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Netflix’s Leadership Shake Up…Explained
(Welcome to the “Most Important Story of the Week”, my bi-weekly strategy column analyzing the most important (but often not buzziest) news story of the last two weeks. I’m the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a former streaming executive who now analyzes business strategy in the entertainment industry. Please subscribe.) Well, I had a simple article planned for this week. Called “Whoa, I Missed It!”, I’d take a gander at a few important-but-under-the-radar stories I didn’t cover while I wrote about all things “Skydance. (Formerly known as “the saga of Netflix trying to buy Warner Bros., but not Discovery, then Paramount-Skydance bought all of Warner Bros. Discovery”.) Alas, that article will have to wait. Netflix made news. Ironically, my “Whoa, I Missed It!” article would have mostly been about “content” strategy decisions, which is also what today’s article is about. But instead of the entire industry, this article will only cover Netflix’s decision to upend their film and TV content teams. Just that! So that’s the full topic of the day. I’m going to tackle the issue in the opposite direction of the way “stuff” flows: uphill. We’ll start at film, then move onto TV, and then onto the CEOs themselves, and the strategy questions that still remain. But we start with the numbers driving this. Let’s dive in. Subscribe Most Important Story of the Week - Netflix Upends Their Corporate Hierarchy I’ve got a lot of thoughts, but we’ll start with the most common response to yesterday’s article. Let’s Talk Stock Price More than one person, responding to what I published two days ago, pointed out that, well, actually, the thing driving Netflix’s actions is this: In short, stock price! Even if Netflix isn’t obsessed with their own share price—they probably are, but, for the record, my strategic advice to every CEO is to absolutely ignore stock prices, which will, ironically, probably help the stock price long-term—most everyone thinks they are. By the way, I prefer market capitalization to stock prices, because it’s a more apples-to-apples way to compare companies: But there’s an even better way to look at it, and it kinda casts some doubt on the entire push here: price-to-earnings. I have a long list of articles that I wish I had written, and chief among them is an article titled, “Am I Still a Netflix ‘Bear’?” meaning someone who thinks Netflix’s stock is overvalued. As of last summer, Netflix had solved their biggest problem—which for me (circa 2019) was the lack of free cash flow—but their stock was CRAZY overvalued. That’s this chart here: Why did Netflix’s stock price increase to a price-to-earnings ratio of 50 last summer? What financial metric changed so quickly? Nothing. Given that, historically, mature entertainment companies average 10 to 20, with 16 being the average, that increase made little sense. Netflix’s stock swoon these last eight or so months wasn’t irrational; the stock price rise last year was. So if you want a really hot Netflix take, here it is: Netflix’s stock price has been going down because the financial industry recovered its senses, not because of any strategic mistake. Yes, that would imply that cleaning house may have been a mistake. That’s why the charts yesterday are so important, because they show that Netflix did have a strategic problem (a lack of hits) and that’s what they moved to address. (One could also argue the industry drastically overrated Netflix’s growth prospects, but that’s a financial industry problem, not a Netflix strategy problem per se. Some growth estimates are just crazy. *cough* AI *cough*) Now, the last time Netflix’s stock price crashed—circa 2022—it gave them an opening. I’d argue Netflix insiders knew they needed to expand post-COVID-19 crisis, adding advertising, cracking down on password sharing, and dabbling in sports. But if they had done that when their stock price was high, it would give folks a reason to second guess their strategy. (Arguably, last year, when Netflix pursued the Warner Bros. merger, it gave the industry a chance to review their business.) Instead, after the 2022 fall, they had the opening to make strategic changes. We may see Netflix pivot again following this latest slide. For example, the “binge versus weekly” conversation is alive and well again. Same for expanding into theaters even more. And adding both linear channels and streaming bundles. And maybe more either social, user-generated, vertical, or creator content. But the first shift came with who is making the content calls. A Message from Our Sponsor Last winter Pulp Fiction was on Netflix. For those same 90 days, it was also free, with ads, on Pluto TV and the Roku Channel. That is not a glitch, and it is not rare. The title has run on 20 different US streaming services since 2019, across 80 separate windows, and for more than 600 of those days it sat on a paid subscription service and a free ad-supported one at the same time. Almost nobody can see this, because when a title leaves a service, the record that it was ever there tends to leave with it. Reelgood keeps that record, dated to the day rather than the month: 4MM+ movie, show and episode titles across 300+ services globally, with timestamped arrivals, departures and moves