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Why politicians should pay more attention to the polls (reprise)
Welcome to the 231st edition of The Week in Polls (TWIP), a polling newsletter that always welcomes new readers. So please don’t keep TWIP a secret; share it with your friends and colleagues: Share The Week in Polls With all the stories swirling around Reform, JL Partners and political polling, I am finally tearing myself away from talking about the regulation of polling this week - and instead re-running a previous piece reminding us why the solution to problems with polls isn’t simply to ban or ignore them. Rather, we need them to play a vital role in making our politics - and politicians - better. This is followed by summaries of the latest national voting intention polls, seat projections from MRPs and the most recent party leader ratings. Subscribers who pay for the full edition can also read ten insights from the latest polls and analyses, including: A trio of organisations and a pair of professors have been casting their eyes over the Liberal Democrats ahead of the party’s autumn conference; What impact did the summer heatwave have on views on climate change? and Which wins out between chocolate and cheese? If you are not yet a paid subscriber, you can read all ten by starting a free trial now: Get FREE 7-day trial For more polling news as it comes in ahead of next week’s edition, you can also follow The Week in Polls on Bluesky. Picking up on my doubt last week about whether or not 35% of British train travellers have tried to order a takeaway for delivery to a railway station or carriage, thank you to reader Iain, who has been in touch to say he has done just that… in India. Another quick pair of updates, this time on the controversies around Reform and polling. Politico has a further scoop - “Farage aide caught in donor sting attended Egypt retreat with JL Partners” - and Ian Dunt has written about the problems with polling too: “Seeing the response of many polling experts in the last few weeks suggests that they are nervous about what is happening and keen to mitigate against it. Seeing the response of journalists, which has been basically non-existent, suggests the precise opposite.” My usual reminder as well: please do hit reply if you’ve spotted a poll, focus group or new piece of poll-based research that you think should be in contention for coverage in a future edition. Thank you! And with that, on with the show. How politicians get public opinion wrong I have written before about the benefits that come from widespread availability of high-quality political polling. We need more polls and more good coverage of polls. However, what I’ve not dug into before is the research into how accurately politicians estimate public opinion on issues. Thankfully we have academic research to tell us. First, the bad news: We present results from a study of 866 politicians in four countries.1 Politicians were asked to estimate the percentage of public support for various policy proposals. Comparing more than 10,000 estimations with actual levels of public support, we conclude that politicians are quite inaccurate estimators of people’s preferences. They make large errors and even regularly misperceive what a majority of the voters wants. Politicians are hardly better at estimating public preferences than ordinary citizens. Walgrave, S., Jansen, A., Sevenans, J., Soontjens, K., Pilet, J.B., Brack, N., Varone, F., Helfer, L., Vliegenthart, R., van der Meer, T., Breunig, C., Bailer, S., Sheffer, L. & Loewen, P.J. (2023a), “Inaccurate Politicians: Elected Representatives’ Estimations of Public Opinion in Four Countries”, The Journal of Politics, 85(1): 209-222. The bad news is not quite as bad as that makes it sound because, when asked whether the majority of public opinion was for or against various policies, politicians picked the wrong option ‘only’ 29% of the time. However, this included getting it wrong even when public opinion is far from evenly split on an issue: They do not only get it wrong when the public is divided and hard to read (e.g., when there is a 51%:49% distribution). Seventy percent of the misplacements occur for policies with a relatively clear distribution of at least 60% (dis)agreeing citizens. Moreover, the public scored only slightly worse than politicians, picking the wrong option 2.7 out of 8 times on average, compared with 2.3 times for politicians. Turning to the other measure of accuracy (not which side is in the lead but what the percentage support is for each side), politicians on average were 18 percentage points out in their guesses. Again, this was only slightly better than the public, whose error came in at 21 percentage points.2 Further research, using the same mix of countries, gives a little more comfort about how (in)accurate perceptions are: We show that politicians have a better understanding of public opinion when they think the issue matters to voters. Further, when an issue is personally important to politicians they more accurately estimate their party supporters’ opinions. The results confirm that politicians hold more accurate perceptions of voters’ preferences when they think it is important to do so but not necessarily when the issues actually are important to voters. Butler, C., Walgrave, S., Soontjens, K. & Loewen, P.J. (2024), “Politicians are better at estimating public opinion when they think it is more salient”, Party Politics: 1–13. Even so, it’s not a good picture. The remedy for this? Politicians should spend more time reading the polls. So forward this newsletter to someone you know… Share For a more general argument against banning polls, see my 2024 piece. Is “Let Bartlet Be Bartlet” good