of that is recycled. On the other hand, corro.

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Apr 13 • 5:30 AM EDT • Science • timesofindia.indiatimes.com
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Artificial sweeteners: Why the science war is raging on

Conflicting studies on artificial sweeteners are fuelling fresh debate across food and drink, as health risks, regulation and reformulation collide worldwide.

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Apr 13 • 5:07 AM EDT • Science • foodnavigator.com
The US in Brief: Swalwell’s out

Our daily political update, featuring the stories that matter

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Apr 13 • 5:04 AM EDT • Politics • economist.com
Business Travel Market Expected to Reach USD 2,095.4 billion by 2031, at a CAGR of 9.5%: Allied Market Research

Allied Market Research published a report, titled, "business travel Market by INDUSTRY (Government, Corporate), by SERVICE (Transportation, Food and Lodging, Recreation), by TRAVELER (Group, Solo): Global Opportunity Analysis and Industry Forecast, 2021-2031". According to the report the global business travel market, valued at USD 689.7 billion in 2021, is projected to reach USD 2,095.4 billion by 2031, expanding at a CAGR of 9.5% over the forecast period — more than tripling in size within a d

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Apr 13 • 5:00 AM EDT • Business • finance.yahoo.com
Why does déjà vu happen, and can science explain it?

Learning with TOI News: You’re walking into a place you’ve never been to before. And yet, for a fleeting moment, it feels known. Not vaguely familiar, but specific, like a me.

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Apr 13 • 4:05 AM EDT • Science • timesofindia.indiatimes.com
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In VfB masterclass: why Mittelstädt just let fly

In VfB Stuttgart’s impressive performance against Hamburger SV, Maximilian Mittelstädt was especially in the spotlight. The left-back not only delivered a flawless defensive display in the Swabians...

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Apr 13 • 3:14 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Northern Ireland swimmers ready to take on best in Commonwealth

BBC Sport NI looks at swimmers hoping to be confirmed as part of the Northern Ireland squad for the 2026 Commonwealth Games in Glasgow.

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Apr 13 • 2:39 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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Baker Hughes sells Waygate unit to Hexagon for about $1.45 billion

Oilfield services provider Baker ​Hughes sold its Waygate Technologies ‌unit to Swedish industrial technology group Hexagon for about $1.45 billion in ​cash, the two companies ​said on Monday.

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Apr 13 • 2:08 AM EDT • Business • reuters.com
Rep. Eric Swalwell’s lawyer speaks with CNN regarding recent allegations
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Apr 13 • 1:23 AM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
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Trump’s strait blockade risks another serious blow to the global economy

The failure of US-Iran peace talks leaves President Donald Trump with a set of unattractive options that are unlikely to hand him a decisive or swift victory.

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Apr 13 • 12:01 AM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
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Connections: Sports Edition today: Hints and answers for April 13, 2026, puzzle No. 567

Welcome to Connections: Sports Edition Coach — a spot to gather clues and discuss (and share) scores.

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Apr 13 • 12:00 AM EDT • Sports • nytimes.com
Stop wasting time on hair myths: 5 science-backed secrets that can actually grow your hair

If you’ve ever gone down the rabbit hole of “hair growth hacks,” you already know how confusing it gets. Oil this, don’t oil that. Cut your hair, don’t cut your hair. Everyone seems to have an opinion - and half of it contradicts the other half.So let’s simplify things.Here are 5 science-backed habits that actually support better, healthier hair growth. No overnight miracles - just real, practical changes that make a difference over time.

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Apr 12 • 11:38 PM EDT • Science • timesofindia.indiatimes.com
Today's NYT Connections: Sports Edition Hints, Answers for April 13 #567

Here's today's Connections: Sports Edition answer and hints for groups. These clues will help you solve The New York Times' popular puzzle game, Connections: Sports Edition, every day.

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Apr 12 • 10:19 PM EDT • Sports • cnet.com
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Rep. Eric Swalwell suspends campaign for California governor after sex assault allegations

Rep. Eric Swalwell faced intense pressure to drop his bid for California governor after reporting Friday that prompted many supporters to drop their support for him

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Apr 12 • 9:06 PM EDT • Politics • calmatters.org
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Eric Swalwell suspends campaign for California governor

Swalwell continues to deny the allegations

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Apr 12 • 8:49 PM EDT • Politics • spectrumlocalnews.com
Eric Swalwell drops bid for California governor after sexual misconduct allegations

The Democratic candidate faced immediate calls to end his campaign, with many supporters withdrawing their endorsements.

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Apr 12 • 8:44 PM EDT • Politics • nbcnews.com
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Eric Swalwell ends campaign for California governor after sexual misconduct allegations

Rep. Eric Swalwell said Sunday he would withdraw from the California governor’s race in the wake of allegations of sexual misconduct that led to a nearly immediate campaign collapse, as staffers quit and prominent Democratic supporters urged him to drop out.

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Apr 12 • 8:43 PM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
Eric Swalwell ends campaign for California governor after sexual misconduct allegations

Rep. Eric Swalwell said Sunday he would withdraw from the California governor’s race in the wake of allegations of sexual misconduct that led to a nearly immediate campaign collapse, as staffers quit and prominent Democratic supporters urged him to drop out.

