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Great Lakes Sports & Entertainment Network to air Pistons-Wizards game
Detroit Pistons will play the Washington Wizards on Saturday, and there’s a new way to watch.
Two men charged with arson that damaged Kansas City business
The fire caused $15,000 in damage to the business in Kansas City's Northeast area on September 7.
World’s largest economy joins Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Israel in battle for Red Sea influence as it lifts sanctions on Eritrea despite its role in Ethiopia war that killed 600,000
The United States has lifted sanctions on Eritrea imposed over its role in the deadly war in neighbouring Ethiopia, as Washington seeks to “advance US regional interests” in a country strategically positioned along the Red Sea
What Does the Science of Climate Change Really Look Like?
Editor’s Note: This is the second in a three-part series on how the Right should think about environmental and climate policy. Read Chris Barnard on Reclaiming Environmental Policy from the Left. More than a decade ago, the world’s governments negotiated and signed the Paris Climate Agreement, committing to hold global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius. In the following years, climate had immense cultural power. Greta Thunberg emerged. Fortune 500 companies established net-zero plans. The U.S. got the Inflation Reduction Act. Then the pendulum swung back. President Donald Trump returned to the Oval Office, speaking of green energy as a “scam” and carbon footprints as a “hoax” and on all matters of international policy emphasizing bilateral engagement and power over globalism and cooperation. The technology companies that had been at the forefront of net-zero pledges and green leadership discovered the importance of all-of-the-above power to their visions for artificial intelligence and began quietly postponing or removing their targets. On the left side of the political spectrum, rising concerns about inflation and cost pushed climate lower down in the stated priorities of voters and stump speeches of politicians. The moment is ripe for a reset on the politics of climate change and for conservatives especially to chart a course that acknowledges and addresses the real challenges in plausible ways. So what should we think about climate change as we enter a post-peak climate era? If it is neither an apocalypse nor a hoax, what will hold up as a durable view of climate change? And how does it project onto the concerns and priorities of the right-of-center’s emerging coalition? New to Commonplace_? Subscribe below to get the magazine in your inbox._ Subscribe A Solid Foundation As the politics and economics of climate careened over the past ten years, the physics carried on regardless. In 2015, the year the Paris Climate Agreement was adopted, the world emitted 41.2 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide. By 2025, emissions had risen only 2.4%, to 42.2 gigatonnes, because falling emissions from land use offset increasing emissions from fossil fuels. But slow growth in annual emissions is not rapid decline, let alone net-zero, so carbon dioxide kept accumulating in the atmosphere, going from 399 to 426 parts per million. Global temperature kept rising too, from about 1.1 degrees Celsius above the 1850–1900 average in 2015, to 1.4 degrees above it in 2025. None of this should surprise anyone. Even most prominent skeptics, like the authors of the 2025 report commissioned by the Trump administration’s Department of Energy, accept the basic physics. Carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere at industrial volumes accumulates and traps heat that would otherwise escape to space. That heat warms the upper ocean and increases temperatures at the surface. Increased ocean heat and melting of land ice cause sea levels to rise. Changes in the climate become noticeable to us as subtle shifts in temperature and precipitation, seasons arriving early or late, changes in the surrounding ecosystem, and weather extremes. The much more meaningful debate is not about whether these things are happening, but about what it all means for human societies. (While it is a proxy measure of overall risk, no one experiences global surface temperature.) This debate invokes at least three interesting questions: how much today’s warming is showing up in regional climate trends, how much more warming we should anticipate, and how extreme weather events can be understood in the context of climate change. Recent scientific advances give us new insights into each of these, but there is still much to learn. This is the context in which the next generation of conservative leaders will be the first to deal with significant climate change as a fact, not a forecast. It will be with them for their entire careers. Our evolving scientific picture of climate change will come from weather and climate records stretching further into the past, new kinds of observations in the present, better modeling tools for the future, and simply more time to observe the emergence of climate signals and their tangible effects on ecosystems and communities in the United States and around the world. The policy landscape will be shaped by not only the impacts of changes in the climate, but also by the ways in which societies respond and by the emergence of new technologies for both altering the trajectory of emissions and adapting to new climate realities. Global climate records now show the fingerprints of warming in different phenomena around much of the world. The IPCC, in