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There’s a Reason That Netflix’s Ad Business Has Underwhelmed
Somewhat lost in the company’s slew of firings and engagement warnings over the past few weeks was the fact that Netflix is scaling back its ad forecast for 2026 from $3 billion to $2.7 billion. That’s despite the fact that: CTV is growing by 14-15% this year This year saw a monster upfront Netflix is the biggest streamer out there this side of YouTube, and was the platform that for years brands were supposedly dying to be a part of In other words, that’s an alarming pull-back from Netflix. A Wall Street analyst I spoke with last week was blunt, calling Netflix’s ad business “disappointing.” To me, a red flag on the ad front is that Netflix has never revealed how many ad-supported subscribers it has. Because if I know anything about how big companies work, if they have a positive number that makes them look really good - they tend to share it. (How many subs does go90 have right now? We’re not saying just yet. How are ads going on ChatGPT? Oh, a billion run rate - I see). Yes, to date Netflix has shared some fuzzy ad numbers, such as the idea that the company’s ad tier ‘reaches’ 250 million users globally.’ Here’s why that figure gives me pause: a)they lead with global, and b) they don’t explain how they are calculated. (Are they based on average people in each room? Surveys of some kind?). Regardless, some insiders say that Netflix’s ad tier is scaling nicely - others not so much. Either way, one of Netflix’s biggest challenge on the ad front appears to have been its starting point. Remember, when Netflix launched ads in 2022, it had 73 million subs in the US and Canada. That’s 73 million people who were used to Netflix with zero ads. And when the ad product rolled out, the company clearly was going after new users - a limited pool of potential subscribers by default. That focus seems to have changed over time, as Netflix has tried to convert longtime subscribers to the ad tier. Historically Netflix subscribers are very sticky. But is the company’s low churn a problem? Not necessarily, according to Antenna data. Rather, Netflix’s consumer loyalty is a bit of a double-edged sword. “Netflix is the one streamer which actually has seen substantial “trade downs” but has much lower ‘win backs,’ said Antenna founder Jonathan Carson (win-backs being people who were on the ad-free plan, cancelled, then rejoined on the ad plan). “Netflix has lower churn and so has less opportunity to win back old subs with a lower cost plan option.” This all might explain why Netflix has been so slow to roll out all of these table stakes targeting options until just this week. It likely didn’t have enough users to carve up into various targets. etc. However, what really hit Netflix’s ad business was Amazon’s move a few years ago to turn on advertising for Prime Video by default. Suddenly the market was awash in premium inventory, and Netflix was playing catch-up on multiple fronts. Thus, the streaming giant appears to still be figuring out if if wants lead in ‘programmatic TV,’ or premium ‘upfront’ TV sales. “The CTV market now sorts into three businesses, and Netflix is not the leader of any of them,” wrote analyst Jack Myers. Ouch. So how does Netflix ratchet up its ads business? Get the next NFL package You’re gonna have to wait until 2030 unless one of the bigger media companies like Skydance opts out, but the easiest (not cheapest) way for Netflix to become a huge TV ads contender is to get one of the regular NFL packages, ideally Sunday afternoons. That way it can sell ads to its whole U.S. subs base overnight. Go FAST This one is risky, because to program a compelling FAST channel, you’d likely have to take some older Netflix exclusive shows and make them available for free to non-subscribers. But FASTs, for better or worse, are ad-inventory machines. Go full UGC I’m not sure I see this happening. There is something already off about Netflix carrying podcasts and shows for creators. The experience sticks out in what is such a produced, and generally non-communal environment. But Netflix could open up its platform by allowing creators to upload videos without having to be approved by the service. But that opens a whole other can of worms (policing brand safety, copyright infringement, overall quality). Make a huge RMN Deal I was going to suggest something crazy, such as ‘instead of buying Warner Brothers, Netflix should buy Target. But the company doesn’t want to be in the brick and mortar business. Yet for Netflix’s ad business to compete in an Amazon world, it needs to be able to connect ad exposures to shopping. What if, instead of letting Amazon target Netflix viewers with its DSP, Netflix inked a deal with Target, or even took control of Roundel, and created its version of the Amazon full-funnel for brands? Price us out. I hope they don’t do this, but Netflix’s price increases - while significant - haven’t been enough to push long-term customers out of the ad-free tier. But if they made those prices so prohibitive, it could push large swaths of consumers to trade down. Then again, that could also dent engagement - as binging becomes much less appealing once you bring ads into the equation. Or, they could just launch a bunch of hit shows and maybe everyone will quickly forget all this angst. More from Amazon unBoxed A few weeks ago, I recorded two podcasts live at Amazon’s unBoxed event in San Francisco. I was able to go really deep with several brand partners about how Amazon’s various data and ad products work - particularly the under appreciated Amazon Marketing Cloud. First, I talked with Laura Abadias Velilla, of the Amazon specialty agency Amerge, along with Amazon’s own Charlotte Maines, Vice President, Devices Content & Advertising, about how the two partners helped a very specific printer company Epson launch into a brand new category - high end projectors. It’s a great example of how brands connect audience data across platforms to make budget deployment decisions. Next, I chatted with Monks VP Head of Digital Investment for North America Tom Burchill about how the agency actually brought in data from Linkedin to help target B2B customers across various Amazon properties for the brand Quicken. Check it out: Check these out, or just listen:
Alabama Football 2026 vs Texas A&M: Previewing the Aggie Defense
A Mike Elko defense may not be the best thing for a “get right” game for the Alabama offense.