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Apr 12 • 8:43 PM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
DHS investigating claim about Swalwell nanny filed by conspiracy theorist

Joel Gilbert, who mailed anti-Barack Obama film to voters in 2012, accuses congressman of violating immigration law

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Apr 12 • 8:04 PM EDT • Politics • theguardian.com
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BIZNOTE: After almost a quarter-century, Avalon Glassworks looking for new ownership for their unique West Seattle business

By Tracy Record West Seattle Blog editor More change is on the way for the heart of the Luna Park mini-business district. Shannon Felix and Jon Felix are looking for new ownership for Avalon Glassworks, which they've owned for 23 of its 33 years at 2914 SW Avalon Way. Their one-of-a-kind business - West Seattle's only commercial ...

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Apr 12 • 7:42 PM EDT • Business • westseattleblog.com
New Cold Case Task Force spotlights growing role of private forensic labs

The same DNA science being used to bring closure to families in long-unsolved cases is also increasingly being used as a frontline investigative tool.

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Apr 12 • 7:35 PM EDT • Politics • floridapolitics.com
‘Problem solver’ Richard Lamondin bolsters South Florida party support after SD 38 switch

‘His priorities are our priorities.’

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Apr 12 • 7:15 PM EDT • Politics • floridapolitics.com
Is Caesars Entertainment (CZR) Offering Value After Recent Share Price Swings?

If you are wondering whether Caesars Entertainment at US$26.88 is a bargain or a value trap, the key is understanding what you are really paying for today. The stock is up 1.3% over the last week and 14.1% year to date, but that sits alongside a 4.2% decline over the last month and longer term returns of 6.1% over 1 year, 38.2% over 3 years and 71.3% over 5 years. Those mixed returns sit against a backdrop of ongoing attention on Caesars Entertainment as a major US gaming and hospitality...

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Apr 12 • 7:09 PM EDT • Entertainment • finance.yahoo.com
End of the Orban Era: The Party Is Just Starting for Hungarians

In the end, the biggest surprise wasn’t just how resoundingly Viktor Orban was ejected from power but how swiftly the Hungarian prime minister conceded the termination of his 16-year reign.

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Apr 12 • 6:29 PM EDT • Politics • bloomberg.com
Porsche Patents Racing Stripes That Appear When You Switch Into Sport Mode

Using an electrical current to change the outward appearance of certain body panels, this Porsche tech could make racing stripes appear on command.

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Apr 12 • 6:25 PM EDT • Technology • jalopnik.com
Josh Elander discusses Tennessee's series sweep at Mississippi State

Tennessee baseball completes series sweep at Mississippi State.

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Apr 12 • 5:53 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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Brewers expecting 'bad news' after losing Christian Yelich to hamstring injury, dropping 5th straight in sweep by Nationals
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Apr 12 • 5:39 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Andrew Abbott discusses Reds loss to Angels

Reds starter Andrew Abbott went three-plus innings in the Reds' 9-6 loss to the Angels on April 12.

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Apr 12 • 5:23 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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Swalwell faces pressure to resign from Congress as former staffers denounce alleged misconduct in new letter

A letter signed by more than 50 former staffers of Rep. Eric Swalwell described recent allegations of sexual assault and misconduct against him as “serious” and “credible,” while demanding he resign from Congress and drop his bid for California governor.

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Apr 12 • 4:58 PM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
‘Can no longer be a viable, credible gubernatorial candidate’: Lawmakers call for Swalwell to drop out
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Apr 12 • 4:52 PM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
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Astronomers detect mega-laser beam signal from 8 billion light-years away

Science News: One of the most remarkable discoveries made by astronomers in recent years is the identification of an extremely strong \"mega-laser\" signal that has t.

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Apr 12 • 4:30 PM EDT • Science • timesofindia.indiatimes.com
California Republicans caught between Trump loyalty and winning swing districts

California Republicans embrace Trump at their convention while candidates in competitive races keep him at arm's length to win over voters.

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Apr 12 • 4:27 PM EDT • Politics • calmatters.org
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Calls grow for Eric Swalwell to exit politics over sexual assault allegations

An expanding number of Democrats, including fellow Californians, are asking their House colleague to quit his campaign for governor and resign from Congress.

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Apr 12 • 3:19 PM EDT • Politics • ms.now
What Flutter Entertainment (FLUT)'s Board Shuffle, Buybacks and Quiet Dart Stake Mean For Shareholders

In recent days, Flutter Entertainment plc reported that long-serving independent director Alfred F. Hurley, Jr. will retire at the 2026 AGM, with Nancy Dubuc set to assume the role of Chair of the Compensation and Human Resources Committee, while the company continues executing a multi-billion-dollar share repurchase program. At the same time, billionaire investor Kenneth Dart has quietly built substantial economic exposure to Flutter through total return swaps, even as analysts question...

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Apr 12 • 3:07 PM EDT • Entertainment • finance.yahoo.com
Business Weekly Agenda for April12

Events for the Greater Berks business community.

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Apr 12 • 2:45 PM EDT • Business • readingeagle.com
Calls grow for Rep. Swalwell to resign or be expelled over misconduct claims

Several Democratic and Republican lawmakers said they would be in favor of voting to expel Swalwell, as well as Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas), who both face misconduct allegations.

