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National City political shakeup might not end with mayor's race
National City’s structural budget deficit has triggered much finger-pointing among councilmembers — and is at the center of the mayoral race.
Johnson pitches election-year budget with focus on ‘fair share’ taxes on businesses
Johnson’s proposal doubles as his re-election message as he campaigns not only against a crowded mayoral field, but a majority of the City Council he has battled.
Five mayoral contenders file ballot signatures as incumbent Johnson waits
Mayor Brandon Johnson is struggling in fundraising, but plans to file "far above" the 12,500 signature threshold to make the ballot
Giannoulias opens big lead in Chicago mayoral poll as Johnson loses support
The secretary of state leads in first- and second-choice preferences, while just a quarter of Brandon Johnson's 2023 voters say they'd support him again.
Commentary: The midterms are about more than politics. They’re about our lives.
We may disagree about the solutions, but the things at stake on Nov. 3 matter to us all, contends former Morristown businesswoman and mayoral candidate Andrea Lekberg.
A Chicago billionaire is now a chief foe to both Mayor Johnson and CTU. Just who is Michael Sacks?
For years, Sacks has been a behind-the-scenes fixture in Chicago politics. Now he’s putting his money behind frontrunner mayoral candidate Alexi Giannoulias, as well as anti-Chicago Teachers Union school board candidates in the Nov. 3 election.
A City That Works: Chicago’s housing crisis demands more than campaign promises
Chicago's housing shortage is driving up rents. Mayoral candidates need specific plans to ease zoning restrictions, cut construction costs and build more homes.
Mayoral candidate Jim Schmitt hosts roundtable with Green Bay business owners
The discussion focused on what business owners say is making it harder to run their businesses downtown.
Mayoral candidate Jim Schmitt hosts roundtable with Green Bay business owners
Jim Schmitt, former Green Bay mayor and current mayoral candidate, hosted a roundtable with downtown Green Bay business owners on Wednesday morning.
Political strategist discusses Tuesday’s Los Angeles mayoral debate
Bass vs. Raman: Here's who won the L.A. mayoral debate
Times columnists weigh in on the final mayoral debate before the Nov. 3 election.
Live chat: Our columnists analyze L.A.'s mayoral debate
Times columnists comment in real time on the Los Angeles mayoral debate between Karen Bass and Nithya Raman.
Mamdani's new socialist outrage means more woe for NYC small businesses
If the City Council passes the Mamdani-endorsed POWER Act, Gotham’s fastest-growing hustle could be suing the small businesses that keep it running.
Spencer Pratt says he was told Democratic candidate Talarico is in mental health facility
Former Los Angeles mayoral candidate Spencer Pratt said Friday that he was told Texas Democratic candidate James Talarico is in a mental health facility.
‘Animals’ Review: The Politician’s Dilemma
Ben Affleck plays a mayoral candidate who’s having a very bad day in this fizz-free political thriller.
North Bend Mayoral Candidates address the business community at recent forum
Candidate forums continued at the Bay Area Chamber of Commerce’s (BACC) Business Connection Luncheons on Wednesday September 30, 2026. This week, the chamber hosted current North Bend Mayor Jessica Engelke,
Will Ben Affleck Get Join Politics Now? Animals Actor Has Answered
Ben Affleck’s latest movie Animals puts him in an unusual political role. He plays Mark Kimball, a mayoral candidate whose campaign is thrown into chaos when his son is kidnapped. While promoting the ...
Ben Affleck says he'd never run for political office
In "Animals," Ben Affleck plays a mayoral candidate whose son is kidnapped. In real life, he says, holding public office "would be an awful job."
RYOBI Cleans Up Local Politics with Unlikely Mayoral Candidate 'Swifty'
McCann Birmingham and RYOBI unveil the first trailer for a documentary following the spot cleaner’s unlikely bid to become mayor of Staines
Flint residents ask questions at Mayoral and Board of Education forum
Flint Mayoral and Board of Education candidates answered questions from the public ahead of the November election at Brennan Community Center.
Election 2026: Richmond mayoral race pits veteran against political scion
Claudia Jimenez, Ahmad Anderson will face off in November
Election 2026: Richmond mayoral race pits veteran against political scion
Claudia Jimenez, Ahmad Anderson will face off in November
‘A complicated map’: Henderson candidates push Boulder Highway updates
Henderson Councilwoman Carrie Cox and mayoral candidate Hollie Chadwick are sharing Boulder Highway construction and traffic updates on social media as the $184 million project continues.
Lossing and Hoheisel talk business at Monday’s Babbitt Weekly News mayoral candidate forum
The Ely Echo weekly newspaper and its companion pieces - North Country SAVER and North Country ANGLER - provide insight into the news and happenings of northern Minnesota, alongside the Canadian border. www.elyecho.com
Laurels and Darts: Following the political money.
Illuminating campaign finance reporting from LAist on the city’s mayoral race. Plus: A poor choice of words in the Cornell case, and the value of five-dollar obituaries.
