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Duke Endowment makes big investment in NC Children’s hospital
By Anne Blythe Key Takeaways: On a heavily wooded tract near the intersection of U.S. 1 and N.C. 540 — a 220-acre spot in southern Apex so void of infrastructure it shows up only as GPS coordinates on a map, the Duke Endowment announced a transformative $100 million grant Tuesday morning. The investment will help […]
Duke-UNC children’s hospital receives $100 million award from The Duke Endowment
The project is a collaboration between Duke Health and UNC Health to develop North Carolina’s first standalone children’s hospital, known as NC Children's Hospital. The $100 million grant marks one more step toward the planned facility’s $1 billion private fundraising goal.
Great Lakes Science Center’s Robotics Initiative receives $1 million gift
A $1 million endowment from the Thomas F. Peterson Jr. Charitable Trust will fund robotics education and 3-D printed prosthetics for those in need.
Harvard's SpaceX bet helped its endowment grow faster than the S&P 500
Harvard's endowment grew to nearly $68 billion, helped by the university's $2.2 billion stake in SpaceX at the end of June.
Turkmenistan’s Ruling Duo Is Having a Family Feud. Will Their Regime Survive It?
Ex-president Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov remains interested in politics, but his son Serdar, Turkmenistan’s current president, is becoming increasingly independent and willing to break with his father’s legacy. If their covert rivalry goes too far, both risk losing power.
APSU alumna creates Tom Cunningham Family Endowment for business students
Austin Peay State University alumna Tammy Cunningham made a generous donation to establish the Tom Cunningham Family Endowment for APSU business students.
UW-Oshkosh celebrates naming of Mary Novak-Jandrey College of Nursing, Health Professions and STEM - UW-Oshkosh Today
UW-Oshkosh is celebrating the naming of the Mary Novak-Jandrey College of Nursing, Health Professions and STEM, honoring the nursing alumna's historic $10 million endowment gift.
Lee Health Establishes Dr. Larry Antonucci Scholarship Endowment Fund to Honor Legacy of Leadership and Service
Commitment of $250,000 to Support Employee Education and Professional Development FORT MYERS, Fla. (Sept. 29, 2026) – The Lee Health Foundation Board of Trustees in partnership with the Lee Health Board of Directors is proud to announce the creation of the Dr. Larry Antonucci Scholarship Endowment Fund, establishing a permanent legacy honoring the visionary leadership, […]
Bradbury Art Museum receives 'Big Read' grant
The Bradbury Art Museum (BAM) at Arkansas State University has been awarded a 2026–27 National Endowment for the Arts (NEA) Big Read grant, making it the only organization in Arkansas...
Cherokee Nation Foundation Awards Behavioral Health
The Cherokee Nation Foundation has awarded five scholarships to students pursuing degrees in behavioral health. The Cherokee Nation Behavioral Health Scholarship is supported by a permanent $5 million endowment established through the Public Health and Wellness Fund Act, proposed by Principal Chief Chuck Hoskin Jr. and Deputy Chief Bryan Warner. “We worked hand in hand […]
Health Care Partnership outlines workforce progress
More local nursing graduates are staying in the region, according to officials offering an update on the progress of the New Hanover Healthcare Career Partnership at a public forum last night. According to Jack Watson, dean of UNCW’s College of Health & Human Services, the number of UNCW nursing graduates choosing to remain in the area after graduation has climbed from 27% to the mid-40% range. The New Hanover Healthcare Career Partnership aims to address the region’s healthcare worker shortage, with a key focus on nursing through strategic partnerships between UNCW, Cape Fear Community College (CFCC), New Hanover County Schools and the Wilmington Chamber of Commerce Foundation. "Each of the partners had pathway programs,” said Watson, “but they were almost at times done in a silo." One of the New Hanover Community Endowment's largest commitments to date, the collaborative received a $22.3 million grant in 2023, to be disbursed over three years, beginning in 2024. At the public forum, leadership addressed the nursing bottleneck created by the pandemic, and Laurie Whalin, president of the Novant Health Coastal Region, acknowledged that Novant Health had relied heavily on travel nurses during that period, with travel nurses making up about 47% of staff and nursing turnover at 35% at the height of the pandemic. "I can say we are in a tremendously different place today,” Whalin said at the forum. The number of travel nurses employed by the Novant Health Coastal Region has dropped to around 100 today, which Whalin says accounts for less than 4% of the workforce. Roughly two years into the grant term, major stakeholders in the collaboration pointed to various accomplishments tied to the initiative. According to Stephen Hill, vice president of talent development with the Greater Wilmington Chamber of Commerce, 250 more nurses live in New Hanover County in 2026 than in 2023. Whalin added that between 2021 