Staff Predictions: Michigan Football vs Indiana
In this week’s Roundtable, we discuss the QB change, takeaways from last week’s win, bold predictions for the Indiana game, and much more:
FDA Should Practice the Science It Preaches
The FDA has plenty of advice for pharmaceutical companies. It publishes guidance documents, establishes scientific expectations, and expects drug developers to explain themselves when they take a diff...
Financial Side Of Nix’s Struggles Comes With Major Ramifications
Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix has been tracking toward a big extension, but that could be changing.
TENNESSEE VOLS FOOTBALL: UT set for roadtrip to South Carolina
Tennessee football is looking to continue its momentum against South Carolina
USC women’s basketball ranked No. 3 in preseason AP Poll
Expectations are certainly very high for the Women of Troy this season, as evidenced by their preseason ranking
Dave Toub addresses plans to work on Harrison Butker's mechanics
During Thursday's press conference, Kansas City Chiefs coordinator Dave Toub addressed plans to work on Harrison Butker's mechanics | @EdEastonJr
The El Clásico quiz, how much do you know?
El Clásico is this weekend, and you can feel the excitement. To get you in the mood and warmed up, here’s the El Clásico Quiz so you can show how much you know about this rivalry. Who do you thi...
Everton's Trip to Arsenal: Opposition View as Thierno Barry Praised
Everton travel to the Emirates to face Arsenal in the Premier League, and we looked to get some more insight from north London.
Giants' Cutthroat Najee Harris Move is Surprisingly Refreshing
The New York Giants' decision to cut Najee Harris this week was surprisingly refreshing.
Bogdan Bogdanović Could Steal Reed Sheppard’s Minutes in Houston
As the Rockets are laser-focused on their postseason success, Ime Udoka might lean more on Houston’s veteran offseason addictions. See how that can impact a young star on the rise, and why it all might be a part of the plan in H-Town.
Tennessee Titans news: A chance at a win streak
The Tennessee Titans are making a run for another victory in Week 7.
Chiefs News: George Karlaftis is leading the Chiefs’ defense
The latest Chiefs news, brought fresh to you every morning!
Chelsea vs. Tottenham Hotspur Premier League Preview
A one-match win streak is unlikely to become two.
Gov. JB Pritzker doling out big bucks to help Democrats — and boost a 2028 presidential run
Pritzker is taking out $40 million from his vast personal wealth to boost candidates in contentious races, and building coalitions with Democrats across the country, including in 2028 early primary states. "It's a terrific strategy," says former presidential candidate Howard Dean.
24-team playoff will ruin college football’s regular season
A 24-team tournament rewards college football’s biggest brands and gives programs such as Notre Dame little reason to schedule tougher games.
Arsenal women confirmed for new FIFA tournament starting in 2028
The 2028 tournament will bring together 19 clubs from around the world, with Arsenal qualifying through their Champions League success.Photo by Harry Murphy/Getty ImagesArsenal will take part in the f...
Public health experts warn lawmakers may politicize spending of opioid settlement funds
Public health experts warn that future opioid-related settlement dollars could go to waste following a decision by West Virginia Attorney General JB McCuskey in 2026 to give lawmakers the power to distribute most of those funds.
