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How Americans’ Financial Health Is Faring In The “K-Shaped” Economy
Hey all, Jason here. Money20/20 is still two weeks away, but I’ve already started packing (not procrastinating for once!). My calendar is already filling up with various sessions I want to catch, meetings, and of course happy hours, dinners, and other side events. If you’ll be in Vegas and want to catch up, let me know by replying to this email, and we can try to find a time amidst the chaos of the Venetian. A big if not totally unexpected piece of news dropped on Friday: the Independent Community Bankers of America, a trade group that represents smaller U.S. banks, filed a lawsuit against the OCC and Comptroller Jonathan Gould, arguing that the regulator’s move to grant trust bank charters to firms seeking to use them to conduct substantial non-fiduciary activities exceeds the authorities granted to the OCC by Congress. I haven’t had time to fully digest the legal filing or speak to folks in my network about it, but you can expect to see coverage and analysis on it in next week’s newsletter. Subscribe or Support by Upgrading The NerdCon agenda just dropped. It’s stacked. Partner content: Nubank built an AI-first bank. Chime built its own banking core. Figure and Valon are rebuilding the mortgage stack. At NerdCon, you’ll hear from the people behind those bets: what they chose, what they learned, and what they’re still figuring out. The agenda is live, with leaders from Nubank, Chime, OpenAI, Remitly, Mercury, Figure, Valon and more. Follow the mainstage conversations, bring the problem your team is wrestling with to a hands-on workshop, or pull up a chair at a roundtable. Pick your quests. Meet us in San Diego, November 18–20. Fintech Business Weekly readers save 20% with code FBW20. Explore the Agenda Things To Know & Other Good Reads Federal Reserve Board finalizes changes to enhance the transparency and public accountability of its stress test and reduce volatility in its stress test-related capital requirements (Federal Reserve Board of Governors) FDIC Announces Conclusion of Independent Monitorship (FDIC) Modernizing Financial Regulation: Initial Observations from eSLR (Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman) The Data Version of Godzilla versus Kong: FRED Takes on AI (Fed Governor Christopher Waller) Financing the AI buildout (Brookings) Q3’26: Rules for Banks but Not for Crypto (Fintech Takes Banking) The Inevitability of Local Stablecoins (Lombard Notes) Delusions of AI Governance: The Human-in-the-Loop Comfort Blanket (Fintech Snark Tank) Stripe agrees to acquire Parafin to expand revenue opportunities for platforms and help small businesses grow (Stripe) Listen: Fighting Fraud in the Age of AI, with SEON’s Tamas Kadar (Fintech Business Weekly) How Americans’ Financial Health Is Faring In The “K-Shaped” Economy If there is one overarching theme across the economy and politics in the U.S. at the moment, it’s “affordability.” The term is vague enough to encompass a panoply of factors shaping Americans’ day-to-day lives: rising costs for the hallmarks of being “middle class,” including healthcare, housing, childcare, and education, inflation and rising interest rates, and a job market with the specter of AI hovering over it. At the same time, policy shifts under the Trump administration have resulted in reduced subsidies to those who get health insurance under the Affordable Care Act and new restrictions on qualifying for Medicaid and SNAP, the impacts of which have yet to be fully felt. These factors are contributing to declining consumer confidence and general dissatisfaction with the economy, despite continuing GDP growth and stock market records. This divergence is encapsulated in the idea of the “K-shaped” economy, in which a small proportion of Americans have seen their wealth balloon, while the majority of American households struggle to preserve the lifestyle they have. Perhaps the greatest determinant of which branch of the “K” a household is on is whether their wealth and income are primarily derived from employment vs. from assets. Nearly two decades of low interest rates and, more recently, elevated rates of inflation have benefited asset owners, while those whose income is primarily or solely derived from labor have largely seen real purchasing power stagnate or decline. This is reflected in recent Bureau of Labor Statistics data showing that labor share of U.S. GDP — the fraction of economic output that accrues to workers as compensation in exchange for their labor — dropped to just 52.8% in Q2 2026, the lowest since the BLS began keeping records. In 1947, approximately 2/3rds of economic output accrued to workers; even as recently as 2001, labor’s share of GDP was 64.1%. Against this backdrop, we’ve seen the rise of more credit and credit-like products: cash advance apps, “no-fee” overdraft, earned wage access, and buy now pay later, which are often used as small-dollar short-term borrowing mechanisms to meet immediate consumption needs or pay other bills (eg utilities, cell phone, other debt payments). With the markers of a middle class existence and, increasingly, basic financial stability seemingly out of reach for many, it should be no surprise there’s been an increase in “financial nihilism,” something industry peers like Alex Johnson and Frank Rotman have discussed and analyzed the roots of. The explosion of gambling and gambling-adjacent products and services — often marketed under the guise of being an “investment” — is inextricably intertwined with the rise of financial nihilism. Crypto, sports betting, and, more recently, prediction markets offer an escape or even hope of sorts, like a contemporary, digital version of a scratch-off lottery ticket, while leaving the overwhelming number of people who use such products worse off. Share of Households That Are Financially “Vulnerable” Ticks Up The Financial Health Network’s 2026 Financial Health Pulse® report adds context on how American households are faring. (I linked to this report in last week’s newsletter, but wanted to take time to further unpack the data in the report this week.) The Financial Health Network publishes the report annually, providing insight into how Americans’ financial circumstances are changing over time. The 2026 report is derived from a survey fielded in April and May 2026. The report leverages survey responses to assess indicators of financial health across spending, saving, borrowing, and planning/protecting and to determine a zero to 100 “FinHealth” score. Those with scores between 0 and 39 are considered “Financially Vulnerable,” consumers with scores ranging between 40 and 79 are defined as “Financially Coping,” and those with scores of 80 to 100 are “Financially Healthy.” The report found that moderate improvements in 2025 were reversed, with the share of respondents considered financially “vulnerable” rebounding to 17%. The longitudinal data reflect the impact of pandemic-era programs, like expanded unemployment, cash stimulus payments, and pauses of federal student loan payments. The positive impacts of those programs, as reflected