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How downtown San Antonio businesses prepare for Fiesta
A few businesses downtown have front row seats to road and river parades, which bring good business for some and less customers for others.
Wazdakka Gutsmek rules revealed – Launch your own Speedwaaagh!
Lead your Warbikers to the biggest and best fights around.
WECT INVESTIGATES: Hampstead business owner faces felony charge, state investigation
A Hampstead pool contractor faces a felony charge after accusations of taking customers' money and not finishing projects.
Walnut Ridge business closures part of national trend, leaders say
Several national chains have shut down or are preparing to leave Walnut Ridge, but the Lawrence County Chamber of Commerce says the closures are part of a national trend and the organization is working to turn the situation into an opportunity.
House eyes possible expulsion of multiple members as it returns to Washington
Both parties appear to be factoring in the razor-thin majority that Republicans hold in the chamber as they weigh whether to oust members.
Project 2025 author Paul Dans drops primary challenge to Lindsey Graham in South Carolina
Trump reacted to Dans' announcement with a social media post suggesting that Tucker Carlson's endorsement of Dans had been the "KISS OF DEATH” for his campaign.
Cook Political Report shifts four Senate races toward Democrats
The Cook Political Report shifted four Senate races to the left on Monday but noted that the GOP is still favored to maintain its majority in the upper chamber this November. “With an increasingly…
Baylor S3E hosts, places 3rd at National Collegiate Sports Sales Championship
It may just be the biggest stage in sports sales for a student. Representing their schools at an NBA or NHL arena, students step up to the table with industry professionals (who may someday be their colleagues) and make their pitch. If it feels like an NCAA competition, that’s intentional -- and it’
Games Workshop brings seven classic Warhammer games to Steam for the first time
Fans of miniature plastic soldiers, rejoice. Games Workshop has brought a host of older Warhammer and Warhammer 40K video games to Steam for the first time.
Hezbollah official says the group won't abide by any agreements from Lebanon-Israel talks in the US
A senior Hezbollah official says the Lebanese militant group will not abide by any agreements made in upcoming direct talks between Israel and Lebanon in the United States.
More Than 20 Classic Warhammer PC Games Just Hit Steam, Including Shadow of the Horned Rat, Warhammer 40,000: Fire Warrior, and Space Hulk — Check Out the List in Full
More than 20 classic Warhammer PC video games have hit Steam as part of a new Warhammer Classics initiative. Check out the list in full.
Small Business Expo with SouthWest Mobile County Chamber
The SouthWest Mobile County Chamber of Commerce will host an inside-outside community event on Wednesday, April 22, 2026, from 2:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m.
BYU professor seeks to improve local political outreach
Looking to reform local political efforts in Utah County, Darin Self has a community-based approach to getting people involved in politics.
Cristian Romero: Tottenham captain to miss rest of season after suffering knee injury in Sunderland defeat
Spurs captain Romero out for rest of season with injury
Tottenham captain Cristian Romero is set to miss the rest of the season with the knee injury he sustained their 1-0 defeat at Sunderland.
Iran war has some US water utilities facing a fluoride shortage
Some U.S. water utilities are reporting that the Middle East war is disrupting their ability to maintain recommended fluoride levels in the drinking water.
Longtime WDIV sports reporter Jamie Edmonds reveals breast cancer diagnosis
Longtime WDIV sports reporter Jamie Edmonds revealed Monday morning that she has been diagnosed with breast cancer.
Business Notes: NSU raises $147M; McDonald’s to open in Virginia Beach
Norfolk State University’s Now Is Our Time campaign raised $147 million, exceeding its original $90 million goal. View the latest business news in Hampton Roads.