Trump ramps up fraud investigations of immigrants as election approaches
The White House is turning anti-fraud initiatives into a central weapon in its efforts to curb both legal and illegal immigration.
Muslims have always had to prove our Americanness. Enter Abdul El-Sayed
Michigan’s Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate, Abdul El-Sayed, is many things to many people.
Catapult Books is being sold and its L.A. authors are mourning
Catapult Books has sold its assets to an undisclosed buyer, leaving the future of 16 scheduled titles uncertain as staff negotiate a severance package.
Many Latinos are over Trump. The shift is especially striking in Texas
Latino voters are souring on the GOP, fueled by frustration over rising costs and the Trump administration’s aggressive approach to immigration enforcement.
Official statement
Santos FC would like to clarify that, due to construction work in the Ground-Level Stands, 437 seats will be closed for this Saturday’s match against Bahia.As a result, Vila Belmiro’s total capaci...
Friday's BR 26, BuLi on OneFootball and +; today's fixtures 📲
Today's highlights 🔥Bundesliga (German League)15:30 – Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach – OneFootball PPV Série A (Brazilian League)20:00 – Cruzeiro vs Remo – SporTV, Premiere Premier...
Fremantle Global Entertainment Exec Chris O’Dell Retires After 19 Years At ‘Got Talent’ Maker
Chris O’Dell, one of Fremantle’s longest-serving entertainment execs, is retiring from the Got Talent and X Factor company. He has been at RTL-owned Fremantle since 2007 and left just shy of 20 years ...
Prince William, wannabe DJ and film-lover, appears on UK chat show
LONDON, Oct 23 (Reuters) - Prince William talked about his love of Christopher Nolan films and how he once wanted to be a DJ as he appeared on a British
More analysts believe Titans should be sellers at trade deadline
The 1-5 Tennessee Titans face a pivotal trade deadline as experts suggest selling key players to build for the future.
Brazil's runoff: Lula's legacy vs. Bolsonaro's dynasty
Brazil's tight presidential runoff pits a political giant against a Bolsonaro heir in a battle over the country's political future.
NFL tells teams that uncalled hip-drop tackle on Aaron Rodgers was clear example of penalty
Republican gerrymanders in Texas threaten to fall flat, poll finds
Democrats have strong chances in two key congressional seats, new Post-Schar School poll finds.
6 winners and losers from Patriots’ loss to the Bears
Drake Maye, Hunter Henry, and other noteworthy players from Week 7.
Forest's start raises questions - but belief in Glasner remains
Nottingham Forest go to Ipswich in the bottom three of the Premier League, but boss Oliver Glasner believes they have deserved more this season.
Parkview Health keeps securing more partnerships
The Indiana health system reached another hospital affiliation agreement with Goshen Health and is planning to acquire Ovation Healthcare.
Budget 2026: What might the Chancellor do on business rates?
Rating experts at Colliers anticipate five significant changes
Photos: Best images from Thunder's 96-84 win over Nuggets
The best photos from the Oklahoma City Thunder's 96-84 win over the Denver Nuggets.
What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas for England
England face Australia at the Women's Rugby League World Cup on Saturday determined to show they have moved on from the nightmare of their last meeting in Las Vegas 19 months ago.
School district postpones athletics hall of fame ceremony
Dayton Public Schools announced that they are postponing the inaugural Dayton Public Schools Athletics Hall of Fame ceremony.
The Tricky Convergence of Democratic Socialism and Civil Rights
Some worry that a new generation of progressives threatens the coalitions that opened government to historically excluded communities. But there’s plenty for them to learn from each other.
Jazz Chisholm Jr & Two Other Yankees Refused Analytics Help
The New York Yankees continue to find more reasons to make changes after the disappointing ALDS exit. Most MLB teams have analytics teams to help the players make changes, including the Yankees under General Manager Brian Cashman. Jazz Chisholm Jr was one of three players who reportedly refused to listen to these suggestions and ignore […] The post Jazz Chisholm Jr & Two Other Yankees Refused Analytics Help appeared first on HEAVY.
REPORT: Packers Sniffing Around Trade For All-Pro DT
The Green Bay Packers have made calls inquiring about the availability of Indianapolis Colts defensive tackle DeForest Buckner The post REPORT: Packers Sniffing Around Trade For All-Pro DT appeared first on HEAVY.
