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Increases in flu typically begin around Thanksgiving.
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Reverse due diligence isn't a typical business practice. But it should be.
How well have past GOTY winners sold?
We’re less than two months away from 2026’s The Game Awards, and what a year it’s been for fantastic games, including Resident Evil Requiem, Forza Horizon 6, Slay the Spire II, the Blood of Dawnwalker, and Control Resonant – just to name a few. So as we approach the end of the year, we thought we’d look back on our estimates for the GOTY winners of the past four years. In terms of revenue, Elden Ring (2022 winner), Baldur’s Gate 3 (2023), Astro Bot (2024), and Expedition 33 (2025) have generated a combined $3.8B via 73M copies sold: Let’s have a look, then. Elden Ring has generated $2B in revenue Elden Ring is a phenomenon in every sense. It’s sold a whopping 36.4M copies across Steam (50%), PS5 (35%), and Xbox (15% across console and PC). Want more free estimates and insights in your inbox twice a week? Subscribe below! Subscribe Elden Ring also just passed an astronomical milestone: $2B in revenue. While PlayStation and Xbox account for half of Elden Ring’s copies sold across these three platforms, they account for 57.5% of revenue. This – as ever – is due to regional pricing and the higher relative share of PC gamers in lower-priced markets. For example, around 17.4% of Elden Ring’s Steam copies sold were in China, where the game costs about 26% less than the price in the States. There’s an … interesting narrative going around these days that console gamers are only interested in ball-and-gun games and have the patience for little else. Well, Elden Ring’s impressive sales prove that is simply not true, and across all platforms. What’s more, over 9.8M people have played Elden Ring for over 100 hours, with nearly 3.5M people getting all of the achievements and trophies. For reference, 10.9% of Elden Ring’s PlayStation players have the platinum trophy, while 10.5% of players on Steam and 3.9% of Xbox players unlocked all the achievements. Git gud, Xbox players! Of the 1.5M people who played Elden Ring on PlayStation last month, 4% also played Dark Souls 3 last month, 4% played Bloodborne, and 3% played Sekiro. There’s those Soulsborne diehards for you. By many accounts, including my own, Elden Ring is one of the best games of all time. It’s an evergreen seller that will continue to be a cash cow for Bandai and FromSoftware for years to come. Want more free estimates and insights in your inbox twice a week? Subscribe below! Subscribe Elden Ring has sold another 2M copies across Steam, PlayStation, and Xbox this year, generating almost $110M. This means it’s outperforming many of this year’s high-profile releases. Even Elden Ring’s standalone run-based PvE spinoff, 2025’s Nightreign, has sold 7.8M copies and generated $282M in revenue. Baldur’s Gate 3 is another billion-dollar-plus banger Another cross-platform phenomenon is Baldur’s Gate 3, which has sold 23.2M copies and generated over $1.2B in revenue. About 18.7M of these copies (80.6%) are via Steam, 2.9M via PS5 (12.7%), and 1.6M (6.8%) via Xbox. Around 1.3M folks on Steam bought BG3 before it hit 1.0. The PlayStation version launched about a month after the PC 1.0 release, while the Xbox version came four months later due to technical issues around developing local co-op on the Series S. Want more free estimates and insights in your inbox twice a week? Subscribe below! Subscribe Across platforms, Baldur’s Gate 3’s monthly active users have never dropped below 2M, including 2.2M MAUs last month (68.5% on Steam, 21.9% on PS5, and 9.6% on Xbox). And it still regularly brings in 280K to 400K players every day: About 1% of BG3’s Steam player base has played for over 500 hours! That’s a little under 200K people. Astro Bot is also an evergreen seller, albeit a more niche, family one Astro Bot, 2024’s winner, has now sold 4.7M copies and generated $291M in revenue. The budget, including marketing, is almost certainly under $100M, given the small Japan-based core team and three-year dev timeline. You can really see why the tides are changing toward less expensive hubs. Astro Bot is the only first-party winner on this list, but follows other first-party winners of The Last of Us Part II (2020’s winner), God of War (2018), and Breath of the Wild (2017). Around 46.6% of Astro Bot’s copies sold have been physical, which is far higher than the typical game. This makes sense for a couple of reasons: There’s a large family audience for this one, and physical boxes are an item to wrap when giving Astro as a gift. Astro has collector value for the PlayStation core (this is nostalgia-fueled platformer celebrating PlayStation’s history) Want more free estimates and insights in your inbox twice a week? Subscribe below! Subscribe Astro is another one of those games that continues selling over time, regularly selling more than 100K a month. It’s sold around 1M more copies this year ($60M in revenue) and is a popular title with families. We can see this using the Alinea platform’s MAU crossover tool: Astro Bot’s top #2, #3, and #4 games by crossover in any given month this year are Minecraft, Fortnite, and Roblox – without fail. The #1 title every month, though, is Astro’s Playroom, a pack-in with all PS5 consoles. For every month this year, between 20% and 30% of Astro Bot players also played Astro’s Playroom that month. So the free pack-in is a noice funnel for converting players to a full paid product. Expedition 33 sells 8.7M despite Game Pass cannibalisation Finally, we have last year’s winner – Expedition 33. The turn-based-RPG banger has generated $366M via 8.7M copies sold, with 58.8% on Steam, 35.7% on PS5, and 5.5% on Xbox. Xbox’s share of copies sold is this low due to Expedition 33 launching on Game Pass, where 4.3M people across console and PC accessed the game. A little under 700K Xbox players used their subscription to play Expedition 33 this year. That said, the game’s 1.5-year Game Pass deal ended last week on October 16, and we’re already beginning to see a positive trend on Expedition 33’s copies sold via Xbox (but the jury’s still out!). There’s understandably a lot of French pride behind this one, as France is the game’s #3 market on both Steam and PlayStation. Vive la France! One thing that stood out to me is that the GOTY winners aren’t $300M Hollywood productions made in the US. They’re mostly mid-budget studios outside the traditional AAA cost centres. Lots to think about there. Also, good games sell well; who’d have thunk it!? And there’s a whole load of them this year, with GTA 6 still to come, too. GTA just made the cutoff point for the VGAs this year. What a coincidence! Loading... Cool links and other stuff Our physical games newsletter from Tuesday was picked up by GameSpot, Eurogamer, TweakTown, and a bunch of others. We’re offering a free trial of our platform for games companies. Send us a message here, or reply right here on Substack/email, and we’ll set you up. Next week, we’ve got some exciting news regarding the future of our newsletter, so stay tuned! The last word Reply to this email – or reach out here – if you have any feedback for the newsletter – or want to request a game for us to cover. Want to see why these companies (and many others) are subscribed to Alinea? Get a free platform trial! [Alinea Analytics boasts the most accurate PC and console estimates in the business. Game makers use our platform to understand their audience, keep an eye on the competition, monitor sales trends, and spot new opportunities. We equip game studios and financial institutions with accurate data and the confidence to make smarter, data-driven decisions. Want to talk about all things games market data? We’d love to chat!]
Introspection required if EU Inc fails, says start-up lobbyist
European start-ups have a new voice in Brussels. Startups for Europe, created from the merger of lobby groups Allied for Startups and the European Startup Network, is hoping to harness the momentum behind EU-Inc, a campaign that united start-ups and investors behind demands for a new pan-European company regime.At a launch event for the new association in Brussels on October 1, the mood was remarkably upbeat compared to a typical Eurobubble gathering, more Silicon Valley than Schuman roundabout.When asked whether this reflects a feeling that Europe is on the right track, chief executive Serena Borbotti-Frison said it’s a “scary” moment as the continent looks to boost its competitiveness amid a new technological arms race.“What is at stake is quite intense, and the way we can answer is by delivering, but also with hope,” she told Science|Business. “It’s what our industry does. It’s not about identifying a pain point and then saying it’s too hard.”For many in the start-up community, that sense of hope is dwindling. In March, the European Commission presented its proposal for EU Inc, naming its initiative after the grassroots campaign.EU Inc was meant to be a gamechanger: the ability to incorporate within 48 hours for less than €100 and scale up across Europe; a harmonised stock option regime enabling start-ups to compete for talent; and simplified insolvency procedures for innovative start-ups to reduce the cost of failure.However, haggling by EU governments has raised concerns that EU Inc will be stripped of the very features, including stock option harmonisation, that are meant to make it attractive for companies.“I fear we are proving to ourselves that the model doesn’t work,” Borbotti-Frison said of the policymaking process. “Everyone agrees we should have EU Inc. Everyone agrees it’s hard to scale and we need to scale to answer the competitiveness [challenge], and still we cannot deliver? [. . .] What does that say about ourselves?”The Commission has made EU Inc a cornerstone of its single market reform, and has agreed with the European Parliament and the Council of the EU to target an agreement by the end of 2026. However, several points are currently holding up an agreement, including national rules around employee participation in management decisions, and the provision that employee stock options always be taxed at the point of sale. Some EU governments have reportedly pushed back on the Commission’s choice of legal basis, contending that anything related to taxation requires unanimity in the Council.Trade unions have also protested against EU Inc, fearing it will be exploited by companies looking to undermine workers’ rights.“If this doesn’t work, it’s introspection time, on the way our institutions work, maybe the way our lobbies work, and maybe the way the cooperation between them works,” Borbotti-Frison said.“Is it in the national interest? Is it a gap between political will and technical ability to operate? Is it speed? I don't know, but something needs to be fixed.”Ahead of last week’s European Council meeting, EU-Inc campaigners tried a new strategy: appealing directly to EU presidents and prime ministers. In an open letter, they urged EU leaders to “step in and give your negotiating teams a clear mandate to change course and reverse their objections to the Commission’s original proposal.”Lessons from EU-IncLike its predecessors, Startups for Europe will represent national start-up associations, but it is also targeting investors. The founding sponsors are venture capital firm Atomico and EQT, the investor selected earlier this year to manage the €5 billion Scaleup Europe Fund.It also wants to harness the knowledge and cross-border experience of European success stories. “Take the list of the 100 biggest unicorns in Europe. We are speaking to all of them,” Borbotti-Frison said. The association plans to publish a full list of supporters following the Slush tech conference in Helsinki in November.Andreas Klinger and Simon Schaefer, two key figures in the EU-Inc campaign, are both on the board of the new association, and Startups for Europe wants to take the lessons from their campaign.What was unprecedented about EU-Inc was “how rooted it was, and how strong it was in bringing everyone on board behind one clear pain point and solution to fix it,” Borbotti-Frison said. “This is an inspiration for us, and then we need to turn it into something more systematic, more bridged in Brussels, more connected to the policymaking game, and to scale it.”If it’s possible to unite such a broad coalition, it’s because the European start-up ecosystem is now mature, she said. “Maybe it was not ten years ago. Maybe it was not five years ago. But now, it’s mature to speak with one voice.”Open and liberal EuropeThe association plans to campaign on files related to three “pain points,” Borbotti-Frison said: “start and scale in Europe, fundraise and invest in Europe, and making Europe the most innovative continent.”As well as EU Inc, she cited public procurement, the EU’s simplification push, the Savings and Investments Union, and files related to AI adoption and technological sovereignty as priorities for the coming months.What these files have in common is that they relate not to subsidies but to the framework conditions influencing the availability of mostly private, or in the case of procurement, public, funding.Related articlesEmployee participation disagreement delays MEPs’ vote on EU IncCommission urges EU governments not to water down EU IncEU’s ‘ultra-fast’ €5B scale-up fund is set up to win, says its fund managerThe budget dispute over the next Horizon Europe programme will also impact start-ups, which are supported notably through the European Innovation Council. But EU innovation funding is a drop in the ocean compared to venture capital and public procurement budgets.“If competitiveness and innovation are a priority, then the [EU budget] should reflect it,” Borbotti-Frison said. However, she added that the main question is not how much public money is invested, but “how do we create the right conditions for the market to solve the problem?”The Scaleup Europe Fund mixes both approaches, using €1 billion in EU funding to crowd in private investors and address Europe’s lack of large-scale, late-stage growth funds. “It’s a proof of concept. Ideally, then the market will do it itself,” Borbotti-Frison said.Startups for Europe is also focused on bringing an alternative political narrative. Amid competing visions for open, global markets on the one side and a protectionist Europe on the other, it wants to offer “a third voice, to say we can be proudly European and build a strong continent in a liberal economy, open to the world, and global.”It can be tempting, when thinking about how Europe can better support innovation, to look across the Atlantic. But while it’s important to compare statistics to see where Europe needs to catch up, that’s where the comparison should stop, Borbotti-Frison said. “On everything else, we need to do it our own way. We don't have the same history. We don't have the same political model. We don't have the same way of life.”Many of the key files that could benefit the start-up community, including EU Inc and the Savings and Investments Union, rely on closer integration within Europe, making it easier to operate across borders.While the Commission has made deepening the single market a political priority, support at national level is more precarious. The coming months will see pivotal elections in Spain and France, while the German government has also been coming under pressure domestically. In each country, far-right parties have been gaining ground.When asked if she was concerned the political situation could jeopardise this progress, Borbotti-Frison responded: “Of course. I would be lying if I said I wasn’t.” However, she continues to believe that cooperation is the only way forward. “Doing it alone is not the solution. It’s also not who we are, it’s not the model we are building, and it’s not the scale we need.”
Tracking tsunamis triggered by extreme weather
As much of Western Europe faced record-breaking temperatures and extended drought this summer, Croatia experienced another weather event that could also set a worrisome precedent.Over the course of two weeks, a series of meteorological tsunamis (meteotsunamis) struck Croatia’s Adriatic coast, alarming both residents and tourists. Social media posts showed flooded seaside promenades and people walking through knee-deep water. Fortunately, no deaths or major damage were reported.In a world where natural disasters seem to be increasing, meteotsunamis — tsunamis caused by rapid weather changes – rarely make headline news. But warming sea temperatures and changing atmospheric conditions may help explain why these phenomena could become more common, especially in shallower seas and inland lakes with wide coastal shelves.“We have definitely become more aware of them, and there have been a lot more reports of these events in the last 10 years,” says Jadranka Šepić, an associate professor of environmental physics at the University of Split whose research focuses on efforts to track meteotsunamis in real time. She is also one of Croatia’s ambassadors for Science Comes to Town (SCTT), a European Commission-funded programme aimed at making research more accessible to the public.Šepić sees two possible reasons for the apparent increase in meteotsunamis. One is that photos and videos shared on social media are providing more empirical evidence, while rising air and sea temperatures could also play a role. The geophysicist “cannot say with certainty” that warming is a contributing factor because research is still ongoing. “But I can say that previously in Croatia we might have had one exceptionally strong event every 10 or 15 years, and one strong event every five years, and within 15 days this summer we had five strong events,” Šepić notes. “This is not typical.”‘A fist against the sea surface’Unlike tsunamis that are triggered by underwater earthquakes or volcanoes, meteotsunamis are caused by sudden changes in atmospheric pressure combined with other rapidly developing weather events, such as thunderstorms. The effect “is like pushing a fist against the sea surface,” Šepić explains. The resulting oscillation intensifies as it reaches shallower water, and “can be far more destructive than a wind-driven wave because meteotsunamis are accompanied by very strong currents than can penetrate much deeper inland.” The meteotsunami, she continues, “then behaves the same as a tsunami — they slow down and grow as the sea shallows, and then grow further in places like harbours due to further shallowing and narrowing. When they come ashore, they can be very destructive — taking everything with them out to sea and then taking it back.”Croatian research institutions have tracked such sea oscillations since the 1930s because the relatively shallow Adriatic Sea is prone to meteotsunamis. The strongest recorded so far was in June 1978, according to the Adriatic Meteotsunami Catalogue, which is supported by the European Research Council (ERC), Croatian Science Foundation and the country’s leading research institutions. During that event, six-metre-high waves flooded the coastal town of Vela Luka on Korčula Island, causing major damage.Other meteotsunami “hotspots” in Europe include the Mediterranean Sea as well the Atlantic coastal shelves off France, Portugal and Spain. In June 2006, a meteotsunami with five-metre-high waves swept through the harbour of Ciutadella in Spain’s Balearic Islands, causing widespread damage to boats. Several less powerful events were reported in the Balearics and off the coast of Spain this summer, leading to some beach closures.Forecasting is challenging because of how quickly meteotsunamis can develop and their uncertain trajectory. Šepić is involved in two ERC-funded research projects — SHExtreme and MeD-Track — aimed in part at strengthening monitoring and real-time data collection. Access to accurate and immediate information is essential for early-warning systems.Early exposure to meteotsunamisŠepić first learned about meteotsunamis from her parents while growing up in Croatia. She later had the opportunity to investigate these events during her master and doctoral studies in geophysics at the University of Zagreb. The geophysicist has also conducted research at the Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries in Split, the University of the Balearic Islands in Palma de Mallorca and the Institute of Ocean Science in the Canadian province of British Columbia.Projects like SCTT are important to raise awareness about research and inspiring young people to pursue studies and careers in science, notes Šepić. She credits her colleagues at the University of Split and the Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries for their community outreach and engagement in the European project, which includes partner universities and institutions in Brest (France) and Kiel (Germany). As an example of town-gown collaboration, Šepić highlights her own university’s ‘Oceanographers on the Island’ programme. This initiative offers workshops and hands-on learning for children living on numerous Croatian islands.“It is a great privilege for Split to be involved in a project like Science Comes to Town, which is the first of its kind in the European Union," Šepić says. As for encouraging new generations of scientists, “This is a great effort, and I hope that we will see an effect in a few years.”Science|Business, which connects policymakers, academics and industry through its news reporting, analysis and events, is an SCTT partner.
These Democrats could win competitive races. None are politicians
James Talarico and Abdul El-Sayed are far from the only atypical Democratic candidates running for Congress in the midterm elections.
Flu activity is rising earlier than usual in El Paso County, health officials say
Respiratory illness season is underway in El Paso County, and local health officials say flu activity is already increasing earlier than typically expected.
Bo French, Jon Rosenthal battle over culture, job duties in bid to regulate the oil and gas industry
Controversial remarks by the GOP candidate Bo French cast a national spotlight on the typically quiet race for a spot on the Texas Railroad Commission.
Streaming’s Biggest Show Returns…and a Buzzy Genre Struggles
(Welcome to my weekly streaming ratings report, the single best guide to what’s popular in streaming TV and what isn’t. I’m the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a former streaming executive who now analyzes business strategy in the entertainment industry. If you were forwarded this email, please subscribe to get these insights each week.) Obviously, the big news of the week (if not month) is Netflix letting go of executive Bela Bajaria, their chief content officer. I’m going to cover this in my next “Most Important Story of the Week”, but I also have a data angle that I might publish before then. (Too much news this month, am I right?) But first, I have a bonus Streaming Ratings Report issue for you. Today’s article is a bit of a grab bag of topics I’ve wanted to write about, but couldn’t squeeze into the (already very long) Streaming Ratings Report issues. The NFL drives huge viewership numbers, so I’ve got a look at that. A whole bunch of TV shows returned to the traditional broadcast channels, and I have thoughts. And I have a quick look at adult animated shows, since a couple flopped earlier this month. Plus, the Emmys aired earlier this month, and we got some fun data bout how popular those nominated shows are and why I’m not optimistic about the show’s future. That’s a lot, so let’s dive right in. Subscribe Sports - Football Remains the King of Streaming Over the last two Streaming Ratings Reports, I sorta ignored the biggest “show” each week. (I was tempted to say “piece of content” but I know that word bugs folks.) In my database, I call these “specials”, and they sure are special. I speak of the king of American TV: football!!! Streaming football is back and, unlike some other sports, it routinely dominates all viewership. Probably the best way to show this is to update one of my favorite graphics, the “40 Million Hour Club”1 since football games have joined that club each week they’ve premiered: (Yep, that’s the data through 28-Sep, the first four weeks of the season. As a reminder, I take the average minute audience provided by Nielsen, factor out a percentage of linear TV viewers in home markets, and multiply the run time by the three-hour runtime.) Again, the numbers are huge. Let’s start with Netflix. They grabbed the rights to the bonus opening week NFL Kickoff game (which was on YouTube last year) and it put up 18.5 million viewers on average. That nets out to 47.4 million hours of estimated streaming hours. That’s good! Though, notably, it’s well below Christmas Day games from previous years. Compared to other streamers/broadcasters, that’s a bit of a mixed result. On one hand, Netflix’s 18.5 million average is about what YouTube claimed last year, though Nielsen used a bespoke methodology at that time, so I trust this viewership figure more. So that’s good. (The game also shifted from a Friday to a Thursday and that could have helped the viewership as well.) And Netflix continues to best Prime Video in total viewership—as you’ll see next—though Netflix has had much higher-profile (opening week and Christmas Day) games. NBC/Peacock’s opening game the night before averaged 25.1 million average viewers, which is just much bigger than Netflix (or Prime Video). That’s the big caveat to all streaming viewership records: even in success, they can’t compete with traditional linear TV. Previously, I called this my “hierarchy of viewership”, and the data keeps supporting that thesis. The downside for NBC is that this game’s viewership was down compared to previous years, though it may be a counting issue. Here’s a great chart from Sports Media Watch: Indeed, looking at all the opening week games across all windows, Netflix still lags the other primetime windows, but does well compared to the afternoon games: I saw a few folks make the case that streamers still lag traditional broadcasters in reach, and I’d add they really lag compared to “broadcast plus streaming” options like NBC/Peacock, ESPN/Disney+ and CBS/Paramount+. The best data I saw for this came from Samba TV, who charted reach through the 2025 season, and, wow. (Samba TV’s numbers are historically lower than Nielsen’s, so don’t compare their household figures to Nielsen’s hours, but use them as a proxy for the relative reach of the streamers.) The good news is Prime Video is NOT having a down year. Their opening Thursday Night Football game reached 18.6 million viewers (about what Netflix got), but that’s a high for Prime Video on Thursdays and the biggest Thursday night game since 2015. The TNF games the weeks of 21-Sep and 28-Sep continued this streak, getting 43.1 (16.8 million average viewers) and 42.5 total hours (16.6 million average viewers), which were both up from last year. Still, that continues the (typical) season slide: (For those new-to-streaming-football-numbers folks, the viewership declines for Thursday Night Football as the year goes along.) Overall, it appears as if Prime Video is now part of the “football habit”, be it for customers at home or out at places like bars and restaurants. And its viewership is slowly catching up to broadcast. One last chart shows this. Last season, Nielsen started adding out-of-home viewership to the charts, so I try not to do season-to-season comparisons as I did for the first few years. And while Nielsen added Big Data viewing this year, I’m going to compare the last two seasons. Here’s that chart, which shows the season-over-season gains: When it comes to streaming football, we have to keep a few seemingly contradictory thoughts in our head… First, streaming doesn’t come close to matching broadcast’s reach and, thus, viewership. Second, even with that gap, football is still the biggest “thing” on streaming. It’s very, very popular. Third, while some methodology changes have likely helped Prime Video’s numbers, their viewership does appear to be growing. Lastly, yeah, the NFL started the season off poorly, with week one dragging down the numbers in year-over-year comparisons. However—and again, methodology changes may have helped this—the viewership grew compared to previous seasons over the next couple of weeks. So football is still king. On streaming and off. Television - Adult Animation Continues to NOT Make the Streaming Charts In the last two reports, two adult-animated shows whiffed: Netflix’s animated comedy, Dang! Paramount+’s Sega-video-game-inspired fantasy/comedy, Golden Axe. Neither made the charts, but that’s usually the case for animated shows. I mean, here’s literally every animated show that’s made the Nielsen Original charts since the start of 2025: And one of those shows is G_abby’s Dollhouse_! A kids show! The problem with charts like this is that they don’t give you a sense of how many shows miss the charts. Netflix had at least eleven animated flops, including comedies like Big Mouth (a show everyone assumed was popular in the pre-Streaming Ratings Era), Long Story Short, Haunted Hotel, Mating Season, Strip Law, and Alley Cats, and action shows like Blood of Zeus, Castlevania: Nocturne, Devil May Cry, Splinter Cell: Deathwatch, and Tomb Raider: The Legend of Lara Croft. Prime Video had at least six animated misses, two in the same universe (Hazbin Hotel, Helluva Boss), three more comedies (#1 Happy Family USA, The Second Best Hospital in the Galaxy and Kevin) and an action show (The Mighty Nein). Disney+ had MCU and Star Wars animated misses (Eyes of Wakanda, Marvel Zombies, Star Wars: Visions, Star Wars: Maul – Shadow Lord, and Star Wars: Tales of the Underworld) but I can’t tell how many of those shows were geared towards adults. HBO Max had Harley Quinn and Hulu had Solar Opposites. None of these shows made the charts! That’s a lot of misses! If I remade the chart with all those misses, here’s how it would look: Listen, I know the counter arguments. First, it’s cheaper to produce animated shows than live action. Fair enough, but with viewership this low, even that cheaper price point starts to not matter. Second, just look at the acquired charts. Hit animated comedies can generate viewership for years! Shows like The Simpsons, South Park, Family Guy, and Bob’s Burgers do really, really well. Fair enough, but streaming has failed to recreate the dynamic that Fox has mastered so well. That’s a problem for streaming still. Television - Emmys! The annual Emmys broadcast was a few weeks ago, and I’ve got data on how the nominees performed on streaming, plus hot takes on this year’s viewership (and the big news about the broadcast’s, er, streamcast’s future). We’re just getting started with this issue, but the rest is for paid subscribers of the Entertainment Strategy Guy, so if you’d like to find out… The top Emmy-nominated shows… ...why I’m worried about the future of the Emmys telecast... ...the pros of broadcast television ...and the cons... ...please subscribe! We can only keep doing this great work with your support. Coming Soon! Next week, we’ve got a double issue (since the weeks of 21-Sep and 28-Sep were so light), but then I’ll be all caught up after a deluge of streaming ratings data from Nielsen in September. In the meantime, I’m going to try to take a look at Netflix’s stats to explain why Bela Bajaria is out. But even light weeks give me plenty to talk about. The Great British Baking Show returns to Netflix and Apple TV has a buzzy new star-studded comedy. And Netflix has a controversial-but-appears-to-be-popular new game show. Plus big films like Toy Story 5, Backrooms and The Breadwinner head to streaming. And is East of Eden a hit? After that, The Kardashians return to Hulu, Prime Video has a reboot of Carrie, and Netflix has a horror show, Below. Disclosure Day heads to Peacock, The Housemaid heads to HBO Max_,_ a new Ben Affleck film, Animals, lands on Netflix, and Apple TV has a new John Cena action film based on, checks notes, Hasbro’s Matchbox toys. Okay. Longterm, some interesting TV production news. HBO Max ordered How to Survive Without Me, starring Kaley Cuoco, Joshua Jackson, Ray Romano and Rita Wilson, for fifteen episodes! I love that some streamers (or, at least, HBO Max) are finally ordering TV shows with more than eight episodes. In less wise production news, Landman does not appear to be coming back this year, since it just started production. Frankly, I don’t love this (get your shows out on time) but Landman is so popular, I doubt it matters.