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Apr 12 • 2:15 PM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
Op-Ed: Protecting Taxpayers Means Looking Beyond the Politics of Short-Term Rentals

Santa Barbara is on the verge of making a consequential decision about short-term rentals—but without first answering a basic question: what will it cost?

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Apr 12 • 2:13 PM EDT • Politics • edhat.com
Fallout from Eric Swalwell scandal grows as lawmakers eye House expulsion votes

The political crisis surrounding Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell is rapidly escalating into a broader bipartisan showdown that could reshape the makeup of the House.

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Apr 12 • 1:48 PM EDT • Politics • cbsnews.com
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California Democrats Rushed to Back Eric Swalwell — and Quickly Abandoned Him

Representative Eric Swalwell, a Washington figure, was largely unknown in the California State Capitol. But influential groups began backing him for governor in the weeks before he was publicly accused of sexual assault.

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Apr 12 • 1:28 PM EDT • Politics • nytimes.com
North Tahoe Chamber selects Cory Hunt as its new Business Development Manager

KINGS BEACH, Calif. – The North Tahoe Chamber announced that Cory Hunt has been hired as its new Business Development Manager. Responsible for cultivating opportunities for new and emerging businesses in North Tahoe, Hunt will...

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Apr 12 • 1:05 PM EDT • Business • sierrasun.com
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Dodgers Announce Lineup For Rangers Sweep Attempt

The Los Angeles Dodgers are looking to go undefeated against the Texas Rangers and complete the regular-season series sweep.

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Apr 12 • 1:03 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Brewers score vs Nationals today, live game updates, highlights, lineups

The Brewers will try to avoid being swept by the Nationals on Sunday afternoon at American Family Field.

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Apr 12 • 12:56 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Some House members say they'll vote to expel Reps. Eric Swalwell and Tony Gonzales

Reps. Eric Swalwell, D-Calif., and Tony Gonzalez, R-Texas, have faced sexual misconduct allegations from former staffers.

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Apr 12 • 12:28 PM EDT • Politics • nbcnews.com
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Dem. Congressman: ‘Eric Swalwell needs to resign, needs to drop out of the race’ for CA gov
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Apr 12 • 11:04 AM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
'Euphoria' Season 3 returns with new plot and dedications

After four years, 'Euphoria' Season 3 premieres this weekend, dedicated to Angus Cloud and others. What to know.

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Apr 12 • 10:12 AM EDT • Entertainment • democratandchronicle.com
Green Powered Challenge: Solar Powered Pi Hosts Websites In RAM

If you started with computers early enough, you’ll remember the importance of the RAMdisk concept: without a hard drive and with floppies slow and swapping constantly, everything had to live …

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Apr 12 • 10:00 AM EDT • Technology • hackaday.com
Where to watch Charlotte Hornets vs. New York Knicks: Live stream, start time, TV channel, odds for Sunday, April 12

The Hornets can potentially improve their seeding with a win over the Knicks.

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Apr 12 • 9:54 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
This Action Crime Thriller Just Shot to #1—and the Cast Is Absolutely Loaded

A star-studded crime thriller has quietly climbed to the top of Prime Video’s most-watched list, but, somehow, it flew completely under the radar. Find out more about the chart-topper here.

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Apr 12 • 9:00 AM EDT • Entertainment • purewow.com
Column: Bye, bye Eric. Swalwell needs to go

Swalwell needs to drop out of the governor's race and resign from Congress.

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Apr 12 • 9:00 AM EDT • Politics • latimes.com
"Sweet blood doesn't attract mosquitoes: here is what actually attracts them according to science " - Futura-Sciences

At night, you hear the constant buzzing of a mosquito. By morning, there’s a fresh bite right on your cheek. Meanwhile, your partner slept peacefully through the night. During a walk with friends, you’re the one constantly swatting at tiny attacks on your legs, arms, and back. Like tiny vampires...

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Apr 12 • 8:30 AM EDT • Science • futura-sciences.com
Brewers ask Brandon Woodruff to salvage series finale vs. Nationals

The Milwaukee Brewers will turn to veteran Brandon Woodruff as they look to avoid a series sweep by the visiting Washington Nationals on Sunday afternoon.

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Apr 12 • 8:04 AM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
As Swalwell’s campaign unravels, his rivals in California governor’s race scramble for an opening

The sexual misconduct allegations against Rep. Eric Swalwell are damaging his hopes of winning the governor’s race, with former allies revoking their endorsements and a growing list of prominent Democrats telling him to withdraw.

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Apr 12 • 8:00 AM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
I grew up in a family of entrepreneurs. Here’s what I had to unlearn to build a $1 billion business

I grew up in Switzerland surrounded by entrepreneurs: my grandfather in construction, my father in surveying, my uncles in packaging and construction.

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Apr 12 • 7:30 AM EDT • Business • fortune.com
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New York Giants land 'surprise' defender in latest CBS Sports mock draft

In the latest CBS Sports mock draft, the New York Giants pass on commonly projected prospects in favor of a "surprise" defender.

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Apr 12 • 6:04 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Falcons projected starting defense with player grades

Projecting the Falcons starting lineup on defense with player grades

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Apr 12 • 6:04 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Country music star says UFOs chased her plane for hundreds of miles

She said the orbs followed her plane from Arkansas to Nashville.