its most recent assessment report, documents warming trends over all land regions, even as natural variability adds substantial variance to local trends. And the highest temperature extremes have become more intense and frequent, almost everywhere, since the 1950s. Scientists are highly confident that these changes are attributable to human influence. But confidence in detecting trends and attributing them to human influence degrades across heavy precipitation events; drought trends are heterogeneous and not attributable to human activity with great confidence. For hurricanes, tornadoes, and other severe storms there is even less confidence in trends or their relationship to climate change. In general, a fair summary of the evidence is that for well-observed phenomena, like surface temperature or heavy rainfall, with a clear relationship to warming, our multidecadal observations are consistent with human influence overcoming natural variability over long time periods and extremes increasing. For regions that are sampled more sparsely, or phenomena with a higher noise-to-signal ratio, we will need to observe them longer to understand the magnitude of the climate signal or improve dynamical understanding using models and observations together. But for Climate For those who can’t wait, we also have new techniques that attempt to understand the role climate change has in influencing particular extreme events. When the climate is changing and disaster strikes, it is natural to ask whether that disaster was somehow “caused” by climate change. For scientists and policymakers acting in good faith, answering that question helps develop a more accurate picture of the problem, how it may be getting worse, and what preparations we should be making to respond to it. It may, at some point, give some weight to how liability is assigned by courts or adaptation funding is distributed by society. But how we ask this question is extremely important. It is easy to get the analysis wrong by discounting the role that meteorology plays. As meteorologist Theodore Shepherd explained in a clear 2016 review of climate attribution methods, “if a weather or climate event is truly extreme in the present climate, then perforce it requires unusual meteorological conditions, which means that climate change is at most a contributing factor.” Share Scientists have two ways to probe climate as a contributing factor, both of which have entered media coverage of extreme weather events. One asks a probabilistic question: How much more likely is a particular event (e.g., a temperature record over a particular area) amid global warming? The answer involves using historical records and computer simulations to estimate the likelihood of such an event in both a changed and a preindustrial climate. The findings are less about the specific event, and more about events of that nature. The other question is: How has the changed climate affected the specific event in question? Here, scientists try to understand what a similar event would have looked like in the preindustrial climate. This is sometimes called the storyline approach, where the story is the specific meteorological details of the event. These methods offer ways to test the intuition of scientists about real weather extremes. In late June and early July of 2021, a persistent high-pressure ridge, or heat dome, set up over the Pacific Northwest and an extraordinary heat wave affected the area from Oregon to British Columbia. For six days, it shattered temperature records across the region and hundreds died from heat-related causes, in an area where such high, and persistently high, temperatures were well outside of experience and many live without air conditioning. Scientists have studied its connection to climate change using multiple approaches. This specific event was created by a rare combination of meteorological factors, a strong high-pressure ridge created the conditions for extreme heat, which occurred on top of higher average temperatures in the region from global warming. Probabilistic analyses showed that climate change increased the likelihood of such an event by at least 8-fold to more than 100-fold. One standout example found that such an event had effectively zero probability of occurring in the preindustrial climate. The enormous range in these assessments reflects how hard it is to estimate probabilities of events at the tail of the historical record. Estimates of the effect on the temperature of the event are more clustered. A recent review paper documents how multiple methodologies have found a positive influence, roughly 1-2 degrees Celsius of an anomaly that exceeded 15 degrees, of climate change on the temperature magnitude of the event. Multiple studies have investigated and found some positive influence of climate change in other extreme events. Attribution studies found climate likely increased the heavy rainfall that accompanied Hurricane Helene in North Carolina and surrounding regions in 2024. The extensive fires that struck Los Angeles in 2025 illustrate how the causal chain can become messy, though. Studies do detect a positive influence of climate on the event’s likelihood, but while climate change likely contributed to underlying aridity, it would not have played a role in the heavy winds or land practices that preceded disaster. These event attribution studies will become more common for extreme, or damaging, weather events. They can be produced quickly, and often are reported before peer review. As the Pacific Northwest heatwave example shows, when multiple methods