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Ed Sheeran addresses Gaza and Macklemore controversy at Philly tour stop
At his first concert since controversy roiled his North American tour, Ed Sheeran said he is “deeply worried” by venues influencing performances after opener Macklemore was fired from the concert
Why Is Elbit Systems (TASE:ESLT) Rebranding Its U.S. Business As Twenty Six Defense?
Elbit Systems (TASE:ESLT) has rebranded its U.S. operating segment as Twenty-Six Defense, targeting the domestic American defense market. The new Twenty-Six Defense banner is intended to highlight U.S. industrial capacity and onshore production for defense customers. Elbit Systems links the rebrand to closer alignment with U.S. national security priorities and government focus on localized manufacturing. The Twenty-Six Defense shift toward a U.S. centric identity is an important context for...
Why politicians should pay more attention to the polls (reprise)
Welcome to the 231st edition of The Week in Polls (TWIP), a polling newsletter that always welcomes new readers. So please don’t keep TWIP a secret; share it with your friends and colleagues: Share The Week in Polls With all the stories swirling around Reform, JL Partners and political polling, I am finally tearing myself away from talking about the regulation of polling this week - and instead re-running a previous piece reminding us why the solution to problems with polls isn’t simply to ban or ignore them. Rather, we need them to play a vital role in making our politics - and politicians - better. This is followed by summaries of the latest national voting intention polls, seat projections from MRPs and the most recent party leader ratings. Subscribers who pay for the full edition can also read ten insights from the latest polls and analyses, including: A trio of organisations and a pair of professors have been casting their eyes over the Liberal Democrats ahead of the party’s autumn conference; What impact did the summer heatwave have on views on climate change? and Which wins out between chocolate and cheese? If you are not yet a paid subscriber, you can read all ten by starting a free trial now: Get FREE 7-day trial For more polling news as it comes in ahead of next week’s edition, you can also follow The Week in Polls on Bluesky. Picking up on my doubt last week about whether or not 35% of British train travellers have tried to order a takeaway for delivery to a railway station or carriage, thank you to reader Iain, who has been in touch to say he has done just that… in India. Another quick pair of updates, this time on the controversies around Reform and polling. Politico has a further scoop - “Farage aide caught in donor sting attended Egypt retreat with JL Partners” - and Ian Dunt has written about the problems with polling too: “Seeing the response of many polling experts in the last few weeks suggests that they are nervous about what is happening and keen to mitigate against it. Seeing the response of journalists, which has been basically non-existent, suggests the precise opposite.” My usual reminder as well: please do hit reply if you’ve spotted a poll, focus group or new piece of poll-based research that you think should be in contention for coverage in a future edition. Thank you! And with that, on with the show. How politicians get public opinion wrong I have written before about the benefits that come from widespread availability of high-quality political polling. We need more polls and more good coverage of polls. However, what I’ve not dug into before is the research into how accurately politicians estimate public opinion on issues. Thankfully we have academic research to tell us. First, the bad news: We present results from a study of 866 politicians in four countries.1 Politicians were asked to estimate the percentage of public support for various policy proposals. Comparing more than 10,000 estimations with actual levels of public support, we conclude that politicians are quite inaccurate estimators of people’s preferences. They make large errors and even regularly misperceive what a majority of the voters wants. Politicians are hardly better at estimating public preferences than ordinary citizens. Walgrave, S., Jansen, A., Sevenans, J., Soontjens, K., Pilet, J.B., Brack, N., Varone, F., Helfer, L., Vliegenthart, R., van der Meer, T., Breunig, C., Bailer, S., Sheffer, L. & Loewen, P.J. (2023a), “Inaccurate Politicians: Elected Representatives’ Estimations of Public Opinion in Four Countries”, The Journal of Politics, 85(1): 209-222. The bad news is not quite as bad as that makes it sound because, when asked whether the majority of public opinion was for or against various policies, politicians picked the wrong option ‘only’ 29% of the time. However, this included getting it wrong even when public opinion is far from evenly split on an issue: They do not only get it wrong when the public is divided and hard to read (e.g., when there is a 51%:49% distribution). Seventy percent of the misplacements occur for policies with a relatively clear distribution of at least 60% (dis)agreeing citizens. Moreover, the public scored only slightly worse than politicians, picking the wrong option 2.7 out of 8 times on average, compared with 2.3 times for politicians. Turning to the other measure of accuracy (not which side is in the lead but what the percentage support is for each side), politicians on average were 18 percentage points out in their guesses. Again, this was only slightly better than the public, whose error came in at 21 percentage points.2 Further research, using the same mix of countries, gives a little more comfort about how (in)accurate perceptions are: We show that politicians have a better understanding of public opinion when they think the issue matters to voters. Further, when an issue is personally important to politicians they more accurately estimate their party supporters’ opinions. The results confirm that politicians hold more accurate perceptions of voters’ preferences when they think it is important to do so but not necessarily when the issues actually are important to voters. Butler, C., Walgrave, S., Soontjens, K. & Loewen, P.J. (2024), “Politicians are better at estimating public opinion when they think it is more salient”, Party