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Judge Questions Trump Administration’s Need to Target Noncitizen Voters
In the legal tangle between the Justice Department and California, a federal judge on Tuesday deferred a ruling but said the government already had a remedy it could use after the election.
Disinformation videos, likely from Russia, are exploiting real people to malign Senate candidates
Social media videos believed to be linked to Russia are misusing real people’s names and photographs to spread disinformation about two Democratic Senate candidates
Disinformation videos, likely from Russia, are exploiting real people to malign Senate candidates
Social media videos believed to be linked to Russia are misusing real people’s names and photographs to spread disinformation about two Democratic Senate candidates.
White House Has Tight Grip Over FBI in Pursuing Trump Targets, Agent Says
In court testimony, the agent outlined the willingness of Kash Patel, the F.B.I. director, to take orders from President Trump to investigate his perceived enemies.
Animals Starves while the Kardashians Miss the Charts Again
(Welcome to my weekly streaming ratings report, the single best guide to what’s popular in streaming TV and what isn’t. I’m the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a former streaming executive who now analyzes business strategy in the entertainment industry. If you were forwarded this email, please subscribe to get these insights each week.) Before we get going, I’d like to offer congratulations to Jonathan Funke, whose suggestion “midflicks” won the poll for what I should call straight-to-streaming films which aren’t big or cinematic enough to go to theaters but seem too expensive for a TV movie. It’s so useful a term, I just used it last week! Now I just need to add this term to my data dictionary! Okay, on to this week’s issue. We’re starting out looking at Netflix/Ben Affleck’s latest crime thriller, Animals. I’ll also look at Disclosure Day heading to Peacock (it did better than you’d remember in theaters...) and a new movie based on toys. Plus, a long-time streaming flop returns for its eighth season...will it finally chart? (No.) Will anyone at Disney care? Probably not. All that, plus another look at new shows landing on streaming on 1-Oct from Reelgood, what streamer hasn’t had a film make the Luminate charts since August, Reacher’s long run on the charts, M_onster: The Lizzie Borden Story’s_ short run, the top shows in 2026 according to Samba TV, all the flops, bombs and misses, and a whole lot more. And I mean that last part: putting this week’s issue together, I assembled OVER 25 images, most of which are bespoke looks I made just for this report. Really, publishing articles like this takes the work of writing two articles: one is the narrative and the other is making charts/graphs. Let’s dive right in! (Reminder: The streaming ratings report focuses on the U.S. market and compiles data from Nielsen’s weekly top ten viewership ranks, Luminate’s Top Ten Data, JustWatch and Reelgood interest data, Samba TV household viewership, company datecdotes, Netflix hours viewed data, Google Trends, and IMDb to determine the most popular content. While most data points are current, Nielsen’s data covers the week of October 5th to October 11th, 2026. You can find a link to my terminology here.) Subscribe Film - Netflix’s Latest Star-Studded Thriller Goes For Glory The tempting angle for anyone writing about streaming film this month, like yours truly, is to ask, “Is this why Dan Lin lost his job at Netflix?” Take Animals, the Ben Affleck-starring-and-directing, Artists Equity-produced crime thriller that opened on 9-Oct. (Kerry Washington and Gillian Anderson are also in it.) If it did really well, then one could argue that Lin has another success on his resume. If it underperformed, then it’s another example of a Netflix underperformance this year. So where did Animals fall? Kinda in the middle, but that means it’s more “not a hit” than “big hit”. On Nielsen, it opened to 12.0 million hours, and here’s how that stacks up for 2026 films so far this year: Obviously, that’s not great. It’s both under my 15 million opening bar for “fine” for a Netflix film and 20 million bar for “great” opening. It did a bit better on Samba TV, getting to first place. That’s very, very good, though again, looking at the Nielsen data, it probably means that it was a light week overall. Luminate’s data is a bit closer to Samba TV’s, tied for 17th all time for single weeks since May of 2024: To top it off, no one seemed to like it. It has a 33 on Metacritic and only a 5.7 on IMDb. Both of these numbers could have been impacted by the stories about Affleck’s comments about using AI to make the film. Given the controversy, the film might not have been as bad as the ratings suggest, but it’s also not a bullish sign. All to say…yeah, on net this film isn’t a point in Dan Lin’s favor. At this point, Netflix’s slide has been long enough—going on since February—that I’m almost tempted to lower the bar for what a “hit” is on streaming. Post-February of 2026 or so, it seems like straight-to-streaming films just haven’t hit the same heights as they did from 2022 to 2025. Before we head onto the “Quick Hits” for film, I want to shout out a fellow newsletter whose articles I’ve been loving this year, LA Material, a new LA-based news outlet. For just a highlight of my favorite articles since July... I loved this article on Ghost Town, a group on Venice that clears homeless encampments. As a Los Angeleno, obviously I adore their articles on LA parking issues. Their article on illegal parking tickets got the City Council to address the issue! Also check out their article on people parking in medians. Check out their deep dive on what went wrong with the LA Jazz Festival and how it fell apart, or what’s wrong with USC’s finances. Finally, they wrote up a voter guide on voter guides for the LA General Election. So meta! In search of a city? L.A. Material is an independent news outlet covering the people, politics, culture and glorious chaos shaping Los Angeles. L.A. Material brings you intel on the city you can’t get anywhere else. From exploring how Reddit short stories became Hollywood’s hottest commodity