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Pirates made a mistake signing Marcell Ozuna over Andrew McCutchen
The Bucs made a bad decision.
From Vision to Reality: Sports Complex Initiative Takes Center Stage at April Greenville-Pitt Power Luncheon
A major community initiative is coming into focus this April, and local leaders will have a front-row seat to the conversation. Andrew Schmidt, President &
What it takes to build Coachella's most recognizable icon
INDIO, Calif. — Scroll through Instagram any time in April and you'll see a stream of photos that are instantly recognizable as being from the Coachella Valley Music and Arts
Bernier Insurance Agency to Host Greater Rochester Chamber of Commerce April Business After Hours
The Greater Rochester Chamber of Commerce is pleased to announce that Bernier Insurance Agency will host a Business After Hours event on Wednesday, April 15, 2026, from 5:30 to 7:00 PM. The event will take place at Bernier Insurance Agency, located at 32 Wakefield Street in Rochester. Celebrating its 45th year in downtown Rochester, Bernier...
🥐Champions week, Liga hangover... Monday's 5️⃣ stories
It’s a key week and one of the most important of the year because of everything at stake, and the news is clear. No Mbappé two days before MunichWith still two days to go before the battle at the A...
China’s TCL Is Said to Consider Stake Sale in India TV Business
TCL Electronics Holdings Ltd. is considering selling a stake in its Indian television manufacturing unit to local buyers to help grow the business, people familiar with the situation said.
Northern Ireland swimmers ready to take on best in Commonwealth
BBC Sport NI looks at swimmers hoping to be confirmed as part of the Northern Ireland squad for the 2026 Commonwealth Games in Glasgow.
The top 10 most challenging positions in sports
The Panther has crafted a comprehensive list of the toughest positions and events across all sports based on conversations with Chapman athletes. Which will take the top spot?
Golden Knights look to continue momentum vs. Jets
The Vegas Golden Knights clinched a Stanley Cup playoff berth for the eighth time in their nine years of existence with a 3-2 overtime win over Colorado on Saturday. But don't look for John Tortorella's team to take the foot off the pedal in their final two regular-season contests.
IMF director says shock from US-Iran War is 'baked' into the economy
War has ravaged the Middle East for 43 days, but the damage could take years to repair amid tension at the Strait of Hormuz and damaged oil hubs.
Universities Allied for Essential Medicines advocates for affordable health care
While a vial of insulin takes as little as $2 to manufacture, it can cost consumers $250 in the United States. Universities Allied for Essential Medicines, an international advocacy organization that has chapters at universities including UCLA, raised awareness about medication unaffordability during its annual North American conference at the Neuroscience Research Building from April 3 to 5.
Wisconsin AD McIntosh to take new position at Big Ten
Wisconsin AD Chris McIntosh is set to become the Big Ten’s chief strategy officer, reporting directly to Tony Petitti. Exact responsibilities are TBD.
Wisconsin AD McIntosh to take new position at Big Ten
Wisconsin AD Chris McIntosh is set to become the Big Ten’s chief strategy officer, reporting directly to Tony Petitti. Exact responsibilities are TBD.
Minnesota politics: Previewing governor's race, Iran war impact | FOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul
Political analyst Blois Olson takes a look ahead to what could be the most expensive legislative race in Minnesota history. He also examines how the war in Iran could impact voting choices in rural areas.
Ravens oddly take Mark Andrews replacement in latest mock draft
This would be an interesting move.
How Golden Entertainment (GDEN) Narratives Are Shifting As Analysts Recut Targets And Takeover Nears
Golden Entertainment’s fair value estimate has been nudged from US$30.50 to US$30.00 per share, a small adjustment that still keeps the story focused around a US$30 mark. Some analysts view this US$0.50 trim as an incremental shift that reflects updated valuation inputs rather than a major change in the underlying outlook, while more cautious voices see it as a signal of reduced conviction at recent prices. As you read on, you will see how this updated target fits into the evolving analyst...