across SVOD, AVOD, TVOD and vMVPD. Licensing teams price against every prior window. Rights teams check what a licensee actually delivered, and when. Pick a title you think you know: data.reelgood.com/title-availability Film - Dan Lin Want to know why I don’t opine on individual film or TV executives, especially new hires? Dan Lin. As I always caution, it’s really, really, really tough to predict which executives will succeed in new roles and which won’t. The successful head of co-production/finance partner, Rideback, Lin was considered for the head of DC Studios job before taking the job as the head of Netflix. By all accounts at the time, this was a smart hire. (That’s my read of the news coverage anyways.) But now that Netflix has fired Dan Lin, we got a slew of news stories about how he was doing a terrible job. In sports media, Bryan Curtis, new Substack writer/podcaster from The Ringer, calls this the “now you tell us” story, when you only hear the bad news after a star athlete leaves a sports team. In this case, now they tell us that Dan Lin was bad with talent after he got kicked out the door. So was Dan Lin a flop? It’s actually tough to say. While film moves faster than TV, even two years isn’t really enough time to evaluate a person’s output. The new head hasn’t really taken control. As Emily Horgan noted, it takes much longer than two years to produce animated films, so yeah, it’s definitely too early to judge in that domain. As for live-action films, I just published an article by Brandon Katz called “Netflix’s Summer of Bummer”, but I’d point out Netflix had a bad summer two years ago too. Arguably, their best summer came from KPop Demon Hunters last year and Happy Gilmore 2, the latter of which I saw credited to Lin. Then, the stories came out that Dan Lin clashed with talent, both Ben Affleck and Greta Gerwig, classic “now they tell us” factoids to explain his firing. This may have been true, but also should have been expected given that he was given the mandate to bring budgets back in check, especially after Rebel Moon. So if he made folks upset, well, that’s what he was hired to do! But also, he was described as “well-liked” at his hiring! In that case, I’m a bit sympathetic to Lin, since he may have been undercut by senior leadership, as often happens. Basically, a CEO hires a subordinate to be their “bad cop” and keep budgets in check, but then when talent complains, the CEO ends up undercutting them. That’s how I think you end up with a Narnia movie as expensive as any of the other flops, along with a film executive the town no longer likes. As a result, I think that Netflix is now executing a classic “hire the opposite” move by hiring Peter Rice. This phrase comes from my experience following football and basketball coaching decisions, where teams generally hire the opposite of who they just had. If you have an offense-minded head coach, hire the defensive guy. Or in college football, if you have a strong recruiter, then you pivot to an “X’s and Os” type of guy. Or in pro basketball, if you have a very analytically minded coach, you hire the player-friendly guy. I see that here. After dropping Scott Stuber—arguably a talent-friendly executive with lax budget control—Netflix hired the business guy to keep costs in check. Now Netflix is pivoting back to Peter Rice and presumably a more talent-friendly regime. (Disney, by the way, has done this twice: hiring business guys to succeed talent-friendly Bob Iger. It didn’t work out last time.) When it comes to Peter Rice…we’ll see! Maybe he works out, but maybe he doesn’t. I’d actually say the biggest problem is that Netflix still hasn’t solved its “IP Problem”, in that they don’t own much IP, so they just have a lower hit rate. The new executive won’t solve that. (Though buying Lionsgate would help.) Share “Content” - Bela Bajaria I almost published yesterday’s article after this column, but ended up flipping the order, because it told the story so well. So if you want the data for why Netflix is looking at TV to fix their problems, it’s in that article, this graph in particular: I know I just wrote that it’s often hard to judge executives, but Bajaria ran TV for six years and film for three and a half more. That’s more than enough to judge hit rates, and Netflix needs more hits. That’s the story. Since 2023, Netflix hasn’t had as many hit shows as it used to, and many of its previous power house TV shows have ended their runs (Stranger Things most of all). Also, many shows from 2020 to 2022 probably pre-dated Bajaria’s tenure. (That said, one thing may have been outside of Bajaria’s control, which I explain below.) Let’s lump some content strategy thoughts about Netflix and TV into one place: We’re just getting started with this issue, but the rest is for paid subscribers of the Entertainment Strategy Guy, so if you’d like to find out… Why I partially blame Squid Game for Netflix’s latest troubles… What is “the football trap”... Why it might not be the TV shows or films’ fault at all… What change I don’t think Netflix will make... How Bela Bajaria evolved Netflix’s TV strategy in smart ways… Whose departure likely submarined Bajaria’s final few years… One sneaky explanation for Netflix’s content struggles... And a whole lot more... ...please subscribe! We can only keep doing this great work with your support.
