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Shaky political science: using "simulated" elections over real-world elections

[Dear DSOS readers – this article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in early December, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting. We found that many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data, and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first three articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report, the second one analyzing a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report, and a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research]. In this fourth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we shine a spotlight on seven studies that were web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group (the ERRG is an ad hoc committee headed by New America’s Political Reform Program and joined by the American Enterprise Institute, the Unite America Institute and Stanford University’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law). This research consortium has been led by Lee Drutman, senior fellow with New America’s Political Reform Program. These seven studies are simply not credible from any objective standard about how political “science” is supposed to illuminate our understanding of either ranked choice voting or politics in general. The feature that six of these seven studies have in common is that they all used surveys – artificial, simulated elections -- to attempt to say something cogent or interesting about ranked choice voting (RCV) elections. None of them used real world data from actual RCV elections – either the 1000+ elections in the US or the many thousands of elections from places like Australia, Ireland and elsewhere where RCV has been used for 100 years. While a few of these studies conclude with some mixed positives about RCV, our analysis here is content neutral. The idea that, with a political reform like RCV, you can ask respondents in a mock, artificial election to vote with that method, with only the barest of explanation about how RCV works or its likely impacts (i.e. no spoiler candidates, majority winners, voters liberated to pick their favorite candidates, coalition-building), and then ask them their thoughts/reactions about voting in that system, with fake candidates and no real campaigning, no real exposure to an actual election or actual candidates, rests on some very puzzling assumptions. The findings of these seven studies actually are contradicted by the findings from many other studies based on real-world RCV elections. These New America studies also failed to list the real-world RCV studies in their own citations, instead including those studies that reinforced their conclusions. The seven studies featured in this article were chosen because they form a cohesive cohort which precisely illustrates one of the main points of our research paper, namely that using surveys, i.e. artificial elections, or mathematical/theoretical models, instead of real-world data, is in fact “shaky political science.” Below are summaries of our analysis of five of the seven New America studies. You can read our complete analysis of all seven studies at our paper, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting.” Choosing to “Vote As Usual” by Andre Blais, Carolina Plescia, and Semra Sevi. New America. (Blais et al., 2021). This study, web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group, used two surveys in which respondents completed ballots for simulated elections using plurality, approval, RCV and point (Score) voting. In both cases the authors provided the respondents with only minimal explanation of each method. For example, the entire explanation for RCV was “For this vote, rank the candidates from your first to your last choice (you do not need to rank them all). This is called the ranked vote.” That’s it. The study did not provide any context or explanation to survey respondents about why she/he might want to rank multiple candidates. Participants were not even told that ballots would be tabulated using an “instant” runoff, not to mention any description of RCVs ability to eliminate the spoiler effect or liberate voters to rank their favorite candidates without fear of helping the “greater evil” candidate to win. That’s like taking an iPhone back in time to 1970 and asking someone if they like it better than their rotary phone without explaining how it works. Their first survey targeted states that held 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries and used the real candidates’ names in the survey; the second survey used fictitious candidates. In other words, they surveyed respondents who had only ever participated in plurality elections, had no history or background with using RCV or any of the other methods, had no clue about its likely impacts, and did not communicate how the alternative methods would be counted, and then asked them: “How satisfied are you with using each system?” Predictably, the winner was plurality elections, the system used for president, Congress, gubernatorial and state legislative elections – in other words, the method they have been using, year after year, all their voting lives. With so little explanation of RCV and its impacts, this study is simply not credible in discovering anything useful about real-world RCV elections. It merely shows that a basic voter education campaign is needed when adopting a new election system. Additionally, the result contradicts many other post-election surveys following real RCV elections, asking opinions from voters who had just participated in a RCV election, that showed a great deal of satisfaction with RCV (see details on that in Studies 22-25 in our paper, as well as the four studies cited in the review for Study 28). Share Other studies on “satisfaction” and “understanding” make similar mistakes, in terms of basing their surveys on inadequate explanation to respondents and lack of education about context. How could any survey ever hope to measure accurately, in essence simulate a real-world election, without actual campaigning candidates, the media writing about those candidates, organizations endorsing candidates and voters being inundated with crucial information? More than anything, what these “studies” based on surveys show is that if you ask voters about something they don’t know very much about, and fail to adequately educate them, their responses will unsurprisingly reflect their confusion. Equally puzzling is that New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group, headed by political scientist Lee Drutman, found this to be a credible enough study that they not only published it but highlighted it in Drutman’s own discussion of research related to ranked choice voting. This pattern was repeated in study after study featured by New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group. For example in Ranked-Choice Voting and Political Expression: Voter Guides Narrow the Gap between Informed and Uninformed Citizens by Cheryl Boudreau, Jonathan Colner, and Scott MacKenzie, the researchers based their analysis on a survey which found that respondents who were asked to vote in a simulated RCV election, with minimal explanation of RCV or how it works, displayed less evidence of being informed about how to use RCV effectively, with the least informed voters ranking fewer candidates. As pointed out under