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Xabi Alonso disagrees with Chelsea player over controversial penalty decision
Levil Colwill was penalised for a foul on Brian Brobbey and then hauled off at half-tiem
The big questions we get answered by today’s Alonso selection
Injuries have forced Xabi Alonso into changes today, creating opportunities for some players to shine.If you enjoy Talk Chelsea coverage and want to see more of it, add us as a preferred source on Goo...
Pep Chavarria Injury Status for Chelsea vs Tottenham Confirmed
Xabi Alonso has been nursing some injuries since his arrival at Chelsea. The international break provided a good break in play to get a number of his key men back fit including Moises Caicedo, Cole Palmer, and Joao Pedro. The good times only lasted so long as Reece James ended up getting surgery over a …
Xabi Alonso happy with ‘very complete’ Chelsea performance against Bournemouth
Post-match thoughts from the boss
Chelsea’s Sporting Director Succession Plan Revealed Following Lawrence Stewart's Departure
As Laurence Stewart exits Stamford Bridge, a new leadership structure emerges to steer transfer strategy and player pathways under the guidance of manager Xabi Alonso and Behdad Eghbali in a cohesive plan.
Reece James ‘Primary Position’ Under Xabi Alonso Revealed
Xabi Alonso’s tactical shift moves the Chelsea captain away from the flank, reinventing the injury-prone star to preserve his fitness.
Morgan Rogers Names His Top Three Players Of All Time
Chelsea’s record signing reveals the legendary trio that inspired his game while grounding hype around Stamford Bridge’s newest frontline as Xabi Alonso’s side battles defensive inconsistencies.
'No sympathy for Carrick & Alonso
Former Manchester City defender Nedum Onuoha, does not feel any sympathy for Manchester United's Michael Carrick and Xabi Alonso of Chelsea. Both sides have suffered some poor results early in the new season and there is pressure building over Carrick in particular to get results. "With Ruben Amorim, I remember people saying they didn't want him to go because they just wanted a level of stability but by the end, Amorim was sabotaging himself - he was so, so poor," Onuoha told BBC Radio 5 Live's Monday Night Club.
'No sympathy for Carrick & Alonso
Former Manchester City defender Nedum Onuoha, does not feel any sympathy for Manchester United's Michael Carrick and Xabi Alonso of Chelsea. Both sides have suffered some poor results early in the new season and there is pressure building over Carrick in particular to get results. "With Ruben Amorim, I remember people saying they didn't want him to go because they just wanted a level of stability but by the end, Amorim was sabotaging himself - he was so, so poor," Onuoha told BBC Radio 5 Live's Monday Night Club.
'De Zerbi is in an impossible position'
Tottenham's Roberto de Zerbi as well as Xabi Alonso of Chelsea are in an "impossible position" this season, believes The Observer's Rory Smith. The managers took charge of their clubs in the spring and oversaw a lot of activity in the transfer window, with Chelsea and Spurs ending the summer as the second and third highest spenders respectively. Smith says the changes to their squads is why De Zerbi and Alonso need time to build coherence in their sides.
'Shadow of Elliott saga hangs over Garnacho future'
Alejandro Garnacho had no future with Xabi Alonso's new-look Chelsea - he did not train with the squad before leaving for Aston Villa in July. Chelsea have the chance to make their money back on their outlay to sign him from Manchester United, Villa get an international winger and the player has a chance to revitalise a flailing career. For instance, Harvey Elliott would have triggered a move worth £35m if he made just 10 Premier League appearances last season.
Summer spending put Alonso in 'impossible position'
Chelsea's Xabi Alonso as well as Roberto de Zerbi of Tottenham are in an "impossible position" this season, believes The Observer's Rory Smith. The managers took charge of their clubs in the spring and oversaw a lot of activity in the transfer window, with Chelsea and Spurs ending the summer as the second and third-highest spenders respectively. Smith says the changes to their squads is why Alonso and De Zerbi need time to build coherence in their sides.