in the Financial Health Pulse reports, had largely disappeared by 2023. While pandemic-era inflation — to be fair, in part caused by the various support and stimulus measures — had come down from as high as 9% in 2022, it has rebounded since the start of Trump’s second term, with tariffs and energy market disruptions owing to the war in Iran pushing prices back up. Specific indicators in the survey that deteriorated from 2025 to 2026 include the share of respondents spending less than their income over the past 12 months, the share paying all bills on time over the past 12 months, the share that have a manageable amount or no debt, the share that are “moderately” or “very” confident their insurance is adequate to cover them in an emergency, and the share that “somewhat” or “strongly” agree that their household plans ahead financially. Unsurprisingly, lower- and moderate-income households are more likely to struggle to pay their bills on time and have any funds leftover to save. The share of low-income households whose income exceeded their spending dropped from 35% in 2025 to 31% in 2026, while the share of upper-income households whose income exceeded expenses remained unchanged at 63%. Households with student loans or revolving credit card debt reported having “a bit more” or “far more” debt than was manageable at rates far higher than those not carrying these types of debts. The share of those with student loan debt indicating their debt load was too high to manage increased from 50% in 2025 to 55% in 2026, while the share of those with revolving credit card debt saying the same ticked up from 51% in 2025 to 54% in 2026. Households that had student loans were markedly more likely to be financially “coping” or “vulnerable” vs. those without student loans. In 2026, 27% of households with student loans were considered financially vulnerable, a jump of 6% points vs. 2025. Households without student loans saw just a 1% point increase (not statistically significant) in those considered financially vulnerable. Households’ perception of the affordability of categories of goods and services paints a stark picture, with less than one-fourth considering higher education affordable, about a third deeming childcare affordable, and less than half viewing healthcare as affordable. Fintech Business Weekly is made possible by the generous support of paying subscribers — bringing you independent analysis of banking, fintech, and crypto without fear or favor. You can support my work by becoming a paying subscriber if you aren’t already. Paying subscribers enjoy: access to the entire archive of nearly six years of newsletters extended versions of the weekly newsletter, with additional content and analysis and (for founding member tier) quarterly personal 1:1 fintech Q&A / strategy calls with me, tapping into my unparalleled knowledge of the intersection of banking and fintech and experience working in the sector, including helping to launch Goldman Sachs’ retail bank Marcus Support Fintech Business Weekly You can also support Fintech Business Weekly by sponsoring a newsletter or podcast, putting you in front of 93,000+ of the most influential decision makers in banking, fintech, and crypto. Learn more about sponsor opportunities or request a media kit by dropping me an email. Democratic Senate Report Highlights How Iran Uses Tether to Evade U.S. Sanctions Iran uses stablecoins, specifically Tether, to evade sanctions, fund regional proxies, and to purchase military drones, a report released last week by the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations says. The report was authored by committee ranking member Senator Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) and the minority staff. Crypto and stablecoin proponents will often push back on criticism that criminals make use of these assets by arguing that, on an absolute dollar basis, far more illicit funds flow through traditional banking systems and payment rails than via crypto and stablecoins. And while that is likely true, it elides the reality presented in news story after news story: whether state actors — Russia, Iran, North Korea — or criminal groups, those looking to engage in illicit transactions increasingly favor stablecoins and, specifically, Tether (USDT). The report from the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations released last week adds context to how Iran uses Tether has a lynchpin in its shadow banking system. The report analyzed 846 wallets that have been sanctioned or targeted for seizure, finding that 84% of them transacted exclusively or primarily in Tether. The ability to create near limitless, anonymous wallets and to move funds effectively instantaneously and irreversibly have made crypto a favored financial mechanism for bad actors. Stablecoins solved key drawbacks of bitcoin, namely, the original cryptocurrency’s highly volatile value in dollars. And while Tether (the company) has the technical ability to “freeze” or destroy funds, the company is often limited and reactive in its approach to doing so, the Senate report argues. Tether, which is nominally based in crypto-friendly El Salvador, “has stated that its compliance with OFAC sanctions is ‘voluntary’ and that it follows ‘OFAC guidelines,’” the Senate report says. Owing to these favorable attributes, Tether “became a primary cryptocurrency for Iran, Hamas, Hizballah, and the Houthis beginning in 2023 and has expanded in scale since,” according to the report. Tether’s role in Iran’s shadow banking system, the report says, is enhanced by crypto exchanges like Bybit, Kyrrex, OKX, Gate, and Binance, and through “over the counter” exchanges and hawala networks. The consequences of these financial flows aren’t hypothetical. The Senate report links Tether as a funds transfer mechanism to Iranian proxies in the region, including Hizballah, the Houthis, and Hamas. Tether has also been used to make payments to secure components necessary to manufacture drones, the report says. The report concludes by arguing that “[s]tablecoin issuers with a significant nexus to the United States, particularly those that offer dollar-denominated stablecoins, should be subject to American sanctions law rather than being allowed to hide behind foreign jurisdictions.” Stablecoin issuers like Tether must be held accountable for repeated failures to prevent illicit finance and sanctions violations by law enforcement, the Department of Justice, the Securities and Exchange Commission, and OFAC, the report argues. [Paying Subscriber Exclusive] OUSD Goes Live, Make Your Own Neobank, U.S. Sanctions Russia’s A7 Network As “Transnational Criminal Organization” OpenUSD, the stablecoin issued by the Open Standard consortium that includes Stripe, Visa, Mastercard, core providers, crypto firms, and numerous banks, went live last week. Social commerce platform Whop raised eyebrows in fintech by offering creators on its platform the ability to launch their own neobanks, which the company describes as “great businesses that are easy to run,” in just 15 minutes. And OFAC and FinCEN target Russia’s “shadow banking” A7 Network — more on these stories after the paywall.