Politics: 1–13. Even so, it’s not a good picture. The remedy for this? Politicians should spend more time reading the polls. So forward this newsletter to someone you know… Share For a more general argument against banning polls, see my 2024 piece. Is “Let Bartlet Be Bartlet” good advice or not? The latest episode of my Political Fictions podcast heads across the Atlantic for a dip into one of the political TV classics: Mark and Cory talk about a giant of American political drama for the first time this week, as they tackle The West Wing. They talk about Let Bartlet Be Bartlet, the nineteenth episode of series one. In it, Mark wonders if The West Wing is actually the epitome of the “Boris Johnson school of politics”, Cory outmanoeuvres Mark into confirming we will record a Christmas Special about Love, Actually and they debate whether the central message of this episode has been misunderstood. Cory’s email newsletter is Paperback Rioter and Mark has a family of email newsletters. Subscribe to our newsletter for some additional bonus content and to get alerted whenever a new episode comes out. Our theme tune is “Monkeys Spinning Monkeys” by Kevin MacLeod/incompetech.com and licensed under the Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License. You can also listen to our episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, the web or YouTube. Elsewhere from me… [ A Lord's Eye View How to fix the problem of money in our politics Welcome to my latest update on work in the House of Lords. This time I am taking a look at how our political system is regulated, and the protections we need to keep democracy safe from becoming simply a contest to see who has the biggest bank account… Read more 5 days ago · 3 likes · 2 comments · Mark Pack ](https://lordseyeview.substack.com/p/how-to-fix-the-problem-of-money-in?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web&embedding_publication_id=1269283) If you spot a factual error… Borrowing an idea from Stuart Ritchie and others, if you spot a factual error in an edition of this newsletter, I will give you a free 12-month subscription to the paid-for version (or an extra 12 months on your existing one). Factual errors qualify, but grammatical errors or disagreements over interpretation do not, and my decision is final. Messages about both of those are always welcome, though. Voting intention and leadership ratings Here are the latest voting intention polls from different pollsters. It is all pretty static at the moment, with a small and consistent Labour lead in nearly all the polls. The table is also online here, along with explanations about what is included. It is updated regularly throughout the week as new polls are released. Next are the seat projections from MRPs, also sorted by fieldwork dates, listing those which are based on dedicated fieldwork (rather than models based on averages of other polls). Because such MRPs are published infrequently, some of the entries below are quite old. Finally, here is a summary of leadership ratings, with a graph from PollCheck: Detailed numbers from the latest polls are online here, and both that and the graph are updated regularly throughout the week as new data comes out. For historical figures on both voting intention and leader approval stretching back to the 1930s, including Parliamentary by-election polls, see PollBase. Catch up on the previous two editions [ ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/a-crisis-point-for-political-polling) [ A crisis point for political polling Sep 13 ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/a-crisis-point-for-political-polling) [ Read full story ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/a-crisis-point-for-political-polling) [ ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/extra-questions-about-the-polls-in) [ Extra questions about the polls in Reform’s funding scandal Sep 6 ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/extra-questions-about-the-polls-in) [ Read full story ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/extra-questions-about-the-polls-in) My privacy policy and other legal information are available here. Links to purchase books or other items are usually affiliate links which pay a commission for each sale. Quotes from social media messages are occasionally lightly edited for punctuation and clarity. If you are subscribed to other email lists of mine, please note that unsubscribing from this one will not automatically remove you from the others. If you wish to be removed from all my lists, simply reply to this email to let me know. A quintet of Lib Dem polling analyses, and 9 other polling insights you shouldn’t miss The following ten findings from the most recent polls and analyses are only for subscribers who pay for the full edition, but you can sign up for a free trial to read them straight away. Ahead of the start of Liberal Democrat conference, we have a trio of organisations and a pair of professors with pieces out about Ed Davey’s party:
Box Office: ‘Resident Evil’ tops box office with franchise best debut of $60 million
Zach Cregger’s “Resident Evil” is giving the North American box office a boost in its first weekend.
Box Office: 'Resident Evil' tops box office with franchise best debut of $60 million
Zach Cregger’s “Resident Evil” is giving the North American box office a boost in its first weekend.
Box Office: 'Resident Evil' tops box office with franchise best debut of $60 million
Zach Cregger’s “Resident Evil” is giving the North American box office a boost in its first weekend | WBBM Newsradio 780 AM & 105.9 FM
Box Office: \'Resident Evil\' tops box office with franchise best debut of $60 million
Zach Cregger’s “Resident Evil” is giving the North American box office a boost in its first weekend. Sony Pictures says Sunday that the film has earned an estimated $60 million
DIALOGUE: NAMI Albany invites community to support mental health at NAMIWalks
One in five Americans live with a mental illness. The Albany chapter of the National Alliance on Mental Illness wants to remind the community that no one has to face it alone. Ngina Mandouma and Kelly Wesselman joined Sunday’s Dialogue to discuss their involvement with NAMI and to invite the community to support mental health for all through NAMIWalks.