and 2025, the Novant Health Coastal Region has hired close to 1,200 registered nurses. Additionally, according to Whalin, over the past two years, hiring and retention of nursing graduates from UNCW increased by 103%, while hiring and retention of nursing graduates from CFCC increased by 70%. Mandy Mills, director of career & technical education at New Hanover County Schools, pointed to the launch of its first Health Sciences Academy program, established across the county's four traditional high schools (Hoggard High School, Laney High School, Ashley High School and New Hanover High School), which started with 38 students last year. Mills also pointed to growth in the district’s Nursing Fundamentals course, which grew from 10 seats in 2023 to 50 in 2025-2026 and is now offered at all four traditional high schools. Watson emphasized the growing nursing class sizes and offered an update on the school’s accelerated nursing degree, which launched last year. Eleven students graduated in the first class, and all passed their boards on the first try, Watson said. This year’s class has 24 students. When the endowment announced its $22.3 million grant for the collaborative in 2023, UNCW and CFCC were each slated to receive the bulk of the funds, at about $10 million each. UNCW’s plans for the grant money included expanding its simulation lab, Watson said. He added that construction is expected to begin on the simulation lab this year and will likely extend through next year. According to Mary Ellen Naylor, dean of Health & Human Services at CFCC, the college has experienced growth in its associate degree nursing retention, rising from 59% in 2023 to 76% for the May 2026 class. CFCC used part of its endowment funding to support wraparound services, including a housing stipend, tuition assistance, exam assistance, emergency assistance, drop-in daycare and clinical and educational supplies. "We have very strong … students, but once they get into the program, there are competing priorities,” Naylor said. “They are working multiple jobs. They have children. They're single parents." According to Naylor, in 2026, 94% of students who used support services are still enrolled or have graduated. Addressing a question from an audience member about an approaching “enrollment cliff,” driven largely by dropping birth rates, Watson and Naylor said demand remains strong at both schools. “Right now … we do have more applicants than we have spots in our nursing program, and it is still a competitive process to get into,” Watson said. “I do not foresee that changing.” "(We've) doubled enrollment in our nursing programs over the last few years, but just as Dean Watson said, we still have very robust applicant pools, so it is still very competitive to get in,” Naylor said. "We have the applicant pool to support that, but again, it's not as easy as just saying, 'Okay … we're going to take another 90 students.' It's making sure all the resources and infrastructure that we need to educate the students outside the classroom is there as well." In response to a question about applying the collaborative model to other healthcare positions besides nursing, Sophie Dagenais, CEO and president of the endowment, said she sees the potential for the model to expand to other healthcare jobs and even other industries, but that the endowment hopes to learn from this model first. “This is a grant that is in year two of three years, and first we wanted to learn what is this going to demonstrate, what will we learn and then how may we scale it possibly,” she said. According to endowment spokesperson Amber Rogerson, funds for the program are set to expire after June 2027. “It's too early to discuss what happens after that,” wrote Rogerson in an email, “though we know the partners are considering the future, and some of the work supported by the grants is now built into their regular operations.”
Health Care Partnership outlines workforce progress
More local nursing graduates are staying in the region, according to officials offering an update on the progress of the New Hanover Healthcare Career Partnership at a public forum last night. According to Jack Watson, dean of UNCW’s College of Health & Human Services, the number of UNCW nursing graduates choosing to remain in the area after graduation has climbed from 27% to the mid-40% range. The New Hanover Healthcare Career Partnership aims to address the region’s healthcare worker shortage, with a key focus on nursing through strategic partnerships between UNCW, Cape Fear Community College (CFCC), New Hanover County Schools and the Wilmington Chamber of Commerce Foundation. "Each of the partners had pathway programs,” said Watson, “but they were almost at times done in a silo." One of the New Hanover Community Endowment's largest commitments to date, the collaborative received a $22.3 million grant in 2023, to be disbursed over three years, beginning in 2024. At the public forum, leadership addressed the nursing bottleneck created by the pandemic, and Laurie Whalin, president of the Novant Health Coastal Region, acknowledged that Novant Health had relied heavily on travel nurses during that period, with travel nurses making up about 47% of staff and