Thirty Seconds in Texas Costs $12,000 as Politics Dominates TV
Buying a 30-second television ad in Harlingen, Texas, typically cost political candidates less than $500 two years ago. These days the spots are going for the price of a serviceable used car in the small city near the Mexican border.
Vinyl record junkies find a lot to love at Utica's Record Riots
Kirkland was one of hundreds of vinyl record enthusiasts to brave the chilly temperatures Saturday morning, Oct. 17, to attend the Record Riots traveling convention at the Deerfield Fire Station. Based in New Jersey, Record Riots is one of the largest network of vinyl shows in the country, with pop-ups stretching from Utica to Ohio to Virginia. The Utica Record Riot typically takes place three times a year.
Dave & Buster's Entertainment Sees Unusually High Options Volume (NASDAQ:PLAY)
Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. (NASDAQ:PLAY - Get Free Report) was the target of unusually large options trading on Friday. Investors purchased 5,009 call options on the stock. This represents an increase of approximately 37% compared to the typical daily volume of 3,653 call options.
Newly identified green star leaves astronomers amazed
A star's color typically is governed by its temperature
Science behind frost and when the metro typically sees its first frost
First Alert 6 Meteorologist Bo Fogal describes the science behind frost and the first chance of frost this weekend.
Prime Concepts Detroit adds burger-focused Stoli’s restaurant in West Bloomfield
The casual restaurant will serve burgers, comfort food and late-night bites in a departure from the group's typical offerings.
BUSINESS UPDATE: Port Perseveres Despite Tariffs’ Negative Impact
‘We are hanging tough ... in an environment that is incredibly difficult to do business in right now,” the port’s director says By Stefan Yablonski Tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have hurt the Port of Oswego by slashing Canadian aluminum cargo volumes and reducing revenue. “We’re doing good. We are hanging tough. It is a tough time for our line of business in general, you know with these tariffs and the amount of Canadian aluminum that we see through our docks,” said the new executive director, Tom Drumm. “Compared to 2025, we are doing exceedingly well in traffic coming in; not necessarily the volumes we were seeing, but yeah we are hanging tough in an environment that is incredibly difficult to do business in right now.” “I don’t know where people get these numbers to be honest. We have never publicly stated how much our revenue is down or up or left to right. We don’t have a strong sense of those revenue numbers until the shipping season really closes up. We won’t have an accurate picture of the revenue standpoint until after the shipping season, typically in late November,” he added. “What I can tell you is several of our Canadian vessels that carry the aluminum cells — the volume of aluminum on those vessels we have seen decreasing. That is attributed to a few factors. One is where Novelis is in in their restart process. Novelis is rocking and rolling right now. They are starting to pull a lot of aluminum from the port of Oswego, the aluminum that they roll down into coils. “Another factor plainly is the tariffs. Canadian aluminum is tariffed at 50%. So, on those vessels we are seeing lower numbers than we would like. We’d like to see vessels carrying roughly 10,000 metric tons of aluminum. Over the course of this year, we have seen more in the range of 4,000 to 6,000. “Every piece of that aluminum that we receive here by vessel at the port is from Canada and is subsequently hit with the 50% tariff. It directly affects us because we’ve received less volume than we would traditionally see pre-tariff times.” When the port receives less aluminum from those vessels it means less hours for the ILA (International Longshoremen Association) as far as folks that work on the dock, he said. When cargo declines, it affects everyone, fewer hours for longshoremen, fewer loads for truck drivers, fewer rail shipments and less business for local suppliers. “Outside of the aluminum that comes in by vessel, the port topped out at having roughly 4,600 aluminum ingots stored on site at the port. That project had never been done before. The port of Oswego had never had that many of those size ingots in our yard,” he said. “It has been a busy summer for the ILA. Would we like to see more work for them? Sure. They are working all those barges when they come in, but as opposed to working 15 hours they might be working seven or eight hours. It hasn’t been a distinct decline in ILA hours. There has been plenty of work to keep our guys busy throughout the summer.” More salt “We just brought salt back to the port in several, several years. Around Harborfest time at one point we had a salt barge here with about 24,000 metric tons of rock salt and we had an aluminum barge here the same week. We had close to 40 men working,” he said. “Yeah, the other products definitely keep us busy. The salt project was a massive project, one that we are proud of. I’ve got 24,000 metric tons of salt on site that has to go somewhere — that’s going to be another project.” It is important for the port to continue to look at different products, different commodities to try to diversify some of its revenue, he said, adding, “We have done a pretty good job of that in my first five months here … particularly with the rock salt we have on site right now. It is important to continue to try to stand out and work through some projects outside our usual business. I enjoy it. It is a challenge every single day we put our head down and we try our best.”
A Major Labor Boom in CNY? Not Here Yet
With so many major projects going on — Micron, I-81 viaduct and others — job growth is predicted to increase. But so far the number of jobs in the region has declined By Aaron Gifford [caption id=attachment_11065 align=alignright width=350] Amy Stage, deputy director at the Manufacturers Association of Central New York (MACNY): “For us, the conversation isn’t just about filling jobs. It’s about creating sustainable pathways that help people see a future for themselves in manufacturing.”[/caption] The I-81 viaduct project in Syracuse and Micron facility construction in Clay are expected to create a major labor boom for Central New York. But for the time being, the number of jobs here has actually decreased in the past year. The New York State Department of Labor reported that, for the annual comparison of June 2025 to this past June, private sector jobs decreased by 2,200 or less than 1% to 260,000. Job gains were concentrated in leisure and hospitality (+700), private education and health services (+400) and other services (+300). Job losses for that annual period were reported in the areas of trade, transportation and utilities (-1,500); professional and business services (-1,000); financial activities (-500); mining, logging and construction (-300); manufacturing (-200); and information (-100). The public sector job count rose over 12 months, with most growth concentrated in education, the state Department of Labor reported. Looking ahead, the Central New York economy is expected to benefit from both the Micron and I-81 viaduct projects over a period of several years. Initial job growth is foreseen in construction and computer and electronic manufacturing. Spin-off jobs will be created in the areas of professional and business services, health care and education, the state Department of Labor said in an email response to Oswego County Business magazine. “Population growth tied to the buildout of Micron Technology semiconductor complex in Clay is also expected to bring more workers and residents to the region, increasing demand for transportation services,” the agency said. New York Department of Labor highlighted current or projected job growth trends in various sectors. An increase in defense-related contracts at local high-tech employers has continued to support employment growth in the computer and electronic product manufacturing sector and Micron is expected to generate thousands of direct and indirect jobs as the project progresses. This sector paid an annual average wage of $117,500 in 2025 and employment in the sector is projected to grow by over 60% through 2032, making it the fastest-growing industry in the region. Typical occupations in this industry include electrical, electronic and electromechanical assemblers, software developers and industrial engineers, the state agency reported. Specialty trade contractors include several different types of tradespeople — electricians, plumbers, pipefitters and steamfitters and HVAC (heating, ventilation and air conditioning) mechanics and installers. Many of these positions are trained through apprenticeships, the state Department of Labor reported. The Interstate 81 construction project is generating local jobs, including construction laborers, projected to grow at a 6.4% rate, and operating engineers and other construction equipment operators, projected to grow at a 7.3% rate over the next several years. Construction of the Micron Technology facility is also “creating thousands of job opportunities that will continue over the next two decades,” the state agency reported. The specialty trade contractors sector paid an annual average wage of $86,200 in 2025. For Central New York, the challenge isn’t creating jobs, it’s filling them. Amy Stage, a deputy director at the Manufacturers Association of Central New York (MACNY), said meeting this unprecedented growth is a much larger task than just replacing retirees. “We’re seeing workforce gaps at every experience level,” she said. “Companies need entry-level employees, experienced technicians, supervisors, engineers and skilled trades professionals. The opportunity is tremendous, but we need more people entering these career pathways.” Employers are looking for people who can troubleshoot, read technical information, use computers and learn new processes, not just perform repetitive production work, Stage said. To address this demand, the MACNY created the Manufacturers Talent Institute, which aims to connect students and job seekers with meaningful career pathways while helping employers build their workforce. Twenty-one companies have so far signed up to provide opportunities for more than 800 students. “For us, the conversation isn’t just about filling jobs,” Stage said. “It’s about creating sustainable pathways that help people see a future for themselves in manufacturing.” Several manufacturing facilities in the region are in the midst of expansion: • TTM Technologies, a leading U.S. manufacturer of advanced electronics and interconnect solutions for aerospace, defense and high-technology markets, which has a plant in DeWitt, completed its buildout of an additional facility, adding 400 jobs and expanding production of high-tech circuit boards for defense and critical electronics applications. • In Cortlandville, the Byrne Hollow Crossing Plant, a dairy manufacturing and processing facility, is increasing its operations, creating 100 new jobs. • The Chobani yogurt company is building a 1.4-million square foot dairy processing facility in Oneida County. This will create more than 1,000 good-paying jobs and double Chobani’s New York state workforce, Stage said. Stage noted several ways that local, state and federal governments can help spur manufacturing job growth in this region. Elected leaders and public agencies could work with industry representatives to create pre-apprenticeship and registered apprenticeship programs seeking to upskill workers and improve employee retention. New York state has a variety of grants, tax incentives and financing programs to support site preparation, infrastructure, workforce development and capital investment. The U.S. Department of Labor has a pay-for-performance incentive program that provides employers $3,500 per new apprentice hired and retained for 90 days. MACNY was previously awarded an $87,000 federal grant that will cover 25 apprentices at nine companies. The manufacturing skills gap in the United States, at its current rate, could result in 2.1 million unfilled jobs by 2030, according to a study by Deloitte and The Manufacturing Institute. In New York state, that gap is on pace to exceed 100,000 unfilled positions within six years. Manufacturing companies will be counting on more women to help fill that gap. While women make up half of the overall U.S. workforce, they only account for 29% of the manufacturing workforce in this country, Stage said. “Pre-apprenticeship programs like Real Life Rosies help to bring awareness to the manufacturing industry to fill some of the gaps, but we have a long way to go and it starts with educating people at younger ages about careers in manufacturing and earn-and-learn opportunities,” she said. As for Micron, that $100 billion-plus project, considered the largest private investment in New York state history, is expected to eventually create up to 50,000 jobs throughout the region, factoring in the spin-off opportunities for construction and supply chains. The plant’s foundation was poured on July 9. “As America celebrates its 250th anniversary, data and memory are foundational to the modern economy — and Micron is increasing our U.S. investments to more than $250 billion through 2035 to meet that moment,” the company’s president and CEO, Sanjay Mehrotra, said in a news release. Bechtel, Micon’s construction partner in the project, reported that 4,500 people will be employed to help build the facility, including skilled craft professionals, local union members representing various trades and apprentices. The Syracuse-based CenterState CEO organization tallies the regional labor force at 397,582 workers (Onondaga, Cayuga, Cortland, Madison and Oswego counties). Job growth isn’t limited to the Central New York region. For the larger area covering portions of the Mohawk Valley, the North Country, the Southern tier, and the western part of the state, there are 155,601 employees in the advanced manufacturing sector, and 155,275 construction workers. The agency’s 2026 Economic Forecast report noted that 41% of community and business leaders surveyed said a shortage of skilled workers in this area remains a problem, though 77% shared a positive economic outlook for the year ahead. Beyond the semiconductor and advanced manufacturing areas, local business leaders also see growth in small manufacturing companies, storage businesses, housing, unmanned flight technology and general construction. “Productive reuse of property,” the report said, “will hopefully continue to preserve unique architecture while driving business.” The report identified several challenges for economic growth in the region, including an aging workforce, outdated equipment, the rising cost of raw materials and “the disconnect between the speed of business needs and the pace of talent readiness.”
SPECIAL REPORT: Tough Business
A string of vacant restaurant buildings shows that many restaurants in the region are struggling — and several are closing By Stefan Yablonski [caption id=attachment_11132 align=alignright width=401] Smokey Bones Bar & Fire Grill on Route 31 in Clay closed its doors in April. It had been in operation since at least 2008.[/caption] By their nature, most restaurants have a limited life. An astonishing 60% go out of business within three years of opening, largely due to fundamental flaws in the planning of the operation. But even restaurants that experience years of success almost always face eventual closure. The restaurant business is very hard and because of both personal factors and external factors beyond anyone’s control, restaurants don’t last forever. For many restaurants, age is a big factor, according to Kenneth Walsleben, professor of practice, entrepreneurship and emerging enterprises at Syracuse University. “The owners have been at it for 20 or 25 years, if not longer, they want some time to themselves,” he said. Such was the case for Jocko’s Famous Ritz Diner in Oswego. Jocko Reitz bought the building in the late 1970s from Robert Shapiro. However, when he stepped away from the business, it eventually closed. [caption id=attachment_11142 align=alignright width=402] For nearly 80 years, Vona’s Restaurant passed through three generations of family in Oswego. It closed its doors on Dec. 31, 2025.[/caption] For nearly 80 years, Vona’s passed through three generations of family in Oswego. Vona’s Restaurant officially closed its doors on Dec. 31, 2025, when no family member wanted to take over. It is on the market. The Ruby Tuesday in Oswego operated for about two decades before permanently closing in April 2026. The restaurant faced multiple temporary health department closures in 2024 and 2025 due to persistent fruit fly and foundation pest issues. Management posted a final closure notice on the doors in mid-April 2026 and the building was put up for sale. The same pattern has been happening in Onondaga County. The big building once used by Smokey Bones Bar & Fire Grill on Route 31 in Clay remains empty, more than six months after the restaurant closed its doors in April. It had been in operation since at least 2008. [caption id=attachment_11130 align=alignright width=401] Ruby Tuesday in Oswego operated for about two decades before permanently closing in April 2026.[/caption] Just down the road from Smokey Bones, the popular Outback Steakhouse closed in August 2024. Another restaurant took its place, La Cocina Mexican Restaurant, but it closed shortly after. The building sits empty. Other very popular restaurants in the northern suburbs of Syracuse have recently closed. Among them, Fireside by the River in Baldwinsville and Primo Nestico’s Bistro Bar in North Syracuse. “I haven’t really paid attention to the Syracuse area. There has always been some turnover, but there probably has never been a tougher time to be a restauranter than now. It’s just brutal,” Walsleben said. In the first year, roughly 20% to 25% of restaurants close or change hands, according to the National Restaurant Association. [caption id=attachment_11122 align=alignright width=401] Outback Steakhouse closed in August 2024. Another restaurant took its place, La Cocina Mexican Restaurant, but it closed shortly after. The building sits empty.[/caption] “Depending on what statistics you look at, you’ll find that any business has a high mortality rate in the first year. That is just the nature of entrepreneurship,” Walsleben said. “There are certain ones that are getting hit hard while others are more fruitful. “And when you look at the restaurant industry you have to factor in labor which is a large part — typically a third of your expenses — and those costs are going up. And there is always turnover which means investing money to train people. Then you’ve got food costs, which is also a third of the typical restaurant budget. Since the pandemic labor has gone up 41%, food costs have gone up 35%. That’s a big tight squeeze righty there. That’s two-thirds of your budget that has gone up 35% to 40% in the last few years. And then the only way you can make that work is to raise the prices.” The National Restaurant Association reports menu prices are up 36% since February of 2020. In a survey released by the association, more than eight in 10 restaurant owners reported that their food, beverage and labor costs are now higher than before the pandemic. You have to deal with the reality of are the customers willing to pay for that? Walsleben added. Restaurants historically have very thin margins; their profit margin is about 5%. “You have a third that goes into food, a third that goes into labor and about 28%, 29% that goes into everything else — overhead, insurance etc. So that brings you down to your 5% leftover,” he said. “Everything is going up. Customer expectations are going up and people aren’t going to spend that much more. So, you have a tight squeeze here,” Walsleben continued. “Restaurants who use delivery apps, they pay a fee to those guys. Those guys don’t work for free. So, you can kind of see where the squeeze comes from.” Stuck in the middle There are pockets of opportunity; the two extremes of the market can make a profit. But the middle gets squeezed out. “If you are a low-end fast-food kind of place, there is room for that. People have changed their budgets. They are still going out, but they are not spending more,” according to Walsleben. “The high end remains positive. If you have a restaurant that brings a specific experience … a great food product or you are catering to high end customers who aren’t so budget conscious, those patrons are going to expect a high-end experience. They expect excellent food every time. They are expecting excellent service. If you can meet those expectations there is room for you at the top. It’s just the guys in the middle are getting the squeeze from both ends. Tough competition, customer expectations, costs are up. Menu items, you can’t raise the prices as much as you need to. That is why you are seeing a lot of restaurants baling out.” The ones that can adapt quickly are the ones who are doing OK. “Success is heavily dependent on the strength of a restaurant’s concept development and the planning of its execution. Eventually things aren’t always new. Things change. So, if you are in the restaurant business you have got to change your menu — keep things new, fresh and update your meals. It is very fickle industry. One year carbs are out, the next year berries are out. Everybody’s diet changes — constantly chasing the latest phase. You have got to adjust your menu and move with those modifications. If you have a static menu that you have used the last couple years that hasn’t changed except for the pricing, you’ve got a problem,” he said. A lot of times these buildings are singular purpose, he added. “You have a commercially viable kitchen and you got a seating area. There is not a lot of other businesses that cater to that type of a layout. So, it’s pretty common to see another restaurant slide in,” he said. One of the things a banker learns early on is you don’t lend money to restaurants … because they fail so quickly. It is very hard to predict who the winners will be. So, if you are a restaurant in addition to all the other challenges, it is very difficult to get loans, according to Walsleben. “You might work really well in the kitchen. But that doesn’t mean you are a great businessperson,” he said. “Restaurants can fail because the owner didn’t know how to manage things properly. There are a lot of challenges. “There is opportunity at the high end and the low end. But in the middle, that’s the death valley. There are just so many things working against you. You really need to have something that will pull people in and continue to pull people in because you to constantly have to change. Think about a theme and a product that is unique to the area people don’t travel that far these days you have to be able to deliver it in an innovative fashion and keep updating to keep people coming in the door.” Out of Business? How Fast? Do nine out of 10 restaurants fail in their first year, as commonly claimed? No. Survival analysis of 1.9 million longitudinal microdata for 81,000 full-service restaurants in a 20-year U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics non public census of business establishments in the western US shows that only 17% of independently owned full-service restaurant startups failed in their first year, compared with 19% for all other service-providing startups, according to ResearchGate. The median lifespan of restaurants is about 4.5 years, slightly longer than that of other service businesses (4.25 years). However, the median lifespan of a restaurant startup with 5 or fewer employees is 3.75 years, slightly shorter than that of other service businesses of the same startup size (4.0 years). What Makes a Restaurant Successful? Opening and maintaining a successful restaurant is not as easy as creating a great menu and serving excellent food. It takes more than that, according to local restaurant owners who have been in business for decades in the region. They all agree that there are some guidelines to running a successful restaurant. • Quality food: Successful restaurants know exactly what they serve and who they serve it to. Delivering the same great taste every single time builds loyal customers. • Smooth operations: Friendly greetings and attentive staff make guests feel welcome from the moment they walk in. Hiring staff for personality and training for skill ensures reliable, caring service. • Smart marketing: Exceptional food and experiences naturally get people talking and sharing online. Word of mouth can help entice customers. Consistent social media and targeted advertising brings in new and repeat guests also. The menu is what keeps patrons coming back to Mimi’s Diner in Fulton, located at 201 N. Second St. “We locally source our produce and our meats. Our chicken and biscuits is a popular, popular special,” said Richard Tagliareni, the third-generation owner and general manager. “It’s all homemade. We have consistently served quality food.” His grandfather started the business more than 55 years ago. Mimi’s is engrained in the community. They cater to the community and are very involved in everything from the schools to local events. The first Mimi’s Drive-In opened in Mexico. Then a second in Oswego and then Fulton. Fulton’s Mimi’s is the only one left. “The last couple of weeks have been kind of slower than normal. October is usually a busier month for us People will start coming back around again. Also, the price of gas is affecting some things,” Tagliareni added. “We try to keep our prices in line. You go out to eat, you’re going to spend about a hundred bucks or so for two people for dinner. You come here to Mimi’s you are probably for two people for dinner it’s between $50 and $60. We are trying to keep our prices in line. We did have to increase our prices a little bit but things are looking OK.” For the Press Box, 29 E. First St., Oswego, it’s also about great food and a family atmosphere. “Our sports bar and restaurant was established in 1984,” said Alison Canale Scanlon, manager. “I think putting the time into everything makes a big difference and treating people like family when they walk into your restaurant. That’s how we have always operated since 1984.” “It’s the family oriented aspect,” she added. “Consistency, quality and presentation of our food — that’s the secret to a successful restaurant. We try to be very consistent with it. We treat people like family when they come in; because we know how we want to be treated when we go to a restaurant. We treat people the same or better.”