DIALOGUE: NAMI Albany invites community to support mental health at NAMIWalks
One in five Americans live with a mental illness. The Albany chapter of the National Alliance on Mental Illness wants to remind the community that no one has to face it alone. Ngina Mandouma and Kelly Wesselman joined Sunday’s Dialogue to discuss their involvement with NAMI and to invite the community to support mental health for all through NAMIWalks.
DIALOGUE: NAMI Albany invites community to support mental health at NAMIWalks
One in five Americans live with a mental illness. The Albany chapter of the National Alliance on Mental Illness wants to remind the community that no one has to face it alone. Ngina Mandouma and Kelly Wesselman joined Sunday’s Dialogue to discuss their involvement with NAMI and to invite the community to support mental health for all through NAMIWalks.
DIALOGUE: NAMI Albany invites community to support mental health at NAMIWalks
One in five Americans live with a mental illness. The Albany chapter of the National Alliance on Mental Illness wants to remind the community that no one has to face it alone. Ngina Mandouma and Kelly Wesselman joined Sunday’s Dialogue to discuss their involvement with NAMI and to invite the community to support mental health for all through NAMIWalks.
Survey Finds 1 In 3 Americans With Health Insurance Have Medical Debt
A new survey found that one third of Americans who have health coverage still have medical debt that they are paying off over time. What do you think?
The First American Sitcom Aired 79 Years Ago, With Episodes on CBS and NBC
The show starred a real couple.
The First American Sitcom Aired 79 Years Ago, With Episodes on CBS and NBC
The show starred a real couple.
The First American Sitcom Aired 79 Years Ago, With Episodes on CBS and NBC
The show starred a real couple.
The First American Sitcom Aired 79 Years Ago, With Episodes on CBS and NBC
The show starred a real couple.
‘It's awful’: How tariffs, soaring fuel costs and higher interest rates are squeezing American companies
Tariffs, soaring fuel prices and higher interest rates are squeezing American companies, particularly manufacturers, auto suppliers, retailers and transportation businesses.
Moving to Spain made me realize I don't want the American dream
Kevin Schreck says his quality of life is better in Valencia, Spain. Housing is affordable, and he is less worried about medical bills.
A new documentary traces the changing role of women in Texas Republican politics
New documentary, "Life of the Party," examines how women's roles in Texas Republican politics have changed over three decades through the experiences of Geanie Morrison, Sarah Davis and Mayra Flores.
‘Crisis even bigger than Covid’: American business owners are barely getting by
The historic supply chain struggles that America’s business owners face show why resurgent inflation will not be easily resolved – even if the war ended.
Mariska Hargitay Walked Onto a Set 27 Years Ago and Never Left It; No Actor in American Primetime Drama...
The two Emmys she won this month had nothing to do with Olivia Benson.
Mariska Hargitay Walked Onto a Set 27 Years Ago and Never Left It; No Actor in American Primetime Drama...
The two Emmys she won this month had nothing to do with Olivia Benson.
Cost of living in Bali: How an American retiree spends $1,300 a month
Debbie Welsch, 57, retired from LA to Bali, where she lives on $1,300 a month. Her 10-year home lease cost $45,000 upfront, or $375 a month.
Wembley welcomes 'rabid' college football fans
Wembley hosted its first American college football game on Saturday, but did the event meet expectations?
Cam Schlittler Gets Great Sign For Entering AL MVP Race
Second year pitcher Cam Schlittler is the strong American League Cy Young candidate, but he may have a chance at another award. The New York Yankees ace continues to add to the great body of work and saw his ERA dropping below 2.00 in recent weeks. Schlittler has an outside chance at the AL MVP […] The post Cam Schlittler Gets Great Sign For Entering AL MVP Race appeared first on HEAVY.
Fiesta de Salud brings free health resources, culture, community to Austin
Families gathered at the Emma S. Barrientos Mexican American Cultural Center on Saturday for Fiesta de Salud, a free community health fair aimed at helping Central Texans start the school year healthy and informed. READ MORE: https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/fiesta-de-salud-brings-free-health-resources-culture-community-to-austin/
Bikini barista shop coming to Sulphur despite pushback
A bikini barista shop is coming soon to Sulphur, but the store’s owners are already facing pushback from the local community. Married couple Kloey and Hunter Machulski expect to begin […]
Three Cuban women, three businesses, one dream: How they’re building their future in Miami
They arrived in Miami by different paths. Now they’re turning what they know and love — pole dancing, tennis and skin care — into businesses and a shot at the American dream.
Yankees Send Aaron Judge Back to the Injured List
The New York Yankees will once again be without their captain and reigning American League MVP, Aaron Judge. The team announced on Saturday morning that the 34-year-old will hit the 10-day injured list (retroactive to September 17th) due to a right calf strain. Judge only appeared in seven games after returning from a fractured rib …
Fiesta de Salud brings free health resources, culture, community to Austin
Families gathered at the Emma S. Barrientos Mexican American Cultural Center on Saturday for Fiesta de Salud, a free community health fair aimed at helping Central Texans start the school year heal…
Fiesta de Salud brings free health resources, culture, community to Austin
Families gathered at the Emma S. Barrientos Mexican American Cultural Center on Saturday for Fiesta de Salud, a free community health fair aimed at helping Central Texans start the school year healthy...
