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Shaky political science: using "simulated" elections over real-world elections
[Dear DSOS readers – this article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in early December, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting. We found that many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data, and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first three articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report, the second one analyzing a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report, and a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research]. In this fourth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we shine a spotlight on seven studies that were web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group (the ERRG is an ad hoc committee headed by New America’s Political Reform Program and joined by the American Enterprise Institute, the Unite America Institute and Stanford University’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law). This research consortium has been led by Lee Drutman, senior fellow with New America’s Political Reform Program. These seven studies are simply not credible from any objective standard about how political “science” is supposed to illuminate our understanding of either ranked choice voting or politics in general. The feature that six of these seven studies have in common is that they all used surveys – artificial, simulated elections -- to attempt to say something cogent or interesting about ranked choice voting (RCV) elections. None of them used real world data from actual RCV elections – either the 1000+ elections in the US or the many thousands of elections from places like Australia, Ireland and elsewhere where RCV has been used for 100 years. While a few of these studies conclude with some mixed positives about RCV, our analysis here is content neutral. The idea that, with a political reform like RCV, you can ask respondents in a mock, artificial election to vote with that method, with only the barest of explanation about how RCV works or its likely impacts (i.e. no spoiler candidates, majority winners, voters liberated to pick their favorite candidates, coalition-building), and then ask them their thoughts/reactions about voting in that system, with fake candidates and no real campaigning, no real exposure to an actual election or actual candidates, rests on some very puzzling assumptions. The findings of these seven studies actually are contradicted by the findings from many other studies based on real-world RCV elections. These New America studies also failed to list the real-world RCV studies in their own citations, instead including those studies that reinforced their conclusions. The seven studies featured in this article were chosen because they form a cohesive cohort which precisely illustrates one of the main points of our research paper, namely that using surveys, i.e. artificial elections, or mathematical/theoretical models, instead of real-world data, is in fact “shaky political science.” Below are summaries of our analysis of five of the seven New America studies. You can read our complete analysis of all seven studies at our paper, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting.” Choosing to “Vote As Usual” by Andre Blais, Carolina Plescia, and Semra Sevi. New America. (Blais et al., 2021). This study, web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group, used two surveys in which respondents completed ballots for simulated elections using plurality, approval, RCV and point (Score) voting. In both cases the authors provided the respondents with only minimal explanation of each method. For example, the entire explanation for RCV was “For this vote, rank the candidates from your first to your last choice (you do not need to rank them all). This is called the ranked vote.” That’s it. The study did not provide any context or explanation to survey respondents about why she/he might want to rank multiple candidates. Participants were not even told that ballots would be tabulated using an “instant” runoff, not to mention any description of RCVs ability to eliminate the spoiler effect or liberate voters to rank their favorite candidates without fear of helping the “greater evil” candidate to win. That’s like taking an iPhone back in time to 1970 and asking someone if they like it better than their rotary phone without explaining how it works. Their first survey targeted states that held 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries and used the real candidates’ names in the survey; the second survey used fictitious candidates. In other words, they surveyed respondents who had only ever participated in plurality elections, had no history or background with using RCV or any of the other methods, had no clue about its likely impacts, and did not communicate how the alternative methods would be counted, and then asked them: “How satisfied are you with using each system?” Predictably, the winner was plurality elections, the system used for president, Congress, gubernatorial and state legislative elections – in other words, the method they have been using, year after year, all their voting lives. With so little explanation of RCV and its impacts, this study is simply not credible in discovering anything useful about real-world RCV elections. It merely shows that a basic voter education campaign is needed when adopting a new election system. Additionally, the result contradicts many other post-election surveys following real RCV elections, asking opinions from voters who had just participated in a RCV election, that showed a great deal of satisfaction with RCV (see details on that in Studies 22-25 in our paper, as well as the four studies cited in the review for Study 28). Share Other studies on “satisfaction” and “understanding” make similar mistakes, in terms of basing their surveys on inadequate explanation to respondents and lack of education about context. How could any survey ever hope to measure