Inside the fight over Israel tearing Democrats on the Hill apart
When a Brooklyn coffee shop announced on social media it was banning Rep. Dan Goldman over his views on Israel, some of his Jewish colleagues in Congress wanted their Democratic leadership to weigh in.
Omaha Steaks, Nerf basketball and Hazmat suits: Former contagion patients describe life in quarantine amid Hantavirus
Former patients share what it’s like to be stuck inside specialized biocontainment facilities like the ones now occupied by passengers exposed to the hantavirus outbreak.
Chewy Eyes Pet Health, AI and Clinics to Drive Its Next Growth Phase
Chewy (NYSE:CHWY) is prioritizing U.S. health services, customer spending expansion and artificial intelligence capabilities as it seeks to build on its pet retail foundation, Chief Executive Officer Sumit Singh said during a Goldman Sachs conference fireside chat. Singh said the company’s investme
BASF mandates banks for planned agricultural business listing
BASF said on Monday it had mandated Citi, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan as global coordinators for the planned listing of its Agricultural Solutions business.
How to AI -proof your job
Meta. Nike. Intuit. UPS. It seems every day a new company announces layoffs, often citing AI as the cause. AI is already reducing US monthly payroll growth by roughly 16,000 jobs in the past year, according to a recent Goldman Sachs report.
Radiology vendor Aidoc raises $150M from Goldman Sachs and others
Funding will help the New York-based company expand into additional clinical indications and capabilities while also supporting further development of Aidoc’s CARE Foundation Model.
Delivery Outlook Shows Tesla (TSLA)’s Core Business Under Pressure. Its Next Growth Engine Must Deliver
Goldman Sachs has cut its delivery forecast for Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) while citing weaker sales trends across the company’s most important markets. The investment bank slashed its Q3 delivery forecast to 435,000 vehicles from 490,000. It also lowered its Q4 delivery forecast to 475,000 vehicles from 515,000. The question now is whether Tesla’s demand weakness […]
Full Debate: Dan Goldman, Brad Lander go head-to-head in NY-10 debate
The district includes parts of Brooklyn and Manhattan.
Fast business funding: Big fees, few protections for merchant cash advances
A Colorado man says he lost $4,000 after applying for online business funding tied to Goldman Financial. Denver7 Investigates examines merchant cash advances, complaints, fees and industry oversight.
US business activity surges to 52-month high: S&P Global
Strong business investment and high equity prices will likely fuel 2.1% economic growth this year, Goldman Sachs said.
Goldman says Treasury buybacks won't be enough to tame bond yields
Treasury yields remained elevated after the department said it would repurchase up to $6 billion of 10- to 20-year debt.
Why Goldman Sachs still prefers AI infrastructure to 5% Treasuries
Higher rates haven't necessarily undermined the AI boom
NYC coffee shop bans pro-Israel politician in hostile social post: 'we don’t serve... genocide enablers'
A Brooklyn coffee shop criticized Rep. Dan Goldman after he bought coffee there, saying it would have turned him away as a "genocide enabler."
Inside the BoF and Clinuvel Community Lunch Exploring the Future of Skin Health
Investors from Goldman Sachs, L Catterton and Bansk Beauty joined leaders from L’Oréal, Harrods, Space NK and Unilever at The Business of Beauty Global Forum to examine how advances in medicine, biotechnology and longevity are redefining the future of skin health.
THE BUSINESS COUNCIL ANNOUNCES LEADERSHIP TRANSITION AS GOLDMAN SACHS CEO DAVID SOLOMON TAKES THE HELM
Washington, D.C., Oct. 16, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Business Council today announced that Goldman Sachs Chairman and CEO David Solomon will become its next leader, succeeding Brian Cornell, Executive Chair of Target Corporation. In this role, Solomon will chair one of the nation’s most distinguished business organizations, bringing together the world’s foremost CEOs to confront emerging challenges, advance innovation, and help define the future of global leadership. Cornell has led The Busin
Editorial | Brooklyn coffee shop’s snub of Congress member shows politics boiling over in NYC
He was out on Sunday campaigning in Brooklyn for re-election to his Congressional seat when he paid a visit to Poetica Coffee. Goldman said the staff politely
Seth Goldman Built a Business Before the Market Existed
When distributors said no and budgets were tight, Goldman relied on direct contact with customers to build momentum from nothing.
Anthropic Nears $1.5 Billion Joint Venture With Wall Street Firms
Anthropic, Blackstone and Hellman & Friedman each expected to invest around $300 million; Goldman Sachs also an investor.
Goldman dominates first-half M&A as dealmaking surges in EMEA
Goldman Sachs increased its share of mergers and acquisitions advisory work involving Europe, the Middle East and Africa in the first half of 2026, capturing the biggest slice of the market in the period for nearly a decade, LSEG data showed.