Are Bank Lobbies Still Relevant?
Local banking leaders say technology is changing the way customers use their banks — and their lobbies By Deborah Jeanne Post [caption id=attachment_11109 align=alignright width=300] Steve Gorczynski is M&T Bank Central New York regional president.[/caption] When was the last time you entered the lobby of your bank? If it’s been a while, you’re part of a trend of eschewing the lobby in favor of ATMs, drive-thrus, online banking and remote deposit. A 2025 study performed by the American Bankers Association revealed that only 9% of consumers use bank branches as their preferred way to do banking and 76% prefer mobile banking. The trend away from the lobby reflects consumer behavior in other areas of doing business, including online shopping instead of perusing the mall, ordering fast food at a kiosk, not at the counter and selecting curbside pick-up rather than walking into the restaurant. Consumers want convenience and going in the lobby adds another layer to the task. It also places consumers face to face with one or more representatives of the business, something less favorable to people feeling burned out from interpersonal interactions. Nixing or at least minimizing the size of the lobby isn’t necessarily negative for banks. Fewer people passing through their doors reduces overhead for building maintenance, staffing and furnishing. Greater reliance on virtual banking can mean closing brick and mortar locations and hiring fewer staffers to cover roles like teller and lending officer. “Our focus is on meeting customers where they are and giving them flexibility in how they bank,” said Steve Gorczynski, M&T Bank Central New York regional president. “While many everyday transactions can be supported digitally and through ATMs, branches remain important for more complex financial needs, offering face-to-face guidance and a more personal banking experience.” Talking with a commercial lender or working on a home mortgage are two examples where meeting face-to-face is more desirable for many people. They can receive immediate feedback to questions and can possibly reach their goals more quickly. But there’s little need to have a large seating area, long counters and numerous tellers for routine banking that’s quicker to handle virtually. Online banking can also help people on the go more readily complete banking tasks such as depositing checks, transferring funds among accounts and checking balances. [caption id=attachment_11135 align=alignright width=300] Tina M. Stephens is the vice president branch administration for Fulton Savings Bank.[/caption] “The traditional bank lobby is certainly being evaluated by most institutions today, as the typical large, open and cavernous spaces do not necessarily meet the needs of today’s customers,” said Tina M. Stephens, vice president branch administration for Fulton Savings Bank. “Traditional lobbies often bisect traditional teller stations and customer service areas, which adds confusion, especially for the demographic who routinely use online banking and only access the lobby for customer service needs.” Despite the rollback in physical locations across the industry, Fulton Savings Bank began modernizing its six branch offices in Oswego and Onondaga counties about three years ago and have finished four offices so far in Baldwinsville, Fulton, Constantia, and Phoenix. “We made the decision to build a new branch across the street from our current office in Brewerton which will be completed by the end of 2026, and we will begin the retrofit of our Central Square office in early 2027,” Stephens said. “Our efforts specifically address where we think customers will be in the next three to five years and have greater flexibility to make changes out into the future.” The bank may be onto something, as numerous reports state that screen-weary Gen Z young adults crave more in-person interactions than virtual ones. If the pendulum continues to swing in that direction, it’s hard to see all physical bank areas disappear, even if they change somewhat. Fulton Savings Bank has also consolidated its teller and customer service representative areas to larger “universal banker” areas, where the bank representative can address all customer retail needs. A one-stop-shop experience appeals to busy banking customers who want to perform a few different banking tasks in one visit. Stephens also said that Fulton Savings Bank made additional technology and security enhancements and created flex spaces to accommodate bank meetings throughout the two-county branch footprint. At Solvay Bank, Elizabeth Lavier, vice president marketing and communications manager, lauded digital and online services as convenient and flexible for managing finances; however, “technology is not meant to replace what matters most: the relationships behind every account that have always been at the heart of community banking,” she said. “Even in today’s digital-first world, people of all ages still value the opportunity to sit down with a trusted banker for personalized guidance. We understand that some of life’s biggest moments call for more than a screen.” Lavier views digital banking as another way for the organization to serve customers rather than a replacement for branches, tellers and lenders, which tend to serve customers better for transactions like buying a first car, purchasing a home, saving for a child’s education, or planning for retirement. “Those conversations, built on understanding, experience and personal guidance, are what community banking is all about,” Lavier said. “At the end of the day, banking is about more than transactions. It’s about helping our customers achieve their goals and being there for them every step of the way. By combining the convenience of digital banking with the care, commitment, and personal service of a local community bank, Solvay Bank offers customers the best of both worlds.” Are Paper Checks Destined to Disappear? With the ubiquity of debit cards, online payments, virtual checks and peer-to-peer payment platforms like Venmo, Zelle and PayPal, will paper checks become passe? “In my view, paper checks are unlikely to disappear in the near future,” said Tina M. Stephens, vice president branch administration for Fulton Savings Bank. “They continue to serve a practical purpose by providing a clear paper trail and tangible proof of payment.” According to the American Banker, a leading trade publication that covers the banking and financial industry, in 2024, checks accounted for 65% of all payment fraud losses. Paper checks should be phased out, according to the publication. “The phrase, ‘The check’s in the mail’ probably sounds strange to younger people because the era of paper checks is rapidly drawing to a close. Put bluntly, checks are an expensive, insecure legacy that is a drag on the U.S. economy. Rather than wait for them to vanish slowly, the pragmatic choice is to strategically accelerate the transition to paperless payments.”
Retiring from Farming
Start now to ensure your farm passes to the next generation Deborah Jeanne Post [caption id=attachment_11062 align=alignright width=405] Adam C. Howell, outreach director at Cornell’s NY FarmNet: “Retirement from farming is atypical planning,” he says.[/caption] Roughly 70% of family-owned farms will transfer ownership withing the next two decades, according to data from to the USDA census. Only 30% of those will remain in the family. The number of farms in New York is shrinking as the size of farms increases. In other words, there are fewer farms in the state, but they’re much larger. This is why succession planning is so important for family farms. A farm represents not only a way to make a living but a legacy and family tradition. Many families want to preserve the small farm segment of agriculture and the values it represents. Passing the family farm to the next generation can’t be left to chance. And it shouldn’t be left for “the kids to figure out” after the older generation dies. Succession planning in agriculture isn’t like other types of business retirement planning or personal final planning. “Retirement from farming is atypical planning,” said Adam C. Howell, outreach director at Cornell’s NY FarmNet. “Most farmers, their assets and the way they live and survive in retirement is tied up in the equity in the farm. Those conversations must take place a lot earlier than they think. They’re dealing with something asset-heavy that may require a trust and tax planning.” NY FarmNet offers farmers free, confidential consultation services regarding financial and business management, and family, and mental health support for farmers in New York state. It’s a program of Cornell University in Ithaca. Howell urges farmers to begin the conversation early. Most family farms are run by generations with the oldest generation most involved and typically with fewer of the middle-aged adults and young adults involved. Some of the younger generation may have off-farm jobs and not live on the homestead. “Different people have different expectations on their legacy,” Howell said. “Intergenerational conflict and discussions can be difficult. It may be good to check with NY FarmNet or Ag Mediation to help mediate these conversations with a third party. A lot of farms have broken up because people can’t decide how to divide things.” New York State Agricultural Mediation Program is a USDA‑certified, free or low‑cost service for farmers. Fair is not always equal. A sole owner simply stating that he wants to divide things equally among his children may leave one-quarter of the farm operation to an adult child who moved away and hasn’t sat in a tractor for decades. The three adult children who have toiled on the farm for 30 years may need to buy out the fourth, non-farming sibling but cannot because all of their money is tied up in the equipment, land and stock that supports their livelihood. Their payrate may not allow them to set aside much to buy out the non-farming sibling. As a result, they may need to sell parts of the farm off in order to keep it. However, doing so may limit their ability to sufficiently support their families. The farm owner may need to bequeath more assets to the farming siblings because their efforts have kept the farm going and without those assets and their work, the farm will cease operations. Howell advises seeking professional help on tax and legal issues. Without it, families can be exposed to expensive problems and infighting. A third-party expert can help farm families navigate what is truly fair in the family’s succession plans. Beyond the practical aspects of inheritance, succession also relies upon planning who will operate the farm and how. “I think it’s important that farmers understand the means and methods of farming are always changing,” Howell said. For example, many young adult farmers earn a degree at a school such as Cornell, SUNY Cobleskill or Morrisville, work on a different farm for a while and then return to their family farm with big ideas on how to improve the farm — if only their dad and uncles will agree. Intergenerational conflict is often centered on newer ideas such agritourism, online marketing and shipping goods. “It causes conflict,” Howell said. “A lot of it comes down to communication and respect within the family. If no one in the family wants to take on farming, what we’ll see is older farmers start to help trusted managers buy into the farm.” The middle-aged generation, now in their 40s and 50s, often struggle with wresting the helm from their parents. Howell said that many older farmers don’t discuss with their grown children their vital business information such as vendors, ordering supplies, pricing, recordkeeping and farm planning. They even claim that “the kids” aren’t ready yet. These gaps in cross-training may cause significant problems even before the older generation dies, if there’s an illness or injury. Howell urges farmers to document these processes and cross-train others on the farm how to handle these areas “to make sure if one person is incapacitated, the entire operation is not at risk,” he said. Mark Modzeleski, financial adviser, financial planner and president at Legacy Wealth Advisors of NY in Syracuse, advises families to talk sooner than later about who should be operating the farm. “Someone is driving the farm,” he said. “Have you decided who? Be honest when you have that conversation. Who do they turn to when there’s a question? Or who has the potential to be leaders?” Planning for leadership continuity is vital. Unfortunately, talking like this can become fraught with emotions if it’s only the family involved. Modzeleski advised finding a third party who can help drive the conversation. “Invite the right people to the conversation who can get you from point A to point B,” he said. “This is a marathon, not a sprint.” It may take sitting down a few times with an estate planning attorney who specializes in farm transition, along with a tax professional and others who can help moderate and plan. Family members, owners and possibly, integral farm managers should attend the meetings. “Figure out what you want your legacy to be,” Modzeleski added.
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Studying Science in an Anti-Scientific Time
This Chronicle Review Deep Cut was first published in 2025. By Julianne Werlin Thanks for reading The Chronicle Review! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. Subscribe The last two decades have not been kind to science studies. Already bruised and battered by the “science wars” of the 1990s, by the 2000s sociologists of science — who had long argued that science had to be understood in its human context — were encountering the funhouse-mirror version of their own views in right-wing critiques of climate scientists. It was enough to give some prominent scholars pause. “Was I wrong to participate in the invention of this field known as science studies?” asked Bruno Latour, the most famous sociologist of science in the world, in 2003. “Should we apologize for having been wrong all along? Or should we rather bring the sword of criticism to criticism itself and do a bit of soul-searching here: What were we really after when we were so intent on showing the social construction of scientific facts?” In response, Latour proposed a change of method and attitude. Science studies, now chastened and contrite, would no longer seek to strip facts of their authority, but to enrich and enhance them. What this meant in practice was never fully clear. But his diagnosis of problems resonated, even if his solutions did not. Latour’s exercise in public hand-wringing signaled a shift in mood. By 2016, with the first election of Donald Trump, the idea that skepticism of science was a right-wing position, not a left-wing one, had become a commonplace, discussed eagerly in The New York Times. For liberals, vaccine denial during the Covid era and Trump’s second-term attacks on the funding of scientific research, covered extensively in these pages, added a new urgency to the defense of science on both practical and principled grounds. There was little appetite for a sociology or philosophy of science that emphasized the messiness and missteps of the scientific process rather than its integrity and triumphs. The distinguished historian of science Peter Dear’s new book, The World as We Know It: From Natural Philosophy to Modern Science (Princeton University Press, 2025), which seeks to tell the story of 18th- and 19th-century science for a general public, may seem comfortably remote from these bitter contests. In its 16 short chapters, Dear draws swift, sure sketches of major discoveries from Newton to Einstein, ably guiding the reader through debates on stellar nebulae, animal taxonomy, atomic chemistry, evolution, and other flashpoints in the history of science. But though a work of history, Dear’s book must still negotiate our polarized present. In a blurb on its back cover, the historian of biology Lynn K. Nyhart alludes to the “present moment, when scientific knowledge is being swamped by misinformation and its institutions are under siege.” Dear himself, in his conclusion, refers to the “yard signs” and “bumper stickers” that proclaim “Science Is Real.” One antidote to both anti-science propaganda and to reductive slogans in science’s defense is a robust history and philosophy of science: exactly what Dear’s scholarship has long offered. But his new book illustrates how difficult such work has become. Dear, an emeritus professor of history at Cornell University, is best known as a creative and philosophically minded historian of the Scientific Revolution. His edited volume The Literary Structure of Scientific Argument (1991) analyzed the rhetoric of Galileo’s thought experiments to brilliant effect. Discipline and Experience: The Mathematical Way in the Scientific Revolution (1995) was a major contribution to the analysis of scientific experiments in early modern Europe and beyond, while Revolutionizing the Sciences: European Knowledge in Transition, 1500-1700 (2001), now in its third edition, remains one of the best overviews of the profound epistemological upheavals of 16th- and 17th-century science. But Dear has also ventured into later periods. Nearly two decades ago, in The Intelligibility of Nature: How Science Makes Sense of the World (2006), he turned to the 18th and 19th centuries to sketch a history and theory of scientific knowledge. Aimed at a generalist audience, Dear’s simple prose belied serious philosophical ambitions. Science, Dear argued, has two aspects: “natural philosophy,” the quest to understand the true nature of the universe, and “instrumentality,” the applied skills and technologies that allow us to manipulate the world for human advantage. Both strands are ancient, but the innovation of the phenomenon we call “science” was to yoke them together. As Francis Bacon wrote, “Human knowledge and human power meet in one; for where the cause is not known, the effect cannot be produced,” an insight typically abridged to “knowledge is power.” Or, in Bertrand Russell’s characteristically blunt phrase, science has two functions, “1. to enable us to know things, and 2., to enable us to do things.” So far, so conventional. But Dear took issue with this familiar story in one respect. Bacon’s formula implied that theory and practice could be fused in a single method. In fact, Dear argued, the quest to understand nature and the desire to manipulate it were coupled only loosely. They could come together, but they could also pull apart. Focusing on natural philosophy, the “knowing” half of the scientific circle, he used a series of case studies from cosmology, taxonomy, chemistry, electromagnetism, and quantum theory to show how theories changed over time, in dialogue with practice, but never reducible to it. Take the case of matter, the basic substrate of the physical world. In the 18th and 19th centuries, scientists not only disagreed about what it was, but also about how well it could be known. In 1789, the chemist Antoine Lavoisier dismissed speculation about the atomic composition of chemicals as “discussions entirely of a metaphysical nature,” as he sought to orient chemistry away from philosophical abstraction and toward laboratory results. But in the 19th century, atoms returned with a vengeance in the atomic chemistry of John Dalton, who wanted to explain the underlying structure of nature. It was not just that Dalton and Lavoisier had a different set of experimental results, or even a different theory, Dear showed. What counted as an explanation had changed. In arguing that scientific theories depended on their intelligibility to human beings with complex arrays of beliefs and commitments, Dear was in sympathy with science studies. Key figures such as the sociologist Steven Shapin emphasized the importance of psychological mechanisms like trust in the formation and acceptance of scientific ideas. But in focusing on the scientific pursuit of knowledge, not its politics or economics, Dear resisted the more cynical perspective of some of his colleagues. The Intelligibility of Nature strikes a very different note than Shapin’s collection of a few years later, Never Pure: Historical Studies of Science as If It Was Produced by People With Bodies, Situated in Time, Space, Culture, and Society, and Struggling for Credibility and Authority (2010), to name just one example. Walking a very fine line, Dear depicted science as driven at once by complex social dynamics and by the intellectual power of real discoveries. It was a testament not only to his own acumen but also to the vitality of the field that he was able to do so. Nearly two decades later, The World as We Know It returns to the questions broached in The Intelligibility of Nature. Like Dear’s earlier study, it begins with the Newtonian cosmos and ends with debates between Einstein and Bohr on quantum physics. Beyond its terminal figures, many of the same characters appear in both studies, including the naturalists John Ray and the Comte de Buffon; the chemists Étienne François Geoffroy, Antoine Lavoisier, and John Dalton; as well as Charles Darwin and Michael Faraday, among others. Its subject is nearly identical: As in The Intelligibility of Nature, The World as We Know It considers natural philosophy as opposed to instrumentality, here defined as the “desire to create a picture of what the world is really like — the world as God knows it — rather than simply having instrumental or operational control over it.” The two books also overlap in insights — and sometimes even in language. The reader who has learned in The Intelligibility of Nature that Buffon’s method of classifying animals “reflected his belief in the importance of the senses and empiricism in learning about nature (a doctrine associated with Newton and the philosopher John Locke)” will experience a sense of déjà vu on reading, in The World as We Know It, that the classification “reflects Buffon’s commitment to the epistemological stance of Newton and his philosophical underlaborer John Locke, who stressed the role of the senses in creating natural knowledge.” Later in the passage, we read that, “because of its stress on understanding the ways of life of animals in their environments, Buffon’s approach could almost be labeled (anachronistically) as ‘ecological.’” And again, “an anachronistic way of putting it would be to say that Buffon recommends an ecological mode of understanding.” Likewise, in The Intelligibility of Nature we read of Dalton that he was initially drawn to meteorology, and that: He did a bit of experimental work on these things, especially having to do with the water-holding capacity of gases, but his real interest lay in understanding what, at an underlying natural-philosophical level, was really going on physically.” Whereas, in The World as We Know It: He did experimental work on these things, especially concerning the water-holding capacity of gases — although not at a very refined level quantitatively — but he was continually trying to develop a theoretical conception of what was happening physically. The final full chapter of each book closes on the same resigned note. Intelligibility: These days, most serious work on the natural philosophical underpinnings and implications of quantum mechanics is performed not by physicists but by philosophers of science. Among scientific practitioners themselves, Bohr’s attempt to use instrumentality as sufficient grounds for a respectable science has met with a high degree of success. And again, in The World as We Know It: Bohr’s and Einstein’s concerns are now questions that are mostly discussed by philosophers of science rather than by physicists themselves. The marginalization of these sorts of questions amounts to the demise of natural philosophy, at least in physics, in the 20th century. Quantum mechanics “works,” and that’s good enough for most scientists who encounter it. Examples could be multiplied. When handling the same subject matter, some echoes are inevitable. Scholars should not feel that because they have written “Isaac Newton died in 1727” in one book, in the next they must describe him as perishing, expiring, or meeting his maker. But the repetitions of language and arguments (not to mention six reproduced images) threaded throughout The World as We Know It are more extensive than that. They should have been caught by Princeton University Press or its reviewers, and revised. Because the two books have so much in common, it is easy to see where they diverge. The World as We Know It is a less theoretical work than its predecessor. The sociology of knowledge that organized The Intelligibility of Nature has been reduced in scale and folded into readings and examples. The taut interplay between history and theory, which gave the earlier study so much interest, is there, but it is subtle. In the earlier book, the case studies demonstrated theoretical claims about the character and development of science. In the later work, each narrative of discovery is an end in itself. Insights emerge from the history, but they do not control the organization of the study. With the theory muted, it can be hard to understand the logic uniting Dear’s sprawling history of more than two centuries of scientific knowledge. The 16 brisk chapters cover an enormous amount of material. But the closer the volume edges to comprehensiveness, the more obvious the missing elements become. A chapter on “Institutions and Pedagogy,” describing the birth of the research university, illustrates the problem. Inserted roughly halfway through the book, the unnumbered chapter is designed as an “entr’acte,” in acknowledgement that it does not fit the study’s organization around scientific discoveries. Yet as Dear is well aware, no general history of the development of modern science can bracket its 19th-century institutionalization and professionalization. It was the 19th-century university, after all, that gave us the “scientist,” a term coined by the Cambridge philosopher William Whewell. Dear’s history of scientific discoveries implies a wider social and institutional history, but it remains largely subterranean, only occasionally extruded under the pressure of the narrative. It must be said that the balance is not all on the side of the earlier study. There are some advantages to the more historical, less theoretical organization of The World as We Know It. Dear’s accounts of paradigm shifts are remarkably lucid, no small accomplishment given that they span fields and centuries. He makes excellent use of the wealth of new scholarship on Darwin and his influences, to which he has himself contributed. It is satisfying to see puzzle pieces from Buffon’s natural history, Georges Cuvier’s animal taxonomy, Thomas Robert Malthus’s demography, and Charles Lyell’s geology recombined seamlessly in the Darwinian jigsaw. Likewise, Dear’s discussion of stellar nebulae, divided between chapters two and 15, shows vividly how Newton, Kant, Herschel, and Hubble reimagined insights and observations as they sought to discover whether the diffuse light that filtered through early telescopes was a glowing, gaseous substance or discrete but distant stars. Yet despite such pleasures, the book remains a more modest work than The Intelligibility of Nature. Dear has clearly not changed his views about the history of science. But in the two decades that have elapsed, the discipline and the world around it have changed, making it harder to write a sociologically and philosophically ambitious history of science for the general reader. That is a shame, because in the age of Silicon Valley and biotechnology, both the reciprocity and the tensions Dear identified between the epistemological and instrumental ambitions of science are more evident than ever. In recent years, some of the most exciting new books on the history of science in early modernity have focused precisely on this pressure point. Important studies such as Pamela H. Smith’s From Lived Experience to the Written Word (2022), James Poskett’s Horizons: The Global Origins of Modern Science (2022), and Vera Keller’s The Interlopers: Early Stuart Projects and the Undisciplining of Knowledge (2023) all shed new light on how early modern science negotiated the relationship between its instrumental and epistemological ambitions, or in Russell’s phrase, knowing and doing. There is every opportunity for a philosophically informed approach to draw new insights from this wealth of material. Dear, unfortunately, has not done so in The World as We Know It. But for future scholars of the history of science, his body of work over nearly four decades may provide just the model. Julianne Werlin is an associate professor of English at Duke University. Thanks for reading The Chronicle Review! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. Subscribe
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Good science requires much more than evidence