Mauricio Umansky reacts to California gubernatorial debate, local politics
Stuart Varney hosts The Agency Founder and CEO Mauricio Umansky to discuss the California gubernatorial debate between Steve Hilton and Xavier Becerra. They analyze housing issues, red tape and the Los Angeles mayoral race.
Bass lawyers help influencers file complaint against Raman campaign
Two influencers have accused Nithya Raman's mayoral campaign of paying social media influencers who improperly disclosed the payments. The legal fees for their complaint are being covered by Mayor Karen Bass' mayoral campaign.
Los Angeles Mayoral Candidates Vie for Undecided Voters
Mayor Karen Bass and her onetime ally, Nithya Raman, made their case to voters with just five weeks left until the election.
Reality Check: Marshall returns attack ad towards Taylor
Tuesday marks five weeks until Election Day in Reno's mayoral race between Kate Marshall and Kathleen Taylor. Taylor's campaign previously ran attack ads against Marshall, who has now responded with
Reform and the UAE – a threat to British politics
By Alex Carlen The United Arab Emirates likes to present itself as part of the solution to the climate crisis. The oil-rich Gulf state has committed to Net Zero by 2050, hosted COP 28, and even declared “championing climate action” as one of three strategic objectives for this week’s session of the United Nations General Assembly. But behind the scenes the UAE has quietly built one of its closest political relationships in Europe with the party most hostile to climate action in Britain: Nigel Farage’s Reform UK. There is no evidence that the UAE is funding Reform. But a new FairSquare report, Petro-populism: the UAE–Reform threat, published today, documents a growing political relationship that should concern anyone interested in the integrity of British democracy. Reform’s leaders have embraced the UAE’s political model and promoted positions that align closely with the Emirati government’s priorities, while the UAE has given Farage and his party unusually warm access and public backing. What is emerging is not simply a relationship between British politicians and a wealthy Gulf state, but a channel through which an authoritarian government can cultivate political influence here, and abroad. Democracy for Sale relies on its readers. If you already support us, thanks so much. If you don’t, sign up to support fearless independent investigative journalism. Subscribe Back in January, Nigel Farage appeared at a GB News event in Dubai. On the 50th floor of a tower overlooking the luxury resorts and upscale residences of Palm Jumeirah, the Reform leader declared: “I want Clacton to look like this.” At the event – which Farage never declared on his official register of interests – senior Emirati officials mixed with British expats. Farage was keen to flatter. “We recognise you are our friends”, he said, assuring them that “a Brexit London, a Reform London, will remember you.” Controversy surrounding Reform’s finances and its susceptibility to foreign influence have centred around high-profile donations from billionaire crypto donors, and the jailing of Nathan Gill, Reform’s former leader in Wales, for accepting bribes to give pro-Russia speeches. Far less attention has been paid to Reform’s blossoming new alliance with the UAE, an oil-rich authoritarian state with a track record of ruinous anti-democratic interventions. Farage wasn’t always so fond of the UAE. Back in 2023 he called it an “absolute monarchy with an abysmal human rights record.” Now Reform’s hierarchy calls the UAE home. Deputy leader Richard Tice splits his time between his constituency and Dubai and has called on the UK to learn from the UAE. The party’s treasurer Nick Candy runs a firm which has been in partnership with a UAE-state linked firm since 2024. Nadhim Zahawi sits on the board of an Abu Dhabi think tank alongside an array of the most senior UAE officials and is reportedly close to three brothers of the country’s despotic ruler Mohammed Bin Zayed. Reform’s leading lights have effusively praised the UAE’s governance model, defended it from criticism, and advanced its political agenda in the UK. GB News, whose two major shareholders – the Legatum Foundation and Paul Marshall – have strong links to the UAE, has been more than happy to broadcast UAE propaganda and was forced to pay damages in 2025 after airing a false claim about a UK charity by the UAE “disinfluencer” Amjad Taha. The UAE has responded in kind. When the UAE Minister for Foreign Affairs conducted an official visit to the UK in May, Farage was the only non-government figure granted an audience. UAE state media publicised the meeting, and said that they discussed “the strategic relations between the two countries and ways to enhance them in a manner that serves mutual interests.” For the UAE these ‘mutual interests’ largely concern its paranoia over political Islam, and in this regard the UAE-Reform alliance is part of a broad and troubling pattern. Following a crackdown on dissent at home in the aftermath of the Arab Spring, the UAE has offered material and political support to a range of violent and authoritarian actors willing to oppose the Muslim Brotherhood with no regard for the consequences. Its meddling in Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, and most notably Sudan, have been devastating. The UAE’s strategy of seeking out partners on the political fringes who it believes will advance its interests is not unique to Britain – it extends beyond the Middle East to Europe and the US. In France, it has offered clandestine support to Marine Le Pen through secret meetings, as well allegedly funding trips to the region after which Le Pen returned with a renewed focus on the UAE’s perceived enemies – Qatar and the Muslim