Cardinals’ Jeremiyah Love Faces Uncertainty After Latest Injury Update
The Arizona Cardinals may be shorthanded once again at the running back position, with rookie Jeremiyah Love battling an injury. The post Cardinals’ Jeremiyah Love Faces Uncertainty After Latest Injury Update appeared first on HEAVY.
Hunter Henry leads Pats with seven receptions
Hunter Henry tallied a team-high seven receptions for 71 yards against the Chicago Bears in Week 7.
Postpartum recovery may influence long-term maternal aging and health
Jesse Poganik, PhD, of the Division of Genetics within the Department of Medicine at Mass General Brigham, is the senior author of a paper published in Trends in Endocrinology & Metabolism, "The Postpartum Recovery Window as a Determinant of Maternal Aging." Stephen Albright, formerly of Mass General Brigham, is the lead author.
Another disappointing showing for A.J. Brown
A.J. Brown was targeted six times in Week 7, catching half of them for 48 yards in a loss to the Chicago Bears.
TreVeyon Henderson invisible on Thursday night
TreVeyon Henderson had just five combined touches on Thursday night, finishing with a season-low 23 yards versus the Bears.
Immigrant priest struggles with health issues after ICE detention
Cole Kmet exits Week 7 game against New England
Chicago Bears TE Cole Kmet unable to return against Patriots after injuring knee
Giorgia Meloni is Italy’s great political survivor. Could one man be about to bring her down?
With elections looming in 2027, Roberto Vannacci’s new far-right movement could fatally outflank the prime minister, says Riccardo Alcaro, head of research at Istituto Affari Internazionali
Ham: LaVine Hits ‘DeMar DeRozan Moment’ in Kings Tenure
Despite looming trade rumors, Zach LaVine is embracing a veteran leadership role in Sacramento, delivering efficient scoring while mentoring a young core during a pivotal contract year.
Laurel Sports Hall of Fame holds ceremony for inaugural class
Laurel Sports Hall of Fame holds ceremony for inaugural class
Steelers climb AFC playoff standings after Bears defeat Patriots
Steelers climb playoff standings after Patriots’ loss to Bears.
Patrick Mahomes practicing Thursday
No limitations for Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes Thursday
How Aggressive Should Toronto Blue Jays Be Before Lockout?
How teams will act before Dec. 2 will be very interesting to see.
No practice for Deebo Samuel
Hamstring issue keeps San Francisco 49ers WR Deebo Samuel sidelined
Tom Izzo Unloads on Trey Kaufman-Renn’s Sixth-Year Ruling
Tom Izzo did not hold back on the court ruling that sent Trey Kaufman-Renn to Kansas. #Spartans
Oakland Coliseum hopes to become new sports, entertainment hub
The Bay Area's Local News Station
High school flag football: Wednesday and Thursday scores
CIF City Section high school girls' flag football scores for Wednesday and Thursday.
Thursday Night Football: Luther Burden, Bears lead Patriots 20-14 at halftime
Celtics Get Mixed Injury News Ahead of Knicks Showdown
The Celtics receive mixed injury news ahead of their home opener against the Knicks, with one former first-round pick ruled out. The post Celtics Get Mixed Injury News Ahead of Knicks Showdown appeared first on HEAVY.
Local business owners trained by OpenAI share thoughts on $20 billion data center
Small business owners who took part in a training session with OpenAI are sharing their thoughts on the company’s $20 billion data center project planned for Effingham County.
Fire breaks out at vacant Lancaster County business
A fire was reported at a vacant Lancaster County business on Thursday night.
Washington Nationals Decline to Renew Strength Coaches' Contracts
The Washington Nationals have elected to not renew the contracts of five strength and conditioning coaches following the 2026 regular season
One Bad Quarter Hurts Jazz in Season Opener
A dismal second-quarter collapse and Ty Jerome’s 45-point masterclass doomed Utah in Memphis, exposing critical defensive lapses and rebounding woes the Jazz must fix before their home opener.
2027 NFL Draft: Chargers mock draft update
The Chargers currently hold the No. 1 overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft and we updated our Los Angeles mock draft with an eye on the offense.
Matthew Golden limited Thursday
Green Bay Packers WR Matthew Golden dealing with shoulder injury
‘Expendable’ Buffalo Bills WR Named NFL’s Top Trade Candidate
"Expendable" $30 million Bills WR called NFL's top trade candidate. The post ‘Expendable’ Buffalo Bills WR Named NFL’s Top Trade Candidate appeared first on HEAVY.