Why JPMorgan is 'the only business' that can 'weather any downturns'
JPMorgan (JPM), Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Wells Fargo (WFC) all reported second quarter earnings results on Tuesday. Whalen Global Advisors chairman, Chris Whalen, shares his take on JPMorgan's record results and CEO Jamie Dimon's recent warning.
Goldman CEO says fixed income, currencies, commodities business slightly softer in Q3
Goldman Sachs expects its fixed-income, currencies and commodities (FICC) business will be slightly softer in the third quarter compared to very strong performance for its equities business, Chief Executive David Solomon said on Wednesday.
Attacks on Science, Who's Behind Them, and Their Harm: My Congressional Testimony
Dr. Gretchen Goldman testified before the Senate Environmental and Public Works committee on the effects of attacks on science.
WEBTOON Entertainment Announces Participation in Upcoming Investor Conferences
WEBTOON Entertainment will participate in two upcoming investor conferences in August and September 2026.Quiver AI SummaryWEBTOON Entertainment Inc. has announced its participation in two upcoming investor conferences: the Deutsche Bank 2026 Technology Conference on August 26 in Dana Point, CA, and the Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference on September 10 in San Francisco, where it will present at 4:25 PM PT. The Goldman Sachs presen
Candidates make closing arguments in race for NY-10
Incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman faces Mamdani ally Brad Lander.
“Quite sad”: Rep. Goldman responds to NYC café banning him over his Israel stance
Goldman bans staff from participating in finance, politics prediction markets, source says
Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs has barred employees from trading on prediction-market contracts linked to financial markets and political events, a source familiar with the matter said on Thursday.
Local business owner graduates from Goldman Sachs business cohort
Mara Cunningham founded Youngstown's Yo! Crash--now with national recognition. She was one of 306 female entrepreneurs from around the globe in the 9th Goldman Sachs Black in Business cohort.
Fans protest decision to exclude O.J. Simpson from new stadium's Wall of Fame
His legacy is overshadowed by his arrest in the 1994 stabbing deaths of his ex-wife, Nicole Brown Simpson, and her friend, Ronald Goldman.
Why The Narrative Around Madison Square Garden Entertainment (MSGE) Is Shifting With New Street Signals
Recent Street research around Madison Square Garden Entertainment has produced several price target moves, including individual increases of between US$2 and US$6, while the consolidated target shift sits at about US$2. Bullish initiations and fresh coverage from major firms such as JPMorgan highlight growing attention, even as the removal from Goldman Sachs' US Conviction List and more cautious targets show that opinions are still split. In the sections ahead, you will see how these...
Inside the BoF and Clinuvel Community Lunch Exploring the Future of Skin Health
Investors from Goldman Sachs, L Catterton and Bansk Beauty joined leaders from L’Oréal, Harrods, Space NK and Unilever at The Business of Beauty Global Forum to examine how advances in medicine, biotechnology and longevity are redefining the future of skin health.
Full Debate: Dan Goldman, Brad Lander go head-to-head in NY-10 debate
The district includes parts of Brooklyn and Manhattan.
Labor unions rally behind Rep. Goldman
Dan Goldman is fighting for his political future against former City Comptroller Brad Lander.
Kristian Fulton Trade Blocked By Chiefs Depth, Not Value
A surprise twist blocks a potential Lions trade for Kristian Fulton. Chiefs reporter Charles Goldman explains why Kansas City keeps him despite injury concerns.
The AI trade is splitting into two worlds, Goldman Sachs says
China is no longer just supplying the AI boom. It's building an AI ecosystem that could rival the US-led one.
Academy Sports + Outdoors Announces Participation in Upcoming Investor Conference
Academy Sports + Outdoors (the "Company") (Nasdaq: ASO), a leading full-line sporting goods and outdoor recreation retailer, today announced its participation in the upcoming Goldman Sachs 33rd Annual Global Retailing Conference to be held Monday, September 14 to Tuesday, September 15, 2026. Chief Executive Officer, Steve Lawrence, and Chief Financial Officer, Carl Ford, will participate in a fireside chat that will be webcast live on September 15th, at 11:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The live webcast
What I got wrong about the Affordable Care Act — and how to fix it
“The big mistake, ironically, was the ACA’s lack of focus on affordability,” writes Dana Goldman.
Goldman thinks tracking your AI use misses the point
Wall Street is split on whether to track engineers' AI adoption to enforce its use. I sat down with Goldman Sachs' CIO to hear about his approach.
Rep. Dan Goldman addresses Brooklyn coffee shop banning him over his views on Israel
Rep. Dan Goldman called it “sad” that a Brooklyn coffee shop apparently banned him with a viral social media post amid a heated Democratic primary election that has focused heavily on the politics of the Israel-Gaza war.
Round Up: Every Switch 1 & 2 Game At THQ Nordic's 2026 Showcase
Reanimal DLC, Eternal Life of Goldman and more
Goldman Sachs rates business hit by Iran war volatility, sources say
Goldman Sachs' rates business suffered losses on some positions towards the end of the last quarter as fixed-income market volatility due to the Iran war forced it to hold on to certain positions as a market maker, two people familiar with the matter said.
SpaceX is a real company, with real numbers and real business, says Jim Cramer
'Mad Money' host Jim Cramer takes a look at Goldman Sachs' recent price target change on SpaceX and what is behind it.