the study above, in a real election voters are informed by a wide variety of methods, including public education by the election administration, by interested political groups, the media, and the candidates themselves who benefit from voters being aware of how to vote in the new system. In Support for Ranked-Choice Voting across Race and Partisanship by Joseph Anthony, David C. Kimball, Jack Santucci and Jamil Scott, the researchers used respondents from different parties and races voting in simulated plurality and RCV elections, who indicated their satisfaction with each voting method. Instead of using real world election results, the authors fell back on the easy, armchair and less reliable academic research methodology of making up mock elections. As with the other studies, little explanation was given of how RCV works or what its implications might be (electing majority winners or eliminating spoilers, for example). Unsurprisingly, this study found that respondents were not very satisfied with RCV. However, when the authors added an explanation that RCV has a tendency to elect more women and people of color, they found that this greater explanation increased the preference for RCV. The more voters were familiar with it, and the more they understood potential positive impacts – surprise! -- the more they were open to switching away from the status quo. Of note, the results from this study are thoroughly contradicted by a number of other studies whose data was obtained from real RCV elections with real voters. Those studies show a great deal of satisfaction with RCV. More “fake election” research An interesting wrinkle on this “research by fake elections” approach, which only served to illustrate how unreliable such “research” can become, was taken in Ranked-Choice Voting, Runoff, and Democracy: Insights from Maine and Other U.S. States by Joseph Cerrone and Cynthia McClintock_,_ also web-hosted and funded by New America’s ERRG. It gets high marks for creativity, but an eye-roll for thinking this could possibly add anything meaningful to our understanding of real world RCV elections. This study tried to determine whether RCV, plurality or two-round runoff elections provided greater voter satisfaction and acceptance of election results. To determine that, the authors conducted a survey asking if voters were satisfied with a fictional newspaper report of an election, with three different versions given to respondents – plurality, runoff and RCV, with variations of Republican/Democrat winners and variations of “come-from-behind” winners,” i.e. candidates not initially in first place but who win the “runoff.” Again, a minimal explanation of RCV or how it works was given, and the survey showed that respondents had the greatest unfamiliarity with RCV than the other methods. The unsurprising result? Respondents were much more satisfied with “come-from-behind” victories in a traditional two-round runoff election than in RCV, even though RCV is also a runoff system but with a single round of counting. Interestingly, the dissatisfaction with RCV disappeared for those who were more familiar with RCV. In fact, among those respondents who were “very familiar” with RCV, they were equally satisfied with RCV, runoff and plurality. Surprise, surprise. Again, what this study revealed, more than anything, is not only the inadequacy of the explanation for RCV given by the authors of this study, but the failure of the research format itself, thinking that such an artificial mock election could somehow simulate what actually happens in the real world in a real RCV election. Those four studies reviewed above are fitting examples of inadequate and shaky political “science.” Other studies reviewed in our paper from the New America/Electoral Reform Research Group cohort which also used mock elections included: Ranked-Choice Voting is an Acquired Taste by Joseph Anthony and David C. Kimball. New America. (Anthony et al., 2021). Ranked-Choice Voting is No Refuge for Extreme Candidates by Melissa Baker. New America. (Baker, 2021). Also included in this New America cohort is Does Ranked-Choice Voting Reduce Racial Polarization? by Yuki Atsusaka and Theodore Landsman, which actually did use real-world election results data but applied an odd and unconventional methodology to the data which relied on shaky assumptions and non-real-world scenarios that were too divorced from reality. To determine levels of “racially polarized voting,” the researchers imagined “ethnic parties,” by which they mean political parties for each ethnic group, which was especially odd since the election data they were using came from nonpartisan RCV races. But then they made an even odder assumption, namely that since race and ethnic characteristics of studied voters were not available, the authors tried to infer that information based on who voters selected and the racial make-up of voters in each district. This amounted to little more than vague and ambiguous guesswork dressed up with a bunch of mathematical equations used to give it a veneer of scientific appearance. Indeed, it seemed to assume racial polarization in order to prove racial polarization. Based on this questionable methodology, the authors concluded that RCV doesn’t reduce racial polarization. But the premise of this study missed an obvious reality: since RCV incentivizes more candidates to run and can result in more diverse fields of candidates, one would expect more racially-polarized voting in voters’ top rankings, not less, because more voters would have someone on that ballot who represents their racial or ethnic identity and more freedom to vote for their real first choice. By encouraging more diverse candidates and eliminating the spoiler effect, RCV facilitates voting for a favorite candidate of your own race and then selecting a second choice with the best likelihood of winning. The real measure is what voters do with their additional rankings – do they consider other candidates and vote “for the best of the rest”? This study didn’t tell us anything useful about that. But readily available data shows this is common in real RCV elections, and candidates act on this knowledge by engaging with voters outside their racial group. So the authors of this study failed to consider or account for what actually happens in real-world elections, and their conclusions are tainted by this failure. New America has contributed a great deal over the past 2.5 decades to our understanding of many policy areas, including politics and political reform (full disclosure: Steven Hill, one of the authors of this article and of the “Shaky Political Science” research paper and series, is a former senior fellow and former director of New America’s political reform program, 2005-2010). So it was especially disappointing that New America funded and published such a large batch of dubious studies about ranked choice voting. The stated praiseworthy goal of its Electoral Reform Research Group was to inspire new academic research about ranked choice voting that would shed light and help the public better understand the impacts of RCV. Instead, the ERRG research did just the opposite. It produced dubious research that created more confusion and misinformation. In so doing, New America’s political reform program contributed to “shaky political science.” Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS, a reader-supported digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe

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Apr 8 • 5:45 AM EDT • Entertainment • valleybreeze.com
2026 Masters odds, picks: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy predictions by model that nailed 4 straight winners

Picks for 2026 Masters golfers and the Masters favorite to win ahead of the year's first major at Augusta National

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Apr 7 • 11:00 PM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
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2026 Masters field: Ranking the invited players from 1-91 at Augusta National

Why are neither Scottie Scheffler nor Rory McIlroy sitting at No. 1? Is this the year for Justin Rose or Tommy Fleetwood? Will Jordan Spieth have a resurgence?

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Apr 7 • 11:36 AM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
2026 Masters odds, picks: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy predictions by model that nailed 4 straight winners

Picks for 2026 Masters golfers and the Masters favorite to win ahead of the year's first major at Augusta National

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Apr 7 • 9:14 AM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
‘Healthy Rounds’: Inquiring About Quality, Patient Safety

Dr. Scott Allen, UConn Health’s chief medical officer, joins Dr. Anthony Alessi’s podcast

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Apr 7 • 8:23 AM EDT • Health • today.uconn.edu
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60%
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Infighting among Knox County Republican operatives lands in DA's office

Tennessee election officials say prosecutors should take a look at a mailer from GOP donor Scott Davis criticizing Erik Wiatr.

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Apr 7 • 5:06 AM EDT • Politics • knoxnews.com
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2026 Masters odds, picks: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy predictions by model that nailed 4 straight winners

Picks for 2026 Masters golfers and the Masters favorite to win ahead of the year's first major at Augusta National

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Apr 6 • 7:15 PM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
2026 Masters odds, picks: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy predictions by model that nailed 4 straight winners

Picks for 2026 Masters golfers and the Masters favorite to win ahead of the year's first major at Augusta National

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Apr 6 • 3:11 PM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
Prescott, Messi, Ohtani and more: How the world’s biggest sports stars get paid

From deferring salaries to taking ownership equity, we explore all the different ways the biggest names in sport get paid

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Apr 6 • 12:12 AM EDT • Sports • nytimes.com
😐 Neutral (13%)
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Vault: The break from crypto politics is over

It’s been three months since the collapse of the Senate Banking Committee’s effort to advance a landmark crypto market structure bill. Now, with election season right around the corner, the panel is gearing up to try once more.

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Apr 5 • 4:39 PM EDT • Politics • punchbowl.news
This Week in Missouri Politics - April 5, 2026

Scott Faughn is joined by Governor of Missouri Mike Kehoe. On the panel Scott is joined by Reps. Bennie Cook, Mazzie Christensen, Nick Kimble and Missouri Times Editor Jake Kroesen.

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Apr 5 • 12:15 PM EDT • Politics • themissouritimes.com
Networking events schedule for The Business Collective

By Paula Pyzik Scott

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Apr 4 • 8:00 PM EDT • Business • blufftonicon.com
‘Law & Order’: Will Ryan Eggold Return as Riley’s Brother?

'That's just been such a fun relationship to play with,' says Reid Scott.

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Apr 4 • 11:00 AM EDT • Entertainment • cbs19news.com
The Rise of Socialism: Washington business owners slam new ‘millionaires tax’

Washington shop owners, talk show radio host Arri Hoffman and a local democratic socialist, Rep. Shaun Scott, discuss the impact of the state’s new “millionaires tax” and how socialist economic policy is impacting local business.

