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How will the riots in France affect the country’s politics?
For weeks, people in France have been protesting over the cost of living and school conditions. But this weekend, many protests turned violent -- and now French officials have implemented a curfew to quell the violence. The country’s far-right is seizing the moment to make a case for their policies.This episode was produced by Sophia Paliza-Carre and Karen Zamora, with audio engineering by Damian Herring. Our director is Kathryn Fink.It was edited by Mallory Yu and Tinbete Ermyas.Our interim executive producer is Courtney Dorning.Support public media with NPR+ and enjoy perks for over 25 podcasts like this one. This show’s perks include bonus episodes and sponsor-free listening. Learn more at plus.npr.org.
Top business leaders sound the alarm over skilled worker shortage
From the people who keep us safe on the roads to those who wire our homes and are building the infrastructure powering the AI boom, America needs skilled workers. But a new report finds that the nation isn’t doing enough to keep up with demand. NBC’s Christine Romans sits down exclusively with BlackRock’s Larry Fink, Ford’s Jim Farley, Google’s Ruth Porat and Carhartt’s Linda Hubbard, who have come together with an urgent message.
Lexology Index Recognizes Five Hecker Fink Partners in 2026 Business Crime Defence Guide
Hecker Fink Partners Shawn Crowley, Jenna Dabbs, Mike Ferrara, Sean Hecker, and Amy Jeffress have been recognized in the Lexology Index guide for Business Crime Defence. The 2026 guide honors leading lawyers worldwide who “stand out among peers for their exceptional work representing companies, corporate officers, and individuals in criminal litigation arising from their business activities.”
Seyfarth Brings On Glaser Weil RE, Entertainment Pro In LA
Seyfarth Shaw LLP has added an attorney specializing in the intersection of real estate and the entertainment industry to its downtown Los Angeles office from Glaser Weil Fink Howard Jordan & Shapiro LLP.
Rethinking Medicare home health
Liran Einav, Amy Finkelstein, Yunan Ji, and Neale Mahoney examine the design of the Medicare home health benefit. They assess the program’s objectives and offer reforms to better meet these goals.
Luma locks down 15-year, $410M fund for life science investments
Luma Group today announced the final close of its inaugural life sciences venture capital fund, totaling $410 million. The New York-based investment firm has had a grip on life sciences since its founding in 2023. The funds unveiled today, dubbed LumaBio Fund I, include investments that have already been made into more than 10 biotechs. They include the likes of eye disease-focused Character Biosciences, rebranded Belgian biotech Coultreon Biopharma and cellular rejuvenation company Altos Labs. The fund saw early success when one of the companies it co-founded, called Vaccine Company, was picked up by Eli Lilly earlier this year for up to $1.55 billion. The acquisition of the in vivo nanoparticle technology-focused biotech formed part of a trio of vaccine buys for the Big Pharma, which has itself been on a prolonged spending spree in 2026. Luma's fund is structured as a 15-year investment with plans to support groundbreaking science and support companies through key milestones from discovery to commercialization, Luma explained in the release. "We founded Luma Group on the belief that extraordinary science, supported by patient, long-term capital, has the power to improve millions of lives," Joshua Fink, founder and managing member of Luma Group, said in the release. "This fund represents more than capital—it is a commitment to partnering with extraordinary innovators as they translate visionary science into life-changing medicines."
EU and ASEAN discuss health emergency preparedness and response
The Director-General of the European Commission’s Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority (HERA), Dr Florika Fink-Hooijer, met with the Secretary-General of ASEAN, Dr Kao Kim Hourn, in Jakarta on 4 September 2026 to discuss health emergency preparedness and response to emerging health threats, and to explore deeper cooperation between the EU and ASEAN. Both regions face similar challenges from emerging threats such as infectious diseases, which will further increase with climate change and increased travel, requiring global and regional cooperation. Both sides acknowledged that regional partnerships are essential to prepare for the next health emergency — it's a matter of when, not if. Building close EU-ASEAN cooperation on health emergency preparedness and response is therefore critical to ensuring a collective response, as we look ahead to the Commemorative Summit in 2027 marking the 50th anniversary of EU-ASEAN Dialogue Relations. Among other topics, discussions covered future partnership in the establishment and operations of the ASEAN Centre for Public Health Emergencies and Emerging Diseases (ACPHEED), as well as other key avenues for deeper collaboration.