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Apr 12 • 6:00 AM EDT • Entertainment • lehighvalleylive.com
After being an iPhone user for 13 years, here's why I'm finally switching to Android for good

After 13 years with an iPhone, I finally made the switch to Android — and it all came down to one simple feature.

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Apr 12 • 5:30 AM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
Tencent Music Entertainment Group (NYSE:TME) Valuation Check As Options Volatility Climbs And Analyst Caution Grows

Recent trading in Tencent Music Entertainment Group (NYSE:TME) options has shown unusually high implied volatility. This points to expectations of sharp share price swings, while analyst sentiment on the stock and sector remains cautious. See our latest analysis for Tencent Music Entertainment Group. The latest share price of $9.36 sits against a 30 day share price return of 34.04% and a year to date share price return of 47.59%, while the 1 year total shareholder return of 21.48% contrasts...

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Apr 12 • 5:22 AM EDT • Entertainment • simplywall.st
Inside Tinder HQ, from a Lego station to roof-deck espresso

Tinder's West Hollywood headquarters has seaweed snacks, protein bars, and beer on tap. For those with a sweet tooth, there's full-size candy bars.

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Apr 12 • 5:10 AM EDT • Business • businessinsider.com
AI health questions? 4 chatbot prompt tips to get the most accurate answers

AI chatbots can still get medical questions wrong, according to new research.

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Apr 12 • 5:00 AM EDT • Health • mashable.com
Athletics finding reasons to celebrate while Mets looking for answers

The Athletics went viral with a new home run celebration Saturday as they locked up a winning road trip to New York.

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Apr 12 • 4:25 AM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
Sports Highlights

Chris Hayashi: Chris Hayashi, a senior on the Lake Oswego boys track team, put in one of the best efforts of the season during his team’s meet against Oregon City […]

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Apr 12 • 2:04 AM EDT • Sports • lakeoswegoreview.com
Nintendo's Animated Films Challenge Disney's Box Office Dominance

Nintendo's expansion into theatrical animation, with billion-dollar films and an annual release slate, is challenging Disney's dominance while strategically promoting its gaming hardware and franchises like the successful Switch 2.

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Apr 12 • 2:01 AM EDT • Entertainment • indexbox.io
How to get a refund on the Nintendo eShop

Here's what you can and can't get refunds for on the Nintendo eShop on Switch and Switch 2 with information on how to actually get one.

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Apr 12 • 12:50 AM EDT • Technology • nintendoeverything.com
Connections: Sports Edition today: Hints and answers for April 12, 2026, puzzle No. 566

Welcome to Connections: Sports Edition Coach — a spot to gather clues and discuss (and share) scores.

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Apr 12 • 12:00 AM EDT • Sports • nytimes.com
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Today's NYT Connections: Sports Edition Hints, Answers for April 12 #566

Here's today's Connections: Sports Edition answer and hints for groups. These clues will help you solve The New York Times' popular puzzle game, Connections: Sports Edition, every day.

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Apr 11 • 10:48 PM EDT • Sports • cnet.com
Protecting Taxpayers Means Looking Beyond the Politics of Short-Term Rentals

Santa Barbara is on the verge of making a consequential decision about short-term rentals — but without first answering a basic question: What will it cost?

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Apr 11 • 10:41 PM EDT • Politics • independent.com
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This accessory lets you play Switch 2 games on your iPad or iMac display at 4K resolution

Apple has included excellent display panels on iMacs for years, but for the longest time, there hasn’t really been a...

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Apr 11 • 9:34 PM EDT • Technology • 9to5mac.com
Two First-Party Switch 2 Ratings Have Been Spotted

We're ready when you are, Nintendo

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Apr 11 • 9:05 PM EDT • Technology • nintendolife.com
10 minutes backstage with David Lee Roth at Coachella

INDIO, Calif. — David Lee Roth popped out at the Coachella Valley and Arts Festival on Friday to sing Van Halen's classic "Jump" with Teddy Swims. After the show, we

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Apr 11 • 8:37 PM EDT • Entertainment • recorderonline.com
Late-Inning Pushes Lift Shenandoah Past Lynchburg in Doubleheader Sweep

The University of Lynchburg softball team dropped both ends of an ODAC doubleheader against Shenandoah on Friday at Moon Field, falling 11-7 in game one and 6-5 in game two.

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Apr 11 • 7:08 PM EDT • Sports • lynchburgsports.com
Get on ‘board’ with Aspen’s charcuterie board business

Borde + Kurv offers handmade boards, along with baskets, spanning everything from brunch to charcuterie to dessert — with thoughtfully sourced and mostly local produce evoking European flavor and tradition.

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Apr 11 • 7:00 PM EDT • Business • aspentimes.com
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Fury dominates Makhmudov and calls out Joshua next

Tyson Fury marks his return to the heavyweight mix with a composed points win over Arslanbek Makhmudo, before immediately turning ringside to call out Anthony Joshua.

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Apr 11 • 6:30 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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South Carolina sweeps Mizzou in battle of SEC bottom dwellers

The Tigers put up a two-out ninth inning rally, but they fell short in their 6-4 loss to the Gamecocks on Saturday.

