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Dodgers Provide Positive Update on Klein
Will Klein underwent a procedure to remove bone chips from his elbow, but the Los Angeles Dodgers expect the right-handed reliever to be ready for Spring Training.
Why Brewers Must Put May on World Series Roster
Despite recent struggles, the veteran reliever brings the only championship ring to the Milwaukee Brewers clubhouse.
Analyzing the Atlanta Braves' Bullpen Standing Heading Into the Offseason
The Braves have three key relievers set to hit the free agent market this offseason.
Dodgers Face Difficult Decision With Vesia
Alex Vesia has been a dependable high-leverage reliever for the Los Angeles Dodgers, but his sustained success could make him more difficult to retain as he enters free agency.
Revisiting Brewers' Adames Trade Which Included Rays' Rasmussen
The Milwaukee Brewers transformed their infield with a midseason swap, but the Tampa Bay Rays struck gold by turning a struggling reliever into a dominant ace.
Three Free Agent Relievers Who Could Fix Tigers’ Bullpen
The free agent relievers class is both strong and deep this off-season. That's great news for a Detroit Tigers team that struggled in high-leverage situations late in games, blowing 68 leads en route to a disappointing fourth-place finish in the American League Central. Those 68 blown leads are both a franchise and Major League Baseball …
Dodgers’ Free Agent Sends Heartfelt Message to Fans
Los Angeles Dodgers free agent reliever Alex Vesia sent a message to Dodger fans before heading into free agency this offseason. Vesia played all but five games of his MLB career thus far with the Dodgers, spending his last six MLB seasons in Los Angeles. He has a 2.66 ERA through 367 games with the […] The post Dodgers’ Free Agent Sends Heartfelt Message to Fans appeared first on LA Sports Report.
Yankees news: Bombers showed past interest in Padres’ reliever
Yankees eyed Jeremiah Estrada in the past; third base remains a problem; which free agents are likely to return?
Padres' 2.83 ERA reliever gets huge $90M contract prediction
This veteran Padres reliever might be in store for a huge contract this winter.
Phillies re-sign former Yankees, Blue Jays veteran reliever
The Phillies make their first offseason roster move.
Padres All-Star Reliever Makes Feelings Clear About Free Agency
Jason Adam wants to remain with the San Diego Padres as he approaches free agency, and the veteran reliever believes his injury-shortened 2026 season could affect his asking price.
Grades for the Cardinals Bullpen in 2026
Over the last two seasons, the St. Louis Cardinals’ bullpen has been a bright spot, logging a 3.64 ERA in 2024 (7th in MLB) and a 3.74 ERA in 2025 (10th). But that wasn’t the case in 2026. St. Louis relievers fell to the bottom third of the league, finishing 22nd in ERA (4.46). They …
Could Orioles' Félix Bautista Return to Form?
The 31-year-old reliever posted a 16.20 ERA in two games this season after recovering from a shoulder surgery that sidelined him for 14 months.
Reds Bullpen Outlook: Which Relievers Will Return in 2027?
After a dismal season in the divisional basement, Cincinnati faces pivotal contract decisions for veteran arms like Emilio Pagan and Brock Burke to rebuild a struggling bullpen.
Angels Reliever Gets Big Strikeouts In Instructional League
The Los Angeles Angels went big when the drafted reliever Chase Shores out of LSU.
A 2.96 ERA Reliever the Tigers Can Actually Afford
Detroit needs someone who can hold a lead, and Arizona is about to lose exactly that. #Tigers
Dodgers World Series Hero Klein Makes Final NLDS Roster Push
Reliever Will Klein battles back from right elbow surgery to secure a last-minute spot in the Los Angeles Dodgers’ postseason bullpen this year.
A wild playoff day in 2 sports. Plus: NHL’s No. 1 pick debuts
Good morning! A lot happened yesterday. Inside: ⚾ Postseason = on 🏀 Top seed = out 🏒 Puck = dropped The Postseason: Six stats from a massive day October started on Sept. 29 this year. All four of MLB’s best-of-three Wild Card Series got underway yesterday. Here’s a key number from each of them: 71.5 percent: The Phillies’ win probability in Game 1 against the Braves when Austin Riley, the Atlanta third baseman who had the worst season of his career, came to the plate against lights-out reliever
Rafael Flores Jr. Has Earned the Pirates’ Starting Catcher Role
Many were critical of the Pittsburgh Pirates when they traded All-Star closer David Bednar to the New York Yankees at the 2025 trade deadline. Not only was Bednar a fan favorite, but a quality closer, and the return looked light compared to other relievers who were traded at the time. However, the headliner of the …
Braves Reliever Reflects on Return After Long-Awaited Comeback
After three months sidelined, Robert Suarez provides a crucial bullpen boost as October nears.