50 Cent allegedly bailed out suspect accused of assaulting Rick Ross' son
50 Cent allegedly bailed out a 20-year-old man identified in police filings as Don Roberts, who is accused of pistol-whipping Rick Ross’ son, 21-year-old William Roberts III. The two rappers have been feuding since the late 2000s.
Jeremiyah Love remains sidelined Thursday
Arizona Cardinals RB Jeremiyah Love still dealing with ankle injury
Packers Express Interest in Another Colts Defensive Tackle
As Indianapolis begins a fire sale, Green Bay is aggressively hunting for veteran interior pressure to bolster its defensive front and solidify a serious Super Bowl push.
Dak Prescott: Cowboys Media Scrutiny Comes With the Territory
The Cowboys are off to a rocky 2–4 start.
NFL Hall of Famer Marshall Faulk reveals he's been diagnosed with Parkinson's disease
The seven-time Pro Bowler emphasized the importance of getting diagnosed early.
DeVonta Smith misses first practice for week
Eagles WR DeVonta Smith sidelined because of his hamstring injury
Stanford vs. NC State Preview: Will Cardinal Keep Momentum Rolling?
Coming off a 34-7 win over Elon, the Cardinal host the Wolfpack on Friday night, looking to keep their bowl hopes alive.
Another limited practice for Adonai Mitchell
Jets WR Adonai Mitchell may be back in lineup after back-to-back limited practices
Bellevue-Based Business Receives National Recognition
OneFarStar LLC, the Bellevue-based parent company of Millie’s Sipping Broth, has been named among the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s 2026 CO—100.
'Heated Rivalry' is coming to Regal, AMC and Cinemark theaters
'Heated Rivalry' — with commentary from Jacob Tierney, the show's creator, writer and director — is coming to theaters for Season 1 screenings.
Teresa Rand named News-Journal's 'Most Influential Woman in Business'
Shades of pink filled a conference room in The Shores Resort & Spa on Oct. 22 as businesswomen from Volusia and Flagler counties gathered to celebrate a long-running Daytona Beach News-Journal tradition.
OPD: Package found at business not suspicious
Authorities responded Thursday afternoon to a report of suspicious package at an Omaha business.
UW-Oshokosh business students launch new coffee cart
UW-Oshokosh business students launch new coffee cart
Liev Schreiber scolds Apple TV reporter on 'Nocturne' red carpet
A bystander video showed Liev Schreiber scolding a female reporter while on the red carpet promoting his Apple TV series "Nocturne."
A Look at the Pittsburgh Pirates’ Pending Free Agents
The Pittsburgh Pirates have a key player set to become a free agent this offseason.
OPINION: Miami Heat Should Target Free Agent Shooting Guard
Following a dismal long-range shooting performance on opening night, the Miami Heat could look for a veteran marksman to restore the team's perimeter threat.
Five Steps for BYU to Avoid Letdown vs. UCF
Exhale. What a weekend in Provo. From College Gameday to storming the field as the final pass fell incomplete to beat No. 2 Notre Dame, that was perhaps the single most perfect day in the history of BYU sports. The task at hand? Shake off the cobwebs. Get the celebratory Swig out of your system […]
USA TODAY Sports/AVCA Super 25 girls volleyball rankings, late October
These 25 girls high school volleyball teams top the nation in the latest USA TODAY/AVCA poll.
Cuyahoga County voters weigh Issue 11 health and human services levy
Issue 11 in Cuyahoga County supports a levy for the county-run Department of Health and Human Services.
Why Giants Should Part Ways With Adrian Houser
The San Francisco Giants are on the hook to pay Adrian Houser more money in 2027, but his production does not justify it.
Blessing Health to host free Medicare presentation
Medicare open enrollment is happening now. On Tuesday, Oct. 27 Blessing Health System is hosting a free informational presentation for those who have questions about enrollment.
SCENE VIDEO: Suspicious package reported at Omaha machine business
Omaha Police and Fire responded Thursday afternoon to the scene at Grede Casting Integrity, on Martha Street, just east of Highway 75.
Brewers Owner Joins Push for MLB Salary Cap and Floor
The long-tenured Brewers owner offered vigorous support of a salary cap.