nursing turnover at 35% at the height of the pandemic. "I can say we are in a tremendously different place today,” Whalin said at the forum. The number of travel nurses employed by the Novant Health Coastal Region has dropped to around 100 today, which Whalin says accounts for less than 4% of the workforce. Roughly two years into the grant term, major stakeholders in the collaboration pointed to various accomplishments tied to the initiative. According to Stephen Hill, vice president of talent development with the Greater Wilmington Chamber of Commerce, 250 more nurses live in New Hanover County in 2026 than in 2023. Whalin added that between 2021 and 2025, the Novant Health Coastal Region has hired close to 1,200 registered nurses. Additionally, according to Whalin, over the past two years, hiring and retention of nursing graduates from UNCW increased by 103%, while hiring and retention of nursing graduates from CFCC increased by 70%. Mandy Mills, director of career & technical education at New Hanover County Schools, pointed to the launch of its first Health Sciences Academy program, established across the county's four traditional high schools (Hoggard High School, Laney High School, Ashley High School and New Hanover High School), which started with 38 students last year. Mills also pointed to growth in the district’s Nursing Fundamentals course, which grew from 10 seats in 2023 to 50 in 2025-2026 and is now offered at all four traditional high schools. Watson emphasized the growing nursing class sizes and offered an update on the school’s accelerated nursing degree, which launched last year. Eleven students graduated in the first class, and all passed their boards on the first try, Watson said. This year’s class has 24 students. When the endowment announced its $22.3 million grant for the collaborative in 2023, UNCW and CFCC were each slated to receive the bulk of the funds, at about $10 million each. UNCW’s plans for the grant money included expanding its simulation lab, Watson said. He added that construction is expected to begin on the simulation lab this year and will likely extend through next year. According to Mary Ellen Naylor, dean of Health & Human Services at CFCC, the college has experienced growth in its associate degree nursing retention, rising from 59% in 2023 to 76% for the May 2026 class. CFCC used part of its endowment funding to support wraparound services, including a housing stipend, tuition assistance, exam assistance, emergency assistance, drop-in daycare and clinical and educational supplies. "We have very strong … students, but once they get into the program, there are competing priorities,” Naylor said. “They are working multiple jobs. They have children. They're single parents." According to Naylor, in 2026, 94% of students who used support services are still enrolled or have graduated. Addressing a question from an audience member about an approaching “enrollment cliff,” driven largely by dropping birth rates, Watson and Naylor said demand remains strong at both schools. “Right now … we do have more applicants than we have spots in our nursing program, and it is still a competitive process to get into,” Watson said. “I do not foresee that changing.” "(We've) doubled enrollment in our nursing programs over the last few years, but just as Dean Watson said, we still have very robust applicant pools, so it is still very competitive to get in,” Naylor said. "We have the applicant pool to support that, but again, it's not as easy as just saying, 'Okay … we're going to take another 90 students.' It's making sure all the resources and infrastructure that we need to educate the students outside the classroom is there as well." In response to a question about applying the collaborative model to other healthcare positions besides nursing, Sophie Dagenais, CEO and president of the endowment, said she sees the potential for the model to expand to other healthcare jobs and even other industries, but that the endowment hopes to learn from this model first. “This is a grant that is in year two of three years, and first we wanted to learn what is this going to demonstrate, what will we learn and then how may we scale it possibly,” she said. According to endowment spokesperson Amber Rogerson, funds for the program are set to expire after June 2027. “It's too early to discuss what happens after that,” wrote Rogerson in an email, “though we know the partners are considering the future, and some of the work supported by the grants is now built into their regular operations.”
$1 Million Fellowship in Coffee Science Established at UC Davis
The Specialty Coffee Association, or SCA, and the University of California, Davis, announced the establishment of the Specialty Coffee Association Endowed Fellowship in Coffee Science, made possible by a $1 million gift from the SCA to support graduate coffee research at the UC Davis Coffee Center, a center of excellence in the College of Engineering.
$1 Million Fellowship in Coffee Science Established at UC Davis
A $1 million endowment from the Specialty Coffee Association will provide lasting support for graduate researchers at the UC Davis Coffee Center and help prepare future leaders in coffee science.
