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A 200-year-old physics experiment could help build future computers
Scientists at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore have discovered a surprisingly simple way to create exotic light structures called optical skyrmions using a 200-year-old optical effect known as the Poisson spot. Instead of relying on expensive, highly engineered materials, they simply shine a laser at a tiny circular disc, producing stable swirling patterns in light that researchers believe could one day help power advanced data storage, communications, and computing technologies.
2 brain-healthy habits a neurologist swears by to prevent disease
A neurologist shared why emotional health is so important for reducing the risk of dementia and Alzheimer's.
Handover of Health Commodities
Joint Handover of Health Commodities Speech of Chargé d’Affaires Steve Bremner (…) Thank you for joining us. I am here today to demonstrate how U.S. foreign assistance under President Trump’s America First Global Health Strategy and our bilateral health MOU makes America safer and stronger while helping Madagascar build a more self-reliant health system. Through our bilateral Global Health Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed in December 2025 with the Ministry of Public Health, our two governments outlined shared priorities and responsibilities, including a strong focus on infectious disease threats and Madagascar’s increasing ownership and co-investment in its own health system. The MOU outlines the structure and terms of U.S. support to Madagascar’s health sector from 2026 through 2030, with a total commitment of $134,305,000 from the U.S. government and $41,216,252 from the Government of Madagascar to work jointly to address malaria, maternal and child health, polio and global health security issues. Stronger health systems help prevent instability and reduce the risk that infectious diseases reach the United States, making both our countries safer. America First foreign assistance is clear and disciplined: It is a tool of strategic engagement, not global charity. Every U.S. taxpayer dollar must show measurable results, reduce long-term dependence on U.S. taxpayer resources, and support greater self-reliance in recipient countries. Support must be efficient and targeted, with zero tolerance for fraud, waste, or abuse. This year, through the U.S.-funded Global Health Supply Chain Program – Procurement and Supply Management project, we are distributing: 989,250 long-lasting insecticide-treated nets, worth $2,000,000 to 63 districts and 1,661 Community Health Centers across Madagascar, with the third and final delivery of these nets having arrived in late June. Through the U.S.-funded Momentum Country and Global Leadership (MCGL) project, we are funding: The full cost of Starlink internet connectivity equipment procurement, installation, and one-year subscription for 31 priority District and Regional Health Offices. Through the U.S.-funded Strengthening Infectious Disease Detection Systems project, we are supplying: 908,523 pieces of critical medical equipment and a modernized digital surveillance system to the Ministry of Public Health. These materials will strengthen health systems, improve response capabilities, and help those most in need of protection from mosquito-borne diseases — particularly malaria, which continues to claim the lives of children and women at an unacceptable rate. Deployed effectively, they will contribute to reducing maternal and newborn mortality in rural and hard-to-reach communities where the need is greatest. In these same underserved areas, Starlink connectivity will play a critical role in enabling the rapid transmission of health data and information to central levels, ensuring that decision-makers receive timely, actionable intelligence and can mount swift, coordinated responses to protect populations. For Americans, this support delivers concrete benefits. Stronger health systems in Madagascar help detect and contain infectious diseases before they spread across borders, protecting American and Malagasy families. More stable, healthier countries can expand trade and economic cooperation with the United States. Our goal is not permanent support; it is temporary, targeted assistance that helps Madagascar save lives while achieving greater self-reliance and independence from foreign assistance. To the health workers and community health agents here that will use the products we’re delivering today: your dedication and skills save lives. Your work exemplifies the kind of local ownership that will enable Madagascar to reduce dependence on foreign assistance and manage the country’s health challenges. This targeted support delivers results today while helping Madagascar build toward a future where it can sustain and expand those health gains independently, ensuring that today’s U.S. support leads to Madagascar’s self-sufficiency. Thank you, Misaotra.
MyFlyYatra is expanding its business class flight travel to Australia, Africa, Japan, Europe, Dubai by introducing enhanced coverage for global destinations as part of its ongoing growth strategy.
MyFlyYatra announces expanded business class flight booking options from the United States to Australia, Africa, Japan, Europe and Dubai.Germant...