to reporting on the survival jobs keeping entertainment workers afloat. And answering, once and for all, why the AMC Burbank escalator is always broken. Through their newsletters, podcast, videos, events, and member community, L.A. Material is designed to help Angelenos connect to Los Angeles and each other. Sign up now for the free weekday newsletter. Quick Notes on Film Steven Spielberg’s latest film, Disclosure Day, came to Peacock on 9-Oct, and I’ll admit that, after pulling its stats, I did a pinch of a double take. As I wrote throughout my deep, deep, deep dive on summer box office/Obsession/Backrooms/IP/superheroes, oftentimes the film media discusses films as “flops” or “misses” or “hits” without clarifying what they specifically mean. Since Disclosure Day didn’t make $250 million in the US or $500 million globally, it was definitely a disappointment by Spielbergian standards, who is the highest-grossing director of all time, and arguably even more ahead in adjusted grosses. But it did make $245 million globally on a $115 million budget, so it isn’t as big of a miss as I remember. That’s still probably not enough to break even in the theatrical window, when you factor in marketing costs…but it’s close. And it grossed a lot more even in the US than some titles with about ten times more coverage. Anyways, lots of preamble to say this one only did 4.5 million hours according to Nielsen, so it did make the charts, but on the low end. Here’s how it stacks up to other Peacock titles: Apple TV (née +) followed up their “success for them” Mayday with Matchbox The Movie. This one doesn’t look like a success even for them, but at least it’s not a miss. Apple/Skydance clearly tried to take advantage of the success of Barbie at the box office—let’s greenlight all the toy properties!!!—but of course, this didn’t make it to theaters. And it stars John Cena, who, as I argued earlier this summer, NEEDS to get his movies back in theaters. Anyways, this one has mixed-to-bad numbers. It missed the Samba TV and Nielsen charts in its first week, but did make Luminate with 7.1 million hours. That’s just enough to not be an outright miss, and about half what Mayday did earlier this summer. Speaking of Apple Studio’s Mayday, it ended up lasting five weeks on Luminate, which isn’t bad for Apple TV. On Nielsen, it had a three-week run, racking up 13.5 million hours total. Again, like Matchbox, the issue is the budget; I doubt that this viewership earned enough to justify that budget. Also, to be clear, neither of these films are “midflicks”; both should have gone to theaters. Toy Story 5 is not hanging around on the streaming charts on Disney+, so it’s not as leggy as either Zootopia 2 or Moana 2, and definitely not in the same class as Encanto. (It did make all the money at the box office, so Disney is going to be fine…) The Breadwinner on Netflix (from Sony) is down to 3.9 million hours in its third week. It only lasted for one week on the Samba TV charts. Netflix’s Doing Life had a smaller-than-normal binge release curve bounce, only going to 7.1 million hours from 6.0 to start, but it made Samba TV at fifth place in its second week. The Netflix documentary, The Widower: Til’ Death Do Us Part, also had a small binge release curve bounce to 6.5 million hours, but did make a second week on Samba TV. Meanwhile, Netflix’s Unabomber fell off after two weeks on Nielsen—which is not great at all—and Demon Slayer fell off after just one week. Over on Luminate, the two smaller titles The Swan: Behind the Mirror and Kill. Bury. Print both fell out of the Luminate top ten charts. The story of library film at the first of the month is the arrival of the Ice Age films on Netflix. Now, here’s a small example of optimizing your library that even Netflix could do better. Say you want to rent/license a new film series from Disney**.** A streamer could pay a big paycheck and then drop each Ice Age film on the exact same day of the month, the fourth of October. That’s one choice. In contrast, the streamer could have released each film one week apart, and make each one a mini-event for folks watching Ice Age films. Or even roll them out monthly. Netflix opted for the former strategy, and as a result, only three of the films made the Nielsen charts this week. The “Miss of the Week” goes to Tubi’s YA-ish horror film_, R.L. Stine’s Pumpkinhead 2_, which didn’t even make the Luminate charts like Tubi films usually do, or, should I say, “used to”? Tubi films, most of which are straight-to-streaming, used to reliably make the Luminate film charts (which only covers straight-to-streaming films), but a Tubi film hasn’t made it since August. The first Pumpkinhead got 1.4 million hours last year according to Luminate. As I wrote about this film before, it seems to be a bit muddled in terms of age: too scary for young kids but probably not scary enough for older kids. Speaking of Luminate, Netflix’s latest doc about a comic (expect more docs about comedians all month), Who Is Martin Mull?, flopped, getting just 200K and 700K hours according to Luminate. Three other film/special misses belonged to Hulu, including a standup special, Jamie Foxx: Take Care of Yourself, Neon’s latest horror film, Hokum, which made $17 million in the US, and a Family Guy Halloween special. (That last one was only 22 minutes, so it’s not a surprise it missed.) Finally, another Netflix standup special missed the charts, Mojo Brookzz: I Know You Lying missed too. I can confirm last week’s misses, most notably Paramount+’s Jackass: Best and Last, MUBI’s Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma and HBO Max’s Evil Dead Burn. Television - I Can’t Visualize Nothing: The Kardashians Story Normally, in the mini-dive essays that open the Streaming Ratings Report, I focus on shows that do well or, at the very least, make the charts. Why? Because as I’ve said time and again, I can’t visualize nothing like, say, the Kardashians’ TV shows. Here’s the TV debuts chart for this week with a missing spot for The Kardashians, whose eighth season just landed on Hulu:
Grand Jury Declines to Bring Charges Against Cassidy Hutchinson
The rejection of the indictment was the latest extraordinary setback in President Trump’s wide-ranging campaign to go after his political opponents.