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Apr 3 • 2:36 PM EDT • Business • foxnews.com
Trapanovski question mark as injury ends 'difficult campaign'

Dundee United manager Jim Goodwin has lamented the loss of "one of the best wingers in the league" for the rest of the season, leaving a question mark over the North Macedonia international's future at Tannadice. Goodwin confirmed Kristijan Trapanovski "underwent some surgery" on Wednesday on a knee injury the 26-year-old sustained in last month's Scottish Cup defeat away to Falkirk. Trapanovski, who has two caps for his country, is out of contract this summer having signed a two-year deal when arriving from Shkupi in his homeland in 2024.

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Apr 3 • 5:58 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Goodwin wants repeat against other half of Old Firm

Jim Goodwin has called on Dundee United to replicate the level of performance they produced in their victory over Celtic as they bid to derail Rangers' Scottish Premiership title bid on Saturday. United defeated the other half of the Old Firm 2-0 at Tannadice in their last match before the international break to leave Martin O'Neill's side five points adrift of leaders Hearts. "We've got to take a lot of confidence out of that Celtic game," manager Goodwin said looking ahead to facing second-top Rangers, with whom they have drawn 2-2 home and away this season.

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Apr 2 • 4:09 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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25%
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Sydney Gruters raises $100K in first 5 hours on campaign trail

She also landed an endorsement from Rick Scott.

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Apr 2 • 3:25 PM EDT • Politics • floridapolitics.com
Borchetta Entertainment Group Signs The Band Perry To New Management Division

Founder and Chairman Scott Borchetta announced the signing of The Band Perry (Kimberly Perry and husband Johnny Costello) to the new Borchetta Entertainment

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Apr 1 • 1:06 PM EDT • Entertainment • news.pollstar.com
Dessa on philosophy, creativity and science

University of Minnesota philosophy alumna Dessa blends musical styles and a full arsenal of singing, writing and speaking talents to frame her view of the world.

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Mar 31 • 8:00 AM EDT • Science • twin-cities.umn.edu
Scott Pemberton O Theory added to VanWood entertainment line up

SOUTH LAKE TAHOE, Calif. – VanWood Tahoe, hosted by the Boys & Girls Club of Lake Tahoe in partnership with Kirkwood Mountain Resort and EpicPromise, announced a featured live music experience as part of its inaugural...

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Mar 31 • 8:00 AM EDT • Entertainment • tahoedailytribune.com
Early Never-Seen-Before GTA 4 Build Leaks Online After Gamer Discovers Abandoned Xbox 360 Dev Kit

A trip to a Scottish second-hand flea market has resulted in a stunning discovery: a 360 dev kit previously owned by Grand Theft Auto developer Rockstar Games complete with an early beta build of GTA 4.

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Mar 31 • 7:30 AM EDT • Technology • ign.com
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent  visits Long Island to tout small business under Trump
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Mar 30 • 9:29 PM EDT • Business • nypost.com
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73%
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27%
Stage, Screen, and Sound: April Arts and Entertainment Picks

April is really turning out to be a musical month in Buffalo! From K-Pop, Jazz, looping Scottish Folk Music, and classic rock, there is something for everyone. Check out the events below to hear all the great sounds Buffalo has to offer. And if you need a laugh, John Mulaney is coming to Shea’s on April 3 (after selling out April 2). Get a ticket before it’s too late. We will see you out and about this city this month.

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Mar 30 • 5:23 PM EDT • Entertainment • buffalorising.com
Dak Prescott 'Window' Key To Cowboys' Next Roster Moves
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Mar 30 • 12:15 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
How big a miss could Araujo be for Celtic?

With reports suggesting Julian Araujo has been ruled out for up to eight weeks with a thigh injury, Celtic fans are fearing their season could unravel. Martin O'Neill's side currently sit third in the Scottish Premiership after a defeat at Dundee United, with Rangers two points ahead and leaders Hearts five points clear. News of the severity of the injury to Araujo, who has not played since the recent Scottish Cup win at Ibrox, has served as another blow during the international break.

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Mar 30 • 6:28 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
😐 Neutral (17%)
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44%
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31%
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25%
US airlines face fuel-driven financial shakeout

When United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby wrote to employees about the oil price surge earlier this month, the most telling line was not about fuel bills or flight cuts. It ​was about opportunity.

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Mar 30 • 6:02 AM EDT • Business • reuters.com
This Baton Rouge bank plans to take over the Capital Region

Currency Bank President and CEO Scott Gaudin plans to make his company the go-to bank for local companies in the Capital Region.