advice or not? The latest episode of my Political Fictions podcast heads across the Atlantic for a dip into one of the political TV classics: Mark and Cory talk about a giant of American political drama for the first time this week, as they tackle The West Wing. They talk about Let Bartlet Be Bartlet, the nineteenth episode of series one. In it, Mark wonders if The West Wing is actually the epitome of the “Boris Johnson school of politics”, Cory outmanoeuvres Mark into confirming we will record a Christmas Special about Love, Actually and they debate whether the central message of this episode has been misunderstood. Cory’s email newsletter is Paperback Rioter and Mark has a family of email newsletters. Subscribe to our newsletter for some additional bonus content and to get alerted whenever a new episode comes out. Our theme tune is “Monkeys Spinning Monkeys” by Kevin MacLeod/incompetech.com and licensed under the Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License. You can also listen to our episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, the web or YouTube. Elsewhere from me… [ A Lord's Eye View How to fix the problem of money in our politics Welcome to my latest update on work in the House of Lords. This time I am taking a look at how our political system is regulated, and the protections we need to keep democracy safe from becoming simply a contest to see who has the biggest bank account… Read more 5 days ago · 3 likes · 2 comments · Mark Pack ](https://lordseyeview.substack.com/p/how-to-fix-the-problem-of-money-in?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web&embedding_publication_id=1269283) If you spot a factual error… Borrowing an idea from Stuart Ritchie and others, if you spot a factual error in an edition of this newsletter, I will give you a free 12-month subscription to the paid-for version (or an extra 12 months on your existing one). Factual errors qualify, but grammatical errors or disagreements over interpretation do not, and my decision is final. Messages about both of those are always welcome, though. Voting intention and leadership ratings Here are the latest voting intention polls from different pollsters. It is all pretty static at the moment, with a small and consistent Labour lead in nearly all the polls. The table is also online here, along with explanations about what is included. It is updated regularly throughout the week as new polls are released. Next are the seat projections from MRPs, also sorted by fieldwork dates, listing those which are based on dedicated fieldwork (rather than models based on averages of other polls). Because such MRPs are published infrequently, some of the entries below are quite old. Finally, here is a summary of leadership ratings, with a graph from PollCheck: Detailed numbers from the latest polls are online here, and both that and the graph are updated regularly throughout the week as new data comes out. For historical figures on both voting intention and leader approval stretching back to the 1930s, including Parliamentary by-election polls, see PollBase. Catch up on the previous two editions [ ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/a-crisis-point-for-political-polling) [ A crisis point for political polling Sep 13 ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/a-crisis-point-for-political-polling) [ Read full story ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/a-crisis-point-for-political-polling) [ ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/extra-questions-about-the-polls-in) [ Extra questions about the polls in Reform’s funding scandal Sep 6 ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/extra-questions-about-the-polls-in) [ Read full story ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/extra-questions-about-the-polls-in) My privacy policy and other legal information are available here. Links to purchase books or other items are usually affiliate links which pay a commission for each sale. Quotes from social media messages are occasionally lightly edited for punctuation and clarity. If you are subscribed to other email lists of mine, please note that unsubscribing from this one will not automatically remove you from the others. If you wish to be removed from all my lists, simply reply to this email to let me know. A quintet of Lib Dem polling analyses, and 9 other polling insights you shouldn’t miss The following ten findings from the most recent polls and analyses are only for subscribers who pay for the full edition, but you can sign up for a free trial to read them straight away. Ahead of the start of Liberal Democrat conference, we have a trio of organisations and a pair of professors with pieces out about Ed Davey’s party:
Bailey hopes to keep Choate Mental Health Center open
Gov. Pritzker says Illinois should move away from state-owned developmental centers.
Science Behind the Forecast: Wine grapes demand temperatures that are just right
Every week WAVE 3 meteorologist Tawana Andrew breaks down what we know and what we don't about the climate and weather here in Louisville.
Local moving business owner charged with grand theft, accused of taking thousands in payment and not showing up
IDAHO FALLS — A Bonneville County business owner is accused of taking payment for a job but failing to provide services. Golden Barrett, 44, faces one grand theft charge and, if convicted, could receive up to 14 years in prison. The court set his bail at $20,000. A plea agreement was signed and filed on […]
Glendale says Salazar ‘manufactured a dispute’ to bail on entertainment district
“The city’s accusation is false, unsupported, and directly contradicted by the public record,” a lawyer for Central Street Capital said.