Nearly 3 in 4 Americans are battling the same exhausting health problem, CDC reveals
More than seven in 10 U.S. adults experienced fatigue during a three-month period, according to a 2024 CDC survey of roughly 27,000 people. T
Nearly 3 in 4 Americans are battling the same exhausting health problem, CDC reveals
More than seven in 10 U.S. adults experienced fatigue during a three-month period, according to a 2024 CDC survey of roughly 27,000 people. T
Nearly 3 in 4 Americans are battling the same exhausting health problem, CDC reveals
More than seven in 10 U.S. adults experienced fatigue during a three-month period, according to a 2024 CDC survey of roughly 27,000 people. T
Nearly 3 in 4 Americans are battling the same exhausting health problem, CDC reveals
More than seven in 10 U.S. adults experienced fatigue during a three-month period, according to a 2024 CDC survey of roughly 27,000 people. T
Latest impressive defensive performance helps undefeated Cedar Ridge stuff Rouse
After allowing nearly 40 points per game last year, Cedar Ridge's defense has dominated so far this season. The Raiders are 4-0 for the first time since 2017.
China is winning the science race while Washington freezes American innovation
Politically delayed federal research grants freeze medical trials and risk ceding American scientific leadership to China.
The Big Holes in Wearable Heart Rate Variability And Readiness Scores
On September 9th, Apple announced it was revamping its Apple Watch Health Sensing System, rolling out a Readiness score (0 to 10), and increasing the frequency of heart rate variability (HRV) outputs 24-fold. This can be viewed as upping its competition with various other consumer wearable sensors. These “readiness scores” as a composite of multiple metrics, with heart rate variability (HRV) being front and center for most. The majority of Americans are now using wearable sensors, which equates to well over 100 million adults. HRV and Readiness scores are increasingly being marketed as a measurement of autonomic nervous system health, a digital marker for future disease, a clock for biological age, and a holistic metric to promote healthspan and even longevity. (Apple also introduced a new longevity tab and “Health Age”.) None of this has been proven. In this edition of Ground Truths I am going to review what we know about heart rate variability and readiness scores. Heart Rate Variability HRV is the variation in normal heart cycle timing. The variability of the heart rate, the barely perceptible millisecond changes in time between consecutive heart beats (see R-R intervals in the Figure below, left panel), is due to interplay between the sympathetic and parasympathetic (vagal nerve) inputs. Distinct from heart rate, individuals with the same heart rate can have very different HRVs. It is a rough reflection of the autonomic nervous system (ANS) activity, inadequate to say whether a person’s ANS function is abnormal. For more than three decades, heart rate variability (HRV) has been measured and several studies have found an association of low HRV and clinical outcomes, particularly a link with higher all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. There have also been less well established links of low HRV to risk of early cognitive impairment, dementia, mental illness, Type 2 diabetes and substance abuse. An important reminder is that HRV is a surrogate marker without any established cause-and-effect relationship. If you increase your HRV, that doesn’t mean it will improve health outcomes. In fact, there is no hard evidence for that. All that work linking to health outcomes was done with electrocardiogram (ECG) derived HRV. Now, in the era of consumer wearables, this is getting assessed differently, by optical pulse (yes, the lights you see) plethysmography (PPG) or what is called pulse rate variability (PRV). They are not the same, as shown below (right panel) and only concordant when the delay between the ECG and pulse is kept constant, which basically means at rest. I should mention there’s also what I will call MPV, a mattress mechanical movement sensor, a derived heart rate variability, that companies like Eight Sleep use, even further away from directly measuring HRV. HRV has not one uniform measurement but many different types of quantification, such as RMSSD, the magnitude of difference between successive R-R intervals of normal sinus beats (N-N) or SDNN, the standard deviation of NN intervals, both in milliseconds. SDNN is one of the so-called frequency domain HRVs (others are LF, HF, LF/HF). Different wearable sensors use different metics; Apple has relied on SDNN and nearly all of the others use RMSSD, which is generally considered the more accurate metric. There’s also the different length of time measured, such as for a matter of minutes, all day, or an overnight’s sleep. Short measurements are especially problematic since they don’t capture enough of respiratory modulation and other factors that influence HRV. Share Ground Truths How well does HRV correlate with PRV? There are very limited studies, especially independently done. One that is commonly cited was conducted by Air Force researchers in only 13 healthy adults assessing Oura ring 3 and 4, Whoop 4.0, and Garmin Fenix 6 and showed a correlation coefficient of 0.88 to 0.97 and a mean absolute percentage error from 6 to 10%. The correlation is not a perfect 1.0, but there’s at least a fairly high level of correlation. HRV is supposed to increase during the night due to takeover of the parasympathetic nervous system, and higher during deep sleep. A recent example of my 1 week, all day “HRV,” and one during sleep is shown below. As you can see, the N of 1 data are inconsistent for the same days from different sensors (Oura, AppleWatch, Fitbit Air, and Eight Sleep) by patterns, absolute numbers, and comparison with prior days and weeks. The largest study in over 8 million Fitbit users (the old version, not Google Fitbit Air, introduced in May 2026) gives you a sense of the effect of age, sex, and the 2 different main HRV (here PRV) metrics, with RMSSD on the left and SDRR (=SDNN) on the right below. That