Here's how some Chicago small businesses are ramping up their use of AI
Mary Nguyen Aregoni, owner of the West Loop restaurant Saigon Sisters, started using Gemini, Google’s AI tool, early this year. She took free online courses about AI and a webinar from Goldman Sachs’ 10,000 Small Businesses program. “It's pretty easy and intuitive to use, but you have to know how to ask the right questions or prompt,” she says.
Goldman Sachs economist predicts AI displacing 15 million jobs
Joseph Briggs of Goldman Sachs foresees AI displacing 15 million US jobs, but suggests new roles will emerge as adoption progresses.
Chinese companies aren't winning just by being cheaper: Goldman Sachs
China's weak domestic demand and years of deflationary pressure have fueled concerns that its exporters could push down prices overseas.
WATCH: House lawmakers speak ahead of Kathy Ruemmler interview in Epstein probe
Kathryn Ruemmler, the former top lawyer at Goldman Sachs who was White House counsel to President Barack Obama, said Wednesday in testimony to Congress that it “was a mistake to deal with” Jeffrey Epstein but insisted she never witnessed criminal activities.
Goldman Sachs leader praises Texas as 'business-friendly’ state
FOX Business correspondent Lauren Simonetti speaks with Goldman Sachs Dallas head Aasem Khalil about the influx of businesses to Texas on ‘Mornings with Maria.’
Taylor Riggs: This is an economy that's open for business
'The Big Money Show' co-host Taylor Riggs reports on major banks like JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo delivering blowout profits in Q2, indicating a resilient economy and strong consumer spending.
Ex-Goldman Analyst Jeff Currie Is Getting Into the Oil Business
Jeff Currie, the one-time Goldman Sachs Group Inc. commodities strategist known for shaping investor views on energy markets, has co-founded an oil and gas company.
The Supply Side: Walmart execs bullish despite high fuel prices
Consumers face higher energy prices and other challenges, but Walmart U.S. CEO David Guggina said at a recent Goldman Sachs investor conference that the consumer is resilient. And Walmart is...
Wall Street giants bar staff from finance and politics prediction markets, source says
July 9 (Reuters) - Wall Street giants Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have barred employees from trading on prediction-market contracts linked to financial markets and political events, a source familiar with the matter said on Thursday. A memo was ...
The AI industry's profit problem is getting bigger, Goldman Sachs says
Chip companies have captured outsized profits, while companies above them in the AI supply chain have yet to show comparable economic returns.
The Streaming Bubble Keeps Popping
(Welcome to the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a newsletter on the entertainment industry and business strategy. I write a weekly Streaming Ratings Report and a bi-weekly strategy column, along with occasional deep dives into other topics, like today’s article. Please subscribe.) One of my rules is “never bet against PE [private equity]”. This isn’t to say that I agree with their methods or tactics or strategies or financial innovations (aka shenanigans). Just that in the long arc of financial history, they’ve tended to return very good returns to their shareholders. That said, their forays into entertainment have left me...skeptical. I’ve written before about PE’s production company/celebrity production company roll ups, and those haven’t really worked out. Some PE groups tried to “roll up” an industry that isn’t “roll-up-able” for lack of a better term—since the barrier to entry for starting a production company is very low—often paying top dollar for celebrity production companies at the height of streaming valuations. So yeah maybe we can bet against PE when they venture into filmed entertainment. I’ve also noted that studio lots seemed to be a bubble back in 2022. Sure enough… Yikes! That sure sounds like some private equity guys lost some money. The only caveat being that holding a lot of land in Los Angeles is always valuable. But that wasn’t the pitch and likely real estate investment companies overpaid for said land. I mean, Goldman Sachs had to repossess it after all. (Technically, I’m not sure these buyers were traditional private equity, but PE was buying LA studio lots earlier this decade.) All to say: I call out bubbles when I see them, and they often pop. Anywho, my most famous bubble call was the “streaming bubble”, specifically that the major streamers were making too many shows and films. And that it could all come crashing down. Notably, I made this call before the strikes of 2023, but those strikes potentially accelerated the popping. And now it has indeed popped. One of my most popular articles of last year made that exact case. A year later, it’s time to update that analysis. The bottom line is that the streaming contraction continues. Credit where credit is due, Luminate—an analytics company whose data I use weekly in my streaming ratings report—called this out in a recent report I saw highlighted in both Bloomberg and The Hollywood Reporter. But I’m adding my data to their look, including streaming films and kids TV shows. I’ll also provide some other data that all tells the same picture. Let’s dive in! Subscribe The Number of Streaming TV Shows, Films and Specials Is Declining AGAIN in 2026 Let’s get right to the data, starting with my dataset. Specifically, each week I track every “notable” title to come out on streaming. I try to grab every title on every major streamer, meaning if it’s a first run or original or exclusive, I track it. This helps me call out the “dogs not barking” and the misses/flops each week. So that will be our first series of charts, my weekly collection data. Let’s start with the raw TV show, film and special data, by week. Note: As the years have gone by, I have actually added more sources (going from just one source to five sources) to find new titles, meaning that this data collection is, likely, more accurate now than in the past. Which means my team and I are more likely to have undercounted titles in the past rather than today. I like to cut the data several different ways. Here’s that same look, by quarter, to more sharply show the trends: And here’s the data just looking at the first half of each year. That’s the same data, just cut three different ways with three different time periods. Note that films, TV shows, and specials are all down by 25%, 42% and 17%, respectively, from 2022. The good news is that the number of films and specials actually increased year-over-year from 2025 to 2026, but not enough to offset the 25% decline in TV shows. Now, I also look at kids shows, and here they are pulled out on their own: And here’s that by quarter: This really seems to be a notable area of pullback by the streamers. Kids shows are down 80% from 2022. This reflects some formerly Disney+ shows going to cable TV first, but also pullbacks from HBO Max, Prime Video and Netflix. I also categorize the TV shows by English language and non-English language, and that also reveals a lot of where the drop comes from: And here is by the half-year: In this look, the good news is the drop for English language shows seems to have stabilized in the last year. But the bad news is the long term decline from the 2022 peak. Other Data So I wasn’t the only person to notice this decline in the number of shows. I have a few other data sources for this, though most only go through the end of 2025. As I said, Luminate beat me to the punch, so let’s look at their data. We’re just getting started with this issue, but the rest is for paid subscribers of the Entertainment Strategy Guy, so if you’d like to find out… What TV loss streaming didn’t make up for... How Netflix has changed their programming slate over time… Ten more images charting the decline of production... What type of films aren’t being made anymore... The good news (for movie theaters)… And more... ...please subscribe! We can only keep doing this great work with your support.