Should you be worried about Jets rookie EDGE David Bailey?
Should you be worried about New York Jets rookie EDGE David Bailey after his quiet Week 4 performance?
What to know about the race for Illinois governor
Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, Republican Darren Bailey and independent candidate Collin Corbett are on the ballot in the race for governor in the Nov. 3 general election.
Senators Markey, Merkley Reintroduce Legislation to Protect Healthcare for Americans Who Cannot Afford Bail
Bill Text (PDF) Washington, D.C. – Senator Edward J. Markey (D-Mass.), a member of the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) Committee, and Senator Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) today reintroduced the Equity in Pretrial Health Coverage Act, legislation that would protect the continuity of federal health benefits under Medicaid, Medicare, Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), and Veterans Affairs for Americans who […]
Jazz Continue Strong Preseason with Win Over Spurs
Rookie Darryn Peterson shined and Ace Bailey’s defensive versatility flashed as Utah’s dominant third-quarter surge dismantled San Antonio, signaling a dangerous new depth in the Western Conference.
Game 161: Rangers at Twins
First Pitch: 3:10 pm CDTTV: Twins.TVRadio: TIBN / WCCO 830 / The Wolf 102.9 FM / Audacy Last night, you got Joe Ryan and Jacob deGrom. This afternoon, you get Bailey Ober and Nathan Eovaldi. After another full season of Saturday previews, all I can tell you is that after last night’s veteran matchup resulted […]
6 things we learned from the Rams’ 53-man roster
Rams 53-man roster instant reaction: LA wins Tutu Atwell trade, Wesley Bailey makes it, and more
Tamworth sign duo Dyson and Bailey
National League side Tamworth sign midfielder Oliver Dyson and left-back Joshua Bailey.
Illinois governor’s race shifts to Texas
Both Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker and Republican nominee Darren Bailey traveled to Dallas to court supporters in and around the Republican National Convention.
Jets news: New York releases ex-Patriots, Browns quarterback
The New York Jets released quarterback Bailey Zappe on Saturday, per Rich Cimini of ESPN. Zappe was hoping to earn a backup QB role , but now he will need to look for a new opportunity. With Geno Smith leading the way and Cade Klubnik also on the roster, the Jets will move forward without Zappe. Zappe, 27, made his NFL debut during the 2022 season […] The post Jets news: New York releases ex-Patriots, Browns quarterback appeared first on ClutchPoints.
A Jersey Blues Testimonial: Ryan Bailey’s Journey From Record Breaker To Business Owner
A Jersey Blues Testimonial: Ryan Bailey’s Journey From Record Breaker To Business Owner by Trish Taylor Ryan Bailey made the most of his lone season on the field for Brookdale Community College men's soccer in
Who Are the Best Fantasy Snags of the AFC East?
Arguably the most notorious division of the AFC, the East, continues to shine. With the success of the Patriots and Bills, what’s left for the Dolphins and Jets? Perhaps Malik Willis is the missing link, or David Bailey changes New York’s fate. Regardless of speculation, here are the most impactful players of the AFC East […] The post Who Are the Best Fantasy Snags of the AFC East? appeared first on The Lead.
London’s “Sunday in the Park With George” revival canceled after Ariana Grande and Jonathan Bailey departures
The musical’s production team confirmed the news on Sept. 14.
Let's Do Lunch!: Episode 12: Dr. Regan Bailey from ICON Health talks nutrition, makes healthy snack
Tune in to today's episode of Let's Do Lunch!, featuring Dr. Regan Bailey from ICON Health! She discussed food as medicine and whipped up a healthy snack!
Lions Add 8-Time Pro Bowler in Bold Trade Prediction
The Detroit Lions could trade for Arizona Cardinals star safety Budda Baker, according to Jarrett Bailey of SB Nation. Bailey notes that if the Lions get off to a hot start to the season and the Cardinals start slow, the two sides could agree to terms on a deal. “After dismantling the Cardinals, the Lions […] The post Lions Add 8-Time Pro Bowler in Bold Trade Prediction appeared first on HEAVY.
Orioles 5, Twins 2: O’s power past Twins
Bailey Ober gave up three homers and the offense went 1-11 with runners in scoring position as the Twins lost game two of the series.
MTV VMAs 2026 Red Carpet: Orville Peck, Chloe Bailey, JoJo & More
From YouTube to the red carpet, MTV is celebrating another year of music video greatness. On Sunday, the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards got underway at the Peacock Theater in Los Angeles, where Snoop Dog...