Health Issues Linked to Obesity Differ Between Men and Women
Women and men with obesity have different health issues, which should be taken into account when suggesting treatments or interventions.
Coachella 2026: The story of the festival's Ferris wheel, La Grande XL
You've seen Coachella's Ferris wheel throughout your social media feeds. We talked to the operators about what it takes to put together La Grande XL.
Gary Woodland takes another step at managing mental health at Masters
Gary Woodland believes he took another step toward managing his mental health issues. "Today was peaceful," he said after a 66 in final round of the Masters.
What Flutter Entertainment (FLUT)'s Board Shuffle, Buybacks and Quiet Dart Stake Mean For Shareholders
In recent days, Flutter Entertainment plc reported that long-serving independent director Alfred F. Hurley, Jr. will retire at the 2026 AGM, with Nancy Dubuc set to assume the role of Chair of the Compensation and Human Resources Committee, while the company continues executing a multi-billion-dollar share repurchase program. At the same time, billionaire investor Kenneth Dart has quietly built substantial economic exposure to Flutter through total return swaps, even as analysts question...
News Analysis: Trump's Strait of Hormuz blockade risks clash with China
It is a high-stakes moment ahead of a closely watched summit between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing next month.
Polls close in high-stakes Hungarian election as Magyar seeks to oust Orbán
Polls closed with a record-high turnout in Hungary’s crucial general election, with a freshly released survey suggesting Péter Magyar’s insurgent opposition is set to beat...
Alabama redshirt freshman QB turns heads with spring game performance
Keelon Russell was a five-star recruit in the 2025 class, and he could be in line to take over under center this fall after an electric spring game.
Minnesota politics: Previewing governor's race and Iran war impact | FOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul
Political analyst Blois Olson takes a look ahead to what could be the most expensive legislative race in Minnesota history. He also examines how the war in Iran could impact voting choices in rural areas.
Dons boss Robinson will not relax until safety is secured
Stephen Robinson does not want Aberdeen to relax during their two-week break after they recorded a much-needed 2-0 win over Hibernian to boost their William Hill Premiership survival hopes. Kevin Nisbet netted from the penalty spot after Grant Hanley was sent off for hauling down Toyosi Olusanya and the Scotland striker added a second with 15 minutes to go to end a nine-match winless league run. The Dons are five points above Kilmarnock, who sit in the relegation play-off spot with five games to play, and the two teams clash at Pittodrie in the next round of Premiership fixtures which does not take place until April 25.
Golfers battle Trump takeover of public golf courses as one becomes White House East Wing dumping ground
Pop culture takes center stage at Shenandoah Comic-Con
Warriors, robots, demons and more came out to play at Shenandoah Comic-Con at the Rockingham County Fairgrounds exhibit hall on Saturday.
Deadlock on Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear stockpile led to impasse, officials say
Entering this weekend’s high-stakes talks in Pakistan, US officials identified a number of key areas where they would need to see progress in order to declare success.
I used Meta's Muse Spark AI to rate my lunch and suggest dinner
Muse Sparks rated my lunch a 7.5 out of 10, told me to watch my sodium intake, and gave me dinner recipes that helped me get rid of leftovers.
Red Sox eager to build momentum in finale vs. Cards
Brayan Bello will take the mound on Sunday afternoon against the St. Louis Cardinals as the Boston Red Sox try to win their second consecutive series and first one on the road this season.
Let the state’s narrative-laundering season begin
Politics is a game of narrative. Whoever controls the narrative wins. Sure, the truth is interesting. But truth doesn’t sell. It takes time to uncover, assuming people care enough to go digging for it. Narratives are easier. They’re simple, comforting and come pre-approved by the crowd. Groupthink isn’t just easy. It’s safe. The truth, on […]
Entergy adds executives; new nonprofit CEO named, board additions at sports foundation
Take a look at some of the recent promotions and new hires announced at south Louisiana businesses.
Hungarians head to polls in crucial election
Pollsters predict a record turnout as EU future is likely at stake.