accurately, in essence simulate a real-world election, without actual campaigning candidates, the media writing about those candidates, organizations endorsing candidates and voters being inundated with crucial information? More than anything, what these “studies” based on surveys show is that if you ask voters about something they don’t know very much about, and fail to adequately educate them, their responses will unsurprisingly reflect their confusion. Equally puzzling is that New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group, headed by political scientist Lee Drutman, found this to be a credible enough study that they not only published it but highlighted it in Drutman’s own discussion of research related to ranked choice voting. This pattern was repeated in study after study featured by New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group. For example in Ranked-Choice Voting and Political Expression: Voter Guides Narrow the Gap between Informed and Uninformed Citizens by Cheryl Boudreau, Jonathan Colner, and Scott MacKenzie, the researchers based their analysis on a survey which found that respondents who were asked to vote in a simulated RCV election, with minimal explanation of RCV or how it works, displayed less evidence of being informed about how to use RCV effectively, with the least informed voters ranking fewer candidates. As pointed out under the study above, in a real election voters are informed by a wide variety of methods, including public education by the election administration, by interested political groups, the media, and the candidates themselves who benefit from voters being aware of how to vote in the new system. In Support for Ranked-Choice Voting across Race and Partisanship by Joseph Anthony, David C. Kimball, Jack Santucci and Jamil Scott, the researchers used respondents from different parties and races voting in simulated plurality and RCV elections, who indicated their satisfaction with each voting method. Instead of using real world election results, the authors fell back on the easy, armchair and less reliable academic research methodology of making up mock elections. As with the other studies, little explanation was given of how RCV works or what its implications might be (electing majority winners or eliminating spoilers, for example). Unsurprisingly, this study found that respondents were not very satisfied with RCV. However, when the authors added an explanation that RCV has a tendency to elect more women and people of color, they found that this greater explanation increased the preference for RCV. The more voters were familiar with it, and the more they understood potential positive impacts – surprise! -- the more they were open to switching away from the status quo. Of note, the results from this study are thoroughly contradicted by a number of other studies whose data was obtained from real RCV elections with real voters. Those studies show a great deal of satisfaction with RCV. More “fake election” research An interesting wrinkle on this “research by fake elections” approach, which only served to illustrate how unreliable such “research” can become, was taken in Ranked-Choice Voting, Runoff, and Democracy: Insights from Maine and Other U.S. States by Joseph Cerrone and Cynthia McClintock_,_ also web-hosted and funded by New America’s ERRG. It gets high marks for creativity, but an eye-roll for thinking this could possibly add anything meaningful to our understanding of real world RCV elections. This study tried to determine whether RCV, plurality or two-round runoff elections provided greater voter satisfaction and acceptance of election results. To determine that, the authors conducted a survey asking if voters were satisfied with a fictional newspaper report of an election, with three different versions given to respondents – plurality, runoff and RCV, with variations of Republican/Democrat winners and variations of “come-from-behind” winners,” i.e. candidates not initially in first place but who win the “runoff.” Again, a minimal explanation of RCV or how it works was given, and the survey showed that respondents had the greatest unfamiliarity with RCV than the other methods. The unsurprising result? Respondents were much more satisfied with “come-from-behind” victories in a traditional two-round runoff election than in RCV, even though RCV is also a runoff system but with a single round of counting. Interestingly, the dissatisfaction with RCV disappeared for those who were more familiar with RCV. In fact, among those respondents who were “very familiar” with RCV, they were equally satisfied with RCV, runoff and plurality. Surprise, surprise. Again, what this study revealed, more than anything, is not only the inadequacy of the explanation for RCV given by the authors of this study, but the failure of the research format itself, thinking that such an artificial mock election could somehow simulate what actually happens in the real world in a real RCV election. Those four studies reviewed above are fitting examples of inadequate and shaky political “science.” Other studies reviewed in our paper from the New America/Electoral Reform Research Group cohort which also used mock elections included: Ranked-Choice Voting is an Acquired Taste by Joseph Anthony and David C. Kimball. New America. (Anthony et al., 2021). Ranked-Choice Voting is No Refuge for Extreme Candidates by Melissa Baker. New America. (Baker, 2021). Also included in this New America cohort is Does Ranked-Choice Voting Reduce Racial Polarization? by Yuki Atsusaka and Theodore Landsman, which actually did use real-world election results data but applied an odd and unconventional methodology to the data which relied on shaky assumptions and non-real-world scenarios that were too divorced from reality. To determine levels of “racially polarized voting,” the researchers imagined “ethnic parties,” by which they mean political parties for each ethnic group, which was especially odd since the election data they were using came from nonpartisan RCV races. But then they made an even