Spartanburg Regional Healthcare System receives Duke Endowment grant to support maternal and infant health
Spartanburg Regional Healthcare System has been awarded nearly $1.6 million from The Duke Endowment to participate in the Maternal Infa
Exclusive: Two of gaming’s biggest names are making a big investment in gaming’s future
The first thing to know about the Nova Games Foundation is that it isn’t about The Game Awards. And it’s not about PlayStation. The ambitious new grant program is the brainchild of Geoff Keighley and Mark Cerny. Keighley is the host of The Game Awards, Summer Game Fest and Opening Night Live. Cerny is a game designer of some 45 years and the lead architect for the PlayStation 4 and 5. But this new thing, which they’re revealing through Game File, isn’t about their day jobs. It’s an unaffiliated, standalone philanthropic project. It’s a bet on the artistic future of video games and a way, they tell me, to give back. “I’m nearing the end of my career,” Cerny recently told me over email. “I’m not done yet, but paying it forward—in the best way possible—is very much on my mind these days,” The Nova Games Foundation is a university-affiliated fellowship program, intended to offer six-figure grants to 20 young game designers each year, potentially for decades to come. It will offer no-strings-attached funding along with mentorship from games industry leaders, a combination intended to aid the development of groundbreaking new games, Cerny and Keighley told me. Nova will begin accepting applications in December, from class of 2026 and 2027 students from 13 affiliated gaming programs at universities in eight countries. The schools working with Nova include the New York University and the University of Southern California in the U.S., along with Abertay University in Scotland, Cnam-Enjmin in France, TH Köln in Germany, and the Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology in Australia, Cerny and Keighley said. The plan: $100,000 per recipient, with about a quarter of Nova fellows eligible for up to $500,000 more for projects that are shaping up particularly well. Payments will be delivered based on development milestones, and recipients will own their games. Nova will help promote the work, and developers will be free to pursue the publishers and platforms of their choice. Nova can help introduce fellows to publishers, but won’t take a cut. “I’ve always wanted to give back, but given my role in the industry, I’ve never felt it appropriate to commercially invest in games,” Keighley told Game File. “I’ve never owned stock in a game company or taken a financial stake in a game. Nova is philanthropy: we aren’t taking equity or looking to recoup the grants. The return we’re hoping for is creative—helping new voices make games and find their footing. “Mark and I have each made multi-million-dollar donations to establish the foundation, and we intend to keep contributing. We hope others will join us.” Cerny and Keighley have already hired an executive director, John Maconga, and a head of grants, recent Game Developers Conference director Ashley Corrigan, to help launch the effort. They’re working to recruit game industry leaders to join the effort. Keighley says “dozens of leading game directors have already expressed interest in contributing their time.” To name one, they’ve already gotten Josef Fares, lead designer from It Takes Two and Spit Fiction studio Hazelight on board with a donation and pledge to help out. “I’m proud to support Nova because it gives the next generation of creators the freedom to explore their creativity and hopefully bring their unique visions to life,” Fares told Game File. A plan forged from a friendship Keighley and Cerny have known each other a long time. It’s been so long, Cerny isn’t even sure exactly when they met. “We travel in much the same circles and I’m sure first intersected in the 90s or early 2000s,“ Cerny said. Keighley thinks it might have been during his stint writing a column about the mid-’90s console 3DO for a gaming magazine while Cerny was working on games with Crystal Dynamics or on Way of the Warrior with Naughty Dog. They became genuine friends about a 10 years ago, Keighley said, as they bonded over a shared love of games and a hope to improve the industry. “About a decade ago, we started having dinner a few times a year in LA,” Keighley said. “Just to catch up on life and the industry. Those conversations continued over Zoom during COVID. Nova grew out of that friendship and a question we kept coming back to: ‘What could we do to help the next generation of game directors get started?’” Keighley credits Cerny with the idea to figure out a way to put their money and time back into the industry. At one of those dinners, Keighley proposed the idea of a fellowship program. He’d recalled applying for a Rhodes Scholarship when he was younger. “Spoiler: I didn’t get it,” he said. He’d admired the MacArthur Foundation’s so-called “genius grants.” He liked these kinds of programs that recognized people’s talents and gave them the financial boost and the freedom to realize their potential. With Cerny, he had pondered what a game industry version of that could be. Keighley liked the idea of centering the fellowship on students, drawing inspiration from the accomplishments of Jenova Chen, the USC game design graduate who went on to lead the creation of gently moving, ambitious games such as Flower and Journey. Keighley also thought it could be useful to help promising graduates bridge the transition from student to professional. “Joining an established studio isn’t always possible—especially in today’s market—and even then, it isn’t the right path for everyone,” Keighley said. A fellowship, he realized, could give “graduates the time, resources and guidance to pursue a game of their own and not worry about the commercial viability.” As the idea took shape, Cerny also saw an opportunity to enable more games of a certain type: “The target with the grants is games as an artistic medium,” Cerny told me. “We like to say games with ‘artistic, literary and societal value.’” He added: “I’m a pretty big gamer myself, though I tend to gravitate towards the smaller and more unique or artistic titles, games like Neva, Abzu, Gorogoa, Stray or Outer Wilds. I was just playing and Roger on a flight to Japan, and was