study, from data collected in 2018, is a major outlier, since all the more recent ones are tiny with respect to sample size. Many of the companies have not had independent evaluation of their HRV, such as Eight Sleep, but have published a low standard error on their website. There are some other published studies on the correlation between HRV and PRV, but they are all small and only in healthy adults. A scoping review emphasized the lack of study in underrepresented individuals, including the aged, people of color (which affects the PPG signal), and individuals who are underweight or obese. Add the typical adult age 60 plus with one or more chronic diseases. For example, one study in over 900 adults found poor correlation of HRV and PRV, non-uniformly underestimated across many chronic diseases (cardiovascular, endocrine, neurological, respiratory, and others), concluding PRV is “an invalid surrogate for HRV.” A recent systematic review of 43 studies comparing HRV and PRV found reasonable pooled absolute standardized error (HRV as gold standard) but only 10 of the studies provided quantitative synthesis in ideal conditions. Their main conclusion was similarly cautious: “PPG-derived HRV [PRV] should not be regarded as universally interchangeable with ECG-derived HRV across all devices, populations, and recording contexts.” Factors Affecting HRV and PRV That gets me to the long list of factors that affect HRV (and PRV) besides the device, the type of measurement (RMSSD, SDNN or others), the person’s signal, the sensor site, the duration of data capture, if weighting by sleep stage is used, how artifact is processed and corrected. And this list is not complete!: Oura puts out data from their community of users (who input data) on what affects their overnight HRV. The factors currently provided are: no alcohol (increase 8%), melatonin (increase 2%, float tank (increase 2%), wine (decrease 4%), and party (decrease 14%) in overnight HRV. Must be some big parties! Subscribe What is a PRV measurement good for? It has been falsely characterized as an index of “autonomic balance” and a specific indicator of stress. A 2018 review of the studies available for HRV and its relationship to stress, not using any of the current wearables, found that stress can lower HRV. But so can many other factors. The non-specificity of the signal, indexed to the table above, is striking. Evidence from a UK Biobank study of over 46,000 participants with actual HRV looked at genetically predicted HRV, a genetic risk score, that failed to show the expected HRV-mortality link, indicating that _HRV is likely not causa_l, but rather a reflection of person’s physiologic state. A review of consumer wearable HRV data from 5 longitudinal studies showed that nighttime PRV was not associated with perceived stress, and surprisingly higher HRV, in the largest cohort (N=717 participants), was correlated with higher stress. An Oura ring cohort of 525 first-year college students found a link between overnight PRV and perceived stress, but that was also seen with resting heart rate, sleep, and respiratory rate. Several very small studies have examined the relationship of HRV and athletic injuries or guiding training with mixed, and predominantly negative results. HRV biofeedback training with paced breathing had no significant effect on reducing stress or raising HRV, as demonstrated with sham controlled trials. When HRV for multiple days showed a decline in conjunction with body temperature, the Oura ring published data for prediction of Covid. The WHOOP company sponsored an observational study, published in 2026, of 30,000 users for 72 weeks, without a control group, that reported reduced alcohol intake (5.8 % points) by self-report. That doesn’t tell us much, and particularly about the merits of HRV for behavioral change. If you use the same device and conditions as longitudinal trends for multiple (at least 2-3) weeks that may be the one way to get something useful from the measurements. Data for overnight sleep with minimal motion and using RMSSD is the best proxy for real HRV. The reason to look at trends rather than any given night is that it more likely represents something, even though you won’t know with certainty what the “it” is. Keep in mind there are no data, no peer-reviewed evidence, to show that HRV fluctuation in-person has any correlation with health outcomes. Share Readiness Scores These are proprietary scores that integrate different metrics for each of the wearables: no algorithms have been disclosed. They are unvalidated against health outcomes. In a review of 14 composite health scores of readiness and recovery, HRV contributed 86% to the scores, followed by reading heart rate (79%), physical activity and sleep duration (both at 71%). That review noted the substantial variability in measurement protools and lack of standardization. Sleep staging is notoriously inconsistent and inaccurate by these sensors, which adds further to the HRV uncertainties for what the scores, which use sleep stage data, mean. Only resting heart rate has been shown consistently across devices to be extremely accurate. I’ve made a Table to summarize what we know about which metrics are included, the scores, any peer-reviewed studies that compared the readiness score with health outcomes, and the corresponding (if any, NA-not available) citation. You will note that some companies do not use the term “readiness," such as WHOOP for recovery, and Garmin, which has 2 different scores, one of which is Body Battery. Eight Sleep uses the term “Fitness Score.” They all include HRV; Apple includes a new metric they call “Recovery HRV” which among other components uses 7-days of sleep, but it is unclear what this means or how it is differentiated from other scores (there are clearly no data for outcomes). We have no knowledge of how the different components are weighted or whether any of these scores are better than resting heart rate, HRV alone, physical activity, or any other single metric. Since none of these are standardized, they are not interchangeable, so if you get a 90 for Oura that has no relationship to a 90 