Scientists discover a hidden heart valve risk linked to gum disease
Researchers found that bacteria linked to gum disease may help drive the development of calcific aortic valve stenosis by triggering inflammation and calcium buildup in the heart valve. The early findings suggest that keeping gums healthy could play a role in reducing the risk of this serious heart condition.
New viral library helps scientists study thousands of proteins
To prevent viruses from sickening or killing us - whether it's an individual case of hepatitis B or a COVID pandemic - it's crucial to understand how the proteins they make initiate changes in our bodies that allow them to flourish.
Scientists warn invasive Asian mantises are threatening Europe's wildlife
Two striking Asian praying mantis species that have rapidly spread across Europe have now been officially classified as invasive, raising new concerns about their impact on native wildlife. Boosted by climate change and urban environments, these fast-breeding predators are expanding northward, where they prey on native insects, pollinators, and even small vertebrates while also reducing native mantis populations through deadly mating interactions.
Sports salmon season reopens in CA, bringing big catches and new hope to North Bay fishermen
After nearly a three-year closure, Bay Area sport salmon fishing is back, and North Bay fishermen are celebrating a season already producing impressive catches.
PA’s top election official: Trump actions show “concerning” pattern of “reducing federal support for elections”
iOS 27: What's New With the Mail App
Apple's Mail app is getting some useful updates in iOS 27, with Apple making big improvements to search and introducing new AI features. Search iOS 27 has an overhauled search system that extends to the Mail app. Instead of surfacing results based on keywords and recency, Mail app search ranks results by relevance and intent. Search results that come up in Mail are more relevant than before, so you find exactly what you're looking for.
Platner officially terminates Senate bid after bombshell rape allegation ends campaign
Graham Platner filed paperwork hours before a crucial deadline, allowing Maine Democrats to replace him after sexual misconduct allegations.
Death of Console Discs Pushes Gamers to PC
The reception of PlayStation's recent decision to stop producing physical games media in early 2028 has been heard far and wide across the internet, with fans even going as far as to start the "Don't Kill the Disc" petition on Change.org. More recently, a survey on Push Square, a publication that...
Pennsylvania businesses brace for upheaval ahead of crucial skill games deadline
From taverns to gas stations to so-called skill games parlors, business owners across the state are bracing for an unknown future as time runs out for...
Healthy Aging Expert’s No. 1 Social Activity To Promote Longevity
In TODAY.com’s Expert Tip of the Day, a renowned physician reveals his favorite social activity to promote longevity because it requires several important skills crucial for heathy aging.
Study of 281 Free Android VPN Apps Finds Traffic Leaks, Unencrypted Data, and Tracking
Researchers tested 281 free Android VPN apps and found DNS leaks, plaintext traffic, weak tunnels, and flaws across apps with 2.4B installs.
iOS 27: 8+ New CarPlay Features
With iOS 27, Apple is introducing several CarPlay features that will improve your in-car experience, both when you're driving and when you're idle in the car. From new video experiences to Siri AI, there are multiple new options to look forward to. Video Apps CarPlay apps can incorporate video browsing capabilities, so you can browse for and watch videos on your in-car display while parked.
Analysis | Democratic Party fissures are shaping Michigan’s crucial Senate primary
The race is the next, and perhaps biggest, battle between the Democrats’ warring factions.
AI hallucinations are causing headaches in Louisiana courtrooms. 'It shocked me.'
More than a dozen attorneys have been fined or sanctioned in Louisiana for using fabricated quotes or cites in their pleadings -- called hallucinations -- generated by AI tools. It's a growing problem.
Lane Johnson’s longevity remains crucial to Eagles’ title hopes
At 36 years old, Lane Johnson continues to prove that elite offensive linemen don't always follow the NFL's aging curve.
Radiologist pushes back against snowbird couple’s claim he missed signs of a stroke
Attorneys for radiologist Eric J. Sax, MD, MBA, and MaineHealth contend the lawsuit has circumvented crucial pre-litigation requirements established in the state.
Entertainment Business Grad José Aparicio Marquez Helps Bring the World's Biggest Artists to Mexico
Entertainment Business bachelor's graduate José Aparicio Márquez promotes major live events for OCESA, producing shows for artists including Bad Bunny, Metallica, Paul McCartney, and J Balvin across Mexico.