getting misty eyed to a degree that I was concerned that a flight attendant would ask me if I was OK. “So one fun benefit here is the games that will come out of the Nova Games Foundation – I can’t wait to play them myself.” Cerny believes it will also be useful for Nova fellows to hone their craft and team leadership skills. “We are looking for the next generation of visionaries,” he said. “The trick is that they will also need to have the executive function necessary to drive a small project to completion.” Game File is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my reporting, please consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Subscribe Going big with this Keighley and Cerny may have started Nova and may be the ones primarily backing it right now, but they’re dreaming of something that goes beyond them. “Mark and I may have helped get it started, but one of our measures of success is that Nova grows into something the entire games industry feels a sense of ownership in,” Keighley said. “Our ambition is to build a lasting endowment supported by people and companies across the industry, and an equally broad community of creators willing to give their time and experience to the next generation.” The industry has a lot of knowledge that it can pass to the next generation, Keighley said: “Nova can hopefully become a way to connect that generosity with talented young creators at the moment when it can make the biggest difference.” Cerny, who told me he believes Nova can mature “over the next 10 or 20 years,” sees an opportunity to give generations of game makers momentum. “The industry has changed immeasurably since I started in games in 1982,” he said. “These graduates have talent, training and tools that outclass what we had back in the day by an astonishing amount. But they face a tough road ahead getting traction in the industry, and many could benefit from our support. We want to be there to give it to them.” “There’s a personal side to this, too,” Keighley said. “I don’t have children, and I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about what I can do for future generations. Games have been my entire career. I’ve been incredibly fortunate, and helping someone else build a life in this industry feels like a meaningful way to give back.” Cerny’s oeuvre dates back to Marble Madness and Sonic the Hedgehog 2. He has stood on stage multiple times to reveal the future of PlayStation hardware. He’s been an executive producer for a string of modern PlayStation classics such as The Last Guardian and Marvel’s Spider-Man. Nevertheless, of Nova, he said, “It’s certainly not like anything I’ve done before.” Nova Foundation applications will be due in December and the first wave of fellows will be announced in March 2027. A full list of participating universities and steps students and recent graduates can take to apply to become a Nova Fellow is forthcoming.
Healthcare Partnership Expands Nursing Capacity by 77.5%
More students are enrolling in nursing programs at Cape Fear Community College (CFCC) and UNCW, thanks to a community partnership funded by The Endowment. Nursing enrollment capacity has increased by 77.5% since 2023, according to the New Hanover Healthcare Career Partnership (HCP), representing a significant step toward addressing healthcare workforce shortages in New Hanover County and southeastern North Carolina.
Endowment invests $5.2 million in New Hanover County mental health, housing programs
More than $5.2 million in new grants from the New Hanover County Endowment will fund a new mental health crisis center, support the homeless, and boost local entrepreneurs.
Louisiana Endowment for the Humanities opens nominations for Bright Lights Awards. Here's the details.
Since 1985, the Bright Lights Awards have celebrated the state's defining cultural leaders, from Norman C. Francis to John Folse.
Backing science’s unsung heroes
Leah Speser recently created a nearly $300,000 endowment at Fred Hutch to support postdoctoral researchers at Fred Hutch. This idea to support the people who “form the next generation of science” was already part of her legacy plans, but with uncertainties in the federal funding landscape, she felt a sense of urgency to act.
$3 million gift benefiting WT band program, endowment for business students
West Texas A&M University announced a $3 million gift will benefit its acclaimed band program and establish an endowment for business students.
Chartbook 464 The"China squeeze" - the politics of development counterfactuals.
There are three types of China shock discourse. Each has a distinct temporal register. China shock 1.0 was a phrase coined by US academics in the 2010s to retrospectively summarize the impact on particular US labour markets, which they identified through painstaking empirical investigation. China shock 2.0 on everyone’s lips in Europe in the mid 2020s is an alarm raised by trans-Atlantic policy thinkers warning of a coming disaster which they project onto Europe’s ailing car industry. The third type of China shock discourse - commonly known as the “China squeeze” launched most recently by Indian economists Shoumitro Chatterjee and Arvind Subramanian in the pages of Foreign Affairs - mobilizes a different, more speculative temporal register: the counterfactual realm of alternate history. The China squeeze argument asks not what has happened, or what is going to happen, but what might have been. Specifically, what options for economic development might have been open to Global South economies like India or the economies of sub-Saharan Africa, had it not been for China’s spectacular industrialization since the late 1990s and the persistent competitiveness of China’s manufacture in low-skilled segments. Chatterjee and Subramanian’s argument is that whilst China has built a powerful position in electrical machinery and other high-skill manufacturing, which is now delivering China Shock 2.0, it also continues to run a trade surplus in low-skill, labour-intensive manufacturing. This surplus is large and has remained largely unchanged in fifteen years. Indeed, in the 2010s, in trade with low-income countries, China’s surplus rapidly increased. On their reading, this squeezes low-income producers in low-skill sectors in which they “should” be able to compete. Source: “China’s Mercantilist Squeeze on Developing