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How well have past GOTY winners sold?
We’re less than two months away from 2026’s The Game Awards, and what a year it’s been for fantastic games, including Resident Evil Requiem, Forza Horizon 6, Slay the Spire II, the Blood of Dawnwalker, and Control Resonant – just to name a few. So as we approach the end of the year, we thought we’d look back on our estimates for the GOTY winners of the past four years. In terms of revenue, Elden Ring (2022 winner), Baldur’s Gate 3 (2023), Astro Bot (2024), and Expedition 33 (2025) have generated a combined $3.8B via 73M copies sold: Let’s have a look, then. Elden Ring has generated $2B in revenue Elden Ring is a phenomenon in every sense. It’s sold a whopping 36.4M copies across Steam (50%), PS5 (35%), and Xbox (15% across console and PC). Want more free estimates and insights in your inbox twice a week? Subscribe below! Subscribe Elden Ring also just passed an astronomical milestone: $2B in revenue. While PlayStation and Xbox account for half of Elden Ring’s copies sold across these three platforms, they account for 57.5% of revenue. This – as ever – is due to regional pricing and the higher relative share of PC gamers in lower-priced markets. For example, around 17.4% of Elden Ring’s Steam copies sold were in China, where the game costs about 26% less than the price in the States. There’s an … interesting narrative going around these days that console gamers are only interested in ball-and-gun games and have the patience for little else. Well, Elden Ring’s impressive sales prove that is simply not true, and across all platforms. What’s more, over 9.8M people have played Elden Ring for over 100 hours, with nearly 3.5M people getting all of the achievements and trophies. For reference, 10.9% of Elden Ring’s PlayStation players have the platinum trophy, while 10.5% of players on Steam and 3.9% of Xbox players unlocked all the achievements. Git gud, Xbox players! Of the 1.5M people who played Elden Ring on PlayStation last month, 4% also played Dark Souls 3 last month, 4% played Bloodborne, and 3% played Sekiro. There’s those Soulsborne diehards for you. By many accounts, including my own, Elden Ring is one of the best games of all time. It’s an evergreen seller that will continue to be a cash cow for Bandai and FromSoftware for years to come. Want more free estimates and insights in your inbox twice a week? Subscribe below! Subscribe Elden Ring has sold another 2M copies across Steam, PlayStation, and Xbox this year, generating almost $110M. This means it’s outperforming many of this year’s high-profile releases. Even Elden Ring’s standalone run-based PvE spinoff, 2025’s Nightreign, has sold 7.8M copies and generated $282M in revenue. Baldur’s Gate 3 is another billion-dollar-plus banger Another cross-platform phenomenon is Baldur’s Gate 3, which has sold 23.2M copies and generated over $1.2B in revenue. About 18.7M of these copies (80.6%) are via Steam, 2.9M via PS5 (12.7%), and 1.6M (6.8%) via Xbox. Around 1.3M folks on Steam bought BG3 before it hit 1.0. The PlayStation version launched about a month after the PC 1.0 release, while the Xbox version came four months later due to technical issues around developing local co-op on the Series S. Want more free estimates and insights in your inbox twice a week? Subscribe below! Subscribe Across platforms, Baldur’s Gate 3’s monthly active users have never dropped below 2M, including 2.2M MAUs last month (68.5% on Steam, 21.9% on PS5, and 9.6% on Xbox). And it still regularly brings in 280K to 400K players every day: About 1% of BG3’s Steam player base has played for over 500 hours! That’s a little under 200K people. Astro Bot is also an evergreen seller, albeit a more niche, family one Astro Bot, 2024’s winner, has now sold 4.7M copies and generated $291M in revenue. The budget, including marketing, is almost certainly under $100M, given the small Japan-based core team and three-year dev timeline. You can really see why the tides are changing