Dumbo Health Launches SleepLongevityAge, Bringing Clinical Care to the World’s Most Overlooked Health Metric
Introducing Sleep Longevity: a new category of care that turns the world’s most overlooked health metric into action. Sleep better. Live longer.Miami, Florida, July 08, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Millions of people wake up tired every morning, and most never find out why. Americans have never known more about how they sleep: Apple Watch, Oura, Whoop, Garmin, and other wearables generate millions of sleep scores every morning. Yet for most people, those scores never lead to action. Today, Dumbo Hea
Build EBR launches facade improvement program for Plank Road businesses
Build EBR is introducing a new grant initiative designed to help small businesses and commercial property owners enhance the appearance of properties along the Plank Road corridor. Funded through the JPMorgan Chase AdvancingCities Grant, the Front Door Refresh Facade Improvement Program is the final implementation initiative tied to the Reimagine Plank Road Master Plan and […]
Matt Damon has ‘teary moment’ seeing all 4 daughters together at ‘The Odyssey’ premiere
Matt Damon got a little ‘teary’ after walking ‘The Odyssey’ red carpet with his four daughters, who are now all grown up.
Titan OS adds 30 Radial Entertainment FAST channels in Europe
Titan OS is adding and expanding reach of 30 free ad-supported streaming TV channels from Radial Entertainment’s FilmRise to its smart TV OS-powered device footprint across Europe. | Expansion of FilmRise channels internationally is currently a top priority for Radial, the company said.
AI shows promise in improving mammogram accuracy, reducing false positives
Discover how AI could revolutionize mammogram screenings, making them quicker and more accurate for women over 40.
ESPN pinpoints Raiders X-factor the 2026 season
What is the Raiders X-factor this season? ESPN seems to have pinpointed a crucial question.
Lone Star Politics: July 5, 2026
The Republican National Committee will gather in Dallas for a pep-rally for President Trump ahead of the crucial midterm elections. Plus, Plano Mayor John Muns speaks about the Dallas Stars’ move.
A toxicologist's guide to reducing your exposure to everyday chemicals
There’s no such thing as a "chemical-free" life, but some simple steps can help you minimize exposures to daily chemicals.
Padres' Biggest Trade Deadline Need Revealed
The San Diego Padres sit four games out of a postseason spot heading into a crucial trade deadline.
60 summers of service: Vanderbilt Clarksville Hospital's teen volunteer tradition
Vanderbilt Clarksville Hospital's VolunTeen program has been introducing young people to health care careers for six decades.
Can citizen science save the world’s wildlife?
Can smartphones save the planet? Learn how citizen science and AI-powered apps are providing crucial data to protect global biodiversity.
Non-Las Vegas Raiders quarterbacks who have the most pressure on them heading into the 2026 season
The Las Vegas Raiders are heading into a very, very crucial season where they have to get it right, and a lot of players are under pressure.
NASA and Small Business Administration partner on funding key space technologies
NASA is partnering with the U.S. Small Business Administration on an effort to attract capital to invest in companies producing critical space components.
Shekel squeeze: How offshore talent is keeping Israel's startup nation scaling upwards
While reducing costs is one reason to hire offshore employees, ONE Offshore explained that most companies outsource to expand their teams.
Mallory McMorrow drops out of Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary
Mallory McMorrow dropped out of the Democratic Senate primary in Michigan on Sunday, narrowing the field to two as the party faces a crucial choice next month in picking a nominee to defend a must-win seat.
49ers news: Top 100, coaching candidate, Ricky Pearsall improvement
A look at what has been going on with the San Francisco 49ers, one of the Arizona Cardinals' NFC West rivals.
The CEO using AI to double revenue with 1,000 fewer hires: ‘Nobody’s going to replace the last mile’
"I was having a conversation this weekend with Claude and it was a pretty in-depth conversation," W.J. Werzyn told Fortune. And then it hallucinated.
Scientists Propose ‘StormWall’ To Stop A $2.4 Trillion Solar Storm
A proposed StormWall spacecraft fleet could release gas to weaken solar storms, protecting satellites, power grids and technology, but potentially reducing auroras.
Jack Flaherty and Keider Montero blank the Rangers
Ok, Tyler Holton got one out as well, but the two right-handers cancelled any Rangers fireworks on the Fourth of July.