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Mar 30 • 5:00 AM EDT • Business • nola.com
Mid-Ohio Valley Spring Sports: Williamstown Yellowjackets schedule

Baseball Head coach: Levi Maxwell Assistant coaches: Ryan Scott, Mark Adkins, Matt Houser, Cole MacIver, Josh Yearego Roster Seniors Wyatt Powell, Dylan Pucella Juniors Wyatt Siley, Austin McDonald Sophomores Breck Allen, Jackson Fulton, Noal Powell, Jacob MacIver Freshmen Ben Raines, Brayden Strcula, Colten Rinard, Daniel Cunningham, Zander Brookover, Alexander Schmidt Schedule March 23: at Doddridge […]

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Mar 29 • 8:00 PM EDT • Sports • newsandsentinel.com
This Week in Missouri Politics - March 29, 2026

Scott Faughn is joined by Senate President Pro Tem Cindy O'Laughlin.

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Mar 29 • 12:00 PM EDT • Politics • themissouritimes.com
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🙂 Positive (37%)
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44%
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25%
Humza Yousaf - It felt surreal to go shopping without police protection

Scotland's former first minister has bid farewell to the Scottish Parliament, marking the end of his 15-year SNP career as an MSP.

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Mar 29 • 6:31 AM EDT • Politics • bbc.com
Scott Cleveland to perform in Deer Isle April 11

Pianist and singer Scott Cleveland will be joined by bassist Aiden Fiori at St. Brendan’s Episcopal Church on Deer Isle on Saturday, April 11, at 4 p.m.

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Mar 28 • 3:00 PM EDT • Entertainment • ellsworthamerican.com
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Health boss exit during Lampard Inquiry 'cowardly', say families

Bereaved families have criticised the timing of Paul Scott's departure during the Lampard Inquiry.

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Mar 28 • 2:32 AM EDT • Health • bbc.com
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Inside Scottish Rite’s Effort to Curb ACL Injuries in Youth Sports

A former orthopedic patient at the institution, Dr. Michael Kutschke discusses why ACL injuries are more prevalent—and what he’s doing to prevent them.

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Mar 27 • 4:02 PM EDT • Sports • dmagazine.com
Health and welfare budget passes senate on second attempt, now including further cuts

On the 74th day of the legislative session, the Senate voted to approve a revised Health and Human Services maintenance budget after initially failing earlier t

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Mar 27 • 2:57 PM EDT • Health • idahonews.com
PS5 FPS Alien Deathstorm Is Not to Be Confused with Ridley Scott Movie, Despite Its Dev

We were confused, too

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Mar 26 • 9:00 PM EDT • Technology • pushsquare.com
Sonja O'Hara Developing 'Slay' With Producer Scott Glassgold (EXCLUSIVE)

Screenwriter Sonja O'Hara is developing her feature 'Slay' with producer Scott Glassgold following a competition win, Deadline can report exclusively.

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Mar 25 • 3:56 PM EDT • Entertainment • deadline.com
Roadmap Writers, Everard Entertainment Set Sonja O’Hara’s ‘Slay’ For Feature Development Following Competition Win; Scott Glassgold Producing

EXCLUSIVE: Sonja O’Hara has emerged as the inaugural grand prize winner of a new writing competition, aimed at discovering commercially viable short stories for feature adaptation, from Roadmap Writer...

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Mar 25 • 3:56 PM EDT • Entertainment • nz.news.yahoo.com
Pulitzer winner 'Fairview' is a little cloudy in its L.A. premiere

Jackie Sibblies Drury's Pulitzer Prize-winning drama "Fairview" receives its L.A. premiere at the Matrix in a Rogue Machine production directed by Oz Scott.

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Mar 25 • 6:00 AM EDT • Entertainment • latimes.com
How live selling is helping one entrepreneur grow his business

Running a business has been a "roller coaster of a ride," said Scott Wool, who nearly went bankrupt in 2013. Today, he's growing like never before.

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Mar 25 • 5:30 AM EDT • Business • businessinsider.com
🙂 Positive (50%)
'Beast' McTominay hailed for Napoli turnaround

"Beast of an athlete" Scott McTominay has been praised for the way he has gone from Manchester United "scapegoat" to Napoli great. Scotland assistant coach Steven Naismith revealed he had been impressed from the moment the 29-year-old midfielder joined the national squad.

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Mar 25 • 3:22 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
🙂 Positive (42%)
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67%
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33%
United CEO tells Congress: 'Please get the deal done soon'

United CEO Scott Kirby said that it's "unconscionable that our politicians haven't gotten this done."

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Mar 25 • 1:39 AM EDT • Business • businessinsider.com