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Record-breaking ocean drilling reveals why Japan's 2011 tsunami was so deadly
Scientists have uncovered a hidden weakness beneath the Pacific Ocean that helps explain why Japan’s catastrophic 2011 earthquake and tsunami became so devastating. By drilling deeper into the seafloor than ever before, researchers discovered a thin, slippery layer of ancient clay that allowed the massive rupture to race all the way to the ocean floor, triggering enormous seafloor movement and a powerful tsunami.
Democrats eye hopes of a blue wave in Wisconsin
Democrats see his race as one that could break their way if the blue wave they’re working toward turns into a tsunami.
China, Chile to explore Atacama Trench with ‘tools no other country possesses’
Three-month expedition will plumb uncharted depths of eastern Pacific in quest for new life forms and insights into quakes and tsunamis.
A 1,500-foot tsunami took scientists by surprise. Now we know why it happened
By chance a tour boat avoided a deadly tsunami set off by the retreat of Alaska's coast glaciers. Scientists are working to spot landslides like the one that caused the massive to warn people in harm's way
Is a ‘blue tsunami’ going to wipe out Republicans in the midterms?
Jonathan Freedland speaks to David Nir of the Downballot about why Democrats are feeling so hopeful in deep red states
A ‘silver tsunami’ is coming as boomer business owners retire: What that could mean
The landscape of the West Michigan business community has the potential to drastically change over the next decade as baby boomer owners retire.
Business Ins and Outs: Sushi place, Round the Clock, Honey Jam, Jimmy John's, Dunkin' and Tsunami Express opening
Business Ins and Outs: Sushi place, Round the Clock, Honey Jam, Jimmy John's, Dunkin' and Tsunami Express opening
Unity Promises Tsunami Of Garbage AI Games As Its Stock Tanks
If you love shovelware just wait
The Science Behind the AI Panic Is Shakier Than You Think
A column by Sascha Lobo Is AI making us dumb? So asked DER SPIEGEL on its cover a while ago. After a few weeks of recovery and a therapeutic intervention with the help of my AI, I feel able to respond. That’s a bit unfair, of course; the article itself is more nuanced than the loud cover, the image of a schoolkid with dull prompt questions, or the subtitle: “AI is conquering the schools, and educators fear a disaster.” The short answer to “Is AI making us dumb?” is: no. The long answer is more interesting, and even carries a preliminary glimmer of the spectacular. Unfortunately, it requires a detour into the sphere of artificial intelligence, into the mogul-field terrain of technology assessment, the attention economy, and the destructive virus of cultural pessimism. Along with narrowing the scope to AI’s effects on education and work rather than on intelligence. Because the honest version of the question would be: Does AI help us learn and work, or not? Generative AI, which set off the still-ongoing hype with ChatGPT, has only existed in relevant distribution since late 2022, early 2023. For a technology-driven transformation of people and society, that is extremely short. For that reason alone, research is still in its infancy. And technology assessment is not a fast discipline anyway. Prominent voices from Elizabeth Eisenstein to RAND to Tom Wheeler say we still cannot conclusively judge the consequences of the printing press. Its invention is a mere 580 years back, and some scholars would rather not circulate assessments that might have to be retracted in two or three hundred years. We’re Going Through Growing Pains A phenomenon that already caused upheaval in social media research makes serious assessment of AI’s consequences even harder: the “moving target” problem of LLM-ology, as the linguist Sean Trott called it in 2025. AI develops so quickly and so unpredictably that researchers often end up studying snapshots of the past. There are concepts, from morphological analysis to anticipatory governance, for keeping research, planning, and regulation halfway meaningful anyway. But even with those, universally valid statements are rare. DER SPIEGEL - The German View is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Subscribe We should therefore treat findings about the interplay between humans and AI as far more procedural and situational. Unfortunately, this challenge comes at the worst possible time. We are going through growing pains: AI’s everyday impact has grown very large very fast, and with it the longing for guidance. Annoyingly, the body of solid knowledge has not exploded along with it. Experts cannot be moved to broad consensus on even banal statements about AI. Sascha Lobo, born in 1975, is an author and strategy consultant focusing on the internet and digital technologies. Together with Jule Lobo, he explores the debates of the day in the podcast “Feel the News – Was Deutschland bewegt” (”What Moves Germany”). Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says software developers are dying out. Bill Gates considers coders one of only three professions that will survive the AI tsunami. Top tech economists find virtually irrefutable arguments both for and against an AI bubble. The same naturally applies to the structurally youth-hostile debate over whether AI is good or bad for young people. The gap between the demand for insight and the supply of solid knowledge creates an orientation vacuum. This vacuum of AI cluelessness is filled, as the attention economy described by Georg Franck in 1998 would have it, with half-knowledge (funnily enough, often AI-generated), marketing, and self-marketing. After all, infinite money is at stake, along with academia’s best current shot at global fame. But this iridescent froth of interpretation operates more by the algorithmic principles of the digital public sphere than by seriously earned insight. That is why dramatized, fear-feeding claims about AI are so promising. It tempts parts of academia into distorted drivel, and parts of the media then sensationalize the published drivel once more. Was the Research Aimed at a Desired Result? How badly this can influence academia and public perception is demonstrated by one of the most-discussed studies on AI’s effects: “Your Brain on ChatGPT.” The MIT study by Nataliya Kosmyna also gets plenty of space in the SPIEGEL cover story. What was measured and interpreted: lower brain activity in people who write with AI assistance, compared to people who only google or write without any tools. As is common with preprints, the study has not yet been peer-reviewed, and it contains substantial weaknesses that experts have sharply criticized. The first round had 54 participants in three groups, the second only 18, who reportedly also came from MIT’s own orbit. There was no preregistration (committing in advance to what you want to find out with which data). In their analysis, Stanković et al. even discovered an opposite effect that the study does not further explain. Some measurement data has not (yet) been published. And the EEG analysis method used is considered too imprecise to support such far-reaching conclusions. The biggest criticism, though, is the suspicion of an activism-driven study. In an interview with Time, lead author Kosmyna said she published the study immediately, rather than after full peer review, because she feared politicians might otherwise decide to put ChatGPT in kindergartens. She considers that absolutely harmful. It is legitimate to hold such a view. It just seems unscientific to approach a study with it, and then to design the setup so that the chance of a fitting desired result remains as high as possible. Ideologies Collide It is not easy to separate genuine AI insights from studies that trivialize and weaken well-founded AI criticism. The same goes for the opposing, AI-enthusiastic narratives, because the pro-AI side works against it with billions in resources. Ideologies collide, fed by egos, PR strategies, moral posturing, and once-in-a-lifetime opportunities. Doomsday marketing makes the search even harder: AI companies can profit from warnings about the dangers of AI, whether through the notoriety of apocalypse narratives or because, in some target groups, danger translates into power. Some seemingly negative findings are therefore quite welcome in the AI industry. If you try to get at the findings presumably less influenced by interest groups, the picture in education seems relatively clear: AI can improve educational outcomes when the right AI is used the right way, namely pedagogically. Simply dumping an AI chatbot into a classroom, by contrast, accomplishes little. Huge surprise. But something else is also obvious: whether they are allowed to or not, kids use AI for school, which is why the controlled integration of AI tools into education is, in the medium term, entirely without alternative. In the world of work, the landscape of findings is more complex and requires more differentiation. A series of serious studies points to an AI effect that suits neither the alarmists, regulation fetishists, and AI opponents, nor the trillion-dollar corporations with their armada of paid scientists, PR professionals, and ecosystems: working with AI helps the inexperienced (at least for now) considerably more than it helps the pros, in certain fields of work, and provided they know how to use it correctly. Missing Domain Knowledge Among the experienced, the professionals, and the high flyers, by contrast, despite frequent time savings, partially negative effects and new problems are emerging. Take the jagged frontier problem: AI solves task A brilliantly and fails completely at task B, even though both look similar even to professionals. Or the verification-cost problem, in which AI’s greater productivity gets eaten up by the enormous effort of checking its output. Or the illusion of competence, because AI makes new domains seem easily