converge on a positive attribution, the finding should probably carry some weight even if you have to be careful about accepting the results from a single study. I expect that as climate change proceeds and the climate thus departs further from a preindustrial counterfactual, the influence will become more detectable across a variety of extreme events and more easily identified. This will be used to cast blame, but can also be used to inform how communities and society adapt to ongoing change. We May Still Be Surprised One positive development, insofar as less climate change is better, has been that our central estimates for future climate change should probably be revised downward. Mostly, that is because the high-end warmings that scientists regularly analyzed about ten to 20 years ago, driven by high emissions throughout the twenty-first century, now appear to be somewhere between unlikely and impossible. At one time, the upper end of mainstream climate projections extended well into 4 to 6 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of this century, which, models suggest, would have wrought enormous real-world damage. Current energy and policy trends now point toward 2.5 or 3 degrees. Damages and risks are commonly modeled as increasing steeply with more warming, so this is already a better-than-previously-expected outcome for the climate (which is independent of the physical response to emissions). But we should maintain a wide range for plausible outcomes and prepare for the possibility of being surprised. Emissions trajectories are subject to deep uncertainty, the physical climate response is still developing, and whatever change occurs in the climate will then be mediated through unpredictable economic, social, and political institutions. Over the past decade, the pace of warming surprised some keen observers and appeared to accelerate, though not yet outside the range of expectation provided by climate models. The reasons for that apparent acceleration are being actively studied (as was the apparent pause in warming from 1998 to 2012), but no single driver has emerged. Some blame it on the El Niño, variability which would have no bearing on climate. Some think it is a result of factories in East Asia and global shipping fleets cutting aerosol emissions, which in the strongest version of the argument would indicate higher climate sensitivity to carbon-dioxide emissions. Others are more measured, not yet ready to draw solid conclusions as to whether climate projections require revision. We will have to see. Long-Term Thinking Climate change asks us to think over long time scales. But the pace of human-driven warming is compressing a large global change into a century. Changing weather patterns and extreme events are already causing adjustment costs and damages and will do more. Adaptation will help, but it is not free. For some communities, these costs will erode livelihoods and well-being, and may force migration. Are we prepared for large-scale managed retreats in the United States? Thankfully, American wealth, geographical diversity, and moderate climates may leave us better prepared than many around the world. But wealthy countries can still suffer serious disruption from narrowly concentrated costs, even if they appear entirely manageable in aggregate. Readers of Commonplace are familiar with the challenges of rapidly adapting to economic forces. The displacement that came from the China Shock is barely perceptible in aggregate GDP and employment data, but it affected millions of people and those people were far less mobile than economic models tended to assume. Deindustrialization rippled through the nation with enormous effects for not only our economic vitality, but also our national security. The forces surrounding climate change may not be so different; the world gets richer and must accept some diffuse costs. Those may be modest overall, but cause all manner of unpredictable effects with which policymakers must cope. In the case of the China Shock, our faith in a growing pie served us poorly. We’ll need to do better on climate. Leave a comment
Independent Kansas health systems launch shared services organization
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Med Center Health officially opens ‘High Street Tower’ for Obstetrics and OB services
Med Center Health officially opened its state-of-the-art High Street Tower for Obstetrics and OB services
Weekly Portland women’s sports wrap up (8/21)
Weekly Portland women’s sports wrap up (8/21) presented by Rebound Rebound Orthopedics and Neurosurgery and Rivermark Community Credit Union.
Louisianians more interested in politics, less polarized than most Americans, survey finds
A new survey on civic life in Louisiana has found that while Louisianians are more interested in politics than the rest of the country, they are less politically polarized.
No, Xbox isn't quitting Steam — but it IS doubling down on PC gaming. Here's how.
Xbox's PC offering has improved immeasurably over the last few years, and while it isn't indicative of a shift away from Steam, it does show how seriously Microsoft is taking PC gaming.
Lori Petty says Patrick Swayze would do ‘ballet in the air’ while skydiving during ‘Point Break’ shoot
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5 breakout candidates for the Patriots in 2026
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Science behind ‘corn sweat’ and how it worsens the current heat wave
Experts say corn sweat is making an already brutal heat stretch feel even more humid across South Dakota.