Video: Opinion | Political Satire Is an American Tradition. Deceptive A.I. Ads Are Not.
Despite how cringeworthy they are, political campaigns have spent $137 million on A.I.-generated ads for the midterms. And the lack of regulation on these ads is warping our sense of what’s real. The Opinion writer Rotimi Adeoye argues that while this kind of political satire falls under First Amendment protection, “you should be free to fake a politician, but you shouldn’t be free to hide the fact that you did.”
Michigan Senate Race Drives Anxiety Among Jewish and Muslim Voters
More than elsewhere in the country, U.S. policy toward Israel is at the forefront of the race between Mike Rogers and Abdul El-Sayed.
Trump-Appointed CDC Deputy Director Jennifer Shuford Resigns After 4 Months
Dr. Jennifer Shuford, a respected former Texas health official, had been appointed by President Trump to help steady the agency.
Nithya Raman Is Not L.A.’s Mamdani. But She Might Become Mayor, Too.
Little known a year ago, Nithya Raman is a Democratic Socialist drawing comparisons with New York’s Zohran Mamdani. She has mounted a strong challenge to the incumbent, Karen Bass.
Did the Hardest A.I. Problem Just Get Much Easier?
A prominent researcher claims to have a revolutionary approach to “interpretability,” or the science of why A.I. models do what they do. Other experts aren’t so sure.
Antidepressants Don’t Correct A Chemical Imbalance. How, Then, Do They Work?
Here’s how psychiatrists like me think about the most promising hypotheses.
Intermountain Health Groundbreaking on a New Era of Children’s Health for Nevada
Nevada’s first stand-alone children’s hospital groundbreaking marks the community-wide effort to build a stronger pediatric health system. Intermountain Health Felicia and Ben Horowitz Children’s Hospital Model presented at groundbreaking for the Intermountain Health Felicia and Ben Horowitz Children’s Hospital LAS VEGAS, Oct. 27, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- For Media Use, use the following link for photos/videos: https://securedrop.intermountain.net/securedrop/public.php?service=files&t=010f47fe8a
Obama’s ‘Cheesecake Factory’ Jab Rankles Trump on Mississippi Campaign Stop
Former President Barack Obama had cast his successor as out of touch while jabbing at his extravagant sense of style. Mr. Trump responded at length.
Jay-Z Announced as 2027 Super Bowl Halftime Show Performer
It will be the eighth Super Bowl halftime show produced by Roc Nation, the entertainment and sports company founded by the rapper and businessman.
Bob Woodward Criticizes Jeff Bezos in New Memoir
Six takeaways from a new memoir by Mr. Woodward, the star Washington Post reporter, including his disappointment with the newspaper’s billionaire owner.
Appeals Court Declines to Intervene in California Ballot Lawsuit
By a 2-1 vote, a federal appeals court panel denied the Trump administration’s request that it immediately order the state to set aside 20,000 mail-in ballots.
Justice Dept. Brings More Charges Against Comey, Accusing Him of Leaks
Lawyers for James B. Comey said the case centered on an issue that had already been investigated and had not led to charges, of a purported leak of national security information to The Times in October 2016.
The Science Behind Your Reaction to Art
The Honolulu Museum of Art is showing how art can influence thinking, perspective and mood, in an exhibition that is part of a trend by museums to mix science and art.
What Is the Relationship Between Doing Good History and Entertainment?