penetrable, until you painfully discover that deep domain knowledge is missing. Taken as a whole, the effects of working with AI do lean positive. But the promise that AI works as a turbocharger for everyone and boosts practically everything simply refuses to materialize. The AI magic the world has been feeling since ChatGPT arrived in late 2022 has so far barely shown up in most companies’ numbers. The consulting firm McKinsey has coined a term for this, the “gen AI paradox,” and believes that work processes and corporate structures would have to be rebuilt quite fundamentally to realize AI’s benefits at scale. Reuters just reported that only 3.3 percent of Microsoft’s customers have subscribed to the AI package Copilot. That may be down to the product; in other areas we continue to see soaring successes and new AI triumphs. But after the first quarter of 2026, disillusionment is the word for all too many AI projects at traditional companies: because the promised revolution of AI agents has so far failed to arrive or been postponed, and because of the leveling effect that many of the studies cited here suggest. Against Inequality The societal effects, on the other hand, appear rather encouraging. Many previous technologies operated on the Matthew principle, named for the Gospel verse about giving to those who already have: they tended to reward the more competent and more privileged. AI, however, seems more often to have an equalizing effect once a threshold of access and education is crossed. Some anecdotal insights point in this direction, for example, how an unemployed man in Leipzig successfully defended himself in court in 2025 against fraud accusations from Germany’s federal employment agency — without a lawyer, armed only with ChatGPT. The AI made mistakes and cited invented court rulings, but in the end the man walked away unpunished. And a key capability of artificial intelligence is its capacity to learn: set up correctly and fed with data, it can keep getting better. It is a question of time, or more precisely of AI innovations and training data, until even free AI chatbots write better legal briefs than law graduates with perfect exam scores. Whether that will make anyone dumb is something the world’s press will surely inform us of in due time. Subscribe Leave a comment
A massive asteroid hit the North Sea and triggered a 330-foot tsunami
A long-running debate about the Silverpit Crater beneath the North Sea has finally been resolved. Scientists now confirm it formed when a roughly 160-meter asteroid struck the seabed about 43–46 million years ago. New seismic imaging and rare shocked minerals in rock samples provided the crucial proof. The impact would have sent a massive plume skyward and unleashed a tsunami over 100 meters (330 feet) high.
‘Tsunami’ of Behavioral Health Challenges Amid OIG’s Anti-Psychotics Work Plan Seen Impacting QMs and Reimbursement in Nursing Homes
Nursing homes have only reached the tip of the iceberg when it comes to mental health challenges in the sector, with such challenges affecting quality
Ride a jet ski through a re-creation of an Alaska mega-tsunami with the help of science
The world’s second-tallest tsunami wave on record tore through the remote Tracy Arm fjord in Alaska last August, leaving immense destruction in its wake. Scientists have made it possible for you to experience the disaster from the safety of home
Vikings Given Clear Message After Massive Road Victory in Chicago
The Minnesota Vikings are off to a 2-0 start in 2026. Not only are they 2-0 on the year, but they’re also 2-0 in the NFC North. This positions them nicely for the rest of the year, as the division will certainly be a tight one.They’ve been riding the tsunami-sized wave of Brian Flores’ defense, […] The post Vikings Given Clear Message After Massive Road Victory in Chicago appeared first on HEAVY.
A NASA satellite caught a giant tsunami doing something no one expected
A Pacific-wide tsunami triggered by a magnitude 8.8 Kamchatka earthquake gave scientists their first detailed satellite view of a major tsunami in motion. The observations revealed unexpected wave behavior and helped uncover a larger earthquake rupture than earlier models predicted.
Remembering 1970 Britain — a cautionary tale
Well, if you listen to the polls and the political talking heads these days, in less than a month we will see a blue something sweep across the electoral map. Some say a blue wave and bolder predictors claim a blue tsunami is coming. Heck, I’ve even seen a prediction that Kansas might elect a […]
Business Ins and Outs: Sushi place, Round the Clock, Honey Jam, Jimmy John's, Dunkin' and Tsunami Express opening
Business Ins and Outs: Sushi place, Round the Clock, Honey Jam, Jimmy John's, Dunkin' and Tsunami Express opening
Space views to seafloors: Satellite discovery marks defining moment in
New research from the 2025 Kamchatka earthquake reveals hidden signals helping to improve seismic and tsunami hazard assessments.