Rep. Dan Goldman on WHCD shooting: ‘This was a real security failure’
Goldman Sachs pushes Fed rate-cut call to 2027 on strong US jobs data
Goldman Sachs expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged through 2026 and delay rate cuts until 2027, it said on Friday, citing stronger economic activity and job growth after a robust payrolls report.
Editorial: AI’s risks are no reason for panic
“Nobody knows anything,” the screenwriter William Goldman famously said of the movie business. Much the same can be said today for artificial intelligence, a technology that’s moving fast, destination unknown.
Oscar Health (OSCR) Stock Valuation After Conference Rally And Reaffirmed 2026 Guidance
Oscar Health (OSCR) has been back on investors’ radar after a sharp stock rally following its business update at the Goldman Sachs Healthcare Conference, where management reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance and highlighted favorable utilization trends. See our latest analysis for Oscar Health. The stock’s rally around the Goldman Sachs Healthcare Conference and upbeat commentary on utilization trends come on top of very strong momentum, with a 90 day share price return of 118.52% and a 1 year...
Goldman Sachs flips forecast, now sees September Fed rate hike
Sept 13 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs expects the U.S.
David Solomon's annual intern letter: SpaceX, M&A, and how to thrive
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon advised interns to "manage your energy" as they enter the firm during an "innovation supercycle."
I took my Wall Street skills from Goldman Sachs to a dance studio
Caila Moed, 35, went from professional dance, to arts and philanthropy, to Goldman Sachs, to entrepreneurship — and a better work-life balance.
Walter’s TWG taps Goldman lawyer Markowitz amid federal probe
The former co-head of litigation and regulatory proceedings at Goldman, Markowitz joins Mark Walter's holding company as the firm faces a U.S. Department of Justice investigation.
Robinhood Lands Crypto.com Deal, Underwriting Job For Oura. Goldman Hikes Target.
Robinhood takes minority stake in Crypto.com with prediction market deal, to underwrite Oura IPO, reports say. Goldman lifts price target.
Clean sweep for Mamdani-backed candidates in New York's Democratic primary
Brad Lander unseats Dan Goldman in a race that laid bare the city's divisions over the Israel-Gaza war.
Only 12% of family businesses stay in the family by the third generation. A Goldman Sachs chairman says optimism is the reason
François-Xavier de Mallmann steers Goldman's relationships with many of the world's largest family-controlled enterprises.
Harvard Business School announces 2026 Goldsmith Fellows
Harvard Business School (HBS) has announced the 2026 recipients of its Horace W. Goldsmith Fellowships. Established in 1988 by the Horace W. Goldsmith Foundation and Ronay and Richard L. Menschel (MBA 1959), a former director of the foundation and a limited partner at Goldman Sachs, to encourage students from the nonprofit and public sectors to attend HBS, these fellowships enable the School to award $10,000 to a select number of incoming MBA students for each of the two years of the MBA Program.
Politics and the FIFA World Cup
Dr. Michael Goldman, Professor of Sports Management at the University of San Francisco, joins Fox Local San Francisco to discuss politics and the FIFA World Cup
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Tipranks Press Release.