[Cross-posted from The Tattooed Historian’s Dispatch] What exactly are we doing when we communicate history to the public? Most of us would agree that accuracy matters, evidence matters, context matters, historical rigor matters. But we also live in a world where attention matters (and attention spans are dropping at an alarming rate). Subscribe Whether we’re posting on social media, producing videos, hosting podcasts, giving public talks, or designing museum programs, we’re all competing with countless other demands on people’s time. The public doesn’t simply stumble into history anymore. Now, good history has to find people where they already are. This raises a difficult question: Is making history entertaining part of good historical practice, or is it simply what we must do to remain relevant? “Entertainment” is often treated as the opposite of seriousness. But what do we mean when we use the term itself? Does entertainment mean simplifying the historical record? Does it mean telling compelling stories in a lively manner? Is there a difference between being engaging and being entertaining? And who gets to decide where that line is? Share These questions become even more complicated online. Social media platforms reward attention. Algorithms reward engagement (the positive and the negative). Visibility often depends on producing content that people are willing to click, watch, share, and discuss. What happens when those incentives shape the way history is presented? Can historians work within those systems without letting those systems define the work? Are public audiences being served better than ever before, or are platform incentives changing what kinds of history rise to the surface? These are just a few of the issues that I discuss with John R. Heckman in our latest installment of “Historians Off the Cuff.” Feel free to suggest future topics for us to discuss in the comments section below. Hope you are entertained. LOL Civil War Memory is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Subscribe
iPhone AI Images and Edits Now Have a Hidden Watermark
Images generated with Image Playground and some photos edited with Apple Intelligence will now include a SynthID watermark. Apple announced plans to add SynthID support back in June, and the feature is live in iOS 27.2. SynthID is a Google-created tool that identifies AI-generated content. It watermarks images and videos at the pixel level instead of adding metadata. Google says it does not affect image quality and is meant to survive cropping, filters, and compression.
Watch out, YouTube; Instagram goes from short-form to 90-minute videos
As Instagram rolls out long form videos of up to 90 minutes, the platform has an opportunity to challenge YouTube if it plays its cards right.
7 Numbers That Explain Anthropic’s Business
We broke down the A.I. company’s key figures, which give insight into the health of its business, its future plans and who’s in charge.
'KPop Demon Hunters' reveals new HUNTR/X dance for TikTokkers to obsess over
"How It’s Done" is back at the top of our playlists.
Instagram chases YouTube with a push for longer, widescreen videos
Settle in for lengthy Instagram videos.
Ken Paxton’s State-Funded Jet-Setting Draws Campaign Scrutiny
Mr. Paxton, the Republican candidate for Senate in Texas, has taken about 350 trips outside of the state since he was sworn in as attorney general.
Opinion | If Democrats Win Power, What Can We Expect? A Political Scientist Thinks It Through.
Conflict? Cooperation? On the potential of divided government.
Seeing isn’t believing when deepfakes pervade politics
AI-generated videos and images are becoming inescapable and threaten to turbocharge disinformation in Georgia elections, and while the technology is new, the tactic is not.
“Breaking Bad” star RJ Mitte’s sister pays tribute to late brother: ‘I just lost my other half’
Lacianne Carriere shared photos and videos from her brother’s life on Instagram.
What Happened to the Neanderthals?
Scientists now know that they shared many of the sophisticated abilities of Homo sapiens. So why are we the only humans left standing?
Mass Effect's Commander Shepard Actors, Destiny Community Help #SaveMassEffect Petition Cross 200,000 Signatures
The #SaveMassEffect movement has picked up even more steam after videos from both Commander Shepard actors – and even posts from the Destiny community – helped its petition reach 200,000 signatures.
How Obama and Trump Made their Cases in Dueling Midterm Speeches
At rallies this weekend, Mr. Obama and Mr. Trump delivered two starkly contrasting pitches, differing in style and substance.
Trump’s Election Attacks Enter New Pre-emptive Phase
A lawsuit by the Justice Department challenging a potential narrow loss by the GOP Senate incumbent in Alaska reflects a new tactic by the president to try to shape the election results.
Bloomington business continues to blossom
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In Texas Senate Race, Talarico Leans Into Growing Rivalry With Elon Musk
On the trail, James Talarico, the Democratic Senate nominee, has increasingly gone after Mr. Musk, a critic of his who has given big to a group aligned with the Republican candidate, Ken Paxton.
Investment driving growth at NWS Crane
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Opinion | Trump Should Stay Out of Brazilian Politics
The president seems not to understand that the global standing of the United States suffers when he plays into the stereotype of the ugly American.
My Co-Worker Is Losing It Over My Religion
Plus: Reader responses to a woman returning to the office after two decades of self-employment.
Democrats Have Edge Across Four Key House Races in Pennsylvania, Polls Find
Democratic candidates are ahead in two, hold a narrow edge in a third and are tied in a fourth, new polling shows. The seats embody the fights playing out nationwide in the midterms.
The Long Life of the ‘Snacking Occasion’
As eating habits shift, the food industry is promoting any opportunity to nibble.
In Deep Red Kansas, a Trump Loyalist Fights to Defend a Senate Seat
Senator Roger Marshall was slow to recognize the steep challenge he faced in his solidly conservative state. Now he is confronting dissent among voters with deep economic worries.