odder assumption, namely that since race and ethnic characteristics of studied voters were not available, the authors tried to infer that information based on who voters selected and the racial make-up of voters in each district. This amounted to little more than vague and ambiguous guesswork dressed up with a bunch of mathematical equations used to give it a veneer of scientific appearance. Indeed, it seemed to assume racial polarization in order to prove racial polarization. Based on this questionable methodology, the authors concluded that RCV doesn’t reduce racial polarization. But the premise of this study missed an obvious reality: since RCV incentivizes more candidates to run and can result in more diverse fields of candidates, one would expect more racially-polarized voting in voters’ top rankings, not less, because more voters would have someone on that ballot who represents their racial or ethnic identity and more freedom to vote for their real first choice. By encouraging more diverse candidates and eliminating the spoiler effect, RCV facilitates voting for a favorite candidate of your own race and then selecting a second choice with the best likelihood of winning. The real measure is what voters do with their additional rankings – do they consider other candidates and vote “for the best of the rest”? This study didn’t tell us anything useful about that. But readily available data shows this is common in real RCV elections, and candidates act on this knowledge by engaging with voters outside their racial group. So the authors of this study failed to consider or account for what actually happens in real-world elections, and their conclusions are tainted by this failure. New America has contributed a great deal over the past 2.5 decades to our understanding of many policy areas, including politics and political reform (full disclosure: Steven Hill, one of the authors of this article and of the “Shaky Political Science” research paper and series, is a former senior fellow and former director of New America’s political reform program, 2005-2010). So it was especially disappointing that New America funded and published such a large batch of dubious studies about ranked choice voting. The stated praiseworthy goal of its Electoral Reform Research Group was to inspire new academic research about ranked choice voting that would shed light and help the public better understand the impacts of RCV. Instead, the ERRG research did just the opposite. It produced dubious research that created more confusion and misinformation. In so doing, New America’s political reform program contributed to “shaky political science.” Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS, a reader-supported digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe
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A former jewelry-counter magnate, he served in Hungary under his friend President Trump, strengthening relations between the two countries as Orban tilted rightward.
Wasabi to acquire Seagate's Lyve Cloud business
Wasabi to acquire Seagate's Lyve Cloud business - SiliconANGLE
Four-star QB recruit Davin Davidson is ready to commit
Davin Davidson, a four-star quarterback the Georgia Bulldogs are targeting, will commit on April 9 at 7:30 p.m. ET.
David Jolly to speak at National Action Network Convention, punctuating national momentum for Dems
Jolly is part of a slate of speakers that includes possible 2028 presidential candidates.
Masters 2026 odds, picks, predictions, favorites: Expert fading Rory McIlroy at Augusta National
SportsLine golf expert David Bearman just locked in his predictions for the 2026 Masters at Augusta National Golf Club with Tiger Woods (personal) not in the field
Map of LACMA's David Geffen Galleries: the cafe, wine bar, Koons art
A colorful map to help guide visitors around LACMA's new David Geffen Galleries, including the best way to the wine bar and how to get a great view of Jeff Koons' 'Split-Rocker' topiary sculpture.
Fiesta Sports Foundation Names Nick Smith Board Chair, David Dorward Chair-Elect and Adds Two New Board Members
As Fiesta Sports Foundation continues to build on its legacy as one of Arizona's premier nonprofit organizations and a cornerstone of the college football community, it has named Nick Smith as Board Chair for the 2026-27 and 2027-28 seasons. In addition, the Foundation welcomed two accomplished executives to its Board of Directors, with the addition of LUV Car Wash Chief Financial Officer Jim Kebert and Levine Investments attorney Lisa Bullington. Starting a two-year term as Chair-Elect is Merrill Lynch Managing Director David Dorward, while Judy Bernas will serve as Chair Emeritus after completing her two-year term as Board Chair.
After Emily Gregory nod, 22 more Palm Beach County leaders back David Jolly for Governor
Jolly’s campaign says the growing list of local endorsements reflects a broader coalition taking shape in a county seen as key to any statewide victory.
Cleveland Browns NFL Draft Profile: DE David Bailey, Texas Tech
Could the Browns add a high-impact DE in the draft to pair with Myles Garrett? Should they?
Sporting 0-1 Arsenal: Kai Havertz scores in stoppage time to clinch Champions League quarter-final first-leg win
Match report as Kai Havertzs 91st-minute goal clinches a 1-0 win for Arsenal in the first leg of their Champions League quarter-final against Sporting; David Raya made several vital saves; Gunners welcome Sporting to Emirates Stadium for second leg next week
Masters 2026 odds, picks, predictions, favorites: Expert fading Rory McIlroy at Augusta National
SportsLine golf expert David Bearman just locked in his predictions for the 2026 Masters at Augusta National Golf Club with Tiger Woods (personal) not in the field
2026 UConn Health Board of Directors Faculty Recognition Awardee is Dr. David Shafer
Shafer is associate professor and chair of oral and maxillofacial surgery
Former interim CEO is returning to run HCMC’s cash-strapped health system
Dr. Jon Cumming is expected to succeed David Hough, who is stepping down as administrator.