World Cup RO16: Paraguay vs France
Paraguay and France meet in a crucial round of 16 clash on Saturday with Didier Deschamps’ men looking to continue their goalscoring form and become the first team to score three or more goals in si...
Anthropic Launches Claude Science Beta: A Multi-Agent AI Workbench for Reproducible Genomics, Proteomics, and Cheminformatics Pipelines
Anthropic released Claude Science, a beta multi-agent AI workbench that runs end-to-end research pipelines and checks every citation.
The New Anthropic Tool That Could Change How Drugs Are Developed
Introducing Claude Science, the AI platform designed to expedite the discovery of promising new therapies. Anthropic will also use it in-house to pursue innovative treatments for 'neglected' diseases.
Strength training for seniors is crucial for aging comfortably. This is the equipment you need to start your journey
I asked aging and fitness experts for their recommendations on the best strength-training products for seniors. Here’s what they say is worth buying.
IDP Rookie Profile: Anthony Hill Jr. in Redraft Leagues
Anthony Hill Jr. lands in Tennessee with a starting role and enough downhill ability to become a useful rookie IDP option.
Stem cell scientists engineer 'synthetic organizer' cells to improve kidney organoids
In a study published in Science, USC researchers paired a biological discovery with an engineering feat to create more faithful, reproducible lab-grown kidney structures from stem cells, known as organoids.
From lifelike hands to gamified nudges, how technology is reshaping the future of healthcare
While design is crucial to make prosthetics or robot pants people actually want to wear, lessons from loyalty programs could also incentivize people to visit the doctor.
Once a source of national pride, Cuba’s healthcare system declines as energy shortages deepen crisis
Irisleydis Tristá, a cancer patient in Cuba, has been unable to get a crucial CT scan for seven months because the machine at Havana’s leading hospital is broken.
Ocasio-Cortez Endorses Abdul El-Sayed in Crucial Michigan Senate Race
The endorsement is the first in a contested Senate primary by Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez this year, in a state that Democrats believe they must hold this fall to win a Senate majority.
Android 17's new lock screen trick could frustrate anyone trying to break into your phone
Google has detailed how Android 17 implements tougher lock screen security by drastically reducing PIN guess attempts and more.
South Fulton leaders hopeful new investment will address crucial healthcare gap on Atlanta's south side
For decades, residents and officials alike have raised the issue regarding limited access to hospitals and specialty care in South Fulton. Now, county leaders and health officials are earmarking funds to address the situation.
For crucial federal agencies, veneer of independence is stripped away
The ruling letting the president oust members of historically independent agencies without cause has shaken institutions that once believed their protections were secure.
NYC Health + Hospitals/Metropolitan and MetroPlusHealth Support New Mother of Triplets
New York, NY – NYC Health + Hospitals/Metropolitan, in partnership with MetroPlusHealth, today shared the story of Doris A. Lucio Lucio, an immigrant
Strengthening Collaboration between Workforce, Health, and Human Services to Meet New Federal Requirements
Human Services Policy Advisors Institute | June 24th, 2026 H.R. 1, or “The One Big Beautiful Bill”, introduced significant changes to work requirements across major health and human services programs. including expanding the populations subject to SNAP time limits, reducing state/territory SNAP waiver flexibility, and creating new work requirements in Medicaid. These changes accelerate the […]
Proton launches Lumo 2.0 with image generation, memory, more
Today, Proton is introducing Lumo 2.0, in what the company says is the largest upgrade to its privacy-first AI assistant to date.
Premier Lacrosse League lands $100 million to chase Olympic moment
The funding comes at a crucial period of preparation for PLL, as it looks to capitalize on lacrosse being a part of the 2028 Summer Olympics.
Netflix and Superheroes Are Having a Rough Stretch on Streaming....