An Iowa Republican’s Unusual Connection to the Kochs (and Kansas)
In his campaign for governor, Zach Lahn has pitched himself as a self-made businessman. His backstory is more complicated.
He Took Big Risks to Make Billions. He Wants Georgia Voters to Bet on Him.
Rick Jackson’s run for governor as a political nobody was his latest gamble. The campaign has brought scrutiny to the businesses that made him a fortune.
He Took Big Risks to Make Billions. He Wants Georgia Voters to Bet on Him.
Rick Jackson’s run for governor as a political nobody was his latest gamble. The campaign has brought scrutiny to the businesses that made him a fortune.
Instagram Launches Apple TV App With Reels and More
Instagram is now available on the Apple TV, bringing Reels, longer videos, and live shows via the platform to Apple's streaming device for the first time. The Instagram app for Apple TV lets users watch content from their favorite creators, discover videos, and resume watching across devices. Instagram describes the app as a way to watch together with friends and family, extending its video experience to the television. The app appears to have launched on October 23.
A New Level of Threat and Fear Risks Pushing the U.S. and Iran Back to Full War
With new intelligence and the possibility of all sides seeking pretexts for action, the war in Iran is entering a dangerous phase ahead of elections in the United States and Israel.
Trump, Who Once Called Early Voting ‘Ridiculous,’ Casts a Midterm Ballot
The president voted at a polling station in Palm Beach County, Fla.
Alaska Election Gambit Shows Justice Dept. Has Bowed to Trump’s Demands
With moves in Alaska and California, the department has stepped up interventions in the midterm elections as the president’s instrument of unmediated executive power.
AI tool REA cracks paid software: Is the software industry's business model coming to an end?
Videos with titles like “Clone Everything” and “How to Copy Any App” are currently drawing viewers in on YouTube. The open-source tool REA (Reverse Engineer Anything) is designed to analyze the code of any paid app, allowing AI to recreate the software from scratch. Could this disrupt the market? Here's a closer look.
C.E.O.s Say the A.I. Rollout Is Going Well. Employees Feel Differently.
Surveys show workers and executives have different views on A.I.
Opinion | Attempted Coups. Aging Left-Wing Incumbents. Which Country Are We Talking About?
The Brazilian echoes of American politics have become too eerie to deny.
NYT Strands Hints for October 25, 2026
Scroll down for hints and conversation about the puzzle for Sunday, Oct. 25, 2026.
‘Made by humans, not AI.’ Why Democrats are shunning fake videos in ads
A clear trend has emerged in the 2026 midterm ad wars: Republicans are embracing AI-generated videos while Democrats are betting they will backfire.
How Vivek Ramaswamy’s Ruthless Ad in Ohio Divided Republicans
The fallout from Vivek Ramaswamy’s brutal spot targeting his Democratic rival in the Ohio governor’s race showed that even in the Trump era, a political attack can be seen as going too far.
What Amy Poehler’s New Series, ‘Dig,’ Gets Right About Archaeology
To get the science right, classical archaeologists, who excavate the world of the ancient Mediterranean, consulted on the show, which also stars Hugh Laurie.
Some Buy Telescopes. These People Build Them From Scratch.
For a century, amateur telescope makers have gathered at the Stellafane convention to celebrate their craft. Will the event last another 100 years?
Iran in ‘Advanced Stages’ of Planning Attacks Against Americans, Officials Say
The U.S. government has ordered diplomats and other federal employees to leave Saudi Arabia. It is also drawing down staff at other missions in the region.
Witney Carson and Mark Ballas refused ‘to be in the same room’ during “DWTS” season 21 feud, PenaVegas claim
The professional dancers were once so close that Ballas cast Carson in one of his music videos and even planned her 21st birthday party.
NASA Is Still Aiming for the Next Moon Landing in 2028
Administrator Jared Isaacman said that the space agency was exploring ways to keep Artemis III on target without compromising safety.
What to Know About Alaska’s Senate Race
President Trump told the Justice Department to intervene in the race, where polling shows Republicans at risk of losing a seat.
France’s Avoids a Debt Downgrade From Moody’s, but Is Given a Warning
Moody’s held the country’s credit rating steady amid political uncertainty and a rise in borrowing costs that have worsened France’s debt situation.
Corey Lewandowski Always Found His Way Back to Trump. Until Now.
The Justice Department has opened an inquiry into Mr. Lewandowski. President Trump has not jumped to his defense.
Trump Advisers Give Fees Earned for Aiding Srpska to His Library
The donations from James Blair and Chris LaCivita were revealed after the president expressed pique over their consulting work for Republika Srpska.
At 90, Steve Reich Remains in Good Creative Health
New York, Reich’s hometown, still has a lot of love for him, with a staged show at the Park Avenue Armory and a birthday concert at Carnegie Hall.
Under U.S. Watch, Venezuela Grapples With Tensions Over Democracy
President Trump says Venezuela is not ready for elections, and he focuses instead on its oil. But Secretary of State Marco Rubio is nudging talks between opposing politicians.