Filmmaking Stony Brook Brothers to be Honored at Long Island Music and Entertainment Hall of Fame
Screening of Famulari brother’s debut film “Best Man” as part of Local Filmmaker Series Brothers Anthony and Ryan Famulari from Stony Brook will be recognized by LIMEHOF with a screening and Q&A of their debut feature ‘Best Man’ on April 24 th as part of the local filmmaker series. Stony Brook, NY — The Long Island Music and Entertainment Hall of Fame (LIMEHOF) will host Stony Brook filmmaking brothers Ryan Famulari and Anthony Famulari on April 24 th at 7pm at LIMEHOF in Stony Brook (97 Main Street) as part of its Local Filmmaker Series. The two will screen their debut feature ‘Best Man’. The film screening will be followed by Q&A moderated by LIMEHOF Vice Chairman Tom Needham. The event is free for members and $10 for non-members.
Coffeehouse to feature music, Downeast humor, pie
Tim Joy and Bonnie Guerrette will entertain at a Coffeehouse at Hammond Hall in Winter Harbor on Friday, April 24, at 7 p.m.
Philippine President Marcos debunks health rumors with jumping jacks
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has dismissed rumors about his health by doing jumping jacks and jogging outside his office.
After falling during hurdles, Beckham Borquez shall rise again
Sherman Oaks Notre Dame hurdler Beckham Borquez fell while competing in hurdles at the Arcadia Invitational, but he is planning an immediate comeback.
9 questions radiology practices should ask when pursuing ‘disruptive innovation’
CHAMPIONSGATE, Fla. Kaihan Krippendorff, MBA, spoke on April 12 during the opening keynote of the Radiology Business Management Association’s annual meeting.
Framingham State has 2 million reasons to rename its science labs
Framingham State University is renaming Hemenway Laboratories after receiving a $2 million donation from a retired professor.
Free Press' Miss Hockey winner stayed confident all season long
Essex junior Calleigh Bruyns named the Free Press' Miss Hockey for the 2025-26 season. Bruyns led Essex to the D-I championship game.
Bernier Insurance Agency to Host Greater Rochester Chamber of Commerce April Business After Hours
The Greater Rochester Chamber of Commerce is pleased to announce that Bernier Insurance Agency will host a Business After Hours event on Wednesday, April 15, 2026, from 5:30 to 7:00 PM. The event will take place at Bernier Insurance Agency, located at 32 Wakefield Street in Rochester. Celebrating its 45th year in downtown Rochester, Bernier...
Arsenal's teetering title challenge
Arsenal's shock 2-1 defeat by Bournemouth at Emirates Stadium means Mikel Arteta's side have picked up just 70 points from 32 games this season. The last Premier League champion to have as few points with six games left to play was Leicester City on 69 points in 2015-16. Only three teams in the last 22 seasons have had as few points at this stage of the season and went on to win the title - Manchester United in 2010-11 (69 points), Manchester City in 2013-14 (70 points) and Leicester City in 2015-16 (69 points).
Bayern planning second summer signing
After joining Bayern Munich on loan from Gambinos Stars Africa in January, Bara Sapoko Ndiaye finally made his debut for the German champions in their 5-0 win over FC St. Pauli on Saturday, coming off...
🥐Champions week, Liga hangover... Monday's 5️⃣ stories
It’s a key week and one of the most important of the year because of everything at stake, and the news is clear. No Mbappé two days before MunichWith still two days to go before the battle at the A...
🗞️Today's headlines: No giving up, and a flying Lamine
The week begins revving up ahead of the Champions League quarter-final second legs.It is the week of truth for Madrid, Barça and Atleti in the Champions League, and the sports press wakes up with ral...
In VfB masterclass: why Mittelstädt just let fly
In VfB Stuttgart’s impressive performance against Hamburger SV, Maximilian Mittelstädt was especially in the spotlight. The left-back not only delivered a flawless defensive display in the Swabians...
Kyle Hamilton praises Mike Mickens' technique and coaching style
Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton praises new DB coach Mike Mickens' 'rare' technique-oriented style, recalling their Notre Dame days.
Election loss for Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán has ripple effects for Trump, US conservatives
The big election over the weekend was in a small European country nearly half a world away from Washington, but the defeat of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has significant reverberations in the United States.