Brotherhood. Left-wing opposition leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon has accused the UAE of smearing him and of “encouraging discrimination, hatred or violence”. In the US, the UAE actively supported the rise of Donald Trump, establishing itself as a key ally during both his first and second terms. Around these relationships sits a wider ecosystem of figures willing to amplify UAE narratives, that even extends to Andrew Tate and Tommy Robinson. Subscribe In Britain, the UAE has used a combination of aggressive diplomacy and illicit, disruptive tactics to achieve its policy goal of eliminating any perceived threat from political Islam. In 2012, for instance, it threatened to block billion-pound arms deals with the UK and stop inward investment if David Cameron did not act against the Muslim Brotherhood and rein in the BBC’s coverage of the group – going so far as to suggest, with no supporting evidence, that the group had infiltrated the BBC. It has financed smear campaigns against a high-profile UK charity and funded a mercenary to secretly surveil, and possibly assassinate, a British national on British soil. In Reform UK, the UAE has finally found an ally willing to not only ban the Muslim Brotherhood, but to publicly vilify the group and repeat the UAE’s claims that dangerous Muslims are a fifth column in British society, a narrative that aligns with the Islamophobia and anti-immigration sentiments that underpin Reform’s populist politics. The Rycroft review into foreign interference concluded that “hostile states and non-state actors have a clear incentive to attempt to undermine UK democracy.” The UAE’s network and alliance with Reform must be understood within that framework. It is a powerful, disruptive and deeply authoritarian actor with the resources and networks to intervene in our politics, and a track-record of doing so in a multitude of other countries. The evidence of the threat the UAE poses is overwhelming. The question is whether parliamentarians are willing to call the UAE out and demand action using the tools that the government has to respond. Placing the UAE on the “Enhanced Tier” of the Foreign Registration scheme alongside Russia and Iran would send a powerful signal to the UAE that its meddling will no longer be tolerated, and would place Farage’s next trips to the UAE under the scrutiny they deserve. Alex Carlen is research and advocacy manager at London based human rights organisation FairSquare and author of its new report Petro-populism: the UAE–Reform threat. Subscribe
Greg Hinz: Chicago’s mayoral field is crowded. The real race may be much smaller.
Brandon Johnson faces a crowded field in the 2027 Chicago mayor’s race, but ballot challenges and political maneuvering could shrink it considerably.
Hampshire politicians back calls for mayoral election in 2027
Politicians say mayoral election in Hampshire and the Solent should happen in 2027 to "receive promised funding".
Watch the Tense New Trailer for Ben Affleck's Netflix Thriller 'Animals'
Ben Affleck wrote and directed the movie, a thriller about the son of an L.A. mayoral candidate being kidnapped.
City Council and mayoral candidates have no unifying vision; politics is a sport played by the uninformed (Letters)
The candidates vying for Boulder City Council and mayor seem scattered in what their vision for Boulder really is about. I find it hardly speaks to Boulder’s degrading environment, traffic density, strange planning and confusing politics, e…
Housing authority subsidiary nixes mayoral candidate ‘evaluation’ effort
An effort by a subsidiary of the Fort Smith Housing Authority to produce a mayoral scorecard ahead of the November 2026 general election was short-lived after it received criticism from...
Housing authority subsidiary nixes mayoral candidate ‘evaluation’ effort
An effort by a subsidiary of the Fort Smith Housing Authority to produce a mayoral scorecard ahead of the November 2026 general election was short-lived after it received criticism from...
Northwest Side attorney Bill Quinlan enters Chicago mayoral race
CHICAGO — Attorney William J. Quinlan, who has worked behind the scenes with some of the state’s highest profile politicians, is entering the crowded Chicago mayoral election fray. With his
Wyman Duggan committee picks up six-figure check from Aubrey Edge ahead of potential Jax mayoral run
Rep. Wyman Duggan is expected to run for Jacksonville Mayor, and he just got a big contribution from the company of a local CEO who would like to see
Mayoral candidates must improve public engagement; Prop 134’s flawed science (Letters)
Currently, there is little effort by the City of Boulder to bring opposing groups together to seek common ground. Public input is only solicited after a department has made a decision, so that “engagement” feels like a sales pitch. Boa…
London mayoral contenders limber up for a race that is Sadiq Khan’s to lose
Tories and Reform hope to unseat the incumbent by tempting some Labour voters to shift to the right
Editorial: World Business Chicago’s latest messaging conveniently dovetails with Brandon Johnson’s reelection case
Is World Business Chicago losing its way amid mayoral politics?
SEE IT: LA Dem candidates torched by disgusted residents after ‘disgraceful’ debate: ‘Both bad’
Los Angeles Democratic mayoral candidates Karen Bass and Nithya Raman face voter fury after a debate one resident called "disgraceful" for the city.
One-on-one with Nithya Raman: Making a 'long-term dent' in LA homelessness
The mayoral candidate opens up to Spectrum News
The fake L.A. mayor poll adds to challenges facing the public opinion industry
The fake opinion survey showing Karen Bass with a commanding lead in the L.A. mayoral race comes amid a wave of low-quality polls that have missed the mark in marquee races.