toward less expensive hubs. Astro Bot is the only first-party winner on this list, but follows other first-party winners of The Last of Us Part II (2020’s winner), God of War (2018), and Breath of the Wild (2017). Around 46.6% of Astro Bot’s copies sold have been physical, which is far higher than the typical game. This makes sense for a couple of reasons: There’s a large family audience for this one, and physical boxes are an item to wrap when giving Astro as a gift. Astro has collector value for the PlayStation core (this is nostalgia-fueled platformer celebrating PlayStation’s history) Want more free estimates and insights in your inbox twice a week? Subscribe below! Subscribe Astro is another one of those games that continues selling over time, regularly selling more than 100K a month. It’s sold around 1M more copies this year ($60M in revenue) and is a popular title with families. We can see this using the Alinea platform’s MAU crossover tool: Astro Bot’s top #2, #3, and #4 games by crossover in any given month this year are Minecraft, Fortnite, and Roblox – without fail. The #1 title every month, though, is Astro’s Playroom, a pack-in with all PS5 consoles. For every month this year, between 20% and 30% of Astro Bot players also played Astro’s Playroom that month. So the free pack-in is a noice funnel for converting players to a full paid product. Expedition 33 sells 8.7M despite Game Pass cannibalisation Finally, we have last year’s winner – Expedition 33. The turn-based-RPG banger has generated $366M via 8.7M copies sold, with 58.8% on Steam, 35.7% on PS5, and 5.5% on Xbox. Xbox’s share of copies sold is this low due to Expedition 33 launching on Game Pass, where 4.3M people across console and PC accessed the game. A little under 700K Xbox players used their subscription to play Expedition 33 this year. That said, the game’s 1.5-year Game Pass deal ended last week on October 16, and we’re already beginning to see a positive trend on Expedition 33’s copies sold via Xbox (but the jury’s still out!). There’s understandably a lot of French pride behind this one, as France is the game’s #3 market on both Steam and PlayStation. Vive la France! One thing that stood out to me is that the GOTY winners aren’t $300M Hollywood productions made in the US. They’re mostly mid-budget studios outside the traditional AAA cost centres. Lots to think about there. Also, good games sell well; who’d have thunk it!? And there’s a whole load of them this year, with GTA 6 still to come, too. GTA just made the cutoff point for the VGAs this year. What a coincidence! Loading... Cool links and other stuff Our physical games newsletter from Tuesday was picked up by GameSpot, Eurogamer, TweakTown, and a bunch of others. We’re offering a free trial of our platform for games companies. Send us a message here, or reply right here on Substack/email, and we’ll set you up. Next week, we’ve got some exciting news regarding the future of our newsletter, so stay tuned! The last word Reply to this email – or reach out here – if you have any feedback for the newsletter – or want to request a game for us to cover. Want to see why these companies (and many others) are subscribed to Alinea? Get a free platform trial! [Alinea Analytics boasts the most accurate PC and console estimates in the business. Game makers use our platform to understand their audience, keep an eye on the competition, monitor sales trends, and spot new opportunities. We equip game studios and financial institutions with accurate data and the confidence to make smarter, data-driven decisions. Want to talk about all things games market data? We’d love to chat!]
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The AMD Ryzen AI Halo is great at running local AI workloads, featuring a Ryzen AI Max+ 395 APU with 128 GB of unified memory in a compact form factor. It excels at handling large models, enabling tasks that most consumer GPUs struggle with. With AMD AI Playbooks, getting started is simple, allowing you to explore the frontier of AI at home.