Brentford v Chelsea: Key stats and talking points
Unbeaten Brentford host a Chelsea side struggling for consistency under manager Xabi Alonso. Brentford continued their unbeaten start to the season with a hard-fought Carabao Cup win at Reading on Tuesday. Next on their agenda will be a return to winning ways in the Premier League.
Chelsea XI vs Brentford – Predicted lineup and team news
Chelsea travel to the Gtech Community Stadium on Friday looking to bounce back from a 2-2 draw with Hull City, in the final Premier League fixture before the international break. Xabi Alonso’s side ...
Chelsea Trio Absent From Open Training Ahead Of Brentford Clash
New boss Xabi Alonso potentially faces a team selection dilemma as key players miss open training.
Chelsea and Liverpool held at home, Villa lose again
Chelsea's chaotic start to life under Xabi Alonso continued with an entertaining 2-2 Premier League draw against Hull at Stamford Bridge on Saturday. It was a pattern that has become familiar in the early weeks of the season.
Joao Pedro is as good as Erling Haaland and reminds me of Karim Benzema, says Xabi Alonso
Joao Pedro has notched two goals and two assists in the first three games of the Premier League season
Chelsea vs Hull City – Predicted lineup and team news
Chelsea host Hull City at Stamford Bridge on Saturday looking to respond to their first Premier League defeat under Xabi Alonso, a 2-1 loss at Arsenal last weekend. The Blues needed a dramatic second-...
Joao Pedro reminds me of Karim Benzema and is on same level as Erling Haaland, says Chelsea boss Xabi Alonso
Joao Pedro was named Premier League player of the month for August after a superb start to the season for Chelsea; Xabi Alonso compared him to Karim Benzema and Erling Haaland ahead of Saturdays meeting with Hull at Stamford Bridge
Concerns and refinement but Chelsea are much-improved
Xabi Alonso left his last news conference in a subdued mood and wanting to conduct a "deeper analysis". It came after Alonso made four changes at half-time, introducing Cole Palmer, who scored twice, and Morgan Rogers, who provided four assists.
Alonso 'takes responsibility' as Chelsea subs rescue cup hopes
Chelsea get the better of Leeds in a cup thriller, but Blues boss Xabi Alonso has food for thought after needing rescue act from his star substitutes.
Chelsea vs Leeds United – Match preview and team news
Chelsea host Leeds United in the Carabao Cup third round on Wednesday, six months after the sides met at Wembley in last season’s FA Cup semi-final.Xabi Alonso’s side go into the game looking to b...
Alonso on injuries, Estevao reports and being 'self-demanding'
Chelsea boss Xabi Alonso has been speaking to the media before Wednesday's Carabao Cup third-round tie against Leeds United at Stamford Bridge (kick-off 20:00 BST). Caicedo could be back for Saturday's Premier League game against Hull City, though. Levi Colwill will be available for selection, but Jordan Henderson and Emmanuel Emegha will not feature.
Supercomputer predicts Chelsea vs Leeds United in Carabao Cup
Xabi Alonso looking straight with concerned Daniel Farke ahead of Stamford Bridge background
Alonso thought 'outside the box' against Arsenal
BBC Radio 5 Live's Monday Night Club team have been discussing Chelsea boss Xabi Alonso's "brave" and "fascinating" approach to defending Arsenal's corners. The Spaniard suffered his first defeat as Blues manager on Sunday, as Mikel Arteta's side came from behind to earn a 2-1 win at Emirates Stadium. On Sunday, Chelsea employed a tactic of leaving four players upfield for defensive corners, going man for man in the penalty area.
Blues must learn from Arsenal loss
Chelsea centre-back Maxence Lacroix says the Blues "deserved more" from their 2-1 defeat against Arsenal. The 26-year-old has featured in all four games for Xabi Alonso since his £52m move from Crystal Palace and although Chelsea have only lost one game, they have conceded seven goals in three league fixtures.