Padres cut ties with 4.18 ERA sidewinding reliever
San Diego had to make space for a veteran arm.
Guardians beat Red Sox, 3-2, helping them atop AL Central
Nathaniel Lowe had a tiebreaking sacrifice fly off reliever Erik Miller in the ninth inning, and the Cleveland Guardians maintained their slim first-place lead in the AL Central with a 3-2 victory over the Boston Red Sox on Tuesday night.
Struggling Red Sox reliever: Patience ‘definitely running thin’
Red Sox reliever Erik Miller is trying to stay patient, but it’s not easy. “It’s definitely running thin at this point."
Cincinnati Reds Recall Reliever for Season's Final Road Trip
The Reds recalled Connor Phillips from Triple-A and placed Tony Santillan on the injured list on Tuesday.
Phillies Relievers Respond To Don Mattingly’s Confounding Bullpen Management
The Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen offered a response on the interim manager’s odd decision to put extra wear on their arms.
MLB awards check-in: Front-runners for MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year and Reliever of the Year
Dodgers Face Sasaki Decision After Encouraging Live Session
Roki Sasaki’s recovery forces a strategic crossroads for Los Angeles Dodgers manager Dave Roberts: deploy the flamethrower as a high-leverage reliever or vital rotation insurance.
Brewers cut ties with former Cubs, Mets 3.84 ERA reliever
The Brewers are making a notable adjustment in the bullpen.
Miller Names Morejon As Most Valuable Reliever In Baseball
Mason Miller gets most of the accolades in the San Diego Padres bullpen, but he thinks another reliever is valuable.
Braves Get Encouraging Update on Key Reliever Before Playoff Push
Huge reinforcement could be on the way soon for Atlanta's bullpen.
Atlanta Braves Should Diminish Their Trust In Southpaw Reliever
Considering Dylan Lee has pitched significantly worse since the All-Star break, the Braves should be cautious of how they utilize him.
Royals claim pitcher Spencer Bivens off waivers
The groundball reliever could get a look.
Washington Nationals Send Struggling Pitcher to Minor League
The Washington Nationals have sent reliever Clayton Beeter to Triple A Rochester after struggling through 2026
Better Late Than Never: Rays 3, Astros 1
The Rays are back in the postseason for the first time since 2023 as the club rallied late against one of the better relievers in baseball in the 9th to walk off the Astros 3-1. This game was two hours and twenty-two minutes long, but the 9th inning was the main event. Through the first […]
Dodgers Still Weigh Two Very Different Paths for Sasaki’s Return
As a nagging right middle finger blister heals, the Los Angeles Dodgers must decide if Roki Sasaki serves the postseason run best as a high-intensity reliever or a stabilized rotation anchor.
Former Angels, Braves 5.60 ERA reliever released by Athletics
The left-hander has pitched for three MLB teams in 2026.
Angels Dominated By Skenes In 1-0 Loss To Pirates
The Los Angeles Angels lost to the Pittsburgh Pirates as they were shut down by Paul Skenes and a quartet of relievers.
Rays Reacts Results: August’s MVP
As we turn the page to September, we must take a moment to acknowledge the performance of these AL East leading Rays, and to do so we asked in this week’s poll who the top performer was in August. The choice was a difficult one! Among the five players suggested, only reliever Kevin Kelly did […]
Guardians Bring Back Rookie Reliever in New Roster Moves
The Cleveland Guardians add Daniel Espino back to the MLB roster.
Reliever Joel Kuhnel claimed
Giants pitchers get hurt so they get new ones; but, it sounds like they’re just feeding pitchers to hitters.
Yankees Have ‘Most Underrated Reliever in the American League’
The New York Yankees are a franchise filled with big names.The legends of yesteryear need no introductions, and neither do many of this season’s superstars. Think guys like Aaron Judge, Gerrit Cole, Max Fried and even Ben Rice. At this point, everyone knows them.That’s not the case for one of the most important pitchers the […] The post Yankees Have ‘Most Underrated Reliever in the American League’ appeared first on HEAVY.