Justice Dept. Moves to Block Certification of Alaska Senate Race Results if Republican Loses
The Justice Department, in a highly unusual court filing, argued that confusion over candidates with similar names could taint the election result.
Five Science Fiction Movies to Stream Now
In this month’s picks, alien encounters, sinister deepfakes, fantastical time loops and postapocalyptic woe.
Karen Bass Climbed L.A.’s Political Ladder. Then a Fire Changed Everything.
The mayor of Los Angeles, who has never lost an election, is now in the fight of her political life.
OPINION: Childhood food memories triumph over politics
The political flyers overflowing my mailbox, the pop-up videos overwhelming my mood every time I check sports scores on a website, the campaign ads overpowering my senses when I listen to my favorite commercial radio stations, they are making October a thoroughly depressing and miserable month.
There’s a Reason That Netflix’s Ad Business Has Underwhelmed
Somewhat lost in the company’s slew of firings and engagement warnings over the past few weeks was the fact that Netflix is scaling back its ad forecast for 2026 from $3 billion to $2.7 billion. That’s despite the fact that: CTV is growing by 14-15% this year This year saw a monster upfront Netflix is the biggest streamer out there this side of YouTube, and was the platform that for years brands were supposedly dying to be a part of In other words, that’s an alarming pull-back from Netflix. A Wall Street analyst I spoke with last week was blunt, calling Netflix’s ad business “disappointing.” To me, a red flag on the ad front is that Netflix has never revealed how many ad-supported subscribers it has. Because if I know anything about how big companies work, if they have a positive number that makes them look really good - they tend to share it. (How many subs does go90 have right now? We’re not saying just yet. How are ads going on ChatGPT? Oh, a billion run rate - I see). Yes, to date Netflix has shared some fuzzy ad numbers, such as the idea that the company’s ad tier ‘reaches’ 250 million users globally.’ Here’s why that figure gives me pause: a)they lead with global, and b) they don’t explain how they are calculated. (Are they based on average people in each room? Surveys of some kind?). Regardless, some insiders say that Netflix’s ad tier is scaling nicely - others not so much. Either way, one of Netflix’s biggest challenge on the ad front appears to have been its starting point. Remember, when Netflix launched ads in 2022, it had 73 million subs in the US and Canada. That’s 73 million people who were used to Netflix with zero ads. And when the ad product rolled out, the company clearly was going after new users - a limited pool of potential subscribers by default. That focus seems to have changed over time, as Netflix has tried to convert longtime subscribers to the ad tier. Historically Netflix subscribers are very sticky. But is the company’s low churn a problem? Not necessarily, according to Antenna data. Rather, Netflix’s consumer loyalty is a bit of a double-edged sword. “Netflix is the one streamer which actually has seen substantial “trade downs” but has much lower ‘win backs,’ said Antenna founder Jonathan Carson (win-backs being people who were on the ad-free plan, cancelled, then rejoined on the ad plan). “Netflix has lower churn and so has less opportunity to win back old subs with a lower cost plan option.” This all might explain why Netflix has been so slow to roll out all of these table stakes targeting options until just this week. It likely didn’t have enough users to carve up into various targets. etc. However, what really hit Netflix’s ad business was Amazon’s move a few years ago to turn on advertising for Prime Video by default. Suddenly the market was awash in premium inventory, and Netflix was playing catch-up on multiple fronts. Thus, the streaming giant appears to still be figuring out if if wants lead in ‘programmatic TV,’ or premium ‘upfront’ TV sales. “The CTV market now sorts into three businesses, and Netflix is not the leader of any of them,” wrote analyst Jack Myers. Ouch. So how does Netflix ratchet up its ads business? Get the next NFL package You’re gonna have to wait until 2030 unless one of the bigger media companies like Skydance opts out, but the easiest (not cheapest) way for Netflix to become a huge TV ads contender is to get one of the regular NFL packages, ideally Sunday afternoons. That way it can sell ads to its whole U.S. subs base overnight. Go FAST This one is risky, because to program a compelling FAST channel, you’d likely have to take some older Netflix exclusive shows and make them available for free to non-subscribers. But FASTs, for better or worse, are ad-inventory machines. Go full UGC I’m not sure I see this happening. There is something already off about Netflix carrying podcasts and shows for creators. The experience sticks out in what is such a produced, and generally non-communal environment. But Netflix could open up its platform by allowing creators to upload videos without having to be approved by the service. But that opens a whole other can of worms (policing brand safety, copyright infringement, overall quality). Make a huge RMN Deal I was going to suggest something crazy, such as ‘instead of buying Warner Brothers, Netflix should buy Target. But the company doesn’t want to be in the brick and mortar business. Yet for Netflix’s ad business to compete in an Amazon world, it needs to be able to connect ad exposures to shopping. What if, instead of letting Amazon target Netflix viewers with its DSP, Netflix inked a deal with Target, or even took control of Roundel, and created its version of the Amazon full-funnel for brands? Price us out. I hope they don’t do this, but Netflix’s price increases - while significant - haven’t been enough to push long-term customers out of the ad-free tier. But if they made those prices so prohibitive, it could push large swaths of consumers to trade down. Then again, that could also dent engagement - as binging becomes much less appealing once you bring ads into the equation. Or, they could just launch a bunch of hit shows and maybe everyone will quickly forget all this angst. More from Amazon unBoxed A few weeks ago, I recorded two podcasts live at Amazon’s unBoxed event in San Francisco. I was able to go really deep with several brand partners about how Amazon’s various data and ad products work - particularly the under appreciated Amazon Marketing Cloud. First, I talked with Laura Abadias Velilla, of the Amazon specialty agency Amerge, along with Amazon’s own Charlotte Maines, Vice President, Devices Content & Advertising, about how the two partners helped a very specific printer company Epson launch into a brand new category - high end projectors. It’s a great example of how brands connect audience data across platforms to make budget deployment decisions. Next, I chatted with Monks VP Head of Digital Investment for North America Tom Burchill about how the agency actually brought in data from Linkedin to help target B2B customers across various Amazon properties for the brand Quicken. Check it out: Check these out, or just listen:
Maria Bamford on showbiz and 'Paralyzed by Hope'
The stand-up comedian's new documentary is now on Netflix.