Tatiana Bailey: Businesses are buckling under higher costs
We recently got two important inflation reports, and together they raise a concern that isn't getting enough attention.
Hockessin business owner out on bail after vehicular homicide charges
Kevin Keating has been charged with homicide by vehicle while driving under the influence, homicide by vehicle, and causing a deadly accident, all felony offenses.
Is Leon Bailey Playing Today for Volos vs. Olympiacos?
Olympiacos' new signing Leon Bailey faces a delayed debut as manager José Luis Mendilibar prioritises fitness over haste, omitting the former Aston Villa star from the trip to Volos.
Philippines vice president posts bail after arrest order for alleged threats against president
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Vice President Sara Duterte were running mates in the 2022 elections, but their relationship has broken down amid political disputes.
Former Titans QB Will Levis Lands With New NFL Team
After losing the backup battle in Tennessee, the former second-round pick heads to the Big Apple to replace Bailey Zappe and fight for a future roster spot.
Bailey campaign embraces artificial intelligence in new era of politics
Artificial intelligence-generated images and videos are ushering in a new era for political campaigns and Republican Darren Bailey is leading its introduction in Illinois during his second run for governor.
Business owner reacts to part of Bailey Street parking structure closing
Mid-Michigan's source for breaking news, weather and sports
Mental Health Monday: September is National Recovery Month
Sherry Bailey, with Valley Health, joined Holly Baratta to tell us about September being National Recovery Month.
UW’s sports and academics both had deficits. Only 1 got a bailout
The UW is propping up Athletics with loans as costs go up, but has put its main teaching arm, the College of Arts & Sciences, through rounds of cuts.
Global Credit Union Hires Northrim Exec
Bill Bailey, a senior vice president at Northrim Bank, has joined Global Credit Union as Senior Vice President, Business Banking.
Camp Storylines: Ace Bailey Feeling 100 Percent
After overcoming summer back spasms and adding twelve pounds of muscle, the All-Rookie standout prepares to battle for minutes in Utah’s crowded, high-upside wing rotation.
Detroit family of man who was shot by bailiff during mental health crisis files $150M lawsuit
The story of an eviction, a mental health crisis and a man shot and killed has become a federal lawsuit alleging officials were to blame for what had happened.
Ariana Grande to take a break from the public eye
Grande had been due to star alongside her "Wicked" co-star Jonathan Bailey in a production of Stephen Sondheim's "Sunday in the Park with George" in London next year
Gossip: Hull close to signing Bailey and Targett
Hull City are in talks with Aston Villa over a deal for 28-year-old Jamaica winger Leon Bailey. Athletic - subscription required) The Tigers are closing in on the signing of 30-year-old former Newcastle left-back Matt Targett, who is a free agent after leaving the club this summer. (Mail)
Who are the Top 5 cornerbacks in Denver Broncos history?
Champ Bailey is the GOAT. Is Pat Surtain close to catching up and maybe surpassing him? He is certainly already in most of our top five lists at cornerback.
Knicks need more creators, not more Jalen Brunson bailouts
Jalen Brunson missed 13 of his 19 shots Tuesday. The Knicks cannot make every bad shooting night a request for […]
Bailey campaign embraces artificial intelligence in new era of politics
Article Summary Republican Darren Bailey’s campaign for governor is embracing images made with artificial intelligence in social media posts. The
Commentary: Andrew Bailey is back in Missouri and talking like a candidate
Andrew Bailey is back in Missouri after leaving the FBI, railing against Jefferson City insiders who helped build his political career.
Ariana Grande withdraws from London musical and will take a break from the public eye
Ariana Grande has pulled out of an upcoming stage musical in London. Grande was set to star alongside Jonathan Bailey in “Sunday in the Park With George” at the Barbican
ECU Health Pediatric Asthma Program warns fall can cause flare-ups: Q&A with Bailey Hattem Edwards
Bailey Hattem Edwards, respiratory care manager and program lead for ECU Health’s Pediatric Asthma Program, sat down for a Q&A.
Ariana Grande to take a break from the public eye
Grande had been due to star alongside her "Wicked" co-star Jonathan Bailey in a production of Stephen Sondheim's "Sunday in the Park with George" in London next year
Last Of Us Game Stars Laura Bailey And Ian Alexander Cast In New HBO Roles For Season 3
Laura Bailey and Ian Alexander, who voiced Abby and Lev in the games, join John Goodman in HBO's Last of Us season 3, in new roles.