High school sports don't stop for the weekend. Here's what happened Saturday
The high school sports schedule doesn't take a weekend off. We've got the stories, scores and more from all of the games in Rhode Island played on Saturday, April 11, 2026.
Football fans are being taken for a ride by the NFL — the DOJ could stop that
Nobody should be surprised that the Justice Department has opened an investigation into the NFL’s antitrust exemption — but it’s far from clear how this game will end.
🚨 Tigres v Chivas line-ups confirmed
Tigres hosts Chivas this afternoon at El Volcán in one of the most attractive matches of the weekend. Guido Pizarro’s side will look to take all three points from the league leaders, which would he...
Colorado House finishes work on 2026-27 state budget, finally
The House on Saturday, after four days of work – it usually takes two – finished up their work and voted on the $46.8 billion 2026-27 state budget, as contained in House Bill 1410 and 64 accompanying measures designed to help balance the budget. The delay in getting to the finish line was caused by […]
ON THE JOB: “What is the Best Business Advice You’ve Ever Received?
Interviews by Deborah Jeanne Sergeant Sound advice can contribute to your success. We recently asked area business leaders, what was their best advice they’d ever received. Here’s what they said: “The best advice I ever received was from my then –boss, Gerry Church, Fulton plant manager at Miller Brewing Co. He told me that whenever I wanted to discuss a business problem or issue with him, I should also be prepared to offer possible solutions. It’s the difference between being proactive or reactive. It’s also the difference between being a leader or follower. That has served me well in any business relationship I have had since then.” — Stephen Chirello, Owner, Steve Chirello Advertising, Fulton “Someone will always do it for less; they will also take the most effort to service or satisfy and leave you for the next lower price.” — John M. Henry, Owner, Speedway Press, Mitchell Printing, Phoenix Press, Oswego “I’m going to answer this question by turning it around and giving my own advice that is, ‘Always treat every customer as if they were your only customer!’ We are celebrating our 50th anniversary in business this year. We started our business on March 25, 1976. My advice works.”” — Nick Chervinsky, President, Brewerton Pharmacy, Brewerton “’You need to toot your own horn, my grandfather, Howard D. Dice, told me.” — Beth Ann Dice, Women’s active aging and cancer recovery coach, Mission Movement Wellness Studio & Breast Cancer Recovery Studio, Fulton “In the micro enterprise class, they taught, ‘Get a good lawyer, accountant and bank.’ That was over 30 years ago and I still have those three today. I chose good people I could grow with.” — Tony Pauldine, Owner, Anthony M. Pauldine General Contractors Inc., Oswego “From my grandfather; ‘Listen to everyone! You never know where you will get the solution you need.’” — Kevin Dean, Executive director, Oswego County Opportunities, Fulton “‘Preparation is the mother of success.’ My dad always drilled that into my head growing up, and it has helped me avoid a lot of snags in both my personal and professional life. Thanks, Dad!” — Bekkah Frisch, Owner and president, iHeart Holdings, Inc., Fulton “If you don’t take a risk and try, you will never know.” — Justin Taber, Owner, Torbitt’s Service Center, Oswego “Be ready to take a loss.” — Cody Seymour, Manager, Damiano’s Eatery, Mexico “I’ve received so much good business advice over the years. When people are giving you advice, always be curious rather than judgmental. Follow your gut. Doing the right thing is never the wrong thing.” — Dana Decker, Principal owner/broker, Berkshire Hathaway Home Services, Oswego ’Do it and figure it out later.’ It hasn’t failed me yet. Too many people take time to think about doing this and this and this and then the opportunity is over with. If it’s somewhat reasonable — if it’s not something outrageous — do it and figure it out later.” — Jeremy Allen, Licensed real estate salesperson, Acropolis Realty Group, Syracuse “’Try to meet the needs of the customer. Treat them like you’d like to be treated.’ It’s like the Golden Rule says.” — Douglas Dickson, Physician and associate at CNY Foot Surgery and Podiatry Care, East Syracuse “The best piece of business advice I’ve ever received applies to life in general: always be honest. Never overstate your capabilities and always be willing to ask questions. The more specific you can be in any given topic will always lead to a better outcome.” — Tom Fernandez, President, Woodbine Hospitality, Syracuse “As a business owner, the advice would be ‘Don’t overextend yourself. Especially in agriculture, expect issues to come up.’ If something is going right, it’s not true agriculture. This last season, we scaled very hard to field another crew. We got more drones, crew and generators based on projections. This last season hit the ag community hard with a very wet spring. We did 15,000 to 20,000 acres for fungicide and the same for cover crop seeding in 2024. We scaled to 25,000 to 30,000 for 2025. We ended up doing 2,000 for fungicide and 3,000 for cover crop seeding. That’s why that advice was good.” — Rick Jordan, Operations manager, CNY Drove Services, Clinton “’Keep your head down, mind your own business and do the best for your clients that you can do.’ It has a lot to do with my success in working for Galloway Century 21.” — Ed Fayette, New York state licensed real estate agent, Century 21 Galloway, Oswego “’Expand in all ways, always.’ It just keeps you going and keeps you growing.” — Stephen Baier, Licensed real estate person, The Real Estate Agency & Bouck Commercial, Auburn “The best advice is, ‘Your biggest asset you won’t see on the books because it comes from your employees.’” — David Flickinger, Owner, Edible Arrangements, Syracuse “Don’t take things personally when you’re working with the public.” — Leeann Desimone, Manager, Annie’s Hallmark Shop, Auburn “‘Follow up.’ The customer knows that you care about what you are doing and that their opinion counts. Sometimes they might be on the fence about whether they want to use your company. If they’re asking your opinion on things, they feel you are concerned about what you’re doing. They like to be kept in the loop if they’re spending money with you.” — Dorothy Casper, Saslesperson, SweetWoods Memorials, Phoenix “The best business advice I received is ‘Never be the smartest person in the room. Surround yourself with people who are smarter than you.’ That’s how you learn.” — Debbie Bilello, Owner, Virtual Office Solutions, Central Square “’You need to grow your business but you can’t grow too big too fast.’ That’s what we’ve done at Pinnacle Maintenance. We’ve tried to grow but not too fast. Along those same lines, there’s another good piece of advice, ‘Don’t take on more than you can handle because it only leads to a bad name for your business and a bad experience for your customers.’ It goes along the same lines as growing your business slowly and carefully.” — David Wines, Owner, Pinnacle Maintenance, Central Square “Always be on time and do what you say you are going to do.’ I’ve done very well following that advice. Most of my work is referral and I don’t really do any advertising so I have a pretty good customer base. It’s mostly word-of-mouth from satisfied customers.” — Robert J. Fleming, Owner, Bob Fleming Windows & Doors, Brewerton “’Concentrate on your finances, always pay your taxes, and form a team you can depend on. Try to help the community you’re in as much as you can.’ We do all of these all the time here. We give and give and give to the community and the community gives back to us always.” — Susan Bonnet, Co-owner, Bonnet Sales and Service, Central Square “Keep smiling. It brings a positive attitude to the workplace.” — Karin Lindsley, Vice president, DTS Truck Service, Syracuse “‘Customer service above all.’ Following this advice has served us very well.’ — Guy Fox, Owner, Fox’s Discount Parts, West Monroe “The best thing to do is to make sure you’re taking in more money than you’re spending. I wish I could say I’m a good businessman but I have been in business since 1981. I’m not a bean counter but work well with my hands and its’s served me well all these years and I am still in business.” — Matt McGill, Owner, Matt McGill Collision, Brewerton
Seniors: Carol Watson, 72
Owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping in LaFayette enjoys her growing business — still puts in six-, seven-day weeks By Mary Beth Roach Carol Watson, the owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping, has been in gardens since she could walk. Literally. She said she learned to walk in her grandfather’s garden, which was next door to her current home and business in LaFayette. Today, at 72, she is running the business that her mother, Claire, opened in 1981 as Watson Greenhouse. Watson worked part-time for her mom until 1990, when she joined her full time. While she may not have had any formal horticultural experience, she said she learned so much about growing and raising plants from her mom, who had an abundance of energy and talent. Now, after 35 years in the business full time, Watson has no plans to retire, although she joked that she’d like a couple of days off a week. On her seven-acre site, complete with four greenhouses, Watson said her favorite parts of the job are working with and educating her customers; helping some of her young customers build terrariums; conducting occasional class field trips; and supporting local art by decorating the shop with an eclectic mix of pottery from at least four area craftspeople. A one-time employee of the former Dey Bros. department store in Syracuse, Watson said she loves merchandising and enjoys displaying unique pieces of art on shelves and even suspending from ceilings. “We’re creative. We also had top quality plants. We got a reputation of quality plants and unusual products,” she said. It’s tending to her customers and her plants, showcasing the unusual products, and hosting special events to benefit the community that keep her motivated to work six to seven days a week. “I just love it. I love taking care of the plants. I’m one of the few people that really enjoys watering,” she said. And while she has cultivated a solid customer base over the years, she remains savvy in her marketing efforts to draw in new customers. For example, she does a gardening segment on CNY Central television; her active Facebook page has thousands of followers; and she hosts a number of unique events and classes that not only introduce her shop to potential new clients, but some benefit nonprofits as well. About 13 years ago, when the local symphony orchestra was struggling, she said she wanted to help. So, partnering with the group, she began offering concerts, called Soirees, featuring the Syracuse Orchestra’s string quartet. Following up on a suggestion from a customer whose brother is a deejay in retirement, specializing in sock hops, she hosted the greenhouse’s first sock hop. Plants got moved back toward the walls to make room for dancing; a caterer was brought in, offering diner-like food; guests came in period outfits; and proceeds went to the Food Bank of CNY. She is excited about doing it again in October. Via her website, she promotes the greenhouse as an “oasis in the snow,” offering visitors the opportunity to pick up some decorating and gift ideas while taking in the floral and citrus scents. And she also caters to her four-legged friends. Over this past winter, she said, she came up with a “brilliant idea,” although at the time she didn’t appreciate just how brilliant it would become. Feeling it too cold outside to take her dog for a walk, she opted to bring it into the greenhouse. And before long, she was inviting people to bring their dogs into the big greenhouse as well. She looks forward to extending that invitation again this upcoming winter season. For Watson and her customers, the greenhouse is always in season.
If You Visit JoJo’s Diner, Bring Your Appetite
By Stefan Yablonski Q: When did you open? A: We opened Oct. 1. Q: Did you have a previous business? A: This is my first business ever. Q: So why did you start this? A: I was cooking for people my entire life and I decided I’m just going to try it on my own. And here we are! Q: How’s business been? A: It’s been good. Kind of slow over the winter, but starting to pick up now that the weather is getting better. We have high hopes for spring. We were really hopping over the weekend when it was much nicer out. Q: What’s your best dish? A: Our junkyard plates are our huge specialty. It’s a huge messy plate of goodness. We also have breakfast sandwiches, waffles, smashburgers and more. Q: Do you own this building? A: We lease from Chuck Burger. He’s our landlord. He has been super helpful. He provided all the equipment. I didn’t have to. Q: You’re a breakfast spot? A: We do breakfast and lunch all day. It’s kind of our thing. We are open 7-3 every day except Tuesdays. Q: How big is your staff? A: Currently it’s one other person. It’s just been me on the front end and someone in the kitchen or vice versa. Q: It’s all to go? A: Everything comes out ‘to go’ — served in to-go containers. You can eat inside or you can take it with you. We don’t have to provide extra staff for waitresses and dishwashers and all that. Q: Do you have any business background? A: I did the small business program at the college. But that’s about it. We’re new, but we’re still building. We hope to grow and stay here for a long time.