Health and Human Services nurses win Public Health Award
Two Gunnison County Health and Human Services public health nurses, Shonna Gray and Amelia Meyer, were awarded the Exemplary Public Health Nurse Award at the recent Public Health in the Rockies …
Toon2Tango to Lead Global Licensing and Merchandising for Mediawan Kids & Family Slate, Including Titles Like ‘Astro Boy’ Reboot (EXCLUSIVE)
Mediawan Kids & Family, Europe’s leading independent studio for the production and distribution of children’s and family content, and Toon2Tango, the German kids and family entertainment powerhouse, h...
How the Brewers got to the World Series
Despite playing in MLB's smallest market, the Brewers posted the best record in the majors for a second straight year, earned their eighth playoff berth in nine seasons and won a fourth straight NL Central title.
Novak Djokovic Set for Basel Return After 15 Years
24-time Major champion Novak Djokovic is all set to make a surprise addition to his season this year. The Serbian, who won his 102nd ATP Tour title in Beijing a couple of weeks ago, has announced that he will be taking part in the ATP 500 in Basel later this month, marking his return to …
State health officials urge Virginians to get flu shots as some states show early surge of infections
About 10% of residents have received a flu shot so far this year.
ITZY's Chaeryeong to make solo debut with mini album 'Lovesick' on Nov. 9
Chaeryeong of K-pop girl group ITZY will make her solo debut on Nov. 9 with a mini album, titled “Lovesick,” with the lead track of the same name,...
'Star Wars: Galactic Racer Was Made By A Core Team Of 75 People'
Over 1000 people are in the credits, though
Understanding Colorado’s unusual 2026 elections
Not too long ago, Colorado was a “red” state (Republican) politically. But now the state is considered a decidedly "blue" state.
Business Briefcase: MAEA schedules HR roundtable
POTTSVILLE — The Northeast Pennsylvania Manufacturers and Employers Association, 250 One Norwegian Plaza, will stage an HR Schuylkill roundtable 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. Nov. 6 titled, “We Did It Right … And Still Faced Backlash: When Good HR Deci…
Jalen Williams' health, Chet Holmgren's resilience among top storylines for OKC Thunder
The OKC Thunder faces a new season with roster changes and questions about their path back to the NBA title. Here are five key storylines.
Chinese scientists develop nanoparticles to improve pesticide
In a study published in the Journal of Controlled Release, researchers mimicked gut bacteria pili-hair-like structures that function as hooks-to design hollow, rough-surfaced silica nanoparticles
Rays defeat Guardians to level MLB playoff series
The Tampa Bay Rays scored a series-leveling 7-3 victory over the Cleveland Guardians on Saturday to reignite their dream of a first World Series crown.Tampa Bay -- one of only five Major League Baseball teams never to win a World Series title -- squared their best-of-seven American League Championship series at 2-2 with a gutsy victory in Cleveland.
Earth's Core Is Leaking All Sorts of Materials That Have Been Trapped Since Our Planet's Birth
Earth is belching up the materials of the Solar System's birth.
Freeland Elementary Middle School students enjoy magic show
On Oct. 7, Freeland Elementary Middle School’s fourth-, fifth-, and sixth-grade students, along with their parents, enjoyed an exciting presentation by Joe Romano, titled ‘Is It Magic or Science?’ Through fun…
California's billionaire tax promises healthcare relief. The fine print is murkier
It’s unclear how much money Prop. 40 would raise, how quickly the funding would become available, and how lawmakers would spend it.
Knicks’ Season Opener: 3 Things To Watch Against 76ers
In the New York Knicks' season opener, the team will begin their quest to defend the NBA title. There will be no easing into things over the Knicks' first 10 games. In particular, when they welcome the Philadelphia 76ers to Madison Square Garden on Tuesday, Oct. 20, they'll be facing a revamped opponent with plenty …
Germany win over 80 World Cup
Germany's over 80 team has won the inaugural World Cup title in Australia and said that this success goes beyond football. "We need to ensure that more older people take part in sport," player Michael Rätsch from Hertha Berlin told dpa.