Jennifer Garner praises ex-husband Ben Affleck as ‘incredible co-parent’: ‘He’s a great partner in that way’
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Prosecutions, Epstein and the $1.8B fund: What to watch at Todd Blanche's confirmation hearing
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Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's wedding forced celebrities to post like mere mortals
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Tennessee Sports Writers Association Releases All-State Tennis Teams
The Tennessee Sports Writers Association releases its 2026 All-State tennis teams.
Seven gastrointestinal illness cases linked to Seattle sushi restaurant, health officials say
Seven people reported getting sick after eating at the Sushi%AYCE/All You Can Eat restaurant in Seattle’s Chinatown International District.
Legislation overhauling college sports faces a major test in the Senate
A bipartisan bill top lawmakers and athletic leaders have described as the best chance to stabilize college sports is facing a key test in the Senate.
Spider-Man faces off against the Hulk in 'Brand New Day' trailer: 'Didn't know you could get that big'
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Asda taps Ocado for automation in UK stores starting 2027
Online grocery technology firm Ocado Group said on Friday it has won a partnership with British supermarket group Asda to roll out its automation platform across Asda's stores and dark stores starting in 2027.
Critical Gogs RCE Vulnerability Lets Any Authenticated User Execute Arbitrary Code
Gogs 9.4 CVSS flaw exploits git rebase injection on 1,141 exposed instances, enabling remote code execution.
Business leaders launch new marketing campaign
If Boston has a 'marketing problem,' civic leaders hope this new marketing campaign will help.
High School Sports: May 11th
Watch highlights from Monday's high school baseball and soccer.
Cruise ship hit by hantavirus outbreak arrives in Tenerife
The cruise ship hit by a deadly hantavirus outbreak arrived early on Sunday near the Port of Granadilla in Tenerife, Reuters footage showed, where it will anchor for the evacuation of the passengers and some of the crew.
Opinion | How Barney Frank helped reinvent Boston
He and other ambitious, outsider-minded aides steered the city away from parochial politics and toward lasting change.
NYU Langone Health plans to build new $1B teaching hospital, research center in Melville
The hospital would provide medical services to the Route 110 corridor, Suffolk County Executive Ed Romaine said.
Missing teen with health problems last seen in Fair Play, deputies say
Anyone with information is asked to call 911 or leave a news tip with Crimestoppers.
LPD investigating overnight burglary of adult entertainment store
Lincoln police are investigating a burglary at an adult entertainment store early Wednesday morning
Chicago’s lead evaporates in frustrating 4-2 defeat
The Orioles swoop in late to steal series from the Sox
Mass. business confidence dips back into pessimism
Surging energy prices and the war in Iran are dragging down employers’ outlooks.
The science behind Easter: Why the date changes every year
Easter is always celebrated on the first Sunday after the first full moon following the spring equinox.
NCAA, NIT, WBIT tournaments lead to uptick in business for Wichita bars
Fans of KU, K-State and WSU flocked to sports bars to cheer on their favorite teams.
National Cybersecurity Alliance
The National Cybersecurity Alliance is a non-profit organization on a mission to create a more secure, interconnected world. Browse our library of online safety articles and resources and connect with industry experts and educators.
Snap’s Direct Revenue Business Reaches $1B Annualized Revenue Run Rate as Subscription Community Surpasses 25 Million Snapchatters
Snap’s growing portfolio of subscription products—including Snapchat+, Lens+, Snapchat Premium, and Memories Storage Plans—is reshaping how the company monetizes engagement.
VAR audios released from Barcelona’s defeat to Real Sociedad
The officials got through a lot of work.
Signal’s founder is taking on ChatGPT — here’s why the ‘truly private AI’ can’t leak your chats
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Maryland men’s basketball fizzles out against USC, 88-71
The Terps lost the second half 46-30.
D-FW business datebook for the week of Dec. 14
The Dallas-Fort Worth business datebook with holiday shopping pop-ups, metro job numbers and earnings.
This retro gaming console has something for everyone, and now it’s just $84
Game night just got a major upgrade.