Yankees news: Max Fried set to return tonight against Red Sox
Fried expected to start Saturday’s nightcap; Yankees checking in on relievers after Cruz injury.
Yankees Get Devastating Fernando Cruz Injury News During Astros Series
The New York Yankees got a devastating update concerning reliever Fernando Cruz. Yankee manager Aaron Boone told MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch that Cruz is seeking second opinions after imaging revealed a partially torn UCL in his right elbow. Fernando Cruz has a partial tear of his right UCL. He is seeking second opinions but surgery is […] The post Yankees Get Devastating Fernando Cruz Injury News During Astros Series appeared first on HEAVY.
Yankees’ Option Reliever Bradley Hanner To Triple A
As a corresponding move to the Yankees activating Elmer Rodriguez ahead of tonight’s game, in which he will be the starting pitcher, the Yankees have optioned right-handed relief pitcher Bradley Hanner back to Triple-A Scranton Wilkes-Barre, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post.Hanner is 29 years old, listed at 6’4 210 lbs. The journeyman […] The post Yankees’ Option Reliever Bradley Hanner To Triple A appeared first on HEAVY.
Yankees sign All-Star reliever amid Fernando Cruz injury news
The Yankees made a few notable roster moves before tonight's game.
Edwin Diaz Will Have to Earn Back Dodgers Closer Role
Dodgers reliever Edwin Diaz was signed to be the team's closer, but when he comes back from the injured list, he will not be in that role.
Yankees sign ex-Guardians, Cubs reliever after DFA from Royals
The Yankees have added a new reliever.
Yankees Sound Alarm on Reliever’s Heavy Workload
The New York Yankees didn’t add a meaningful relief pitcher at the MLB trade deadline in part because they believe in relievers like Brent Headrick. But even though Headrick has been excellent as one of the Yankees’ best high-leverage relievers, his heavy usage is of some concern to the team. Headrick has a 1.55 ERA […] The post Yankees Sound Alarm on Reliever’s Heavy Workload appeared first on HEAVY.
Ex-Cubs Pitcher Finds New Home With Division Rival
Ex-Chicago Cubs reliever Josh Fleming didn’t have to wait too long to find a new home. The left-hander agreed to a minor league deal with the St. Louis Cardinals, per the St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Derrick Goold. #stlcards are signing Josh Fleming, a lefty, to a minor-league deal and he’s heading to Class AAA Memphis. He […] The post Ex-Cubs Pitcher Finds New Home With Division Rival appeared first on HEAVY.
This Pirates Pitcher Continues to Be Key Bullpen Piece
Mason Montgomery has become an important part of the Pittsburgh Pirates' reliever core.
Yankees Get Brent Headrick News Amid Quietly Historic Season
New York Yankees reliever Brent Headrick could set the franchise record for total appearances this year. The post Yankees Get Brent Headrick News Amid Quietly Historic Season appeared first on HEAVY.
Dodgers news: Blake Treinen shares pivotal injury update
Dodgers reliever Blake Treinen talked to reporters after his live session, where he expressed his optimism about his return
Yankees news: Giancarlo Stanton runs bases as rehab continues
Stanton getting close; Yanks get $2.6 billion investment; Gil at Hudson Valley; veteran reliever released at Triple-A
Yankees release veteran reliever who pitched for Tigers last season
Rafael Montero appeared in 20 games for the Tigers in 2025.
Yankees Named Offseason Trade Suitor for Superstar Closer
The New York Yankees made some notable moves ahead of the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline. They made some upgrades to their roster, as they brought in infielder Luis Garcia Jr. from the Washington Nationals and outfielder Heliot Ramos from the San Francisco Giants. They also traded reliever Camilo Doval to the Pittsburgh Pirates after he […] The post Yankees Named Offseason Trade Suitor for Superstar Closer appeared first on HEAVY.
MLB Trade: Chicago Cubs Acquiring Angels’ 3-Year MLB Reliever
After their nixed trade with the Los Angeles Angels for Reid Detmers, which has not been confirmed yet, the Chicago Cubs are back on the board with a meaningful move. According to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, the Cubs are acquiring RHP Ryan Zeferjahn from the Angels. Passan wrote: “The Chicago Cubs are acquiring right-handed reliever Ryan […] The post MLB Trade: Chicago Cubs Acquiring Angels’ 3-Year MLB Reliever appeared first on HEAVY.