Empiricists believe that scientific theories are true only if they make correct empirical predictions: if we can't verify these predictions, then there is no reason to expect that they tell us anything about reality. However, Professor of Philosophy at King's College David Kyle Johnson argues that this is mistaken. In response to Bas van Fraassen, who has written on this subject for the IAI, he argues that we have many reasons for believing a theory to be true, such as it being parsimonious and having large scope — qualities which have been used throughout the history of science as criteria for judging theories. In 2024, Princeton philosopher Bas van Fraassen wrote a short article for IAI News entitled “Science Does not Describe Reality: The Limits and Benefits of Explanation.” At the time, I was working on two projects (a science book and a Great Course) that, when completed, would (among other things) defend science’s ability to describe reality. I wanted to write a response to van Fraassen, but the projects demanded too much of my attention. But now that those projects are complete, I am in a position to explain the objections to van Fraassen’s thesis. Summarizing van Fraassen’s argumentIn a nutshell, his argument is this: What scientists do is make predictions based on theories and then invite others to test to see whether those predictions are borne out. “If theory T is right, result R should happen in experimental condition C.” Many think that running an experiment that shows that R happens in condition C is proof that theory T is true (and should be believed). But, van Fraassen argues, that R happened in condition C is only a reason to think that R happens in condition C. That’s the only observable, or empirical, result we can actually see, so that is all that we are really justified in believing. (The underlying theory that made that prediction still may or may not be true.) That is why he calls those who accept his position “empiricists.”Before I explain what is wrong with this position, let me explain what it gets right. What van Fraassen Gets RightFirst, a theory correctly predicting the results of an experiment is not, strictly speaking, “proof” that the theory is correct. The basic line of reasoning is this:If the theory T is true, result R should happen. Result R did happen. Thus, theory T is true.In other words:“If T then R. R. Thus, T.”This is a deductively invalid, fallacious mode of reasoning, called “affirming the consequent.” Those premises do not guarantee that the conclusion follows. “If I am in Pennsylvania, then I am in the USA. I am in the USA. Thus, I am in Pennsylvania.” Clearly that argument doesn’t guarantee its conclusion; neither does the above argument.However, science is not a deductive method of reasoning; it is an inductive one. And inductive arguments merely try to raise the probability of their conclusion, not “prove” them for certain. Thus, the fact that an experimental result doesn’t prove a theory is true is irrelevant; it’s not supposed to. That is not what scientific reasoning is about.___If the hypothesis that something exists clearly provides the best explanation for what we can observe, then the belief that it exists is what is rational.___Second, it’s also true that a single experimental result doesn’t provide enough justification to believe that a theory is true. Scientists do not come to a consensus about whether a theory is true by looking at a single experiment; they look at all the evidence to determine where the preponderance of evidence points. The mere fact that I am in the USA raises the probability that I am in Pennsylvania, but not nearly enough to conclude that I am in Pennsylvania. However, if I am also regularly encountering people wearing Eagles and Phillies hats and seeing advertisements for Founding Father tours, I probably am. In the same way, a theory successfully predicting the outcome of one experiment is not enough to conclude that it is true; but if a theory makes a wide variety of predictions that are all vindicated by multiple experiments, performed by many different groups and people, all actively trying to prove the theory false (which is what good scientific experiments are designed to do)—that is a good reason to conclude that the theory is true. In other words, if you repeatedly try to prove something false but can’t, that is a very good indication that it isn’t. The problem of underdeterminationIn reply, those whom van Fraassen calls “empiricists” often point to the “problem of underdetermination.” For any given theory that makes successful predictions about what happens in experimental conditions, there are countless other possible theories that make exactly the same predictions—and since they do, the experimental evidence in question is just as much reason to accept any of those theories as it is to accept our original one. Thus, the argument goes, we have no way of knowing whether our original theory is true, or one of the other “predictively equivalent” theories is true. SUGGESTED VIEWING How Occam's Razor changed the world With Johnjoe McFadden As an example of underdetermination, philosophers often offer this example. The evidence of fossils seems to provide reason to conclude that the universe is quite old; ancient fossils are what the “ancient universe” hypothesis predicts. But it’s also possible that God created an ancient-looking universe 200 years ago, complete with a “fake” fossil record for us to find, to make it look old. The existence of fossils is what that theory predicts too. So, the argument goes, the fossil record can’t be used as evidence that the universe is ancient; the fossil record supports the “200-year-old ancient-looking universe” theory just as much. The problem of underdetermination points out that, for any theory with supporting evidence, we could invent another completely different theory that predicts exactly the same evidence, and thus undermine that evidence’s ability to support the original theory.But this “argument from underdetermination” betrays a fundamental misunderstanding of what scientific reasoning is and how it works. To explain, let me use another rather strange (but very real and commonly discussed) philosophical thought experiment called “The Grue Problem.” The “Grue” ProblemSuppose I want to know what color emeralds are, so I observe a few, see that they all appear green, and form the theory that “all emeralds are green.” I thus predict that the next 100 emeralds I find will also appear to be green. And let’s say that happens, and so I thus conclude that my theory that all emeralds are green is true. Now, one might rightly point out that I don’t know for sure that all emeralds are green—I have not seen them all. Maybe some I haven’t found yet are blue. Fair enough. After all, we used to think that all swans were white, until we found some black ones. But let’s say that I go on a quest and collect every emerald in the universe—and, for the sake of the argument, let’s say I can do this, and can even know that I have every one of them. So, I collect them all, look at them all, and verify that they all appear green. Can’t I now rightly conclude that all emeralds are green?Inspired by the problem of underdetermination, a friend might argue that I cannot.Sure, they all appear green now—but there could be another kind of color called “grue.” Something is grue if it is green up to a certain point in time, but then spontaneously turns blue. And there could be an infinite number of “shades” of grue. Something that is one shade of grue will turn blue at noon today, but something that is another shade of grue will turn blue at noon tomorrow, etc. So yes, the emeralds appear green now; and since they haven’t turned blue yet, they are not some “past” shade of grue. But they might be some “future” shade of grue (e.g., they may turn blue at noon tomorrow). And since all future shades of grue are consistent with “being green up to this point in time,” the evidence you have is completely consistent with the notion that all emeralds are some future shade of grue, rather than green. Indeed, that they would appear green until now is what the “some future shade of grue” hypothesis predicts. So, we have just as much reason to conclude that all emeralds are some shade of grue as we do to conclude that they are green.You’re probably thinking “It’s not equally possible that the emeralds are grue; they are obviously green.” You are right! But explaining why your instinctive reaction to my friend’s argument is correct will help inform why van Fraassen’s “empiricist” is wrong and science actually does describe reality.The main mistake my friend makes is in thinking that the “empirical evidence” (of all the emeralds appearing green) is (or even should be) all I am using to draw the conclusion that all emeralds are green. It is not. I am also considering known facts about how colors typically work; things don’t usually change color, and when they do, they don’t do so suddenly, without cause, and all at once. So, even though the simple evidence of the emeralds all appearing green up to this point is consistent with them being some future shade of grue—that is even what the grue hypothesis “predicts”—it is still exceedingly unlikely that they are. The hypothesis that they are green is much more likely. Understanding science refutes the problem of underdetermination The misunderstanding about science that the “empiricist” pointing to “the problem of underdetermination” makes is similar to the one that my friend made. Science is not just about considering experimental evidence; in fact, it’s not even just about considering empirical evidence. As Ernan McMullin and many other philosophers of science have pointed out, the inference that makes science is “inference to the best explanation” (sometimes called “abduction” or “retroduction” by McMullin). While, depending on the circumstances, scientists use many different kinds of reasoning, science as a whole is, simply put, the process of considering multiple competing explanations and comparing them to certain criteria—explanatory criteria (the kinds of things explanations must be and do, by definition, to be a good explanation)—to see which explanation is the best.And these criteria do not deal only with empirical results. Yes, successful predictions raise the probability of a hypothesis, but it’s also the case that the more new assumptions a theory makes, the less likely it is to be true; every new assumption presents an opportunity for the theory to be false. (The fewer assumptions a theory makes, the simpler or “more parsimonious” it is said to be.) Likewise, the more existing evidence a theory contradicts, the less likely it is, because in order for a theory to be true, every piece of evidence it contradicts has to be somehow faulty. (The fewer established theories a new theory contradicts, the more “conservative” it is said to be.) And, obviously, the more something explains, the better explanation it is. (This is called having “scope.”) If a theory raises unanswerable questions, it’s not expanding our understanding, and thus is not wide-scoping. Scientists consider all these things when deciding which theory to accept, because the theory that adheres best to these explanatory criteria is most likely to be true.___the mere fact that a theory’s predictive success is why it “sticks around” or “becomes accepted” in the scientific community is not a reason to be skeptical about its truth.___The reason the grue hypothesis is no good is because it invents an entirely new kind of color—not just a new shade, but an entirely different category of color (a different way colors work)—and thus is not parsimonious. It raises unanswerable questions about how and why emeralds would just spontaneously change from green to blue (and thus does not have wide scope). And it contradicts what is already well established about how color works (and thus is unconservative).The theories that the problem of underdetermination points to do the same thing. Yes, the theory that God created an “ancient-looking universe” (complete with an ancient-looking fossil record) two hundred years ago is also consistent with the empirical evidence (of a fossil record) that presently exists; but that theory is monumentally unparsimonious (it requires many extra assumptions about infinite entities) and not wide-scoping (it raises unanswerable questions about why God would do such a thing). So, I can rationally conclude that it is false.Indeed, the history of science includes many examples of theories that were rejected because they lacked parsimony and/or scope, even before their falsity (and the truth of their competing theory) was confirmed by observation. As I point out in my book, geocentrism was rejected by the scientific community because it lacked parsimony, almost 200 years before the observation of parallax confirmed that the Earth moves around the sun. And the continuum theory of matter was completely rejected by 1860, because it couldn’t explain chemical reactions or organize matter into a periodic table, even though the experiments that eventually confirmed atomic theory weren’t even proposed until the 1870s. Solving the best of a bad lot problemIn response, the “empiricists” are likely to object, this time pointing to the “best of a bad lot” problem. “We have no reason to conclude that an explanation that has been shown to be better than others is true because we have no guarantee that the true theory was among those that we were considering.” If you have a “lot” (a collection) of poor explanations, even the best one is not true.The responses to this problem, however, are numerous. Peter Lipton argues that the set of hypotheses that scientists consider are not just randomly selected and thus unlikely to contain a theory that is true; they use existing knowledge to home in on what is most likely to be true. A doctor trying to explain abdominal pain is not going to bother wondering whether demons are causing it; they are going to stick with things like appendicitis and kidney stones, because they are most likely. Further, despite its name, inference to the best explanation is not just the process of comparing hypotheses and accepting the best one; we also want one that is a good explanation in its own right. If it’s not, we are going to keep looking until we find an explanation that is. And while that process does not guarantee that we will come across the exact truth, it’s very likely that the theory that emerges as the best will be at least approximately true, and thus we will be justified in believing it. And lastly, as I point out in my book, although many theories not based in scientific evidence (like geocentrism and continuum theory) have been completely overturned, science almost always progresses by the refinement of scientifically established theories—not their replacement. (Although our sun is not the center of the universe, heliocentrism was our first step in understanding the Earth’s true place in the universe.) So even if a theory we accept today may not be completely right, accepting it is a step on the journey toward the complete truth. The example of atomic theoryNow, it’s worth pointing out that most empiricists are not skeptical of all scientific theories; they are only skeptical of the ones that hypothesize the existence of “unobservables.” It’s not like they think that round Earth, heliocentrism, and germ theory are just useful (but untrue) “instruments” for making predictions about how to most efficiently navigate the seas, predict planetary motion, and treat diseases. They admit that the Earth actually is round, that the planets revolve around the sun, and that germs exist and cause disease. These facts and entities can be observed; the theories that suggest they exist are true. It’s only when theories start hypothesizing the existence of unobservables—like electrons, or quantum fields—that can’t be observed directly, that we should start doubting the theories’ truth. And to be fair to van Fraassen, in this published work, he doesn’t really say that we should doubt the truth of such theories. Only that scientific reasoning does not rationally force us to accept them as true. Skepticism, or agnosticism, he argues, is warranted. SUGGESTED READING Science is based in metaphor By Andrew Reynolds But the history of atomic theory throws a monkey wrench into that argument. Atoms used to be unobservable; again, scientists first accepted the theory that they exist because it had such grandiose explanatory power. But then atoms were seen with electron microscopes. They thus moved into the category of the observable. But this didn’t substantially change anything about what scientists were justified in believing; it certainly didn’t change any “atomic skeptics’” minds. It just confirmed what everyone already knew! If the hypothesis that something exists clearly provides the best explanation for what we can observe, then the belief that it exists is what is rational. The fact that the thing itself is not technically observable does not make doubting its existence rational.What’s more, the atoms were seen with an electron microscope. But electrons are themselves unobservable. How can an electron microscope reveal an atom if electrons are not real? This leads us to what is famously known as Hilary Putnam’s “miracle argument.” It’s (not) a miraclePhilosopher Hilary Putnam’s miracle argument is somewhat famous. Basically, he argued that a scientific theory being able to repeatedly make successful predictions—even about unobservables—without being at least approximately true would require a “miracle.” In other words, it would be such an improbable occurrence that it could not rationally be believed—the better explanation for why scientific theories about unobservables make the right predictions is because the unobservable entities and structures they hypothesize exist.Van Fraassen has addressed this argument. Indeed, in his original article, where he references Alison Gopnik’s point about orgasms not being “necessary for procreation” even though the desire for orgasm “drives the creation of progeny,” he is pointing to his own argument about how organisms are not naturally selected by evolution to get true beliefs; to the extent that belief-forming processes are selected for, the ones that are selected are the ones that are useful for survival—not the ones that produce true beliefs. In the same way, van Fraassen argues, scientific theories are accepted, not because they are true, but because they aren’t falsified; they make successful predictions; that’s what makes them “stick around.” So, the fact that they make successful predictions (and thus became accepted) is not a reason to think they are true.This argument is similar to C. S. Lewis’s “argument from reason,” which he used to argue against evolution: “The truth of evolution undercuts our ability to know that it is true.” Lewis’ argument famously failed; Elizabeth Anscombe, by Lewis’s own admission, demolished Lewis in a debate on the topic, and I have explained elsewhere why modified versions of the argument fail as well. In short, it’s because it fails to recognize that a belief-forming process can make an organism more likely to survive because it reliably produces true beliefs. It is therefore not the case that beliefs generated by naturally selected belief-forming processes are automatically false or unjustified.In the same way, the reason a theory “sticks around” could be because it’s not falsified, because it “makes correct predictions.” But the reason it makes correct predictions is most likely because it is true. (In pointing this out, I am echoing the arguments of Musgrave, Lipton, Psillos, and Kitcher, who refuted van Fraassen’s argument and analogy long before his 2024 article.) It would be a huge coincidence that it could do so without being true. And that is the point of Putnam’s miracle argument. Thus, contrary to van Fraassen’s suggestion, the mere fact that a theory’s predictive success is why it “sticks around” or “becomes accepted” in the scientific community is not a reason to be skeptical about its truth. ConclusionLet me close by saying something about the fact that empiricists don’t doubt the truth of all scientific theories, just the ones that hypothesize unobservables. In today’s society, this theory is dangerous to espouse publicly. The nuance between being skeptical about all of science, and just the highly technical theories about unobservables, is guaranteed to be lost to the average reader. And there is so much unjustified skepticism and doubt about the findings of science and experts that a headline like “Science Does Not Describe Reality” could easily fuel the anti-science movement, worsen climate change denial and cause the next pandemic.This is why I believe it was important to still respond to van Fraassen’s article, a full two years after he wrote it. Not only, as I have argued, does it represent a philosophically inaccurate view of how scientific reasoning works and what scientific reasoning can do, but it is a dangerous view to boot. It should thus be rejected.
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Intel Panther Lake Teardown, 18A, BSPD, GAAFET, SemiAnalysis STEEL
Panther Lake debuts the first commercial implementation of backside power delivery (BSPDN), introduces Intel’s first iteration of gate-all-around (GAA) transistors, and showcases their advanced packaging capabilities with its Foveros-S assembly. With Panther Lake, Intel’s manufacturing arc has shifted from nebulous roadmaps to shipped silicon, a significant milestone on their long road back to competitive semiconductor manufacturing. To evaluate the extent of Intel’s comeback, we tore down Panther Lake. The SemiAnalysis STEEL teardown lab breaks down advanced datacenter and AI hardware. To learn more about our pipeline or to commission a teardown, contact sales@semianalysis.com. WE’RE HIRING: Architecture, floorplan, packaging, manufacturing, and labs experts. Opportunities from system to transistor and everywhere in between. Check out our Careers page. Our teardown traces 18A from its four-sheet RibbonFETs (Intel’s marketing name for GAAFETs) and gate stacks through contacts, frontside and backside wiring, and the bonded carrier. We explain how these material and integration choices improve gate control and reduce resistance, while adding capacitance, thermal resistance, and process complexity. Our measurements put Panther Lake’s 18A compute logic and TSMC N3E GPU logic at similar logic density. However, 18A does not lead TSMC N3P, N2 or Samsung SF2 in peak density. Panther Lake’s CPU cores are incremental updates, and the high-end GPU still uses TSMC N3E. Panther Lake assembles one compute tile, one GPU tile, and one I/O tile atop a passive base tile using Intel’s Foveros-S advanced packaging. Both compute tile variants use Intel 18A. The Xe3 GPU options are a 4-core GT1 tile on Intel 3 and a larger 12-core GT2 tile on TSMC N3E. Both I/O tile variants use TSMC N6. [1], [2] Our analysis centers on the PTL-U compute tile, both the 4-core and 12-core GPU tiles, as well as the 12-lane I/O tile. In conventional chips, power and signal are routed through the same frontside metal stack towards the device frontend. Power rails consume scarce routing resources near the transistors, while tall via stacks carry VDD and VSS from the coarse upper wires to local rails. Backside power delivery (BSPD) moves the main power network behind the transistor layer, to the backside, separating it from frontside signal routing. We covered BSPD and its impacts in 2024. [3], [4], [5] Intel’s BSPD implementation, branded as “PowerVia”, routes power through dedicated backside metals to nano-TSVs, which connect those rails to local source/drain (S/D) contacts. Implementing that separation requires Intel to build the interconnect stacks from both sides of the wafer. The frontside comprises the M0-M14 signal stack, while the backside comprises the BM0-BM5 power stack. M0 and BM0 are closest to the transistors. The nano-TSVs connect the two sides, but Intel patterns and etches each via from the front after forming the contacts. A narrow via runs from the side of the contact deep into the silicon substrate. Intel then completes the frontside signal metal stack, bonds the wafer to a carrier, flips it and removes the original substrate until the buried via tips are exposed. The backside metal stack is then deposited directly on the revealed vias. The nano-TSV and backside-via profiles taper in opposite directions because Intel forms them from opposite sides of the wafer. The transistor structures form the FEOL. Local contacts and nano-TSVs connect them to the wiring. M0 begins the frontside interconnect stack. The silicon carrier remains attached above the frontside interconnects. It supports the device wafer during substrate removal and backside processing and remains part of the finished chip’s thermal path. PowerVia removes the main power distribution from the congested frontside metals, routing supply through shorter and wider backside wires. Its lateral landing still occupies area in the standard cell, so it recovers less cell area than a direct backside contact. [3] Nano-TSVs beside the logic devices carry VDD or VSS from the backside power network, while signal connections continue upward through the frontside metals. Backside Interconnects Samsung SF2 data is included for comparison to Panther Lake’s within this article. SF2 is the incumbent GAA foundry node but lacks BSPD, serving as a useful reference to evaluate 18A. A full teardown of Samsung’s S26 products, processed on SF2, will be shared soon.Nanosheet-cut EDS comparison. The PowerVia supply path runs from the backside Cu rails through Mo-lined W nano-TSVs to the local transistor contacts. In this cross section, the tapered connection spans roughly 150 nm from the contact level to BM0. The Ta liner confines Cu and promotes adhesion to the surrounding stack; the AlOₓ etch stop controls the next dielectric etch above the rail. Dielectric beneath the ribbons electrically separates the devices from the backside wiring and removes the conducting silicon body below the channel. [6] AlOₓ serves as an etchstop (ES), enabling endpointing and protecting the underlying layers. Low-volatility aluminum fluoride reaction products resist the fluorinated plasma, allowing a thin AlOₓ film to protect the metal while the surrounding low-k dielectric is removed. [6], [7]. While the BM0 and layers above the M1 lines show double AlOx layers, Our SMIC N+3 teardown showed single AlOₓ layers. SMIC uses a simpler local AlOₓ substack, while the remaining cap and etch sequence provide the required landing protection. So why double layers? The closely spaced AlOₓ doublets provide two protected endpoints in the etch sequence. Intel documents an AlOₓ/SiN/AlOₓ stack that explains the benefit. The main dielectric plasma etch stops on the first AlOₓ film; a selective wet clear opens that film; a second plasma etch removes the intermediate SiN and stops on the second AlOₓ film. The final wet clear exposes the metal landing surface. SiN is the intermediate dielectric in Intel’s published example. [8] The second stop protects the metal through a cap breakthrough. Wide openings can etch faster than narrow ones, and etch depth varies across the wafer. Metal under an early-clearing opening would otherwise be exposed while other openings still need more etching. Staged protection widens the process window and reduces metal erosion, corrosion and void formation. [8] TSMC documents AlN/AlOₓ/SiOC/AlOₓ above Cu, with AlN blocking Cu diffusion, and a simpler AlN/SiOC/AlOₓ variant that omits one AlOx film. [9] Levels with different opening sizes, aspect ratios, pattern densities and cap materials need different etch margins. A double AlOx stop is useful where another protected endpoint justifies the added processing. The extra film adds formation, selective opening and cleaning steps, plus another set of interfaces to control adhesion, moisture, and stress. These blanket films are opened through the existing via pattern, so each film does not require another lithography mask. AlOₓ adds parasitic capacitance when it replaces lower-k dielectric; two thin AlOₓ films can nevertheless contain less AlOₓ than one thick film. Total thickness, placement, and theintermediate dielectric determine the electrical cost. Deposition chemistry also changes AlOx permittivity and residual hydroxyl content, which can oxidize the underlying metal. [7], [8], [10], [11] The backside stack separates into relatively fine BM0-BM2 wiring near the devices and coarser BM3-BM5 power distribution. The largest pitch increase occurs between BM2 and BM3. BM0’s pitch closely matches the logic-row height, fitting local power delivery to the cell rows. Higher levels aggregate current through larger conductors: routing density becomes less important than low resistance and current capacity as the network approaches the package. This hierarchy provides wide power wiring for the power delivery network without consuming scarce frontside signal-routing resources. [3] The SemiAnalysis STEEL teardown lab breaks down advanced datacenter and AI hardware. To learn more about our pipeline or to commission a teardown, contact sales@semianalysis.com. WE’RE HIRING: Architecture, floorplan, packaging, manufacturing, and labs experts. Opportunities from system to transistor and everywhere in between. Check out our Careers page. Frontside Interconnects Intel 18A combines Mo-lined W contacts and nano-TSVs with a separate backside Cu power network. Samsung SF2 keeps power on the frontside, using Ti-based contact interfaces and Ta-based barriers and Co liners around Cu wiring. In 18A standard-cell rows, backside power rails supply the devices through nano-TSVs within the cells, freeing frontside routing resources. Samsung’s M0 accommodates both power and signal connections. From the device toward M0, the connection runs through a Ti-based S/D interface, W contact fill, a Mo-lined W via, and the Cu M0 wire. Mo supplies a conductive nucleation and adhesion layer for W, replacing the resistive TiN liner used in conventional W integration. This increases the effective conduction volume within the feature while retaining W fill and its established polishing, cleaning and etching processes. Intel’s Mo/W patent describes this integration tradeoff. The nano-TSV uses the same Mo-lined W construction in the