Chelsea Handed Harsh Truth After Loss to Arsenal
Chelsea has been handed a harsh truth after losing the derby against Arsenal on Sunday, Sept. 6. The Blues visited the Gunners on Matchday 3 of the 2026-27 Premier League season, and Mikel Arteta’s team came away with the victory despite Xabi Alonso’s side being the first to open the scoring.In the second minute, Morgan […] The post Chelsea Handed Harsh Truth After Loss to Arsenal appeared first on HEAVY.
Mikel Arteta hails Arsenal’s display in win against Chelsea
Mikel Arteta hailed a “beautiful” win after Arsenal came from behind to beat Chelsea 2-1 at the Emirates Stadium. The Premier League champions required a response after conceding for the first time this season, Morgan Rogers stunning home fans into silence with a volleyed goal after 77 seconds before the hosts hit back against a Chelsea side still finding its feet under Xabi Alonso.
Arsenal 2-1 Chelsea: Gary Neville questions Chelsea's 'all over the place' back three after defeat - but is confident they can finish top three
Chelsea suffered their first defeat under new manager Xabi Alonso, losing 2-1 to Arsenal; Gary Neville was critical of Chelseas back three - but believes the Blues can finish second or third; Neville: Im as positive as I have been for three four five years about Chelsea.
Alonso urges Chelsea to learn from painful defeat at Arsenal
Xabi Alonso urged Chelsea to use their 2-1 defeat at Arsenal on Sunday as a valuable lesson in the race to catch the Premier League champions."It hurts because a defeat has to hurt.
Analysis: Chelsea have goals and holes
Chelsea finished in 10th place, a whopping 33 points behind Arsenal last season. While Xabi Alonso's side still have plenty of catching up to do, there was evidence in this game they will compete towards the top end of the table this time. Alonso, however, needs to get on top of his side's defensive frailties.
Arsenal vs Chelsea: Confirmed Starting XIs For Premier League Clash
The team news is in from north London as Xabi Alonso names his Chelsea XI to face Arsenal in the Premier League.
Predicted XI: Xabi Alonso’s favourite team is clear
Chelsea are preparing to take on Arsenal at the Emirates, and we’re really curious to see who Xabi Alonso picks to start the game.If you enjoy Talk Chelsea coverage and want to see more of it, add u...
Chelsea roster for 2026-27 Premier League season
After a disappointing 10th-place Premier League finish in 2025-26, Chelsea will aim for improvement this season under new coach Xabi Alonso.
Chelsea XI vs Arsenal – Predicted lineup and team news
Chelsea sit fourth in the Premier League table heading into Sunday’s trip to the Emirates Stadium, with a win over Arsenal the chance to move above their hosts. Xabi Alonso’s side have scored 12 g...
Guarded on team news; satisfied with his squad
Chelsea manager Xabi Alonso appears to be genuine when discussing his satisfaction with the club's summer business.
Alonso urges Chelsea to 'move forward' after Fernandez's exit
Chelsea manager Xabi Alonso hopes everyone at Stamford Bridge can now "move forward" following the protracted sale of Enzo Fernandez to Manchester City."What he has done for the club, it has been great, and we are thankful, but now it is time to move forward.
Alonso to discuss midfield balance
Chelsea manager Xabi Alonso will speak for the first time since his side's failed attempt to sign a midfielder before the transfer deadline.
Alonso warns Chelsea after thriller: “We sat too deep” after blazing start vs Brighton
Xabi Alonso has said Chelsea were punished for sitting too deep after almost blowing a three-goal lead against Brighton.Chelsea claimed their second straight win of the newPremier League season after ...
Chelsea vs Brighton live updates: Alonso's Blues highlight three 9am ET kick offs
Can Xabi Alonso make it two Premier League wins from two? Chelsea are at home as three PL games take center stage at 9am.