(Welcome to my weekly streaming ratings report, the single best guide to what’s popular in streaming TV and what isn’t. I’m the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a former streaming executive who now analyzes business strategy in the entertainment industry. If you were forwarded this email, please subscribe to get these insights each week.) I have a quick prediction before we start today’s article: You might see this data in future news articles. Not my specific charts or analysis, but the core trend I’ve been monitoring—Netflix is having a lackluster Q2—will become inescapable. Often, folks want to know “What does the data say?” Well, that’s what it says. I haven’t seen this analysis hit the trades really yet, but I have a feeling some other outlets are going to start making this case soon. Remember, you read it here first. You probably have read about the problems facing superhero films at the box office this weekend. Well, this week, I explore whether superheroes are dying on TV as well! And the data says: definitely maybe! We have a lot to cover in today’s Streaming Ratings Report, which covers the two weeks of 18-May and 25-May. Today, I’m just looking at TV, like Netflix’s disappointing Q2, superhero shows underwhelming, a few TV shows dropping off the charts, The Pitt finally ending its epic run on the viewership charts (and whether “view counts” change its status as one of the biggest shows of all time), all the flops, bombs and misses, and a whole lot more. Tomorrow, I’ve got a great rundown of the film side of things. Let’s dive right in! (Reminder: The streaming ratings report focuses on the U.S. market and compiles data from Nielsen’s weekly top ten viewership ranks, Luminate’s Top Ten Data, Showlabs, TV Time trend data, Samba TV household viewership, company datecdotes, Netflix hours viewed data, Google Trends, and IMDb to determine the most popular content. While most data points are current, Nielsen’s data covers the weeks of May 18th to May 31st, 2026. You can find a link to my terminology here.) Subscribe Television - Netflix’s Q2 Slump Continues Having analyzed streaming ratings for going on half a decade, I have learned to trust my gut, but I’m always relieved when I can find actual data to back it up. For example, after a string of very popular shows like Stranger Things, Bridgerton, The Lincoln Lawyer and The Night Agent came out, week after week, in January and February, my gut wondered if Netflix had enough new and returning TV shows to sustain them throughout the year. Since then, Netflix’s post-March slate of shows has not impressed me. This week seemed to feature a potential new hit, but then, like a classic Duffer Bros. TV show, there was a twist. I speak of The Boroughs, Netflix’s latest (and last) Duffer Bros. produced show. The pitch is “Stranger Things with older actors”. And it topped the Nielsen charts: With just two weeks of viewership, The Boroughs would have been a top 25 debut show last year: But here’s the twist: Netflix has already cancelled The Boroughs! What happened? Likely a few things. First, the show didn’t do as well globally as it did in the US. As What’s on Netflix showed, it lagged behind several other shows that got cancelled. Second, its completion rate was likely low; after an initial burst of interest, it quickly dropped off on the Samba TV and Luminate charts. Third, the Duffer Bros. left Netflix for Paramount, and that may have factored into Netflix’s decision here. (Though I tend to believe that if a show is doing well, Netflix would have kept greenlighting seasons.) Still, just because I can explain why Netflix may have cancelled this show doesn’t mean I’m justifying it. In particular, as I’ve noted before, Netflix is losing a lot of their bigger shows as they reach their natural ends, and they need to replace those shows. This show had the hallmarks of a big new genre show, and it’s their biggest hit of the last few months (in the US at least), but now it’s done. Netflix’s other show this week—The Four Seasons, the second season of the “hit” show from last year—definitely disappointed. Its sophomore season had about half the viewership of the first, only 12.7 million hours. It also only had a two week run on Samba TV, and its numbers were all down on Luminate too. In other words, even with two successes, the Q2 slump for Netflix looks real: I could add to the list of disappointments: Both Lord of the Files and Man on Fire had short runs on the Nielsen charts. Running Point’s sophomore season also opened to about half its viewership, similar to The Four Seasons. A Good Girl’s Guide to Murder’s second season—see below—didn’t even make any of the three viewership charts I track, unlike the first season. Netflix is absolutely having a dismal second three months of 2026. If this Nielsen data is any indication, and I think it is, I think this will show up in Netflix’s engagement report, and maybe even their financial outcomes. And the rest of June doesn’t look much better. We have two hit shows coming back—Sweet Magnolias, one of their quietest big shows, and Avatar: The Last Airbender, a big hit for them in 2024—but the other big swings are limited series crime thrillers i.e. no future season potential. Like I said above, sometimes when I uncover a juicy nugget like this, other outlets end up writing very similar articles mimicking the data without credit. We’ll see if that happens this time! Share Television - The State of Superhero Shows on Streaming When I first heard the pitch for Spider-Noir—a Sony TV show on Prime Video that binge-released eight episodes first on MGM+ then on Prime Video two days later—I had my doubts. It’s a live-action Spider-Man show set in the 1930s, starring Nicholas Cage, based on a cameo of a character in Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. No, seriously, that’s the pitch. That could either go terrifically well or horribly wrong. Great because, Spider-Man. He’s the biggest superhero we have. I’ve seen tracking numbers that put the new _Spider-Man: Brand New Da_y as the blockbuster of the year and initial pre-sales back that up. And yet this Spider-Noir pitch feels very esoteric. (Also, the eight-episode binge release feels very “Amazon copying Netflix” again.) So what’s the data say? And what does this say about the future of superhero shows?