3 Entrepreneurs Want to Be Chicago’s Next Mayor. Each Has a Different Plan for the City
With the next mayoral election less than a year away, a number of well-known founders and business leaders have entered the race to lead the Windy City.
Lobbyist, mayoral candidate John Kelly says Chicago has had enough of career politicians
Mamdani Offers 50 Ways to Aid Small Business, From Barbershops to Bingo
As a mayoral candidate, Zohran Mamdani focused on the difficulties of running a small business in New York City, coining the term “halalflation” in a viral video.
The Manchester mayoral result holds the key to the future of progressive politics
Voters on the left may be fragmented – but they will pull together behind a convincing cross-party message, says Neal Lawson, director of cross-party campaign organisation Compass
Chicago politics: New mayoral candidate, push to delay Snelling's replacement, and more
After voting against rent control, a Providence councilman’s political future is at stake
Progressive groups are trying to oust Councilman John Goncalves, and the race for his Ward 1 seat may be seen as a proxy for the mayoral contest.
Money in Ann Arbor politics: Where does it come from, and where does it go?
Pre-election campaign finance statements for candidates of the Aug. 4 Ann Arbor mayoral and City Council primaries were due Friday. The statements report all campaign contributions and expenditures — from five-figure donations, to a $3.99 purchase of water made by mayoral candidate Yousef Rabhi’s campaign. Collectively, candidates for mayor and City Council have raised more […]
Shaky political "science": breakdown of the peer review process
[This article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in December 2025, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting (RCV). Many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first four articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report; the second one analyzed a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report; a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research; and a fourth article that analyzed seven studies sponsored by New America’s political reform program that deployed flawed methodology based on “simulated” elections instead of real-world elections, which when combined with some basic misunderstandings of RCV, produced odd and misleading results]. In this fifth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we examine two flawed studies on the impact of RCV on voter turnout authored by San Francisco State University professor Jason McDaniel. McDaniel’s research in these two papers stands out for its puzzling methodology, inadequate and cherry-picked data, and faulty analyses that not only misunderstands ranked choice voting but reflects a basic misunderstanding of politics in general. The first of the McDaniel studies actually passed through a peer review process and then was subsequently published by the Journal of Urban Affairs, despite its obvious errors. It is perplexing that a jury of peer political scientists did not catch the errors and send it back to McDaniel for a rewrite or outright rejection. This calls into question the credibility of the peer review process itself. The peer review process is supposed to represent the intellectual pinnacle of the profession – a way for academics to certify the quality of each other’s work, and to act as a check against sloppy research. In the case of the McDaniel study, the peer review process failed. Yet his flawed study has been cited dozens of times by other political scientists in their own flawed works — an unvirtuous circle of academic research. Here is the first Jason McDaniel study that we analyzed: “Writing the Rules to Rank the Candidates: Examining the Impact of Instant-Runoff Voting on Racial Group Turnout in San Francisco Mayoral Elections,” by Jason McDaniel, 2016, Journal of Urban Affairs. This study covered San Francisco’s use of ranked choice voting (RCV) in mayoral elections, purporting to show that RCV reduces voter turnout overall, increases voter errors, and has a negative impact on “marginal populations,” i.e. racial minorities, mainly as the result of the alleged complexity of RCV asking voters to rank candidates and having to be familiar with multiple candidates and related dynamics. McDaniel reached these conclusions by examining five San Francisco mayoral elections taking place in odd years (i.e. where there are no federal or state races on the ballot) from 1995 to 2011, comparing three earlier non-RCV races (in 1995, 1999 and 2003) with the later two RCV races (in 2007 and 2011). Only two RCV races were studied, and as McDaniel acknowledged, only the contest in 2011 was “competitive” (that contest in 2007 was the first mayoral election using RCV, and incumbent mayor Gavin Newsom won easily in the first round of counting, earning 74% of first choices and far ahead of the second place candidate who had just 6.3% of first choices). Yet even the allegedly competitive contest in 2011was won by an incumbent with a landslide margin of nearly 20 points. No other elections were studied by McDaniel, even though San Francisco elects 17 other offices besides mayor with RCV, including the 11 seats on the Board of Supervisors (the name for the city council) in even years, and six other citywide offices in odd years. Previous academic research has found that competitive elections can stimulate greater voter involvement and higher turnout. For unexplained reasons, this study ignored at least 34 other RCV races between the years 2004 to 2011, many of which were very competitive and had high voter turnout. Instead, McDaniel’s analysis based its conclusions on data from only a single, marginally-competitive mayor’s race using RCV. These 2007 and 2011 mayoral elections were the only two RCV elections that McDaniel used as the sole basis for his small data set to determine the impact of RCV on voter turnout. Despite having no meaningful data to inform his study, McDaniel nonetheless concluded that RCV lowered turnout when compared to the previous three mayoral non-RCV elections using two-round runoffs. Then, using the same inadequate database of San