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Apr 11 • 6:30 PM EDT • Sports • columbiamissourian.com
Nearly 100 Colorado businesses have left or scaled back operations since 2019, report finds

A new report from the Colorado Chamber Foundation suggests the state’s weakening competitiveness is driving businesses out of state. Companies are blaming factors like increasing regulations and cost of living for why they’re choosing to...

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Apr 11 • 6:07 PM EDT • Business • summitdaily.com
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ON THE JOB: “What is the Best Business Advice You’ve Ever Received?

Interviews by Deborah Jeanne Sergeant Sound advice can contribute to your success. We recently asked area business leaders, what was their best advice they’d ever received. Here’s what they said: “The best advice I ever received was from my then –boss, Gerry Church, Fulton plant manager at Miller Brewing Co. He told me that whenever I wanted to discuss a business problem or issue with him, I should also be prepared to offer possible solutions. It’s the difference between being proactive or reactive. It’s also the difference between being a leader or follower. That has served me well in any business relationship I have had since then.” — Stephen Chirello, Owner, Steve Chirello Advertising, Fulton “Someone will always do it for less; they will also take the most effort to service or satisfy and leave you for the next lower price.” — John M. Henry, Owner, Speedway Press, Mitchell Printing, Phoenix Press, Oswego “I’m going to answer this question by turning it around and giving my own advice that is, ‘Always treat every customer as if they were your only customer!’ We are celebrating our 50th anniversary in business this year. We started our business on March 25, 1976. My advice works.”” — Nick Chervinsky, President, Brewerton Pharmacy, Brewerton “’You need to toot your own horn, my grandfather, Howard D. Dice, told me.” — Beth Ann Dice, Women’s active aging and cancer recovery coach, Mission Movement Wellness Studio & Breast Cancer Recovery Studio, Fulton “In the micro enterprise class, they taught, ‘Get a good lawyer, accountant and bank.’ That was over 30 years ago and I still have those three today. I chose good people I could grow with.” — Tony Pauldine, Owner, Anthony M. Pauldine General Contractors Inc., Oswego “From my grandfather; ‘Listen to everyone! You never know where you will get the solution you need.’” — Kevin Dean, Executive director, Oswego County Opportunities, Fulton “‘Preparation is the mother of success.’ My dad always drilled that into my head growing up, and it has helped me avoid a lot of snags in both my personal and professional life. Thanks, Dad!” — Bekkah Frisch, Owner and president, iHeart Holdings, Inc., Fulton “If you don’t take a risk and try, you will never know.” — Justin Taber, Owner, Torbitt’s Service Center, Oswego “Be ready to take a loss.” — Cody Seymour, Manager, Damiano’s Eatery, Mexico “I’ve received so much good business advice over the years. When people are giving you advice, always be curious rather than judgmental. Follow your gut. Doing the right thing is never the wrong thing.” — Dana Decker, Principal owner/broker, Berkshire Hathaway Home Services, Oswego ’Do it and figure it out later.’ It hasn’t failed me yet. Too many people take time to think about doing this and this and this and then the opportunity is over with. If it’s somewhat reasonable — if it’s not something outrageous — do it and figure it out later.” — Jeremy Allen, Licensed real estate salesperson, Acropolis Realty Group, Syracuse “’Try to meet the needs of the customer. Treat them like you’d like to be treated.’ It’s like the Golden Rule says.” — Douglas Dickson, Physician and associate at CNY Foot Surgery and Podiatry Care, East Syracuse “The best piece of business advice I’ve ever received applies to life in general: always be honest. Never overstate your capabilities and always be willing to ask questions. The more specific you can be in any given topic will always lead to a better outcome.” — Tom Fernandez, President, Woodbine Hospitality, Syracuse “As a business owner, the advice would be ‘Don’t overextend yourself. Especially in agriculture, expect issues to come up.’ If something is going right, it’s not true agriculture. This last season, we scaled very hard to field another crew. We got more drones, crew and generators based on projections. This last season hit the ag community hard with a very wet spring. We did 15,000 to 20,000 acres for fungicide and the same for cover crop seeding in 2024. We scaled to 25,000 to 30,000 for 2025. We ended up doing 2,000 for fungicide and 3,000 for cover crop seeding. That’s why that advice was good.” — Rick Jordan, Operations manager, CNY Drove Services, Clinton “’Keep your head down, mind your own business and do the best for your clients that you can do.’ It has a lot to do with my success in working for Galloway Century 21.” — Ed Fayette, New York state licensed real estate agent, Century 21 Galloway, Oswego “’Expand in all ways, always.’ It just keeps you going and keeps you growing.” — Stephen Baier, Licensed real estate person, The Real Estate Agency & Bouck Commercial, Auburn “The best advice is, ‘Your biggest asset you won’t see on the books because it comes from your employees.’” — David Flickinger, Owner, Edible Arrangements, Syracuse “Don’t take things personally when you’re working with the public.” — Leeann Desimone, Manager, Annie’s Hallmark Shop, Auburn “‘Follow up.’ The customer knows that you care about what you are doing and that their opinion counts. Sometimes they might be on the fence about whether they want to use your company. If they’re asking your opinion on things, they feel you are concerned about what you’re doing. They like to be kept in the loop if they’re spending money with you.” — Dorothy Casper, Saslesperson, SweetWoods Memorials, Phoenix “The best business advice I received is ‘Never be the smartest person in the room. Surround yourself with people who are smarter than you.’ That’s how you learn.” — Debbie Bilello, Owner, Virtual Office Solutions, Central Square “’You need to grow your business but you can’t grow too big too fast.’ That’s what we’ve done at Pinnacle Maintenance. We’ve tried to grow but not too fast. Along those same lines, there’s another good piece of advice, ‘Don’t take on more than you can handle because it only leads to a bad name for your business and a bad experience for your customers.’ It goes along the same lines as growing your business slowly and carefully.” — David Wines, Owner, Pinnacle Maintenance, Central Square “Always be on time and do what you say you are going to do.’ I’ve done very well following that advice. Most of my work is referral and I don’t really do any advertising so I have a pretty good customer base. It’s mostly word-of-mouth from satisfied customers.” — Robert J. Fleming, Owner, Bob Fleming Windows & Doors, Brewerton “’Concentrate on your finances, always pay your taxes, and form a team you can depend on. Try to help the community you’re in as much as you can.’ We do all of these all the time here. We give and give and give to the community and the community gives back to us always.” — Susan Bonnet, Co-owner, Bonnet Sales and Service, Central Square “Keep smiling. It brings a positive attitude to the workplace.” — Karin Lindsley, Vice president, DTS Truck Service, Syracuse “‘Customer service above all.’ Following this advice has served us very well.’ — Guy Fox, Owner, Fox’s Discount Parts, West Monroe “The best thing to do is to make sure you’re taking in more money than you’re spending. I wish I could say I’m a good businessman but I have been in business since 1981. I’m not a bean counter but work well with my hands and its’s served me well all these years and I am still in business.” — Matt McGill, Owner, Matt McGill Collision, Brewerton