Warhammer Classics brings legendary games back to your PC
Shadow of the Horned Rat, Chaos Gate, Dark Omen, Fire Warrior and more have returned.
At 100 days, Mamdani leans into ‘pothole politics’ and child care push
The mayor focused on child care and worker gains, arguing that basic services are key to rebuilding trust in government.
NH Food Bank unveils new brand and strategic vision
The New Hampshire Food Bank, a program of Catholic Charities New Hampshire, has launched a new brand and strategic vision, including a new logo, mission statement and vision statement. The
Brewers expecting 'bad news' after losing Christian Yelich to hamstring injury, dropping 5th straight in sweep by Nationals
Yankees Social Media Spotlight: At Least Jeter’s Happy
Derek Jeter’s Michigan Wolverines won the NCAA Men’s National Championship. Nothing else of note happened this week.
Brewers lose Christian Yelich to hamstring injury vs. Nationals
Christian Yelich was off to a strong start at the plate this season before leaving Sunday's game early.
Christian Yelich leaves Brewers' game against Nationals with hamstring tightness
Christian Yelich left the Milwaukee Brewers' game against the Washington Nationals on Sunday with tightness in his left hamstring. It wasn't immediately clear how Yelich got hurt. He was the designated hitter and went 0 for 2, hitting grounders each time.
Analysis: Rogers still has more to prove
Morgan Rogers is attracting a lot of attention and the growing expectation is he will leave Aston Villa in the summer. Villa will likely need to sell a star player, regardless of whether they qualify for the Champions League, and Rogers is their best asset - especially with Boubacar Kamara out injured. An impressive World Cup would also strengthen Villa's hand but the England forward needs to show more of a clinical nature throughout the pitch.
Sports Quote of the Day: Muhammad Ali's Confident Affirmation
Muhammad Ali had a timeless quote that helped explain why he was so successful.
North Tahoe Chamber selects Cory Hunt as its new Business Development Manager
KINGS BEACH, Calif. – The North Tahoe Chamber announced that Cory Hunt has been hired as its new Business Development Manager. Responsible for cultivating opportunities for new and emerging businesses in North Tahoe, Hunt will...
Times Opinion: Let’s expel toxic right-wing politics from the Hamilton County Board of Education
Within national politics, we are living in a world dominated by a toxic political environment. While that is severely toned down at the local level, it does seep through into one realm: our schools.
All Things Detroit Day draws shoppers, celebrates small businesses at Eastern Market
The Sheds at Eastern Market were buzzing Sunday as shoppers poured in for All Things Detroit Day, an annual celebration of local small businesses featuring more than 100 vendors offering everything from apparel to food.
Napoli draw at Parma gives Inter chance to put one hand on Serie A title
Napoli's Serie A title defence suffered a blow with Sunday's 1-1 draw at Parma which gave league leaders Inter Milan the chance to move nine points clear.Napoli trail Inter by six points, a gap which could increase following the late match between the Milan giants and Champions League chasers Como.
Black Maternal Health Week highlights disparities, solutions at Hampton Roads conference
Held as part of the national awareness week from April 11 to 17, the conference brought together doctors, nurses, social workers and midwife advocates to address inequities in maternal health care and outcomes.
Pop culture takes center stage at Shenandoah Comic-Con
Warriors, robots, demons and more came out to play at Shenandoah Comic-Con at the Rockingham County Fairgrounds exhibit hall on Saturday.
Fever reportedly re-sign Sophie Cunningham to 1-year contract
NH's Business: NH labor force participation
Fred Kocher sits down with Jessica Williams with the NH Fiscal Policy Institute to talk about data from the 2025 labor force participation in New Hampshire.
Metropolitan champion Hurricanes beat Mammoth 4-1 for 6th win in 7 games
The win puts Carolina within one point of securing the top seed in the Eastern Conference.
Pokemon Champions Battle Pass Season M-2 rewards leaked
Pokémon Champions has already leaked details about its Battle Pass Season M-2 rewards. The next season isn’t expected to start for quite a bit. Pokemon Champions just launched this week, and alongside that, Season M-1 started up. It should be running until May 12, so the next one isn’t expected until at least a month from now. That said, if...