Countries” Shoumitro Chatterjee and Arvind Subramanian. Peterson Institute for International Economics 26-7 May 2026 Chatterjee and Subramanian’s wording is telling: (emphasis mine) The canonical trajectory of economic development in the post-World War II period is for countries to transition from agriculture to manufacturing, first in low-skilled manufacturing and then later on to high-skill manufacturing (Herrendorf, Rogerson, and Valentinyi 2013). At the global level, this implies that high-income countries (HICs) that once specialized in low-skilled activities cede manufacturing export space to poorer countries that come along to occupy that space. In 1965, advanced economies accounted for about 60 percent of global value-added exports in four key low-skilled manufacturing sectors, i.e., apparel, leather, textiles, and footwear. Over time this share declined and began to be occupied first by the East Asian tigers and, beginning in the late 1990s, by China. Today China accounts for about 50 percent of the global market. The question is whether China, with its rising prosperity, is continuing to behave like its richer counterparts and ceding export space to poorer followers or to behave unlike them and continuing to occupy space. In terms of the conceptual maneuvers it performs, of the three China shock discourses, the “China squeeze” argument is by far the most ambitious. After all, it bases its critique of China on a counterfactual imagining of the world. Like any counterfactual argument, to construct this alternative reality it must rely on a heuristic model. To make their argument Chatterjee and Subramanian mobilize two key claims. The first reference point is the actual history of rich-country industrialization, what they refer to as the “canonical path”. The idea is that countries transition from agriculture to light industry and low-skilled manufacturing and from there up the value chain. To make this useful as a standard of comparison and a means to construct a normative standard, they adjust sectoral export shares for two factors: 1. the underlying level of economic development of the exporting country, as measured by national income and 2. the degree to which the sector in question is internationalized. The idea being that for a high income country to have a high export share in low-skill sectors is anomalous and even more so if that particular product is highly internationalized and thus suitable for being “conceded” to lower-income competitors. Where should this process end? Here Chatterjee and Subramanian introduce their second benchmark. Their normative idea of a global development path is one in which, in due course, low-skill manufacturing exports are distributed in proportion to a country’s share in the global labour force. They imagine, in other words, a world of proportional, polycentric global development without much national specialization in low-skill manufacturing. A useful benchmark is that, in labor-intensive manufacturing sectors, a country’s share of world exports should be broadly commensurate with its share of the world’s low-skilled labor endowment. … In the Heckscher-Ohlin model, this would be true if value added per worker and export propensities, i.e., fraction of output that is exported, are the same across countries. It is this pleasant liberal vista of orderly global development, progressing towards a general distribution of low-skilled manufacturing against which they judge reality and conclude that the low-income countries are suffering a “China squeeze”. China is not exiting low-skill sectors fast enough Allowing for its gdp level and the degree of globalization, China’s share of low-skill manufacturing exports is far higher than it “should” be. Relative to population, its low-skill share of exports is far too high. That in turn yields the conclusion that huge numbers of jobs - the authors suggest tens of millions - are being hoarded by China. For the four sectors captured in figure 4, this excess in value-added exports is $110 billion in 2022. For all low-skilled sectors overall captured in appendix figure D.1, excess value-added exports amount to $365 billion. The crowding out of LMIC exports by China is therefore substantial. Both these claims have in common that they are strong structuralisms. The first is that development paths ought to resemble each other. The second is that broadly speaking as far as low-skilled manufacturing is concerned, all countries are alike. If the world currently diverges from the distribution of trade implied by these assumptions, if China is not following the advanced economy path and has huge exports, this must be the result of “policy”, which the authors then put in question as illegitimate or unfair. Thus the naturalistic construction of a canonical path leading to a “level” distribution of low-skilled manufacturing reveals itself to be a polemical tool. From the point of view of China shock polemics, this discourse is no doubt welcome. But as an account of economic history, it must surely be regarded as nothing short of bamboozling. Development paths do not follow a regular, natural sequence. As David Fishman put it aptly, “development is not a queue”. They are always and everywhere, through and through political. Development is not so much a process, as a project. Each such project is more or less well adjusted to its context. As Gerschenkron taught uneven and combined development implies differentiation rather than simple imitation on a single parth. It may be true that Europe and the US exited relatively early from low-skill work. But clearly technology has changed. As C&S themselves point out, China no longer enjoys a low wage environment. Do they really believe that such huge differences can be accounted for either by industrial policy, which as they admit does not operate powerfully in low-skill sectors, or by exchange rate manipulation? What is overwhelmingly dominant in explaining the persistence of “low-skill” manufacturing in China are surely the network effects of complex supply chains. Indeed the label of “low-skill” may miss the point. The degree of globalization which Chatterjee and Subramanian decide to conjure away in their model of the development path - to allow for the fact that Europe and American textiles exporters did not enjoy just-in-time logistics in the 1950s - obscures the point that the networks through which Chinese factories supply the world are themselves key parts of the low-skill industrialization project. China isn’t knocking out 1970s style “cheap”. It has redefined the entire product cycle. C&S’s casual reference to “T-shirts” is telling. In today’s “fast fashion”, there is weight on both terms. Fashion and fast. China’s success in delivering on both at unprecedentedly high speed and at unprecedentedly low cost, isn’t a low-skill operation at all. If we see development trajectories not as the serial repetition of the same, but as distinctive, crafted projects that cumulate in complex agglomerations of skill, technology and labor, then this explains why the assumption that low-skilled manufacturing should follow the distribution of population flies in the face of all experience. As countless cases attest, low-wage, low-income developed economies are not by themselves the makings of a competitive production base. As Leon Liao puts it quite fairly: “International trade has never been allocated according to population. A country’s population gives it no natural claim to an equivalent share of global exports." And the remarkable fact is that Subramanian alone and with co-authors has long been making this point, not to pillory China, as is the case of the tendentious _Foreign Affair_s and Peterson pieces, but to highlight the great counterpart to China’s industrial success, namely India’s relative failure. The much-quoted Foreign Affairs piece showed low-skill export shares only for China, not for India. If you put both countries in the picture as Chaterjee and Subramanian have done on other occasions, the picture looks like this. China is far above the line, but India, almost as large in terms of population, is no less anomalous, just in the opposite direction. As far as global populations are concerned, and the imagining of tens of millions of “squeezed” jobs, it is this Sino-Indian pair that account for a huge share of the action. What this graph reveals is not China’s cheating, but India’s “greatest development failure”, at least this is the argument made Arvind Subramanian, this time in co-authorship with Devesh Kapur, in their major book, A Sixth of Humanity. Independent India’s Development Odyssey which appeared with Oxford University Press earlier this year. In this highly critical work on India’s development, China is repeatedly evoked, not to criticize but as a benchmark against which to illuminate what India’s political economy has not delivered i.e. large-scale formal employment for hundreds of millions of citizens. Kapur and Subramanian leave no doubt, if you want to understand why China, not India was the main driver of manufacturing globalization from the 1980s, don’t look to slots opening up in the division of labour thanks to the liberal mindedness of advanced economies, look to the contrasting political economy of the Maoist PRC and India’s post-independence political economy. As Kapur and Subramian note: The great divergence between China and India did not begin in 1978 with the Deng reforms—it was well underway by then. In one of the great ironies of modern history, the conditions created by Maoism turned out to be a great launching pad for industrial globalization. As the comparison of India and China in 1980 makes clear, to imagine manufacturing would be equally distributed when populations are so differently endowed in terms of educational and nutritional is fanciful. Here is the data from Kapur and Subramanian, data which I explored back at the very beginning of Chartbook. As Kapur and Subramanian insist, the striking fact is that even as India’s growth accelerated from the 1980s, structural change has not. Formal employment in India lags woefully behind. Why? As Kapur and Subramanian note, the path-dependent impact of India’s poor early start was devastating. The list of factors they mention is long and weighty: We argue for a new five-fold explanation applicable at different stages of Indian history: in the initial stages, the legacy of two key pre-1980s policies, the neglect of agriculture and the strangling of the domestic private sector, were critical. The failure of broad-based agricultural growth militated against rural industrialization, which would have been devoted to satisfying local needs that would have necessarily been labour intensive. Then, when the boom came after 1980, the thicket of regulation and broader labour protections that were legislated prematurely in a nascent democracy, underpinned by a deep ideological aversion to private capital in general and big capital specifically, became a barrier to attaining the size that would be necessary to compete globally. Similarly, the reforms after 1991, while wide-ranging, did not quite encompass non-tradeable inputs critical to manufacturing, namely, land, logistics infrastructure and power. A combination of low investment (logistics infrastructure), regulation (land) and the continued monopoly supply by state governments (power), combined with residual socialism, kept costs at 75–100 per cent above efficient supply. These factors were compounded on the supply side by the government, which dominated the formal labour market and established exorbitantly high wages at the lower end of the skill spectrum. This made their employment in the labour-intensive sector by the private sector less attractive. Finally, when the services sector and its exports boomed, wages soared even further via a Dutch Disease effect: one successful tradeable sector killed and cannibalized another less-skilled tradable sector, namely, manufacturing. Thus, scarcity-inducing policies of the planning era, precocious democracy and a Gandhian aversion to size; inefficient, monopolistic supply of critical non-tradable inputs; the behemoth of government; and super-successful skill-intensive services successively undermined India’s unskilled labour employment opportunities. The employment failure seems to have been over-determined. … Less quantifiable but no less important are some of the sociological factors that have undermined manufacturing and factory jobs. Take the impact of the success of the IT sector—located in urban areas with better working conditions, such as air-conditioned offices, good schools for children and attractive entertainment options. It became a