on a Google Fitbit Air. Notably, the company can update its algorithm for readiness score at any point without notification to device users. Without any useful evidence of actionability for these scores or established relationship with health outcomes, it is hard to make a case for their value. At the Apple recent announcement they showed their Readiness score (0-10) on the watch (Figure below) but there are no published data on this score, not even on their website. It’s available only on their new Watch Series 12 or Ultra 4 [of course, ;-)]. That exemplifies the problems with these scores, lack of data and evidence for being meaningful to promote health. Perhaps the best study (which isn’t saying much) is the WHOOP Recovery for golfer performance, because it did correlate with an objective outcome, even though there was no control group and the authors were all from the company. Among the 389 pro golfers, an absolute 10-per cent point increase in Recovery score was associated with about 0.5 fewer strokes per round. But that’s hardly a health outcome! WHOOP is also conducting a study in over 2,700 runners to see if their recovery score will be linked to less injuries and improved performance, but that is not yet published and has no control group or randomization. Putting This in Context For two decades I’ve been enthusiastic about the potential for digital health and particularly wearable biosensors. Over the years, we’ve seen some great progress for their ability to promote physical activity and accurately detect atrial fibrillation (the first FDA cleared deep learning AI for consumers). That work was the subject of rigorous research. But there are holes in the data and evidence for other metrics. One notable one is the “VO2 max” story that I wrote about earlier this year. At that time many subscribers asked me to cover heart rate variability, which I finally got to here. When I dived into the research and publication for HRV and readiness scores, I expected to find at least some that were of high quality and demonstrated their utility by linkage to health outcomes. To my surprise, I found none. The wearable sensor measurements for HRV (PRV) are, for the most part, accurate, but that validation work has only been done in small studies of healthy adults and does not take into account the long list of factors, from the device, software side, and the user side, that affect HRV measurements. Moreover, this metric chiefly relies on optical sensing and, as we have learned for heart rate PPG sensing, may be less accurate in people of color. Keep in mind that all of the health outcome association evidence comes from ECG-derived HRV; none are from wearable sensor data. I will repeat the key point: there's no peer-reviewed evidence to show that in-person HRV fluctuation—or efforts to raise your HRV— has any correlation with health outcomes. For those of you who look at your HRV on awakening, or even 2+ week trends of it being low, I hope this context helps to relieve any anxiety. Yes, low HRV (not PRV) has been shown to increase risk of some diseases as summarized above. But efforts to raise your HRV—a surrogate metric— has not been established for improving any health outcomes. HRV does not have any evidence of causality (the genetic evidence actually goes against this possibility). In this summary, I have not included data for other wearable sensors such as Polar, Samsung, Withings, Suunto, Amazfit, Coros, Ultrahuman, or additional mattress sensors. These are beyond my first-hand experience, and as far as I know from my in-depth review none have any peer-reviewed published data that differ from the 6 sensors I’ve reviewed here. From the points I’ve gone over above, we’re not ready for readiness scores. Besides being proprietary, they are predominantly based on metrics that have their own issues. It’s compounding the problem, like building a house without a solid foundation that has never undergone a rigorous inspection, and then selling it. Like I mentioned for PRV, you can look at trends over weeks rather than any single day, to get a handle, but even that may not be helpful. There’s simply no evidence that these scores meaningfully relate to health outcomes. I’d emphasize they might, but that requires doing prospective or randomized studies to prove it. None exist. There’s great promise for HRV/PRV utility_. For example**,**_ Prof Maiken Nedergaard, who discovered the brain glymphatics that are essential in eliminating metabolic waste products from the brain during sleep, has posited that HRV could be a non-invasive marker for neuromodulator oscillations, brain-body regulatory circuits, and brain clearance. That would be extremely useful, but like everything else on HRV and readiness scores it requires solid research and validation. The lay media isn’t helping much to get the story straight. Earlier this year The Economist published a piece entitled “The most useful indicator of your overall health” which ordained HRV as an “accumulated stress score.” That’s akin to the false assertion about VO2max: “V02 max is the singular most powerful marker for longevity.” As I’ve summarized here, that is not established. The fact is that so many things can lower HRV, including physical exercise (especially an intense workout), reduced sleep quality, stress, the list above, no less the device, signal, and software. Whatever fluctuations observed have not been correlated with any health outcome. Sadly, “datamaxxers” are widely using HRV and readiness scores that have never been validated to mean anything. We already know that for some people using the sensors for sleep metrics, it can induce “orthosomnia,” an obsession to get high sleep quality, with associated high levels of anxiety. In an experiment done by a company to promote sleep quality for its employees, “For those employees who did use the trackers, many reported feeling perfectly rested until their tracker told them they had had a terrible night. Others were told that they had slept like a baby when they had actually been lying awake worrying about the quality of their sleep. “ The same problem can result from preoccupation