Tracy Arm’s Post-Tsunami Landscape
A landslide-triggered tsunami stripped vegetation from the shore of the glacial fjord in summer 2025.
Vehicles damaged in West Allis car wash; business to pay for repairs
Four people say their vehicles were damaged at the Tsunami Express Car Wash in West Allis on Feb.10. They told Contact 6 their vehicles were scratched and two cars' back windows were smashed.
Hidden seismic signals hint at a tsunami threat in Alaska
Researchers studying a massive landslide in Alaska have detected strange seasonal seismic pulses caused by water freezing and thawing in rock cracks. These faint signals could become an important early clue to changes that might someday trigger a dangerous landslide-driven tsunami.
A Landslide in Alaska Set Off a Tsunami. There May Be More to Come.
Scientists say as glaciers retreat in a warming climate, landslide-generated tsunamis are likely to become more frequent.
Millions of jobs vulnerable as ‘silver tsunami’ looms over US small businesses, experts warn
Nearly half of U.S. small-business owners are 55 or older, and with many lacking succession plans, jobs and local economies could face disruptions in the coming decade, experts warn.
Kelly Loeffler warns of 'silver tsunami' as boomer business owners retire
U.S. Small Business Administrator Kelly Loeffler discusses the economic impact of the 'silver tsunami' on small businesses. She details how the agency supports millennials transitioning into skilled blue-collar trades.
A massive asteroid slammed into the North Sea and triggered a 330-foot tsunami
Scientists have finally confirmed the origin of the mysterious Silverpit Crater beneath the North Sea. New evidence shows that an asteroid about 160 meters wide struck the seabed roughly 43 to 46 million years ago. The impact triggered a tsunami more than 100 meters high and left behind a crater that geologists debated for years.
All I want for Christmas is for the Democrats to play identity politics the right way.
Ask any Democrats about their Christmas wish for the 2026 midterms, and they will tell you they want a blue tsunami that will clear the Republicans out of the House and Senate, and maybe even Presi…
Mapping tsunamis, building trust
While taking a quick shower before her son’s fourth birthday party on Dec. 26, 2004, tsunami scientist Elena Troshina heard the phone ring. Deciding it was worth jumping out, she
Alaska Science Forum: Mapping tsunamis, building trust
While taking a quick shower before her son’s fourth birthday party on Dec. 26, 2004, tsunami scientist Elena Troshina heard the phone ring. Deciding it was worth jumping out, she picked it up — with kids, you never know.
Business Ins and Outs: Sushi place, Round the Clock, Honey Jam, Jimmy John's, Dunkin' and Tsunami Express opening
Business Ins and Outs: Sushi place, Round the Clock, Honey Jam, Jimmy John's, Dunkin' and Tsunami Express opening
Nevada’s Gen X and Baby Boom generations outnumber youngest residents
Generational demographics suggest Nevada could be dealing with a “Silver Tsunami” of more older adults, testing demand on on the state’s health and long-term care systems.
La Palma Mega-Tsunami Hype Collapses Under New Science
A viral theory claims it could devastate the East Coast, but experts aren't convinced.
A NASA satellite caught a giant tsunami doing something scientists didn’t expect
When a huge earthquake struck near Kamchatka, the SWOT satellite captured an unprecedented, high-resolution view of the resulting tsunami as it crossed the Pacific. The data revealed the waves were far more complex and scattered than scientists expected, overturning the idea that large tsunamis travel as a single, stable wave. Ocean sensors confirmed the quake’s rupture was longer than earlier models suggested. Together, the findings could reshape how tsunamis are modeled and predicted.
Louisiana’s industrial sector has never faced more crosscurrents
It has been a bipolar year for Louisiana’s industrial complex, reports 10/12 Industry Report in its spring issue. The elation over a tsunami of new investments, lower tax rates and softening regulations has been dampened in many ways by ever-changing tariffs, consistently high interest rates and across-the-board inflation. That’s causing the price tags of many […]
Scientists to probe the source behind a massive 1946 tsunami
Eighty years ago, a massive tsunami devastated parts of Hawaii, Alaska, Washington and Oregon following an earthquake off the coast of Alaska. A Michigan State University team is launching a project to ...