Pirates acquire star reliever Luke Weaver from New York Mets
The Pirates have finally acquired an impactful reliever for the back of their bullpen.
Cubs acquire reliever Ryan Zeferjahn from Angels for Moisés Ballesteros
The Cubs made a big move to shore up the back of their bullpen with a hard-throwing right-hander.
Angels trade Ryan Zeferjahn to Cubs
The Angels continue their fire sale by trading their best reliever to the Cubs.
Phillies add batting champ Arraez, reliever Raley in pair of deadline deals
The Phillies pulled off a couple of trades Monday morning as the 6 p.m. deadline for making deals approached.
Cubs Minor League Wrap: Pelicans shut out Charleston, 6-0
Two relievers rehab with Iowa. South Bend and Myrtle Beach win.
Luis Castillo traded to White Sox: Mariners starter to bolster Chicago rotation hanging on to division lead
Reliever Seranthony Dominguez, outfielder Nolan Jones and catcher prospect Boston Smith are headed back to Seattle
Minnesota Twins Officially Enter Buy-Mode, Strike Trade With Mets
The Twins and New York Mets agreed to a deal late Thursday night for left-handed reliever A.J. Minter.
Health experts give warning about popular fidget toy ‘Needoh’
A popular fidget toy is keeping little hands busy, but there are a few things to be mindful of to make sure the kid-friendly toy remains a stress reliever.
Cardinals’ Demote Promising Starter, Recall Veteran Reliever Before Cubs Game
The St. Louis Cardinals are demoting right-handed pitcher Hunter Dobbins to Triple-A Memphis. In a corresponding move, the team has selected the contract of Peter Strzlecki. Dobbins, 26, was acquired from the Boston Red Sox this past offseason. As it stands, he has a 3.74 ERA through his first 33.2 innings for the Cardinals. This season, Dobbins […] The post Cardinals’ Demote Promising Starter, Recall Veteran Reliever Before Cubs Game appeared first on HEAVY.
How valuable is a good reliever?
Let’s use Keider Montero as a case study in team building and pitcher value.
Dodgers Trade Acquisition Dominant Through 2 Triple-A Outings
The Los Angeles Dodgers traded for right-handed reliever Seth Halvorsen last week, and he is already impressing in Triple-A.
Phillies Reportedly Open to Bringing Back Blue Jays' Reliever
The Philadelphia Phillies are reportedly open to bringing back Toronto Blue Jays pitcher.
Pirates Trade for Veteran Reliever, DFA Dennis Santana
The Pirates reshaped their bullpen Thursday, acquiring Ron Marinaccio from the Padres and designating Dennis Santana for assignment.
ESPN connecting Mariners to Astros' star trade chips is pure escapist entertainment
The Mariners need a quality reliever and right-handed bat, but it's tough to see the Astros being willing to do business with their main divisional rivals.
Astros Trade RP Nate Pearson to Royals
Today, the Houston Astros announced they have traded reliever Nate Pearson to the Kansas City Royals in exchange for righthanded pitching prospect Max Martin. Martin, 22, has posted a 6-2 record with a 2.01 ERA in 26 relief appearances across two levels of Class A ball in the Royals system this season. Martin was a […]
Astros Trade RP Nate Pearson to Royals
Today, the Houston Astros announced they have traded reliever Nate Pearson to the Kansas City Royals in exchange for righthanded pitching prospect Max Martin. Martin, 22, has posted a 6-2 record with a 2.01 ERA in 26 relief appearances across two levels of Class A ball in the Royals system this season. Martin was a […]
Jose Caballero's "routine'' sparks Yankees-Pirates bench clearer
Pirates' reliever Dennis Santana's overreaction to Jose Caballero's habitual, but legal, stall tactics at the plate led to an eighth inning incident.
Should Rangers Pursue Struggling Yankees Reliever?
The New York Yankees aren't traditional sellers, but they have a reliever in Camilo Doval who's been named a fit for the Texas Rangers.
Dodgers make first trade deadline move, pick up injured reliever Seth Halvorsen from Rockies
MLB Bans AI Dugout Tech After Ottavino Alert
MLB blocks AI on dugout iPads to stop strategy cheating, a move former reliever Adam Ottavino helped trigger.