Former Chiefs lineman Allen Bailey dies at 37
Allen Bailey registered 22 sacks over his 10-year NFL career.
Trump calls likely DC mayor Janeese Lewis George a 'communist' and vows to block her agenda
D.C. mayoral frontrunner Janeese Lewis George faces clash with President Trump over ICE enforcement, policing, cashless bail and sanctuary city policies.
Beyoncé and the 'Parkwood Influence' on Chloe, Halle Bailey
Beyoncé has helped shape the careers of her Parkwood-signed artists Chloe and Halle Bailey. An ethnomusicologist breaks down her unique approach.
Beyoncé and the 'Parkwood Influence' on Chloe, Halle Bailey
Beyoncé has helped shape the careers of her Parkwood-signed artists Chloe and Halle Bailey. An ethnomusicologist breaks down her unique approach.
Sacoa powers cashless payments at new Saudi entertainment venue
Sacoa Cashless System has supplied the technology infrastructure for BOLTS, a new social entertainment venue in Jubail, Saudi Arabia, according to a press release. The installation includes 38 Spark RFID readers, three point-of-sale stations with readers, RFID cards, customer relationship management and online sales modules, and the Sacoa Mobile App. The integrated platform enables guests to access attractions and make cashless transactions while providing the venue with tools to manage payments and track customer activity.
Ill. gubernatorial candidate Darren Bailey addresses cuts to Choate Mental Health & Developmental Center
Illinois Republican gubernatorial candidate Darren Bailey made a stop in Anna on Monday, September 28.
Christal Jordan on the latest in entertainment headlines
A new Jackson's brothers documentary is in the works, and Selma Blair is free on bail after a reported assault. Christal chats with Joanne about these stories and more.
Illinois governor’s race shifts to Texas
Both Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker and Republican nominee Darren Bailey traveled to Dallas to court supporters in and around the Republican National Convention.
Country singer Bailey Zimmerman apologizes for canceled concert, charges dropped
Charges against Bailey Zimmerman have been dropped after prosecutors initially accused the country music star of causing $16,000 worth of damage to a New Mexico hotel room and canceling a
Tacoma police search for bail bond business bombing suspect
The front door of Bad Boys Bail Bonds was shattered by the blast.
Western N.Y. GOP lawmakers point to bail reform amid rise in violence
Lawmakers and candidates are speaking out after a Fourth of July weekend in which 11 people were shot in six separate shootings in Buffalo.
After heading home to Missouri, Andrew Bailey isn’t ruling out another run for office
The former Missouri attorney general finished a roughly yearlong stint as co-deputy director of the FBI.
Ace Bailey’s Versatility Starting to Shine for Jazz
Ace Bailey showed Tuesday that his impact for the Jazz can extend well beyond scoring as he enters his second NBA season.
Gallery | Jets First Round Rookies Visit Atlantic Health System's Goryeb Children's Hospital
Jets first round picks David Bailey, Omar Cooper Jr. and Kenyon Sadiq visited children at the Atlantic Health System's Goryeb Children's Hospital.
4 Democrats believe they have what it takes to flip CD 2 from red to blue
Yen Bailey, Brice Barnes, Amanda Marie Green and Nic Zateslo face off in a Democratic Primary in the district.
Andrew Bailey, FBI deputy director, says he will leave after a year on job
He said he will return to Missouri to spend time with his family
Former Charlotte Hornets player Amari Bailey has …
Former Charlotte Hornets player Amari Bailey has …
Global trade takes to North Texas in this week's business datebook
The Taiwan External Trade Development Council brings back Taiwan Expo USA for the third year to the Kay Bailey Hutchison Convention Center Dallas.
After FBI departure, Andrew Bailey says his focus is not on 2028
Andrew Bailey walked out of the J. Edgar Hoover Building in Washington, D.C. Friday and was back in Missouri watching his son play football Saturday, ending a roughly 13-month stint as co-deputy director of the FBI.
Gene therapy & health equity in Sickle Cell Awareness Month
Dr. Lakiea Bailey, Executive Director of the Atlanta-headquartered Sickle Cell Community Consortium, joined us for National Sickle Cell Awareness Month to discuss breakthrough medical developments and healthcare disparities affecting sickle cell patients nationwide.
Baileyton Celebration featured food, entertainment and fun
Some relatively light rain Saturday afternoon did not stop many from enjoying the Baileyton Celebration held Saturday and Sunday.
Two Democrats bail out Speaker Mike Johnson after he faces internal revolt
Speaker Mike Johnson nearly lost control of the House floor — again — because of a group of disgruntled conservatives.