Francisco elections, McDaniel also found that “Instant-runoff voting is associated with a significant decline in Black voter turnout and White voter turnout…On average, Black voter turnout decreases by 18 points and White voter turnout decreases by 16 points …” But how could he credibly arrive at that conclusion when his study was based on voter turnout in two RCV contests that were not even remotely competitive? Beyond that, McDaniel tacitly admits that the key determining factor driving Black voter turnout was not RCV vs non-RCV elections, but the presence of a viable Black candidate. McDaniel wrote, “Black voter turnout was about 17 percentage points higher for the two elections that featured an African American candidate compared to the three elections that did not” — but one of those three elections did not use RCV. The same dynamic was present for White voter turnout, in which higher turnout was not correlated with RCV vs non-RCV elections, but the presence of a viable White candidate. Beyond that, McDaniel’s voter turnout results, whether correlated with the race of the candidates or RCV vs non-RCV elections, showed no clear patterns. In his Figure 1, he shows low Asian voter turnout in the non-RCV elections in 1999 and 2003 when there was no viable Asian candidate running, but in the 2007 mayoral election using RCV, there is still no viable Asian candidate, yet Asian turnout increases dramatically. For Latinos, voter turnout is virtually the same in 1999 (no viable Latino candidate, non-RCV elections), 2003 (leading Latino candidate, non-RCV elections), 2007 (no viable Latino candidate, RCV elections) and 2011 (leading Latino candidate, RCV elections). Meanwhile White voter turnout increased dramatically from a low in the 2007 mayoral election, in which the leading candidate was a white incumbent, to the 2011 election in which there were no leading white candidates that finished any higher than sixth place with 5.6% of the vote. Clearly other factors were determining voter turnout than either the race of the candidates or RCV vs non-RCV elections. Despite these inconsistent findings, McDaniel boldly marches forth to render conclusions about the impact of RCV on different groups of racial voters, even though his conclusions are not remotely supported by his data. This looks like the worst kind of “data cherry picking” to cover up a puzzling conclusion based on a poor data set involving only two RCV elections, neither of which were remotely competitive. McDaniel’s cherry picking didn’t stop there. In calculating voter turnout for the three non-RCV mayoral elections in 1995, 1999 and 2003, he failed to mention that in each of these years there was a two-round runoff election, with a first round election in November in which no candidate garnered a winning majority of the vote, followed by the decisive runoff in December. So there were two non-RCV elections in each election year. But McDaniel only decided to include one of the two elections in his data set, apparently the December runoff in each year (which had higher turnout in two out of the three mayor’s races, and lower turnout in the third). So he ignored the November 1995 election, the November 1999 election when turnout was only 45 percent, and the November 2003 election when turnout was only 45.7 percent. This is flawed methodology based on blatant cherry picking, since McDaniel simply omitted three elections worth of data that did not fit within his frame. His study should never have made it through a peer review process, and it is an embarrassment to political science that not only was it approved for publication, but it has been uncritically cited by dozens of other political scientists. Share A “study” without wider context or credible data Lacking a data set that included even a single competitive RCV mayoral race, McDaniel declared that RCV lowered voter turnout in 2011, when turnout was 42.5 percent. But he also ignored -- or did not realize -- that voter turnout in mayoral elections during 2011 had sharply declined in all big cities, including far more steeply in nearby Los Angeles and other cities. In fact, San Francisco’s election in 2011 had the second highest turnout of any mayoral election in the nation’s 22 largest cities from 2008-2011. Was 2011 just a particularly low turnout year all across the country, perhaps because the country was still reeling from the aftermath of the housing market collapse in 2008-2010? McDaniel ignored this factor and did not search for alternative explanations beyond his flawed thesis. Furthermore, while McDaniel suggested that RCV leads to more “overvotes” – which is an invalidated ballot in which a voter, in either a non-RCV or RCV race, makes a mistake and selects two candidates for a single choice – he failed to address that in the June 2012 US Senate primary contest, which used the typical “one-choice” plurality method and did not use RCV, there was more than five times as many overvotes in San Francisco and Oakland than in the RCV mayoral elections in those cities. Additionally, turnout had been significantly higher and more representative in RCV elections for the San Francisco Board of Supervisors races -- that McDaniel didn’t even bother to study -- as compared to previous “delayed two-round runoffs” for those offices, often higher by as much as 40% in the RCV races. Perhaps the most surprising irony was that an earlier study co-authored by McDaniel (Overvoting and the Equality of Voice under Instant-Runoff Voting in San Francisco by Francis Neely and Jason McDaniel, 2015, California Journal of Politics and Policy) found that overvotes are often more common in lower-income precincts, but that the pattern of overvoting is similar in both RCV and non-RCV contests. Wrote Neely and McDaniel: “[Overvote] errors appear to be a function of complexity in general and not IRV per se…. the pattern of overvoting is similar in both IRV and non-IRV contests…Even among votes cast in a top-of-the-ticket race like U.S. Senate, overvoting occurs in an uneven fashion” (IRV, or ‘instant runoff voting,’ is another name for ranked choice voting in single-winner contests). So McDaniel not only contradicted his own conclusion in his earlier