Stream CW Sports Videos on Watch ESPN
Stream the latest CW Sports videos on Watch ESPN. Your streaming home for all CW Sports events - NASCAR, WWE NXT, College Football/Basketball and more.
How the Decline of Western NY Defined Kathy Hochul’s Politics
Gov. Kathy Hochul’s vision for New York has been largely shaped by her upbringing in a failing western New York town and her family’s move up from a trailer park to affluence.
Pete Ricketts’s Wealth Puts Class at the Center of Nebraska’s Senate Race
In a year when the wealth of the rich soared while workers lost ground to inflation, class has become political, especially in the Nebraska Senate race.
Trump Asked Musk to Reverse Limits on Ukraine’s Military Internet Use
The call from the president about the Starshield network came after officials in Ukraine reported that they found new limits on the use of military drones in their war against Russia.
Bernie Sanders Gives $1 Million to Bolster El-Sayed and Counter AIPAC in Michigan
The transfer came day after the news that the pro-Israel lobby was planning to contribute as much as $9 million to defeat the Democratic nominee for Senate.
What Dueling Visits by Ocasio-Cortez and Manchin Say About Maine’s Senate Race
Senator Susan Collins, a Republican in a tight race, is keying her closing pitch to the middle, while her progressive challenger, Troy Jackson, is seeking to excite the left.
Justice Dept. Opens Inquiry Into Corey Lewandowski
The details of the inquiry remain unclear, but it is one of the rare instances in which a Trump ally or appointee has been investigated for potential wrongdoing during the president’s second term.
Key Trump Health Adviser Resigns Ahead of Midterm Elections
Calley Means, who helped unite Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and President Trump, pushed food reforms but grew frustrated with stalled progress on the MAHA agenda.
Key Trump Health Adviser Resigns Ahead of Midterm Elections
Calley Means, who helped unite Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and President Trump, pushed food reforms but grew frustrated with stalled progress on the MAHA agenda.
Opinion | Should We Shut Down Business Schools?
Readers discuss a professor’s Opinion essay that suggested doing so. Also: Children without lawyers at deportation hearings; legal rights for robots?
Is Citizens United to blame for everything?
Plus: The justices’ book deals mean the court can’t rule on cases involving a media conglomerate.
Powerful Virginia Lawmaker Indicted Over Marijuana Business
L. Louise Lucas, a Democrat from Portsmouth, was the focus of F.B.I. searches earlier this year.
Tepper Sports & Entertainment Selects Marsh and Partners Risk Strategies as Insurance Brokers for Bank of America Stadium’s Multi-Year Transformation
The official website of the Carolina Panthers with access to tickets, schedules, news, videos, photos, statistics and more.
Tepper Sports & Entertainment Selects Marsh and Partners Risk Strategies as Insurance Brokers for Bank of America Stadium’s Multi-Year Transformation
The official website of the Carolina Panthers with access to tickets, schedules, news, videos, photos, statistics and more.
How a Legal Backlash Against Big Tech Is Forcing Big Changes
A series of lawsuits has created a new de facto regulatory regime as courts order companies like Meta and Google to change their business practices — and pay up.
Employers Shift Rising Health Care Costs Onto Millions of Workers
New surveys show that increases in premiums and deductibles are forcing people to forgo treatments or doctor’s visits while budgets are strained by higher food and gas prices.
Serbian Election Underscores the Region’s Long Political Limbo
Aleksandar Vucic, Serbia’s dominant political figure since 2012, may extend his grip, using the Balkans’ unresolved nationalist resentments.