NFL Draft rumors: Jets rethinking No. 2 pick, Ohio State could own top five, Bain and Tyson falling?
With less than three weeks until the draft, these latest rumors are shaping the board
Masters 2026 odds, picks, predictions, favorites: Expert fading Rory McIlroy at Augusta National
SportsLine golf expert David Bearman just locked in his predictions for the 2026 Masters at Augusta National Golf Club with Tiger Woods (personal) not in the field
Is David Jolly riding an off-shore blue wave? His Q1 fundraising suggests momentum is building
Jolly still trails Republican Byron Donalds — by a lot — but he has upped his game since 2 surprise Special Election victories.
The controlled fairway-finder drive every golfer needs
GOLF Top 100 Teacher David Armitage breaks down the five keys you need to master the low, controlled fairway-finder drive.
2026 Distinguished Lecture Series in Materials Science and Engineering
The Distinguished Lecture Series in Materials Science and Engineering at Penn State will be held in April and will include two Richard E. Tressler Award Lectures in Materials and the David Ford McFarland Award Lecture for Achievement in Metallurgy.
Lavonte David gives blunt assessment Jalen Hurts after retirement
The Super Bowl winning quarterback has never been given his flowers and it doesn't seem they are coming anytime soon.
AI Sentience: How Michael Pollan Exposed Corruption in Consciousness Science
By David Stephen
Women’s basketball way-too-early 2026-27 power rankings, topped by USC
With JuJu Watkins back and set to team up with Jazzy Davidson and Saniyah Hall, USC tops the way-too-early women's college basketball power rankings.
March Madness Final Four live updates: How to watch, time, channel for Illinois vs. UConn, Arizona vs. Michigan
Get live updates from the men’s NCAA Final Four as March Madness continues. Follow the latest as UConn faces Illinois and Arizona plays Michigan.
David Judge obituary
Other lives: Leading scholar of parliamentary politics and democratic representation
Epi Minute 28: Staying Up to Date on Chickenpox
As vaccination rates decrease and exposure increases, more cases of chickenpox are reported in St. Louis. David Courtney, an epidemiologist with the City of St. Louis Department of Health, talks about how chickenpox spreads and symptoms to look for. More information can be found at stlouis-mo.gov/health.
Epi Minute 27: Learning About Mumps
David Courtney, an epidemiologist with the City of St. Louis Department of Health, talks about the signs and symptoms of mumps. The best way to prevent the disease is through vaccination. Find out more at stlouis-mo.gov/health.
IPL 2026: Abhishek Sharma scripts history, joins David Warner to....
Abhishek Sharma achieved a significant milestone for Sunrisers Hyderabad, becoming the second player to hit 100 sixes for the franchise. SRH secured their first IPL 2026 win by defeating Kolkata Knight Riders by 65 runs, defending a season-high total of 226/8 with a strong bowling performance.
North Carolina health officials discuss Davidson County Social Services takeover: ‘Care about the children, families of Davidson County’
DAVIDSON COUNTY, N.C. (WGHP) — Two and a half months since the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services took over the Davidson County office, leaders say promising changes are h…
Sunrisers beat KKR for first win of this year's IPL
Sunrisers Hyderabad earned their first win of this year's Indian Premier League by comfortably beating Kolkata Knight Riders by 65 runs at Eden Gardens. Travis Head and Abhishek Sharma put on 82 for the first wicket in just 5.4 overs and even though Australia's Head fell for 46 and India opener Abhishek 48, the visitors still posted 226-8 with South Africa's Heinrich Klaasen adding 52 from 35 balls. Gloucestershire left-armer David Payne conceded 25 from the first over of the chase as New Zealand opener Finn Allen flogged three fours and two sixes but the innings soon fell away.