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Apr 11 • 4:39 PM EDT • Business • oswegocountybusiness.com
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Chamber of Commerce Presents Achievement Awards

Event also marked 110th of the chamber’s presence in Oswego [caption id=attachment_10469 align=alignright width=450] Abby Waever and Keara Patterson (in the middle) receive the Community Leadership & Legacy Award, presented to The Alberts Group.[/caption] The Greater Oswego-Fulton Chamber of Commerce (GOFCC) on March 4 hosted its 2026 Annual Meeting, presented by Constellation, at the Lake Ontario Event and Conference Center in Oswego. The event’s theme, Rooted in Community. The meeting celebrated the GOFCC’s 110th anniversary in the Oswego community and 10th anniversary of integration with CenterState CEO. The chamber also unveiled a new logo. “I am proud to say the GOFCC has been a force for business success, growth and opportunity, supporting organizations of every size, connecting neighbors and entrepreneurs and ensuring that every voice in Oswego County is heard,” said GOFCC Executive Director Sara Broadwell. The event featured keynote remarks from Novelis’s Kevin Schutt, vice president, manufacturing and production support at Novelis North America. [caption id=attachment_10454 align=alignright width=450] Maria Hudson of Constellation, holding the award, receives the Nancy L. Premo Woman of Distinction Award.[/caption] The GOFCC recognized the following organizations and individuals with achievement awards: • Oswego County Impact & Excellence Award, presented to Oswego County Office of Mobility Management. This award Honors a small business or nonprofit organization that demonstrates outstanding achievement through innovation, growth and measurable positive impact on Oswego County’s economy or quality of life. • Community Leadership & Legacy Award, presented to The Alberts Group. This award recognizes an individual, business or organization whose long-term leadership, investment or philanthropy has significantly advanced the vitality, resilience and future of Oswego County’s communities. • Nancy L. Premo Woman of Distinction Award, presented to Maria Hudson of Constellation. This award honors a woman in business who has made a meaningful impact on her community, inspired others through her leadership, and exemplified the values of service, integrity and empowerment. This award is presented in tribute to the late Nancy Premo, CenterState CEO’s former vice president of Human Resources.

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Apr 11 • 4:39 PM EDT • Business • oswegocountybusiness.com
Seniors: Dennis Ouellette, 80

Ontario Orchards owner not slowing down as he grows his farm market By Stefan Yablonski The seeds for Dennis Ouellette’s career path were sown when he was 6 years old — and he isn’t slowing down. “Since age 6, I grew up an agriculturalist. That is 72 years. Started out with a 37-acre farm when I bought it from my parents and built it up to almost 300 acres. Brought it back down to around 200 acres now,” he said. The location of his business was just a barn, a horse barn, he said. “In 1967, it officially became Ontario Orchards Farm Market. My wife [June] and I graduated [high school] in 1964 and three years later we became Ontario Orchards. We have been here more than 60 years,” he explained. “It is the same location. We have expanded over the years as the customers mentioned different things; we have expanded to bring in different products. “What keeps me going is I totally enjoy what I am doing. I enjoy the people that I work with. The customers are wonderful. Mostly, more important than anything, is my family — my wife, my daughters, grandchildren, son-in-law — we are still very much a family business I’m not going to retire just yet.” He also enjoys the changing seasons. “Ontario Orchards is a four-season business. There is always something new; more energy, more interest. Not only for the business but for my staff, the people that work here. Things keep changing, changing. We are always looking forward to something new and exciting,” he said. They work with quite a number of local farmers within the area and throughout the state, throughout the country and from around the world.” “We do have things from different countries around the world. But specifically, we are very excited about the local. We have an over 200-acre farm. We sell just about everything we raise on that farm right here at the farm market. For example, we press cider year-round. We make baked goods every day, year-round. We sell our apples 12 months a year.” “Today, there are so many products in Ontario Orchards that we never would have thought of in 1967,” he continued. “I attribute a lot of that to my daughters. I like the young blood and new energy. That is very crucial to a business, it keeps it vibrant.” What’s his favorite part of the job? “I don’t have a favorite part. I enjoy it all. I have a lot of intertest in other things,” he said. “I have staff that knows so much. I can go to the staff and say, ‘I don’t know what this is, you tell me what this is.’ They are so knowledgeable. It is impossible for one person to know everything in this place. In the summer, staff is about 60; in the winter about 20, 25.” He added that he plans on being around for several more years.