with HRV or readiness scores, with anxiety that would lead to further reduction in both. It you are using a wearable like >100 million American adults, it’s OK to look at these data, but contextualized with the major caveats reviewed here. If you are one to require evidence that HRV or readiness scores are linked to health outcomes, you may not even want to look. The companies make it hard to turn them off! Let me end with the companies that make and sell wearables. Apple’s doubling down on HRV (24-fold more reporting and heart rate very 5 seconds) and introduction of a Readiness score tells us that consumers have bought into these metrics and they are joining the club. However, all of this is occurring with a backdrop of tens millions of users, claims about the data that are not backed up by adequate evidence, marketing way out in front of whatever limited data exists, and not being transparent about their readiness score algorithms. The companies can well afford to do the research that is needed to connect these metrics with health outcomes show, once and for all, that increasing HRV or using readiness scores promotes our health. If they believed and invested in the products they are selling, we’d not be in this position of not knowing. That’s essentially where we are with HRV and readiness scores. Perhaps someday this will change and we’ll have good reason to embrace them. NB: I wrote this post. No AI. I have no conflicts of interest with any of its content. Loading... Ground Truths has 215,000 subscribers from every US state and 214 countries. There are over 300,000 followers of Ground Truths so more than 90,000 folks who can easily convert to be free subscribers. Your subscription to these free essays and podcasts makes my work in putting them together worthwhile. If you’re not a subscriber, please join! If you found this interesting PLEASE share it! Share Ground Truths The proceeds from all voluntary paid subscriptions go to support our summer internship program. It enabled us to accept and support a record number of 62 summer interns that joined us in 2026! These are high school, college and medical students selected from thousands of applicants. We couldn’t do this expanded program without the funds coming in through Ground Truths. Thank you!
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Fans aren't holding back.
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Fans aren't holding back.
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Fans aren't holding back.
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Fans aren't holding back.
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Fans aren't holding back.
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Early voting begins in US midterm elections that could flip control of Congress
In-person voting for this year’s midterm elections is underway. Friday marked the start of early voting in Virginia, ushering in the final six weeks for Americans to decide which party
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Duncan Sheik attends 'The Broadway Legacy Foundation Launch' at the Broadway Museum on November 11, 2025 in New York City. (Santiago Felipe/Getty Images)Duncan Sheik, the Tony Award-winning composer behind Spring Awakening and more, has died, according to his Instagram. He was 56.The Friday morning Instagram post said the "father, husband, son, brother, and friend" died on Thursday night "surrounded by love."A message shared on Sheik's Instagram earlier this week by his family said he was "receiving medical care" and was "in critical but stable condition.""The world has a lost a singular talent, and deeply influential voice in music and theater," Friday's statement said. "From his Grammy-nominated hit “Barely Breathing” to his groundbreaking, Tony and Grammy Award-winning work on Spring Awakening, Duncan’s artistry touched many and leaves an indelible mark on the cultural landscape."Born on Nov. 18, 1969, in Montclair, New Jersey, Sheik rose to fame in 1996 when he released his self-titled debut album, which included his hit song, "Barely Breathing."The song peaked at No. 16 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart and earned him a Grammy nomination for best male pop vocal performance.Following his debut album, he released Humming in 1998, Phantom Moon in 2001 and Daylight in 2002.While "Barely Breathing" established Sheik as a singer-songwriter, his career later expanded into musical theater, where he found success as a composer.Sheik collaborated with lyricist Steven Sater and composed the music for Spring Awakening, which opened on Broadway in 2006.He told Broadcast Music, Inc. in 2015 that around the time he was making the music for Spring Awakening, he wasn't "a huge fan" of music that was happening on Broadway and he wanted to make the music for an audience "beyond the normal crowd that would go to a Broadway musical."The rock musical, based on Frank Wedekind's 1891 play and starring Jonathan Groff, Lea Michele, John Gallagher and Skylar Astin, became a major success. It won eight Tony Awards in 2007, including best musical, best original score and best orchestrations.He went on to compose music for several other stage productions, including American Psycho and Because of Winn-Dixie. He also collaborated with Sater again on Alice by Heart and The Secret Life of Bees.In his interview with Broadcast Music, Inc., he added that working on musical theater has "helped broaden my palette."Sheik went on to release several more albums throughout his career, including White Limousine, Whisper House, Covers 80s, Legerdemain and Claptrap.In May, it was announced that Sheik's new musical, Memoirs of Amorous Gentlemen, would make its off-Broadway debut this fall. The musical is based on Moyoco Anno's manga graphic novel of the same name.An off-Broadway revival of Spring Awakening is also set to open this fall. Copyright © 2026, ABC Audio. All rights reserved.
PAHO strengthens regional dialogue to prevent and respond to violence against health workers
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How much does playoff viewership increase from round to round?