backside supply path. [12] The move from TiN to Mo is an incremental change. While a full Co or Mo fill can also reduce the volume lost to liners in very small features, it requires new integration schemes that increase complexity and risk. Cu remains attractive for wider wires due to its low resistance. As wires and vias shrink, the diffusion barrier consumes an increasing fraction of their cross-section. [12], [12], [14] Intel uses Co/Ru liners at M0-M1, Co at M2-M4, and Nb at M5-M9. The lower-level liners help Cu adhere and reduce void formation during trench fills. Applied Materials’ Endura has new thermal control that facilitate wetting process, so the thin film continuity is good enough that good capillary pressure will drive Cu atoms to the via bottom without voiding. Intel’s choice to use Nb is particularly interesting. Intel’s Nb patent describes a conductive diffusion barrier intended to reduce the barrier’s contribution to resistance relative to conventional Ta-based barriers, particularly at via bottoms where all current crosses the barrier. The patent pairs Nb in coarser levels with the option of lower-cost PVD processing. [15], [16] The upper metal layers support thicker barriers formed through physical vapor deposition (PVD) despite its worse coverage and uniformity. Meanwhile, the lower metal layers require thinner barriers deposited through conformal atomic layer deposition (ALD). Co/Ru adds another material interface and requires controlled deposition and Cu fill. Changing liners and barriers by metal layer allows Intel to optimize interconnect resistance, process complexity, and reliability. [15, 16] RibbonFET, Intel’s name for its gate-all-around FETs (GAAFETs), replaces the FinFET’s vertical fins with four stacked horizontal silicon nanosheets, allowing the gate to surround the channel on every side. The path to GAAFET begins with the planar transistor. A planar MOSFET places the gate above the channel between its source and drain. Pairing an NMOS with a PMOS transistor creates a CMOS inverter, in which the NMOS pulls the output low for a high input, and the PMOS pulls it high for a low input. The gate must retain electrostatic control of the channel to ensure clean switching. As gate lengths shrank, the drain began to compete with the gate for that control, increasing off-state leakage. Electrostatic control was restored through an architectural evolution that raised the channel into a vertical fin and wrapping the gate around three sides. Called “FinFET”, this new architecture packed more effective channel width into a smaller footprint. Further scaling made it harder to maintain both drive current and leakage within smaller cells, and reintroduced the same problems planar MOSFETs faced. Nanosheet GAAFETs close the fourth side by replacing the vertical fin with a stack of horizontal nanosheets, each surrounded by the gate. The tighter electrostatic control suppresses leakage at shorter gate lengths while stacking adds effective channel width within the cell footprint. In a FinFET process, channel width changes in discrete steps as designers must add or remove whole fins. Nanosheet width can instead be adjusted continuously within the process’s design rules. Wider sheets increase drive current, while narrower sheets reduce capacitance at the cost of drive current. Intel 18A uses stacks of four nanosheets each and varies their widths across logic and SRAM. At the process level, adding more sheets to each stack increases effective channel width and drive current, but complicates fabrication. RibbonFET vs MBCFET Samsung began GAAFET production in 2022 with SF3E, following with SF3 and now SF2. Its ‘MBCFET’ provides a useful structural comparison with Intel’s first RibbonFET implementation. [17] STEEL is digging deeper into SF2, used in the Exynos 2600, and TSMC’s GAAFET N2, used in Apple’s A20 Pro, in upcoming newsletter articles. We’re throwing some teasers on X. Let’s compare Samsung SF2’s MBCFET with Intel 18A’s RibbonFET. Subscribe Even to the untrained eye, Intel’s extra nanosheet is obvious. Intel stacks four ribbons to Samsung’s three. Samsung’s sheets are much wider in these fields, so both sheet count and width matter to the available channel perimeter. Sheet width also changes which silicon surfaces carry current. On conventional (001) silicon, wide nanosheets emphasize the broad top and bottom surfaces, favoring electron transport; the larger sidewall contribution in a narrow sheet favors hole transport. Thinner sheets improve gate control but increase confinement and scattering. This makes width and thickness part of the NMOS/PMOS balance, alongside strain and threshold voltage. [18], [19] GAAFET designs like 18A use different work-function-metal (WFM) stacks for NMOS and PMOS. Around each ribbon, a thin SiOx interfacial layer separates the silicon channel from the HfOx high-k dielectric, with La providing dipole tuning and the WFM wrapping the dielectric. NMOS uses a TiAl-based stack, while PMOS uses TiN WFM. W fills the remaining gate trench, providing a lower-resistivity path where the work-function layers are no longer needed. In this field, the PMOS stacks leave room for W between ribbons, while the NMOS stacks occupy more of those gaps. A silicon-based dielectric marks the P/N boundary, allowing the PMOS and NMOS gates, sharing the same gate trench, to be processed sequentially. Fast logic paths, retention circuits, and SRAM need a family of threshold options. Changing threshold without substantially changing device dimensions, capacitance or fabrication complexity is valuable. FinFET processes typically use different work-function-metal stacks. In a four-ribbon GAA stack, the narrow sheet-to-sheet gap limits how much WFM can fit around each channel. La in the gate dielectric creates interfacial dipoles at the SiOx/HfOx boundary, shifting effective work function and tuning threshold voltage. This gives Intel another control alongside its NMOS and PMOS WFM stacks. Low-threshold devices improve critical-path drive; higher thresholds reduce leakage elsewhere. Dipole tuning is especially useful in GAA because it changes threshold without consuming the narrow intersheet gap with thicker WFM. Precise control of La incorporation, diffusion and interface quality has long been a challenge, limiting viability in high volume production but is now seen from every leading-edge foundry. Intel’s patent describes depositing a dipole-forming oxide above HfOx and annealing it toward the interfacial oxide before completing the work-function and fill metals. This separates threshold tuning from the space available for metal. Newer research addresses the thermal cost: imec’s 2026 dipole-middle research inserts the shifter between two HfOx depositions, shortening the diffusion path while protecting SiOx during patterning. [20], [21]Matched-cut EDS, Intel 18A (left) vs. Samsung SF2 (right). Intel retains raised source/drain epi beneath its contacts, while Samsung recesses W deep into the epi to form a V-shaped Ti-lined interface. The deeper contact increases metal-to-semiconductor area and shortens the current path from the lower sheets, reducing contact and spreading resistance. It also removes epi volume and brings the contact etch closer to the channel ends. Retaining more epi preserves the material available for strain transfer, especially from SiGe into PMOS. These geometries balance contact access against stress engineering and etch margin. [22], [23] Samsung stacks three sheets to Intel’s four ribbons, and both processes use sheet width to tune drive strength. In our Samsung cross-sections, widths range roughly from 19 to 30 nm in the NPU rows and 37 to 50 nm in the CU cell. The Samsung nanosheets taper, with the widest sheet at the bottom and the narrowest at the top. Both processes use HfOx gate dielectric and Ti-based work-function stacks, with Al in the NMOS stack. In the Samsung devices shown here, the dielectric and WFM occupy the intersheet gaps, leaving W above the top sheet. Intel’s PMOS stack leaves more room between ribbons, and W fills those gaps while the thicker NMOS stack leaves W mainly in the upper trench. Gate-stack EDS maps. The W between Intel’s PMOS ribbons provides a conductive path close to the lower gates. Where WFM fills the entire gap, the gate still surrounds the channel, but voltage reaches it through the more resistive work-function films. Thinner WFM and dipole tuning preserve room for low-resistivity fill; Mo and Ru are alternative fill metals being developed for further scaling. [24] A masked, sequential WFM flow explains the different gate heights and inter-nanosheet fill. The proposed sequence below shows how separate NMOS and PMOS work-function steps produce that geometry. Enabled by the BSPDN process, Intel replaces the dense-logic silicon subfin with dielectric, removing the parasitic conduction path below the ribbons and reducing substrate-related capacitance. A retained silicon body as in classical, non-SOI, planar and FinFET designs needs junction and punchthrough-stop engineering to suppress leakage. Dielectric isolation makes that leakage less sensitive to the subfin doping profile but adds removal and fill steps. It also weakens the direct thermal path through silicon, making the contacts, metal stacks and package more important for heat extraction. [24], [26] Fluorine is concentrated around selected Intel device structures in the maps. WF6 is a standard precursor for W nucleation and fill, while barrier films protect adjacent dielectrics from fluorine attack. Low-fluorine W processes reduce the residual-F burden. Chloride-based precursors avoid introducing F during W deposition, but require control of chlorine attack, nucleation and fill quality. The integration target is a continuous, low-resistance W path with a thin protective liner and minimal chemical damage to the surrounding stack. [20], [27], [28] The SemiAnalysis STEEL teardown lab breaks down advanced datacenter and AI hardware. To learn more about our pipeline or to commission a teardown, contact sales@semianalysis.com. WE’RE HIRING: Architecture, floorplan, packaging, manufacturing, and labs experts. Opportunities from system to transistor and everywhere in between. Check out our Careers page. We measured cell height, gate pitch, metal geometry, and ribbon dimensions at the XTEM sites shown below. The tables group these dimensions by site and device polarity. Our “sheet cuts” cross the silicon channel and show the ribbons end-on. “gate cuts” run along the channel through successive gates. The 18A logic cell dimensions point to a five-track logic library while the N3E and Intel 3 cell dimensions evidence a seven-track logic library. The DDR-PHY uses wider M0 wires and much larger spacing than core logic. That trades routing density for lower wire resistance and weaker coupling between neighboring nets. The geometry suits the current delivery and coupling requirements of analog, clock, and I/O circuitry. PowerVia lets 18A combine a compact cell height with wider M0 geometry by moving the main power rails off the signal-routing tracks. That relaxes local wire scaling while preserving a small cell footprint. Cell height and gate pitch set the geometric density; pin access and routability determine how much of it a real block can use. [29] The biggest takeaway from our gate-pitch measurements is that Intel 18A compute logic and TSMC N3E GPU logic have similar density in the Bohr representative-cell model. The 18A example is 18.6% denser than the Intel 3 GPU example. Gate pitches are nearly identical across the three sites, so cell height drives most of the difference. The Bohr model combines a four-transistor NAND2 spanning three gate pitches and a 32-transistor scan flip-flop (SFF) spanning nineteen pitches, weighting their densities 60:40. The sensitivity column shows how independently changing cell height and gate pitch by ±1 nm changes the result. This compares representative cell geometries; whole-die density also depends on cell mix and placement. The 18A P-core gives M0 substantially more metal cross section than the N3E vector engine. Treating each profile as a trapezoid gives 2.63 times the area per line and 1.84 times the area after normalization by routing pitch. The larger section reduces the geometric contribution to line resistance and lowers current density for a given current. Taller and wider wires also add capacitance, so circuit delay depends on the balance of resistance and capacitance. The DDR-PHY has less metal area per routing width than the 18A core fields, while remaining above N3E. [30] Area = height × (top CD + bottom CD) / 2, including liners. Area/pitch normalizes by routing width. Taper is the symmetric sidewall angle from vertical, with the largest angle belonging to the DDR-PHY. Compute tile The measurements show how ribbon dimensions and gate-stack geometry vary across the compute tile and between NMOS and PMOS to balance channel drive, gate load and the space needed for the dielectric/WFM stack across logic, SRAM and the DDR-PHY. Width mainly changes available channel perimeter; thickness also changes electrostatic control and carrier confinement. Gate-stack thickness then determines the space left for low-resistivity fill P-core and LP E-core logic Both the P-core and LP E-core use multiple nanosheet widths. Widths are measured on high-magnification XTEMs while wider-field images demonstrate additional width choices within the LP E-core. Multiple widths are expected even within an LP E-core. Timing-critical paths, buffers and cells with different fanout need different drive strengths. The lower-magnification fields show this width diversity beyond the sites quantified in the table. L2 and L3 SRAM GAA gives SRAM designers another way to balance the pull-up (PU), pass-gate (PG), and pull-down (PD) transistors. FinFET bitcells set device strength through fin count while GAA adds nanosheet width as a sizing knob. In a 6T SRAM cell, a strong pull-down relative to the pass-gate limits read disturbance, while a strong pass-gate relative to the pull-up improves writability. During a write, the pass-gate and write driver pull the node storing “1” below the inverter trip point. During a read, the pull-down holds the node storing “0” low. Bias, threshold voltage, mismatch and assist circuitry set the remaining margin. FinFET high-current cells commonly use a PU:PG:PD fin-count pattern of 1:2:2, a device-sizing ratio rather than a current ratio. Ribbon width lets Intel balance SRAM strengths without adding whole fins. The L2 cell uses its narrowest ribbons for PU and widest for PD, improving writability and read stability respectively. Intel’s disclosed HCC operates without assist; its denser HDC uses negative-bitline write assist. Pulling the selected bitline briefly below ground increases pass-gate overdrive so it can overpower the pull-up at lower supply voltage. That buys density and low voltage writability at the cost of boosting circuitry, switching energy, and additional voltage stress that must be controlled. [31], [32] Four rectangular ribbons give the perimeter = 8 × (width + thickness), before corner rounding. PG/PU is 1.49 and PD/PG is 1.16. The L3 structures closely resemble L2 in layout and cell height. Fewer L3 nanosheet widths are tabulated because fewer high-magnification images were available. DDR PHY The DDR-PHY trades density for controlled analog behavior and reliable off-chip signaling. It contains drivers, receivers, delay circuits, and calibration logic that set drive strength, sampling time, and voltage margin. Repeated four-sheet devices with similar widths fit the use of regular transistor units for matching and programmable drive. Its wider local wiring provides room for current delivery and separation of sensitive signals, while consuming more area than a dense core-logic grid. The layout serves the memory channel’s electrical requirements as well as digital logic density. [33] The SemiAnalysis STEEL teardown lab breaks down advanced datacenter and AI hardware. To learn more about our pipeline or to commission a teardown, contact sales@semianalysis.com. WE’RE HIRING: Architecture, floorplan, packaging, manufacturing, and labs experts. Opportunities from system to transistor and everywhere in between. Check out our Careers page. Intel 3 GPU devices Vector engine logic Intel 3’s XVE logic uses two-fin PMOS and NMOS devices with power rails in M0. Its cell height and M0 pitch give a seven-track geometry, two tracks more than the 18A logic. One-fin groups also appear among the two-fin devices. Intel 3 L2 SRAM The Intel 3 L2 SRAM uses the familiar HCC sizing pattern: one PU fin, two PG fins, and two PD fins. N3E GPU devices Vector engine logic The N3E XVE field contains repeated two-fin devices with seven-track cell geometry. N3E remains a FinFET process, giving Panther Lake a direct FinFET-to-RibbonFET comparison. N3E L2 SRAM The N3E L2 SRAM uses the same PU:PG:PD fin-count pattern of 1:2:2. Panther Lake-U follows Lunar Lake’s floorplan quite closely. Both pair 4 P-cores with 4 LP E-cores and NPU, media and display engines in similar locations. Lunar Lake also uses Xe2, the direct predecessor to Panther Lake’s Xe3 GPU. This makes Lunar Lake the most direct basis for our comparisons. Arrow Lake differs in core count and uses the older Xe-LPG GPU architecture, so we only use it where it offers a more direct component-level comparison. Compute tile Panther Lake compute-tile floorplans remain sparse even months after launch. Intel 18A’s backside metal and dielectric stack must be removed without damaging the underlying structures before a clean transistor-level floorplan can be imaged. Most published die shots hide or heavily process the background, but we are quite proud of the die shot we achieved and are excited to show the work we have done. We measured the areas of the key components on the compute tile and compared them with their Lunar Lake predecessors on TSMC N3B. These help us to capture changes in block area and compare the two chips across process nodes and designs. Our total tile areas exclude the scribe-line area. The compute-plus-GPU subtotal below uses the PTL-U compute tile and GT1 GPU; it excludes the I/O tile and passive base. Individual block areas use the boundaries marked on the floorplans The compute-plus-GPU row is recomputed from the displayed PTL-U and GT1 areas. Component rows use their stated per-region counts and are not an additive partition of the whole tile. The P-core area remains almost unchanged between Lunar Lake and Panther Lake, despite L2 capacity increasing from 2.5 MiB to 3 MiB. Arrow Lake uses the same Lion Cove core as Lunar Lake but also has a 3 MiB L2. Cougar Cove fits 20% more L2 into the same P-core area. The larger private cache keeps more of each core’s working set close to its execution units, reducing access to shared L3 and DRAM. Extra capacity adds storage leakage and lookup energy, so designers balance it against avoided lower-level accesses. The shared P-core L3 cache also shrank by 14.8%. [2] Cougar Cove combines a similar footprint with Intel’s reported power-efficiency improvements. RibbonFET’s tighter channel control reduces leakage, while PowerVia reduces supply droop and allows tighter voltage guardbands. [1] Darkmont’s four-core LP E-core cluster is 5.0% smaller than Skymont’s on Lunar Lake, with most of the reduction in its L2 regions. The 1 MiB region shrank by 8.4% and the 1.5 MiB region by 14.9%. The tag arrays also use one fewer visible row. Tags identify which memory addresses the data array holds, so rearranging them changes the cache’s layout and wiring without requiring less data capacity. [2] The LP E-cores share one L2. This pools capacity and avoids duplicating all the cache machinery, but the four cores contend for its banks and bandwidth. Their separate cluster also keeps light work away from the performance cluster and its L3, allowing that larger domain to sleep. [1], [2] Cache area includes more than the storage cells. Tags identify each line, decoders select rows, sense amplifiers read the small bitline signal, and wires connect to the banks. Splitting an array into smaller sections shortens wordlines and bitlines, improving access speed, but duplicates peripheral circuits. Panther Lake’s smaller cache regions therefore reflect the complete memory implementation, including how much of each region is devoted to storage. [34] Unlike Meteor Lake and Arrow Lake, Panther Lake has no separate SoC tile. The NPU, LP E-cores, memory controllers, PHYs, media and display engines now share the compute tile. This removes an active die and keeps CPU memory traffic on one die. The cost is moving PHY and I/O-related circuitry onto 18A: drivers, receivers and analog circuits must still meet external voltage, loading and signal-integrity requirements, so their area does not shrink like dense digital logic. [1], [2] The biggest shrink comes from the NPU, which occupies 36.9% less area. NPU 5 consolidates the same total INT8 MAC count into half as many neural compute engines. Each of the three NCEs has a larger MAC array to make the complete NCE envelope 22.6% larger than an NPU 4 engine. Consolidation also halves the number of scratchpads and SHAVE DSPs, from 12 to 6. The MAC array handles matrix multiplication and convolution, while SHAVE executes vector and custom operations that fit the array poorly. [1], [2], [35] The paired floorplans identify each NCE envelope and its scratchpad, MAC, and SHAVE regions. Each measured MAC polygon is counted once per NCE in the area accounting below. The scratchpads store weights, activations, and intermediate results near the MAC arrays, allowing repeated use without fetching them again from DRAM. Halving their number delivers the largest measured area saving but leaves less local storage for the same total MAC count. Layers that no longer fit locally require smaller working tiles or more transfers of intermediate data. The benefit depends on keeping the enlarged arrays busy while managing that tighter storage budget. [36] NPU 5 also adds native FP8. Using half the operand width of FP16 reduces storage and transfer demand, helping workloads fit the smaller local memory budget. Lower precision and format-dependent range make scaling and model validation part of deployment. Hardware activation functions further reduce work that would otherwise occupy the programmable DSPs. [1], [2] Microsoft requires an NPU to deliver at least 40 TOPS for Copilot+ PCs. Both Lunar Lake and Panther Lake meet this threshold, but Panther Lake uses significantly less silicon. GPU tiles Panther Lake is Intel’s first product with Xe3, its latest GPU architecture. It offers two different GPU tiles: a smaller GT1 tile with 4 Xe3 cores on Intel 3 and a larger GT2 tile with 12 Xe3 cores on TSMC N3E. Panther Lake allows us to compare the same GPU architecture across both Intel 3 and TSMC N3E. Wildcat Lake adds a third Xe3 implementation on Intel 18A. A future newsletter will detail Xe3 and its implementation differences across all three process nodes. GT2 scales Xe3 to a different physical layout, with render slices arranged vertically instead of GT1’s horizontal arrangement. Slice placement sets the distances to shared cache banks and the D2D interface. Those wires consume area and add delay, so scaling the number of Xe cores also requires a new balance of cache placement, routing and timing. [1] What’s immediately obvious is that the GT2 tile on TSMC N3E has much smaller Xe cores than GT1. These block areas include logic, caches, and routing. An Xe core on the GT1 tile is ~69% larger than one on Lunar Lake, and ~55% larger than one on GT2. Intel 3 therefore uses substantially more area per Xe core. The block-area gap exceeds the measured logic and SRAM density gaps, bringing routing, timing targets, cell mix, and floorplan allocation into the comparison. The measured vector/matrix engine region is almost unchanged between Lunar Lake and Panther Lake’s GT2 tile. Xe3 retains eight 512-bit vector engines and eight 2048-bit XMX engines per core. Its gains also come from feeding those engines more effectively: more resident threads hide stalls, and variable register allocation lets shaders trade registers per thread against the number of threads kept active. [1] The shared L1/SLM capacity increased by 33% from 192 KiB to 256 KiB, while its area increased only 5%, raising effective density by 27%. L1 retains reused cache lines, while software-managed SLM lets a thread group share data locally. Both reduce traffic to more distant memory. Allocating more SLM per group can also limit how many groups reside on a core at once. [1], [37] The GT1 tile carries 4 MiB of L2 against 16 MiB on the GT2 tile. GT1 divides its L2 cache into four 1 MiB banks, while GT2 uses eight 2 MiB banks. Each bank contains 128 macros, but each N3E macro stores 16 KiB, twice the Intel 3 macro’s 8 KiB capacity. The N3E macro is only 54% larger while holding twice as many bits, giving it 30% higher density: ~23.7 Mbit/mm² versus 18.3 Mbit/mm². Including bank-level circuitry, the gap widens to ~16.9 Mbit/mm² on GT2 versus ~10.4 Mbit/mm² on GT1. GT2 gains density with its macros storing more bits per unit area, and those macros occupy more of each cache bank. Larger macros spread decoder and sense-amplifier overhead across more storage, while a more compact bank layout reduces the share spent on control and routing. The compromise is longer wordlines and bitlines that carry more capacitance. [34] I/O tile Panther Lake uses two I/O tile variants, both fabricated on TSMC N6. The smaller one provides 4 PCIe 5.0 and 8 PCIe 4.0 lanes and serves lower-tier systems as well as those without a discrete GPU, while the larger one adds 8 PCIe 5.0 lanes, bringing the total to 20 lanes, for discrete-GPU connectivity. Panther Lake SKUs with the larger 10- or 12-Xe GPUs use the smaller I/O tile. [38] The smaller I/O tile adds a PCIe 4.0 block and a Thunderbolt block to Lunar Lake’s I/O layout, providing four additional PCIe 4.0 lanes and another Thunderbolt 4 port. Its repeated N6 blocks retain nearly identical areas and layouts. Reusing these proven PHYs and controllers avoids porting and requalifying external interfaces on 18A, where faster digital logic offers less benefit to circuits constrained by the off-chip link. [38] SemiAnalysis’s teardown lab (STEEL) dives deep into the world’s advanced datacenter and AI hardware. To learn more about our pipeline or to commission a teardown, contact sales@semianalysis.com. We’re hiring technical experts from system to transistor and everywhere in between. Check out our Careers page. Panther Lake offers scalability and modularity through its disaggregated packaging that partition compute, GPU, and I/O silicon into separate tiles allowing for a suite of tile configurations. This partitioning makes the package part of Intel’s node economics as it determines how much leading-edge wafer area each product consumes, which functions can remain on other processes, and how much configuration freedom Intel can offer from a shared set of tiles. Furthermore, fabricating the compute and GPU tiles separately confines the new 18A process to the compute tile and allows graphics and I/O to use other, more established, and more cost-effective processes. For Panther Lake, the GPU and I/O tiles are assembled alongside the compute tile on a passive silicon base using Foveros-S. Intel’s current technology brief lists a nominal 36 µm pitch for Foveros-S. Through-silicon vias (TSVs) in the base connect the fine wiring above to the larger package connections below. The functional tiles sit side by side on that passive base in a 2.5D configuration. [39] Our cross-section through the compute and GPU tiles shows the package’s wiring hierarchy. Microbumps connect each active tile to the passive silicon base; its fine redistribution layer (RDL) carries the short, dense tile-to-tile links. TSVs carry connections through the base to the package substrate, which fans them out to the much coarser motherboard solder joints. The base supplies interconnect, while computation remains in the active tiles above it. [39] At the compute-tile edge, the higher-magnification inset shows a local microbump spacing of approximately 25.24 µm and a feature width of 12.33 µm. These local spacings are finer than Intel’s nominal Foveros-S value. The X-ray fields further confirm tighter neighboring bumps, consistent across every die-to-die area found on each tile. Additional X-ray analysis is offered after the paywall. Putting the memory controller beside the CPU removes the D2D transfer that CPU memory requests required in Meteor Lake and Arrow Lake. This avoids the extra transmitter, receiver, and link traversal, saving interface energy and latency. Panther Lake’s separate GPU still crosses a D2D link to reach DRAM, so its larger local caches also help contain package traffic. [1], [40] Smaller dies are less likely to contain a random fatal defect, and screening them before assembly prevents one bad tile from consuming a complete package of good silicon. Reuse also spreads design and qualification work across more products. Against those gains, Intel pays for the passive base, D2D circuits, extra bonding and test steps, and losses during assembly. Cost per working product across the portfolio captures the combined effect of wafer yield, reuse, test, and assembly. [29] Wildcat Lake packaging Intel launched Core Series 3, formerly Wildcat Lake, on 16 April 2026 for value mobile and edge systems. Wildcat Lake keeps 18A but removes the passive base and combines more functions on one die to simplify the package. The two products therefore reveal two distinct ways to commercialize the same leading-edge process. [41] Wildcat Lake’s 18A die combines up to two Cougar Cove P-cores, four Darkmont LP E-cores, two Xe3 cores and a smaller NPU. A separate platform-controller die supplies I/O, connected through UCIe, Intel’s first processor implementation of the standard. Consolidating graphics remove a tile boundary and the passive base, reducing assembly complexity for a modest-bandwidth value product. It also ties CPU and graphics scaling to the same die, giving up Panther Lake’s ability to swap in a much larger GPU. [42], [43] In July 2021, Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger set out an ambitious process roadmap aimed at regaining performance leadership by 2025, later described as five nodes in four years. Five years and one CEO later, Intel’s comeback story is not as unambiguously positive as Pat may have hoped. [44], [45] Intel once set the pace for process technology, bringing high-k metal gate technology and FinFETs into volume production years ahead of the rest of the industry. Its 22 nm FinFET process reached consumers with Ivy Bridge in 2012. [46] Intel’s integrated device manufacturing (IDM) model allowed its architects and process engineers to co-optimize products and processes. Starting with Sandy Bridge, Intel dominated x86, while AMD struggled with Bulldozer. That lead faltered at 14 nm and broke at 10 nm. Intel targeted a massive 2.7× density increase, but the node arrived years late and required several revisions before it could support Intel’s full lineup. This delay forced Intel to stretch 14 nm across six generations, while TSMC moved ahead in process technology and AMD recovered in x86. By 2019, Intel was still shipping 14 nm across most of its product stack, with its 10 nm client ramp focused on Ice Lake mobile processors. Meanwhile, TSMC was shipping N7 and N7+, and AMD’s Zen 2 compute chiplets used N7 to raise core counts and improve efficiency. Intel’s process failures were central to its decline, but unsound business decisions furthered their downward slide. Product delays compounded product mistakes, pushing client, server, and FPGA roadmaps off schedule. Several attempts to enter AI (Nervana and Gaudi) and networking (Tofino) also failed to establish lasting businesses. Intel’s recovery has focused on consumer CPUs and advanced packaging. Tiger Lake, Alder Lake, Lunar Lake and now Panther Lake have restored Intel’s consumer roadmap. On the process side, Intel 4 shipped with Meteor Lake, Intel 3 with Granite Rapids and Sierra Forest, and Intel 18A with Panther Lake. Intel has also made advanced packaging part of its foundry offering. However, Intel is still playing catch-up in servers. Several Xeon generations arrived years late and trailed contemporary AMD and Arm server CPUs in performance, efficiency, and core count. The process roadmap is back, but Intel does not hold the same process-technology leadership position it held prior to 10 nm. The introduction of gate-all-around nanosheets and backside power delivery are two of the biggest changes to transistor integration in a decade. Intel took on both changes at once: 18A paired its first RibbonFET with PowerVia in Panther Lake. Panther Lake is a substantial manufacturing milestone. Our cross-sections show how RibbonFET and PowerVia reshape local contacts and wiring, while the floorplans show where architectural consolidation and process choices save area. A sustained competitive lead depends on product performance, cost, yield, and the next implementation. The SemiAnalysis STEEL teardown lab breaks down advanced datacenter and AI hardware. To learn more about our pipeline or to commission a teardown, contact sales@semianalysis.com. WE’RE HIRING: Architecture, floorplan, packaging, manufacturing, and labs experts. Opportunities from system to transistor and everywhere in between. Check out our Careers page.. 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Jays Edge Reds 6-5