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Apr 11 • 4:39 PM EDT • Business • oswegocountybusiness.com
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Seniors: John Lemp, 70

Has been working for more than 50 years in the business — M. Lemp Jewelers in Syracuse — that his great-grandfather started in 1890 By Mary Beth Roach Don Lemp owns and represents the fourth-generation of the family business, M. Lemp Jewelers, but he still calls himself “a counter guy.” “I love interacting with couples. It’s a wonderful business. You’re celebrating marriages, engagements, births, anniversaries — all these different significant moments that people invite you into their lives for whatever brief period of time it might be to help them celebrate whatever their important occasion is,” he said. This is one of several reasons why Lemp, at 70, has been working for more than 50 years in the business that his great-grandfather started in 1890. Always located in the downtown Syracuse area, the store has been situated in the building that the family owns on East Fayette and Warren streets since 1971. He jokes that he’s been in the business so long he is now selling engagement rings to the second generation in some families. He also loves the opportunity to learn about the ever-changing industry and gemstones. “You have to know not only diamonds, but all the colored stones, from A to Z, from andalusite to zircons,” he said. Lemp said he had originally thought he wanted to become an attorney, but while working part-time in the store while attending college at Syracuse University, he decided to follow in the family business. His father, Walter D. Lemp Sr., and his mother tried to discourage their son from pursuing retail, reminding him of the hectic hours and lifestyle intrinsic in this business. But the younger Lemp [whose full name is Walter D. Lemp Jr.] prevailed. So, over the years, father and son got to work together in the family business for 35 years. And while many other jewelers retreated from downtown to suburban malls in the 1970s, the Lemps decided to stay downtown. And it’s a decision that Lemp Jr. feels it has worked out well. As he explained, downtown Syracuse is seeing a rebirth. One website, Point2Home.com, has noted that more than 6,000 people live there and the median income is about $62,000. In addition, according to the website that Lemp built years ago, the store can cater to customers throughout the country. His customers, whether from across the country or across Onondaga County, are just one reason that Lemp stays engaged in the business. His employees, the opportunity to continue to learn in an industry, and the challenge to continue to improve business are all other reasons, he noted. He’s also been able to travel to India to buy diamonds and he enjoys buying and selling estates. “I’d rather gallop in the corral than ride into the sunset,” Lemp said.

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Apr 11 • 4:39 PM EDT • Business • oswegocountybusiness.com
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Seniors: Carol Watson, 72

Owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping in LaFayette enjoys her growing business — still puts in six-, seven-day weeks By Mary Beth Roach Carol Watson, the owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping, has been in gardens since she could walk. Literally. She said she learned to walk in her grandfather’s garden, which was next door to her current home and business in LaFayette. Today, at 72, she is running the business that her mother, Claire, opened in 1981 as Watson Greenhouse. Watson worked part-time for her mom until 1990, when she joined her full time. While she may not have had any formal horticultural experience, she said she learned so much about growing and raising plants from her mom, who had an abundance of energy and talent. Now, after 35 years in the business full time, Watson has no plans to retire, although she joked that she’d like a couple of days off a week. On her seven-acre site, complete with four greenhouses, Watson said her favorite parts of the job are working with and educating her customers; helping some of her young customers build terrariums; conducting occasional class field trips; and supporting local art by decorating the shop with an eclectic mix of pottery from at least four area craftspeople. A one-time employee of the former Dey Bros. department store in Syracuse, Watson said she loves merchandising and enjoys displaying unique pieces of art on shelves and even suspending from ceilings. “We’re creative. We also had top quality plants. We got a reputation of quality plants and unusual products,” she said. It’s tending to her customers and her plants, showcasing the unusual products, and hosting special events to benefit the community that keep her motivated to work six to seven days a week. “I just love it. I love taking care of the plants. I’m one of the few people that really enjoys watering,” she said. And while she has cultivated a solid customer base over the years, she remains savvy in her marketing efforts to draw in new customers. For example, she does a gardening segment on CNY Central television; her active Facebook page has thousands of followers; and she hosts a number of unique events and classes that not only introduce her shop to potential new clients, but some benefit nonprofits as well. About 13 years ago, when the local symphony orchestra was struggling, she said she wanted to help. So, partnering with the group, she began offering concerts, called Soirees, featuring the Syracuse Orchestra’s string quartet. Following up on a suggestion from a customer whose brother is a deejay in retirement, specializing in sock hops, she hosted the greenhouse’s first sock hop. Plants got moved back toward the walls to make room for dancing; a caterer was brought in, offering diner-like food; guests came in period outfits; and proceeds went to the Food Bank of CNY. She is excited about doing it again in October. Via her website, she promotes the greenhouse as an “oasis in the snow,” offering visitors the opportunity to pick up some decorating and gift ideas while taking in the floral and citrus scents. And she also caters to her four-legged friends. Over this past winter, she said, she came up with a “brilliant idea,” although at the time she didn’t appreciate just how brilliant it would become. Feeling it too cold outside to take her dog for a walk, she opted to bring it into the greenhouse. And before long, she was inviting people to bring their dogs into the big greenhouse as well. She looks forward to extending that invitation again this upcoming winter season. For Watson and her customers, the greenhouse is always in season.