study with Neely, but the earlier study had been an important corrective for one of the most frequently made mistakes made by anti-RCV political scientists – a continual failure to provide crucial context by pairing a comparative analysis of real world RCV elections with an analysis of real world plurality or other electoral methods. Unfortunately McDaniel’s earlier study does not get cited much by other researchers, and McDaniel did not even cite it in his own flawed study analyzed above. Incredibly, McDaniel cherrypicked McDaniel, even as his flawed study has been cited dozens of times. Despite being a textbook example of poor political “science,” featuring both inadequate as well as cherrypicked data, the shelf life of McDaniel’s study has been extended endlessly by other political scientists and media outlets who have cited it uncritically. Equally troubling, the Journal of Urban Affairs put this paper through its peer review process and published it despite its numerous flaws. McDaniel gets it wrong, Part II Not content with producing one shoddy, confused paper, McDaniel produced another one a few years later, here is the link: Electoral Rules and Voter Turnout in Mayoral Elections: An Analysis of Ranked-Choice Voting by Jason McDaniel. San Francisco State Univ. (McDaniel, 2019). In this paper, McDaniel extended his previous flawed research focused on San Francisco, about voter turnout and voter impact, to multiple RCV cities through the 2018 elections. In his data set he included San Francisco, Minneapolis, St Paul, Oakland, Berkeley, San Leandro and Santa Fe. He then compared their turnout in mayoral elections to non-RCV cities, and to mayoral elections in those cities held before first RCV usage, and concluded “a significant decrease in voter turnout of approximately 3–5 percentage points in RCV cities after the implementation of RCV.” But he replicated many of the same mistakes as his first study presented above. While in this study McDaniel attempted to distinguish between various factors, such as odd year vs. even year elections, competitive races vs. noncompetitive, contests with open seats and other factors, the analysis is superficial and inadequate. He attempts to incorporate so many often-conflicting variables that his conclusions are once again unsupported by the actual data, and ultimately unconvincing (this second study never underwent a peer review process). For example, McDaniel declared that for RCV cities “in elections that are more competitive than average (margin of victory less than 20%), there is no significant RCV effect on voter turnout.” Yet McDaniel is a professor in a city, San Francisco, in which the 2018 special election using RCV to fill a mayoral vacancy was exceedingly close, decided by a margin of only one percentage point, and resulted in the second highest turnout in San Francisco history for a mayoral election. Illustrating the complexity involved in assessing the critical factors in turnout, that special election was held on the same election day as federal and state offices, which tends to boost turnout. Yet more voters participated in that RCV mayoral election than voted on the same day in the non-RCV primary for governor in which former San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom was running. Even more puzzling, in this study McDaniel inaccurately cited his own previous study from 2015 with Neely. McDaniel wrote, “Neely and McDaniel (2015) examine individual ballot image files within a natural experiment, and find higher rates of ballot errors in RCV elections compared to non-RCV elections” (emphasis added). However, we quoted from that 2015 study several paragraphs above, and in actual fact Neely and McDaniel actually concluded the opposite -- that the pattern of overvoting – which is the most common form of ballot error – is similar in both RCV and non-RCV contests. McDaniel also ignored the fact that in Bay Area RCV elections held in even years – at the same time as federal and state elections, when turnout is highest -- the “undervote” (that is, the dropoff in ballots cast for governor or mayor) has declined, which contradicts his thesis that the act of ranking ballots in RCV elections is too complex and presents a barrier for certain demographics of voters. To his credit, McDaniel actually acknowledged another contradiction in his own paper, which found a negative RCV turnout effect in some odd-year elections but not others, admitting that “may present a challenge to the theory that increased complexity [from RCV] will have a marginal negative effect on voter turnout.” But he tried to wallpaper over that contradiction by blaming it on an unlikely source -- bad election administration. McDaniels wrote, “This would suggest that the negative impact of RCV on voter participation may be alleviated by high quality election administration,” without presenting any data or even anecdotes to support such an unfounded theory. While competent election administration of any election, whether RCV or non-RCV, is crucially important, there is no credible research that supports the far-fetched notion that the quality of election administration has much of an impact on voter turnout in US elections, whether using RCV or otherwise. Upgrade to a $5 subscription The unvirtuous circle of academic research It is puzzling how McDaniel’s first study could have survived the peer review process for the Journal of Urban Affairs. The mistakes in McDaniel’s first study above should have been obvious to anyone with a basic understanding of ranked choice voting as well as elections in general, and elections in San Francisco specifically. It undermines faith in the credibility of the peer review process to think that a jury of peer political scientists did not catch the egregious errors and reject McDaniel’s sloppy research and paper. And it remains a black mark on political science that this thoroughly discredited study has been cited dozens of times by other researchers. Indeed, in our research paper it became apparent that many political scientists cite each other’s flawed research to pad their list of citations and to legitimize their own flawed research, creating an unvirtuous circle