LA Chargers help high school athletes learn lifesaving CPR
More than 250 high school student-athletes from across the Los Angeles Unified School District spent a day learning about heart health alongside Los Angeles Chargers players.Students learned hands-only CPR, met Chargers players Elijah Molden and RJ Mickens in UCLA Health Sports Performance Training, Powered by Exos, and enjoyed lunch on the patio at Huddle for Heart Health, held March 19 at The Bolt, the Chargers’ official practice facility in El Segundo. RJ Mickens, left, and Elijah Molden joined more than 250 LAUSD high school students at the Huddle for Heart Health event. (Photo courtesy of Joaquin Torre/Los Angeles Chargers) Along with learning CPR techniques, students practiced performance training on the LA Chargers practice field in El Segundo. (Photo courtesy of Joaquin Torre/Los Angeles Chargers) LA Chargers defensive back RJ Mickens visits with high school students at the Huddle for Heart Health event. (Photo courtesy of Joaquin Torre/Los Angeles Chargers) The event was presented by UCLA Health, the American Heart Association, the Los Angeles Chargers and LAUSD.Hands-only CPR is a lifesaving skill, said David Sato, MD, board president of the American Heart Association Los Angeles.“We save more lives when we work together,” said Dr. Sato. “This collaboration with UCLA Health and the Los Angeles Chargers to teach students how to perform hands-only CPR helps ensure more families in Los Angeles have someone ready to act in a cardiac emergency when seconds count.”Hands-only CPR is a lifesaving procedure for cardiac emergencies that doesn’t involve rescue breaths. It involves pressing hard and fast in the center of the chest of a teen or adult who has collapsed. Pressing can be done to the beat of the Bee Gee’s hit “Stayin' Alive, which, at 100 beats per minute, is the minimum rate at which to push during hands-only CPR, according to the American Heart Association. LA Chargers defensive back Elijah Molden, standing, helps high school students learn CPR skills. (Photo courtesy of Joaquin Torre/Los Angeles Chargers) Most cardiac arrests that don’t happen in the hospital happen at home, and hands-only CPR is as effective as CPR with breaths in the first minutes following a cardiac emergency.
Giannis Antetokounmpo Takes Stake in Beckham’s Health Firm IM8
Milwaukee Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo is taking an equity stake in IM8, co-founded by health-sciences firm Prenetics and former footballer David Beckham.
3 USC faculty members named fellows of prestigious science group
Yingying Fan, Matthew Pratt and Paul David Ronney are honored by the American Association for the Advancement of Science Fellows.
Real Madrid move closer to signing Premier League star
Real Madrid have plans to address multiple areas of Alvaro Arbeloa’s squad during the upcoming summer transfer window, with one of the pressing being centre-back. David Alaba will be leaving when hi...
The Chicago Blackhawks Are Closer to Contention Than They Seem
It has been another long year for the Chicago Blackhawks, but the new-look squad is closer to contention than ever. The Blackhawks are slated to finish the season with the most points in the standings they’ve had since the 2019-2020 season. This would also be the best season under the Kyle Davidson regime, which took […] The post The Chicago Blackhawks Are Closer to Contention Than They Seem appeared first on The Lead.
Brian Ballard testifies he previously warned David Rivera's firm about disclosure concerns with Venezuela work
The prominent lobbyist testified against the ex-Congressman in a trial in South Florida.
Davids Visits Community Health Center, Highlights Medicaid Cuts’ Impact on Kansas Health Care Access
OTTAWA, KS — Today, Representative Sharice Davids visited Heartland Community Health Center’s Healthy Futures mobile dental program at Ottawa High School, which provides dental exams and cleanings to local students.
David vs Goliath: How locally owned Cactus Sports competes with official ASU merchandise sellers
Troy Scomas’ Cactus Sports has thrived for 30-plus years in Tempe , competing with official ASU merchandise stores by offering custom fan gear, personal service, and community connections.
David Silverberg steps away from notepad to run for Kathleen Passidomo's Senate seat
The Paradise Progressive founder hopes this is the cycle that Southwest Florida will elect a Democrat.
Deus Ex developer Eidos Montréal announces mass job cuts, alongside departure of studio head David Anfossi
Eidos Montréal has announced another round of layoffs affecting 124 employees, alongside the departure of studio head, David Anfossi.
Eidos-Montréal announces 124 job cuts; studio head David Anfossi departs after 19 years at developer
Decision made following "changing project needs and impacts across production and support teams"
Deus Ex Studio Eidos Montreal Is In Trouble After Fresh Layoffs
David Anfossi has departed Eidos Montreal amid the massive cuts
Your guide to the biggest casino shows hitting the region now
Pete Davidson, SatchVai and more headline a packed early April entertainment lineup at casinos in NorCal and Nevada.