Serbia's Vucic eyes new political chapter as he steps down from presidency
When Aleksandar Vucic announced that he will step down as president of Serbia, cutting short his mandate and likely triggering early elections, few believed that he would disappear from politics.
Amazon Is Awash With AI-Written Guideslop For Unfinished Games
Buy your novel-like, image-free, hallucinated guide to Alien: Isolation 2 today!
Cheaper AI is better: Soaring bills are reshaping how businesses choose models
Silicon Valley's powerful and pricey AI models have been a necessity for businesses looking to future-proof themselves. But now a growing number of tech CEOs are arguing that cheaper options would be crucial for their wider adoption.
Congress passes rare bipartisan bill on housing, how manufactured housing could be crucial to affordability
Being broke costs you 13 IQ points, according to science. Here's the number that changes everything.
CreditNinja reports that saving your first $10,000 unlocks financial stability, improving decision-making and reducing stress, ultimately boosting cognitive function.
Q&A: Why humanitarian aid is crucial to stopping the Ebola outbreak
Health officials say the Ebola response cannot succeed without addressing the humanitarian crisis.
The war for Burnham’s ear: politicians and wonks fight for influence over a PM
There is high emotion, a deluge of policy papers and an ‘excruciating’ jostle for jobs as Labour’s probable next leader settles back into Westminster life
Could Israel’s coming election see an end to Netanyahu’s political career?
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces mounting political, legal and US pressure ahead of crucial elections.
Trump admin rule puts reproductive health care for 160K Pa. patients at risk, lawsuit says
Spotlight PA is an independent, nonpartisan, and nonprofit newsroom producing investigative and public-service journalism that holds power to account and...
Breakfast, lunch, dinner to hit 30g fiber goal: Nutrition scientist
You may eat fiber for gut health, but it plays many crucial roles in the body, from lowering cholesterol to helping to control glucose levels.
Healthcare AI Leaders Are Rapidly Trying To Outmaneuver Skyrocketing Memory And GPU Costs
Compute power has become one of the most crucial components of the healthcare delivery cycle.
Introducing: Breguet Celebrates the 225th Anniversary of the Tourbillon with Four New Releases, And the Return of a Collector Favorite (Live Pics)
A revived and revised version of the Roth-designed caliber 558.1 movement (significantly improved) headlines four watches to celebrate the patent date of one of Abraham-Louis Breguet's most notable achievements.
Behavioral Healthcare Close to Home: SRMC Services Available in Sandoval County
Sandoval County spans more than 3,000 square miles with a population of 160,000 residents. As one of New Mexico’s fastest growing counties, it’s crucial the people who live there have access to high quality healthcare, including behavioral health...
Sony files WARN notice for layoffs at Bungie in Bellevue
Sony Interactive Entertainment is reducing the workforce at Bungie, with layoffs affecting a significant number of employees.
Men’s Health Month reminds community members to catch up on overdue wellness visits
June is Men’s Health Month and experts are urging men not to ignore crucial preventative care.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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How should European scientists respond to the US AI kill switch?