For most of the night, this looked like a typically frustrating 2026 Blue Jays loss. The starting pitching wasn’t very good, the bullpen did enough to keep them in range, and while the offence produce traffic on the bases it failed to turn that into runs. Luckily, things flipped late. The offence woke up and […]
ProTributeBands.com Clarifies Direct Booking Model for Corporate Event Entertainment Planners
SAN RAMON, CA - September 25, 2026 - PRESSADVANTAGE -ProTributeBands.com, the curated booking and lead generation platform for high-end tribute bands, has outlined how its direct-booking structure works for event planners seeking corporate event entertainment. Under the model, bands featured on the platform negotiate terms and close each booking directly with the client, while ProTributeBands follows up to keep the transaction moving smoothly.The structure separates ProTributeBands.com from traditional booking agencies that insert themselves into every contract. Rather than acting as an intermediary that controls the final agreement, the platform connects event planners, performing arts centers, festivals, wedding clients, and private party hosts with pre-screened, national-act-caliber tribute acts, then steps back so the parties can settle details themselves. The platform maintains contact with both sides to ensure momentum is not lost during the process.Founded by David Victor, former guitarist and co-lead vocalist of the multiplatinum band BOSTON, ProTributeBands.com features tribute acts covering artists such as Queen, The Beatles, ABBA, Journey, The Eagles, and Pink Floyd. Selected bands receive optimized profile pages and booking leads generated through the platform."Event planners often assume a booking platform means another layer of negotiation and markup," said David Victor, Founder of ProTributeBands.com. "The approach here is different. The bands negotiate terms and close each booking directly, which keeps the conversation honest and the details accurate. The platform stays involved by following up so nothing stalls between the first inquiry and the signed agreement."The direct-booking method reflects how corporate and private event planning typically operates. Planners frequently need to confirm technical requirements, stage dimensions, scheduling, and performance specifics with the people who will actually be on stage. By allowing those conversations to happen between the client and the band, the model aims to reduce miscommunication that can occur when information passes through a third party.ProTributeBands.com applies a screening process before an act appears on the platform, focusing on production quality, musicianship, and readiness for larger venues. The company ranks tribute bands across categories including Queen, The Beatles, The Eagles, Journey, Pink Floyd, and BOSTON tributes, drawing on performance quality and audience response.The ProTributeBands guide to hiring a tribute band offers additional context for planners weighing these decisions, covering topics such as understanding the audience and event, assessing entertainment value, viewing an act in person before hiring, and reviewing rider and insurance requirements. The guide addresses the practical considerations planners face when selecting an act for a corporate function, festival, or private celebration."A tribute production for a corporate audience has to hold the room the same way a headline act would," Victor said. "The vetting exists so planners can trust that the act they see listed can deliver at that level, and the direct-booking structure lets them confirm every detail with the band before committing."ProTributeBands.com serves clients across the United States and abroad, working with tribute acts that perform at performing arts centers, summer concert series, product launches, corporate parties, private parties, and wedding receptions. The platform also accepts artist submissions from tribute bands seeking consideration for inclusion. The company operates online at protributebands.com.###For more information about ProTributeBands.com, contact the company here:ProTributeBands.comDavid Victor(925) 236-0217hello@protributebands.com11040 Bollinger Canyon Road Suite E-938, San Ramon, CA 94582
Scientists Reveal the Shocking Body Temperature That Kept T. rex Alive - Futura-Sciences
Breaking Free from the Cold-Blooded Stereotype For decades, dinosaurs have been compared to the reptiles and lizards we know today. People saw them as typical “cold-blooded” creatures—scientifically called ectotherms—whose body temperature depended almost entirely on the environment. That’s why you see lizards basking in the sun or hiding in the...
Unique mural painted on Mount Vernon real estate business building
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US government foots bill for television advertisement featuring Trump's midterm messaging
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Hands-on science can be cool
After spending many long days conducting experiments to find a new way to combat bacterial infections in crops, Misha Hegde and Mia Soleil Maurer have been rewarded with international recognition and access to top research facilities. But these are not typical scientists. They are 16-year-old German high school students.“Our supervisor told us that in order to start a project, you need to begin with either a question or a problem,” says Misha, adding that she and Mia had read about antibiotic resistance in certain plants being treated for bacterial infections. “We found out that antibiotics overuse is very common in agriculture,” explains Mia. “Our aim was to create an alternative to antibiotics and to try to raise awareness of the problem of overusing antibiotics.”Their subsequent research has focused on harnessing bacteriophages, the natural predators of bacteria, to eliminate pathogens threatening food crops treated with antibiotics. At the Schuldorf Bergstraße Jugend forscht MakerLab in Seeheim-Jugenheim, located in the German state of Hesse, they discovered a novel phage that infects the Rhizobium rhizogenes bacterium, which causes the hairy root disease that can reduce yields of tomatoes, carrots, soya beans and other food staples.The students believe their method could curb antibiotic use, while protecting plants from infections without disturbing the natural soil microbiome. “The application of phages is host-specific, so they would only kill the targeted pathogen or disease-causing bacteria,” explains Mia. It may also offer environmental benefits, since applying antibiotics can contaminate groundwater.Getting to this point has not been easy. The childhood friends admit to feeling frustrated when their trials did not yield the expected results. “We spent six months on our first experiment, just doing the same thing over and over and over again, to the point where we thought, is it even worth it? Why are we doing this?” Misha says. “You just need to be brave enough to take that first step and keep going.”The benefits of inquiry-based learningTheir determination has paid off. In 2025, the pair won first prize in biology at Jugend forscht, Germany’s national competition for young people interested in science, technology, engineering and mathematics. They were also among the winners of the German Research Foundation Europa-Preis, which is awarded to selected national winners at Jugend forscht, and took third place in the 2025 European Union Contest for Young Scientists.The Jugend forscht Foundation opens doors for young people to connect with scientists as well as industry professionals. Jessica Bönsch, executive director of the Foundation, sees Misha and Mia as prime examples of how young people can develop a deeper understanding of science through their own research projects. “The experience of working on your own research question is very important,” she explains, adding that “inquiry-based learning engages with real-life problems in a way that can be more motivating than traditional classroom teaching.”The Jugend forscht Foundation offers financial support through sponsor pools in Germany’s federal states. Some projects are developed in cooperation with student research centres, university labs or informal collaborative learning areas called makerspaces. Other activities start as hands-on “garage projects” and can grow within the Jugend forscht network and infrastructure.The Jugend forscht Foundation is also a partner of Science Comes to Town, an EU initiative to strengthen public awareness about science and create bridges between researchers and communities. The EU-financed project involves universities, research institutions and other stakeholders in three host cities — Brest (France), Kiel (Germany) and Split (Croatia).“It's so important for people not to live in a bubble, because I think science can be very scary if you misunderstand it,” Mia says of SCTT. The initiative’s aim of raising awareness about science is “absolutely amazing,” Misha adds. “I think it's the best way to kind of make science digestible for the public. In a world where misinformation in science is getting more radical, more dangerous, becoming more of a threat to the trust in scientific infrastructure and foundations, we need such programmes.”Misha and Mia also believe that SCTT can help break down gender stereotypes in science by encouraging young women to study and pursue careers in scientific fields. Both students have benefited from female mentors and encouragement they had when they were much younger. Mia’s love of science began with a class trip to a lab, while Misha — with a smile on her face — says she wanted to study history until “a teacher kind of coerced me into joining a school science club.”Recognition beyond EuropeIn May, Misha and Mia were among the finalists at the Regeneron International Science and Engineering Fair held in Phoenix, Arizona, and involving nearly 1,700 pre-university students from over 60 countries. “It was very crazy because there were so many people and so many teenagers interested in science,” Mia recalls. The event was also challenging. “It was eight hours of continuously presenting your project,” adds Misha.Attending the fair was a chance for the young women to see first-hand the value of international collaboration as well as how research cultures differ. “America is a bit more willing to take risks, and I think that's something we can learn about here in Europe,” Misha explains. However, she continues, “I think Europe has the talent, has the innovation and has the resources” to be competitive.Misha and Mia plan to continue their phage experiments in the new school year, inspired by the project’s hands-on nature and the support they receive from their supervisors. They have also attracted the interest of professional scientists and received invitations to leading research facilities, including the Centre for Synthetic Microbiology, jointly run by the University of Marburg and the Max Planck Institute for Terrestrial Microbiology in Germany. “It is so cool that we can do something to try to move the world in our school and at this age,” Mia says.After completing secondary school, Mia plans to study microbiology and pursue a career in medical research, focusing on Ebola and other infectious diseases. “This has been my dream for so long,” she says. Her friend Misha is interested in biological research with a focus on medicine. “I've gotten addicted to the process of going to the lab, planning out experiments, then failing, trying again,” Misha says. “I think there's just so much to be discovered, so much to be done.”The students' names and photos were published with the permission of their parents.Science|Business, which connects policymakers, academics and industry through its news reporting, analysis and events, is an SCTT partner.
Trump gives Xi Jinping rare airport welcome as summit visit begins
Trump greeted Xi on the tarmac, an unusual gesture that president's don't typically extend to foreign heads of state, underscoring his desire to court the Chinese leader.
Trump SBA to Extend Comment Period After Ranking Member Markey Leads Effort to Rescind SBA Policy that Reclassifies Billion-Dollar Businesses as “Small Businesses”
Trump admin policy would reclassify 114,000 larger businesses as “small” to access small business resources and win federal contracts meant for small businesses Letter (PDF) (Washington, September 23) – This week, the Small Business Administration (SBA) announced its plans to extend the deadline to submit comments on its controversial proposed rule regarding small business size standards until November 20. The Trump SBA’s announcement came shortly after Ranking Member Edward J. Markey (D-Mass.), alongside 12 of his Senate colleagues, sent a letter to Administrator Kelly Loeffler demanding that the Trump SBA rescind a harmful policy that would dramatically redefine what a small business is. The Administration’s proposed policy would change the small business size standard to designate 114,000 larger companies some with annual revenue above $1 billion—as small businesses, giving these businesses access to small business resources and federal contracts typically set aside for actual small businesses. In the letter, Ranking Member Markey and the lawmakers emphasized that small businesses will be shut out of the federal contracting space as government agencies award contracts to larger businesses, causing small businesses to lose revenue, lay off workers, or close their businesses entirely. “For more than 70 years, SBA’s mission has been clear: promote and protect the interests and viability of small businesses. By proceeding with this proposed methodology and rule, SBA moves further away from its mission of facilitating healthy small business participation in the U.S. economy. We urge SBA to rescind these proposals, meet in earnest with small businesses across the country, and discuss the proposal and methodology with congressional committees of jurisdiction. SBA must be committed to developing measured increases to the size standards that do not reward large, billion-dollar companies but instead helps our small businesses survive, grow, and thrive.” The lawmakers highlighted the following points in their letter: Under the Trump SBA’s new size standards, the highest receipts-based standard would exceed $1 billion in annual revenue—more than 20 times the current $47 million maximum—and the highest employee-based standard would reach 3,600 employees—more than twice the current 1,500 employee maximum. Specific increases include an increase in size of nearly 492% for banks, 1,500% for law firms, and more than 2,051% for private equity firms. Of the 114,000 businesses that would be newly classified as small, more than 37,000 of these businesses have collectively won more than 100,000 federal contracts worth approximately $71 billion in Fiscal Year 2025 alone without a small business designation. If SBA included the awards won by these 37,000 businesses in its Fiscal Year 2025 analysis, small business contracts would have accounted for 38% of all federal contracts, instead of the 27% that SBA announced this summer. The letter was co-signed by Senators Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii), Angela Alsobrooks (D-Md.), Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), Christopher Coons (D-Dela.), Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.), Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Tim Kaine (D-Va.), Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii), Mark Warner (D-Va.), and Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.). Ranking Member Markey is fighting to protect small businesses in Massachusetts and across the country from the Trump SBA’s harmful policies that put big businesses and billionaires over American small businesses, workers, and families. In August, Ranking Member Markey slammed the Trump SBA’s proposal to overhaul its small business size standards to benefit big businesses over small businesses. In July, Ranking Member Markey and House Small Business Committee Ranking Member Nydia M. Velázquez (D-NY-7) introduced a Congressional Review Act (CRA) resolution to rescind the Trump administration’s policy that bans green card holders from accessing essential Small Business Administration (SBA) loans to start and grow their businesses. Also in July, Ranking Member Markey and Senator Hirono submitted a comment letter to the Small Business Administration (SBA) opposing a proposed rule change by Trump’s SBA to the 8(a) Business Development Program that would harm underserved small business owners and entrepreneurs. In June, Ranking Member Markey released a new report highlighting Trump’s drastic reduction in federal contracting dollars awarded to American small businesses. ###
Rare country performance set for MTV VMAs as show reveals Dolly Parton tribute led by huge genre star
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Look up 100 top-paid employees at nonprofit health systems in the Philadelphia region in 2024
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The Big Holes in Wearable Heart Rate Variability And Readiness Scores
On September 9th, Apple announced it was revamping its Apple Watch Health Sensing System, rolling out a Readiness score (0 to 10), and increasing the frequency of heart rate variability (HRV) outputs 24-fold. This can be viewed as upping its competition with various other consumer wearable sensors. These “readiness scores” as a composite of multiple metrics, with heart rate variability (HRV) being front and center for most. The majority of Americans are now using wearable sensors, which equates to well over 100 million adults. HRV and Readiness scores are increasingly being marketed as a measurement of autonomic nervous system health, a digital marker for future disease, a clock for biological age, and a holistic metric to promote healthspan and even longevity. (Apple also introduced a new longevity tab and “Health Age”.) None of this has been proven. In this edition of Ground Truths I am going to review what we know about heart rate variability and readiness scores. Heart Rate Variability HRV is the variation in normal heart cycle timing. The variability of the heart rate, the barely perceptible millisecond changes in time between consecutive heart beats (see R-R intervals in the Figure below, left panel), is due to interplay between the sympathetic and parasympathetic (vagal nerve) inputs. Distinct from heart rate, individuals with the same heart rate can have very different HRVs. It is a rough reflection of the autonomic nervous system (ANS) activity, inadequate to say whether a person’s ANS function is abnormal. For more than three decades, heart rate variability (HRV) has been measured and several studies have found an association of low HRV and clinical outcomes, particularly a link with higher all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. There have also been less well established links of low HRV to risk of early cognitive impairment, dementia, mental illness, Type 2 diabetes and substance abuse. An important reminder is that HRV is a surrogate marker without any established cause-and-effect relationship. If you increase your HRV, that doesn’t mean it will improve health outcomes. In fact, there is no hard evidence for that. All that work linking to health outcomes was done with electrocardiogram (ECG) derived HRV. Now, in the era of consumer wearables, this is getting assessed differently, by optical pulse (yes, the lights you see) plethysmography (PPG) or what is called pulse rate variability (PRV). They are not the same, as shown below (right panel) and only concordant when the delay between the ECG and pulse is kept constant, which basically means at rest. I should mention there’s also what I will call MPV, a mattress mechanical movement sensor, a derived heart rate variability, that companies like Eight Sleep use, even further away from directly measuring HRV. HRV has not one uniform measurement but many different types of quantification, such as RMSSD, the magnitude of difference between successive R-R intervals of normal sinus beats (N-N) or SDNN, the standard deviation of NN intervals, both in milliseconds. SDNN is one of the so-called frequency domain HRVs (others are LF, HF, LF/HF). Different wearable sensors use different metics; Apple has relied on SDNN and nearly all of the others use RMSSD, which is generally considered the more accurate metric. There’s also the different length of time measured, such as for a matter of minutes, all day, or an overnight’s sleep. Short measurements are especially problematic since they don’t capture enough of respiratory modulation and other factors that influence HRV. Share Ground Truths How well does HRV correlate with PRV? There are very limited studies, especially independently done. One that is commonly cited was conducted by Air Force researchers in only 13 healthy adults assessing Oura ring 3 and 4, Whoop 4.0, and Garmin Fenix 6 and showed a correlation coefficient of 0.88 to 0.97 and a mean absolute percentage error from 6 to 10%. The correlation is not a perfect 1.0, but there’s at least a fairly high level of correlation. HRV is supposed to increase during the night due to takeover of the parasympathetic nervous system, and higher during deep sleep. A recent example of my 1 week, all day “HRV,” and one during sleep is shown below. As you can see, the N of 1 data are inconsistent for the same days from different sensors (Oura, AppleWatch, Fitbit Air, and Eight Sleep) by patterns, absolute numbers, and comparison with prior days and weeks. The largest study in over 8 million Fitbit users (the old version, not Google Fitbit Air, introduced in May 2026) gives you a sense of the effect of age, sex, and the 2 different main HRV (here PRV) metrics, with RMSSD on the left and SDRR (=SDNN) on the right below. That study, from data collected in 2018, is a major outlier, since all the more recent ones are tiny with respect to sample size. Many of the companies have not had independent evaluation of their HRV, such as Eight Sleep, but have published a low standard error on their website. There are some other published studies on the correlation between HRV and PRV, but they are all small and only in healthy adults. A scoping review emphasized the lack of study in underrepresented individuals, including the aged, people of color (which affects the PPG signal), and individuals who are underweight or obese. Add the typical adult age 60 plus with one or more chronic diseases. For example, one study in over 900 adults found poor correlation of HRV and PRV, non-uniformly underestimated across many chronic diseases (cardiovascular, endocrine, neurological, respiratory, and others), concluding PRV is “an invalid surrogate for HRV.” A recent systematic review of 43 studies comparing HRV and PRV found reasonable pooled absolute standardized error (HRV as gold standard) but only 10 of the studies provided quantitative synthesis in ideal conditions. Their main conclusion was similarly cautious: “PPG-derived HRV [PRV] should not be regarded as universally interchangeable with ECG-derived HRV across all devices, populations, and recording contexts.” Factors Affecting HRV and PRV That gets me to the long list of factors that affect HRV (and PRV) besides the device, the type of measurement (RMSSD, SDNN or others), the person’s signal, the sensor site, the duration of data capture, if weighting by sleep stage is used, how artifact is processed and corrected. And this list is not complete!: Oura puts out data from their community of users (who input data) on what affects their overnight HRV. The factors currently provided are: no alcohol (increase 8%), melatonin (increase 2%, float tank (increase 2%), wine (decrease 4%), and party (decrease 14%) in overnight HRV. Must be some big parties! Subscribe What is a PRV measurement good for? It has been falsely characterized as an index of “autonomic balance” and a specific indicator of stress. A 2018 review of the studies available for HRV and its relationship to stress, not using any of the current wearables, found that stress can lower HRV. But so can many other factors. The non-specificity of the signal, indexed to the table above, is striking. Evidence from a UK Biobank study of over 46,000 participants with actual HRV looked at genetically predicted HRV, a genetic risk score, that failed to show the expected HRV-mortality link, indicating that _HRV is likely not causa_l, but rather a reflection of person’s physiologic state. A review of consumer wearable HRV data from 5 longitudinal studies showed that nighttime PRV was not associated with perceived stress, and surprisingly higher HRV, in the largest cohort (N=717 participants), was correlated with higher stress. An Oura ring cohort of 525 first-year college students found a link between overnight PRV and perceived stress, but that was also seen with resting heart rate, sleep, and respiratory rate. Several very small studies have examined the relationship of HRV and athletic injuries or guiding training with mixed, and predominantly negative results. HRV biofeedback training with paced breathing had no significant effect on reducing stress or raising HRV, as demonstrated with sham controlled trials. When HRV for multiple days showed a decline in conjunction with body temperature, the Oura ring published data for prediction of Covid. The WHOOP company sponsored an observational study, published in 2026, of 30,000 users for 72 weeks, without a control group, that reported reduced alcohol intake (5.8 % points) by self-report. That doesn’t tell us much, and particularly about the merits of HRV for behavioral change. If you use the same device and conditions as longitudinal trends for multiple (at least 2-3) weeks that may be the one way to get something