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Apr 11 • 4:39 PM EDT • Business • oswegocountybusiness.com
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If You Visit JoJo’s Diner, Bring Your Appetite

By Stefan Yablonski Q: When did you open? A: We opened Oct. 1. Q: Did you have a previous business? A: This is my first business ever. Q: So why did you start this? A: I was cooking for people my entire life and I decided I’m just going to try it on my own. And here we are! Q: How’s business been? A: It’s been good. Kind of slow over the winter, but starting to pick up now that the weather is getting better. We have high hopes for spring. We were really hopping over the weekend when it was much nicer out. Q: What’s your best dish? A: Our junkyard plates are our huge specialty. It’s a huge messy plate of goodness. We also have breakfast sandwiches, waffles, smashburgers and more. Q: Do you own this building? A: We lease from Chuck Burger. He’s our landlord. He has been super helpful. He provided all the equipment. I didn’t have to. Q: You’re a breakfast spot? A: We do breakfast and lunch all day. It’s kind of our thing. We are open 7-3 every day except Tuesdays. Q: How big is your staff? A: Currently it’s one other person. It’s just been me on the front end and someone in the kitchen or vice versa. Q: It’s all to go? A: Everything comes out ‘to go’ — served in to-go containers. You can eat inside or you can take it with you. We don’t have to provide extra staff for waitresses and dishwashers and all that. Q: Do you have any business background? A: I did the small business program at the college. But that’s about it. We’re new, but we’re still building. We hope to grow and stay here for a long time.

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Apr 11 • 4:39 PM EDT • Business • oswegocountybusiness.com
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Trump Admin Seeks Sweeping Access to Federal Workers’ Health Records

The administration’s access to medical histories raises privacy concerns over abortion and transgender care records.

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Apr 11 • 3:21 PM EDT • Health • truthout.org
Defiant Swalwell still sees a path to victory in governor's race

So far, Swalwell is casting the allegations against him as a political conspiracy to take down the frontrunner for the governor’s office.

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Apr 11 • 2:27 PM EDT • Politics • sfchronicle.com
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U.S. Moves to Deport Son of Prominent Figure in Iranian Revolution

Federal agents arrested a man whose mother served as a spokeswoman for the Islamist embassy captors during the hostage crisis that began in 1979.

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Apr 11 • 1:56 PM EDT • Politics • nytimes.com
Crash Ends Heim’s $500K Bid at Bristol

Multi-truck incident with 70 laps left derails Triple Truck Challenge sweep

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Apr 11 • 1:44 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
I changed my embarrassing Gmail username without losing anything, and you can too

Google now lets Gmail users switch to a new address while keeping the old one as an alias — here's how!

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Apr 11 • 12:51 PM EDT • Technology • androidcentral.com
New to The Street to Broadcast on Fox Business on Monday, April 13, Featuring Virtuix Holdings...

The show will air as sponsored programming nationwide at 10:30 PM PST on Fox Business Network

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Apr 11 • 12:35 PM EDT • Business • theolympian.com
New to The Street to Broadcast on Fox Business on Monday, April 13, Featuring Virtuix Holdings...

The show will air as sponsored programming nationwide at 10:30 PM PST on Fox Business Network

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Apr 11 • 12:35 PM EDT • Business • sacbee.com
New to The Street to Broadcast on Fox Business on Monday, April 13, Featuring Virtuix Holdings...

The show will air as sponsored programming nationwide at 10:30 PM PST on Fox Business Network

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Apr 11 • 12:35 PM EDT • Business • heraldonline.com
'Not about politics': Miami Beach unveils repurposed rainbow crosswalk installation

Pride is back on display in Miami Beach, as city leaders unveiled a new installation repurposing the bricks from the former Ocean Drive rainbow crosswalk.

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Apr 11 • 12:18 PM EDT • Politics • cbs12.com
“AI polls” are fake polls

A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.

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Apr 11 • 11:38 AM EDT • Technology • natesilver.net
Apple Highlights Photos Shot on iPhone During NASA's Mission to Moon

As we previously reported, astronauts aboard NASA's Orion spacecraft used the iPhone 17 Pro Max to take selfies of themselves with the Earth in the background during the Artemis II mission around the far side of the Moon last week. Now that the crew members have safely returned to Earth, Apple's CEO Tim Cook and marketing chief Greg Joswiak have both turned to social media to congratulate them on their successful mission and highlight the iPhone's involvement.

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Apr 11 • 11:17 AM EDT • Technology • macrumors.com