Earlier in June, Europe’s worst fears of technological dependence were confirmed when the White House ordered the AI firm Anthropic to stop non-US citizens using its leading models. This kill-switch moment crystalised anxieties in Brussels that the continent, lagging the US on the creation of leading-edge AI models, is now a technological of vassal of Washington. The shock has specific implications for European scientists and universities. Some governments are now worried that with AI being integrated into labs, Donald Trump now has his finger hovering over an off switch for European science. “Having restrictions on this tool, it can have an impact on our own research,” said France’s research minister, Philippe Baptiste, at the VivaTech conference in Paris on June 18.Baptiste, himself a former academic, said that colleagues in mathematics had recently warned him they were now cut off from leading-edge US models, risking their work. “This model is not available anymore now because of the US restriction, and for the first time this had an impact on mathematics,” a field where large language models (LLMs) are making a significant contribution, said Baptiste. So, should European scientists avoid relying on US models in the future? Or would this be a self-harming overreaction? And how is AI being used in science, anyway? What happened?On June 12, it emerged that Washington, citing cybersecurity concerns, had ordered Anthropic to stop non-US citizens using two models: Claude Mythos 5, and Claude Fable 5, a version of Mythos but with guardrails to prevent abuse. Anthropic said Washington’s concerns were overblown. But forced to follow the order, yet with no way to check who was using the models, the company suddenly shut down access for everyone, US citizens included. There’s still no agreement on how to restore broad access. But last week, Bloomberg reported that select US companies, and the US government, still had access to Mythos despite the ban, but the EU’s cybersecurity agency Enisa had been shut out. Class division of researchersIn the longer term, access outside the US should be restored, said Marcel Salathé, co-director of the AI centre at the Federal Polytechnic School of Lausanne (EPFL), because a permanent restriction would be financially ruinous to US AI firms. “Even Trump will eventually budge to economic pressure,” he said.However, US AI firms might end up operating rather like banks, doing due diligence on users of their leading-edge AI models, he went on.European scientists are unlikely to fall foul of such checks, he said. But having a Chinese postgraduate in their lab, or doing a type of research the US disapproved of, could potentially result in access being denied. “It will create a sort of class division of researchers,” he said. More than frontier modelsHowever, successfully deploying AI in science is about far more than just having access to leading LLMs such as Mythos.Instead, many science-specific tools, most famously Alphafold, which predicts protein folding structures, require “far less” computing power to train than frontier models, well within the capabilities of European supercomputers, according to a recent analysis by the Arq Foundation, a Brussel-based AI think tank. Instead, tools such as Alphafold are possible because certain fields, like protein folding, weather prediction or astronomy, have large, clean, standardised datasets that can be used to train predictive models. Rather than compute, “data is the central constraint for AI for science,” the report says. For example, a less powerful physics model trained on CERN’s data “will be more valuable than the best model without certain data,” said Bengüsu Özcan, author of the report. European advantage?Europe could therefore steal a march by using its scientific data and infrastructure to create models US digital giants cannot. “They might actually match or go even beyond what these big [US] companies are doing,” said Özcan.Indeed, some European start-ups hope to create automated testing labs to create the kind of standardised data that could speed up the discovery of new materials. Materials scientists say there’s currently too little data to train models. AI scientistsHowever, even if the bottleneck for AI in science is often data, rather than compute, being at the mercy of the US for LLM access could still become a problem for European scientists. A new class of “AI scientists” based on leading LLMs is also emerging, Özcan’s report says.Unlike domain-specific tools like Alphafold, these try to automate day-to-day scientific work, by providing an overarching tool that coordinates specific models to synthesise existing literature, generate hypotheses or run analysis of data. The problem for Europe, however, is that these tools are sometimes based on US leading models. Google Deepmind’s AI Co-Scientist, for example, is built on Google’s Gemini LLM. Systematic failureThese scientific automation tools are still in their early stages, and still exhibit “systematic failures on scientific tasks,” Özcan’s report says. One of the problems is that the messy, day-to-day process of scientific discovery is largely not documented, meaning LLMs don’t have a good source of data to learn how scientists actually work. Meanwhile, some tasks, such as literature synthesis, don’t typically require access to leading edge models.However, the performance of AI scientific assistants could improve as companies such as Google pour resources into developing them. Rely on US“Unfortunately, for scientific assistants, there is not much we can do right now except rely on US frontier AI,” said Antoine Bosselut, a natural language processing expert based at EPFL. Chinese-built open models, which can run on local computers, lessening the risk of a shutdown, are touted as one alternative to US dependence. There’s also Mistral, once seen as Europe’s main AI hope, but the Paris-based company has seen its recent models fall behind in performance. But the Chinese