Patrick Radden Keefe's 'London Falling' is a finalist for the nonfiction Baillie Gifford prize
Patrick Radden Keefe's “London Falling” is among six finalists for Britain's leading nonfiction book prize | KCBS All News 106.9FM and 740AM
‘The Cheetah Girls: Next Gen’ gets Disney+ green light, Raven-Symoné and Adrienne Bailon reprising their roles
The Cheetah Girls will be back to usher the next generation: Disney Channel has greenlit a fourth ‘Cheetah Girls’ movie, with Raven-Symoné and Adrienne Bailon reprising their roles.
Florida could be without top receiver against Missouri
Vernell Brown III is doubtful, Bailey Stockton is probable, and Missouri will be without several players on Saturday against Florida.
THE GUARDIANS ARE YOUR AL CENTRAL CHAMPIONS!!!!!!!!
WHAT A GAME!!! WHAT A SEASON!!! The offense has completely bailed out the pitching staff the last couple weeks, and tonight was no different. We got contributions from just about everyone. Multi HR games from both Patrick Bailey and Brayan Rocchio is just a hilariously beautiful way to finish the regular season. We also saw […]
Eide Bailly to expand with Washington accounting firm
Accounting and advisory firm Eide Bailly announced that Bellevue, Wash.-based Loveridge Hunt & Co. PLLC will join the firm, effective Oct. 19. Loveridge Hunt provides tax, accounting, audit and consulting services nationwide, specializing in the affordable housing industry. The move will give Loveridge Hunt clients access to Eide Bailly’s expanded tax, advisory and technology services.…
FBI Co-Deputy Director Andrew Bailey resigns after year in role
Andrew Bailey cited family reasons for his FBI resignation, expressing confidence that Kash Patel will continue reform efforts and restore public trust.
Sony will cease production of discs for new PlayStation games in 2028
New games sold for PlayStation consoles will only be available digitally and won’t be sold on discs effective January 2028, Sony has announced. The move applies to all PlayStation games released from that point on, including those made by Sony and those released by third parties. The PlayStation group calls the change “a natural direction for Sony Interactive Entertainment to adapt to consumer trends as the general preference for digital media significantly outpaces physical discs,” according to a PlayStation blog post reviewed by Game File in advance of its publication. As movies, TV and music have shifted from physical media to an age of downloads and streaming, Sony’s move could speed the demise of physical media in a gaming. The industry has offered consumers games via cartridges, cassettes, floppy discs, CDs, DVDs and Blu-Rays across a 50-year stretch. Sony has been reporting to investors in recent years that PlayStation games have been increasingly purchased as downloads, not as discs. The most recent figures show nearly four in five purchases of full games for PlayStation 4 and PlayStation 5 were purchased digitally in the past year. Stats like that may cause today’s news to carry an air of the inevitable. But Sony’s declaration for 2028 is still likely to produce a shock, as the biggest gaming platform on the planet that uses game discs leaves them behind. Discs going away, but the fate of game boxes is unknown Sony is committing to still selling games in physical retailers even after they drop discs in 2028. Just how those games will be sold—in boxes with codes inside, as cards marked with digital redemption codes—is unclear. Digital games will also continue to be sold in the online PlayStation Store. New games released for PlayStation consoles prior to January 2028 will be unaffected by the policy change, Sony says. That means the PS5 games of 2027, be they a new Madden, a new God of War, a new Call of Duty, a new Sly Cooper (one can dream?), would still potentially be offered on disc. PlayStation 6 implications Sony’s timeline for a transition to a no-disc era will also spin up more speculation about the timing and configuration of Sony’s next-generation console, the probable PlayStation 6. “This pretty much guarantees that PS6 won’t arrive until 2028 at the earliest,” Piers Harding-Rolls, senior games research analyst at Ampere Analysis tells Game File. Harding-Rolls also concludes from today’s news that “the base version of a PS6 will not include a physical media drive,” as Sony looks to keep costs down on the device. Sony itself is saying nothing about the PS6 today: not its timing, nor how it might or might not support internal or external disc drives in order to run disc-based PS4 and PS5 games, should the console be backwards compatible. The many signs this was coming Industry support for games being released on physical media has been waning. As has consumer interest in them. PC games effectively went all-digital years ago, thanks to the popularity of playing games through Steam and other digital storefronts. The Covid-19 pandemic and the lockdowns that kept much of the global population home helped shift shopping patterns toward downloads. Sony’s own data shows PlayStation game downloads being an uncommon consumer choice a decade ago and now becoming the norm. On consoles, physical media has been in such decline that Sony and Microsoft both launched their current gen Xbox Series and PS5 consoles in 2020 with cheaper versions that lacked disc drives. In early 2024, Phil Spencer, then head of Xbox, told me that ““[w]e