Trey McKenney discusses game-sealing shot in National Championship
At the national championship celebration, Michigan Basketball G Trey McKenney discussed his game-sealing shot vs UConn and how he “blacked out” in the process:
Police remove fuel protesters from Dublin center as disruption over soaring costs continues
Police have broken up a blockade in Dublin by protesters who have disrupted Ireland for a week over the soaring cost of fuel.
Pokemon Champions next Battle Pass contents leak
The Pokemon Company is no stranger to leaks what with the massive Gigaleak and the Terraleak. Now on a far smaller scale dataminer, ChicoEevee, has discovered all 50 levels of Pokemon Champions Battle…
EDITORIAL: Business HQs decamp from Colorado
Grim news last week: For the first time since the pandemic, Colorado’s job market lost 11,700 jobs — contracting at an annual rate of -0.4%. The Centennial State is among 27 states with year-over-year job losses, but a new report from the Colorado Chamber Foundation indicates Colorado-specific trends are at play. And they’re making things […]
EDITORIAL: Business HQs decamp from Colorado
Grim news last week: For the first time since the pandemic, Colorado’s job market lost 11,700 jobs — contracting at an annual rate of -0.4%. The Centennial State is among 27 states with year-over-year job losses, but a new report from the Colorado Chamber Foundation indicates Colorado-specific trends are at play. And they’re making things […]
New Orleans all-metro girls basketball team headlined by state champion from John Curtis
A John Curtis senior headlines the 2026 New Orleans all-metro girls basketball team.
Sutton's predictions: Sunderland v Tottenham
What's Roberto de Zerbi going to do with Tottenham and how will he set them up? The whole situation is just odd, with De Zerbi securing a five-year contract despite only hanging around for more than two years at one of his previous eight clubs. Sunderland's form at the Stadium of Light has dipped a bit since they lost their unbeaten home record against Liverpool in February, but the Black Cats will be buoyant after beating Newcastle last time out.
Today’s Papers – Shocking Milan, Juventus celebrate
La Gazzetta dello SportInter in Como for the Scudetto. Pio must do a LautaroNapoli in Parma with the comeback dream. Conte: ‘Let’s put pressure.’Great LadyWins in Bergamo and narrows the Champio...
Sunderland vs Tottenham Hotspur – Match preview and team news
Roberto De Zerbi makes his Premier League return as Tottenham Hotspur visit Sunderland at the Stadium of Light today.The Italian manager replaces Igor Tudor after a dismal run left Spurs one point abo...
Sooo ... About Last Night
Last night (Sat., April 11, 2026), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) ventured forth to Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida for UFC 327. Was this the deepest numbered event since UFC 300? Maybe Jon Anik was onto something! There were great fights from top to bottom, like Kelvin Gastelum vs. Vicente Luque on the early “Prelims” card. […]
How to watch the 2026 San Antonio Sports All-Star Basketball Game on April 12
More than 100 of the top high school basketball players in and around San Antonio will suit up on April 12.
Cate Blanchett, Bryan Cranston and Paddington Bear are up for prizes at London's Olivier Awards
Cate Blanchett, Bryan Cranston and Paddington Bear are among the stars up for prizes at London’s Olivier Awards on Sunday.
Illinois football hosts Mom’s Weekend practice
CHAMPAIGN, Ill. (WCIA) — Illini football took a break from the traditional spring practice for one that featured a special twist. Amidst mom’s weekend on the U of I campus, players’ moms took to the practice field with their sons for a second straight season. These football families are grateful for the quality time together […]
White Sox Minor League Update: April 11, 2026
Bham walks it off to bring home the only win in the system
Denver Pioneers win 3rd NCAA men's hockey title in 5 years
The Denver Pioneers of the National Collegiate Hockey Conference registered a 2-1 victory over the Wisconsin Badgers to complete the Frozen Four at T-Mobile Arena on Saturday in Las Vegas, the program's third national championship in five years.