Elizabeth Warren says ‘frenzy’ of mergers under Trump could be reversed
Senator warns of ‘tsunami of anger’ against big companies and suggests future administrations may undo key deals
What to know about the Kelvin wave raising the sea level along the West Coast
Kelvin waves are not like tsunamis, and they don't curl over and crash on the beach. A better image is water sloshing in the bathtub or a swimming pool during an earthquake. In the ocean, they are bulges of water that lift the sea level as they move along the coast.
'Silver tsunami' of retiring business owners leaves Main Streets at a crossroads
Michigan still adds more businesses than it loses, but business is slowing down as nearly 1 in 4 proprietors reach retirement age.
Business Ins and Outs: Sushi place, Round the Clock, Honey Jam, Jimmy John's, Dunkin' and Tsunami Express opening
Business Ins and Outs: Sushi place, Round the Clock, Honey Jam, Jimmy John's, Dunkin' and Tsunami Express opening
Zelenskyy accuses Trump of pressuring Ukraine to ‘capitulate’
The Ukrainian leader warns of a ‘tsunami’ of risks as Ukraine-US tensions escalate
A 2025 Alaskan tsunami was one of the largest on record, new research finds
A tsunami that rocked an Alaskan fjord in 2025 was the second largest ever recorded and formed a standing wave that sloshed for a day.
Investment and Statecraft: The International Politics of Sovereign Wealth Funds - Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
In 1953, Kuwait established the world’s first sovereign wealth fund to invest the country’s oil revenues and generate returns that would reduce its reliance on a single resource. Since then, over 100 separate funds have been created to preserve national wealth and ensure long-term fiscal sustainability. Today, they manage over $10 trillion in global assets. In this discussion with GJIA, political economist Kathryn Lavelle explains the increasingly novel dynamics that surround fund behavior and what the world can come to expect from their growing presence in international financial markets. GJIA: When it comes to the roles sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) play in global markets and politics, what would you say makes them unique? Kathryn Lavelle: Sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) operate on behalf of governments as investors. That in itself is a strange relationship. Within them, a core contest takes place between the state’s interests (or sovereign) part of the dynamic, and the money interests (or wealth) part of it, and these two aspects are frequently in contradiction, serving fundamentally different goals. SWFs are also quite fascinating because when you talk to the people who manage these funds, they have an interest in convincing you that the decisions are made almost exclusively on a financial basis—they really will go to great lengths to differentiate their government owners and those who make the management decisions. At the same time, these people ultimately answer to someone in power. Therefore, for most SWFs, it remains deeply unclear who is actually making the investment decisions and for what purposes. Of course, it is not always clear how other vehicles, such as hedge funds and private equity make the decisions they do, but I think what a lot of people find particularly disconcerting about SWFs is that they seem to act on behalf of people who have a different identity from their own. People who could be trying to manipulate politics and markets in a way that would have a long-term effect on their own populations. Regular investors come and go at will, and they only share an interest in profit as far as most of us understand. However, SWFs have that extra “sovereign” part right behind them that obscures their true interest. GJIA: These funds can be found in countries all across the globe, in both authoritarian states and democracies. Would you say SWFs differ in their goals and structures between regime-type? KL: It is not necessarily regime type that makes the goals and structures of SWFs different. It has to do with their economies. Let’s look at a country like China. There’s going to be a debate about exactly how to characterize the regime, but it is a country with many different kinds of sovereign wealth funds, and a particularly opaque state connection to each. At one time, some of the state-owned Chinese oil companies created specialized investment vehicles listed outside Chinese markets that excluded parts of the firms that were more associated with human rights violations. At the same time, the China Investment Corporation (CIC)—China’s largest SWF—draws a lot of concern, not necessarily because of its investment activities, but because of the dynamics of global politics. So, I wouldn’t really tie differences to regime types themselves in a wholesale way, but rather to how such funds are perceived and how they are structured. Saudi Arabia’s SWF is getting all kinds of attention for its involvement in