HERA Director-General visits Indonesia to strengthen health cooperation
The Director-General of the European Commission’s Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority (HERA), Dr Florika Fink-Hooijer, met with Indonesia's Minister of Health, H.E. Budi Gunadi Sadikin, in Jakarta on 4 September 2026. Discussions centred on Indonesia's expansion of surveillance capacities, including genomic sequencing as well as local manufacturing capacity. There was a clear commitment to work together on wastewater surveillance going forward. Earlier that day, Director-General Fink-Hooijer, met with the Secretary-General of ASEAN, Dr Kao Kim Hourn, at the ASEAN Secretariat to discuss health emergency preparedness and response to emerging health threats, and to explore deeper cooperation between the EU and ASEAN. More info on the meeting at the ASEAN Secretariat: https://link.europa.eu/HdVV7q
Garfinkel steps away as Dolphins president. Sillman takes on larger role. Details
Dolphins announce changes in leadership. Here’s the team’s succession plan and more.
Tom Garfinkel Steps Away After Transformational 13-Year Tenure as President and CEO of Miami Dolphins
Garfinkel steps away from day-to-day responsibilities as Miami Dolphins President and CEO, will remain as Vice Chairman and partner in the Miami Grand Prix; Daniel Sillman named CEO of Ross Sports & Entertainment.
Tom Garfinkel Steps Away After Transformational 13-Year Tenure as President and CEO of Miami Dolphins
Garfinkel steps away from day-to-day responsibilities as Miami Dolphins President and CEO, will remain as Vice Chairman and partner in the Miami Grand Prix; Daniel Sillman named CEO of Ross Sports & Entertainment.
Pelosi, Rowe-Finkbeiner: We can fix health care, but Trump chooses Iran
Republicans triggered this health care crisis by slashing $1 trillion from Medicaid and failing to extend the Affordable Care Act premium tax credits.
2026 NBA Draft grades: Updating pick-by-pick analysis from AJ Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer through Round 2
Adam Finkelstein has the breakdown of each pick in one of the best drafts in recent memory
2026 NBA Draft Grades: Analysis for AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, Cameron Boozer, rest of first-round picks
Adam Finkelstein has the breakdown of each pick in one of the best drafts in recent memory
Political reporter Jack Fink gives inside look at election night operations
2026 NBA Draft Big Board: Michigan stars impressive at combine, Flory Bidunga falling in prospect rankings
Adam Finkelstein adjusts his Big Board after scouting prospects at last week's NBA Draft Combine
NBA Mock Draft: With 2026 lottery now set, AJ Dybantsa goes No. 1 to Wizards, Darryn Peterson No. 2 to Jazz
Adam Finkelstein's first mock draft after the NBA Draft Lottery set the order for the first 14 picks
Lessons on U.S. health care from 'The Pitt'
Many of the episodes in 'The Pitt' clearly point out the issues and problems with the American health care system
Democratic candidates for Texas lieutenant governor talk about their campaigns before the runoff, top issues
State Rep. Vikki Goodwin and labor leader Marcos Velez both spoke recently with Jack Fink.
Chad J. Thompson
Chad J. Thompson has joined Nicolaides Fink Thorpe Michaelides Sullivan LLP as chief operating officer.
BlackRock sees opportunity for growth in private credit "shakeout"
There may be some private credit losers in the future, but doesn't plan to be one of them. On their Q1 analyst call, Fink and co explained why they will win.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Mitchell Fink Dead: Entertainment Journalist, Gossip Columnist Was 82
He wrote for the Los Angeles Herald Examiner, People magazine and the New York Daily News and was a contributor to CNN’s ‘Showbiz Today.’
Mitchell Fink Dead: Gossip Columnist, Entertainment TV Personality Was 82
Mitchell Fink, a writer whose gossip columns and entertainment news was found on outlets like People and the New York Daily News, has died at 82.
Cracking the human simulation code: Aaru co-founders on refining the science of prediction
Cameron Fink, Aaru co-founder and CEO, Ned Koh, Aaru co-founder and president, and John Kessler, Aaru co-founder and CTO, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss the origins of the company, using AI to predict human behavior with higher accuracy and speed than traditional methods, and more.
3 stress signals show why investors are underpricing Iran war risks
Amova Asset Management's Naomi Fink thinks investors are looking at the Iran war market volatility all wrong, and it's not just a simple oil shock.
Michigan State business school to host ‘Rails to the Future' conference
TROY, Mich. — Michigan State University’s Eli Broad College of Business will host “Rails to the Future: 200 Year of Progress, Building What’s Next,” a conference featuring key rail industry officials May 11-13 at the MSU Management Education Center in Troy. Keynote speakers will include Federal Railroad Adminstration Administrator David Fink; Surface Transportation Board [...] Read More...
The world's business leaders are predicting some AI 'blow-ups'
At the DealBook Summit, Larry Fink, Dario Amodei, and other business leaders predicted that AI is here to stay — but not all the AI players are.