Tribute show to feature Beatles, Stones
Beatles vs. Stones tribute show will take the stage April 16 at the Capitol Arts Complex in Rome with music from both iconic bands.
Takeaways From the First Big Gathering of Potential 2028 Democratic Candidates
The National Action Network convention showcased similarities and some differences in a wide open field of possible contenders.
Defiant Swalwell still sees a path to victory in governor's race
So far, Swalwell is casting the allegations against him as a political conspiracy to take down the frontrunner for the governor’s office.
Golden Knights have chance to clinch playoff berth against Avalanche
It has taken longer than anticipated for the Vegas Golden Knights to reach this point, but better late than never.
See inside the first night of Hondo Rodeo: Cowboys, ropers, Lynyrd Skynyrd take on NOLA
This country extravaganza had it all.
Local View: Parable of three donors illustrates money in politics
From the column: "If the candidate takes the cash, it will be commingled into one larger snowball of contributions to make larger buys with diminishing marginal returns in voters per dollar."
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Apple Highlights Photos Shot on iPhone During NASA's Mission to Moon
As we previously reported, astronauts aboard NASA's Orion spacecraft used the iPhone 17 Pro Max to take selfies of themselves with the Earth in the background during the Artemis II mission around the far side of the Moon last week. Now that the crew members have safely returned to Earth, Apple's CEO Tim Cook and marketing chief Greg Joswiak have both turned to social media to congratulate them on their successful mission and highlight the iPhone's involvement.
Atlético Madrid ‘astounded’ by Barcelona’s refereeing complaints
The fallout from Barcelona’s defeat to Atletico Madrid continues to intensify, with the Madrid-based club now responding to the actions taken by Barcelona following the controversial encounter.After...
2026 NFL mock draft 8.1: Cardinals surprise with their picks (yes, plural), while Giants take a weapon at No. 5
These women had their breasts removed to thwart cancer. Then came the pain.
Many women are afflicted by post-mastectomy pain syndrome, which spans from uncomfortable to disabling and can last years. It’s inconsistently diagnosed and treated, leaving some women in agony as they hunt for relief and struggle to find doctors who take their pain seriously.
A longshot, upset bid and a few quick takes
It is hard to keep up these days. The flow of news often seems overwhelming. Let’s focus today on an unusual congressional race before moving on to a few quick, supplementary observations. Since its creation 54 years ago, Congressional District 5 has been represented by a grand total of five people – Bill Armstrong, Ken […]
A key criminal case could soon get tossed because of acting Attorney General Todd Blanche’s comments
As Todd Blanche takes the reins at the Justice Department, a federal judge is set to decide whether controversial remarks made last year by the now-acting attorney general should lead to the unravelling of one of the Trump administration’s marquee criminal cases.
Yankees news: Volpe slated to start upon return
Volpe expected to retake starting gig once healthy; flaws emerge as Yanks nosedive from hot start; Average salary in MLB rises; Mike Ford retires, takes role in Rays’ front office.
Three Takeaways from the Rockets' Shocking Loss to The Timberwolves
The Houston Rockets' win streak gets snapped at the hands of the Minnesota Timberwolves in an unexpected loss at home.
Juventus predicted lineup and team news vs Atalanta
Juventus make the trip to Bergamo this Saturday night to take on Atalanta in Serie A.Only four points separate the two sides — Juventus sit fifth with 57 points from 31 games, while Atalanta are sev...
Framework CEO warns AI boom may lead to a scenario where "personal computing as we know it is dead”
Framework CEO Nirav Patel warns that the AI boom and a “winner-takes-all” scramble for chips and storage could drive up component costs and push consumers toward cloud-leased, closed devices, effectively ending personal computing as traditionally understood. While acknowledging progress in repairability across the industry, he positions Framework’s upcoming Next Gen Event as part of a renewed pledge to defend user ownership through upgradable, repairable hardware and local control over data and computation.
Vance meets Pakistan PM as US-Iran peace talks begin
Pakistan has emerged as a key player in efforts to extend a fragile ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, hosting high-stakes talks involving Vice President JD Vance and senior advisers as both sides explore a path toward a more lasting agreement.