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Colorado Sues EarnIn For “Immoral, Unethical, Oppressive and Unscrupulous” Business Practices
Hey all, Jason here. When this hits your inbox, I should be en route to the airport — not to go anywhere myself, just to pick up my better half. I must admit, it’s been strange to be home alone (well, with two dogs) for two weeks! Really lets me “optimize” to spending more time on reading/writing/working, whether that’s healthy or not! Looking forward to getting back into a (somewhat) more balance routine. Subscribe or Support by Upgrading Compare Notes With the People Who Built Modern Fintech Partner content: Remitly CEO Sebastian Gunningham. Increase founder Darragh Buckley. Linda Du, Co-founder & President at Valon. They’ll unpack the decisions behind building and scaling major financial products: what they got right, what broke, what they would do differently, and how AI and new infrastructure are changing the operator playbook. Most events tell you where fintech is going. NerdCon puts the people who built the present in the room and asks them what comes next. Expect an operator-led conversation grounded in real products, real trade-offs and lessons earned the hard way. Fintech Business Weekly readers save 20% on Regular tickets with code FBW20 before standard pricing ends September 11. Meet the Builders Things To Know & Other Good Reads Advent and Stripe Abandon $50 Billion Pursuit of PayPal (Bloomberg) Trump Family’s New Crypto Bank Is Backed by Abu Dhabi Sheikh (Wall Street Journal) The multiplying risks of financing data centres (FT) Let the Bond Market Speak (Wall Street Journal) Did we waste a crisis? Modest proposals to reform deposit insurance. (Fintech Takes Banking) Untangling Guggenheim: How Private Credit Built Its Own Universe (Net Interest) The Hater’s Guide To Circular Financing — Part One (Ed Zitron) Fiat Ventures Rebrands to FGV Capital, Announces $35M Oversubscribed Fund II (BusinessWire) Socure Announces Strategic Growth Investment at $5.2B Valuation and Acquires Agentic Operations Platform Fravity (Socure) Listen: When Consumer Protection Disclosures Work Too Well (Consumer Finance Monitor Podcast) Colorado Sues EarnIn For “Immoral, Unethical, Oppressive and Unscrupulous” Business Practices When Andreessen Horowitz led EarnIn’s $39 million Series B in 2017, Alex Rampell, a partner at the storied venture capital firm, described EarnIn’s small-dollar advance product as “free,” relying on “entirely on voluntary contributions instead of fees.” Rampell favorably compared EarnIn’s approach to typical payday loans, writing, “Payday loans historically have had the potential to be a slippery slope for consumers into financial distress: opaque systems and steep fees that are hard to repay and set individuals back further than where they started. For many Americans living paycheck to paycheck, that kind of slide into debt can be extremely difficult to recover from.” But EarnIn’s product — which, the company says, isn’t a “loan,” legally speaking — ends up being anything but free for most users. While it is technically possible to take a no-fee advance from the company, most users incur “Lightning Speed” (instant funding) fees and/or ostensibly optional tips that combined can equate to annualized percent rates that can reach over 1,000%. With an average term of 9.77 days, even fees and tips that are small on an absolute dollar basis are equivalent to high APRs on an annualized basis. A lawsuit filed last week by Colorado Attorney General Phil Weiser against EarnIn describes the company and its product and business practices quite differently than Andreessen’s Rampell; “EarnIn’s business practices are unfair because they are immoral, unethical, oppressive and unscrupulous,” the complaint, filed in District Court in Denver, Colorado, says. EarnIn’s marquee product, Cash Out, isn’t a loan, the company says, as Cash Out is not “[f]orward [l]ooking” because “[t]he money is transferred based on earnings to date,” does not carry a mandatory fee to access funds, and is “non-recourse,” meaning EarnIn cannot pursue recovery from users who don’t repay advanced funds. EarnIn is sometimes referred to as an “Earned Wage Advance” service. Though, unlike some others in the broader category, EarnIn does not integrate with employers’ payroll or time and attendance systems. Rather, EarnIn attempts to verify a user’s income and employment, by examining direct deposit transaction data in their linked external bank account, by using GPS location and Bluetooth data to estimate a user’s time spent at work, if they work in a fixed location, and/or by having a user provided a work email address. While repayment is theoretically optional, as EarnIn would have no recourse, such as reporting non-payment to the credit bureaus or a collections agency, this is anything but clear to users of the EarnIn app, Colorado’s complaint argues. During the process of taking a Cash Out, users must agree to a preauthorized debit of the amount advanced, plus any expedited funding fee and/or tips. Though users technically can revoke this ACH authorization, the fact that they have this right isn’t presented to users during the Cash Out process, but rather is included in linked terms and conditions few users are likely to actually read. And users who do wish to revoke their ACH authorization must do so three or more days before the scheduled transaction date by emailing EarnIn’s customer support. Similarly, EarnIn’s marketing claims that it carries “no interest” and “no mandatory fees” is technically true, but is not the reality for many of the app’s users, the Colorado complaint argues. Further, EarnIn has extensively marketed to users the ability to “access your pay today,” to get “instant” funds, and to get funds “the same day you work” — when, in reality, this speed of access was only possible by paying the additional, undisclosed Lightning Speed fee. The Colorado complaint highlights this contradiction specifically, noting: EarnIn tells consumers that they can ‘Make any day payday with EarnIn’ and that there no ‘hidden’ or ‘mandatory fees.’ For a consumer to access their pay on the same day requested, they would have to pay the Lightning Speed fee. In the fine print of the advertisement EarnIn discloses that ‘[f]ees apply to use Lightning Speed,’ a direct contradiction to the larger text of the advertisement, and a fact that would not be immediately understood by a consumer as ‘Lightning Speed’ is not defined nor explained. Like other small-dollar lending services, rather than explicitly charge interest, EarnIn collects a markup on the optional Lighting Speed fee, which, given the nature of the transactions, many users opt for, as well as offering users the option to leave “tips.” EarnIn leverages either Real-Time Payments (RTP) rails or push-to-card via debit rails if a user opts for the optional Lightning Speed. But while these capabilities cost EarnIn, on average, $0.075 or $0.20 per transaction, respectively, EarnIn charges users significantly more. Initially, EarnIn charged as little as $1.99 for Cash Outs up to $24. But EarnIn has hiked these fees multiple times, and now charges $4.99 for Cash Outs up to $75 and $6.99 for those over $75. According to the Colorado complaint, EarnIn leverages “dark patterns” to manipulate users and to make it more difficult to avoid tipping. Examples of these “road blocks” highlighted in the complaint include: As of 2023, in the EarnIn app, a consumer attempting to get a loan under the default settings had to make at least eighteen separate taps to complete the transaction and reduce the tip to $0. There is an alternative method to leave a $0 tip, via the “Custom tip” feature, but EarnIn made this option difficult to access by visually deemphasizing it and positioning it near devices’ “home” button. Using language and imagery such as “Tip to pay it forward,” “Your generosity supports the service + helps,” “Your tips make a difference,” and “[t]he APR for this cash out is 0%. Your tips help support us.” While Lightning Speed and tipping are, in theory, both optional, in practice, users nearly always ended up paying something. According to the Colorado suit, users were charged either a tip or an expedite fee for more than 92% of transactions, with an average APR of nearly 388%. And, although the advances are “non-recourse,” EarnIn successfully collects on nearly all transactions — 99.18%, according to the complaint, which, Colorado argues, “demonstrat[es] that EarnIn’s advances function as high cost loans, not voluntary payments.” The share of EarnIn users incurring fees — despite the product being marketed as 0% APR — is hard to reconcile with Andreessen investor Rampell’s favorable description of EarnIn vs. “opaque systems and steep fees” associated with payday loans, which, Rampell says, can be “extremely difficult” for borrowers to extricate themselves from. According to Colorado’s suit, EarnIn’s Cash Out product “trapped many consumers in extreme cycles of high-cost reborrowing.” The suit gives an example of one consumer in the state, who took out a whopping 1,151 loans, paying a total of $4,038.50 in Lightning Speed expedited funding fees on loans that averaged the equivalent of 1,421% APR. Another Colorado user, the suit says, took out 1,033 loans, paying $8,561.22 in tips and fees at an average APR of 1,539% . These types of usage patterns demonstrate “the severe and repeated financial harm caused by EarnIn’s illegal lending model,” the Colorado complaint argues. In aggregate, from January 2023 through July 2025, EarnIn extended 3.1 million loans to 56,778 users in Colorado — an average of nearly 55 transactions per person during the time period. EarnIn lent more than $300 million and collected more than $16 million from Colorado users in Lightning Speed fees and in tips. Ultimately, the Colorado complaint argues that “EarnIn’s Cash Outs are loans under Colorado law, and EarnIn’s contention that its product is not a loan based on its disclaimer of any legal repayment obligation lacks any real-world significance given how the Cash Out transactions actually operate in practice.” Colorado further argues that “EarnIn was not working with companies here in providing consumers with funds but acted as a third-party lender and charged illegally high rates, used deceptive design strategies to extract some charges, and trapped consumers in repeat borrowing. Colorado will continue to stand up for consumers and hold companies accountable when they violate our credit laws or attempt to evade them through misleading practices.” Colorado’s suit alleges EarnIn assesses finance charge in excess of that permitted by Colorado law, that EarnIn failed to make legally required disclosures to Colorado borrowers, that EarnIn made supervised loans to consumers without obtaining the requisite license, that EarnIn violated the state’s Deferred Deposit Loan Act, that EarnIn engage in unfair and deceptive trade practices, and that EarnIn made false or misleading statements concerning price. The suit seeks a court order enjoining EarnIn from violating relevant Colorado laws, for EarnIn to refund amounts charged in excess of state law, fees, costs, and penalties, and other relief the court deems to be just. Fintech Business Weekly is made possible by the generous support of paying subscribers — bringing you independent analysis of banking, fintech, and crypto without fear or favor. You can support my work by becoming a paying subscriber if you aren’t already. Paying subscribers enjoy: access to the entire archive of nearly six years of newsletters extended versions of the weekly newsletter, with additional content and analysis and (for founding member tier) quarterly personal 1:1 fintech Q&A / strategy calls with me, tapping into my unparalleled knowledge of the intersection of banking and fintech and experience working in the sector, including helping to launch Goldman Sachs’ retail bank Marcus Support Fintech Business Weekly You can also support Fintech Business Weekly by sponsoring a newsletter or podcast, putting you in front of 93,000+ of the most influential decision makers in banking, fintech, and crypto. Learn more about sponsor opportunities or request a media kit by dropping me an email. Q2 Quarterly Banking Profile: Five Quick Takeaways The FDIC released its quarterly banking profile, which is always worth a read, for the second quarter. The profile provides an aggregate snapshot about the overall health of the 4,238 institutions whose deposits are insured by the FDIC, who, collectively, hold more than $26 trillion in assets and saw a total net income of more than $90 billion in the second quarter. Net income was up 12% vs. Q1 2026, with lower provisions and realized gains on securities helping to drive the improvement, somewhat offset by increases in non-interest expense and applicable income taxes. Overall net interest margin was basically flat quarter over quarter (up 1 basis point vs. Q1 2026), though community banks saw NIM grow by 10 basis points, to 3.81%. Unsurprisingly, given that interest rates haven’t changed, unrealized losses on securities changed little, edging up slightly to $326.7 billion vs. $325.1 billion in Q1 2026. Aggregate credit quality has remained benign, with asset quality actually improving slightly in Q2. Overall, institutions reported a 9 basis point decline in their past-due and non-accrual rate, to 1.44%. Net charge off rate also declined by 2 basis points, to 0.57%. And finally, the FDIC’s deposit insurance fund stands at $161.1 billion, making the DIF reserve ratio 1.48% — above the statutory minimum of 1.35%, but still below the designated target reserve ratio of 2%. [Paid Subscriber Exclusive] Nissan Withdraws ILC App, State Associations Plan BankChain Alliance, FDIC Defines “Unsafe or Unsound Practice” For First Time Automaker Nissan withdrew its application to charter a Utah industrial loan company and its corresponding application to the FDIC for deposit insurance last week, on August 19th. Nissan’s application had been outstanding for more than a year, as it originally applied in June 2025. Recent applications to the OCC to form national banks have been decisioned, one way or the other, substantially more quickly than has historically been the case.
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