alternatives are generally not as capable as US frontier AI models, said Bosselut, unless paired with fiddly, custom tools that allows them to act as independent agents. “Most scientists do not have the time,” he said. Don’t jump ship yetAlthough the kill switch moment is seen a warning shot for European scientists, it doesn’t mean labs should abandon US AI tools immediately. “I do not think the right response is simply to abandon US-based models and systems under the banner of sovereignty or independence,” said Mattias Björnmalm, secretary general of the Cesaer university association. “That would be an overreaction.”Related articlesEuropean sovereignty in AI requires ‘ugly trade-offs,’ say experts Robotic lab start-up makes case for €500M EU-funded materials testing facilityAI in science: is it useful? Instead, European researchers need to ask themselves whether they’re becoming dependent on technology that could be turned off in Washington, said Özcan. “They might not see this today, but they should really start asking this question,” she said. European researchers need a plan B, said Salathé. “I would recommend to every researcher, very proactively explore alternatives.”Own toolsIn addition, Björnmalm and others want European research institutions to develop their own scientific AI tools.Instead of signing AI deals with US digital giants, European universities should be using this money to create their own models, which may end up being superior for research, said Sabine Leonelli, an expert on the use of AI in science at the Technical University of Munich. “Universities in Europe seem to be happy to sign commercial contracts with US companies on the assumption [their AI tools] are better,” she said. But US frontier LLMs are typically opaque, and have been developed without independent scientific input, she said. “This is not good enough for science.”Last year, Swiss researchers released Apertus, an LLM designed to be completely transparent, from its development methods to its training data. The idea is that this makes scientific tools built on top of the model far more reproducible than with closed, commercial alternatives.“Europe needs more of this: serious capacity-building that gives researchers, universities and companies credible options,” said Björnmalm.
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Political parties have a primary role to play in tackling online violence against women and gender diverse politicians. While the prevalence and impact of TFGBV, such as coordinated disinformation campaigns, deepfake image-based sexual abuse or trolling are well documented, many parties are still building their knowledge on how to respond effectively and have not put in place internal practices and policies that respond to the rapidly evolving, poorly regulated digital ecosystem. About the ReportIn order to promote and protect fair and democratic participation in politics, this ALIGN Report explores what political parties are doing in response to TFGBV and what factors shape their action. The findings, based on existing literature and interviews with gender and politics professionals, indicate there are three sets of factors which donors, civil society and practitioners should consider when designing action to support political parties to respond to TFGBV internally. These are: (1) gender norms; (2) socio-political environment; and (3) internal party factors.Key messagesUnequal gender norms are ubiquitous across politics, shaping expectations of leaders to be strong and assertive, and practices of political parties to uphold masculinist values and sustain cultures of silence. These often lead to weak response to TFGBV against women politicians.The socio-political context can incentivise or disincentivise action, depending on the salience of gender issues, which are increasingly weaponised. Electoral competitiveness, domestic laws (i.e. quota requirements), and even the political system or global normative frameworks influence political will to act.Internal party factors that shape responses will vary across countries and contexts, but include: structures to enforce codes of conduct, policies and reporting mechanisms on (TF)GBV, political ideology, extent of centralisation of leadership, and crucially the meaningful participation of women in decision-making positions, not least through internal women’s wings.Party responses can be seen as a spectrum, with actions falling between active discouragement to address TFGBV to commitment to transform unequal norms and practices within the party.About the ToolkitTogether with the report, this ALIGN toolkit offers gender professionals and others working on democratic strengthening a set of guiding questions and reflection prompts to identify which responses could be most effective and suitable in different contexts. These actions can complement other solutions to TFGBV, such as regulations promoting safety by design. The assessment spans a broad range of factors including: (1) different manifestations of gender norms, (2) the socio-political environment and (3) internal party structures.Key messagesPolitical parties are duty-bound to take action internally to respond to the significant threats posed to women members and candidates, including from their own party colleagues, affiliates and political peers.Existing party approaches to TFGBV can be assessed along a spectrum which ranges from active discouragement and passive acceptance to minimal response and transformative change.To generate effective and context-appropriate solutions to TFGBV, it is important to consider how gender norms shape leadership expectations and internal party practices, while also analysing the impact of the socio-political environment. While actions to support women to stay safe online are very common, codes of conduct and measures to strengthen women’s voice and power in the parties are proposed as most transformative solutions.
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