Hollywood, and this takes me right back to when I was a student in the 1980s, when people were concerned about Japanese investment entities buying assets in Hollywood. They aren’t quite the same in financial terms, but it’s the same kind of concern about foreign investment that drives people to be suspicious, and the whole idea that “foreigners are influencing Hollywood.” This holds true across industries, and it reflects where politics are in places like the United States right now. One metric we can try to look at is transparency, where all the funds will tell you, “we are transparent.” The problem you’ll keep running into with this approach is how you value things. When trying to do comparative studies of equity markets, you’ll find that every country doesn’t use Generally Accepted Accounting Principles like we do in the United States. A fund may appear opaque politically and not want people to show what they’re invested in or what their intent with that investment is, but they could also just not be able to report it because of the way it was purchased, or the kinds of shares they purchased. There are some assets out there that really are difficult to put a monetary value on. GJIA: To what extent do domestic politics shape SWF behavior in both the investing “home” country and the recipient “host” country? KL: This depends on the type of fund present and also on the extent to which voters’ political views are able to influence the fund. For example, in a democratic home state like Norway, the SWF doesn’t invest in nuclear weapons or tobacco because of social concerns, but there is a continuing debate over whether it should invest in oil, even though that’s where most of the money comes from. The degree to which Norway will continue to make those investments, and whether they contradict the government’s overall climate goals, is an open question in Norwegian politics. Because of the way the fund’s governance is structured, it may not be easy to resolve. On the other hand, some people consider pension funds, like the State Teachers Retirement System (STRS) in Ohio, to be quasi-SWF. They have a very strict separation between the people who make up the management division and the fund owners. No teacher or professor would want to invest in things that may harm the future of their students. At the same time, a fund manager might see an opportunity in a diversified multinational corporation that offers a good return, despite it deriving part of its revenue from e-cigarettes. These contests are very apparent. Domestic politics can work in host countries too. A good example is Singapore’s SWF, Temasek, investing in Thailand’s telecommunications sector. If you study political economy, you already know that countries everywhere are uncomfortable with foreign ownership of their telecom sectors because a foreign entity could monitor or manipulate our communications with each other. In the case of Temasek, there was significant pushback from Thai citizens surrounding the deal, which went on to influence national political sentiment toward Singapore as a whole, underscoring the risks some SWFs may face with their investment choices. In this case, fund behavior led to the dissolution of the entire Thai government in 2006 and a subsequent coup d’état. GJIA: To address some of this unease, the Santiago Principles were established in 2009 to ostensibly promote trust and transparency. From your perspective, have these mechanisms actually changed fund behavior? KL: In international relations theory, we always like to have a clear set of norms and best practices—the orientation we want the proverbial ship to be going in. In that regard, the Santiago Principles at least got the discussion going about which direction SWFs should take at a time when people were very skittish about the growing size of these funds. Nobody wanted them to be out there and potentially destabilizing economies, so talks about disclosure, conditions for withdrawal, and the independence of managers were helpful when initiated. The biggest stumbling block was that there wasn’t exactly a good way to measure compliance with the Principles, let alone how to hold funds to them. If you read the Principles, they’re overall quite vague. In general, a fund doesn’t want to reveal how and why they make certain investment decisions because that information is proprietary—a fund makes money off of how and why it makes decisions—so how do you reconcile that with loosely-defined ideas of openness? Some decisions might have a political purpose. The bottom line is that trying to figure out and assign a score to compliance is not easy, and it is therefore the reason why the Santiago Principles never really got off the ground to the point where they could truly direct fund behavior. GJIA: Many emerging markets are looking to build their own SWFs from mineral and oil revenues. Historically, have funds shaped development trajectories in these countries? KL: I think the big