Reds Draft Seminoles P Brodie Purcell in the 12th Round
Cincinnati continues its Florida State pipeline, snagging the hard-throwing reliever after a dominant season featuring 58 strikeouts and a stingy .207 opponent batting average for the Seminoles.
Nationals part ways with former Yankees 14.73 ERA reliever
The left-hander lasted just three games with the Nationals.
Yankees’ Aaron Boone Makes Feelings Clear After Another Comeback Win
The New York Yankees trailed the Washington Nationals 2-0 heading into the eighth inning on Saturday afternoon. For seven innings, the lineup had barely made a dent against bulk reliever Miles Mikolas and the Washington pitching staff. The at-bats were there. The results were not.Then the eighth inning arrived, and the Yankees hit three home […] The post Yankees’ Aaron Boone Makes Feelings Clear After Another Comeback Win appeared first on HEAVY.
Recent Chicago Cubs Pitcher Recalled By New Team
A recent Chicago Cubs right-handed reliever is hoping to revive his MLB career after being recalled by his new team. The post Recent Chicago Cubs Pitcher Recalled By New Team appeared first on HEAVY.
Padres Unsurprisingly Place Key Reliever In All-Star Game
The San Diego Padres will only have one player in the All-Star game, and it's closer Mason Miller.
Aroldis Chapman breaks MLall-time strikeout record among relievers
The Red Sox closer broke a tie with Hoyt Wilhelm for the top of the career leaderboard.
Aroldis Chapman breaks MLB all-time strikeout record among relievers
The Red Sox closer broke a tie with Hoyt Wilhelm for the top of the career leaderboard.
Giants-Rockies Series Preview: KABOOM?
The Rockies relievers were better than the Giants relievers in June. Low bar or sign of another tough NL West series?
Cubs BCB After Dark: Who is the Cubs’ best reliever?
The late-night/early-morning spot for Cubs fans asks who is the best reliever in the bullpen right now.
Report: Astros to Call Up RP Miguel Ullola
The Houston Astros are calling up pitching prospect Miguel Ullola, according to a report from Chandler Rome of The Athletic. Ullola, 24, is ranked as the Astros #11 prospect per MLB.com. Ullola was converted to a reliever this season in an effort to help him with his command issues and be someone the team could […]
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
Former MLB GM Shares Answer To Yankees' Bullpen Woes
The New York Yankees have a clear need in the bullpen, but the team may not have to acquire one through a trade. New York addressed its bullpen at last year's trade deadline, acquiring the likes of David Bednar and Camilo Doval among other relievers. However, Doval has struggled this season, so the ...
The Yankees Reliever Confidence Index: June Edition
David Bednar returns to form as Yanks’ relief unit remains surprisingly elite.
Yankees Mailbag: Mason Miller’s availability and Volpe’s struggles
The mailbag looks at the unlikely chance of landing an ace reliever.
Brewers Add Reliever Joel Kuhnel in Trade With Athletics
The Milwaukee Brewers acquired right-handed reliever Joel Kuhnel from the Athletics for cash considerations.
An Early Mock Trade To Give The Pirates’ Bullpen Help
The Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen is about as bad as one can get while not rebuilding. They’ve caused multiple late blown leads and heartbreaking disasters. The unfortunate reality is that no notable relievers are getting moved yet. ESPN’s Buster Olney even reported this. However, there might still be an opportunity for the Pirates to add someone. …
Brewers Lose Key Reliever to Injured List
The Milwaukee Brewers have lost key relief pitcher DL Hall to the injured list.
Pirates Trade Struggling Veteran Reliever To Twins
He'll try to turn things around in Minnesota after a rough start to the season.
Twins acquire righty reliever Justin Lawrence from Pirates for cash
The Minnesota Twins acquired right-handed reliever Justin Lawrence from the Pittsburgh Pirates for cash on Monday night. The 31-year-old Lawrence was 0-2 with a 5.32 ERA in 23 appearances for the Pirates this season. Lawrence debuted with Colorado in 2021 and spent four seasons with the Rockies before Pittsburgh claimed him off waivers in March 2025.
Former Dodgers World Series Champion Could Be Trade Deadline Target
A key reliever on the Dodgers' last two World Series champions has the potential to help a contending team again in 2026.
Dodgers Reliever Skipping Rehab Assignment Ahead of Return
The Dodgers are getting back lefty Jack Dreyer soon, as he avoids a rehabilitation assignment and will return upon the expiration of his time on the IL.