Altoona business owner accused of fraud
The owner and operator of Tipton Construction in Altoona was taken into custody Wednesday for allegedly committing a string of home improvement frauds. John Bailey Tipton II, 44, was arraigned Thursday by Magisterial District Judge Benjamin F. Jones on seven felony counts of making a false statement to induce agreement for home improvement services, five […]
Quiz: This week in politics
It was another busy week in national politics. Take this quiz to see what you know and what you missed.
Quiz: This week in politics
It was another busy week in national politics. Take this quiz to see what you know and what you missed.
Quiz: This week in politics
It was another busy week in national politics. Take this quiz to see what you know and what you missed.
Kamala Harris' early 2028 advantage: From the Politics Desk
Plus, Cuba's president takes a defiant stance in the face of Trump’s threats.
What’s at stake as Michigan voters weigh constitutional convention question
Conservatives could try to repeal the state constitution's guarantee of the right to an abortion.
Baptist Health confirms Cigna contract termination, here’s what that means for patients
Certain Baptist Health patients are expected see a shift in insurance coverage after Cigna Healthcare terminated its agreement with the health system, set to take effect June 23, 2026.
YouTube Premium price increase to take effect in June
Google announced it will increase YouTube Premium prices for the first time since 2023. The new prices will take effect in June.
Broncos ownership group becomes largest minority partner of Rockies, reportedly buys 40 percent stake in MLB club
Broncos owners buy 40 percent stake in Rockies, providing financial boost to MLB team
Penner Sports Group will be the largest minority partner in the Rockies organization.
Flourishing entrepreneur: How one student manages college life with business hustle
Balancing school and work is never easy, but one Brigham Young University student has taken their ambitions outside of the classroom and said her success smells an awful lot like flowers.
2026 NFL mock draft 8.1: Cardinals surprise with their picks (yes, plural), while Giants take a weapon at No. 5
Senator contacts leagues over 'gambling's ugly takeover'
As prediction markets expand partnerships with major U.S. sports leagues, a U.S. senator sent letters to six league commissioners Thursday raising concerns about "gambling's ugly takeover of sports."
This Women’s Health Company Is Drawing Takeover Interest. The Stock Is Soaring.
Organon stock jumped after a report said Sun Pharmaceutical Industries is nearing an all-cash deal for the women’s health company.
This Women’s Healthcare Stock Is Up 15% on Reports of a Takeover In the Works
Organon shares surged Friday following reports India’s Sun Pharmaceutical made a bid for the women's healthcare company.
Every Davidson player drafted by the Boston Celtics
Let's take a look at every player who has been drafted by the Celtics out of Davidson.
Bitter medicine: How California’s hospital bills end up depressing your take-home pay
Hospitals are suing a state agency that limits their cost increases. Their bills inflate health insurance premiums, leaving employers with less money for wages.
Trump administration admits a glaring error in its accusations about New York health care fraud
NEW YORK (AP) — President Donald Trump's administration this week acknowledged it made a significant error in figures it used to help justify a fraud probe into New York’s Medicaid program, a glaring mistake that undercuts a federal campaign to tackle waste, mostly in Democratic-led states.
Top takeaways from Youngkin's Hannity interview
The former governor talked future plans, Trump ties and his Richmond election strategy.
Ohio wants to ban mobile sports betting. It's about time
Ohio’s legalization of sports betting has turned a game into something with much higher stakes.
Umatilla to celebrate grand opening of new business center
UMATILLA — The city of Umatilla announced it will hold a ribbon-cutting ceremony and grand opening on May 8 for the new Umatilla Business Center. The event takes place 5:30-8:30 […]
Lansing small business empowerment program accepting applications
Time is running out for small businesses to take advantage of a program designed to help them grow.
Is ‘office air’ ruining your look at work? Science says it’s possible
A TikTok trend has Gen Z and Millennial office workers sharing before-and-after photos at work, questioning whether the “office air” affects their appearance. NBC News’ Emilie Ikeda takes a look at the claims and how experts say there’s some truth to the theory.