Denver defeats Wisconsin to win 11th Frozen Four title
A late goal from Kyle Chyzowski lifted the Pioneers over the Badgers in the NCAA men's hockey championship.
2026 Masters tee times, pairings: Complete schedule, groups, field for Round 4 on Sunday at Augusta National
The quest to win the first major championship of 2026 continues on Saturday at Augusta National Golf Club with Rory McIlroy well out in front
Nearly 100 Colorado businesses have left or scaled back operations since 2019, report finds
A new report from the Colorado Chamber Foundation suggests the state’s weakening competitiveness is driving businesses out of state. Companies are blaming factors like increasing regulations and cost of living for why they’re choosing to...
Chamber of Commerce Presents Achievement Awards
Event also marked 110th of the chamber’s presence in Oswego [caption id=attachment_10469 align=alignright width=450] Abby Waever and Keara Patterson (in the middle) receive the Community Leadership & Legacy Award, presented to The Alberts Group.[/caption] The Greater Oswego-Fulton Chamber of Commerce (GOFCC) on March 4 hosted its 2026 Annual Meeting, presented by Constellation, at the Lake Ontario Event and Conference Center in Oswego. The event’s theme, Rooted in Community. The meeting celebrated the GOFCC’s 110th anniversary in the Oswego community and 10th anniversary of integration with CenterState CEO. The chamber also unveiled a new logo. “I am proud to say the GOFCC has been a force for business success, growth and opportunity, supporting organizations of every size, connecting neighbors and entrepreneurs and ensuring that every voice in Oswego County is heard,” said GOFCC Executive Director Sara Broadwell. The event featured keynote remarks from Novelis’s Kevin Schutt, vice president, manufacturing and production support at Novelis North America. [caption id=attachment_10454 align=alignright width=450] Maria Hudson of Constellation, holding the award, receives the Nancy L. Premo Woman of Distinction Award.[/caption] The GOFCC recognized the following organizations and individuals with achievement awards: • Oswego County Impact & Excellence Award, presented to Oswego County Office of Mobility Management. This award Honors a small business or nonprofit organization that demonstrates outstanding achievement through innovation, growth and measurable positive impact on Oswego County’s economy or quality of life. • Community Leadership & Legacy Award, presented to The Alberts Group. This award recognizes an individual, business or organization whose long-term leadership, investment or philanthropy has significantly advanced the vitality, resilience and future of Oswego County’s communities. • Nancy L. Premo Woman of Distinction Award, presented to Maria Hudson of Constellation. This award honors a woman in business who has made a meaningful impact on her community, inspired others through her leadership, and exemplified the values of service, integrity and empowerment. This award is presented in tribute to the late Nancy Premo, CenterState CEO’s former vice president of Human Resources.
L.A. Times readers celebrate UCLA women's basketball's title win
Times readers cheer UCLA coach Cori Close and players Gabriela Jaquez, Kiki Rice, Lauren Betts, Gianne Kneepkens, Angela Dugalic and Charlisse Leger-Walker.
Salah, Ngumoha ease Liverpool crisis with Fulham win
Liverpool's rising star and departing legend combined to ease the pressure on Arne Slot as goals from teenager Rio Ngumoha and Mohamed Salah beat Fulham 2-0, snapping the Reds' three-game losing streak on Saturday.Salah failed to get on the pitch at all during Liverpool's chastening 2-0 Champions League defeat by Paris Saint-Germain in midweek.
ENTERTAINMENT: WAC hosts Australian Chamber Orchestra
The Australian Chamber Orchestra is premiering “Horizon,” a new work it commissioned from Pulitzer- and Grammy-winning composer John Luther Adams, on its current tour. It includes an 8 p.m. concert Saturday at Fayetteville’s Walton Arts Center
Boom Ball blends baseball, high-energy entertainment for night of family fun in Birmingham
The touring baseball show announced Friday that they’re brining their one-of-a-kind family entertainment to Regions Field.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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