of political science. More broadly, McDaniel’s voter turnout studies, like other studies evaluating RCV’s impact on turnout, lacked a recognition that no credible opinion or research can claim that RCV increases voter turnout merely because so many voters are excited to vote for their favorite candidates instead of “lesser evil” candidates without worrying about spoilers. Instead, with respect to turnout, the advantage of RCV has always been that, in most places where it has been used, it has eliminated a pre-November primary or post-November runoff, which usually saw about half the turnout of the November general election. This is especially true during even years when there are state and federal elections on the ballot which substantially drive turnout more than local contests. Any study that does not adequately account for this non-November primary/runoff vs November general election dynamic, or odd year vs even year election factors, is simply not credible. Both of McDaniel’s studies largely failed on those grounds. Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to a $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS…your digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe
Business attorney and political newcomer starts mayoral campaign committee
An Evanston attorney and nonprofit leader filed paperwork last week to run for mayor in next year's special election, growing the potential field a few
Business attorney and political newcomer starts mayoral campaign committee
An Evanston attorney and nonprofit leader filed paperwork last week to run for mayor in next year's special election, growing the potential field a few
Maui County’s fringe mayoral candidates add unique ideas, opinions, entertainment to race
"It's one of my favorite aspects of politics is the fact that all of these folks get to run no matter how realistic their candidacies are. And sometimes they bring up really important issues, and sometimes they help shift the nature of what the mainstream candidates are talking about," political scientist Colin Moore said. "And sometimes it's just really entertaining."
Trump calls likely DC mayor Janeese Lewis George a 'communist' and vows to block her agenda
D.C. mayoral frontrunner Janeese Lewis George faces clash with President Trump over ICE enforcement, policing, cashless bail and sanctuary city policies.
Inside California Politics: Former LA city councilmember weighs in on mayoral race
(Inside California Politics) — With Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass now set for a tough reelection campaign against former ally turned rival Nithya Raman, a former member of the L.A. City Council spok…
Despite Mayor Brandon Johnson campaign promise, 911 mental health response team flounders
Throughout his 2023 mayoral campaign, Brandon Johnson championed a progressive vision of sending teams of mental health clinicians instead of police officers to help people suffering from psychiatric emergencies. But since he took office…
South Dakota mayoral candidates separated by just two votes in shockingly close race, recount expected
The Sioux Falls mayoral runoff contest shockingly resulted in just a two-vote margin separating the candidates out of more than 36,000 ballots cast.
Mike Quigley to make mayoral bid official with Saturday kickoff
U.S. Rep. Mike Quigley is making his long-anticipated run for Chicago mayor official this weekend.
Jodi's Journal: A mayoral reality checklist
As Sioux Falls prepares to elect a new mayor, Jodi draws from experience in this week's column: a list of reality checks.
Democratic socialists surge in mayoral races across the country as anti-Trump fervor rises
Janeese Lewis George is making waves in Washington, D.C., with her progressive agenda as she aims for the mayor's office.
Democratic Socialists Surge in Mayoral Races Across the Country as Anti-Trump Fervor Rises
WASHINGTON (AP) — As Janeese Lewis George paves a path to the mayor's office in Washington, D.C., she's told voters they could have it all. Her unapologetically expansive, left-wing agenda includes subsidized or even free childcare, increased down payment assistance for homebuyers and community ...
Challenger concedes to democratic socialist Janeese Lewis George in Washington, D.C., mayoral primary
NBC News has not yet projected a primary winner. But Kenyan McDuffie’s concession sets up Lewis George to lead the city for the last two years of the Trump administration.
Democratic socialists are on the rise in Trump-era mayoral races
The rise is fueled by a backlash to Trump policies, economic strain and fatigue with the Democratic establishment. A possible win in Washington, D.C., might be next.
Where do things stand in the DC primary races?
Janeese Lewis George is holding a large early lead in the Democratic mayoral primary in Washington, DC, based on initial election results, but CNN has not projected a winner yet.
Democratic socialist Janeese Lewis George opens up lead in Washington, D.C., mayoral primary
Lewis George, a member of the city council, has a significant edge over her nearest rival, Kenyan McDuffie, with about two-thirds of the vote counted and the race too early to call.
People are betting on elections. Congress is watching
As prediction markets stir debate over betting on politics, the Los Angeles mayoral race raised a new question: What happens when people wager on elections?
Spencer Pratt Concedes Defeat in Los Angeles Mayoral Race
Spencer Pratt conceded that he will not be L.A.'s next mayor in a video taunting the winning candidates.
Council revises school buffer zone bill after mayoral veto
Mayor Zohran Mamdani vetoed the original legislation in April.
Bob Buckhorn PC raising $215K in most recent reporting period, the first as an official mayoral candidate
Buckhorn’s total haul to his political committee now sits at more than $2M
Nithya Raman will advance over Spencer Pratt to face Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass in November, CNN projects
Nithya Raman will advance to the November election in the Los Angeles mayoral race, CNN’s Decision Desk projects, after overtaking Spencer Pratt for second place as more votes were counted in the days after the June 2 primary.