useful from the measurements. Data for overnight sleep with minimal motion and using RMSSD is the best proxy for real HRV. The reason to look at trends rather than any given night is that it more likely represents something, even though you won’t know with certainty what the “it” is. Keep in mind there are no data, no peer-reviewed evidence, to show that HRV fluctuation in-person has any correlation with health outcomes. Share Readiness Scores These are proprietary scores that integrate different metrics for each of the wearables: no algorithms have been disclosed. They are unvalidated against health outcomes. In a review of 14 composite health scores of readiness and recovery, HRV contributed 86% to the scores, followed by reading heart rate (79%), physical activity and sleep duration (both at 71%). That review noted the substantial variability in measurement protools and lack of standardization. Sleep staging is notoriously inconsistent and inaccurate by these sensors, which adds further to the HRV uncertainties for what the scores, which use sleep stage data, mean. Only resting heart rate has been shown consistently across devices to be extremely accurate. I’ve made a Table to summarize what we know about which metrics are included, the scores, any peer-reviewed studies that compared the readiness score with health outcomes, and the corresponding (if any, NA-not available) citation. You will note that some companies do not use the term “readiness," such as WHOOP for recovery, and Garmin, which has 2 different scores, one of which is Body Battery. Eight Sleep uses the term “Fitness Score.” They all include HRV; Apple includes a new metric they call “Recovery HRV” which among other components uses 7-days of sleep, but it is unclear what this means or how it is differentiated from other scores (there are clearly no data for outcomes). We have no knowledge of how the different components are weighted or whether any of these scores are better than resting heart rate, HRV alone, physical activity, or any other single metric. Since none of these are standardized, they are not interchangeable, so if you get a 90 for Oura that has no relationship to a 90 on a Google Fitbit Air. Notably, the company can update its algorithm for readiness score at any point without notification to device users. Without any useful evidence of actionability for these scores or established relationship with health outcomes, it is hard to make a case for their value. At the Apple recent announcement they showed their Readiness score (0-10) on the watch (Figure below) but there are no published data on this score, not even on their website. It’s available only on their new Watch Series 12 or Ultra 4 [of course, ;-)]. That exemplifies the problems with these scores, lack of data and evidence for being meaningful to promote health. Perhaps the best study (which isn’t saying much) is the WHOOP Recovery for golfer performance, because it did correlate with an objective outcome, even though there was no control group and the authors were all from the company. Among the 389 pro golfers, an absolute 10-per cent point increase in Recovery score was associated with about 0.5 fewer strokes per round. But that’s hardly a health outcome! WHOOP is also conducting a study in over 2,700 runners to see if their recovery score will be linked to less injuries and improved performance, but that is not yet published and has no control group or randomization. Putting This in Context For two decades I’ve been enthusiastic about the potential for digital health and particularly wearable biosensors. Over the years, we’ve seen some great progress for their ability to promote physical activity and accurately detect atrial fibrillation (the first FDA cleared deep learning AI for consumers). That work was the subject of rigorous research. But there are holes in the data and evidence for other metrics. One notable one is the “VO2 max” story that I wrote about earlier this year. At that time many subscribers asked me to cover heart rate variability, which I finally got to here. When I dived into the research and publication for HRV and readiness scores, I expected to find at least some that were of high quality and demonstrated their utility by linkage to health outcomes. To my surprise, I found none. The wearable sensor measurements for HRV (PRV) are, for the most part, accurate, but that validation work has only been done in small studies of healthy adults and does not take into account the long list of factors, from the device, software side, and the user side, that affect HRV measurements. Moreover, this metric chiefly relies on optical sensing and, as we have learned for heart rate PPG sensing, may be less accurate in people of color. Keep in mind that all of the health outcome association evidence comes from ECG-derived HRV; none are from wearable sensor data. I will repeat the key point: there's no peer-reviewed evidence to show that in-person HRV fluctuation—or efforts to raise your HRV— has any correlation with health outcomes. For those of you who look at your HRV on awakening, or even 2+ week trends of it being low, I hope this context helps to relieve any anxiety. Yes, low HRV (not PRV) has been shown to increase risk of some diseases as summarized above. But efforts to raise your HRV—a surrogate metric— has not been established for improving any health outcomes. HRV does not have any evidence of causality (the genetic evidence actually goes against this possibility). In this summary, I have not included data for other wearable sensors such as Polar, Samsung, Withings, Suunto, Amazfit, Coros, Ultrahuman, or additional mattress sensors. These are beyond my first-hand experience, and as far as I know from my in-depth review none have any peer-reviewed published data that differ from the 6 sensors I’ve reviewed here. From the points I’ve gone over above, we’re not ready for readiness scores. Besides being proprietary, they are predominantly based on metrics that have their own issues. It’s compounding the problem, like building a house without a solid foundation that has never undergone a rigorous inspection, and then selling it. Like I mentioned for PRV, you can look at trends over weeks rather than any single day, to get a handle, but even that may not be helpful. There’s simply no evidence that these scores meaningfully relate to health outcomes. I’d emphasize they might, but that requires doing prospective or randomized studies to prove it. None exist. There’s great promise for HRV/PRV utility_. For example**,**_ Prof Maiken Nedergaard, who discovered the brain glymphatics that are essential in eliminating metabolic waste products from the brain during sleep, has posited that HRV could be a non-invasive marker for neuromodulator oscillations, brain-body regulatory circuits, and brain clearance. That would be extremely useful, but like everything else on HRV and readiness scores it requires solid research and validation. The lay media isn’t helping much to get the story straight. Earlier this year The Economist published a piece entitled “The most useful indicator of your overall health” which ordained HRV as an “accumulated stress score.” That’s akin to the false assertion about VO2max: “V02 max is the singular most powerful marker for longevity.” As I’ve summarized here, that is not established. The fact is that so many things can lower HRV, including physical exercise (especially an intense workout), reduced sleep quality, stress, the list above, no less the device, signal, and software. Whatever fluctuations observed have not been correlated with any health outcome. Sadly, “datamaxxers” are widely using HRV and readiness scores that have never been validated to mean anything. We already know that for some people using the sensors for sleep metrics, it can induce “orthosomnia,” an obsession to get high sleep quality, with associated high levels of anxiety. In an experiment done by a company to promote sleep quality for its employees, “For those employees who did use the trackers, many reported feeling perfectly rested until their tracker told them they had had a terrible night. Others were told that they had slept like a baby when they had actually been lying awake worrying about the quality of their sleep. “ The same problem can result from preoccupation with HRV or readiness scores, with anxiety that would lead to further reduction in both. It you are using a wearable like >100 million American adults, it’s OK to look at these data, but contextualized with the major caveats reviewed here. If you are one to require evidence that HRV or readiness scores are linked to health outcomes, you may not even want to look. The companies make it hard to turn them off! Let me end with the companies that make and sell wearables. Apple’s doubling down on HRV (24-fold more reporting and heart rate very 5 seconds) and introduction of a Readiness score tells us that consumers have bought into these metrics and they are joining the club. However, all of this is occurring with a backdrop of tens millions of users, claims about the data that are not backed up by adequate evidence, marketing way out in front of whatever limited data exists, and not being transparent about their readiness score algorithms. The companies can well afford to do the research that is needed to connect these metrics with health outcomes show, once and for all, that increasing HRV or using readiness scores promotes our health. If they believed and invested in the products they are selling, we’d not be in this position of not knowing. That’s essentially where we are with HRV and readiness scores. Perhaps someday this will change and we’ll have good reason to embrace them. NB: I wrote this post. No AI. I have no conflicts of interest with any of its content. Loading... Ground Truths has 215,000 subscribers from every US state and 214 countries. There are over 300,000 followers of Ground Truths so more than 90,000 folks who can easily convert to be free subscribers. Your subscription to these free essays and podcasts makes my work in putting them together worthwhile. If you’re not a subscriber, please join! If you found this interesting PLEASE share it! Share Ground Truths The proceeds from all voluntary paid subscriptions go to support our summer internship program. It enabled us to accept and support a record number of 62 summer interns that joined us in 2026! These are high school, college and medical students selected from thousands of applicants. We couldn’t do this expanded program without the funds coming in through Ground Truths. Thank you!
iPhone 18 Pro Teardown Reveals How Apple Shrunk the Dynamic Island
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Scientists hope deeper-rooted soybeans can withstand climate extremes and store more carbon
CHAMPAIGN, Ill. (AP) — Research scientist Ashish Rajurkar kneels in the dirt, lifting a large clod of soil tangled around a soybean plant. He knocks away pieces of earth from the plant's roots, which slope straight down instead of out to the side like typical soybean plants.
USC going with different travel plan for Rutgers game
Due to the length of the trip, the Trojans will depart for Rutgers a day earlier than they typically do for road games
In leaked recording, Nebraska Senate candidate criticizes some Trump voters
Osborn has carefully sought to maintain an independent profile to attract crossover voters of both parties in the typically red state.
Siena athletics to add a new sport in 2027-28
Acrobatic and tumbling programs typically carry 35 to 45 student-athletes, according to Siena, one of many schools grappling with enrollment issues. Siena's enrollment dropped more than 9% last year.
Polis announces winners of ‘Governor for a Day’ contest
Colorado Gov. Jared Polis announced the two winners of his “Governor for a Day” competition, which lets seventh- and eighth-grade students shadow him throughout a typical workday. “I was so blown away watching the inspirational videos that young Coloradans made about our state and why they want to be Governor for a Day, that I […]
“The Breakfast Club” star Judd Nelson makes rare appearance in Los Angeles
The “St. Elmo’s Fire” actor typically keeps out of the public eye.
Investors Purchase High Volume of Call Options on Dave & Buster's Entertainment (NASDAQ:PLAY)
Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. (NASDAQ:PLAY - Get Free Report) was the target of unusually large options trading activity on Monday. Stock investors purchased 11,361 call options on the stock. This is an increase of 345% compared to the typical daily volume of 2,551 call options.
Stop Automating Old Processes. Design New Ones Instead.
Companies are pouring money into AI but often failing to generate enterprise-wide returns because they automate individual tasks rather than redesign the workflows that produce business value. This typically results in one or more of four failures: accelerating tasks rather than value, ignoring unhappy outcomes, overlooking the end-to-end flow of work, or optimizing the wrong metric. To capture AI’s potential, managers need to make three decisions. First, determine what to redesign by identifying the outcome customers value, the constraints AI can remove, and opportunities for learning that compounds over time. Second, decide where human authority should remain, choosing among four modes—Assist, Approve, Audit, and Automate—according to the stakes and reversibility of potential errors. Third, design for the “unhappy path”: specify how the system will recognize uncertainty, escalate exceptions, stop or reverse actions, and learn from corrections. Together, these choices turn isolated AI experiments into reliable, value-producing operating processes.
One of X’s most notorious ragebaiters explains how the outrage business earned him $80,000—and why he’ll keep posting even as the creator model shifts
A typical month posting for Lefkowitz has paid between $3,000 and $10,000 from X.
Bone Health Without the Hype
I am at the Australasian Menopause Society meeting and we had a fantastic lecture on Bone Health on Day 2, called, “Everything you need to know about bones - except the boring bits!” Spoiler alert, there were no boring bits. The lecture was given by Dr. Amanda Beech, who is a senior staff specialist in Obstetric Medicine and Endocrinology at the Royal Hospital for Women, where she is director of the Bone Density Unit. I want to summarize my top 10 take-aways for you. Share Osteoporosis is a disease of low bone mass, disruption of bone microarchitecture, and fragility of the skeleton. It is a silent disease…until someone develops a fracture. The diagnosis of osteoporosis is based on either fragility/minimal trauma fractures or a T-score of less than -2.5 on a DXA (Dual-Energy X-ray Absorptiometry) or bone scan. It is important to recognize that about 50% of minimal trauma fractures occur when women have low bone mass (often referred to as osteopenia), but not osteoporosis. This tells us that bone strength is more complicated than a number on a DXA report. I am going to add a little here that wasn’t in the talk (one can only include so much in 25 minutes), as many women might read the above paragraph and think, “Shouldn’t we be treating everyone with low bone mass if this is when 50% of the fractures occur?” Many fractures happen for women with low bone mass because there are so many women with low bone mass –it is a statement about the population on a whole, not about the fracture risk of low bone mass. For you as an individual, bone density is only one component of fracture risk and many women with lower bone mass will not have a significantly elevated fracture risk. This is why individualized risk assessment matters. Subscribe We build bone in our teens and twenties, and by the time we are about thirty we have reached peak bone mass. This is why, when we discuss risk factors for osteoporosis, it is important to consider factors that might have affected us in our teens and twenties when we were actively building bone, such as nutritional restriction/energy imbalance. It is important to ask women about a history of eating disorders, and for those with such a history, getting a bone scan in perimenopause or at age 50 is likely warranted. (This image below isn’t from the talk, but is similar to one that was). Bone mass is relatively stable until about two years before the final menstrual period, and perimenopause marks a time of rapid bone loss for women. Using urinary markers of bone loss we know that the time of significantly accelerated bone loss starts about 1 year before the final period and ends about 2 years after the final period. The Study of Women’s Health Across the Nation (SWAN) shows that over the menopause transition women lose an average of 10.6% of the bone at their lumbar spine and 9.1% at the femoral neck While this wasn’t covered in the lecture, I want to add that the rapid bone loss during perimenopause is clearly related to more than estradiol, because during this time estradiol levels can be erratic and not uniformly low. Bone loss during perimenopause is likely a multi-hormone event. For example, rising FSH (follicle stimulating hormone) tracks with bone loss better than estradiol, and there is evidence that FSH may act directly on bone. While decreased estrogen matters, there is clearly more going on. FSH and bone is an active area of research. Subscribe Screening for osteoporosis was recommended fairly broadly before age 65, and was taken from the “Practitioner’s Toolkit for Managing Menopause,” from Monash University. Here is a screenshot from the toolkit that was used as a slide: I am going to add a little bit more about body weight here for clarification. Low body mass (typically 152.1 lb): 0 points (risk neutral) 60–69 kg (132.3–152.1 lb): 3 points (adds some risk)
Only one-third of California businesses survive 10 years. That’s typical.
Just 34% of California establishments remain open after 10 years. Nationally? 35%.
Doing business in Canada: Business organization and corporate governance
Businesses establishing a presence in Canada typically choose among incorporation (federally under the Canada Business Corporations Act (CBCA) or under an equivalent provincial statute), partnership (general, limited or limited liability, depending on the province), joint venture, sole proprietorship, or extra-provincial registration of an existing foreign entity as a branch.
Democratic Pa. Sen. Fetterman makes surprise video appearance at GOP midterm convention
Fetterman's appearance at a GOP event of this nature is highly atypical, but he notably made no announcement of any intention to change his party affiliation.
New wave of healthcare fraud enforcement
In past years, federal and state authorities typically initiated healthcare fraud investigations based on whistleblower complaints and audits. While that still occurs, the model is changing. Federal enforcement agencies are increasingly using sophisticated data analytics, artificial intelligence, and coordinated investigative efforts to identify potential fraud. The Department of Justice (DOJ),…
Military and intelligence officials discuss smaller presence in the Middle East as US looks for another post-9/11 strategy
In offices across the military and in the intelligence community, there have been recent quiet discussions about cutting the number of people and facilities typically stationed in the Middle East if the Trump administration succeeds in ending the Iran conflict, six sources say.
Star Trek used wormholes to jump through space – but what’s the science behind them?
The first appearance of a wormhole in Star Trek was a typically pioneering reference to what was then a niche research topic.
3 Steps to Support Mental Health for Rural Youth
(Feature Impact) Young people face a growing number of pressures, including academic expectations, social responsibilities, complex family situations and uncertainty about their own futures. Mental health support is important for all – but in many rural areas, those pressures are even greater.According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the suicide rate for rural youth ages 15-19 is 74% higher than their urban counterparts. Barriers like limited insurance coverage, unreliable internet for telehealth, scarce providers, long drive times and lack of public transportation make it harder to get mental healthcare when it’s needed. Plus, asking for help can feel like opening oneself up to judgment and stigmatization.That’s why Rural Minds, the only nonprofit focused on mental health for rural communities, created the Rural Youth Mental Wellness pilot program supported by Boehringer Ingelheim. It was developed by an advisory committee made up of rural youth to provide their peers with practical, free, accessible mental health resources. Incorporating feedback on the pilot, the updated program sponsored by the Sompo Foundation is now launching its national rollout.“A young person’s ZIP code should never determine whether they can access meaningful mental health support where and when they need it,” said Jessica L. Schleider, Ph.D., director, Lab for Scalable Mental Health, Northwestern University. “Our lab is thrilled to partner with Rural Minds as they champion evidence-based, anonymous, freely available support tools designed to overcome barriers to help-seeking faced by rural youth across the country.”If the rural mental health crisis affects you or a loved one, consider these ways to help.Break the Stigma Surrounding Mental HealthIn communities where self-reliance is valued, asking for help can sometimes be viewed as a sign of weakness. Young people who feel unheard and unsupported often struggle with being vulnerable, so they continue carrying their increasingly heavy burdens alone.Parents, educators, healthcare providers, community leaders and peers can work to change that culture by normalizing mental health conversations. This includes helping teenagers feel seen and accepted by educating them on mental health issues and coping strategies, listening to their experiences without judgment, sharing your own stories and reminding them it’s courageous to seek support.Consider Single-Session InterventionsThe first step is always the hardest when it comes to seeking mental health support, and not every struggling young person is ready or able to see a therapist. With access to free, confidential, self-guided materials to begin building mental wellness skills, the first step may be less scary.Single-Session Interventions (SSIs) are brief, structured online courses designed to teach youth practical skills for handling stress, low mood, self-image and more. The Rural Youth Mental Wellness Program offers SSIs in partnership with Project YES (Youth Empowerment and Support), a free digital resource developed with Northwestern University’s Lab for Scalable Mental Health at the Feinberg School of Medicine.Anonymous access to SSIs through the partnership provides strategies for:Improving moodRethinking body imageReframing negative thoughtsKnowing your power to changeTaking steps toward goalsProtecting LGBTQ+ prideHandling self-harm urgesStaying safe amid dark thoughtsEach SSI typically takes 5-10 minutes. Although SSIs are not a replacement for therapy, they provide a research-backed source of support for young people experiencing bouts of stress or low-to-moderate distress.Know When to Seek Professional HelpSelf-guided resources and supportive conversations are a valuable starting point, but sometimes young people need qualified professional help. Look for symptoms like worsening mood or behavior, substance use, self-harm or difficulty managing everyday tasks, and take teens seriously when they express dark feelings.Doctors and counselors can provide personalized support for youth in crisis, and the 988 Suicide and Crisis Lifeline offers free, confidential 24/7 support for mental health by dialing 9-8-8.“I grew up in a small town where mental health was almost taboo,” said committee member Asheton Medlin. “Being part of the committee that built this program let me help make sure rural youth today have the support I didn’t. I’m excited to help bring these resources to them because this generation deserves the chance to grow up and change the world.”Find more information at RuralMinds.org.Photos courtesy of Shutterstock googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('yup-rectangle-one'); });
3 Steps to Support Mental Health for Rural Youth
(Feature Impact) Young people face a growing number of pressures, including academic expectations, social responsibilities, complex family situations and uncertainty about their own futures. Mental health support is important for all – but in many rural areas, those pressures are even greater.According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the suicide rate for rural youth ages 15-19 is 74% higher than their urban counterparts. Barriers like limited insurance coverage, unreliable internet for telehealth, scarce providers, long drive times and lack of public transportation make it harder to get mental healthcare when it’s needed. Plus, asking for help can feel like opening oneself up to judgment and stigmatization.That’s why Rural Minds, the only nonprofit focused on mental health for rural communities, created the Rural Youth Mental Wellness pilot program supported by Boehringer Ingelheim. It was developed by an advisory committee made up of rural youth to provide their peers with practical, free, accessible mental health resources. Incorporating feedback on the pilot, the updated program sponsored by the Sompo Foundation is now launching its national rollout.“A young person’s ZIP code should never determine whether they can access meaningful mental health support where and when they need it,” said Jessica L. Schleider, Ph.D., director, Lab for Scalable Mental Health, Northwestern University. “Our lab is thrilled to partner with Rural Minds as they champion evidence-based, anonymous, freely available support tools designed to overcome barriers to help-seeking faced by rural youth across the country.”If the rural mental health crisis affects you or a loved one, consider these ways to help.Break the Stigma Surrounding Mental HealthIn communities where self-reliance is valued, asking for help can sometimes be viewed as a sign of weakness. Young people who feel unheard and unsupported often struggle with being vulnerable, so they continue carrying their increasingly heavy burdens alone.Parents, educators, healthcare providers, community leaders and peers can work to change that culture by normalizing mental health conversations. This includes helping teenagers feel seen and accepted by educating them on mental health issues and coping strategies, listening to their experiences without judgment, sharing your own stories and reminding them it’s courageous to seek support.Consider Single-Session InterventionsThe first step is always the hardest when it comes to seeking mental health support, and not every struggling young person is ready or able to see a therapist. With access to free, confidential, self-guided materials to begin building mental wellness skills, the first step may be less scary.#placement_1042740_0_i{width:100%;max-width:550px;margin:0 auto;}var rnd = window.rnd || Math.floor(Math.random()*10e6);var pid1042740 = window.pid1042740 || rnd;var plc1042740 = window.plc1042740 || 0;var abkw = window.abkw || '';var absrc = 'https://ads.empowerlocal.co/adserve/;ID=181918;size=0x0;setID=1042740;type=js;sw='+screen.width+';sh='+screen.height+';spr='+window.devicePixelRatio+';kw='+abkw+';pid='+pid1042740+';place='+(plc1042740++)+';rnd='+rnd+';click=CLICK_MACRO_PLACEHOLDER';var _absrc = absrc.split("type=js"); absrc = _absrc[0] + 'type=js;referrer=' + encodeURIComponent(document.location.href) + _absrc[1];document.write('');Single-Session Interventions (SSIs) are brief, structured online courses designed to teach youth practical skills for handling stress, low mood, self-image and more. The Rural Youth Mental Wellness Program offers SSIs in partnership with Project YES (Youth Empowerment and Support), a free digital resource developed with Northwestern University’s Lab for Scalable Mental Health at the Feinberg School of Medicine.Anonymous access to SSIs through the partnership provides strategies for:Improving moodRethinking body imageReframing negative thoughtsKnowing your power to changeTaking steps toward goalsProtecting LGBTQ+ prideHandling self-harm urgesStaying safe amid dark thoughtsEach SSI typically takes 5-10 minutes. Although SSIs are not a replacement for therapy, they provide a research-backed source of support for young people experiencing bouts of stress or low-to-moderate distress.Know When to Seek Professional HelpSelf-guided resources and supportive conversations are a valuable starting point, but sometimes young people need qualified professional help. Look for symptoms like worsening mood or behavior, substance use, self-harm or difficulty managing everyday tasks, and take teens seriously when they express dark feelings.Doctors and counselors can provide personalized support for youth in crisis, and the 988 Suicide and Crisis Lifeline offers free, confidential 24/7 support for mental health by dialing 9-8-8.“I grew up in a small town where mental health was almost taboo,” said committee member Asheton Medlin. “Being part of the committee that built this program let me help make sure rural youth today have the support I didn’t. I’m excited to help bring these resources to them because this generation deserves the chance to grow up and change the world.”Find more information at RuralMinds.org.Photos courtesy of Shutterstock
3 Steps to Support Mental Health for Rural Youth