story in international emerging markets investment is that the investment is increasingly no longer unidirectional. In the past multinational corporations of primarily Western background were the main form of foreign direct investment in a country. That has changed dramatically, to the point where you have companies from so-called “developing countries” taking over companies in the United States. Therefore, the landscape of international investment has changed, and I think SWFs are certainly a possibility to be the next step in the game. Historically, you didn’t need an entire financial vehicle to reinvest commodity revenues in your country, but as emerging markets get more financially sophisticated, their capacity to operate such funds has increased. SWFs would allow treasuries to move from relying on holding foreign exchange assets like cash or government bonds to having broader financial markets and targeted growth areas, while easing pressure on welfare expenditures. GJIA: With their increasing financial weight, do you see the presence of SWFs being a factor in the political choices leaders will have to make with regard to domestic and foreign policy? KL: It will depend on just how big the funds get. One of the reasons people are already apprehensive is because of their scale, and if certain SWFs in certain countries achieve a large-enough size, the presence will absolutely be cause for concern. The other factor political leaders will have to consider are their objectives. It’s not always clear how to define a SWF, or even where its activity is concentrated, but it is certainly a worry from the perspective of national security of opaque external investment. More than that, I think one of the most interesting questions going forward is whether the United States, the home to the world’s largest financial markets, will develop its own fund, for which the Trump administration announced a plan. There have also been several proposals in Congress. Were it to come into being, it would have tremendous weight. At the same time, one of the hallmarks of U.S. capitalism is a lack of government ownership of shares, so it would not be clear how such a fund would be received in domestic politics, or which direction it would take. Given how politically fragmented the country is, a Democratic administration would likely be concerned about different sectors of the economy, such as healthcare, and want investment there, rather than a Republican administration, which might prefer defense industries. No investment vehicle could thrive under conditions of such instability. Moreover, it remains unclear where the money to fund a theoretical U.S. SWF would come from. It would be a fundamentally different entity depending on whether it is financed with debt, economic surplus, commodities, or the sale of state companies, as in the case of Singapore. If it is debt, or government borrowing of some form, then the fund would have to outperform whatever the cost of that debt is, which is not an easy thing to do. I think our political leaders have enough on their plate. Our system has worked well keeping political and investment functions generally separate. We have seen different forms of business rise and fall, and even the perception of different countries, all of which funds are tied to. Unless a major SWF either starts—like in the case of the United States—or collapses—an issue that concerns the Saudis, I don’t see any political tsunamis on the horizon. . . . Kathryn Lavelle is the Ellen and Dixon Long Professor of World Affairs at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland, Ohio. Her research explores the exchange between domestic and international and political institutions with a particular emphasis on political economy and multilateralism. Dr. Lavelle’s first book, The Politics of Equity Finance in Emerging Markets, explored the political circumstances that surround large issues of stock in the developing world. After being granted tenure at Case Western, she was awarded an American Political Science Association Congressional Fellowship and named the William A. Steiger fellow, a designation given to the most promising political scientist in her class of fellows. While in Washington during 2006-2007, she worked on the staff of the House Committee on Financial Services on issues related to domestic and international monetary policy. Dr. Lavelle holds a PhD in political science from Northwestern University; an M.A. in government and foreign affairs from the University of Virginia; and a bachelor’s degree in international economics from Georgetown University. She is a permanent member of the New York Council on Foreign Relations. This transcript has been lightly edited for clarity and length. Interview conducted by Sid Mehrotra. Image Credit: Jason Leung, Unsplash Content Licenses, via Unsplash
Amazon delivery companies to lay off more than 100
San Francisco is totally unprepared for the coming wealth tsunami.