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(ANALYSIS) Political shamelessness threatens democracy by weakening leaders’ respect for ethical principles and the rule of law. Drawing on Plato’s Laws, this article explores reverence as a virtue that encourages humility, self-restraint and recognition of human limitations, arguing that responsibl
A Look at the Computer Science Degree in 2026
In 2018, a student published an article in this paper titled “YC’s Computer Science Major is on the Rise.” His piece proved prescient for the next four years, as enrollment in Intro to Computer Science continued to increase, indicating a growing interest in the field. Enrollment in this introductory course in Yeshiva College reached an […]
Five Stones 20th Anniversary A Celebration Of People, Consistency
And those traits were cited Thursday at Five Stones Research’s 20th anniversary celebration.
Kendall A. Schnurpel: The line between nonprofit advocacy and political activity
The executive director has already shared both items on her personal Facebook page, which lists her title.
Real Estate And Economics Forum Focuses On Growth, Partnerships
The Alabama Center for Real Estate, part of the University of Alabama’s Culverhouse School of Business, held its eighth annual Rocket City Real Estate and
Title revealed for “The Mummy” sequel featuring the onscreen reunion of Brendan Fraser and Rachel Weisz
The franchise’s fourth installment is a direct sequel to 1999’s “The Mummy” and 2001 sequel, “The Mummy Returns.”
Math Professor Secures National Science Foundation Grant to Advance Math Education
Professor of Mathematics, Dr. Dana Clahane, was recently awarded a federal grant of $499,893 by the National Science Foundation (NSF). A prestigious award, the grant will elevate undergraduate mathematics education in a project titled “Building Mathematics Research Communities at Two-Year Colleges” (BMRCTYC). Over the next three years, BMRCTYC will establish local Mathematics Research Communities at eight... Read more »
Pelosi, Sewell join Alabama health care advocates to discuss rising costs and coverage cuts
James and Andrea Phillips say the cost of coverage puts doctor visits out of reach as they manage serious health problems. Their story was at the center of roundtable on health care access.
Footage from a reportedly cancelled Assassin’s Creed game set in China has leaked
The title known as ‘Assassin’s Creed Destiny’ was allegedly cancelled by Ubisoft…
Commentary: Mainers are tired of dark money and the rigged horse race
Allegations that U.S. Sen. Susan Collins was being investigated by the FBI for a potential connection to a pay-for-play scheme until President Donald Trump purged the bureau’s anti-corruption unit, to some observers, seemed like a political bombshell destined to crater the senator’s re-election efforts. But based on conversations with several Maine voters, the ProPublica investigation […]
'Jeff Corwin’s Southern Wild' episode features Pamlico County
The second episode of biologist Jeff Corwin's new television series "Jeff Corwin's Southern Wild," titled "Wildlife After Dark," features a segment on red drum research, a protected game fish and
Overbay's brace lifts Science Hill to District 1-AAA title
Brenna Overbay scored two goals in a span of 17 minutes to lift Science Hill over Tennessee High.
Overbay's brace lifts Science Hill to District 1-AAA title
Brenna Overbay scored two goals in a span of 17 minutes to lift Science Hill over Tennessee High.
Remedy Boss Reacts After Control Resonant Sells 1 Million Copies, Becoming Studio's Fastest-Selling Game
Control Resonant has sold one million copies, becoming Remedy’s fastest-selling game in spite of leakers cracking the title and pirating it after its digital launch in September.
Political heavyweights campaign in Michigan amid crucial Senate race
The most recent Decision Desk HQ polling numbers show El-Sayed holds a 4% advantage over Rogers.
Chiefs Should Fear Buffalo Most, Not The Chargers
Arrowhead Pride ranks the AFC threats. The Bills top the list as the only team that can truly challenge Kansas City for the title this season.
Report: Cancelled “Assassin’s Creed Destiny” Unveiled in First Screenshots & Gameplay Footage
The Assassin’s Creed series is still on course to return to China for the first time since its modest 2.5D spin-off in 2015, now with the mobile-exclusive title Assassin’s Creed…