Pep Chavarria to Chelsea transfer: Rayo Vallecano left-back is a late bloomer but could his mentality help Xabi Alonso?
Chelsea’s signing Pep Chavarria will have taken many by surprise so what is it about the 28-year-old Rayo Vallecano left-back that Xabi Alonso likes? Adam Bate speaks to Chavarria’s former coach at Zaragoza to find out why Chelsea think he is up to the task...
Xabi Alonso's Chelsea rebuild: How Bayer Leverkusen glory explains the plan to recruit role models at Stamford Bridge
Following the news that Chelsea are looking to sign Danny Welbeck and Jordan Henderson this summer, Adam Bate reflects on whether there are lessons from Xabi Alonsos spectacular success at Bayer Leverkusen that offer clues to explain his thinking...
Alonso has 'plan' for playing Rogers with Palmer
Chelsea manager Xabi Alonso says he has a "plan" to play club record £117m signing Morgan Rogers alongside Cole Palmer.
'Good energy' at Chelsea as Alonso kickstarts reign in Sydney
New manager Xabi Alonso said Monday there was "good energy" at Chelsea as he bids to turn around the club's fortunes, but was reluctant to say what a successful first season would look like."But I think that we are starting the new season with good energy, that's going to be important."
'This was the easy part for Alonso'
The Drake Suite at Stamford Bridge is adorned with pictures of Chelsea managers holding trophies. Many of these pictures are of Jose Mourinho, but fellow Premier League winner Antonio Conte also features. Xabi Alonso motioned to these as he answered a question on his illustrious predecessors during his unveiling news conference on Monday, saying he is "really honoured and privileged" to follow in their footsteps.
Enzo Fernandez: Xabi Alonso determined to keep wantaway Argentina World Cup star at Chelsea
Jose Mourinho eyes Chelsea mainstay as his ‘priority’ signing
Former Real Madrid manager Xabi Alonso has taken over the reins as Chelsea’s new coach and is already planning the squad and his dynamics for the upcoming season.The revolutionary thinker that he is...
Gossip: Jackson hopes to remain at Chelsea
Striker Nicolas Jackson will not push for a move away from Chelsea as he aims to impress new manager Xabi Alonso in pre-season. (Football Insider)
Marc Cucurella transfer news: Real Madrid reach agreement to sign Chelsea full-back
Real Madrid have struck a deal with Chelsea for Marc Cucurella; the move is a blow to incoming Blues boss Xabi Alonso, who is already short of experienced players; Cucurella was a priority signing for new Real manager Jose Mourinho; they fought off competition from Barcelona and Man City
'A very underwhelming campaign'
Now the curtain has come down on the 2025-26 Premier League campaign, here is my end-of-season review - with a look back to what I predicted in August. Chelsea's poor season contained one final insult when they were beaten at Sunderland on the final day, meaning they have no European football under new manager Xabi Alonso next season. Liam Rosenior lasted only three months amid acrimony - a head coach out of his depth - before Calum McFarlane stepped in to take Chelsea to the FA Cup final, which they lost to Manchester City.
'A wave of enthusiasm' for 'another fresh start'
Part of the recipe for football's incredible popularity is the way that a summer break of buying and selling players and changing things around behind the scenes can convince any fanbase that things are set to improve in the season to come, no matter how badly the previous one ended. Chelsea are a perfect example right now. A big injection of hope can make all those intractable issues feel manageable again, and that is what the news about Xabi Alonso being appointed as the club's new manager has done.
McFarlane on Alonso appointment, player fitness and Spurs
Chelsea interim boss Calum McFarlane has been speaking to the media before Tuesday's Premier League game against Tottenham at Stamford Bridge (kick-off 20:15 BST). Chelsea announced former Real Madrid boss Xabi Alonso as their new manager on Sunday.