Healthcare Freefall: AI arms race hits rural healthcare as hospitals fight to keep up
Editor’s Note: Colorado’s healthcare system is entering a period of accelerating instability — a “tsunami,” as multiple leaders describe it — driven by collapsing hospital finances, shrinking Medicaid reimbursements, disappearing services and a political fight over who is responsible for this unraveling. Healthcare Freefall is a multipart series examining how Colorado arrived at this moment, […]
Tracking tsunamis triggered by extreme weather
As much of Western Europe faced record-breaking temperatures and extended drought this summer, Croatia experienced another weather event that could also set a worrisome precedent.Over the course of two weeks, a series of meteorological tsunamis (meteotsunamis) struck Croatia’s Adriatic coast, alarming both residents and tourists. Social media posts showed flooded seaside promenades and people walking through knee-deep water. Fortunately, no deaths or major damage were reported.In a world where natural disasters seem to be increasing, meteotsunamis — tsunamis caused by rapid weather changes – rarely make headline news. But warming sea temperatures and changing atmospheric conditions may help explain why these phenomena could become more common, especially in shallower seas and inland lakes with wide coastal shelves.“We have definitely become more aware of them, and there have been a lot more reports of these events in the last 10 years,” says Jadranka Šepić, an associate professor of environmental physics at the University of Split whose research focuses on efforts to track meteotsunamis in real time. She is also one of Croatia’s ambassadors for Science Comes to Town (SCTT), a European Commission-funded programme aimed at making research more accessible to the public.Šepić sees two possible reasons for the apparent increase in meteotsunamis. One is that photos and videos shared on social media are providing more empirical evidence, while rising air and sea temperatures could also play a role. The geophysicist “cannot say with certainty” that warming is a contributing factor because research is still ongoing. “But I can say that previously in Croatia we might have had one exceptionally strong event every 10 or 15 years, and one strong event every five years, and within 15 days this summer we had five strong events,” Šepić notes. “This is not typical.”‘A fist against the sea surface’Unlike tsunamis that are triggered by underwater earthquakes or volcanoes, meteotsunamis are caused by sudden changes in atmospheric pressure combined with other rapidly developing weather events, such as thunderstorms. The effect “is like pushing a fist against the sea surface,” Šepić explains. The resulting oscillation intensifies as it reaches shallower water, and “can be far more destructive than a wind-driven wave because meteotsunamis are accompanied by very strong currents than can penetrate much deeper inland.” The meteotsunami, she continues, “then behaves the same as a tsunami — they slow down and grow as the sea shallows, and then grow further in places like harbours due to further shallowing and narrowing. When they come ashore, they can be very destructive — taking everything with them out to sea and then taking it back.”Croatian research institutions have tracked such sea oscillations since the 1930s because the relatively shallow Adriatic Sea is prone to meteotsunamis. The strongest recorded so far was in June 1978, according to the Adriatic Meteotsunami Catalogue, which is supported by the European Research Council (ERC), Croatian Science Foundation and the country’s leading research institutions. During that event, six-metre-high waves flooded the coastal town of Vela Luka on Korčula Island, causing major damage.Other meteotsunami “hotspots” in Europe include the Mediterranean Sea as well the Atlantic coastal shelves off France, Portugal and Spain. In June 2006, a meteotsunami with five-metre-high waves swept through the harbour of Ciutadella in Spain’s Balearic Islands, causing widespread damage to boats. Several less powerful events were reported in the Balearics and off the coast of Spain this summer, leading to some beach closures.Forecasting is challenging because of how quickly meteotsunamis can develop and their uncertain trajectory. Šepić is involved in two ERC-funded research projects — SHExtreme and MeD-Track — aimed in part at strengthening monitoring and real-time data collection. Access to accurate and immediate information is essential for early-warning systems.Early exposure to meteotsunamisŠepić first learned about meteotsunamis from her parents while growing up in Croatia. She later had the opportunity to investigate these events during her master and doctoral studies in geophysics at the University of Zagreb. The geophysicist has also conducted research at the Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries in Split, the University of the Balearic Islands in Palma de Mallorca and the Institute of Ocean Science in the Canadian province of British Columbia.Projects like SCTT are important to raise awareness about research and inspiring young people to pursue studies and careers in science, notes Šepić. She credits her colleagues at the University of Split and the Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries for their community outreach and engagement in the European project, which includes partner universities and institutions in Brest (France) and Kiel (Germany). As an example of town-gown collaboration, Šepić highlights her own university’s ‘Oceanographers on the Island’ programme. This initiative offers workshops and hands-on learning for children living on numerous Croatian islands.“It is a great privilege for Split to be involved in a project like Science Comes to Town, which is the first of its kind in the European Union," Šepić says. As for encouraging new generations of scientists, “This is a great effort, and I hope that we will see an effect in a few years.”Science|Business, which connects policymakers, academics and industry through its news reporting, analysis and events, is an SCTT partner.
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