ship games physically and digitally, and we’re really just following what the customers are doing.” He added that the game industry had become an outlier in still supporting disc-based entertainment, even as movies and TV have bailed on discs in favor of downloads and steaming: “Gaming consoles themselves have kind of become the last consumer electronic device that has a drive. And this is a real issue, just in terms of the number of manufacturers that are actually building drives and the cost associated with those. And when you think about cogs that we’re going to go put in a console—and as you have fewer suppliers and fewer buyers—the cost of the drive does have an impact.” Last year, the Nintendo’s Switch 2, which uses cartridges rather than discs, introduced the concept of game-key cards, which are physical media that contain no game, just a prompt for a download. Even disc-based games aren’t what they once were, now frequently containing just stubs of games rather than the whole thing. The website Does It Play has tested over 3000 games and found that, for example, that the disc version of this year’s hit 007: First Light, only contained the game’s first mission, with the rest needing to be downloaded. Beyond all that, last week brought the news that Grand Theft Auto VI, likely the biggest game launch this decade, will debut for PS5 and Xbox Series without a disc-based version. Today’s big news comes to you for free. Game File is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and ensure more of my work is possible, please consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Subscribe Discs helped define PlayStation However the trends in entertainment may be going, it is still remarkable to see PlayStation ditch discs given their importance in PlayStation history: In the late 1990s, the first PlayStation’s support for games on relatively cheap CD-ROMs instead of traditional game cartridges allowed the upstart console to outmaneuver cartridge-based systems from Nintendo and Sega, as it drove down game prices down in the process. (The cheaper disc format even prompted Final Fantasy VII maker Square to taunt Nintendo in a magazine ad, saying that if the game was “available on cartridge, it’d retail for around $1200.”) PlayStation devices often doubled as machines for watching movies and TV on the latest disc-based formats. In the late 2000s, for example, Sony’s pricy PS3 gained traction as a go-to device for playing then-novel Blu-Ray discs. In 2013, Sony effectively roasted the digital game-sharing restrictions proposed by rival Microsoft for its upcoming Xbox One console by showing how games could be shared for the then-upcoming PS4. In a 21-second clip that has over 20 million views on YouTube, one PlayStation executive simply handed a game box—presumably with disc inside—to another, who said “thanks.” Sony’s possible motivations The PlayStation announcement today cites “consumer preferences” and a shift away from discs among “the broader entertainment industry,” but does not delve into the decision-making process that brought Sony to this point. Sony is not discussing the economics of this move (I asked!), but there are a number of potential factors: Abandoning discs will spare Sony the cost of manufacturing and shipping them, which analysts and industry veterans I spoke to said could account for $1 or so of a game’s retail price. For first-party games, that’s direct savings for Sony, though the amount is limited by the winnowing percentage of people who were even buying the disc-based versions. For third-party games, Sony could pass the savings on to partners or just retain the better profit margin for themselves. As the 2024 comments from Phil Spencer alluded to, leaving discs behind could mean leaving disc-drives behind, allowing Sony to produce consoles more cheaply. Switching to digital-only for games could diminish the risks of copies of new games leaking. It would also seemingly make second-hand sales of used games impossible, pushing more people to buy their own copies of games. These economic benefits for Sony could be boons for the games industry overall, Ampere analyst Piers Harding-Rolls tells Game File. Among other things, it could free publishers and retailers from having to worry about securing an inventory of game discs when trying to sell games, he noted. “If there is a way to streamline the business of games retail, I generally think it’s a good thing for the industry as it removes unnecessary costs,” Harding-Rolls said. “This will help offset pressure on margins from other directions – development and staffing costs for example.” Should the industry shift from game boxes that contain discs to smaller, cheaper game cards, Harding-Rolls said, that reduces pressure on publishers and retailers. “The advantage of everything going digital for the industry is that sales can be tracked much more easily and there is less commercial risk for publishers wanting to continue selling via retail,” he said. The shift to no discs will also likely impact game development timelines, as developers will no longer face the same urgency to have a build ready to submit to PlayStation for the production of a disc, as industry experts noted around GTA VI’s no-disc news last week. Instead, projects may gain weeks of development time, in the event delivery deadlines for platform approval move closer to release date. Preservationists’ likely worries While millions of gamers have shifted to digital, there are still people who associate game discs—and only game discs—with actual ownership of PlayStation games. That portion of the gaming community spoke up last week about wanting to buy a version of GTA VI that they could hold in their hands, could lend to a friend and could potentially pop into a well-preserved PS5 console three decades from now and still see it run. Such gamers didn’t want to worry that they’d merely purchased a digital copy that could lose access to the game if, say, the company behind the game someday turns of the servers that transmit downloadable copies. Digital copies of games are inherently less long-lasting, because consumers aren’t actually buying a game (on a disc), just buying access to the game. The fine print in online gaming shops notes this, as does a recent law that went on the books in California in 2025. That lasw requires game publishers doing business in the state to refrain from words like “sell” when offering digital copies of games, unless they explicitly tell consumers that what’s being sold isn’t the game itself but a potentially revocable license to access it. A Sony spokesperson noted to Game File that “[w]ith all digital content, including games, movies, and music, players are purchasing a personal license for non-commercial use.” Regarding the fears of PlayStation games being lost to time in an all-digital era, the rep also noted that Sony remains “committed to delivering experiences from past generations to the new platforms our players are using.” They noted that PlayStation has used emulation and remasters to keep offering its classic games to modern gamers. It’s true that many consumers have become accustomed to not having physical copies of new music albums or movies, but the relative precariousness of digital copies of games is in fact being highlighted today by…. Sony’s other big announcement: the upcoming closure of the PS3 and PS Vita online stores Sony said today that it will be closing the online marketplaces for its PlayStation 3 console and PS Vita handheld in most countries in July 2027 (sooner elsewhere: August 2026 for the PS3 store Mexico, Honduras and Nicaragua; late 2026 for PS3 in other Latin American countries and the Middle East). “We know this news may be disappointing to PS3 and PS Vita players who hold a special place in their hearts for this generation of gaming,” Sony said in its announcement, saying the move “was not an easy decision for us to make.” Sony said that PS3 and Vita marketplaces “are no longer able” to support modern commerce systems, prompting a “need” to close the shops and focus on more modern PlayStation platform stores. The news may spark some deja vu. Sony announced back in March 2021 that it planned to take the PS3, Vita and PlayStation Portable marketplaces offline that summer. The move would have caused some 2,000 digital-only games to become unavailable for new purchasers, according to a VGC analysis at the time. Fans complained loudly. By April 2021, Sony walked back the PS3 and Vita shop closures, with then PlayStation boss Jim Ryan saying “it’s clear that we made the wrong decision here.” This time around, Sony is giving a longer notice period in most regions. The closure of those stores is still likely to cut off access to new purchases of digital-only PS3 and Vita games. The current PlayStation 5 marketplace sells PS5 and PS4 games, as well as a selection of PS1 and PS2 games. It does not sell PS3 games, because games for that platform can’t run on the system (some are offered via a PlayStation Plus streaming option). Vita games also aren’t sold via PS5. Sony says digitally purchased PS3 and Vita games will be downloadable after the stores’ shutdowns “for the foreseeable future.” Sony’s move contrasts with Microsoft’s Xbox platform, which continues to sell and support games from all four Xbox console generations. But it puts it in line with Nintendo, which disabled purchases in the marketplace for its Wii console (a contemporary of the PS3) in 2019. Nintendo discontinued purchases in the online shop for its 3DS portable (a contemporary of the Vita) in 2023. The big questions about Sony’s 2028 post-disc era Will Microsoft follow suit, ending support for new disc-based games on Xbox platforms and therefore all game consoles, too? Whether Microsoft does or not, will third-parties that can no longer release games on discs for PlayStation, simply ditch the disc options across the board? Given the GTA VI no-disc experiment launching this November, will more game publishers decide to forgo disc-based offerings even in 2027? How will no-disc PS5/6 games be packaged and sold in brick-and-mortar retail stores? What becomes of game sharing in an all-digital era? Will Sony modify its current set-up, which currently allows some sharing of digital games across a pair of consoles, to allow more casual lending? (See for example, Nintendo’s year-old system of letting players lend a digital game to another player in a “family group” for up to 14 days.) Will there be a version of a PS6 with a disc drive? Or will a drive be offered as an add-on? And how will gamers who want to retain access to PS4/PS5 disc-based games react to whichever configurations Sony chooses to offer? What will the final disc-based PlayStation game be?
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