Barcelona Complains to UEFA Over 'Incomprehensible Refereeing' After UCL Loss
Barcelona have taken the extraordinary step of filing a formal complaint to UEFA following their controversial 2-0 Champions League defeat to Atletico Madrid.
Small business, big questions
What does it take to run a small business in a San Francisco boom cycle? We'll discuss at Chat Room: Money
Take It from a New Business Owner: Your SMB Bankers Just Don't Get It
You're treating SMB onboarding as a set of tasks. Wrong: Your new small business client is looking to start a relationship.
Automatic military draft registration takes effect in December. Here’s how it would work
Young, eligible men will be automatically registered for the military draft pool starting in December as part of a measure tucked into the annual defense policy bill Congress signed into law late last year.
African American Health Symposium highlights support for those impacted by Alzheimer's
This year's theme: "It Takes a Village: Faith, Family and Community in Caregiving."
WATCH: Democratic presidential prospects flock to Al Sharpton's conference in New York
The Democratic Party's most ambitious politicians are courting African American activists in New York this week as the party's unofficial 2028 presidential nomination contest takes shape at an annual conference led by Rev. Al Sharpton.
John Peters, Eddie Speir, Ed Pope build up coffers to run for open CD 16 seat
Will any have what it takes to beat Sydney Gruters?
The lifesaving catch that changed everything
Javon Brumsey's lifesaving catch saw him take on heart surgery and recover with the ECU Health Cardiovascular and Pulmonary Rehab program.
Wendy Loretto Takes Helm at Glasgow’s Adam Smith Business School With Global Ambitions
Wendy Loretto becomes head of Glasgow’s Adam Smith Business School, outlining plans to boost global visibility, expand partnerships, and shape the future of business education.
Pixel Phone app starts rolling out custom Take a Message greetings
The Pixel’s Take a Message feature that answers calls on your behalf and lets you view live transcripts is now adding custom greetings.
NC builders chase billions in defense deals at Wilmington conference
A big federal construction conference takes place next week at the convention center in Wilmington. It is the Southeast Region Construction, Infrastructure and Environmental Summit, held by the North Carolina Military Business Center. Courtney Smedick at the NCMBC says that the conference is about to sell out, so if you want to attend, you should […]
McKinney advances plans for 300-acre sports and entertainment complex
City leaders in McKinney have taken the first step toward developing a new entertainment amenity in the Collin County seat. McKinney City Council on April 7 authorized the city manager to negotiate a...
Lehigh Set to Take on Colgate in Hamilton NY on CBS Sports Network
HAMILTON, N.Y. -The Lehigh Mountain Hawks travel to face the Colgate Raiders on Friday, with the opening faceoff set for 6:30 p.m. The game will be televised...
Rep. Seth Moulton picks: Josh Shapiro or Gavin Newsrom?
Democratic Rep. Seth Moulton, who launched a primary challenge against Sen. Ed Markey to represent Massachusetts in the U.S. Senate, answered rapid-fire questions on his decision to return money from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), his past comments about trans athletes and his stance on ICE. With the 2026 elections underway, The Post's Anna Liss-Roy is grilling candidates in races across the country, pressing Democrats and Republicans to share their takes at high-speed.
Eurobites: DT beams up Starlink for business broadband
Also in today's EMEA regional roundup: lenders take control of Gigaclear; Liquid C2 offers Google Cloud experience; Ofcom replaces a Lord with a Knight.
The 2026 WNBA Draft board is a puzzle — here’s how it fits together now
In USA TODAY's latest WNBA mock draft, UCLA's Lauren Betts takes the No. 1 spot, her highest position yet, after March Madness.
Conservative Activists Take Aim At Native Hawaiian Health Scholarship
A new lawsuit filed by a legal advocacy nonprofit says a 35-year-old federal scholarship program that brought Native Hawaiian doctors to the islands is unconstitutional.