(Feature Impact) Young people face a growing number of pressures, including academic expectations, social responsibilities, complex family situations and uncertainty about their own futures. Mental health support is important for all – but in many rural areas, those pressures are even greater.According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the suicide rate for rural youth ages 15-19 is 74% higher than their urban counterparts. Barriers like limited insurance coverage, unreliable internet for telehealth, scarce providers, long drive times and lack of public transportation make it harder to get mental healthcare when it’s needed. Plus, asking for help can feel like opening oneself up to judgment and stigmatization.That’s why Rural Minds, the only nonprofit focused on mental health for rural communities, created the Rural Youth Mental Wellness pilot program supported by Boehringer Ingelheim. It was developed by an advisory committee made up of rural youth to provide their peers with practical, free, accessible mental health resources. Incorporating feedback on the pilot, the updated program sponsored by the Sompo Foundation is now launching its national rollout.“A young person’s ZIP code should never determine whether they can access meaningful mental health support where and when they need it,” said Jessica L. Schleider, Ph.D., director, Lab for Scalable Mental Health, Northwestern University. “Our lab is thrilled to partner with Rural Minds as they champion evidence-based, anonymous, freely available support tools designed to overcome barriers to help-seeking faced by rural youth across the country.”If the rural mental health crisis affects you or a loved one, consider these ways to help.Break the Stigma Surrounding Mental HealthIn communities where self-reliance is valued, asking for help can sometimes be viewed as a sign of weakness. Young people who feel unheard and unsupported often struggle with being vulnerable, so they continue carrying their increasingly heavy burdens alone.Parents, educators, healthcare providers, community leaders and peers can work to change that culture by normalizing mental health conversations. This includes helping teenagers feel seen and accepted by educating them on mental health issues and coping strategies, listening to their experiences without judgment, sharing your own stories and reminding them it’s courageous to seek support.Consider Single-Session InterventionsThe first step is always the hardest when it comes to seeking mental health support, and not every struggling young person is ready or able to see a therapist. With access to free, confidential, self-guided materials to begin building mental wellness skills, the first step may be less scary.Single-Session Interventions (SSIs) are brief, structured online courses designed to teach youth practical skills for handling stress, low mood, self-image and more. The Rural Youth Mental Wellness Program offers SSIs in partnership with Project YES (Youth Empowerment and Support), a free digital resource developed with Northwestern University’s Lab for Scalable Mental Health at the Feinberg School of Medicine.Anonymous access to SSIs through the partnership provides strategies for:Improving moodRethinking body imageReframing negative thoughtsKnowing your power to changeTaking steps toward goalsProtecting LGBTQ+ prideHandling self-harm urgesStaying safe amid dark thoughtsEach SSI typically takes 5-10 minutes. Although SSIs are not a replacement for therapy, they provide a research-backed source of support for young people experiencing bouts of stress or low-to-moderate distress.Know When to Seek Professional HelpSelf-guided resources and supportive conversations are a valuable starting point, but sometimes young people need qualified professional help. Look for symptoms like worsening mood or behavior, substance use, self-harm or difficulty managing everyday tasks, and take teens seriously when they express dark feelings.Doctors and counselors can provide personalized support for youth in crisis, and the 988 Suicide and Crisis Lifeline offers free, confidential 24/7 support for mental health by dialing 9-8-8.“I grew up in a small town where mental health was almost taboo,” said committee member Asheton Medlin. “Being part of the committee that built this program let me help make sure rural youth today have the support I didn’t. I’m excited to help bring these resources to them because this generation deserves the chance to grow up and change the world.”Find more information at RuralMinds.org.Photos courtesy of Shutterstock
3 Steps to Support Mental Health for Rural Youth
(Feature Impact) Young people face a growing number of pressures, including academic expectations, social responsibilities, complex family situations and uncertainty about their own futures. Mental health support is important for all – but in many rural areas, those pressures are even greater.According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the suicide rate for rural youth ages 15-19 is 74% higher than their urban counterparts. Barriers like limited insurance coverage, unreliable internet for telehealth, scarce providers, long drive times and lack of public transportation make it harder to get mental healthcare when it’s needed. Plus, asking for help can feel like opening oneself up to judgment and stigmatization.That’s why Rural Minds, the only nonprofit focused on mental health for rural communities, created the Rural Youth Mental Wellness pilot program supported by Boehringer Ingelheim. It was developed by an advisory committee made up of rural youth to provide their peers with practical, free, accessible mental health resources. Incorporating feedback on the pilot, the updated program sponsored by the Sompo Foundation is now launching its national rollout.“A young person’s ZIP code should never determine whether they can access meaningful mental health support where and when they need it,” said Jessica L. Schleider, Ph.D., director, Lab for Scalable Mental Health, Northwestern University. “Our lab is thrilled to partner with Rural Minds as they champion evidence-based, anonymous, freely available support tools designed to overcome barriers to help-seeking faced by rural youth across the country.”If the rural mental health crisis affects you or a loved one, consider these ways to help.Break the Stigma Surrounding Mental HealthIn communities where self-reliance is valued, asking for help can sometimes be viewed as a sign of weakness. Young people who feel unheard and unsupported often struggle with being vulnerable, so they continue carrying their increasingly heavy burdens alone.Parents, educators, healthcare providers, community leaders and peers can work to change that culture by normalizing mental health conversations. This includes helping teenagers feel seen and accepted by educating them on mental health issues and coping strategies, listening to their experiences without judgment, sharing your own stories and reminding them it’s courageous to seek support.Consider Single-Session InterventionsThe first step is always the hardest when it comes to seeking mental health support, and not every struggling young person is ready or able to see a therapist. With access to free, confidential, self-guided materials to begin building mental wellness skills, the first step may be less scary.Single-Session Interventions (SSIs) are brief, structured online courses designed to teach youth practical skills for handling stress, low mood, self-image and more. The Rural Youth Mental Wellness Program offers SSIs in partnership with Project YES (Youth Empowerment and Support), a free digital resource developed with Northwestern University’s Lab for Scalable Mental Health at the Feinberg School of Medicine.Anonymous access to SSIs through the partnership provides strategies for:Improving moodRethinking body imageReframing negative thoughtsKnowing your power to changeTaking steps toward goalsProtecting LGBTQ+ prideHandling self-harm urgesStaying safe amid dark thoughtsEach SSI typically takes 5-10 minutes. Although SSIs are not a replacement for therapy, they provide a research-backed source of support for young people experiencing bouts of stress or low-to-moderate distress.Know When to Seek Professional HelpSelf-guided resources and supportive conversations are a valuable starting point, but sometimes young people need qualified professional help. Look for symptoms like worsening mood or behavior, substance use, self-harm or difficulty managing everyday tasks, and take teens seriously when they express dark feelings.Doctors and counselors can provide personalized support for youth in crisis, and the 988 Suicide and Crisis Lifeline offers free, confidential 24/7 support for mental health by dialing 9-8-8.“I grew up in a small town where mental health was almost taboo,” said committee member Asheton Medlin. “Being part of the committee that built this program let me help make sure rural youth today have the support I didn’t. I’m excited to help bring these resources to them because this generation deserves the chance to grow up and change the world.”Find more information at RuralMinds.org.Photos courtesy of Shutterstock
3 Steps to Support Mental Health for Rural Youth
(Feature Impact) Young people face a growing number of pressures, including academic expectations, social responsibilities, complex family situations and uncertainty about their own futures. Mental health support is important for all – but in many rural areas, those pressures are even greater. TNCMS.AdManager.render({region: 'fixed-big-ad-top-asset', slot: 1, fold: "above"}); According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the suicide rate for rural youth ages 15-19 is 74% higher than their urban counterparts. Barriers like limited insurance coverage, unreliable internet for telehealth, scarce providers, long drive times and lack of public transportation make it harder to get mental healthcare when it’s needed. Plus, asking for help can feel like opening oneself up to judgment and stigmatization.That’s why Rural Minds, the only nonprofit focused on mental health for rural communities, created the Rural Youth Mental Wellness pilot program supported by Boehringer Ingelheim. It was developed by an advisory committee made up of rural youth to provide their peers with practical, free, accessible mental health resources. Incorporating feedback on the pilot, the updated program sponsored by the Sompo Foundation is now launching its national rollout.“A young person’s ZIP code should never determine whether they can access meaningful mental health support where and when they need it,” said Jessica L. Schleider, Ph.D., director, Lab for Scalable Mental Health, Northwestern University. “Our lab is thrilled to partner with Rural Minds as they champion evidence-based, anonymous, freely available support tools designed to overcome barriers to help-seeking faced by rural youth across the country.”If the rural mental health crisis affects you or a loved one, consider these ways to help.Break the Stigma Surrounding Mental HealthIn communities where self-reliance is valued, asking for help can sometimes be viewed as a sign of weakness. Young people who feel unheard and unsupported often struggle with being vulnerable, so they continue carrying their increasingly heavy burdens alone.Parents, educators, healthcare providers, community leaders and peers can work to change that culture by normalizing mental health conversations. This includes helping teenagers feel seen and accepted by educating them on mental health issues and coping strategies, listening to their experiences without judgment, sharing your own stories and reminding them it’s courageous to seek support.Consider Single-Session InterventionsThe first step is always the hardest when it comes to seeking mental health support, and not every struggling young person is ready or able to see a therapist. With access to free, confidential, self-guided materials to begin building mental wellness skills, the first step may be less scary. TNCMS.AdManager.render({region: 'fixed-big-ad-middle-asset', slot: 1, fold: "span"}); Single-Session Interventions (SSIs) are brief, structured online courses designed to teach youth practical skills for handling stress, low mood, self-image and more. The Rural Youth Mental Wellness Program offers SSIs in partnership with Project YES (Youth Empowerment and Support), a free digital resource developed with Northwestern University’s Lab for Scalable Mental Health at the Feinberg School of Medicine.Anonymous access to SSIs through the partnership provides strategies for:Improving moodRethinking body imageReframing negative thoughtsKnowing your power to changeTaking steps toward goalsProtecting LGBTQ+ prideHandling self-harm urgesStaying safe amid dark thoughtsEach SSI typically takes 5-10 minutes. Although SSIs are not a replacement for therapy, they provide a research-backed source of support for young people experiencing bouts of stress or low-to-moderate distress.Know When to Seek Professional HelpSelf-guided resources and supportive conversations are a valuable starting point, but sometimes young people need qualified professional help. Look for symptoms like worsening mood or behavior, substance use, self-harm or difficulty managing everyday tasks, and take teens seriously when they express dark feelings.Doctors and counselors can provide personalized support for youth in crisis, and the 988 Suicide and Crisis Lifeline offers free, confidential 24/7 support for mental health by dialing 9-8-8.“I grew up in a small town where mental health was almost taboo,” said committee member Asheton Medlin. “Being part of the committee that built this program let me help make sure rural youth today have the support I didn’t. I’m excited to help bring these resources to them because this generation deserves the chance to grow up and change the world.”Find more information at RuralMinds.org.Photos courtesy of Shutterstock TNCMS.AdManager.render({region: 'fixed-big-ad-bottom-asset', slot: 1, fold: "below"});
3 Steps to Support Mental Health for Rural Youth
(Feature Impact) Young people face a growing number of pressures, including academic expectations, social responsibilities, complex family situations and uncertainty about their own futures. Mental health support is important for all – but in many rural areas, those pressures are even greater.#placement_1126603_0_i{width:100%;max-width:550px;margin:0 auto;}var rnd = window.rnd || Math.floor(Math.random()*10e6);var pid1126603 = window.pid1126603 || rnd;var plc1126603 = window.plc1126603 || 0;var abkw = window.abkw || '';var absrc = 'https://ads.empowerlocal.co/adserve/;ID=181918;size=0x0;setID=1126603;type=js;sw='+screen.width+';sh='+screen.height+';spr='+window.devicePixelRatio+';kw='+abkw+';pid='+pid1126603+';place='+(plc1126603++)+';rnd='+rnd+';click=CLICK_MACRO_PLACEHOLDER';var _absrc = absrc.split("type=js"); absrc = _absrc[0] + 'type=js;referrer=' + encodeURIComponent(document.location.href) + _absrc[1];document.write('');According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the suicide rate for rural youth ages 15-19 is 74% higher than their urban counterparts. Barriers like limited insurance coverage, unreliable internet for telehealth, scarce providers, long drive times and lack of public transportation make it harder to get mental healthcare when it’s needed. Plus, asking for help can feel like opening oneself up to judgment and stigmatization.That’s why Rural Minds, the only nonprofit focused on mental health for rural communities, created the Rural Youth Mental Wellness pilot program supported by Boehringer Ingelheim. It was developed by an advisory committee made up of rural youth to provide their peers with practical, free, accessible mental health resources. Incorporating feedback on the pilot, the updated program sponsored by the Sompo Foundation is now launching its national rollout.“A young person’s ZIP code should never determine whether they can access meaningful mental health support where and when they need it,” said Jessica L. Schleider, Ph.D., director, Lab for Scalable Mental Health, Northwestern University. “Our lab is thrilled to partner with Rural Minds as they champion evidence-based, anonymous, freely available support tools designed to overcome barriers to help-seeking faced by rural youth across the country.”If the rural mental health crisis affects you or a loved one, consider these ways to help.Break the Stigma Surrounding Mental HealthIn communities where self-reliance is valued, asking for help can sometimes be viewed as a sign of weakness. Young people who feel unheard and unsupported often struggle with being vulnerable, so they continue carrying their increasingly heavy burdens alone.Parents, educators, healthcare providers, community leaders and peers can work to change that culture by normalizing mental health conversations. This includes helping teenagers feel seen and accepted by educating them on mental health issues and coping strategies, listening to their experiences without judgment, sharing your own stories and reminding them it’s courageous to seek support.Consider Single-Session InterventionsThe first step is always the hardest when it comes to seeking mental health support, and not every struggling young person is ready or able to see a therapist. With access to free, confidential, self-guided materials to begin building mental wellness skills, the first step may be less scary. Single-Session Interventions (SSIs) are brief, structured online courses designed to teach youth practical skills for handling stress, low mood, self-image and more. The Rural Youth Mental Wellness Program offers SSIs in partnership with Project YES (Youth Empowerment and Support), a free digital resource developed with Northwestern University’s Lab for Scalable Mental Health at the Feinberg School of Medicine.Anonymous access to SSIs through the partnership provides strategies for:Improving moodRethinking body imageReframing negative thoughtsKnowing your power to changeTaking steps toward goalsProtecting LGBTQ+ prideHandling self-harm urgesStaying safe amid dark thoughtsEach SSI typically takes 5-10 minutes. Although SSIs are not a replacement for therapy, they provide a research-backed source of support for young people experiencing bouts of stress or low-to-moderate distress.Know When to Seek Professional HelpSelf-guided resources and supportive conversations are a valuable starting point, but sometimes young people need qualified professional help. Look for symptoms like worsening mood or behavior, substance use, self-harm or difficulty managing everyday tasks, and take teens seriously when they express dark feelings.Doctors and counselors can provide personalized support for youth in crisis, and the 988 Suicide and Crisis Lifeline offers free, confidential 24/7 support for mental health by dialing 9-8-8.“I grew up in a small town where mental health was almost taboo,” said committee member Asheton Medlin. “Being part of the committee that built this program let me help make sure rural youth today have the support I didn’t. I’m excited to help bring these resources to them because this generation deserves the chance to grow up and change the world.”Find more information at RuralMinds.org.Photos courtesy of Shutterstock
Poll: A polarized America unites behind deep concerns about AI
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2026-27 Season Preview: London Knights
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What Box Office Bomb Crushed Obsession on Streaming?
(Welcome to my weekly streaming ratings report, the single best guide to what’s popular in streaming TV and what isn’t. I’m the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a former streaming executive who now analyzes business strategy in the entertainment industry. If you were forwarded this email, please subscribe to get these insights each week.) Before we get into this week’s issue, let me ask you for some suggestions. At the risk of coining too many names for too many things (hence my dictionary of terms...), I need a name for straight-to-streaming films that are too expensive to justify a straight-to-streaming release, but not big enough to justify a theatrical release. Like some of the films I highlighted in last week’s tally of the biggest film flops of 2026 so far: Hulu’s Mike & Nick & Nick & Alice, Pizza Movie or Never Change! They don’t feel like “made for TV movies” (think Hallmark and Lifetime movies, cheap Netflix romcoms, or Disney Channel Original movies, for example) but they don’t feel big enough for the big screen. They’re not “cinematic” enough, so to speak. As I wrote... “I still need a name for this middle zone of film that’s too expensive to go straight-to-streaming but too small to justify a theatrical release (with all the PR, distribution, marketing and whatnot costs that go along with it), the Goldilocks zone of streaming film death.” Friend of the newsletter Brandon Katz has suggested the “Bermuda Budget Triangle”, “The Platform Gap” and “The Distribution Deadzone”. I love that first one. I’d offer up the much wordier “The Streaming Budget Dead Zone” or “the Goldilocks Zone of streaming film death” but that last one isn’t accurate since, unlike Goldilocks’ porridge, these films are the opposite of “just right”. That’s the problem! Anyway, if you have any suggestions, let me know! On to today’s Streaming Ratings Report. As you can tell by today’s headline, things are going to be spicy! I’m looking at a box office bomb that did really, really well on streaming, somewhat challenging a few different narratives. And another Netflix series declined in its second season. All that, plus Wicked: For Good switching streamers, The Hawk continuing its strong run, _The Bear’_s finale season finally dropping off the charts, the WNBA posting a big viewership number, “shallow libraries”, a sitcom spinoff failing to launch, more big budget IP flopping on Paramount+, all the flops, bombs and misses, and a whole lot more. Let’s dive right in! (Reminder: The streaming ratings report focuses on the U.S. market and compiles data from Nielsen’s weekly top ten viewership ranks, Luminate’s Top Ten Data, JustWatch and Reelgood interest data, Samba TV household viewership, company datecdotes, Netflix hours viewed data, Google Trends, and IMDb to determine the most popular content. While most data points are current, Nielsen’s data covers the weeks of July 20th to July 26th, 2026. You can find a link to my terminology here.) Subscribe Film - The Latest Theatrical Success Story on Streaming In the latest edition of “Flops, Bombs and Misses of the First Half of 2026”, I made a crucial change: I started including theatrical films with the streaming misses. The streamers have collectively—including Netflix, but not to as big of an extent—stopped making a lot of straight-to-streaming films, and the ones they do make aren’t as expensive as in the heyday of the streaming bubble. After the following two films bombed in theaters, you’d guess that they’ll be included in my next collection of flops, bombs and misses six months from now: Masters of the Universe on Prime Video (only $64 million domestic box office) Mortal Kombat II on HBO Max ($79 million domestic) But you’d be wrong! Masters of the Universe, a reboot of the He-Man franchise, a toy from the 1980s, came to streaming on 22-July and did great! This long-gestating project—it’s been at every studio for years, and came close to getting a greenlight at Netflix—then finally came to theaters in June, and showed up on streaming less than two months later. (I don’t love this short theatrical window.) It surprisingly grabbed nearly 20 million hours on its debut: That means, wait for it, Masters of the Universe is currently the eighth biggest film on streaming through two weeks. My rough bar for “hit” is shows or films in the top 15%. Ergo…Masters of the Universe is a legit, streaming hit! (One quick caveat: if it falls out of the top ten next week, it will move to 13th overall, just on the edge of the top 15.) Of course, that’s the data for just 2026. Here’s how it stacks up to Prime Video’s theatrical films: That drop into its second week is typical for Amazon films, but also a worrying sign. I have a feeling interest in this film is front-loaded and we’ll see it drop off after this. As for Mortal Kombat II, in this case, the viewership numbers roughly match the theatrical outing, with only 4.1 million hours in its first week. Here’s how it stacks up to other HBO Max films: The best defense of this number is that, as a relatively violent rated-R film, Mortal Kombat II never had a good chance at breaking out. So now it’s time for a little big of “Entertainment Nuance Guy”: First, yeah, my headline is obviously facetious, since Masters of the Universe besting Obsession says more about horror as a genre than it does that film. Second, I read and listened to quite a few “nobody wanted this IP” takes about Masters of the Universe, and that’s not really true. At least enough people wanted it to power a 20 million+ hour debut! Third, both this film and Mortal Kombat II were considered “average” by viewers, but not great films, with a 6.4 and 6.3 respectively on IMDb. That’s just shy of the level needed to be a word-of-mouth hit. Fourth, in the olden days, strong word of mouth could transform a box office miss into a cable/DVD hit, like Austin Powers or The Shawshank Redemption. We haven’t seen a lot of examples of that on streaming, though. And there are far fewer ways to monetize the post-theatrical life of a film these days. Fifth, Prime Video has shown an ability to push their own titles well, likely because they control the Amazon Fire TV ecosystem. Add it all up, and here’s my nuanced take on Masters of the Universe: it was a box office bomb, but, shockingly, a streaming hit. Unfortunately, while being a theatrical hit saves your film financially, being a streaming hit does not. Both Masters of the Universe and Mortal Kombat II had big budgets and needed to make more money in theaters to justify them. So…Straight-to-Streaming or Theaters? We’ve hit a really fun point in the streaming calendar, since the films that came out in theaters in April, May, and June are now arriving on streaming. So the “Do theatrical releases help streaming performances?” question is gonna get a fresh round of updates nearly every week. No single week will answer the question, but we may get some insights. For example, so far in 2026, it looks like theatrical films are lasting longer on the weekly Nielsen film charts. Here’s a list of films that have made the charts in their fourth or fifth week of release, separated by “for kids” and “general entertainment”: It certainly seems like theatrical films are lasting just a pinch longer on the charts, with Project Hail Mary being the current five-week champion. One Battle After Another did well for HBO Max too, and even The Sheep Detectives made it four weeks. The only exception to this trend? Obsession, which only lasted two weeks on the charts. You might tempted to overreact to this news. Don’t. Obsession is a huge horror hit, but horror just doesn’t do as well on streaming. By the way, here’s the Google Trends for various theatrical and stremaing films: Plus, when it comes to Netflix in four months, Obsession may have another big boost. Quick Notes on Film Note that when I write, “the streamers have pulled back on straight-to-streaming films” that doesn’t mean “abandoned” because Netflix is gonna Netflix. On 24-July, they released 72 Hours, a Kevin Hart comedy. Along with Eddie Murphy, Mark Wahlberg, John Cena and Adam Sandler, Kevin Hart is a streaming film star now. Did this latest one work? Not really. It only garnered two weeks of 13.2 and 12.2 million hours on its debut, well below the 20-million-hour hit threshold. It also was poorly received critically—a 44 on Metacritic—and by customers—a 5.4 on IMDb on 21K IMDb reviews. We’re just getting started with this issue, but the rest is for paid subscribers of the Entertainment Strategy Guy, so if you’d like to find out… The latest Netflix true crime doc to pop on the charts… How The Bear finished its run… Netflix’s latest Western to return to streaming… What Paramount+ animated film flopped… And what sitcom also missed… All the flops, bombs and misses… And a whole lot more… ...please subscribe! We can only keep doing this great work with your support. Coming Soon! I’m behind by a week, so we’ve got two issues coming your way this week, including one in a couple of days or so, then we’ll be all caught up**.** Next issue, inspired by The Super Mario Galaxy Movie coming to Peacock, I’m going to take a look at the workhouse of streaming TV: kids films. Plus The Devil Wears Prada 2 continues theatrical films’ big run on streaming. All that, plus another surprise hit on Hulu, Lioness on CBS, and a whole lot more. Long term, LeBron James is filming his own “Last Dance”-style docu-series, surprising no one. But as I’ve been writing about a lot this summer, this genre is really overrated, so whoever ends up buying it (reportedly ESPN) really shouldn’t pay too much for it.
Politics keeps European stocks in America’s shadow
The bloc’s policymakers typically lean towards protecting consumers and taxpayers at the expense of investors
Polis announces ‘Governor for a Day’ contest for Colorado students
Colorado seventh and eighth graders have the chance to experience a day in the life of the governor through a new contest launched by Gov. Jared Polis. The “Governor for a Day” competition will give one student the chance to see firsthand how state government works, shadowing Polis during a typical workday. It appears to […]