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MDI Health Celebrates Community at 2026 Annual Meeting
BAR HARBOR—MDI Health celebrated the people and partnerships strengthening local healthcare during its 2026 Annual Meeting and Community Celebration, held September 15 at the Bar Harbor Club. The gathering brought together patients, medical staff, employees, trustees, volunteers, supporters, and community partners to recognize the year’s accomplishments and honor those whose contributions make a meaningful difference across the organization and the communities it serves. “This celebration is an opportunity to recognize the extraordinary people who make our work possible,” said Chrissi Maguire, president and CEO of MDI Health. “Their compassion, dedication, and belief in strong local healthcare can be felt throughout our hospital, health centers, Birch Bay Village, and the communities we serve.” During the celebration, MDI Health presented its 2026 Impact Award to Mount Desert Nursing Association (MDNA), recognizing the organization as Community Partner of the Year for providing compassionate, skilled in-home nursing care across Mount Desert Island, Trenton, and Lamoine. “MDNA extends care beyond our walls, helping people remain safely at home, surrounded by the people and places they know and love,” Maguire said. “Its work lies at the intersection of healthcare and community and strengthens our entire healthcare system.” “For 77 years, MDNA has helped our neighbors recover and remain safely at home,” said Amy McVety, MDNA Executive Director. “Our longstanding partnership with MDI Health helps ensure a seamless transition from hospital to home and the continued care patients need. We are grateful for this recognition and especially proud of our talented, hardworking team.” The evening marked a transition in Board leadership. Martha Wagner, PhD, was recognized as she concluded her term as chair of the MDI Health Board of Trustees. Madeleine Braun, PhD, MBA, was introduced as incoming chair. “It is an honor to build on Martha’s leadership and serve an organization so deeply connected to this community,” Braun said. Individual honorees recognized during the evening’s program included Nancy D’Agostino, MDI Health Volunteer of the Year; George Rossi, Birch Bay Village Volunteer of the Year; Marc Woolfolk, Birch Bay Village Employee of the Year; and Beth Applebee, MDI Hospital Employee of the Year. “These honorees represent the very best of who we are,” Maguire said. The program also highlighted new initiatives and honors from the past year. MDI Health launched a free Screening Mammogram Scholarship Program to remove financial barriers to early detection, supported by a generous grant from the Maine Cancer Foundation. An in-hospital food pantry has been opened to meet rising community need and address the link between nutrition and health. MDI Health earned CMS five-star ratings for Patient Experience and Nurse Communication, top marks in the 2026–2027 Lown Institute Hospitals Index, recognition from the American Hospital Association and American Heart Association, and a third consecutive Best Places to Work in Maine designation. The hospital will open its new Main Entrance this fall, as work advances on the expanded Emergency Department and other patient-care spaces. The Building Our Future Campaign has raised more than $56 million in capital and programmatic support to date. “Everything we have accomplished reflects the strength of this community,” Maguire said. “We are grateful to everyone who has contributed their time, talent, leadership, and support to help MDI Health continue meeting the evolving needs of the region.” Subscribe Share Leave a comment
RFK Jr. Names New Members to Powerful Health Panel Whose Work He Has Blocked
Mr. Kennedy has repeatedly interfered with the work of the United States Preventive Services Task Force, whose recommendations guide insurance coverage for many Americans.
Steph Ruhle kicks off the first ever live show of Money Power Politics
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Redistricting moved 1 in 10 Americans into a new House district, report finds
It has significantly altered the makeup of at least one-fifth of districts
Redistricting moved 1 in 10 Americans into a new House district, report finds
It has significantly altered the makeup of at least one-fifth of districts
Claims for unemployment benefits drop to 196,000
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Singer Dolly Parton performs, January 24, 2014 in Rancho Mirage, Calif. (Valerie Macon/Getty Images)The late Dolly Parton is sharing a new video message, which was recorded before she died in August.The Americana Music Association released Parton’s video Wednesday, which was submitted as part of her acceptance of the Lifetime Achievement Award at the 2026 Americana Honors & Awards.“Roots music, or what is now called Americana music, is what I grew up playing back in the Smoky Mountains,” Parton said in part in the video. “It’s that same music that drew me back to East Tennessee back in 1997 to write and record my album 'Hungry Again.' And that project really opened the door to a series of bluegrass and acoustic albums that changed the course of my career in so many ways.”“Now, new fans discovered these albums, new Americana music communities embraced them, and now looking back at it all, I see this era of my career as a musical renaissance of sorts,” Parton continued.The Americana Music Association announced in August that Parton — whose songs include “I Will Always Love You,” "Coat of Many Colors" and “Jolene” — was being recognized for her “enduring contributions as one of history’s greatest songwriters and recording artists.”Parton was in good company: Emmylou Harris, Van Morrison and Willie Nelson are among the artists who have been honored with the Americana Music Association Lifetime Achievement Award.Parton, a Tennessee native, died on Aug. 25 at the age of 80 following a private battle with cancer, according to her family.Throughout her six-decade career, Parton built a legacy that expanded beyond music into entrepreneurship and philanthropy.Copyright © 2026, ABC Audio. All rights reserved.