more attractive place for engineering and management graduates to flock to. … Consider manufacturing and female employment. Indian society makes it difficult for women to work, reflected in India’s unusually low female labour force participation (elaborated in Chapter XIII). Indian society, in particular the routine harassment of women in public spaces, makes it even more difficult for them to travel long distances to take up work.37 Combined with onerous regulations on creating hostels and dormitories for women—which, in turn, prevents multiple shifts of operation—factories need to be located in areas with a large female labour pool. While firms can take apparel plants to female labour or bring them to the plants by building large-scale dormitories, this raises costs. If there was a case for subsidies to encourage labour-intensive manufacturing, housing subsidies to build dormitories for women workers would be a good place to start. All of this meant, that when opportunities did open up, in part thanks to adjustments in China, India was in no position to take advantage. Here is the account of the 2020s from Kapur and Subramanian. It stands in dizzying contrast to the one-sided, “China squeeze” argument delivered in the Peterson and Foreign Affairs pieces: In 2022, for example, India’s share of global exports in clothing (the canonical labour-intensive sector) was 3.1 per cent compared to 32 per cent for China. This is extremely disappointing because China started vacating export space in this sector after the Global Financial Crisis as its wages started rising; it then vacated further space in the aftermath of geopolitical developments that led investors to seek alternative investment locations. Between its peak and today, China lost about 7.5 percentage points of global export share (worth about $43 billion in 2022); over this period, India’s export share remained stagnant at 3 per cent, while that of Vietnam and Bangladesh rose by 3.5 to 4 percentage points. China’s loss did not translate into any gain for India in terms of low-skill exports and employment. Put differently, when the conditions for dynamism and prosperity were established after 1991, and even more tantalizingly when the global export opportunities opened up, it was as if India was a high-wage economy and only skilled labour could benefit from the dynamism. It had converted its physically abundant unskilled workforce into an economically expensive resource, penalizing its use. It is not my mission here to argue for or against Kapur and Subramanian’s interpretation of India’s development trajectory. The point in this context is simply that the “China squeeze” such as it is can only be understood, in relation to the heavy burden of domestic constraints that Kapur and Subramanian so unsparingly enumerate. I am concentrating here on India because it is the great counterpart to China and the unspoken reference point of the “China squeeze” discourse. But the point is more general. Can anyone with a straight face suggest that the main problems afflicting the development of South Africa or Nigeria, the great centers of mass underemployment in sub-saharan Africa, are cheap competition from China driven by Beijing’s industrial policy and an undervalued RMB? Likewise, is the main problem of the American working-class the threat of Chinese competition or the manifest crisis of social reproduction in the United States itself? The point here, as in the discourse around China shock 2.0 in Europe, is to insist that we should not normalize the world and pathologize China, without actually investigating what is going on in America’s industrial wastelands, the German car industry, or India’s lopsided labour market. One-sided pathologization should be understood for what it is, a polemical gesture. Concepts like China shock and China squeeze are, what Reinhart Koselleck, following Carl Schmitt, would have described as “asymmetrische Kampfbegriffe”, or “asymmetrical counter-concepts” or “asymmetrical combat concepts”. If the function of arguments like the “China squeeze” is to alert elites in the rest of the world of the need to rejuvenate and energize their development projects, so be it. But let us see the resulting discourses as the mobilizing interventions that they are. Interestingly, a significant slice of China’s public sphere - the so-called industrial party - have been obsessed for the last twenty years with precisely these questions of counterfactual economic history. Since the mid 2000s, a massive online discourse developed around an alternative history in which Chinese techno-patriots were asked to imagine how they would proceed if they had the possibility of traveling back in time to transport modern technology into the Ming dynasty (1368-1644) thus averting the “great divergence” of the 18th and 19th centuries. It is a fantasy of course, but also a goad. The point was not directed at Westerners. The alternate history is dramatically nationalist, but few n the West had even heard of it until recently. The adherents of the industrial party are not liberal moralists. They don’t project natural ladders of international development and ask why others don’t cede space. They take the Realpolitik of global economic development for granted. Their pointe was directed against fellow Chinese. The rallying cry of the alternative narrative was this: Now that we are beginning to gain steam and push forward on our national development path, now that we are breaking out of the inferior position assigned to us even in the early years following WTO accession, do not lose yourself in humanistic imaginings about better futures. In the spirit of Deng, they called on China to embrace the hard truth of development. Perhaps one might of the Industrial Party as a cultural trend born out of desire for symbolic revenge against those who had inflicted the century of humiliation. In terms of the various temporalities of the “China shock” - retrospective, prospective and counterfactual - one might think of the Industrial Policy discourse as truly speculative, conjuring up the China shock that never was. Or perhaps one might better think of it as imagining a world in which a powerful China was no shock at all, but simply a defining fact of modern history. I love putting out Chartbook. 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