Chris Pappas Could Make History in New Hampshire’s Senate Race
Chris Pappas, the Democratic nominee in New Hampshire, would be the first openly gay man in the Senate. On the campaign trail, he doesn’t dwell on it.
Video: Opinion | Inside the White House’s Push for More A.I.
The Trump administration’s plan to supercharge scientific discovery.
Farmers, Health Care and Highways: 5 Takeaways from the Kansas Senate Debate
The Republican incumbent, Roger Marshall, is facing a surprisingly tough challenge from the Democratic nominee, Adam Hamilton.
Tracking tsunamis triggered by extreme weather
As much of Western Europe faced record-breaking temperatures and extended drought this summer, Croatia experienced another weather event that could also set a worrisome precedent.Over the course of two weeks, a series of meteorological tsunamis (meteotsunamis) struck Croatia’s Adriatic coast, alarming both residents and tourists. Social media posts showed flooded seaside promenades and people walking through knee-deep water. Fortunately, no deaths or major damage were reported.In a world where natural disasters seem to be increasing, meteotsunamis — tsunamis caused by rapid weather changes – rarely make headline news. But warming sea temperatures and changing atmospheric conditions may help explain why these phenomena could become more common, especially in shallower seas and inland lakes with wide coastal shelves.“We have definitely become more aware of them, and there have been a lot more reports of these events in the last 10 years,” says Jadranka Šepić, an associate professor of environmental physics at the University of Split whose research focuses on efforts to track meteotsunamis in real time. She is also one of Croatia’s ambassadors for Science Comes to Town (SCTT), a European Commission-funded programme aimed at making research more accessible to the public.Šepić sees two possible reasons for the apparent increase in meteotsunamis. One is that photos and videos shared on social media are providing more empirical evidence, while rising air and sea temperatures could also play a role. The geophysicist “cannot say with certainty” that warming is a contributing factor because research is still ongoing. “But I can say that previously in Croatia we might have had one exceptionally strong event every 10 or 15 years, and one strong event every five years, and within 15 days this summer we had five strong events,” Šepić notes. “This is not typical.”‘A fist against the sea surface’Unlike tsunamis that are triggered by underwater earthquakes or volcanoes, meteotsunamis are caused by sudden changes in atmospheric pressure combined with other rapidly developing weather events, such as thunderstorms. The effect “is like pushing a fist against the sea surface,” Šepić explains. The resulting oscillation intensifies as it reaches shallower water, and “can be far more destructive than a wind-driven wave because meteotsunamis are accompanied by very strong currents than can penetrate much deeper inland.” The meteotsunami, she continues, “then behaves the same as a tsunami — they slow down and grow as the sea shallows, and then grow further in places like harbours due to further shallowing and narrowing. When they come ashore, they can be very destructive — taking everything with them out to sea and then taking it back.”Croatian research institutions have tracked such sea oscillations since the 1930s because the relatively shallow Adriatic Sea is prone to meteotsunamis. The strongest recorded so far was in June 1978, according to the Adriatic Meteotsunami Catalogue, which is supported by the European Research Council (ERC), Croatian Science Foundation and the country’s leading research institutions. During that event, six-metre-high waves flooded the coastal town of Vela Luka on Korčula Island, causing major damage.Other meteotsunami “hotspots” in Europe include the Mediterranean Sea as well the Atlantic coastal shelves off France, Portugal and Spain. In June 2006, a meteotsunami with five-metre-high waves swept through the harbour of Ciutadella in Spain’s Balearic Islands, causing widespread damage to boats. Several less powerful events were reported in the Balearics and off the coast of Spain this summer, leading to some beach closures.Forecasting is challenging because of how quickly meteotsunamis can develop and their uncertain trajectory. Šepić is involved in two ERC-funded research projects — SHExtreme and MeD-Track — aimed in part at strengthening monitoring and real-time data collection. Access to accurate and immediate information is essential for early-warning systems.Early exposure to meteotsunamisŠepić first learned about meteotsunamis from her parents while growing up in Croatia. She later had the opportunity to investigate these events during her master and doctoral studies in geophysics at the University of Zagreb. The geophysicist has also conducted research at the Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries in Split, the University of the Balearic Islands in Palma de Mallorca and the Institute of Ocean Science in the Canadian province of British Columbia.Projects like SCTT are important to raise awareness about research and inspiring young people to pursue studies and careers in science, notes Šepić. She credits her colleagues at the University of Split and the Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries for their community outreach and engagement in the European project, which includes partner universities and institutions in Brest (France) and Kiel (Germany). As an example of town-gown collaboration, Šepić highlights her own university’s ‘Oceanographers on the Island’ programme. This initiative offers workshops and hands-on learning for children living on numerous Croatian islands.“It is a great privilege for Split to be involved in a project like Science Comes to Town, which is the first of its kind in the European Union," Šepić says. As for encouraging new generations of scientists, “This is a great effort, and I hope that we will see an effect in a few years.”Science|Business, which connects policymakers, academics and industry through its news reporting, analysis and events, is an SCTT partner.