Xabi Alonso to Chelsea: Former Real Madrid and Bayer Leverkusen coach confirmed as manager at Stamford Bridge
Chelsea appoint Xabi Alonso as manager on four-year contract
Chelsea appoint former Liverpool midfielder Xabi Alonso as their manager on a four‑year contract.
🚨 BREAKING: Chelsea confirm appointment of Xabi Alonso
Chelsea have confirmed the appointment of Xabi Alonso as their new head coach, having parted ways with Liam Rosenior at the end of April.The announcement comes less than 24 hours after the London club...
🚨 Official: Xabi Alonso joins Chelsea
Thunderbolt in the Premier League!Chelsea officially announced this Sunday morning that Xabi Alonso will take over as head coach starting next season!The former Anfield darling thus becomes the new ma...
Xabi Alonso to Chelsea: Former Real Madrid and Bayer Leverkusen coach agrees four-year contract to be head coach at Stamford Bridge
Xabi Alonso has been out of work since being sacked by Real Madrid earlier this year; Chelsea were looking for a permanent replacement for Liam Rosenior, who was let go after just four months in charge; Alonso had been linked with the Liverpool role but Arne Slot looks set to stay
Chelsea in advanced talks to make Alonso new manager
Chelsea accelerate their efforts to appoint Xabi Alonso as the club's next permanent head coach.
Chelsea’s stance on hiring Xabi Alonso as next manager revealed
Chelsea appear to be moving quickly in their search for a new manager, with Xabi Alonso now firmly in the conversation. The club does not want the process to drag deep into the summer, especially with the World Cup about to dominate the football calendar.
Real Madrid contacted former legendary manager to replace Xabi Alonso
Alvaro Arbeloa was the selected candidate to replace Xabi Alonso as the head coach of Real Madrid after the Spanish Super Cup in January.However, the former youth team manager has not enjoyed the best...
Liverpool enter transfer race to sign 21-year-old colossus
Arne Slot has already admitted that change is on its way to Anfield next season. And, while most fans want the Dutchman to be sacked and replaced by Xabi Alonso, it doesn't feel like Fenway Sports Gro...
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Lenovo shows off snap-together laptop with removable keyboard, screen, and ports
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Man City keep tabs on Alexander-Arnold
Manchester City are keeping tabs on Trent Alexander-Arnold, Liverpool get positive response after approaching Xabi Alonso, Chelsea recall Aaron Anselmino from Borussia Dortmund loan, plus more.
Jurgen Klopp to Real Madrid: Former Liverpool manager a candidate for head coach role at LaLiga club
Jurgen Klopp is currently the head of global soccer for Red Bull, but Sky Germany understands the former Liverpool boss would give a move to Real Madrid serious consideration; Xabi Alonso left his position as head coach at Real on Monday with Alvaro Arbeloa his replacement
Xabi Alonso fired by Real Madrid: Alvaro Arbeloa takes over
The Spanish giants have announced the managerial change on Monday, in a shock move
Florentino Pérez: “We continue to work towards new triumphs”
Real Madrid president Florentino Pérez sent his best wishes in the club’s usual Christmas round-up. Pérez was joined by Xabi Alonso, Dani Carvajal, Fede Valverde, Sergio Scariolo, Sergio Llull, Edy Tavares, Pau Quesada, Misa and Teresa. “From Real Madrid, we want to accompany you during these special holidays, and we send you our best wishes for […]
🚨Breaking news: Mbappé brings big news to Xabi Alonso
The Frenchman has participated in part of the training with the group ahead of the match against Alavés. Undoubtedly, it is one of the great news of the day for Real Madrid and Xabi Alonso. Kylian Mb...
Real Madrid: An offer on the table for Jürgen Klopp
ريال مدريد: اتفاق مطروح على الطاولة مع يورغن كلوبTonight, Xabi Alonso is playing for his future at Real Madrid as they face Pep Guardiola's Manchester City. Jü...