Nithya Raman narrowly leads Spencer Pratt in race for second spot in Los Angeles mayoral race
Nithya Raman pulled ahead of former reality TV star Spencer Pratt in the race for the second spot in the November election for Los Angeles mayor after a vote update Sunday evening.
Nithya Raman leaps past Spencer Pratt in tight, unresolved race to make L.A. mayoral runoff
NBC News has not yet projected who will join incumbent Mayor Karen Bass in the November runoff election.
Spencer Pratt's runner-up edge over Democrat Raman down to 1%, few thousand ballots
Spencer Pratt's lead over Nithya Raman in the L.A. mayoral race has slimmed to just 1% as late ballot counting continues days after election day.
Can Spencer Pratt, Tom Steyer clear primary hurdles? California election updates
Reality TV's Spencer Pratt is losing ground in the LA mayoral race as Democrat Tom Steyer and Republican Steve Hilton compete in the gubernatorial primary.
DOJ debunks social media claim of discrepancy in LA mayor voting count
A Los Angeles-based Justice Department official late Friday debunked a baseless claim of a discrepancy in the vote count of the city’s mayoral race that has circulated on social media.
Susana Mendoza launches bid for Chicago mayor
Illinois Comptroller Susana Mendoza officially entered the 2027 Chicago mayoral race today, becoming the highest-profile candidate to declare a challenge to Mayor Brandon Johnson.
‘Getting things done’: John Taylor swaps mayoral re-election bid for run at HD 109
His candidacy comes amid a broader political reshuffling in Miami-Dade, with multiple legislative seats opening due to term limits, higher-office bids and shifting congressional borders.
Incumbent Karen Bass Advances to L.A. Mayoral Election in November
Her opponent remains undetermined.
Reality TV star Spencer Pratt tests LA voters' appetite for political outsider
Voters across Los Angeles share their thoughts on reality TV star Spencer Pratt entering the mayoral race and reveal the issues and leadership traits driving their decisions at the ballot box.
Politics professor discusses LA mayoral and California governor's races on Election Day
Reality star Spencer Pratt is upending Los Angeles’ mayoral race
He is challenging Mayor Karen Bass
How LA's Fight for Its Entertainment Future May Tilt a Tight City Election
Both the close mayoral primary and a winner-take-all city council race have made Hollywood part of the debate for Los Angeles' future.
Karen Bass appears to liken Spencer Pratt to Trump amid tightening LA mayoral race
The Los Angeles mayoral race heads toward a likely runoff as Karen Bass, Spencer Pratt and Nithya Raman make final pitches before Election Day on Tuesday.
EAST TEXAS POLITICS: Mayoral candidates discuss vision for Tyler ahead of runoff election
Blake Holland interviews Tyler mayoral runoff candidates John Nix and Stuart Hene in the debut episode of East Texas Politics on East Texas Now.
EAST TEXAS POLITICS: Mayoral candidates discuss vision for Tyler ahead of runoff election
Blake Holland interviews Tyler mayoral runoff candidates John Nix and Stuart Hene in the debut episode of East Texas Politics on East Texas Now. Pine Tree ISD superintendent Steve Clugston also discusses his run as a conservative independent for Texas Senate District 1.
Spencer Pratt 'catching fire' among frustrated LA Democrats, House lawmaker says
Rep. Darrell Issa tells Fox News Digital that insurgent LA mayoral candidate Spencer Pratt is catching fire among frustrated Democratic voters.
Spencer Pratt says he doesn’t care about national politics after Trump backed his bid for L.A. mayor
The former reality TV star said he doesn’t need anyone’s endorsement after President Donald Trump said he’d like to see him do well in the mayoral election.
East Texas Politics streaming series debuts Friday with Tyler mayoral candidates
Blake Holland launches weekly political show on East Texas Now
Downtown L.A. businesses demand attention from the mayor's race
Businesses want the mayoral candidates to deal with downtown’s entrenched troubles.
Greg Hinz: As mayoral field forms, Mendoza targets Johnson on TIFs
Susana Mendoza’s attack on TIF sweeps may be the opening salvo in a crowded mayoral contest.
Council plans revised school buffer zone bill after mayoral veto
Mayor Zohran Mamdani vetoed the original legislation in April.
McCourt School Hosts 2026 DC Democratic Mayoral Primary Debate - McCourt School of Public Policy
The McCourt School's Institute of Politics and Public Service at Georgetown University hosted the 2026 DC democratic mayoral debate.
LA mayor's race: AI videos supporting Spencer Pratt shake up political playbook
AI-generated videos depicting L.A. mayoral candidate Spencer Pratt as a superhero and his rival Karen Bass as a villain are gaining traction online.
Pratt ‘going to forever change how political ads are done’: Chaffetz
Fox News host and former Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah) on Sunday praised Spencer Pratt, the Republican candidate in the Los Angeles mayoral race, saying he is “going to forever change how poli…